Report of the EXPERT MEETING on CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS for MEDITERRANEAN and BLACK SEA FISHERIES

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FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Report

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Report of the EXPERT MEETING ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR MEDITERRANEAN AND BLACK SEA FISHERIES

Rome, 4−6 December 2017

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Report No. 1233 FIAF/R1233 (En)

Report of the

EXPERT MEETING ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR MEDITERRANEAN AND BLACK SEA FISHERIES

Rome, 4–6 December 2017

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2018

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PREPARATION OF THIS DOCUMENT

This document is the report of the Expert Meeting on Climate Change Implications for Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries, held at the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 4–6 December 2017.

The meeting was organized to provide technical support in the development of an adaptation strategy to cope with the potential effects of climate change on fisheries, in the framework of the GFCM Mid-term strategy (2017–2020) towards the sustainability of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea Fisheries. The expert meeting was financially supported by FAO Regular Programme, GFCM and the WWF.

FAO. 2018. Report of the Expert Meeting on Climate Change Implications for Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries. Rome, 4 to 6 December 2017 . Fisheries and Aquaculture Report No. 1233. Rome, Italy.

ABSTRACT

The Expert Meeting on Climate Change Implications for Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries, was held at the GFCM, Rome, 4–6 December 2017, with the objective to provide technical support the development of an adaptation strategy to cope with the potential effects of climate change on fisheries, in the framework of the GFCM Mid-term strategy (2017–2020) towards the sustainability of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea Fisheries. The meeting was attended by experts working on Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries and experts engaged in the assessment of projected impacts of climate change to the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The meeting reviewed the existing information on the observed and expected impacts of climate change on Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries, as well as the most relevant elements on vulnerability and the existing and potential adaptation measures. Agreement was reached on the need to enhance the knowledge on the implications of climate change to fisheries in the region and to identify options to cope with the expected impacts. In this regard, the meeting elaborated elements of a methodology to assess risks and vulnerabilities of fisheries to climate change. A roadmap for the review, endorsement and application of the methodology was elaborated aiming at contributing to the elaboration of regional climate change adaptation strategy in the mid-term.

CONTENTS

Page

BACKGROUND ...... 1 OPENING OF THE MEETING AND ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE SESSION ...... 2 OBJECTIVES OF THE MEETING ...... 3 REVISION OF STATE OF THE ART ...... 3 EXISTING AND RECOMMENDED ADAPTATION MEASURES TO COPE WITH CLIMATE EFFECTS ON FISHERIES ...... 6 METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS THE RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES ...... 7 ROADMAP TOWARDS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY TO CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON FISHERIES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THE BLACK SEA ...... 8 CLOSURE OF THE MEETING ...... 9

APPENDIXES

I. Agenda of the meeting…………………………………………… ……………………. . 10 II. List of participants………………………………………………………………………. 11 III. Future climate projections for Mediterranean and Black Sea………………………… ….13 IV. Generic matrices of climate change drivers and the expected impacts/implications to fisheries in selected Mediterranean sub-regions…………… ………………………. ……16 V. Generic matrix of climate change drivers and the expected impacts/implications to fisheries in the Black Sea…………………………………………………………… ….. 22 VI. Overview of the methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea to the effects of climate change …………………………… 2 5 VII. Abstracts of expert meeting contributions…………………………………………… …. 37 VIII. Background document on the climate change implications for Mediterranean Sea fisheries……………………………………………… ……………………………… ….. 53 IX. Background document on the climate change implications for Black Sea fisheries…. 93

BACKGROUND

1. A variety of fishing activities have taken place in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea since ancient times. The relatively small volume, semi-enclosed nature and geographical location of the Mediterranean and Black Sea, as well as the characteristic of its ecosystems and species assemblages favoured the appearance of multispecies fisheries, in which the resources are shared among fleets from different countries. Fisheries in the region have an annual production of roughly 1.5 million tonnes and include a variety of benthic and pelagic fish stocks, molluscs and crustaceans. The fishery sector employs several hundred thousand people and supplies seafood products with an estimated minimum value (first landing sale) of more than USD 3 billion.

2. However, Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries face many threats and challenges, with most stocks suffering overfishing and ecosystems being affected by pollution and habitat degradation, as well as the appearance and expansion of non-indigenous species. In addition to these challenges, the Mediterranean and Black seas are considered among the areas of the planet that could be most affected by climate change. Climate change projections in the area include scenarios resulting in relatively large temperature increase, a decrease in precipitation and an increase in frequency and intensity of severe droughts and heatwaves. These changes are expected to interact with other ecosystem stressors as described above, and altogether generate changes in the marine ecosystem, as well as in current fisheries and aquaculture activities.

3. Within this context, Mediterranean and Black Sea countries, in the framework of the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and with the strong support of organizations such as the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), decided to include the development of an adaptation strategy to cope with the potential effects of invasive species and climate change on fisheries as a priority within their Mid-term strategy (2017–2020) towards the sustainability of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea Fisheries . This decision is in line with other international commitments, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as well as with the strategic view of FAO, which has been raising awareness on the potential interaction between climate change and fisheries and aquaculture, and providing technical advice on these issues.

4. In order to advance towards the goal set in the mid-term strategy, the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, the GFCM Secretariat and WWF organized a technical meeting to compile the current knowledge on the potential effects of climate change on Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries, as well as to agree on a methodology and a roadmap to provide advice to coastal states towards the assessment of vulnerabilities and the adoption of strategies to address the potential challenges of climate change on fisheries.

5. This document summarizes the discussion that took place within the Expert meeting on Climate change implications for Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries organized in Rome on the 4–6 of December 2017 and includes background technical documents summarizing the main climate change implications for Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries, abstracts of all presentations made, as well as a preliminary proposal for the assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries to climate change.

OPENING OF THE MEETING AND ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE SESSION

6. The Expert Meeting on Climate Change Implications for Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries was held in the FAO General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) headquarters in Rome, Italy, from 4 to 6 of December 2017.

7. The Agenda of the meeting is shown in Appendix I and the list of participants of the meeting is shown in Appendix II.

8. Mr Manuel Barange, FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources Division Director, opened the meeting by congratulating the organizers for the initiative and informing participants of the main areas of work of FAO on fisheries management and climate adaptation. Three areas of work were highlighted: the implementation of field projects in various parts of the world, which are providing capacity building on fisheries adaptation to climate change; awareness raising in international fora about the importance and implications of climate change to the fisheries sector; and the compilation of knowledge and experiences on the impacts and adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. With regards to the latter, he informed participants of the ongoing preparation of an updated version of the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 530 on Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture. The publication will have a specific chapter on the Mediterranean and Black Sea, which will benefit from the discussions held in the meeting, and also a whole section on adaptation policies to inform decision-makers on tools to address adaptation from three levels: institutional, livelihoods and risk management and resilience. He suggested participants to focus on practical issues related to climate change effects, by focusing on the assessment of expected impacts and the discussion of required steps towards the implementation of adaptation measures.

9. Mr Miguel Bernal (FAO-GFCM Fisheries Resources Officer), Mr Marcelo Vasconcellos (FAO Fishery Resources Officer), Ms Tarub Bahri (FAO Fishery Resources Officer) and Mr Giuseppe di Carlo (WWF Mediterranean Marine Initiative Director) provided information on the objectives and expected outcomes of the meeting. In particular, Mr Bernal provided an overview of the mid-term strategy towards the sustainability of Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries, as approved by the GFCM in its 40 th Session, and highlighted that it included a specific reference to the need to prepare adaptation strategy towards climate change and non-indigenous species by 2020.

10. Mr Bernal chaired the first day of the meeting, while Mr Vasconcellos and Ms Bahri chaired the second day of the meeting and Mr Di Carlo acted as Chair on the last day of the meeting. Ms Diana Fernández de la Reguera (FAO consultant) served as Rapporteur. Abstracts of all the presentations made at the meeting are included in Appendix VII.

OBJECTIVES OF THE MEETING

11. The Expert Meeting on Climate Change Implications for the Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries was convened to take stock of the current available knowledge on the impacts and implications of climate change to fisheries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea and discussed a way forward towards a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptations strategies.

12. The meeting addressed the following Terms of Reference:

a. Review the existing information on the observed and expected impacts of climate change on Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries.

b. Identify examples of existing adaptation measures to climate change effects on fisheries at national, sub-regional and regional levels.

c. Agree on a common methodology to assess risks and vulnerabilities of Mediterranean and Black Sea coastal states to climate change effects on fisheries.

d. Agree on and define a roadmap to apply this methodology and facilitate the adoption of national, sub-regional and/or regional adaptation strategies to cope with potential effects of climate change and invasive species on fisheries on the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.

REVISION OF STATE OF THE ART

Mediterranean and Black Sea climate projections

13. Mr Gianmaria Sannino, Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) provided a general overview of existing climate projections in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. He noted that in comparison with other areas worldwide, a reduced number of ocean modeling approaches exist in the area, especially for the Black Sea, and very few models incorporate realistic forcing in the connecting area with the Atlantic Sea (the Strait of Gibraltar) and the connecting area between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea (the Marmara Sea and the Dardanelles). He highlighted that due to these limitations, climate projections in the area were lacking an adequate estimate of uncertainty, hampering the provision of realistic scenarios of the potential effect of climate change in the region. Notwithstanding these limitations, he highlighted the main expected effects of climate in the area, including i) increase of temperatures, ii) changes on sea surface salinity and iii) increase in sea level. He noted that in relation to sea surface salinity, Mediterranean models provided different outcomes depending on the forcing used, but overall, when realistic forcing was used in the Strait of Gibraltar, models predicted an increase of salinity. On the contrary, in the Black Sea, models predicted a decrease in salinity.

14. Participants highlighted the importance of climate projections to set up a baseline on the expected impact of climate change on the Mediterranean and Black Sea. The fact that Global projections provide little information on the potential changes in the Mediterranean and Black

Sea was highlighted as an important shortcoming, and the need to use regional models instead was noted. A discussion took place on the potential effects of climate on the vertical dynamics and water column stratification in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as on the potential secondary effects of these changes on primary and secondary production. Participants agreed on the need to advance on the use of a variety of models that allow encompassing the uncertainty on climate projections, as well as on the coupling of biogeochemical models that allow simulating the effect of different climate scenarios on primary and secondary production. Finally, the group stressed the need to take also into account the effects of natural climate variability (e.g. NAO, AMO, or Mediterranean climate models such as MO or WeMO) in the assessment, rather than consider only climate change.

15. Based on the discussions held during the meeting, specific recommendations for the development of climate change projections for the Mediterranean and Black Sea were elaborated (Appendix III).

Climate change and Mediterranean fisheries

16. Mr Manuel Hidalgo, FAO consultant, presented a summary of existing works on climate change and Mediterranean fisheries, providing an overview of i) the main fisheries; ii) the expected physical, biological and ecological impacts of climate change; iii) the expected impacts on the fisheries (including socioeconomic impacts); and iv) the current understanding of the vulnerabilities and potential opportunities resulting from climate change. He highlighted expected changes in the connectivity between different areas occupied by different life stages of fish populations, noting that warming was expected to alter spawning, growth and behaviour, as well as ocean dynamics a one of the examples of several known expected impacts of climate change not projected yet either quantified. The background document prepared by Mr Hidalgo is included in Appendix VIII.

17. Presentations delivered by Messrs Athanassios Tsikliras, Francesco Colloca, Hicham Masski, Tomaso Fortibuoni, Vahdet Unal and Dario Pinello provided additional information on expected impacts of climate change and variability on Mediterranean fisheries, as summarized in Appendix VII.

18. Participants addressed in detail some of the aspects included in the presentations, focusing on i) the quality of information available to assess the potential impact of climate change on fisheries, including spatial differences between north and south and western and eastern Mediterranean regions; ii) how to establish the baseline for climate change in the area, taking into account that the Mediterranean Sea has been subject to a variety of anthropogenic effects other than climate change and already show signals of changes in their ecosystems; iii) changes in the distribution of some commercial fish species, including observed northward trends for different species; iv) potential contrasting effects of climate change between areas that trigger positive and negative effects on main commercial species, including on hake and shrimps, in neighboring regions; v) other potential changes in environmental/oceanographic processes likely to affect fisheries but difficult to predict with models; vi) potential new opportunities, challenges and problems for fisheries, in particular for Small Scale Fisheries (SSF) and in relation to the increase in abundance and distribution of non-indigenous species; and vi) potential socioeconomic effects and how to measure them.

19. With the aim to contribute to the framework for assessing the vulnerability of fisheries to the effects of climate change, the ensuing discussions centered on the definition of the scope of the assessment, including the type of fisheries to be assessed and the geographical and temporal scale of the assessment, and the main drivers and their spatial scale that should be considered and their expected impacts.

20. In relation to the scope of the assessment, it was agreed that, due to the differences in the species composition, dynamics and sensitivity to climate-driven environmental changes, the assessment should be centered on five main types of fisheries: a) benthic invertebrate fisheries; b) small-scale coastal fisheries; c) small pelagic fisheries; d) large pelagic fisheries; and e) demersal fisheries. In terms of geographical scale, participants agreed that the assessment should try to account for subregional differences in environmental changes, with the Western Mediterranean, Eastern Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea suggested as a minimum level of geographic disaggregation. In this regard, participants noted that some regional differences on the combined impact of climate change and other related phenomena (e.g. the appearance and expansion of non-indigenous species) were already obvious in the Mediterranean, with the eastern areas showing faster changes than the rest of the Mediterranean. The expansion of the pufferfish ( Lagocephalus sceleratus ) on Eastern Mediterranean and the variety of negative effects on ecosystems and fisheries was one example discussed in detail during the meeting. Finally, in relation to the temporal scope, and in line with the objectives set-up for the FAO technical review on climate and fisheries, the group proposed to work on the mid-term, with a temporal horizon of 2050.

21. In light of the above, experts from the Mediterranean agreed on generic matrices of main drivers and expected impacts of climate change to fisheries in each of the Mediterranean sub- regions (Appendix IV). These generic matrices summarize the understanding of the likely pathways of impacts of climate change on fisheries in the Mediterranean, providing some of the basic information needed for the assessment of risks and vulnerabilities to climate change. This is described in the respective section below and in Appendix VI.

Climate change and Black Sea fisheries

22. Ms Vesselina Mihneva, FAO consultant, presented a summary of existing works on climate change and Black Sea fisheries providing an overview of the Black Sea oceanography, a description of fish stock population dynamics and a summary of expected effects of climate change in the area. She described the crucial role of the cold intermediate layer and the associated boundaries of the anoxic zone on areas below approximately 150 m depth. She presented evidences of the erosion of this water mass layer and the shoaling of anoxic zone. She also highlighted the effect of other anthropogenic effects such as pollution, eutrophication and destruction of habitats, and noted on the importance of the effect of non-indigenous species on the area. She concluded showing previously observed changes in the main fisheries in the area, including the collapse of anchovy fishery in the 1990s, as well as some potential impacts of climate fisheries in these fisheries, as described in the literature. The background document prepared by Ms Mihneva is included in Appendix IX.

23. Presentations delivered by Mr Georgy Daskalov, Ms Tamara A. Shiganova, and Mr Cemal Turan provided additional information on expected impacts of climate change on Black Sea fisheries, as summarized in Appendix VII.

24. Participants raised several questions concerning the relationship between climate change and variability and the apparent fluctuations observed in the dynamics of small pelagics and other species in the area. Also, the role of the invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi and in general the influence of non-indigenous species in the area was discussed. Participants drew special attention to the importance of river runoff and several other human activities as drivers of change of the Black Sea ecosystem. It was noted that the increase of extreme events was also likely to have an effect, although current models have limited capability to provide adequate projections for this process.

25. In line with the previous discussions for the Mediterranean area, experts from the Black Sea agreed that the geographical scale of the assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries to climate change should embrace the whole Black Sea. In terms of fisheries, anchovy, sprat, turbot, bonito and rapa whelk were considered the priority focus for the assessment. As for the Mediterranean, a mid-term temporal scale (up to 2050) should be used. Black Sea experts agreed on a generic matrix of main drivers and expected impacts of climate change to fisheries (Appendix V) to be used in the assessment of risks and vulnerabilities described in the respective section below and in Appendix VI.

EXISTING AND RECOMMENDED ADAPTATION MEASURES TO COPE WITH CLIMATE EFFECTS ON FISHERIES

26. Ms Poulain presented a summary of the international commitments with regards to climate change mitigation and adaptation of relevance for fisheries, including those emanating from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 2015 Paris Agreement, and described existing tools for the development of national and regional adaptation plans. She stressed the importance of the Paris Agreement to include fisheries adaptation in the National Determined Contributions (NDC), which is the process used by national governments to evaluate climate risks and policy opportunities. She noted that a large proportion of available NDCs recognize fisheries impacts as a priority and that many governments are interested in expanding marine research to better understand and respond to the climate impacts. The FAO’s climate change strategy was described, particularly the actions to enhance the role of the Organization in providing technical knowledge and expertise for the formulation of adaptation options for fisheries and aquaculture. In this regard, she described the ongoing work to prepare an adaptation tool box, based on three levels of adaptation: institutional and management; livelihoods adaptation; and risk/resilience. Finally, she presented an overview of some of the existing adaption methods and tools to respond to climate change impacts.

