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January 18, 2021 January 18, 2021 January 18, 2021 US equities declined on the back of disappointing economic data releases. Asian equities slightly rose amid stronger-than-expected exports in China. European equities fell due to worries over tightening restrictions in Europe. Global oil prices were mixed as concerns of expanding lockdown restrictions in China capped gains. Global Equities US equities fell amid disappointing labor data after initial claims for state unemployment benefit rose for the week ended January 9 to 965k from 1.0% 784k on January 1. This was followed by a weaker-than-expected retail sales MoM which was expected at 0.00% but came out at -0.7% in 0.20% December. The DJIA closed at 30,814.26 (-0.91% WoW), while the S&P 0.0% 500 closed at 3,768.25 (-1.48% WoW). Asian equities mildly rose after China posted a record high trade surplus driven by stronger-than-expected exports in December 2020. However, the gains were capped by the negative sentiment on expanding lockdown -1.0% -0.76% restrictions in China as the number of COVID-19 cases increased. The -0.91% MSCI APxJ closed at 696.88 (+0.20% WoW). European equities slid on the back of worries on the slow distribution of -1.40% -1.48% -2.0% the vaccines and possible tightening of restrictions in Europe due to the MSCI MSCI MSCI DJIA S&P 500 new variant of the COVID-19 virus. The MSCI Europe closed at 135.20 (- 0.76% WoW). World Europe Asia ex- Japan US Treasuries German Bunds 2.000 1.873 0.000 -0.133 8-Jan 15-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 1.833 -0.340 -0.126 1.115 -0.543 -0.324 1.000 -0.500 -0.637 1.084 -0.720 -0.734 0.483 -0.519 -0.655 -0.701 0.081 0.133 -0.730 0.071 0.450 0.000 -1.000 0.133 0.0763m 0.0816m 2y 5y 10y 30y 1y 2y 5y 10y 20y 30y US Treasury yields declined following disappointing US jobless claims data and weak retail sales data. Moreover, investors digested President -elect Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Japanese Government Bonds economic stimulus plan. On average, yields fell 1.67 bps, with the 10Y closing at 1.0835% (-3.18 bps WoW). 0.500 0.4140 German bund yields fell amid contraction of Germany's economy due to the impact of coronavirus, GDP NSA YoY came at -5.0% for 2020 from 0.6% reported in 2019.This was 8-Jan 15-Jan also driven by fears on the spread of the new variant of coronavirus and . The 10Y yield 0.300 0.4140 closed at -0.54% (-2.40 bps WoW). Japanese bond yields mildly fell on the back of concerns over the expanding lockdown 0.0320 restrictions in China due to an increase in COVID-19 infections. On average, yields fell 0.33 0.100 bps WoW with the 10Y closing at 0.031% (-0.10 bps WoW). -0.088 -0.1200 -0.1270 -0.11 Key events that transpired during the week: 0.0310 The December US Retail Sales Advance MoM came out weaker-than-expected at -0.7% in -0.100 December from -1.1% reported in November, expectation was at 0.00%. The Retail Sales -0.102 -0.1310 -0.1260 -0.11 Ex Auto MoM also disappointed at -1.4% in December from -0.9% in November. -0.300 The US initial jobless claims disappointed to 965k reported on January 9 from 787k reported on the first day of January, this level was last seen in August during the surge of COVID-19. -0.500 3m 6m 2y 5y 10y 30y Commodities Global oil prices were mixed as expanding lockdown restrictions in China and surging COVID-19 cases in Europe placed concerns on demand. Brent oil $bbl 15-Jan-2021 % Change closed at $55.10 per barrel (-1.59% WoW), while WTI crude closed at $52.36 per barrel (+0.23% WoW). Brent 55.10 -1.59% WTI 52.36 0.23% BBG Commodity index 80.46 1.00% This material, which is strictly for information purposes only, is for your sole use, does not constitute a recommendation or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any financial product. Any information is subject to change without notice and BPI is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to the matter contained in this document. