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Decision Support for Seascape Conservation and Ecosystem-Based Marine Management in the Northern Baltic Sea

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Decision Support for Seascape Conservation and Ecosystem-Based Marine Management in the Northern Baltic Sea Decision support for seascape conservation and ecosystem-based marine management in the northern Baltic Sea ELINA VIRTANEN ACADEMIC DISSERTATION To be presented, with the permission of the Faculty of Science of the University of Helsinki, for public examination in banquet room 303, Unioninkatu 33, on 19th of October 2020, at 12 o´clock. DEPARTMENT OF GEOSCIENCES AND GEOGRAPHY A87 / HELSINKI 2020 DEPARTMENT OF GEOSCIENCES AND GEOGRAPHY A87 © Elina Virtanen (synopsis) © Frontiers (Paper I and III) © EGU Publications (Paper II) © Elsevier (Paper IV) Cover photo: Juuso Haapaniemi Author´s address: Elina Virtanen Marine Research Centre Finnish Environment Institute Latokartanonkaari 11 00790 Helsinki, Finland Supervised by: Research Director Atte Moilanen Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki Reviewed by: Professor Erik Bonsdorff Environmental and Marine Biology Faculty of Science and Engineering Åbo Akademi University Senior research scientist Matt White Biodiversity Division, Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Australia Opponent: Professor Mary Wisz Section for Ocean Sustainability, Governance and Management World Maritime University Senior scientist at National Institute of Aquatic Resources Section for Ecosystem-Based Marine Management Technical University of Denmark ISSN-L 1798-7911 ISSN 1798-7911 (print) ISBN 978-951-51-6576-3 (paperback) ISBN 978-951-51-6577-0 (pdf) http://ethesis.helsinki.fi Unigrafia Oy, Helsinki 2020 2 “No blue, no green.” Sylvia Earle DEPARTMENT OF GEOSCIENCES AND GEOGRAPHY A87 Virtanen E., 2020. Decision Support for Seascape Conservation and Ecosystem-Based Marine Management in the Northern Baltic Sea. University of Helsinki, Department of Geosciences and Geography A87. Unigrafia Oy, Helsinki. 54 pages, 4 figures and 2 tables. Abstract Marine ecosystems are degrading around marine management. The role of the world at an unprecedented rate. Loss of management in sustaining marine biodiversity, population declines, invasion biodiversity is investigated and the of non-indigenous species, and change in applicability of methods developed in community composition are apparent in all terrestrial realm to marine environments is marine ecosystems. Various policies at evaluated. multiple management levels address these The case studies are located in the challenges with specific targets for good northern Baltic Sea, where multiple ecological and environmental status of stressors threaten marine biodiversity. The marine areas. While various policies, work relies on extensive species inventory directives and strategies are applicable at data from 140,000 underwater sites, global and regional levels, threats facing collected by the Finnish Inventory marine ecosystems in coastal areas are more Programme for the Underwater Marine localized. Thus, to achieve effective results, Environment (VELMU). Statistical conservation and management actions modelling was used in case studies (1) and should be designed and addressed locally, (4) to explain the distribution of species, and and carefully targeted to maximize cost- further in case studies (2) and (3) in efficiency and benefits for the marine describing hypoxia probabilities and the ecosystem. occurrence of ferromanganese concretions, In this thesis, four case studies are respectively. Further, key areas for developed which demonstrate how spatially conservation were identified with spatial explicit analyses can support seascape prioritization in case study (1). conservation, sustainable use of marine Based on the results, current marine areas, as well as effective management protected areas (MPAs) leave almost three- actions: (1) locate key areas for quarters of ecologically important species conservation, (2) pinpoint areas for effective occurrence areas unprotected. This nutrient abatement, (3) identify locations for highlights the need to further develop marine mineral extraction, and (4) estimate current MPA network, and the role of spatial potential future changes in key communities planning in guiding the allocation of marine with the projected declines in marine areas to human activities. Knowledge of environment. This thesis aims to show how unprotected key areas can be further utilized extensive data combined with appropriate to promote private seascape conservation spatial analysis paths together with cross- and sustainable use of marine areas. In case discplinary marine science can support study (2), areas naturally prone to hypoxia seascape conservation and ecosystem-based development were identified with spatial 2 analyses, borrowing concepts and to take place