27. Mr Hidalgo and Ms Mihneva reviewed existing examples of adaptation measures taken in Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries, providing a preliminary assessment of their potential use in the context of the GFCM mid-term strategy. In relation to the Mediterranean, the existence of a well-developed measures and actions for fisheries in the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) of

Italy and Greece was highlighted, while the need to improve transboundary research and management to be able to establish regional adaptation plans was also noted. In relation to the Black Sea, the existence of incipient adaptation plans in Bulgaria and Romania was noted, while the need for capacity building, both at the level of research institutions and country administrations was noted.

28. Participants remarked upon the reduced number of examples of adaptation plans and measures in the region and agreed on the need to execute a more comprehensive analysis of risks, vulnerabilities and adaptation options. The existing gaps and regional differences in the information available at country level were noted. The heterogeneity of Mediterranean countries, both in terms of national capacities and fisheries characteristics was stressed as a challenge to carry out a regional analysis. In this regard, the need for a variety of capacity building actions was recommended.

29. It was underlined the necessity to take into account the influence of non-climate factors, such as the socio-economic development of coastal zones, into countries’ adaptation capacity. Participants agreed on the need to provide for various levels of adaptation responses, including protection, accommodation and retreat, as emanating from the summaries presented.

METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS THE RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES

30. Mr Vasconcellos presented a general framework for the assessment of risks and vulnerabilities of fisheries to climate change. The conceptual model of vulnerability adopted by the IPCC was introduced and the concepts of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity described in the context of marine fisheries. He detailed the different steps required for a vulnerability assessment, including the identification of main drivers and potential effects, as well as how to provide qualitative and/or quantitative assessments of the risks associated to different combinations of drivers and effects. He concluded by stressing that the objective of this first meeting was to reach agreement on some of the basic elements of the vulnerability assessment methodology, including the definition of the scope, the identification of main drivers and general expected impacts and the identification of methodological options for the assessment of risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities. Some of these elements were discussed and agreed in the previous session of the workshop. Appendix VI details the proposed methodology for the vulnerability assessment.

31. A number of modeling approaches to address the potential effect of climate change on fisheries were introduced by Mr Gianpaolo Coro, Ms Frida Lasram and Mr Jean-Noël Druon. Mr Coro summarized the potential of existing models to provide a long-term forecast of environmental variables, as well as their use to predict changes in the distribution of species, including an example of the invasive pufferfish in the eastern Mediterranean (Coro et al. , 2018). Ms Lasram provided insight in the use of ecological niche models that use expected changes in environmental variables such as temperature to predict changes in ecological niche and project changes in species composition, simulating the expansion or disappearance of species in a given area. Finally, Mr Druon summarized efforts done at the European Commission Joint Research Center to provide habitat models from plankton to fish for monitoring current climate change

8 impacts on high trophic levels, showing outputs of existing habitat/ecological niche models for various Mediterranean species.

32. Participants acknowledged the importance of these modeling approaches in providing a framework for the simulation of potential changes to support the assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries in the area. A number of issues were discussed regarding the limitations of the modeling approaches, such as the reduced number of environmental variables available (e.g. mainly temperature) to predict ecosystem response and the coarse spatial resolution of the available models. The difficulty to incorporate the potential effects associated with the appearance of new non-indigenous species was also noted. However, participants agreed that these models can provide very useful advice on the general expected response to potential future scenarios, assuming that reliable climate change scenarios can be developed for the region (see section on Mediterranean and Black Sea climate projections). Also, in relation to fisheries management advice, models can be refined and their predictive capacity increased if short term (e.g. 5–10 years) scenarios are used. These predictions could, for instance, be useful for fisheries management strategy evaluations. Specific recommendations concerning the use of modeling approaches for the projection of impacts of climate change for Mediterranean and Black Sea are included in Appendix III.

33. On the basis of the methods discussed, participants agreed that the matrices of drivers/impacts previously identified (Appendix III and IV) can be used to select the main impact pathways that need to be assessed using qualitative (qualitative risk/exposure/adaptability) and/or quantitative (e.g. through models) approaches.

34. The limited expertise on the assessment of the potential impact of drivers on fisheries operations as well as on the socioeconomic aspects of fisheries was highlighted, and the importance to involve experts on these issues in the assessments was stressed. The complexity of the matrices and the potentially high number of pathways to be assessed was also mentioned as a potential challenge. It was noted that the matrices were meant to provide a generic view of the likely pathways of impacts of climate drivers in each sub-region of the Mediterranean and Black Sea. The matrices and pathways would need to be refined and adapted when applied to the vulnerability assessment of specific fisheries.

ROADMAP TOWARDS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY TO CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON FISHERIES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THE BLACK SEA

35. Mr Di Carlo presented a proposed roadmap towards an adaptation strategy, building from the first proposal presented to the 19 th session of the GFCM SAC and taking into account the advances made during the meeting. The proposed roadmap included the following steps:

- January 2018: On the basis of the background technical documents on the state of the art of climate change effects on Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries (included in Appendices VIII and IX of this report), prepare a draft Mediterranean and Black Sea chapter to be included in the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture.

- March–April 2018: Present the proposed methodology for the vulnerability assessments (Appendix VI) to the GFCM Subregional Committees (Eastern, Western, Central and Adriatic), for their review and feedback. - May–June 2018: Finalize the proposed methodology for vulnerability assessment, based on inputs received by Subregional Committees, and initiate identification of potential case studies across the Mediterranean and Black Sea. - June 2018: Present methodology for validation and endorsement by the GFCM SAC and agreement on pilot studies. - December 2018: Presentation of the results of vulnerability assessments carried out in the GFCM Fish Forum. 36. In parallel to the above steps, the meeting also agreed on the need to advance in the generation of improved climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean and Black Sea, based on the downscaling of global projection models. Specific recommendations in this regard were elaborated and are included in Appendix III.

37. With a view to further refine the methodology, including the matrices of drivers and impacts, the meeting discussed the possibility of test running the vulnerability assessment in advance of the Subregional Committee meetings. Depending on the availability of time and resources, this test running could be attempted before the SRC of Western Mediterranean. The need to ensure the involvement of stakeholders in the assessment was stressed, in line with the best practices for vulnerability assessments.

38. Further steps towards a regional adaptation strategy to cope with the climate change effects on fisheries are expected to be defined by the GFCM Commission and technical bodies, building on the outcomes of the roadmap outlined above.

CLOSURE OF THE MEETING

39. The organizers thanked participants for their important efforts during the meeting and participants highlighted the importance of the results achieved, expressing their hope that they will be useful for undertaking Vulnerability Assessments through the region, and ultimately assist countries and the GFCM in planning their adaptation strategies.

40. The meeting report was adopted by correspondence.

Appendix I Agenda of the meeting

1. Opening of the meeting and arrangements for the sessions 2. Revision of State of Art 3. Existing and recommended adaptation measures to cope with climate effects on fisheries 4. Methodology to assess the risks and vulnerabilities 5. Roadmap towards an adaptation strategy to climate change effects on fisheries in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea 6. Closure of the meeting

Appendix II List of Participants

Frida Ben Rais Lasram Dario Pinello Université Littoral Côte d’Opale, Université NISEA. Fisheries and Aquaculture Economic Lille, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Research. Salerno, Italy Géosciences. Wimereux, France E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Gianmaria Sannino Matthieu Bernardon Climate Modeling Lab. ENEA, SSPT-MET. Fisheries Planning and Management Consultant. Rome, Italy. E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

Francesco Colloca Tamara A. Shiganova National Research Council - Institute for Coastal P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of Russian Marine Environment (CNR- IAMC). Academy of Sciences. Mazara del Vallo (TP) - Italy Moscow, Russian Federation Department of Biology and Biotechnology, E-mail: [email protected] Sapienza University of Rome. Rome, Italy E-mail: [email protected] Athanassios C. Tsikliras School of Biology, Aristotle University of Gianpaolo Coro Thessaloniki. Thessaloniki, Greece. Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie E-mail: [email protected] dell’Informazione A. Faedo – National Research Council of Italy (CNR). Rome, Italy Cemal Turan E-mail: [email protected] Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Marine Sciences and Technology, Iskenderun Georgi M. Daskalov Technical University. Iskenderun, Hatay, Turkey Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem E-mail: [email protected] Research, IBER-BAS, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. Sofia, Bulgaria Vahdet Ünal E-mail: [email protected] Faculty of Fisheries, Ege University. Bornova, İzmir, Turkey. Jean-Noël Druon E-mail: [email protected] European Commission – Joint Research Centre, Directorate D – Sustainable Resources. WWF Unit D.02 Water and Marine Resources. Ispra, Italy Giuseppe Di Carlo E-mail: [email protected] WWF Mediterranean Marine Initiative Director. Rome, Italy Tomaso Fortibuoni E-mail: [email protected] National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics - OGS, Oceanography FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Division. Trieste, Italy E-mail: [email protected] Manuel Barange Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources Hicham Masski Division Director. National institute of fisheries research (INRH). Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Casablanca, Morocco Agriculture Organization of the United Nations E-mai: [email protected]; [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

Marcelo Vasconcellos FAO – GFCM Secretariat FAO Fishery Resources Officer Marine and Inland Fisheries Branch (FIAF) Miguel Bernal Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Fishery Resources Officer Agriculture Organization of the United Nations General Fisheries Commission for the E-mail: [email protected] Mediterranean Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Tarub Bahri Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fishery Resources Officer E-mail: [email protected] Marine and Inland Fisheries Branch (FIAF) Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Nicola Ferri Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Legal and Institutional Officer E-mail: [email protected] General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean Florence Poulain Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Officer Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Policy, Economics and Institutions Branch E-mail: [email protected] (FIAP) Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Margherita Sessa Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Liaison Officer E-mail: [email protected] General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean Manuel Hidalgo Fisheries and Aquaculture Department FAO Consultant Food and Agriculture Organization of the Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro United Nations Oceanográfico de Málaga, Spain. E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Paolo Carpentieri Vesselina Mihneva GFCM Consultant FAO Consultant General Fisheries Commission for the Institute of Fish Resources. Varna, Bulgaria Mediterranean E-mail: [email protected] Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Diana Fernandez de la Reguera E-mail: [email protected] FAO consultant E-mail: [email protected]

Appendix III Future climate projections for the Mediterranean and Black Sea

1. Future climate projections are made available at the global scale by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP, https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip). However, while the horizontal and vertical resolution of such models is almost adequate to study the effect of climate change on global ocean, they are inadequate to assess the impact of climate change in marginal seas. The maximum horizontal resolution adopted by a small subset of CMIP6 models is ¼° (30 km), while the ocean mesoscale in the Mediterranean Sea is characterized by a Rossby deformation radius of 5–10 km. We underline that ocean mesoscale plays a crucial role also in dense water formation whose modelling requires a high spatial resolution both for atmospheric (~25 km) and oceanic (~5–10 km) component. High resolution is also needed to accurately simulate the mass exchange between the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar. Furthermore, similar resolutions are needed to simulate the mesoscale features of prior importance for the ocean productivity (productive fronts) and high trophic levels.

2. Future climate projections are made available at the regional scale by the Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative. Med- CORDEX aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modelling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from the atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. Med-CORDEX takes advantage of new very high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCM, up to 10 km) and new fully coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs), coupling the various components of the regional climate. Med-CORDEX is a unique framework where research community will make use of both regional atmospheric, land surface, river and oceanic climate models and coupled regional climate system models for increasing the reliability of past and future regional climate information and understanding the processes that are responsible for the Mediterranean climate variability and trends. The data are freely available and downloadable from the Med-CORDEX web-portal (www.medcordex.eu). The Med-CORDEX community is still working to complete the "matrix" of climate simulations (downscaling most of the available scenarios CMPI5/CMIP6, in especially scenarios RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Simulations are carried out on a voluntary basis. An ad hoc financing plan could accelerate the completion of the simulation matrix (estimated time: one year).

3. For the Black Sea, only a few stand-alone regional models have been developed, and some shortcomings related to the incorporation of river runoff and model forcing exist. Further work and a review of the outputs of the existing models are therefore suggested.

4. Complementary environmental information has been made available from general circulation models for a number of environmental parameters. In particular, CNR maintains a repository of public access global parameters distributions (http://thredds.d4science.org/thredds/catalog/public/netcdf/ClimateChange/catalog.html ) including data for the following variables: Sea surface temperature, primary production, temperature at sea bottom level, sea surface salinity, salinity at sea bottom level, and ice concentration. These distributions were calculated at .5° resolution for the years 1950, 1999, 2016, 2050, and 2100 and are available under the standard NetCDF format. This information was published after processing and structuring the public textual data of the AquaMaps Consortium, projected through the IPSL weather forecast model under the IPCC A1B projection scenario. The same CNR repository contains .5° resolution distributions for average Surface Air Temperature and Precipitations, extracted and reprocessed from the NASA Earth Exchange Platform, under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gases concentration scenarios. High availability access to these data is guaranteed through the D4Science e-Infrastructure catalogue (https://services.d4science.org/catalogue ). Although coarser in resolution and less accurate than the Med-CORTEX parameters, these data are global distributions that can be useful to trace general similarities between the Mediterranean Sea and other areas in the global oceans (e.g. the North or South Atlantic) and to estimate potential future distribution of invasive species, based on assumptions on their niche characteristics D4Science also publishes NetCDF files containing global-scale habitat distributions estimates for about 11 400 species, projected for today and 2050, based on the AquaMaps-Native Ecological Niche Model (http://thredds.d4science.org/thredds/catalog/public/netcdf/AquamapsNative/catalog.html http://thredds.d4science.org/thredds/catalog/public/netcdf/AquamapsNative2050/catalog. html ). A number of free-of-use Ecological Niche Models, to be trained with Mediterranean Sea environmental data, are available through the (free-of-use) D4Science Cloud computing system as Web services (https://services.d4science.org ). A demonstrative complete analysis based on all the mentioned data and models has been made available for the pufferfish Lagocephalus sceleratus (https://goo.gl/vvleUG ). Interesting information could also come from Copernicus (http://copernicus.eu/main/climate-change )

5. As a way forward in the development of future climate projections for the Mediterranean and Black Sea, the following steps could be attempted:

- Start using the available regional hindcast simulations (provided for instance by Med- CORDEX for the Mediterranean Sea) to feed a range of selected Ecological Niche Models (ENM) with resolution ranging from basin to local scale and estimate their performances.

- Compare regional-scale and local-scale ENMs for a number of species, in order to understand their correlations and explore patterns in their coherences and differences that may depend on climate change.

- Based on niche hindcast, trace correlation between catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) and estimated thermal habitat loss.

6. Practical recommendations regarding the use of projections of Ecological Niche Models: - Use 3 scenarios to provide probable variability and range of CC impacts: 2.6, 4.5, 8.5. - Use 3 areas in the Med (east, west, Adriatic) and 1 for the Black Sea to present integrated results, - Because of uncertainties linked to the projections and to the limited number of variables used for the ENMs, trend of habitat changes by species integrated on the areas described above should be presented with three levels of impact, e.g. low/medium/high associated rates of change of e.g. 0–20 percent/20–50 percent/50–100 percent (no detailed maps should be presented). It should be kept in mind that available habitat suitability information will apply to adult populations not to larvae/recruits which are critical phases of the stock dynamics and has a narrower niche. Habitat suitability can, however, be related, as a first order variability, to potential catches. - A limited number of important commercially exploited species (e.g. small pelagics, hake, rose shrimp) and commercially impacting invasive species (e.g. pufferfish or lionfish) should be selected.

7. Alternatively, or in addition to the above, ecological models such as trophic web models (e.g. Ecopath, Ecosim and Ecospace) could also be used (including by linking them to climate projection and ENMs) to explore the potential effects of climate change on the food web.

8. In addition to the above, it is important to address potential changes on the human part of fisheries, including for example changes in the characteristics of the fleet (e.g. changes in the distribution of effort among fleet segments) and changes in the fishing gears in adaptation to changes in the distribution of fish species and/or market preferences.