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss that may arise (whether direct or consequential) from any use of the information contained herein. All funds managed by BPI Asset Management and affiliates are Trust and/or Investment Management Funds, which do not carry any guarantee of income or principal, and are NOT covered by the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. BPI Investment Funds are valued daily using the marked-to-market method. January 18, 2021 Local equities declined on poor economic data. Local fixed income yields were mixed but declined overall amid coronavirus concerns. The Philippine peso mildly strengthened as Fitch reaffirms investment grade for Philippines. Local equities slipped on poor economic data as Overseas Filipino Workers’ remittances came in at $2.64 billion for November (+0.1% YoY) and as US jobless claims surged to its highest levels since August 2020 at 965,000. PSEi Snapshot Vaccine news helped buoy the index as the vaccine of Pfizer Inc. was granted Total Net Foreign Flows (USD Mn) PCOMP emergency use authorization by the Philippine Food and Drug Administration. The PSEi closed at 7,238.46 (-0.71% WoW). 50 7,400 Gains were led by Globe Telecom (PSE ticker: GLO; +3.96% WoW), First Gen Corp. (FGEN +3.06%), and Security Bank Corp. (SECB; +2.91%). DMCI Holdings, Inc. (DMC, -3.89%), Aboitiz Power, Corp (AP; -3.52%), and Ayala 0 Land, Inc (ALI; -3.37%) were the laggards of the week. -0.71% WoW; Key events that transpired during the week: Net Foreign Selling: San Miguel Corp. (PSE Ticker: SMC), after completing Skyway Stage 3, will $4.51 Mn begin the construction of Pasig River Expressway (PAREX) in February. -50 7,200 PAREX spans across Pasig River, starting from Radial Road 10 in Manila to 1/8 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 Circumferential Road 6 in Taguig. The expressway is expected to cut travel time to 10-15 minutes from the current 2 hours. Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (PSE Ticker: MPI) secured a 5-year $130 PSEi Top/Bottom Performers million loan from Mizuho Bank to help finance its projects this year. The GLO 3.96% company is expected to have Php 80 billion in capital expenditures for projects in hospitality, logistics, and water. FGEN 3.06% SECB 2.91% ALI -3.37% AP -3.52% DMC -3.89% Local Bond Market Movements -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Local fixed income yields were mixed but declined overall on COVID-19 developments as total new cases rose to 498,691 (+2.65% WoW). Also, the Philippines 4.0 confirmed its first case of the new COVID-19 variant from the UK. Investors also looked 3.7 at developments surrounding new legislations including the Corporate Recovery and 3.4 2.996 3.005 3.012 3.013 3.006 3.000 Tax Incentives for Enterprises bill and Anti-Money Laundering. On average, yields 3.1 declined by 0.95 bps WoW, led by the 2Y which fell by 3.7 bps. 2.8 Key events that happened during the week: 2.5 Fitch Ratings affirmed its investment-grade credit rating of BBB with a stable outlook 2.2 for the Philippines. This is on the back of the country’s modest government debt levels 1.9 compared to peers, sufficient external buffers, and strong medium-term growth 1.6 prospects. However, it noted that the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic for 1.3 1.867 1.869 1.861 1.865 1.858 1.830 the Philippines in 2020 was more significant than initially expected due to the impact of 1.0 the local infection rate and policy measures to contain the virus spread. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin Diokno announced that the 1/8 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 benchmark interest rates will be kept low to support economic recovery amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The central bank may also potentially cut the reserve requirement 2Y BVAL 10Y BVAL of banks to encourage lending and boost economic activities. In 2020, the policy rates The Philippine peso slightly strengthened as Fitch reaffirmed its were reduced by a total of 200 basis points which brought the overnight reverse investment grade for the Philippines at BBB and as the government repurchase, lending, and deposit rates to 2%, 2.5%, and 1.5%, respectively. announced its vaccine deals with various pharmaceutical Foreign Exchange companies. The USD/PHP pair ended at 48.065. (-0.05% WoW). USD/PHP Previous Close 01/08/21 48.088 The Euro weakened as COVID-19 cases continued to increase Closing 01/15/21 48.065 despite the roll-out of the vaccine. Fears also heightened due to the possible tightening of the lockdown restrictions due to the new EUR/USD Previous Close 01/08/21 1.2218 variant of the coronavirus. The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.2082 (- 1.11 % WoW).
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