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GLOBALISTICS and GLOBALIZATION STUDIES Global Transformations and Global Future Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev

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GLOBALISTICS and GLOBALIZATION STUDIES Global Transformations and Global Future Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev GLOBALISTICS AND GLOBALIZATION STUDIES Global Transformations and Global Future Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev To cite this version: Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev. GLOBALISTICS AND GLOBAL- IZATION STUDIES Global Transformations and Global Future. 2016, 978-5-7057-5026-9. hprints- 01794187 HAL Id: hprints-01794187 https://hal-hprints.archives-ouvertes.fr/hprints-01794187 Submitted on 17 May 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY Faculty of Global Studies RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF ORIENTAL STUDIES The Eurasian Center for Big History and System Forecasting INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION, SOCIAL AND HUMANITARIAN STUDIES GLOBALISTICS AND GLOBALIZATION STUDIES Global Transformations and Global Future Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey V. Korotayev ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Volgograd ББК 28.02 87.21 Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Global Transformations and Global Future. Yearbook / Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey V. Koro- tayev. – Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2016. – 400 pp. The present volume is the fifth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global Transformations and Global Future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. And our future can all means be global. However, is this statement justified? Indeed, in recent years, many have begun to claim that globalization has stalled, that we are rather dealing with the process of anti-globalization. Will not we find ourselves at some point again in an edifice spanning across the globe, but divided into national apartments, separated by walls of high tariffs and mutual suspicion? Of course, some setbacks are always possible, because the process of globalization cannot develop smoothly. It is a process which is itself emerging from contradictions and is shaped by a new contradiction. They often go much further than underlying systemic changes allow. They break forward, as the vanguard of a victorious army, and then often meet resistance of various social and political forces and may suddenly start to roll back just at the moment when everyone expects their further offensive. We believe that this is what is happening with globalization at present. The yearbook will be interesting to a wide range of researchers, teachers, students and all those who are concerned about global issues. The publication of this volume has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 15-18- 30063 ‘Historical Globalistics: historical evolution, current state and forecast development scenarios for global networks of flows, interactions and communication, global processes, and planetary institutions, the role of Russia and BRICS’). ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Kirova Street, 143, Volgograd, 400079, Russia Printed in Volgograd polygraphic complex “Ofset” Kim Street, 6, Volgograd, 400001, Russia ISBN 978-5-7057-5026-9 © ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2016 Volgograd 2016 Contents Introduction. How Global Can Be Global Future? (by Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey Korotayev) ............................................................................ 5 Part I. Big History and Global History David Baker. 10500. The Darwinian Algorithm and a Possible Candidate for a ‘Unifying Theme’ of Big History ...................................................................................... 10 Ken Baskin. The Dynamics of Evolution: What Complexity Theory Suggests for Big History's Approach to Biological and Cultural Evolution ........................................... 21 Barry Rodrigue. Retrofitting the Future ...................................................................... 43 Daniel Little. Nation, Region, and Globe: Alternative Definitions of Place in World History .................................................................................................................... 48 Julia Zinkina, Andrey Korotayev, and Aleksey Andreev. Mass Primary Education in the Nineteenth Century .................................................................................................. 63 Julia Zinkina, Andrey Korotayev, and Ilya Ilyin. The Nineteenth-Century Origins of the Global Secondary and Higher Education ............................................................... 71 Peter Herrmann, Fan Hong, and Remi Rzepka. Education in an International Set- ting ..................................................................................................................................... 76 Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, and Alexey Andreev. Global History and Future World Order ................................................................................................................................... 93 Part II. Global Demography Jack A. Goldstone. Population Ageing and Global Economic Growth ..................... 111 Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev. Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kon- dratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System ............................................................. 119 Andrey Korotayev, Jack A. Goldstone, Julia Zinkina, Sergey Shulgin, Daria Khaltourina, and Daria Bykanova. Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of the Demographic Future of Russia: Seven Scenarios ............................................................ 139 Ivan Aleshkovski. International Migration and Globalization: Global Trends and Perspectives ..................................................................................................................... 164 Miriam Farhi-Rodrig. Global Migration: A Transnational Problem ........................ 177 Part III. Aspects of Globalization and International Politics Paul A. Smit. Transnational Labour Relations in SADC: Regional Integration or Regional Globalisation? .................................................................................................... 187 4 Globalistics and Globalization Studies Endre Kiss. Constructivity and Destructivity in the Globalization, as a Back- ground of the Problematic of Peace .................................................................................. 203 Stanislav Bilyuga, Alisa Shishkina, Julia Zinkina, and Andrey Korotayev. Global Correlation between GDP Per Capita and the Level of Sociopolitical Destabilization between 1960 and 2014: A Preliminary Quantitative Analysis ....................................... 213 Olga Kornienko. Social and Economic Background of Blending ............................. 220 Oleg Alekseenko and Ilya Ilyin. The Theory of High-Level Process Integration Research and Development of Global Communication Networks .................................. 226 Alexander Lenger and Florian Schumacher. The Social Functions of Sport: A Theoretical Approach to the Interplay of Emerging Powers, National Identity, and Global Sport Events .......................................................................................................... 231 Ilya Ilyin, Stanislav Bilyuga, and Sergey Malkov. The Empirical Analysis of the Voting Results in the UN General Assembly ................................................................... 249 Olga Leonova. Interpretation of the ‘Soft Power’ Concept in the Russian Political Science ............................................................................................................................. 271 Olga Kolesnichenko, Alexander Rozanov, and Liu Debin. The Role of BRICS in Global Politics ................................................................................................................. 277 Part IV. Energy and Climate William R. Thompson. Energy, Kondratieff Waves, Lead Economies, and Their Evolutionary Implications ................................................................................................ 283 Yury Sayamov. Strategic Stability and the Role of the Global Energy Sphere .......... 303 Mohammad Mohabbat Khan and Md. Shahriar Islam. Climate Change Adapta- tion in Developing Countries: Does Globalization Act as a Facilitator? .......................... 309 Vladimir Klimenko and Alexey Tereshin. Shale Gas: An Energy Miracle or a Cli- mate Disaster? .................................................................................................................. 321 Part V. Future and Forecasts Leonid Grinin and Anton Grinin. The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution ........................................................................................................................ 337 Valentina Bondarenko. Providing the Balance of Technological and Social Changes in Real-Time Regime Plus the Economic Growth ............................................ 356 Ilya Ilyin, Arkady Ursul, Tatyana Ursul, and Midegue Dugarova. From Millenni- um Development Goals to Sustainable Development Goals ........................................... 380 Contributors
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