Appendix IV

Generic matrices of climate change drivers and the expected impacts/implications to fisheries in selected Mediterranean sub-regions

WESTERN Direct Impact Indirect Impact No Impact MEDITERRANEAN Climate change driver

Observed/

Expected impacts and implications

Runoff SST in Increase salinity in Increase frequency Increase waves heat of acidification Ocean precipitation in Change rise level Sea Evaporation mixing/ Vertical stratification masses water Deep formation weather Extreme events circulation Mesoscale radiation solar Net Intermediate processes Primary production Secondary production Plankton composition Plankton seasonality Connectivity Jellyfish blooms Eutrophication Invasive species Habitat modification Diseases Fisheries resources Catches composition Species geographic distribution Species bathymetric distribution Trends in abundance/biomass Abundance variability Species phenology Trophic structure Life history traits (growth, reproduction) Presence of non-native species Fishing Operations

WESTERN Direct Impact Indirect Impact No Impact MEDITERRANEAN Climate change driver

Observed/ Expected impacts and implications Increase in SST SST in Increase salinity in Increase frequency Increase waves of heat acidification Ocean precipitation in Change rise Sealevel Evaporation mixing/ Vertical stratification Runoff masses water Deep formation weather Extreme events circulation Mesoscale radiation solar Net

N° of accidents at sea Cost of fishing operations 1 Cost of post-harvesting (preservation) Integrity of fishing assets (gears, vessels) Efficiency of gears Fishing trips/days at sea Resource dependency Community and Livelihoods Landing value Employment rate female Employment rate male Contribution of fish products to food security Safety of (coastal) communities Fishing activities dependence Cultural and heritage Market opportunities (non-native species) Wider Society and economy implications Health issues Food security Recreational fisheries National income Tourism activities Number of fishers

1 Including maintenance, duration of trips

EASTERN Direct Impact Indirect Impact No Impact MEDITERRANEAN Climate change driver

Observed/

Expected impacts and implications

Net solar radiation solar Net SST in Increase salinity in Increase frequency Increase waves heat of acidification Ocean precipitation in Change rise level Sea Evaporation mixing/ Vertical stratification Runoff masses water Deep formation weather Extreme events circulation Mesoscale Intermediate processes Primary production Secondary production Plankton composition Plankton seasonality Connectivity Jellyfish blooms Eutrophication Invasive species Habitat modification Diseases Fisheries resources Catches composition Species geographic distribution Species bathymetric distribution Trends in abundance/biomass Abundance variability Species phenology Trophic structure Life history traits (growth, reproduction) Presence of non-native species Fishing Operations N° of accidents at sea Cost of fishing operations 2 Cost of post-harvesting

2 Including maintenance, duration of trips

EASTERN Direct Impact Indirect Impact No Impact MEDITERRANEAN Climate change driver

(preservation) Integrity of fishing assets (gears, vessels) Efficiency of gears Fishing trips/days at sea Resource dependency Community and Livelihoods Landing value Employment rate female Employment rate male Contribution of fish products to food security Safety of (coastal) communities Fishing activities dependence Cultural and heritage Market opportunities (non-native species) Wider Society and economy implications Health issues Food security Recreational fisheries National income Tourism activities Number of fishers

ADRIATIC - Direct Impact Indirect Impact No Impact MEDITERRANEAN Climate change driver

Observed/

Expected impacts and implications

ADRIATIC - Direct Impact Indirect Impact No Impact MEDITERRANEAN Climate change driver

3 Cost of fishing operations Cost of post-harvesting (preservation) Integrity of fishing assets (gears, vessels) Efficiency of gears Fishing trips/days at sea Resource dependency Community and Livelihoods Landing value Employment rate female Employment rate male Contribution of fish products to food security Safety of (coastal) communities Fishing activities dependence Cultural and heritage Market opportunities (non-native species) Wider Society and economy implications Health issues Food security Recreational fisheries National income Tourism activities Number of fishers

3 Including maintenance, duration of trips

Appendix V

Generic matrix of climate change drivers and the expected impacts/implications to fisheries in the Black Sea. Comments within the matrix reflect knowledge of the components more likely to be affected.

BLACK SEA Impact No Impact Climate change driver

Observed/Expected impacts and implications Oxic/anoxic Oxic/anoxic boundary weather Extreme events depth Thermocline stratification & Disintegration Disintegration CIL in circulation Surface (mesoscale) River run off run River Increase in SST in Increase SSS in Decrease Sea level rise level Sea Winter vertical vertical Winter mixing convective Fisheries resources Density gradient, Anchovy, bonito, that may affect Anadromous blue fish, tuna, fish migration All pelagics, Limits Changes in distribution of Demersal and species and Small pelagics, swordfish, red (more uncertain, jellyfish & Small pelagics distribution of Local effects small pelagics distribution in fish kills abundance mullet, salpa, salinity and plankton bottom species coastal areas bogue temperature act together) Primary production and link to eutrophication. All trophic levels. Not enough Production, Primary Fish kills and Changes in evidence. Possible eutrophication, Production, Demersal and production with mortality due to phytoplankton effect on Plankton and fish blooms, fish blooms and Changes in productivity small pelagics effects on food strong winds, species spawning and egg recruitment and web storms, heat composition. survival. growth Gelatinous zooplankton. Small pelagic fish. Late schooling of Affects cold water Timing of blooms small pelagics. Not enough species, possible Not enough of phytoplankton Changes in species phenology Migration evidence effect on time of evidence and jellyfish pattern/circuit/ spawning

BLACK SEA Impact No Impact Climate change driver

Observed/Expected impacts and implications Decrease in SSS SSS in Decrease Disintegration CIL in circulation Surface (mesoscale) vertical Winter mixing convective Oxic/anoxic boundary rise level Sea off run River weather Extreme events depth Thermocline stratification & Increase in SST SST in Increase

timing.

Timing of bloom events of phytoplankton (Noctiluca , Coccolithopho - ridae) Habitats shifting of demersal fish. Reproduction and maturation of fish. Establishment of Driver could be non -native fish helpful for most species, algae, estuarine species Presence of non -native species pathogens, ctenophores from but will limit oceanic species outside the Black establishment Sea Trophic interactions - Impact on habitats changes in Water quality and wetlands in Impact on habitats feeding and Trophic effects the coastal zone physiology. Trophic effects Ecosystem-wide changes and cascade Meridianization. Ecosystem Mass mortality of Regime shifts and benthic and fish trophic cascade. species Fishing Operations Cold water Effect on coastal Coastal fisheries Cost of fishing species fisheries fish Decreased operations due to Vessel safety extreme weather events, damage to gears and vessels by storms Negative impact - preservation time Preservation of catches is longer, extra costs for preservation Community and Livelihoods

BLACK SEA Impact No Impact Climate change driver

Warm water species as aquacultures. Market opportunities (non- NIS for Estuarine species indigenous species) marketing. as aquacultures Reduced catches of native fish species Wider Society and economy implications Disease and Affect invasion of Health issues pathogens nuisance species Fishing technologies New fishing gears

Appendix VI

Overview of the methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea to the effects of climate change

This Appendix summarizes the methodology proposed to be used in the assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea to the effects of climate change. The methodology was based on literature review and on inputs received during the expert meeting on the implications of climate change to fisheries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, Rome, 4–6 December 2017. Consistent with the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries, the methodology is based on the application of the precautionary principle through the use of best available knowledge and assumes a broad stakeholder participation throughout the assessment process.

Definitions

The methodology uses the following definitions adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Although variations to these definitions have been put forward more recently (FAO, 2015), the conceptual model of vulnerability described below is valid and used widely in vulnerability assessments.

- Vulnerability : the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed , its sensitivity , and its adaptive capacity (Figure 1).

Figure 1. IPCC conceptual model of vulnerability.

- Exposure : the degree to which a system is stressed by climate, such as the magnitude, frequency and duration of a climatic event (e.g. temperature anomalies, extreme weather events). In a practical sense, exposure is the extent to which a region, resource or community experiences change. For fishing communities, exposure would relate, for instance, to how much the resource they depend on will be affected by environmental change.

- Sensitivity : the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. The effect may be direct (e.g. a change in yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g. damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). The sensitivity of social systems depends on economic, political, cultural and institutional factors that allow for buffering of change.

- Adaptive capacity : the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. For example, systems with low adaptive capacity may have difficulty adapting to change or taking advantage of the opportunities created by changes in the availability of ecosystem goods and services stimulated by climate change or changes in management. Social systems are more likely to be sensitive to climate change if they are highly dependent on a climate vulnerable natural resource. These factors can confound (or ameliorate) the social and economic effects of climate exposure.

Objectives of the Vulnerability Assessment

The assessment of the vulnerability of fisheries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea to the effects of climate change has the following objectives:

- To understand the potential risks to the fisheries sector in the Mediterranean and Black Sea of the ongoing and projected climate-driven environmental changes. - To identify areas and/or sectors more vulnerable and in need of adaptation options. - To contribute to a regional (GFCM) adaptation strategy to cope with the potential effects of climate change in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.

Scope of the Vulnerability Assessment

The focus of the vulnerability assessment is the fisheries production systems in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Fisheries production systems are here understood as the coupled social-ecological systems composed of the resource base (stocks) and supporting ecosystems, the fishers, the fishing technologies and practices used in the capture production and the fisheries value chain.

The fisheries production systems are affected by different types of drivers (Figure 2). On the one hand, there are socioeconomic and institutional drivers that affect how fisheries operate and influence the sustainability and profitability of the activity. They include governance factors such as policies and regulatory frameworks that conditions where, what and how resources are harvested and by whom, cultural/traditional factors that condition the maintenance of fishing livelihoods and practices, and economic factors that define market opportunities and constrains

27 and the dynamics of the value chain. On the other hand, the systems are influenced by anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing, habitat degradation and pollution that affect the productivity and resilience of the stocks and ecosystems. The systems are also affected by climate change drivers, such as changes in sea surface temperature, circulation, weather, etc. that can generate direct and indirect impacts on fisheries. The known direct effects of climate change include changes in the abundance and distribution of exploited species and the impacts of weather events on fishing operations and infrastructure. Indirect effects can include changes in other ecosystem components that interact with the fisheries resources, as well as environmental changes that affect other food production systems and people’s health (Cochrane et al., 2009; Heenan et al., 2015). The vulnerability of the fisheries production systems will depend on how they can cope with the impacts of climate change giving the conditions determined by the other drivers.

Figure 2. Conceptual model of the fisheries production system and the vulnerability to climate change.

The assessment of the vulnerability of the fisheries production systems could be focused on different spatial scales of analysis, e.g., at the level of the fishing unit (vessel), fleet segment, fishing community, country, sub-regions, etc. Considering the geographic, environmental and socioeconomic differences among sub-regions and fisheries across the Mediterranean and Black Sea, the expert meeting recommended the use of the following minimum level of stratification for a comprehensive view of the impacts and vulnerabilities of fisheries to climate change in the region:

Area Sub-regions Fisheries/resources

Mediterranean Adriatic Sea, Western Mediterranean, small -scale fisheries; small -pelagics; Eastern Mediterranean large pelagics; demersals; and benthic invertebrates.

Black Sea Black Sea (as a whole) anchovy, sprat, turbot, bonito, rapa whelk

Representative fisheries production system will need to be identified within each of the above strata to use as case studies for the vulnerability assessments.

In terms of the temporal scale of analysis, the expert meeting recommended that the assessment consider the projected changes and impacts on the mid-term (until 2050).

Baseline situation

The first step in the scoping analysis is to conduct a baseline assessment to describe the current situation of the fishery production systems. Table 1 list examples of variables that could be used to characterize the fishery production systems in the baseline report.

Table 1. Examples of variables to describe the baseline situation of a fishery production system.

Type Variables Ecological - Area of operation - Target and bycatch species - Status of stocks

Technological - Gears - Vessels - Equipment

Socioeconomic - Landings - Revenue (and crew sharing system) - Economic dependency - Education - Social protection - Access to credit - Market

- Level of organization (e.g. cooperatives, associations, etc)

Institutional - Enabling policies - Management capacity - Management plans and contingency measures

Main drivers of change (non-climate - Pollution related) - Habitat degradation - Overfishing, etc.

Climate change drivers and expected impacts

The second step in the scoping analysis is to understand the main pathways that climate change can potentially impact the fishery production systems. There are multiple pathways of potential impacts (Figure 3) and it is important to understand which pathways are likely to be relevant to the systems at stake. During the expert meeting participants elaborated generic matrices of drivers and impacts for each of the sub-regions in the Mediterranean and Black Sea (Appendixes IV and V). These matrices could be used as starting points for discussing and identifying potential pathways of impacts of climate change in specific fishery production systems case studies in each of the sub-regions.

Figure 3. Generic examples of pathways of the impact of global warming on fisheries (Badjeck et al, 2010).

Framework of analysis

The vulnerability assessment is based on the IPCC conceptual model which considers vulnerability a function of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the system (Figure 1). A risk assessment approach is used in the assessment of the vulnerability.

The impacts of climate change can be negative or positive. Negative impacts represent threats – they need to be mitigated. Positive impacts represent opportunities – they need to be explored and benefited from. The importance of the negative or positive impacts can be measured in terms of: 1) the level of expected impact or consequences and 2) the likelihood of the impact occurring. The likelihood of given level of impact occurring is defined as a measure of risk. Therefore, the vulnerability of a system to a given driver/event can be measured in terms of risk levels. While the likelihood of an impact occurring can be interpreted as a measure of exposure of the system to a specific driver/event, the consequences of a driver/event can be linked to its sensitivity and adaptive capacity. FAO (2015) noted that a similar interpretation of the relationships between risk and vulnerability were proposed in the 5 th Assessment Report of the IPCC.

For instance, consider two small-scale fisheries in a given sub-region of the Mediterranean, exposed to the same level of changes in the distribution of a target species. Both are exposed to an event that is very likely to occur (based on observed and/or projected changes). Consider further that one of the small-scale fisheries is more dependent on that target species than the other, which has a much more diverse livelihood “portfolio” that includes other species not directly affected by climate change and also activities outside of the fisheries sector. In addition, the system has a social-security mechanism in place to guarantee a minimal level of income during unfavourable situations. The two systems have different levels of sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the climate change driver/event. The consequences of the event to one of the systems will be higher than to the other. Therefore, the two systems will have different levels of risk to the climate driver/event. The system with higher risk is the one more vulnerable to that particular driver. When analyzing positive impacts, the risk level becomes a measure of the expected capacity of the system to benefit from the opportunities associated with a given driver/event.

In lack of availability of fully quantitative methods to assess the risks associated with the different pathways of impacts, a qualitative risk assessment approach is suggested to be used (FAO, 2012). A similar qualitative approach was used in the FAO/WorldFish Workshop on “Adapting to climate change: the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Near East and North Africa Region”, when a preliminary list of issues and priorities concerning climate impacts on fisheries and aquaculture in the region was identified (Curtis et al., 2011)

An adaptation of the Consequence x Likelihood (C x L) matrix method is used (FAO, 2012). The method combines the scores from the qualitative or semi-quantitative ratings of consequence (levels of impact) and the likelihood (levels of probability) that a specific consequence will occur to generate a risk score and risk rating.

This C x L risk assessment process involves selecting the most appropriate combination of consequence and likelihood levels that fit the situation for a particular objective, based upon the

31 information available and the collective knowledge of the group of stakeholders involved in the assessment process. These scores are multiplied to generate an overall risk score. To allow the assessment of positive impacts, a two-way scale of consequence levels is applied (Garret et al., 2015; Table 2).

Table 2. Generic consequence categories for the assessment of risks of climate-driven impacts on fisheries. Positive consequences are in italics.

Level Description

1 Minor Minimal impacts that are highly acceptable. Few, small-scale impacts providing some minor opportunities across the fishing sector. 2 Moderate Maximum acceptable level of impact. Many, small-scale impacts providing moderate opportunities across the fishing sector. 3 Major Above acceptable limit. Wide and long-term negative impacts. Few, large-scale impacts providing some significant opportunities across the fishing sector. 4 Extreme Well above the acceptable limit. Very serious, likely to require long restoration time to undo. Many, large-scale impacts providing major opportunities across the fishing sector.

The consequences are assigned considering the expected sensitivity of the fishery system to a given pathway of impact and the adaptive capacity of the system. Different aspects could be considered in the evaluation of the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of a system. Table 3 provide some examples of variables that could be taken into account (Allison et al., 2009; Cinner et al., 2013; FAO, 2015; Whitney et al., 2017). Many of the variables should be part of the baseline assessment described before.

Table 3. Examples of generic social and ecological variables that could be used in the assessment of sensitivity and adaptive capacity of fishery systems.

Characteristics of adaptive capacity Characteristics of sensitivity Category Indicators Category Indicators Diversity and Livelihood and income diversity Fisheries Landings (value) of the affected species flexibility sensitivity as percent of total landings (value) Economic opportunities Gear sensitivity (which type of gear make fishery more or less sensitive to changes in species abundance) Level of dependence on natural Nutritional dependence on the affected resources species Occupational mobility Diversity and Species diversity flexibility Place attachment Species’ life history traits (e.g. growth, fecundity, resilience) Migration patterns Habitat range and tolerance Exploitation status Access to assets Household material assets (e.g. boats, Habitats and Habitat availability gears) interactions Community infrastructure Habitat heterogeneity and diversity Levels of education Habitat connectivity Financial status and access to sources Rate and magnitude of habitat of credit disturbance Access to markets Phenology Equity, rights and access to resources Capacity to Behavioral changes and learning adapt within species Access to public services (water, Phenotypic plasticity health, education) Learning and Resource monitoring and feedback Tolerance limits knowledge mechanisms Knowledge of disturbances (e.g. Reproductive rate and capacity for climate change) dissemination Perception of risk Dispersal/Migration capacity Spaces and platforms for learning Diversity of knowledge and information sources Governance and Levels of trust, social capital and institutions networks Gender and race relations Levels of participation and quality of decision-making processes Planning capacity Presence of local environmental institutions and strength of social norms Quality of governance and leadership in environmental policies and agencies Accountability of managers and governance bodies Active risk management and adaptive governance process

The Likelihood Table defines the levels of likelihood of a particular consequence occurring within the time period of analysis (in this particular case until 2050). The assignment of likelihood levels can be informed by the results of oceanographic and biophysical models, which

33 predicts the magnitude of changes in physical drivers according to different climate change scenarios. See Appendix III for specific recommendations concerning climate projections and modelling approaches available for the Mediterranean and Black Sea region. Identifying the time to when consequences are likely to occur (proximity, as defined by Garret et al., 2015) could be also used as an additional information for assigning the likelihood levels (Table 4).

