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Strukturanalyse Und Perspektiven Des Wirtschaftsstandortes Baden-Württemberg Im Nationalen Und Internationalen Vergleich

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Strukturanalyse Und Perspektiven Des Wirtschaftsstandortes Baden-Württemberg Im Nationalen Und Internationalen Vergleich Strukturanalyse und Perspektiven des Wirtschaftsstandortes Baden-Württemberg im nationalen und internationalen Vergleich Abschlussbericht vorgelegt von • Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW) e.V. • Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW) in Zusammenarbeit mit • Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI) • ifo Institut – Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V. Tübingen, Mannheim, München und Karlsruhe, im Oktober 2017 Beteiligte Institute und Ansprechpartner Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW) e.V. an der Universität Tübingen Ob dem Himmelreich 1 72074 Tübingen http://www.iaw.edu/ Ansprechpartner: Prof. Dr. Bernhard Boockmann Telefon: 07071 9896-20 Telefax: 07071 9896-99 E-Mail: [email protected] Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW) Mannheim L 7, 1 68161 Mannheim Ansprechpartner: Dr. Christian Rammer ifo Institut- Leibnitz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V. Poschingerstr. 5 81679 München Ansprechpartner: Prof. Dr. Gabriel Felbermayr Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI, Karlsruhe Breslauer Str. 48 76139 Karlsruhe Ansprechpartner: Dr. Christian Lerch Verfasser und Verfasserinnen dieses Berichts Marius Berger Bernhard Boockmann Gabriel Felbermayr Charlotte Klempt Andreas Koch Wilhelm Kohler Christian Lerch Peter Neuhäusler Christian Rammer Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis .................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Hintergrund, Aufgabenstellung und Zielsetzung ............................................................................. 7 2 Analyse von Basisindikatoren zur Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ............................................................... 8 2.1 Konzeption ............................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und wirtschaftlicher Wohlstand ................................................ 9 2.2.1 Entwicklung des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts pro Einwohner ................................. 9 2.2.2 Produktivitätsentwicklung ........................................................................................ 13 2.2.3 Einkommen und Einkommensverteilung .................................................................. 17 2.3 Preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit .......................................................................................... 23 2.3.1 Entwicklung der Lohnstückkosten ............................................................................ 24 2.3.2 Realer effektiver Wechselkurs .................................................................................. 28 2.3.3 Entwicklung der Energiepreise .................................................................................. 31 2.3.4 Besteuerung .............................................................................................................. 35 2.3.5 Einfluss der preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auf die Realwirtschaft .................... 39 2.4 Technologische Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ................................................................................. 40 2.4.1 Forschung- und Entwicklungsausgaben .................................................................... 41 2.4.2 Innovationsausgaben ................................................................................................ 47 2.4.3 Innovationserfolg: Innovatorenquote ....................................................................... 49 2.4.4 Innovationserfolg: Umsatzanteile mit neuen Produkten.......................................... 50 2.4.5 Gewerbliche Schutzrechte ........................................................................................ 53 2.4.6 Fazit zur technologischen Leistungsfähigkeit ............................................................ 56 3 Die Außenwirtschaft Baden-Württembergs: Internationaler Handel und Auslandsdirektinvestitionen .......................................................................................................... 58 3.1 Außenwirtschaftliche Verflechtung Baden-Württembergs ................................................... 58 3.1.1 Regionale Struktur des Außenhandels ...................................................................... 59 3.1.2 Güterstruktur des internationalen Handels .............................................................. 61 3.1.3 Bruttohandel versus Wertschöpfungshandel ........................................................... 68 3.1.4 Schlussfolgerungen ................................................................................................... 71 3.2 Tendenzen in der internationalen Handelspolitik ................................................................. 72 3.2.1 Zölle ........................................................................................................................... 74 3.2.2 Regionale Handelsabkommen .................................................................................. 78 3.2.3 Nicht-tarifäre Maßnahmen (NTM) ............................................................................ 80 3.2.4 Barrieren im Dienstleistungshandel .......................................................................... 83 3.2.5 Schlussfolgerungen und mögliche Auswirkungen auf Baden-Württemberg ............ 85 3.3 Numerische Simulation von Szenarien des Protektionismus ................................................ 86 3.3.1 Hintergrund ............................................................................................................... 86 3.3.2 Szenarien handelspolitischer Veränderungen .......................................................... 88 3.3.3 Simulationsmodell..................................................................................................... 90 3.3.4 Simulationsergebnisse zur US-Handelspolitik ........................................................... 92 3.3.4 Simulationsergebnisse zum Brexit ............................................................................ 97 3.3.5 Schlussfolgerungen ................................................................................................. 101 3.4 Die Auslandsdirektinvestitionen Baden-Württembergs ...................................................... 103 3.4.1 Konzeptionelle Vorbemerkungen ........................................................................... 103 3.4.2 Nützen multinationale Unternehmen den Gastländern? ....................................... 106 3.4.3 Investitionsbarrieren und Investitionsabkommen .................................................. 107 3.4.4 Die ADI Baden-Württembergs im innerdeutschen Vergleich ................................. 110 3.4.5 Aktive und passive ADI nach Wirtschaftszweigen .................................................. 113 3.4.6 Bestimmungsgründe der passiven ADI Baden-Württembergs ............................... 118 3.4.7 Schlussfolgerungen ................................................................................................. 123 4 Auswirkungen von technologischen Veränderungen .................................................................. 125 4.1 Veränderungen der Wettbewerbsposition von Automobilindustrie und Maschinen bau .. 125 4.1.1 Untersuchungsansatz .............................................................................................. 125 4.1.2 Bedeutung von Automobilbau und Maschinenbau für die baden-württembergische Wirtschaft ...................................................................... 127 4.1.3 Internationalisierung im Automobil- und Maschinenbau: Verlagerungsverhalten und Auslandsaktivitäten ................................................... 130 4.1.4 Tertiarisierung im Automobil- und Maschinenbau: Innovationen mit Dienstleistungen und digitale Geschäftsmodelle ................................................... 140 4.1.5 Veränderungen in der Automobilindustrie ............................................................. 146 4.1.6 Veränderungen im Maschinenbau .......................................................................... 156 4.1.7 Zusammenfassung .................................................................................................. 161 4.2 Identifizierung von Wachstumsfeldern im Technologieportfolio ........................................ 162 4.2.1 Daten und Methoden .............................................................................................. 164 4.2.2 Technologietrends und -strukturen in Baden-Württemberg.................................. 165 4.2.3 Wachstumsfelder .................................................................................................... 170 4.2.4 Vergleich Baden-Württembergs mit den Patentanmeldungen Chinas .................. 172 4.2.5 Globale Innovationen .............................................................................................. 175 4.2.6 Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse zu Wachstumsfeldern ...................................... 179 4.3 Die Entwicklung des Dienstleistungssektors ........................................................................ 180 4.3.1 Wirtschaftliche Kennzahlen und Indikatoren ......................................................... 182 4.3.2 Baden-Württemberg im internationalen Vergleich ................................................ 188 4.3.3 Die Schnittstelle von Dienstleistungen und industriellem Bereich ........................
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