also in the Baltic Sea. Results methodologies from landscape ecology. The of case studies (1) and (3) can guide approach developed can be used to detrimental mining activities to ecologically optimally target nutrient abatement less valuable areas, where abundant measures to where they are most likely to be concretions can be found. efficient, as well as explain why some areas Spatially explicit analyses described in are more or less immune to nutrient case studies (1)–(4) can provide valuable abatement actions already taken. Case study support for seascape conservation and (4) further emphasizes that some areas ecosystem-based management and can give would benefit more from nutrient abatement further guidance for sustainable use of measures than others. Case study (3) marine areas. Finally, efficient management demonstrated that marine minerals, namely of marine areas requires the integration of ferromanganese concretions, are more local management actions into wider policy widespread than previously anticipated. As processes. Ecosystem-based marine spatial concretions hold high quantities of minerals planning needs to adopt place-based targeted by the emerging seabed mining management strategies and decisions that industry, there may be economic are actionable at various spatial scales and opportunities for such extraction activities can be implemented locally. Keywords: ecosystem-based management, spatial prioritization, statistical modelling, species distribution modelling (SDM), seascape ecology, Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), systematic conservation planning (SCP), hypoxia, ferromanganese concretions 3 DEPARTMENT OF GEOSCIENCES AND GEOGRAPHY A87 Tiivistelmä Meriekosysteemien tila heikkenee kehitettyjen työkalujen käytettävyyttä kiihtyvällä tahdilla ympäri maailman. Jo nyt meriympäristössä. kaikissa maailman merissä monimuotoisuus Tapaustutkimukset sijoittuvat pohjoi- hupenee, populaatiot pienenevät, vieraslajit selle Itämerelle, jossa meriympäristössä leviävät ja lajien yhteisörakenteessa kertaantuvat paineet uhkaavat meriluonnon tapahtuu muutoksia. Näitä haasteita monimuotoisuutta. Tutkimukset nojaavat ratkotaan monella eri poliittisella tasolla, ja laajaan vedenalaiseen inventointiaineistoon meren hyvälle ekologiselle tilalle pyritään 140,000 näytepisteeltä, jotka on kerätty asettamaan selkeitä tavoitteita. Monet Suomen vedenalaisen meriluonnon direktiivit, säädökset ja linjaukset ovat monimuotoisuuden inventointiohjelmassa globaaleja ja alueellisia, vaikka (VELMU). Tilastollista mallinnusta meriekosysteemejä kohtaavat uhat, käytettiin tapaustutkimuksissa (1) ja (4), erityisesti rannikolla, ovat hyvin paikallisia. joissa mallinnettiin lajien levinneisyyttä, ja Parhaiden tulosten saavuttamiseksi edelleen tapaustutkimuksissa (2) ja (3), direktiivien ja säädösten toimeenpanon joissa kuvattiin vastaavasti hapettomuuden pitäisi olla paikallisesti suunniteltuja ja todennäköisyyksiä ja mereisten mine- huolellisesti kohdennettuja siten, että raalien, rautamangaanisaostumien esiinty- merien käytön kustannustehokkuus ja mistä. Lisäksi tapaustutkimuksessa (1) meriekosysteemien säilyvyys voitaisiin tunnistettiin suojelulle tärkeitä alueita turvata. spatiaalisen suojelupriorisoinnin avulla. Tässä väitöskirjassa osoitetaan neljän Tulosten perusteella nykyiset tapaustutkimuksen keinoin, miten paikal- merisuojelualueet jättävät melkein kolme lisesti räätälöidyt spatiaaliset analyysit neljäsosaa ekologisesti merkittävien lajien voivat tukea tehokasta meren suojelua ja esiintymisalueista suojelematta. Tämä hallintaa: (1) paikallistamalla suojelun korostaa tarvetta kehittää edelleen nykyistä avainalueet, (2) osoittamalla alueet merensuojelualueiden verkostoa sekä tehokkaalle ravinteiden vähentämiselle, (3) aluesuunnittelun roolia toimintojen tunnistamalla kohteet mereisten mineraalien sijoittelussa merialueilla. Suojelematta louhinnalle ja (4) arvioimalla mahdolliset jääneitä alueita voidaan suositella muutokset avainyhteisöissä heikkenevän suojeltavaksi yksityisillä suojelualueilla ja meren tilan myötä. Tämä väitöskirja ottaa huomioon meren kestävässä käytössä. osoittaa, miten laajat aineistot ja spatiaaliset Toisessa tapaustutkimuksessa tunnistettiin analyysit yhdessä poikkitieteellisen luonnollisesti hapettomia alueita, lainaten merentutkimuksen kanssa voivat tukea käsitteitä ja menetelmiä maisema- meren suojelua ja ekosysteemilähtöistä ekologiasta. Tällä lähestymistavalla voidaan meren käytön hallintaa, ja mikä rooli merien kohdentaa toimenpiteitä ravinteiden käytön suunnittelulla on meren vähentämiseen alueille, joista niistä on monimuotoisuuden ylläpitämisessä. eniten hyötyä, ja toisaalta selittää miksi Väitöskirjan tavoitteena on myös arvioida jotkin alueet ovat immuuneja jo tehdyille alun perin terrestriselle puolelle vähentämistoimenpiteille. Neljännessä 4 tapaustutkimuksessa myös esitettiin, miten toisaalta
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