Table 4. Example of likelihood definitions.

Level Description Proximity (time to consequence(s) occurring) 1 - remote Insignificant probability of the particular Over 50 years consequence occurring. 2 – unlikely Some evidence that the particular consequence level Within next 50 years could occur. 3 – possible The consequence level may occur but this is still not Within next 20 years likely.

4 – likely The particular consequence level is expected to Now occur.

The resulting risk matrix and management response are described in Tables 5 and 6. Impacts with risk scores 6 or above should be further considered for the design of adaptive measures.

Table 5. Risk matrix used in the C x L risk assessment. Numbers in cells indicate risk value, the colors/shades indicate risk rankings (source FAO, 2012).

Consequence Level Minor Moderate Major Extreme Likelihood 1 2 3 4 Remote 1 1 2 3 4 Unlikely 2 2 4 6 8 Possible 3 3 6 9 12 Likely 4 4 8 12 16

Table 6. Risk/vulnerability levels and recommended management response (adapted from FAO, 2012)

Risk/Vulnerability Level Risk Scores ( C x L ) Management Response

Negligible 1–2 None

Low 3–4 No specific management response

Medium 6–8 Specific management (adaptation) needed Increased management (adaptation) activities High 9–16 needed

Integration and analysis of results

By assessing the consequences and likelihoods of each of the identified relevant pathways of impacts of climate change to the specific fisheries, risk scores are assigned and the most important vulnerability factors identified. Table 7 illustrates the outcomes of the assessment on a single pathway for a pretended fishery.

The application of the methodology would allow the identification of specific vulnerability factors of importance to one or more fishery systems as well as the fishery systems more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The next step in the process is the identification of potential adaptation measures for the identified high risk/vulnerability impacts, which should be done in consultation with all relevant stakeholders. Different types of measures could be envisaged, depending on the nature of the impact and the context of the fishery systems. Table 3 provides a list of types of adaptation measures to consider.

Expected outcomes

• Identification of main climate drivers of environmental changes affecting fisheries • Evaluation of potential impacts (risks) of the drivers • Identification of the most vulnerable fisheries • Identification of the areas for adaptation capacity development • Awareness raising regarding the need to be proactive and adopt measures that will increase the resilience of fisheries to the climate change.

Table 7. Example of risk assessment of a possible pathway of climate impact on a pretended fishery.

Driver Threat/ Sensitivity Adaptive Consequence Exposure Likelihood Risk Level Impact capacity (Vulnerability score)

Increase in Change in High Weak Major (3) According to Likely (4) High (12) SST distribution of dependency of monitoring and ongoing the target the segment on control system; observations species the target difficult access and model species to credit to projections, upgrade the most vessels valuable species will move to areas not accessible to the fleet. Changes are already being observed. … … … … … … … …

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Appendix VII

List of abstracts

1. Future climate projections for the Mediterranean and Black Sea Gianmaria Sannino

Climate Modelling Laboratory, (Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA). Rome, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]

The Mediterranean area is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. It is expected that climate change will impact the Mediterranean marine ecosystems through complex interactions and feedbacks among different climate components (involving ocean-atmosphere-biosphere) on a wide a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this context earth system models are essential tools to properly represent air-sea-biosphere interactions and feedbacks. In the last years, global coupled models have progressively refined their horizontal resolution to attempt to resolve smaller-scale processes. However, finer-resolution regional coupled models driven by earth system models can provide additional information on interactions among climate components. Moreover, for the Mediterranean Sea there are some peculiar oceanographic features that need special attention. One is the highly variable two-way water exchange between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar. The Strait is characterized by a complex bathymetry with a succession of contractions and sills, its interaction with tides determines the characteristic of the hydraulic control and makes it an active element of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Similarly, the Turkish Straits System (TSS), composed of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits and the Marmara Sea, has been found to be crucial in determining the interactions between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Different, very high-resolution configurations of the MITgcm have been developed to simulate the Gibraltar Strait and TSS dynamics, respectively, including the effect of tides. Moreover, an ad hoc configuration of the MITgcm has been used to investigate the effects of tides on the thermohaline circulation of the whole Mediterranean basin, accounting for both the internal equilibrium and the incoming lateral components and explicitly resolving the Gibraltar strait dynamics. Results indicate that including the representation of explicit tidal forcing in the simulation of Mediterranean circulation has non-negligible effects in the basin interior, in addition to the expected intensification of local mixing processes. The natural development of such studies was the realization of a new integrated model of the Mediterranean and Black Sea system, in which the high-resolution non-uniform curvilinear orthogonal grid was extended to encompass the whole domain. The grid has an overall regular horizontal resolution of 1/48°, locally enhanced in the Straits in order to satisfy the minimum requirements dictated by findings of the high resolution dedicated experiments. The new model is operationally run at ENEA (Italy). All these modelling developments are

38 carried out in the framework of Med-CORDEX, the Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative. Med-CORDEX aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. Med-CORDEX initiative has been proposed by the Mediterranean climate research community as a follow-up of previous and existing initiatives. Med-CORDEX takes advantage of new very high- resolution Regional Climate Models (RCM, up to 10 km) and of new fully coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs), coupling the various components of the regional climate. Med-CORDEX is a unique framework where research community will make use of both regional atmospheric, land surface, river and oceanic climate models and coupled regional climate system models for increasing the reliability of past and future regional climate information and understanding the processes that are responsible for the Mediterranean climate variability and trends. The data are freely available and downloadable from the Med-CORDEX web-portal (www.medcordex.eu).

2. An overview of climate Change Implications for Fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea Manuel Hidalgo

Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga. Málaga, Spain. E-mail: [email protected]

The presentation provides an overview of the most relevant physical, biological and ecological changes induced by climate change (CC) that are impacting the Mediterranean fisheries, as well as the expectations and projections of potential future changes. Evidence of increasing temperature, salinity, heat waves, acidification, decrease in precipitation and, changes in thermohaline circulation and primary production are presented along with the impacts in the different fisheries. These impacts are presented for the most relevant groups of harvested species and fisheries: small and medium pelagic fish, large (migratory) pelagic fish, demersal species and, small scale and artisanal fisheries. Transversal impacts of CC discussed are changes in the distribution, productivity and phenology of the species, along with the increase of presence of non-native species. We finally present the more important implications of these impacts for food security, livelihoods and economic development at different levels, and we conclude with a synthesis of the main elements of vulnerability to CC as well as potential opportunities.

3. Climate forcing in the Mediterranean Sea? Ask the small pelagic fishes 1 2 3 Athanassios C. Tsikliras , Priscilla Licandro , Jürgen Alheit

1 School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. Thessaloniki, Greece. E-mail: [email protected] 2 Plymouth Marine Laboratory. Plymouth, UK 3 Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research. Warnemünde, Germany

Investigating the effects of climate change and variability on fish distribution, biomass, and landings in the Mediterranean Sea is particularly challenging due to its environmental and geopolitical complexity. The effect of sea warming (through sea surface temperature, SST) and climate variability [mainly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI)] on Mediterranean fish populations and catch composition has been widely studied in the recent years using various methods and indicators. The dynamics of many Mediterranean fish species – mainly small and medium pelagic ones – are synchronized with the NAO and AMO dynamics or respond to sea warming by changing their geographic and bathymetric distribution and by altering their population characteristics. The response of pelagic fishes to NAO and AMO dynamics may differ among the western, central and eastern Mediterranean. On a species level, round sardinella (Sardinella aurita ) that shows preference for warm waters has been reported to have expanded geographically to more northern areas (in the Aegean, the Adriatic, the Gulf of Lions, and the western Mediterranean), while at the same time, European sardine (Sardina pilchardus ) and sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ) are geographically confined and their populations are declining. Also, an increase of alien species entering into the eastern Mediterranean Sea has been noted. The most important challenge for the future is to evaluate the effect of climate forcing on catch composition and fisheries yields and the socio-economic effects it might have on coastal communities but also to disentangle climate (change and variability) forcing from fishing pressure, which is excessive across the Mediterranean; the declines of highly commercial demersal stocks, such as hake (Merluccius merluccius ), are mostly driven by overfishing rather than climate forcing or the effect of climate may be masked.

The present work is based on discussions of the ICES Working Group on “Small Pelagic Fishes, their Ecosystems and Climate Impact” (WGSPEC).

4. Climate effects on fisheries in the central-western Mediterranean Sea 1,2 Francesco Colloca

1 National Research Council - Institute for Coastal Marine Environment (CNR- IAMC) Mazara del Vallo, Italy. 2 Department of Biology and Biotechnology, Sapienza University of Rome. Rome, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]

The ecosystem of the Mediterranean is rapidly changing due to the combined effects of intensive fishing exploitation, climate forcing and the rapid expansion of non-

40 indigenous species. Although the current overexploitation of fisheries resources is well documented there is still a poor knowledge on the role played by the ongoing climate change on the abundance and productivity of commercial stocks. Along the western coasts of Italy (GSA 9: Ligurian and North Tyrrhenian Sea) the recent increases of water temperature are producing contrasting effects on key stocks of fish and shellfish. Cold-temperate species such as European hake appear negatively affected by elevated sea-surface temperatures in spring-summer especially if coupled with a reduced water circulation. On the other hand, the subtropical deep-water rose shrimp ( Parapenaeus longirostris ) shows a positive trend in abundance along with a rapid latitudinal range expansion. Results of recent studies are presented and commented in relation to the main management implications.

5. Morocco: at the front door of tropical waters. Divergent bottom fish communities in contrasted ecosystems Hicham Masski

National institute of fisheries research (INRH). Casablanca, Morocco. E-mail: [email protected]

The rise of sea temperature is predicted to induce shifts in the latitudinal distribution of fish, pushing their ranges towards the poles. This may influence fish abundance and fish communities’ composition and structure, and alter food webs. Morocco has its Atlantic ecosystems at the front door of tropical waters southerly, and in contact with the Mediterranean northerly through the Strait of Gibraltar. The warming of the Moroccan waters during the last four decades was demonstrated, changes in Moroccan Atlantic fish communities may impact the Mediterranean Sea.

Morocco has a coastline of 450 km in the westernmost Mediterranean Sea, and 3000 km in the Atlantic. These waters home contrasted marine ecosystems with specific identities. At the southern Atlantic coast, the Saharan bank (21–26°N) is a highly productive upwelling subtropical ecosystem at the borderline with tropical waters of Mauritania. The Northern Atlantic ecosystem (29.3–35.3°N) is a mud-shelf ecosystem with more than 40 percent of the shelf bottom which gives no access to trawling. Finally comes the oligotrophic Mediterranean ecosystem which is widely opened to trawling. Bottom fish communities from the shelf (0–200m) of these three ecosystems are mainly subtropical (57 to 68 percent of the species). The Mediterranean and the North Atlantic have close numbers of temperate (17 percent) and tropical species (7 and 5 percent respectively). The three ecosystems share 31 percent of their fish species, and 23 percent of the species are shared by two of the three ecosystems. Nevertheless, the composition of these three communities appears clearly different, what is shown by the dissimilarity analyses (NMDS) of species occurrences in the bottom trawl surveys conducted by INRH during the period 2000 and 2012. Previous analyses on community structure of the Atlantic ecosystems have shown that the structuring of the bottom communities is constrained by fishing activities, mainly trawling. The structuring of the Mediterranean communities which resulted from the analyses of the 11 bottom trawl

41 surveys conducted between 2000 and 2012 (STATIS-Coa), show more complex patterns with weak explained variances (GAMs). The re-construction of independent variables such as seabed composition, fishing effort and SST may improve these results.

The change in fish communities in the Moroccan Atlantic waters is ineluctable and remain unpredictable, and the way that these changes may affect the Mediterranean depends on the permissiveness of the Strait of Gibraltar. Fishing, as a major structuring factor may play a central role in the upcoming changes.

6. Climate impact on Italian fisheries (Mediterranean Sea) Tomaso Fortibuoni

National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics - OGS, Oceanography Division. Trieste, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]

Global warming is increasingly affecting marine ecosystems and ecological services they provide (Weatherdon et al. 2016). One of the major consequences is a shift in species geographical distribution (range shifts are commonly towards higher latitudes and deeper waters), which may affect resources availability to fisheries. Thus, landings may change in relation to global warming (Teixeira et al. 2014), and this may induce changes in the intensity and spatial distribution of fishing effort (Haynie and Pfeiffer 2012). The exposure of a fishing community will be greatest where other pressures (e.g. overfishing) are already stressing the social-ecological system (Miller et al. 2010). Also, fish stocks, if already overexploited, are more strongly affected by climate change (e.g. Planque et al. 2010).

We computed the mean temperature of the catch (MTC; Cheung et al. 2013) for Italian landings (Mediterranean Sea) from 1972 to 2012 to test if an increase of warmer-water species against colder-water ones was observed. We further analysed the relationship among MTC, landings, fishing effort and climatic factors (sea surface temperature – SST and winter North Atlantic Oscillation index – NAO) through a Linear Mixed Models approach.

The MTC in Italian waters increased at a rate of 0.12 °C per decade in the last 40 years, without considering the effect of SST. The result is probably underestimated since several psychrophilous and thermophilous species were not included in the analysis. However, a change towards warmer-water species has already occurred in Italian marine catches. Conversely, total landings temporal dynamics seem mostly driven by changes in fishing effort rather than by MTC and climatic factors. SST resulted to be the most relevant driver in driving MTC temporal changes, and the relationship between MTC and SST showed a high spatial variability both in terms of strength and sign, being positively stronger in southernmost areas while negative in the northernmost basin. Though, by considering the influence of sea surface temperature (SST), the strongest increase (0.31 °C) was estimated in southernmost areas, while in the northernmost basin (Northern Adriatic Sea) a decrease of 0.14 °C was observed.

A similar result for the Adriatic Sea was found by Pranovi et al. (2016), who concluded that in the Adriatic (one of the coldest areas in the Mediterranean basin) a moderate increase in SST is favouring the cold-water species (warmer conditions and their effects on the ecosystems, such as the increase in productivity).

Some preliminary results reporting European sprat (Sprattus sprattus ) spatial distribution temporal changes in the Adriatic Sea (GSA 17) are also reported. European sprat is a cold water species (Atlantic relict) with a preferred temperature of 12 °C. The latitudinal centre of gravity (Engelhard et al. 2011) was computed for the species on the basis of International bottom trawl survey in the Mediterranean (MEDITS) data for the period 1994–2011. A northward shift of approximately 1° was observed, and the latitudinal centre of gravity resulted significantly correlated with SST, meaning that increasing temperatures observed in the basin were associated with a more northern distribution.

Finally, an example of potential implication of ocean warming on a local community is reported. Based on Pranovi et al. (2013), we show that e decline of cold-water species was observed in the Venice lagoon (Italy) through the years, and a significant inverse correlation with SST was observed. Since most target species (e.g. Crangon crangon , Platichthys flesus ) of Venetian artisanal fisheries have a cold or temperate affinity, this study highlights the vulnerability of fishery in the Venice lagoon to climate change.

7. Climate change impacts on the Egyptian coastal zone 4 Alaa Eldin Ahmed El-Haweet

Arab Academy for Science. Email: [email protected]

The climate of Egypt is that of the Arid Mediterranean region, the coastal belt falling under the maritime influence of the Mediterranean Sea. The dominant feature of Egypt’s Northern coastal zone is the low lying delta of the River Nile, with its large cities, industry, agriculture and tourism. Egypt’s Mediterranean coast and the Nile Delta have been identified as highly vulnerable to climate change induced Sea Level Rise (SLR), the low coastal lands and the reliance on the Nile delta for prime agricultural land, coastal inundation or saline intrusion caused by anthropogenic climate change induced sea-level rise will have a direct and critical impact on Egypt’s entire economy.

The most important marine fishing ground in Egypt is the Mediterranean coast in front of the River Nile delta. Coastal ecosystems are highly productive containing rich fishery resources which provide enormous economic productivity. Overfishing of native species facilitate the success of alien species. The pressure exerted on the larval and juvenile stages of various coastal species. Changes in the salinity, productivity and

4 Mr El-Haweet could not participate in the meeting but he submitted his abstract and presentation.

43 temperature of the Mediterranean Sea (Climate change) could increase the suitability of this area for increasing the niche overlap between this invader and native species. The eastern Mediterranean Sea is characterized by low fish diversity that could in part explain the success and the steady increase of Lessepsian migrants. Many factors influencing the success of the species with respect to their migration, spreading and establishment, e.g. changes in the environmental conditions (tropicalization of the Mediterranean) if global warming was to affect the Mediterranean sea-water temperature, then tropical alien species would gain a distinct advantage over the native fauna.

The Egyptian coastal lagoons are among the most productive natural systems in Egypt and they are internationally renowned for their abundant bird life. Approximately 10 percent of Egypt’s annual fish catch is from three main Delta lagoons, namely Idku, Burullus and Manzalla. Fishing is mainly done by trammel net or traps. Expected impacts of SLR on the Egyptian coastal lagoons include saline sea water intrusion farther into the northern delta, disappearance of weed swamps, adverse impacts on infrastructure facilities directly exposed to the sea, and reduction in fishery yields.

