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Globalization.Pdf GLOBALIZATION Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow i GLOBALIZATION Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Edited by Jim Sheffi eld, Victoria University of Wellington Andrey Korotayev Russian State University for the Humanities Leonid Grinin Volgograd Center for Social Research 3810 N 188th Ave Litchfi eld Park, AZ 85340 iii Globalization: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Edited by: Jim Sheffi eld, Andrey Korotayev, & Leonid Grinin Library of Congress Control Number: 2013xxxxxx ISBN: 978-1-938158-08-7 Copyright © 2013 3810 N 188th Ave, Litchfi eld Park, AZ 85340, USA All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored on a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfi lming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the publisher. Printed in the United States of America iv v vi ABOUT THE EDITORS Jim Sheffi eld is a systems theorist at the School of Management at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. In this capacity and his previous role as Director of the Decision Support Centre, University of Auckland he has designed, implemented and evaluated more than 100 action research initiatives. Major projects focussed on the facilitation of national policy in response to globalization. Jim has published widely in the systems perspectives that underpin aspects of globalization, especially those related to decision making, knowledge management, systemic development and ethical inquiry. He has over 150 scholarly publications and is coeditor of the Journal of Globalization Studies. He serves on the editorial board of journals and is active in professional societies, including the International Society for the Systems Sciences (ISSS). He is the author of several books, and editor of Systemic Development and My Decisive Moment. Andrey V. Korotayev is Senior Research Professor of the Oriental Institute and Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor and the Head of the Department of Modern Asian and African Studies, Russian State University for the Humanities, Full Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies of the Moscow State University, and the Head of Laboratory of the Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks as the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow. Together with Leonid Grinin he edits the Journal of Globalization Studies and the Social Evolution and History. He is the author of over 300 scholarly publications, including such monographs as Ancient Yemen (1995); World Religions and Social Evolution of the Old World Oikumene Civilizations: A Cross-Cultural Perspective (2004); Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth (2006); and Modeling the World Dynamics (2012). Leonid E. Grinin is a Russian sociologist, political anthropologist, and a scholar of historical trends and future studies. He has PhD and is Senior Research Professor at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and serves as Deputy Director of the Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting (Russian Academy of Sciences). He is also coeditor of the Journal of Globalization Studies and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Age of Globalization (in Russian). His academic interests are connected with the analysis of problems of globalization and modernization. His published research includes topics such as forecasting world political change, social-economic development and social evolution. He has also published on the theory of historical process; and the evolution of statehood. He is the author of more than 360 scholarly publications in Russian and English, including 25 monographs. vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The editors would like to express their thanks to the many authors who contributed their research to this monograph. We would also like to thank our technical editors, Elena Emanova, Kseniya Uhova, and Elena Nikiforova, who were responsible for the preparation of the papers and the cover. Finally we express our gratitude to Kurt Richardson and all the others at Emergent Publications for their guidance and support throughout the publishing process. viii CONTENTS GLOBALIZATION AS A LINK BETWEEN THE PAST AND THE FUTURE Jim Sheffi eld, Andrey Korotayev, & Leonid Grinin ORGANIZATION ....................................................................................................... XX PART I GLOBALIZATION IN HISTORY ........................................................... XX PART II CONTEMPORARY GLOBALIZATION ..............................................XXIII PART III GLOBALIZATION IN THE FUTURE ............................................... XXVII CHAPTER 1—THE ORIGINS OF GLOBALIZATION Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev INTRODUCTION: THE AIMS OF THE ARTICLE ............................................. 2 I THE AFROEURASIAN WORLD-SYSTEM: A GENERAL OVERVIEW ........... 8 A brief overview of the main phases of the Afroeurasian world-system’s evolution ................................................................... 11 II WORLD-SYSTEM LINKS AND PROCESSES .................................................. 14 The systemic character of the world-system processes.......................... 14 The most important types of world-system links ................................... 16 III THE WORLD SYSTEM GENESIS AND TRANSFORMATIONS: A DETAILED ANALYSIS .................................................................................. 17 Origins of the Afroeurasian world-system .............................................. 17 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER 2—THE LEAD ECONOMY SEQUENCE IN WORLD POLITICS (FROM SUNG CHINA TO THE UNITED STATES): SELECTED COUNTERFACTUALS William R. Thompson COUNTERFACTUALS AND HISTORICAL SCRIPTS ............................................... 33 The Lead Economy Sequence (from Sung China to the United States) ............................................ 35 EIGHT COUNTERFACTUALS .................................................................................... 38 CONCLUSION............................................................................................................. 50 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 52 ix CHAPTER 3—CONTINUITIES AND TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE EVOLUTION OF WORLD-SYSTEMS Christopher Chase-Dunn THE COMPARATIVE EVOLUTIONARY WORLD-SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE ........ 60 TIME HORIZONS ....................................................................................................... 63 50,000 YEARS ............................................................................................................. 64 5,000 YEARS ............................................................................................................... 65 500 YEARS ................................................................................................................. 66 TRANSFORMATIONS BETWEEN MODES ............................................................. 67 STAGES OF WORLD CAPITALIST DEVELOPMENT: SYSTEMIC CYCLES OF ACCUMULATION ..................................................... 68 ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION ................................................................................. 69 The Financial Meltdown of 2007-2008 ..................................................... 71 The World Revolution of 20xx .................................................................. 72 The Pink Tide ............................................................................................... 73 The Meltdown and the Countermovements ............................................ 77 The Arab Spring .......................................................................................... 78 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................... 79 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................. 80 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 80 CHAPTER 4—GEOPOLITICAL CONDITIONS OF INTERNATIONALISM, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND WORLD LAW Randall Collins THE MILITARY-CENTERED GEOPOLITICAL THEORY OF STATE POWER ........................................................................... 90 THE GEOPOLITICS OF WAR IN AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, AND PAKISTAN ........ 93 THE GEOPOLITICS OF INTERNATIONAL COALITIONS ...................................... 98 STATE BUREAUCRATIZATION AS BASIS FOR RULE OF LAW ........................................................................................ 100 SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR EXPANSION OF WORLD LAW .............................. 105 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 107 x CHAPTER 5—CONTEMPORARY GLOBALIZATION AND NEW CIVILIZATIONAL FORMATIONS Shmuel N. Eisenstadt INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 112 CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENAS AND IN THE CONSTITUTION OF HEGEMONIES .................................................... 114 INTERCIVILIZATIONAL SETTINGS— ANTI-GLOBALIZATION MOVEMENTS AND TRANSFORMATION OF MOVEMENTS AND IDEOLOGIES OF PROTEST .................................. 115 REFERENCES ...........................................................................................................
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