Aquaculture is the largest single source of fish supply in Egypt accounting for almost 75 percent of the total fish production of the country; most aquaculture activities are located in the Nile Delta Region with fish farms usually found clustered in the areas surrounding the four Delta lagoons. Fish hatcheries are also generally located in the vicinity of the fish farms. The impact of climate change on aquaculture is believed to add stress due to increased temperature and oxygen demands; uncertain supplies of freshwater; extreme weather events.

Many studies had recommended implementing innovative and environmentally friendly measures that facilitate/promote adaptation in the Nile Delta, and establish a monitoring and assessment framework and knowledge management systems on adaptation.

8. The socio-economic impacts of the Lagocephalus sceleratus on Turkish fishers: Is it important enough to take into account? 1*, 1 Vahdet Ünal Huriye Göncüo ğlu Bodur

1Faculty of Fisheries, Ege University. Bornova, İzmir, Turkey. Email: [email protected]

Increased invasive species is one of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries. The silver-cheeked toadfish, Lagocephalus sceleratus (Gmelin, 1789) believed to enter the Mediterranean due to the climate change. It is enlisted as one of the worst invasive species in the Mediterranean. It appeared for the first time in Turkish waters in 2003 in overall Mediterranean. Since then it has negatively affected fishers, and became a major concern for them. Although this is not a surprising issue and indicated by the FAO- EastMed project that the silver-cheeked toadfish has caused economic damage on passive fishing gears, there are only two studies directly focus on the topic, mainly

44 because of these impacts are challenging to quantify. This presentation will provide comparative results of the relevant studies carried out to assess the socio-economic impacts of L. sceleratus on small-scale fishers operating along the Turkish coast. These are based on a dataset collected for the different years (2011 and 2013) using face-to- face interviews with 261 fishers for the first study and 215 fishers for the second study. Both of the studies were conducted by the same researchers at the same seven coastal cities along the Mediterranean-Aegean coast of Turkey in order to understand the proportion and the direction of the impact-change, after two years. The results of the existing studies indicate that the negative effects of silver-cheeked toadfish on small scale fishers continue to increase. Almost all of the fishers (97 percent) stated that this species damages their fishing gears and the fish entangled to these fishing gears. The estimated monetary loss in 2013–2014 increased by more than double (approx. 5 million Euros) compared to the 2011–2012 period (approx. 2 million Euros). In conclusion, there is an urgent need for policies and measures (e.g. bounty system, permission of fishing in certain time of the year) to eliminate or mitigate the negative effects of the silver-cheeked toadfish on fishers. Further studies should be implemented to monitor the association and interaction between silver-toad fish, other species, the ecosystem, and the socio-economic impact of the pufferfish.

9. The mechanism of crew-share system and its use as livelihood indicator Dario Pinello

NISEA Fishery and Aquaculture Research Organisation. Salerno, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]

Fishing is a labour-intensive activity and consequently labour is one of its primary costs, labour costs refer to remuneration. For most ﬁsheries around the world, and throughout history, remuneration has been made using some form of a crew-share payment, where the crew receives a share of the gross returns.

Reference to the crew-share scheme as dominant method of payment in fisheries is made in studies of the 18th century and more recent literature suggests that crew-share systems have continued to be the dominant method of payment in fisheries and this is particularly the case in small-scale fisheries.

The predominance of crew-share system in ﬁsheries contrasts with other industries where a variety of ﬁxed wage systems are some of the many remuneration systems used.

The diversity of crew-share systems can be distilled into two main forms, on the basis of the importance of costs in the overall turnover of the activity. The crew-share portion is divided into shares that vary according to customs, but generally there are more shares than crew members and this allows for di ﬀerent rates of pay according to position and responsibility

The crew-share system is prevalent in fisheries because it i) allows for risk sharing; ii) enhances productivity by providing incentives; iii) solves the principal−agent problem by providing incentives when the owner cannot monitor the worker; iv) reflects the straightforward nature of the accounting and the on-the-deck conditions in which fisheries operate; and v) it is also a matter of tradition and culture. Under the crew-share system, remuneration embodies the most important socio- economic characteristics of a fishery: it is an indicator of economic performance as well as an indicator of the contribution made by fisheries to the livelihoods of fishers, in the form of remuneration and employment. These characteristics make remuneration an indicator that is able to best capture any change in the productivity of fishing.

10. An overview of climate change implications for fisheries in the Black Sea Vesselina Mihneva

Institute of Fish Resources. Varna, Bulgaria. E-mail: [email protected]

The presentation provides information about the recent knowledge on the major climate change impacts in the Black Sea region - sea level rise, increase of sea surface temperatures (SST) after 1980s, decrease of sea surface salinity (SSS), changes in water circulation and in the thermocline structure, decrease in oxygen/anoxic boundary. Basic information, regarding the Black Sea fisheries, is shown - main fish species, landings, number of fishing vessels and employment in industry, Gross Value Added (GVA) aiming to unravel the sector vulnerabilities under the climate change impacts. Some non-climate stressors, affecting the Black Sea ecosystem in long-term run, are studied for possible interplay with climate change effects. Problems in fisheries management and possible future management objectives are considered.

11. Black Sea climate and fisheries: an ecosystem perspective Georgi M. Daskalov

Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, IBER-BAS. Sofia, Bulgaria. E-mail: [email protected]

Over several decades the depletion of apex predators, blooms of microalgae and jellyplankton, and heavy fishing resulted in series of regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment in the Black Sea. Causal pathways by which climate, fishing and foodweb interactions provoke regime shifts have been investigated. Evidence linked Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing and blooms of invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi , have shaped variability of fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the foodweb via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a delayed change in competitor jelly-plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea’s hierarchical

46 ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both climate change and overfishing, that drive fish stocks to collapse. When climate driven decline of stocks is confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The modern approach should involve end-to-end ecosystem data and models integrating hydroclimate, water dynamics and ecosystem processes to unravel the underlying causality and mechanisms and find ways to reverse regime shifts. A management approach aiming at restoring ecosystem hierarchy that might mitigate the costly consequences of regime shifts is needed in future.

12. Effect climate change and invasive ctenophores Mnemiopsis leidyi and Beroe ovata on commercial fish species including their eggs and larvae in the Black Sea Tamara A. Shiganova

P. P. Shirshov Institute of oceanology RAS. Moscow, Russian Federation. E-mail: [email protected]

The Black Sea is semi-enclosed, non-tidal and meromictic (i.e. permanently stratified by a pycno-halocline) basin, with relatively low salinity (12-22) and a thin (60–200 m) oxygenated surface layer overlying waters dominated by hydrogen sulfide. The thinness of the oxygenated layer makes the ecosystem of the Black Sea very vulnerable to environmental changes.

From the 1970s, anthropogenic effects turned the Black Sea into one of the most polluted and mismanaged water bodies. Among the proximate causes of severe environmental and ecosystem degradation were: regulation of major rivers; increased riverine inflows of phosphate, nitrate and organic matter due to heavy usage of fertilizers for agriculture, which led to increased phytoplankton growth including blooms of harmful species (primary production doubled over the entire sea, and increased by one order of magnitude in the northwest); eutrophication-led outbursts of native gelatinous plankton, i.e. scyphomedusa Aurelia aurita (L. 1758) and pyrrophyte alga Noctiluca scintillans (Macartney) Kofoid & Swezy; overfishing of predator fish and dolphins; intensification of shipping; introduction of non-native species; and climate-driven changes.

Because of environmental disturbances and increasing propagule pressure from different sources in the early 1980s, many non-native species became established in the Black Sea, the most harmful being the carnivorous ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi A. Agassiz 1865 (Vinogradov et al. 1989). That species was transported into the Black Sea in ballast waters of ships from the Gulf of Mexico (Ghabooli, Shiganova et al. 2010, Reusch et al. 2010), spread around the sea, and reached high abundances that caused cascading effects on most components of the ecosystem. Bottom-up effects included collapsing planktivorous fish, and vanishing large pelagic fish species and dolphins.

Top-down effects included (Shiganova et al. 2004): decreased zooplankton diversity and stocks (maximum annual zooplankton biomasses declined to ca. 0.5 mg C m-3, i.e. almost two orders of magnitude lower than during the previous period); increased phytoplankton biomasses, because of decreased grazing pressure from zooplankton; increased bacterioplankton, favoured by the higher production of phytoplankton exudates, and increased heterotrophic flagellates and ciliates, which fed on bacteria (Shiganova et al., in press). By the late 1980s, the pelagic ecosystem had become dominated by gelatinous species (Shiganova et al. 2004). From the Black Sea, M. leidyi and other invasive species expanded into the Sea of Azov, the Sea of Marmara, and the eastern and western Mediterranean, and was introduced into the Caspian Sea in ballast waters from the Black Sea (Shiganova et al. 2001).

The Black Sea became the main region donor for the Sea of Azov and the Caspian Sea non-native species (Shiganova, 2009). Effect on these seas ecosystem and fishery is even more tremendous.

The sizes of M. leidyi populations were not controlled by any predator until 1997. In 1997 predator of M. leidyi, Beroe ovata arrived in the Black Sea in ballast waters from North American coastal areas (Konsulov & Kamburska 1998, Seravin et al. 2002).

After the arrival of B. ovata , the Black Sea ecosystem began to recover (Shiganova et al. 2014, Finenko et al. 2003). An additional factor that favoured the recovery of the ecosystem was decreasing eutrophication, resulting from reduced anthropogenic nutrient inputs (Cociasu et al. 2008). This was accompanied by a decrease in total phytoplankton biomass, with harmful algae blooms becoming rarer and less intense. The combination of these factors in the late 1990s led to a general improvement of the ecosystem (Oguz & Velikova 2010).

However, abundances of the two ctenophores, time and duration of their development depends on environmental conditions mainly temperature and food (zooplankton for M. leidyi and M. leidyi for B. ovata ). Although the same combined reproductive sequences of M. leidyi and B. ovata took place year after year from 1999 until 2016 but value of abundances depends on temperature and zooplankton biomass of current year.

In spite of positive trend M. leidyi still has effect on fish eggs and larvae during intensive development while B. ovata is absent yet. But this period is lasting one or two months now and spawning and development of fish eggs and larvae continue afterwards.

One more negative event appeared during last years. Aurelia aurita abundance again increases in spring and autumn before spring development of M. leidyi population and after its population drop grazed by B. ovata.

In spite of recovering of some trophic levels of pelagic ecosystem both invasive ctenophores and native jellyfish Aurelia aurita are still acting as the main stressors of pelagic ecosystem functioning of the Black Sea and according to the state of zooplankton stock, gelatinous species bloom scale did not reach GES in most of the areas of the Black Sea.

In addition, during last two decades with increasing temperature SST and CIL in the Black Sea Mediterranean species fish and even Lessepsian migrants began to migrate in the Black Sea, and some of them established among them occurs harmful species.

13. The climate change effects on the biodiversity and fishery in Turkish Marine waters. Cemal Turan

Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Marine Sciences and Technology, Iskenderun Technical University. Iskenderun, Hatay, Turkey. E-mail: [email protected]

The climate change effects the biodiversity and fishery in the eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Sea coasts of Turkey. The surface sea water temperatures, salinity, sea-level rise of the Turkish marine waters are gradually increasing for last decades that change the distribution and productivity of marine fish species. In parallel, the number of Indo-Pacific species has rapidly increased for the last decades that caused increased invasion of the indo-Pacific species and significant shift of biodiversity in the Mediterranean and Aegean Sea parts of Turkey.

The impacts of Lessepsian species on their new environment include; restructuring established food webs, competition with native organisms for food and space and altering the gene pool when the invading species replace with native species. The Mediterranean coasts of Turkey are the most effected region of Lessepsian invasion due to being the first receiving waters of the Lessepsian migrants and harbouring the highest number of Lessepsian species.

This settlement of process of the Indo-Pacific species is probably accelerated and/or facilitated by global climate change, overfishing of native species and competition between native and Lessepsian species for food and space. Nowadays, the occurrence of the Atlantic-Mediterranean and Indo-Pacific originated species in the Marmara and Black Seas can also be an important indicator of the process of Mediterranization of the Marmara and Black Seas. There are high economic and social consequences of Lessepsian migration in Turkish marine waters that some Lessepsian species damage fishing gears and cause the mandatory alteration of fishing gear for that region. Lessepsian jellyfish blooms also give high damage to purse seiners, trawlers and nets whereat fishermen leave the fishing activities in the bloom time. Some of Lessepsian species have good meat quality and high economic importance for fishermen and public. On the other hand, some Lessepsians species are poisoning and highly

49 venomous. Therefore, vulnerability assessments should be conducted for improving adaptation planning, raising awareness of risks and opportunities.

14. Fisheries and Aquaculture Adaptation Toolbox Florence Poulain

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources Division, Email: [email protected]

The presentation on the "Fisheries and Aquaculture Adaptation Toolbox" will review fishery commitments under global and national climate change instruments, explain the rise of adaptation and the role of FAO in providing technical knowledge and expertise. Finally, it will present an overview of some of the existing adaption methods and tools to respond to climate change impacts.

15. Climate change mitigation: Adaptation measures in Mediterranean Sea Manuel Hidalgo

Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga. Málaga, Spain. E-mail: [email protected]

The presentation reviews the available information of existing and recommended adaptation actions to the diverse impacts of climate change (CC) in the Mediterranean fisheries activities and harvested resources. The review starts presenting the adaptation measures for fisheries activities proposed by several countries in their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). The presentation also revises additional adaptation measures for coastal areas highly dependent of the small scale and traditional fisheries such the development and mapping of vulnerability indices, risk analyses, DRMs, technical measures (coastal restoration/rehabilitation or living shorelines approach), or improved diversity of the livelihood portfolio and the enforcement of the capacity building and the co-creation frameworks. Finally, it also reviews the most important adaptation measures in marine large stocks, and how they are aligned with the measures included in the mid- term strategy 2017-2020 of the GFCM. Particularly, the presentation stresses the important relevance of the transboundary fisheries research, assessment and management, as well as the application of an improved spatial planning.

16. Climate change mitigation: Adaptation measures in Black Sea Vesselina Mihneva

Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. Sofia, Bulgaria. E-mail: [email protected]

This presentation provides an overview of the existing and recommended adaptation measures as regards the climate changes in Black Sea region. Special attention is devoted to the technical measures - mapping and modelling the threatened regions, the interconnection between national authorities, stakeholders´ involvement. Current problematic areas are outlined and need of regionalisation in future strategies elaboration is considered, that should be based on three main pillars - protection, accommodation and retreat. Accent is put on the need of capacity building at several levels - individual, organisational and institutional, which together with lack of well-

50 planned funding and relatively limited international cooperation and transboundary activities present critical items for managing and coping with climate change effects.

17. Long-term Environmental Parameters Forecasting and Ecological Modelling Gianpaolo Coro

Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell’Informazione A. Faedo – National Research Council of Italy (CNR). Rome, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]

Forecasting environmental parameters in the far future requires complex modelling and large computational resources, which address fluid-dynamics processes of air and ocean currents, correlation between physical parameters (e.g. temperature, pressure, and wind), and human-related factors.

Long-term forecasts of environmental data are rare and published by few organisations. Among these, good quality forecasts are published by the AquaMaps Consortium and by NASA after combining weather forecast models and present real observations. These data are estimated under different scenarios of fossil and non-fossil energy sources exploitation, Greenhouse gases emissions, and economic and global population growth (RCP and IPCC scenarios).

Forecasted environmental information is crucial in ecological modelling and ecological niche modelling, for example to study the variations of species’ habitat suitability over time. However, in these applications the heterogeneity of these data demands using large computational facilities to prepare, process, compare, and re-publish the data. Further, in order to extend their usage and guarantee their longevity, FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Re-usable) should be followed. Finally, due to the complexity of the forecasted scenarios, the estimated environmental values are unlikely to be accurate. Nevertheless, it is possible to extract general patterns in these variations and in their effects on species’ distributions and fisheries.

In this presentation, we show how we prepared, processed, and published forecasted environmental variables extracted from the AquaMaps and NASA data by relying on a Cloud computing system that is compliant with FAIR principles. Also, we show how we inferred global patterns and trends of Climate Change from these products, which were not directly visible in the original data. We analyse these patterns in several ocean areas, including the Mediterranean Sea, and highlight their environmental responses to Climate Change. Further, we show how we used these data to estimate general categories of shifts in species’ habitats in 2050 and to predict the spread of invasive species in a certain area, e.g. the spread of the pufferfish Lagocephalus sceleratus (Gmelin 1789) in the Mediterranean Sea. Finally, we comment about using these data to estimate the impact of Climate Change on fisheries.

18. What future for the Mediterranean fish fauna facing climate change? Part of the answers by multi-scale modelling of ecological niches Frida Ben Rais Lasram

Université Littoral Côte d’Opale, Université Lille, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences. Wimereux, France. E-mail: [email protected]

The impacts of climate change are particularly critical in closed or semi-enclosed ecosystems such as the Mediterranean Sea which, despite its small size, hosts a high biodiversity and an important rate of endemism. The Mediterranean Sea is also strongly affected by fishing. These threats cause the decline or migration of marine species, particularly coastal ones, on which fisheries depend. In the southern Mediterranean, the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia) is an archetypal ecosystem where all the disturbances observed at the regional level, particularly climate change and fishing, act in synergy. It is therefore even more important to be able to robustly predict species responses to climate change. For this purpose, ecological niche models (ENM) prove to be effective tools.

Within our research network, we modeled, using ENMs, the distribution areas of 288 fish species with a particular interest in endemic species and projected their potential thermal habitats to 2041-2060 and 2070-2099. We also explored changes in size and degree of species specialization. We then adopted the concept of hierarchical filters to make a downscaling on the Gulf of Gabes as well as probabilistic trophic models to explore trophic consequences of climate change.

Projections at the regional scale of the Mediterranean Sea revealed winning species, losing species and a “cul de sac” effect in the coldest areas. In addition, it appeared that fishing, by taking large species, would act in synergy with climate change by inducing extinctions. At the local scale of the Gulf of Gabes, projections showed that the magnitudes of changes in ranges caused by climate change are wider than those resulting from habitat loss alone. This confirms that climate is a major determinant of distributions of marine species even at a local scale such as that of the Gulf of Gabes.

19. Habitat from plankton to fish for monitoring current climate change impacts on high trophic levels Jean-Noël Druon

European Commission – Joint Research Centre, Directorate D – Sustainable Resources. Unit D.02 Water and Marine Resources. Ispra, Italy. E-mail: jean- [email protected]

The JRC explores the potentials of a satellite-derived index (the Ocean Productivity index for Fish - OPFish) at the EU scale to represent the production of high trophic level communities (fish) and its variability after current climate change. The OPFish uses the daily detection of productive oceanic features from ocean colour satellite sensors at 5 km resolution as a proxy for food availability to fish populations. These productive features, such as eddies or gyres, were shown to attract fish and top predators (Druon et al. 2017, 2016, 2015, 2012) as they are active long enough (from weeks to months) to allow the development of mesozooplankton populations (Druon et al. in prep.). Potentially eutrophicated waters, which mostly correspond to disrupted food chains, are excluded by removing high daily levels of chlorophyll-a contents (daily content above 10 mg CHL.m -3).

The satellite monitoring of productive fronts allows identifying the favourable feeding habitat of key marine species as well as the overall capacity of the marine environment

52 to sustain high trophic level communities (OPFish). Time-series provide insights of current climate change impacts on potential fish productivity such as the increased seasonal and inter-annual variability of OPFish levels and substantial regional disparities of productivity trends (up to ~±7 percent / decade in the Mediterranean and Black Seas) which may affect fish growth and recruitment. The OPFish also shows a shift of productivity trend for the Mediterranean basin in 2011, which is now positive as are the European Seas and global ocean trends. At the species level, a study on hake nurseries’ habitat in the Mediterranean Sea highlighted a substantial increase of sea bottom temperature at depth from 30 to 400 m (+0.33 °C / decade) that will likely lead to their deepening in the future and favour changes in fish communities.

Appendix VIII

Background document on the climate change implications for Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries

Climate change implications for fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea

Manuel Hidalgo Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga, Muelle Pesquero s/n, Fuengirola (Málaga) 29640, Spain.

Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centre Oceanogràfic de les Balears, Moll de Ponent s/n, 07015 Palma (Balearic Islands), Spain. [email protected]

Table of Contents

1. Key messages 2. Basic fisheries of the regions 3. Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine environment relevant to fisheries 3.1. Physical & chemical 3.2. Biological & ecological 4. Climate change effects on stocks sustaining the main fisheries 4.1. Distribution, abundance, seasonality, fisheries production 4.2. Non-climate stressors. 5. Implications for food security, livelihoods and economic development 5.1. Consequences on fisheries management and fishing activities 5.2. Communities and livelihoods 5.3. Wider society and economy implications. 6. Synthesis of vulnerability/opportunities of the main fisheries and the dependent communities/economies . 7. Responses and adaptation measures 7.1. Existing regional initiatives 7.2. National responses 7.3. Relevant challenges and potential guidelines 8. References

1. Key messages

• Fisheries are highly multi-species and multi-fleet, with pelagic species being the most important in terms of landings and the most likely to be affected by future changes in distribution and abundance. Small-scale fisheries (SSF) are the dominant fleet and are also expected to be highly vulnerable to climate change (CC) impacts. About 85 percent of the stocks regularly assessed are currently overexploited.

• Sea water warming, increasing heatwaves recurrence, decrease precipitation and see level rise are very likely over the whole Mediterranean basin, with changes in the thermoahaline and mesoscale circulation, and winter weather events, likely at regional scale.

• ‘Meridionalization ’ (increasing occurrence of warms species towards northern regions) and ‘tropicalization ’ (progressive expansion extension of non-native tropical species) in the Mediterranean are strengthened by warming and have positive and negative impacts on SSF.

• Geographic gradients (eastern – western Mediterranean) in rate of warming and changes in primary production are very likely and allow projecting biogeographical changes in certain species and fish diversity, which will increase in the eastern Mediterranean and decrease in the western towards midcentury.

• Changes in primary production and runoff will negatively affect the optimum habitats for small pelagic fish in the Mediterranean.

• Although temporal changes in the structure of demersal communities have been reported in the last decades at a basin scale, likely changes in primary production, thermoahaline circulation, and winter whether events will affect demersal species at regional scale. However, the high geographic heterogeneity of environmental processes affecting demersal species and the difficulties of regional oceanographic models to provide projections for these drivers challenge regional species-specific projections.

• Warming and the expected increase of Atlantic water entering into the Mediterranean will likely affect migrations of large pelagic fish and their spawning behaviour and geographic patterns.

• There is a geographic segregation in the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries to CC, higher in south and southeast developing countries given the higher impact of warming and arrival of non-indigenous species, and their lower ability to respond to impacts. Vulnerability in the western Mediterranean countries is also important given the expected higher decrease in primary production and runoff - this makes developing countries of the western basin particularly vulnerable.

• Most of new opportunities (and problems) will emerge in the SSF and the related communities that may increase yields due to changes is species composition of catches, particularly in the eastern Mediterranean, but also yield (and revenue) variability. However, it is still uncertain how the diversity of fish opportunities will buffer the negative impacts, and how local markets and traditions will positivity adapt to new species. The arrival of non- indigenous species will also trigger problems in fisheries based on native species.

• Numerous regional initiatives (GFCM, FAO Regional projects ant Networks, Blue Growth, Blue Belt) embrace short term measures to reverse the current overexploitation of fish stocks with a diversity of medium and long term actions to adapt marine ecosystems, services and socio-economical activities to CC impacts. Transboundary research, assessment and management strategies are needed, based on cross national involvement of stakeholders and the improvement of the capacity building of developing countries.

• Current National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and National Determined Contributions (NDCs) show a heterogeneous level of detail of the adaptive measures to be applied to fisheries, and a general lack of reference to fisheries. Adaptation measures adopted by some countries include: improved monitoring programs, prioritizing the use of fish for human consumption, increasing the volume of products utilized and commercialized, increased understanding of ecological mechanisms and socioeconomic impacts of CC, development of educational programs, and specific technical actions on species and habitats.

55 2. Basic fisheries of the regions. The Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries are highly heterogeneous in the number of species harvested, number of fleets, complex socio-economic elements and governance over the riparian countries, including developed and developing countries from Europe, Asia and Africa. The dominant fisheries fleet segment in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions (80 percent) are the small scale vessels (i.e. polyvalent vessels up to 12 m length), while other relevant fleets in terms of catches have secondary importance in terms of number of boats: trawlers (12- 14 m; 6 percent), polyvalent vessels (>12 m, 4 percent), purse seiners (>12 m; 3.5 percent), and longlines (> 6 m, 2 percent). From those, trawlers land the resources with the highest value, purse seiners have the highest landings and small-scale vessels employ the highest number of fishers. These approximately 92 700 vessels comprising these fleets are heterogeneously distributed over the region with the eastern Mediterranean accounting 28 percent in the eastern Mediterranean, 27 percent in the Ionian Sea, 19 percent in the western Mediterranean, 14 percent in the Adriatic Sea and the 12 percent in the Black Sea. At country level, Turkey, Greece, Italy and Tunisia, in decreasing order of importance, account for more than 60 percent of the total number of vessels (FAO. 2016a).

There are 13 main species of fisheries resources that contribute to the 65 percent of landings in the region. These species comprise mainly small and medium pelagic fish, but also large pelagic and demersal fish and molluscs. Those are in decreasing order of landings: Engraulis encrasicolus, Sardina pilchardus , Trachurus spp, Sprattus sprattus, Sardinella spp, Chamelea gallina, Boops boops, Merluccius merluccius, Mugilidae, Sarda sarda, Mytilus galloprovincialis, Thunnus thynnus, Clupeonella, cultriventris. Anchovy, sardine and herrings are the dominant species and account for more than 50 percent of the total landings. At subregional level, the contribution of small and medium pelagic fish is highest in the Black Sea with only anchovy accounting for more than 60 percent, followed by the Adriatic Sea and the Western Mediterranean in which the sardine is the species with the highest landings, particularly in the Adriatic (ca. 45 percent of sardine in landings) (Fig. 1, FAO 2016a). The Ionian and Eastern Mediterranean Sea are, by contrast, dominated by a diverse group of species, mainly demersal, not included in the list of the main 13 species. This evidences the relevance of the highly multispecific small-scale fishery in these subregions, with the multispecies group accounting for 80 percent and 70 percent of landings in the Ionian Sea and eastern Mediterranean respectively. The unique demersal species included in the above-mentioned list, the European hake, shows relevant contribution to landings (close to 10 percent) only in two subregions: western and eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Fig. 1. Percentage of landing per species for the 5 GFCM subregions: 1, western Mediterranean; 2, Adriatic Sea; 3, Ionian Sea; 4, Eastern Mediterranean; and 5, Black Sea. ANE, Engraulis encrasicolus ; PIL, Sardina pilchardus ; JAX, Trachurus spp; SPR, Sprattus sprattus ; SIX, Sardinella spp; SVE, Chamelea gallina ; MZZ, Unallocated osteichthyes; OTH; Other species (adapted from FAO, 2016a).

From the socio-economic perspective, the total value of landings across the the Mediterranean and the Black Sea is estimated around USD 3.09 billion employing one-quarter million people. From this total revenue, the western Mediterranean is the subregion with the highest landing value (USD 1.57 billion), followed by the Ionian Sea (USD 1.41 billion), the eastern Mediterranean (USD 1.07 billion), the Adriatic Sea (USD 979 million) and the Black Sea (USD 691 million). However, looking at the average price per tonne, there is a clear difference between the European areas (Ionian Sea USD 3 902, the western Mediterranean USD 394, and the Adriatic USD 3 849) that double the prize respect the Black Sea (USD 1 516) and eastern Mediterranean (USD 1 893) in which fisheries represent an very important contribution to the regional economies. The fleets having the highest landing value are trawlers, purse seiners and polyvalent small-scale vessels with engine with USD 761 million, USD 549 million and USD 438 million, respectively.

Contrasting to sustainable exploitation of most of Atlantic fish stocks (Fernandes et al. 2017), numerous stewardships documents reported that more than 62 percent of Mediterranean fish stocks are currently considered overexploited (FAO 2016b). However, regional assessment addressing scientific advice (General Fisheries of the Mediterranean, GFCM) provides higher exploitation rates (FAO 2016a) (Fig. 2). From all species, demersal fish show comparatively higher fishing mortality rates compared to pelagic species (STECF 2017). In this worrying situation, hake stocks show the highest fishing mortality with rates between 5 and 10 times higher that optimal target (STECF 2017). Under this worrying situation, the European Commission lunched recently the campaign MEDFISH4EVER e to provide a strong political framework to achieve long-term sustainable fisheries in the Mediterranean. GFCM has also launched the Mid-Term Strategy 2017-2020 (MTS) to implement new fisheries governance in

e https://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/inseparable/en/medfish4ever , last access 19/09/2017.

57 the Mediterranean Sea to ensure the conservation and sustainable exploitation of living marine resources while protecting habitats and vulnerable species from the fishing. This strategy can be summarized three main action axes: small-scale (artisanal) fisheries, technical conservation measures and multiannual management plans. For the large-scale fisheries, GFCM has the firm commitment to secure their sustainable productivity by promoting the intergovernmental and transboundary cooperation along with the provision of technical assistance among the riparian countries, with particular emphasis to consolidate knowledge base, data collection and analyses, and the mechanisms of development of co-management (more details of the MTS are available in the Section 7).

In addition to all commercial fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea, it is worth noticing the increasing importance of recreational fishery in terms of catches, which contrast with the decline of traditional fisheries (Carreras et al. 2015). In some regions, the pressure on marine resources from the recreational fishing is equivalent to 25 percent of landings of the professional fleet (e.g. Balearic Islands, Cardona and Morales-Nin 2013), which unequivocally evidence the increasing importance of this type fishery.

3. Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine environment relevant to fisheries

3.1 Physical & chemical

The Mediterranean region is known to be as one of the most responsive regions to climate change and, thus, defined as a primary ‘hot-spot’ (Georgi 2006). From the numerous evidences and expectations of climate change in the physic-chemical conditions, we refer here only to those that may have more influence on fisheries. The most reported evidence is the observed and expected progressive surface warming and saltening, along with the increased intensity of heat extreme events (heatwaves) (e.g. Calvo et al. 2011, Vargas-Yañez et al. 2008, 2010, Diffenbaugh et al. 2007) ( high confidence ). This progressive warming and increase in salinity has been also observed in the intermediate and deep water masses along the XX century and early XXI, with higher increasing rates during last decades (Vargas-Yañez et al. 2010). Within this general pattern, the rate of warming trend geographically changed in the Mediterranean with a strong eastward increasing trend from the early 1990s onwards (Skliris et al. 2012) (Fig. 2), when the speed of surface warming considerably increased. In regards the long-term warming trends, it is worth noticing that climate has also natural fluctuations with direct effects on sea surface temperature that are often difficult to disentangle for the warming of anthropogenic origin. This is the case of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a global climate mode that has a cycle periodicity of around 60 years and a clear increasing trend form early 1970s when most of the oldest fisheries statistics in the Mediterranean Sea start to be available (Marullo et al. 2011, Skliris et al. 2012, Macias et al. 2013). It has been proved that, for the recent Mediterranean warming (from early 1990s), 58 percent of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42 percent of total trend variance (Macias et al. 2013).

Fig. 2. Horizontal distribution of satellite-derived SST annual linear trends ( oC yr -1) over (a) 1985-2008 and (b) 1985-1990 (adapted from Skliris et al. 2012).

Surface warming predictions showed that in the period 2070-2099 surface temperature anomalies will increase from +1.73 oC to +2.97 oC respect to the period 1961-1990 (approximately 0.2-0.3 oC decade -1, high confidence, Fig. 3) (Adloff et al. 2015) while surface salinity anomalies will increase from +0.48 to 0.89 ( high confidence, Fig. 3). Models also show that surface warming is not homogenous over the region with the Balearic Islands, the Northwest Ionian, the Aegean and Levantine Seas getting warmer than the average. The salinity anomalies are neither homogeneous with the Aegean basin getting saltier than the rest of the Mediterranean and both Balearic region and North Ionian displaying a weaker response. Numerous studies highlight the increase of frequency of heatwaves (i.e combined hot days above 35˚C) and tropical nights (above 20˚C) will increase by 2021-2050 (Diffenbaugh et al. 2007, Fischer and Schär, 2010, high confidence ). Indeed, models predict that, in the Mediterranean Sea, the number of heatwaves days each summer will increase from about 2 days, as found in the period 1961- 1990, to about 6-24 days in 2021-2050 and to 27-67 days in 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010). All warming and saltening projections are very likely and there is high agreement and robust evidences ( high confidence ). For surface water mass density, models predict a general decrease in the surface potential density because the increase of SSTs prevails on the increase on SSSs (Adloff et al. 2015). However, the surface density predictions are more sensitive to the socio-economic IPCC scenario selected to compare the temperature predictions that show a much reduced uncertainty ( medium confidence ). Despite this relative certainty, warming is expected to augment the stratification in the Mediterranean Sea (high confidence ), with the consequent less availability of nutrients and critical biological implications (e.g. increase in the mass mortality events, Coma et al. 2009).

Fig. 3. Yearly mean time series of sea surface (left) temperature and (right) salinity anomalies (vs. 1961–1990) averaged over the Mediterranean basin for different IPCC scenarios. The spread of the ensemble is shaded in grey (adapted from Adloff et al. 2015).

Density is also expected to change over the whole water column, which may affect water stability, stratification and water masses formation. The formation of intermediate and deep water masses (e.g. north western Mediterranean) will depend on the future frequency and occurrence of winter storms (Somot et al 2016). At a whole Mediterranean scale, the mean density averaged over the whole water column will increase (Adloff et al. 2015, medium to high confidence ). This generally applies to intermediate layers (150-600 m) and deep stratum (600 m to sea bottom). However, there is a clear geographical heterogeneity in the layer 0-150 m, whose predictions depend on the properties of the Atlantic waters entering in the Mediterranean, which appear to be lighter in all simulations (Adloff et al. 2017, high confidence ). These density changes in the surface density will lead to strong increase in the water stratification in the western basin, particularly around the Balearic Islands, and a large and even decrease of stratification in the eastern basin.

Although current regional climate models are not able to provide confident future projections of expected changes in surface circulation due to climate change (low confidence) , the thermohaline and surface circulation are expected to change (Adloff et al. 2015). Near- surface changes in the circulation have been reported in the Balearic region related to changes the penetration of Atlantic waters, as well as the North Ionian region (Adloff et al. 2015). Those changes may alter the formation and structure of stationary fronts and but also the dynamic mesoscale structures of high importance for fisheries (e.g. large pelagic fish, see sections below, Álvarez-Berastegui et al. 2016). However, to date, this must be interpreted cautiously because models used for historical simulations are not realistic at small scales, and they are also sensitive to boundary conditions and the socio-economic IPCC scenario selected.

Sea level rice is also expected to increase due to climate change in the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level decreased in the Mediterranean Sea between 1960s and 1990s due to climate induced changes in the atmospheric pressure (Gomis et al. 2008, Jordà and Gomis 2013), it has been increasing during the last three decades with rate of 2-10 mm year -1 (Tsimplis et al. 2005, Gomis et al. 2008, Vargas-Yáñez et al. 2008). It is expected that from the minimum to a maximum scenario, averaged sea-level rise will be 9.8 and 25.6 cm by 2040-2050 (Galasi amd Spada 2014, high confidence ).

Finally, there are numerous evidences of pH decreasing (i.e. acidification) in the Mediterranean Sea. Given the high potential of Mediterranean water masses to sequestrate anthropogenic CO 2 and their relatively shorter residence time compared with water masses of large oceans, the Mediterranean Sea is highly sensitive to changes in CO 2 and the subsequent

60 acidification (Álvarez et al. 2014). There are fair expectations of continuous pH decreasing: 0.0018 pH unit per year in the northwestern Mediterranean (Meier et al., 2014, Howes et al., 2015) and until 0.0044 in the Mediterranean outflow in the Gibraltar Strait (Flecha et al. 2015). For the next fifty years, there are estimates of 0.002 ±0.001 pH units per year (Geri et al., 2014) although there is high geographic variability on the expected rates over the Mediterranean (Lacoue-Labarthe et al. 2016). All these acidification estimates are of high confidence .

3.2 Biological & ecological

There are numerous evidences of the impact of climate change on marine organisms (from primary producers to apex predators) in the Mediterranean Sea but few studies providing expected projected impacts compared to other ecosystems worldwide. Primary and secondary producers are highly sensitive to environmental variability − mainly hydrography and stability of water column. However, contrasting responses are often observed in different areas of the Mediterranean because most long lasting phytoplankton biomass information are of coastal areas highly impacted by other stressors such as eutrophication, land mobilization or pollution (e.g. Mozeti č et al. 2010, in the Adriatic Sea). The only long time series in open waters is located in the Ligurian Sea (DYFAMED, Marty and Chiaverini 2010) where reported an increase in the phytoplankton biomass of 1.5 mg Chl m -2 yr -1. This rise occurred concomitant to the increase of temperature in the western Mediterranean and an increase in the frequency of mixing events rather than long term stratification periods. At a whole Mediterranean scale and using satellite colour as index of primary production, Colella et al (2016) show a complex geographic pattern with areas with clear increasing trends around the Balearic Islands, south Iberian Peninsula, the Ligurian-Provençal basin, the Rhodes Gyre region, and off the Nile delta. By contrast, a strong negative trend was observed in areas very sensitive to runoff such as north Adriatic Sea or off Rhone River (Fig. 4a). Long term modelling predictions of primary production show also contrasting geographic responses while independent on warming at the entire basin (Macias et al. 2015). These predictions suggest that the western basin will become more oligotrophic associated to a surface density decrease (increase stratification) and due to the influence of the Atlantic waters (Fig. 4b, medium to high confidence ). In the eastern basin, models simulate an increase in surface production linked to a density increase (less stratification) because of the increasing evaporation rate (Macias et al. 2015).

Fig. 4. A) Chl concentration trend over the Mediterranean Sea, relative to 1998–2009 time period (adapted from Colella et al. 2016). B) Mean primary production rate (PPR) anomalies (2095–2099 minus 2015–2019) for simulations run under different IPCC scenarios (ensemble mean) (adapted from Macías et al. 2015).

Zooplankton variability in the Mediterranean Sea are closely related to hydroclimatic fluctuations and often correlated with inter-annual temperature anomalies (e.g. Balearic Islands, Fernandez de Puelles and Molinero; Ligurian Sea, Molinero et al 2008), along with the progressive substitution of copepods species by gelatinous zooplankton (Conversi et al. 2010).

Global models on the pelagic plankton ecosystems predict a general increase in the zooplankton biomass due to the increment in the small size fraction of phytoplankton, suggesting that climate change will favour the smallest components of plankton and strengthening of the microbial loop (Lazzari et al. 2013, Herrmann et al. 2014, medium to high confidence ). At a community level, recent modelling on the Mediterranean zooplankton assemblages shows nested and synchronic decline of species richness that will spatially structure the future community assemblages (Benedetti et al. 2017, low to medium confidence ). Finally, the increasing proliferation of jellyfish (i.e. gelatinous heterotrophic planktonic organism) blooms are one the main ecological consequences partially attributed to climate change with numerous evidences reported all over the Mediterranean Sea (Molinero et al. 2008, Danovaro et al. 2009, Calvo et al. 2011). However, the effects of these proliferations are complex and act in synergy with other anthropogenic impacts such as the exponential increasing in coastal industries and ocean sprawl (Gili et al. 2010, Duarte et al. 2013).

Most of studies reporting the impact of climate change in upper trophic levels in the Mediterranean Sea focus on ocean warming, whose main effects are evident on abundance, survival, growth, fertility/reproduction, migration and phenology (reviewed by Marbà et al. 2015 from 464 studies), with most of these evidences reported for the north of the Mediterranean basin. According to this review, abundance and reproductive rates show the fastest response to warning, followed by survival and phenology shifts, while migrations show, comparatively, a limited response (Fig. 5). It is, however, worth noticing that the potential impact of warming on abundance and reproductive changes are often difficult to disentangle from natural dynamics and adaptive/plastic responses respectively. By contrast, evidences on mass mortality events induced by progressive warming and heatwaves events are more robustly attributed to climate and have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea mainly on invertebrates from early 1980s (e.g. Porifera, Cnidaria) (see references in Lejeusne et al. 2010, Calvo et al. 2011). The increased stratification in the Mediterranean induced by warming is expected to increase mass mortality events of invertebrates in the Mediterranean Sea (Coma et al. 2009) ( medium confidence ).

Fig. 5. Histogram of the number of reported impacts for each trait (abundance, survival, fertility, migration, and phenology) as a function of SSTp99 anomaly (99 th percentile of the year of the impact to use a homogenized temperature diagnosis). (adapted from Marbà et al. 2015).

Phenology shifts (i.e. temporal changes in the seasonal ecological processes) are among the most observed and expected reposes to climate change in marine ecosystems (Poloczanska et al. 2016), with most of them observed or attributed to changes in the timing and production of plankton communities in the Mediterranean Sea (e.g. Molinero et al. 2008) (changes in fish migrations are discussed in the next section). Most of the studies in the Mediterranean Sea, but not all, report a delay of the ecological response (from few days to one month per decade) - a contrasting response to the observed evidences in other Atlantic and Pacific areas (Poloczanska et al. 2016) (Fig. 6). Since the Mediterranean is generally an olygotrohic system, the survival and fitness success is highly dependent of ‘ being in the right place in the right moment ’ because primary production events are regularly associated to small seasonal windows and/or small areas (D'Ortenzio and d'Alcala, 2009, Hidalgo et al. 2009b). Thus, the risk of mismatch between production peaks and the presence of consumers is of high relevance in the Mediterranean Sea, and has the potential to cascade through trophic webs.

Fig. 6. Observed shifts in phenological responses (days per decade) by ocean regions. Brown bars represent the Mediterranean Sea (adapted from Poloczanska et al. 2016).

Changes in abundance, migration and distribution induced by warming and other effects of climate change will be discussed in further detail in the next section since most evidences are observed in fish, both commercial and non-commercial species. However, there are two general patterns in the Mediterranean that must be here highlighted, and involved both native and non- indigenous species. First, the northward extension, colonization and enhancement of thermophilic species known as merionalization , with the colder north Mediterranean regions such as Ligurian, Gulf of Lions or North Adriatic, more sensitive to this process (Bianchi 2007, Azzurro et al. 2011, Lloret et al. 2014). And second, tropicalization , the increasing introduction and range extension of thermophilic non-indigenous species mainly driven by the Lessepsian species from the Red Sea (Boero et al. 2008). In total, more than 900 species have been recorded, but warming has exacerbated the introduction of warm and tropical alien species from Indo- Pacific region (Zenetos et al. 2012). All this local and regional reallocation, movements and changes in fish abundance will trigger changes in the rate of species replacement and species richness (Albouy et al. 2012, 2013), with an increase at middle term (mid-XXI century) but a potential decrease at long term (end of the century) since the loss of thermal niche will not be compensated by the arrival of other species from the south (Albouy et al. 2013). However, at large geographic scale, the expected changes in species richness are consistent along the whole century with a general increase in species in the eastern Mediterranean and a general decrease in the western (Fig. 7, Albouy et al. 2013, medium to high confidence). The same multi-model approach has been used to assess the expected changes of species richness and distribution patterns at smaller spatial scales (e.g. Gulf of Gabes, Hattab et al. 2014). All these structural changes in the communities are expected to have consequences in the food web and the ecosystem functioning (Albouy et al. 2014).

Fig. 7. Predicted differences in fish species richness between the baseline scenario (1961–80) and two time periods (2040–59, left column and 2080–99, right column) predicted for the continental shelf of the Mediterranean (adapted from Albouy et al. 2013).

Connectivity patterns will also change as a consequence of warming. Variation in behaviour and growth of early life stages of marine organisms (e.g. eggs, larvae, paralarvae) along with expected changes in the spawning patterns will have local and regional consequences on ocean connectivity. Spawning time, for instance, is expected to shift with warming due to the dependence of spawning behaviour on environmental clues such as temperature (Andrello et al. 2015). In general terms, it is expected that, by the end of the century, the continental area seed by spawners will decrease along with an increase in larval retention. This will result in reduced connectivity and an increase of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf (Andrello et al. 2015, medium confidence ).

Finally, acidification will directly impact the recruitment and seed production of shellfish, making them bottleneck processes for aquaculture in the whole Mediterranean (Lacoue-Labarthe et al. 2016). Besides effects on species of commercial interest, acidification indirectly affects ecosystems services through the impact on species that provide structural and essential habitats to a high number of fish and crustaceans (e.g. biogenic structures or seagrass meadows, Johnson et al. 2012, Kroeker et al. 2013).

4 Climate change effects on stocks sustaining the main fisheries (observed and projected)

4.1 Distribution, abundance, seasonality, fisheries production

Evidences on the influence of climate change on fishing resources can be grouped in four categories: distribution, abundance, phenology (seasonality), and fisheries production. The observed evidences and the few available projections of these categories are here below described grouped for the following fisheries resources: the small and medium pelagic fish, large pelagic fish (including migratory species), demersal species, and species associated to small- scale fisheries. Importantly, although most oceanographic simulations providing climate change projections are based on Mediterranean and Black Sea specific regional models (following the Med-CORDEX framework f), most projections of fish distributions and communities are made using global models does not reproduce properly temporal and spatial variation of regional oceanography. For this reason, all the species simulations at global or large scale including the Mediterranean are considered of low to medium confidence .

f www.medcordex.eu

Small and medium pelagic fish are the most sensitive fisheries resources to the climate change given their direct and strong dependence on surface hydroclimatic conditions, mainly temperature and productivity, at both temporal (Lloret et al. 2004, Martín et al. 2012) and spatial scale (Tugores et al 2011, Giannoulaki et al. 2013). As in several ecosystems worldwide, sardine and anchovy tend to display contrasting temporal patterns in response to climate. At a whole Mediterranean scale and attending to official statistics of landings (i.e. FAO database), sardine follows a decreasing trend in the whole Mediterranean while anchovy follows an increasing trend along with medium pelagic fish (e.g. Trachurus spp.) (Tzanatos et al. 2013, Stergiou and Tsikliras 2014) (Fig. 8). These opposed trends have been attributed to the contrasting spawning periods between pelagic species, and the different effect that the increasing temperature has on the ecological processes in opposed seasons (Tzanatos et al. 2013, also observed in the Pacific species, Takasuka et al. 2008). At subregional scale, however, a decreasing pattern of the sardine and anchovy have been reported in different areas (Palomera et al 2007, Tugores et al 2011), along with a progressive expansion of other small pelagic thermophilic species such as round sardinella Sardinella aurita (Sabates et al. 2006, Tsikliras 2008) and certain contraction of cold- water species such as sprat Sprattus sprattus (Lloret et al. 2004). In the Mediterranean Sea, high abundance of pelagic species are observed in areas close to river mouths (Tugores et al 2011, Giannoulaki et al. 2013), with fluctuation of landings strongly dependent on runoff variability (Lloret et al. 2004). Climate change will decrease the precipitation in the Mediterranean basin (high confidence ) that will have direct implications on pelagic species (Tzanatos et al. 2013). Declining trends, when observed, can be also due the combined effect with of fishing impact, though recent research shows the critical role that body condition had in the declining of small pelagic fish in the whole Mediterranean region (Brosset et al. 2017). The only modelling projections available under different climate change scenarios uses a global model and forecast a significant decrease in the probability of occurrence of anchovy along the century in whole basin (Raybaud et al 2017, medium confidence ).

Fig. 8. Mediterranean SST anomalies against the interannual variation of Mediterranean European sardine and European anchovy landings anomalies (adapted from Tzanatos et al. 2014 and Stergiou at al 2015).

Mounting research suggest the likely impact of warming on the phenology and recurrence of migratory patterns on large pelagic species (e.g. Dufour et al. 2010) ( medium to high confidence ), some of them seasonally entering in the Mediterranean for spawning (e.g. dolphinfish, Coryphaena hyppurus, or bluefin tuna, Thunnus Thynnus ). Both local fisherman knowledge and long time series show the meriodalization of the migratory behaviour of dolphinfish Coryphaena hyppurus or resident tuna species such as Euhtynnus alleteratus and Thunnus alalalunga (Azzurro et al. 2011, Lloret et al. 2015, Catteno-Vietti et al. 2015). This has been mainly observed in the northern Mediterranean areas, which are more sensitive to warming-

66 induced colonization and eventually occurrence of thermophlic species. In addition to temperate tuna, other tropical tuna such as Katsuwonus pelamis are irregularly caught over the Mediterranean Sea (Di Natale et al., 2009, Saber et al. 2015) - the occurrence and potential establishment of tropical tuna could potentially increase under the expected warming scenarios (medium confidence ). Most studies, however, focus in bluefin tuna Thunnus Thynnus , whose spawning locations are highly controlled by the surface temperature and mesoscale hydrographical structures (Reglero et al. 2011, Muhling et al. 2013). Recent projections of the favourable metabolic habitat of bluefin tuna using a global model suggest a likely reduction of habitat in tropical and sub-tropical areas (including the Mediterranean Sea) due to a likely increase in the metabolic stress and the consequent changes in migrating and spawning behaviour (Muhling et al. 2017). However, Muhling et al. (2017) acknowledge the relative uncertainty of this model (low to medium confidence ). Besides warming, the temporal and spatial occurrence of mesoscale structures shapes the pelagic habitat of the spawning of bluefin tuna at subregional scale (Reglero et al. 2011, Alvarez-Berastegui et al. 2014). Though current operational oceanography models and observing systems have the possibility of providing short term predictions of relevant oceanography variables useful for fisheries forecast (i.e. ‘operational fisheries oceanography ’, Álvarez-Berastegui et al. 2016), there is no cue on the influence of climate change on the recurrence and the spatiotemporal dynamics of these mesoscale structures. In this sense, predicted changes in thermohaline circulation show that the entering Atlantic water mass will become progressively lighter ( high confidence, Adloff et al. 2015) and may trigger a change in the mesoscale structures in the western Mediterranean spawning areas (i.e. Balearic Islands). Finally, recent studies evidence that, rather than warming, bluefin tuna couples the spawning to the availability of trophic resources for larvae in all the spawning areas (Reglero et al. 2018), worldwide questioning the thermal dependency of the spawning of this species as well as the adaptation capabilities.

Fig. 9. Occurrence and abundance changes attending to the species affinity for cold or warm waters (adapted from Lloret at al 2014).

Fig. 10. Mean temperature of the catch (MTC, °C) (continuous lines, black dots) and temperature anomaly (°C) for the western (left), central (center) and eastern (right) from 1970 to 2010 (adapted from Tsikliras and Stergiou 2014).

For the demersal species , robust evidence both from official statistics and local knowledge shows that the community composition has been progressively changing with cold- water species in regression and warm-water species colonizing northern areas (Fig. 9, Lloret e al. 2015). This is also supported at a pan-Mediterranean scale where the application of the mean temperature of catches (MTC, i.e. index to assess the changes in the fish community composition attending to optimal temperature of species, Cheung et al. 2013b) of demersal species showed an increase in MTC (Fig. 10, Tsikliras and Stergiou 2014), particularly evident from early 1990s when the rate of warming increased (Vasilakopoulos et al. 2017). Similar trend has been observed using fisheries-independent information from experimental bottom trawl surveys (e.g. Greek waters, Tsikliras et al. 2015), while certain spatial heterogeneity was observed in Italy with only southern areas sensitive to increasing MTC (Fortibouni et al. 2015).

The high diversity of physical drivers impacting demersal species, the spatial heterogeneity in the ecological response to these drivers, and the fact that some of them are challenging to project by regional oceanographic models makes the future directional changes of this diverse group of species difficult to assess (medium confidence ). At sub-regional scale, several studies show the strong dependence of demersal resources upon the surface hydroclimatology. For instance, several species display regional distributions and abundances annual trends highly dependent of SST and its influence on early life stage survival (Bartolino et al. 2008, Puerta et al. 2015). In addition, in oligotrophic systems such as the Mediterranean Sea, it is crucial an efficient benthopelagic coupling and trophic transfer efficiency (e.g. Tecchio et al. 2013). A recent study highlights that fisheries production forecasting under climate change scenarios depends on the understanding and proper parametrization of the energy transfer efficiencies that highly differ at regional level (Stock et al. 2017). Given the spatial segregation of primary production provinces in the Mediterranean (D’ortenzio and Alcalá 2009, Nieblas et al. 2014) and how their phenology and dynamics differently depend on the temperature (Boyce et al. 2017), temperature and primary production interact affecting abundance and distribution of demersal species. This has been observed in cephalopods, a taxonomic group highly vulnerable to environmental fluctuations, in which the primary production and surface temperature shape

68 local abundances and sub-regional distributions (e.g. Navarro et al. 2015, Puerta et al. 2015, Lauria et al. 2016, Quetglas et al. 2016). However, a contrasting effect between regions of surface temperature has also been observed to be spatially consistent across taxa, from cephalopods to species more vulnerable to fish such as elasmobranches (Fig. 11, Puerta et al. 2016). Thus, climate warming may have contrasting effects on the same species across short distances, while species of different taxa and functional groups may have the same responses within in the same area (i.e. high community synchrony, Quetglas et al. 2013). Besides temperature, demersal populations close to river mouths highly depend on the nutrients and primary production associated to runoff (Lloret et al. 2001, Salen-Picard et al. 2002, Puerta et al. 2015). The expected decrease of precipitation in the Mediterranean due to climate change ( high confidence ) may negatively affect the production of demersal resources close to rivers.

Fig. 11. Positive (blue) and negative (red) effects of SST (residuals after removing the seasonal cycle) on local abundances of the cephalopod Eledone cirrhosa (left) and the elasmobranch Scyliorhinus canicula (right) (adapted from Puerta et al 2016).

In addition to temperature and runoff, inter-annual and seasonal abundance of demersal resources also depends on the winter conditions associated to convection processes and the formation of deep and intermediate water masses. These processes enhance primary production at subregional scale increasing the abundance and fishery productivity of some benthopelagic fish (e.g. European hake, M. merluccius , Massutí et al. 2008, Hidalgo et al. 2011; blue whiting, Micromesistius poutassou, Martín et al. 2016). However, winter weather also generates cascades events in canyons close to coast or surface vorticity episodes in the open sea that trigger sediment resuspension and reduce the availability (i.e. catchability) on benthic species to the fishery (e.g. red shrimp, Aristeus antennatus , Company et al 2008, Amores et al. 2014). In the case of benthic crustaceans, bathymetric and geographic distribution also responds to the salinity and temperature characteristics of intermediate and deep water masses (i.e. Levantine Intermediate Water, LIW, and Western Mediterranean Deep Waters, WMDW). This has been observed in changes in local abundances of several species: red shrimp (Massutí et al. 2008, Cartes et al. 2015), deep-sea shrimp, Aristaeomorpha foliacea (Cartes et al. 2011) and deep-sea pink shrimp, Parapenaeus longirostris (Colloca et al. 2014). Physicochemical characteristic of the water masses will change ( high confidence , Aldoff et al. 2015), while it is not possible to assess how deep species will adapt to these changes or whether they will compensate with bathymetric displacements (e.g. Dulvy et al. 2008). Other important element of the deep-sea ecosystems is the mesopelagic fish compartment, which is a key component of pelagic food webs, fuelling commercially important fisheries, and plying a key role in the trophic efficiency in the water column (e.g. transfer of surface climate change effects to deep ecosystems) (Costello and Breyer 2017). Proud et al. (2017) show that while models predict a global increase in

69 mesopelagic fish at global level by 2090-2100, the biomass of this fish compartment will decrease in the Mediterranean ( low to medium confidence ).

Warming has also affected small-scale fisheries in the whole Mediterranean Sea mainly due to meriodinalization (i.e. colonization) of thermophilic species and retraction and decreasing on number of species of ‘boreal-type’ fish (Fig. 9, Lloret et al. 2014), progressively changing the structure of the community and the food web. Attending to official fisheries statistics over the whole Mediterranean, two of the most important species in coastal ecosystems, Dentex dentex and Epinephelus marginatu s, show a decreasing pattern while Diplodus sargus and Seriola dumerili increased (Tzanatos et al. 2013). These contrasting patterns can be due the different effect of temperature on species spawning in different seasons (as suggested above for small pelagic fish, Tzanatos et al. 2013). Local knowledge studies have reported the progressive occurrence and establishment of warm-water species such as bluefish ( Pomatomus saltatris , Sabates et al. 2012), barracuda (Sphyraena viridensis, Azurro et al. 2011, Villegas-Hernandez et al. 2014), among other species (see reviews by Boero et al. 2008, Azurro et al. 2011, Lloret et al. 2014, Fig. 11). Indirect effects of the expected increased tropicalization of the Mediterranean Sea is the increase of competition between non-native and commercial native fish, that may affect species composition of small scale fisheries while there is no evidence that it will change fish production. In addition, clear negative effects have already been reported for highly toxic species as pufferfishes (e.g. Lagocephalus sceleratus , Ünal and Göncüo ğlu Bodur, 2017), which damage nets and catches. Finally, warming and associated thermal stratification can also drive changes in the seasonal movements and behaviours of coastal species such as Epinephelus marginatus or Dentex dentex (Aspillaga et al 2017), and it is also expected to affect the connectivity and dispersal capabilities of species associated to small-scale fisheries and managed by marine protected areas (MPAs, see Section 3 and Andrello et al. 2014).

All effects described above focused exclusively on observations and expectations of direct effects of the anthropogenic-induced climate change. However, climate has also natural fluctuations with direct effects on sea surface temperature that are often difficult to disentangle for warming. This is the case of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, see above Section 3a) that can create confounding effects of natural climate fluctuations and anthropogenic-induced warming trends over abundance and fisheries production of the last decades (Macias et al. 2013). It is assumed that over the last three decades the warming influence on Mediterranean demersal resources is a balanced combination of natural and anthropogenic causes (e.g. Tsikliras et al. 2015). Besides AMO, other Atlantic climatic modes (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), Mediterranean climate modes (e.g., Mediterranean Oscillation, MO, or Western Mediterranean Oscillation, WeMO), or locally developed climatic indices (i.e. short-scale spatial differences of surface temperatures or indices derived from multivariate analyses) have been used to asses climate influence on local weather (temperature, strength and direction of winds, runoff, water masses characteristics or local upwelling) with the consequent influence on fisheries resources in the Mediterranean Sea (Lloret et al 2001, Massutí et al. 2008, Hidalgo et al. 2011, 2015, Quetglas et al. 2013, Keller et al. 2014, Martín et al. 2012, 2016).

Finally, along with all the expected changes in abundance, production and distribution of marine resources, global predictions of climate warming also predict a shrink and downsize of fish (Cheung et al. 2013a, medium confidence ). Recent studies show that fish in the Mediterranean follow a temperature-size rule (van Rijn et al. 2017), providing support to potential reduction of fish size in the Mediterranean. However, in the case of Molluscs, alien

70 species entering the Mediterranean from the Red Sea are significantly larger than native bivalves. In contrast to the expectations based on the general temperature–size rule in marine ectotherms, warming of the Mediterranean Sea indirectly leads to an increase in the proportion of large- bodied species in bivalve assemblages due to accelerated spread of tropical aliens (Nawrot et al. 2017). This study foresees complex interactions between changing climate and species invasions.

4.2 Non-climate stressors.

Other non-climate stressors can synergistically buffer or strengthen the effect of climate change in the Mediterranean Sea (e.g. Calvo et al. 2011, Hidalgo et al. 2011, Quetglas et al. 2013). Fishing impact, for instance, can erode the age structure and/or the spatial distribution making the populations more dependent on environmental fluctuations (Planque et al. 2010). Spatial distribution of harvested resources, particularly of those species especially vulnerable to fishing (e.g. elasmobranchs) (Navarro et al., 2016, Quetglas et al. 2016), can increase the sensibility to environmental drivers in highly impacted areas (Ciannelli et al. 2013). Fishing activity is also able to downsize fish, which has been observed both for large commercial stocks (e.g. hake, Hidalgo et al. 2009a) or local populations exploited by small-scale and recreational fisheries (Alós et al. 2014), and has potential evolutionary implications in adaptive life history traits.

Besides the current and generalized overexploitation of Mediterranean stocks (FAO et al. 2016b, Fernandes et al. 2017, STECF 2017), there is also a general acceptance of a mismatch between biological and management structures currently used in fisheries assessment frameworks (Fiorentino et al. 2014, Kerr et al. 2017, Hidalgo et al. 2017). Recent research accounting for the connectivity among hake metapopulation subunits in the Western Mediterranean evidences that the spatial and demographic structures of marine populations are more complex than currently accounted for, directly affecting the estimates of fish recruitment (Hidalgo et al. in review). In oligotrohic systems such as the Mediterranean, population complexity closely responds to how surface hydroclimate is spatially structured (Puerta et al. 2014, 2016, Hidalgo et al. 2015, Keller et al 2017). Given this structural role of Mediterranean hydroclimate, future climate change modifications may alter spatial structure of harvested populations in addition to expected shifts in distribution. All this highlights the high importance and need of transboundary research, assessment and co-management in the Mediterranean Sea.

Pollution (organic and inorganic contaminants, pathogens or biotoxins) is also an important threat of strong concern in the Mediterranean Sea as it will affect the safety of seafood and will pose health risks to consumers. This is expected to increase linked to warming, leading to illness in humans and other organisms (European Marine Board 2013). Mediterranean holds numerous localised pockets of pollution associated to areas with strong human concentration and/or improper waste treatment. It can locally affect human health through local fish directly contaminated but also have impact in the fisheries production in coastal populations when noxious phytopkanton blooms deplete oxygen, suffocating and killing the fish that are unable to escape. Due to the trophic bioaccumulation of heavy metals, top predators (e.g. large pelagic fish) are more impacted by pollution (Storelli et al. 2002) as well as species closely related to polluted bottom substrates (e.g. mullets, Copat et al. 2002, Zorita et al. 2008). Rising temperatures may also increase the distribution and occurrence of biotoxins (e.g. lipid-soluble ciguatoxins produced by dinoflagelolades that can accumulate in some thermophilic fish) or pathogens as Vibrio genus (Lloret et al. 2016). This may trigger recent massive mortality events

71 such as the recently observed in the endemic Mediterranean species Pinna novilis (Vázquez-Luis et al 2017).

Finally, fisheries, warming and ocean acidifications contribute to the disappearance and modification of fragile and long-lived species conforming biogenic structures or seagrass meadows (e.g. Jordà et al. 2012, Lacoue-Labarthe et al. 2016, Lauria et al. 2017). These habitat modifications (and often destruction) have strong impact in fish populations, particularly as essential fish habitats during the juveniles stages (Lejeusne et al. 2010), that can also buffer or strengthen the environmental effects on fisheries resources (Perry et al 2010, Calvo et al. 2011, Ciannelli et al. 2013).

5 Implications for food security, livelihoods and economic development

5.1 Consequences on fisheries management and fishing activities

The Mediterranean is bordered by the EU and non-EU developed and developing countries, and this political and social heterogeneity creates difficulties to setting common legislation concerning cross-border issues. The communal nature of waters and resources distributing across country boundaries creates a critical need for a regional approach to environmental protection. There is growing international concern that for migrating, wide- ranging or sedentary species on specific habitats, international cooperation is of paramount importance for creating strategic networks that are more efficient than isolated sites protection (Hills et al, 2013). GFCM (RFMO responsible for fisheries assessment of the Mediterranean and Black Sea) provides advice for sustainable exploitation of fish stocks, which are mostly distributed across national borders, and is responsible of regional initiatives to cope with the impacts of CC on fisheries management (see section 7.7.1). Given the expected changes in species distributions and spatial structure of populations, the challenge of GFCM will be combing efficiently regionalization of Mediterranean fisheries management with transboundary research and co-management that adopt adaptive methods and measures coping with stocks distributed across national boundaries (Kerr et al. 2017, Song et al. 2017). CC will have consequences on fisheries management, but the strength of this impact will depend on the success of the management strategies adopted along the next decades in the Mediterranean and Black Sea to reverse the current overexploitation.

Besides the availability, stability and access to fishing resources, the impact of CC on fisheries and post-harvesting also depends on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of fishing fleets and communities that is highly heterogeneous over the Mediterranean countries and regions. Highly specific fisheries mainly targeting pelagic species (e.g. purse seiners, longlines) are less resilient and can be affected positive or negatively. For instance, in Malta, total biomass landed and the generated incomes are expected to increase due to the enhanced catches of large pelagic fish (Knitweis et al. 2015). By contrast, purse seiners highly dependent on anchovy and sardine are expected to decline over the whole basin attending to the negative impact of low precipitation and decline in primary production (Lloret et al. 2004, Raybaud et al 2017). While post-harvesting fishing industry and trades may have similar effects as in the related fisheries, other important post harvesting elements such as the composition and relative abundance of discards and bycatch will also change given the high multispecific nature of Mediterranean catches.

The progressive establishment and colonization of thermophilic species as well as the changes in migratory behaviours will create new fishing opportunities in the whole basin (Lloret et al. 2015). The multi-species nature of some Mediterranean fleets, particularly demersal and small-scale fisheries, makes then highly resilient to changes in fish communities. For instance, in the Gulf of Gabes, the habitat loss of seagrass meadows replaced by muddy sand and combined with warming temperatures triggered a high level of commercial species replacement; from bluespotted seabream Pagrus caeruleosticus , the speckled shrimp Metapenaeus Monoceros and the brown comber Serranus hepatus , to other commercial species such as black goby Gobius niger , the European hake Merluccius merluccius , and the musky octopus Eledone moschata (Hattab, et al. 2014). However, these new market opportunities will also depend of the appreciation of consumers to new species and the degree of adaptability of local markets, since close areas can have different appreciation to certain type of resources (e.g. dolphinfish, Coryphaena hyppurus , in the Western Mediterranean, Lloret et al. 2015). However, some thermophilic species are a serious concern for small-scale fishers, with the silver-cheeked toadfish, Lagocephalus sceleratus, as the most known case. This species damages fishing gears and the fish entangled to these fishing gears, and the economic loss in some regions (e.g. Turkey case and Aegean Sea) is increasing every year (Ünal and Göncüo ğlu Bodur, 2017).

5.2 Communities and livelihoods

The Mediterranean local communities and their livelihoods are highly engaged to small scale fleets making them one of the most vulnerable social components under the expected climate change scenarios. Communities in the developing eastern and south Mediterranean countries, in which the contribution of these fleets is higher (until 80 percent in number of vessels, FAO 2016a), will be comparatively more affected by climate change impacts on small scale fisheries given the strong contribution of these fleets to the local economies and employment (see conclusions of the Regional Conference ‘ Building a future for sustainable small-scale fisheries in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea ’, March 2016 g). The high exposure to climate change (expected warming and increased of colonization of thermophilic species) will trigger higher impact in these countries and regions, where the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets is higher and there is limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. However, it is still uncertain how the diversity of fish opportunities will buffer the negative expected impacts (Hattab, et al. 2014), and how history and traditions will positivity adapt to new species (e.g. Lesseptian species as normal part of the diet, Öztürk, 2010).

5.3 Wider society and economy implications

While the exposure to warming is generalized in the Mediterranean with some regions getting warmer than others (Adloff et al. 2015, Ding et al. 2017), the sensitivity of different countries varies according to the rate of fisheries employment, the economic dependence on the fisheries sector, and food security. This includes important elements such as number of fishers, the proportion of fisheries export in comparison to the total export value, the proportion of population economically active involved in the fishery sector and the total landings that highly vary over Mediterranean countries. Based on these variables, neither Allison et al. (2009) or Ding et al. (2017) showed a general geographic pattern in the Mediterranean due to the g http://www.fao.org/gfcm/meetings/ssfconference2016/en/ , last access on September 18 2017. RES-GFCM/40/2016/3.

73 heterogeneous geographical distribution of these factors. With this diverse pattern, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt have shown moderate sensitivity according to their nutritional dependence on fish protein (Allison et al. 2009, Ding et al. 2017, section below).

6 Synthesis of vulnerability/opportunities of the main fisheries and the dependent communities/economies

• The high heterogeneity in exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity over of the Mediterranean countries affects the geographical segregation of national vulnerabilities to CC on fisheries and food security (Karmaoui 2018) - this vulnerability ranges between very low to high (Fig 12, Ding et al. 2017).

A B

C D

Fig. 12. Overall vulnerability (A), exposure (B), sensitivity (C), and adaptive capacity (D) of Mediterranean and Black Sea countries to fisheries-related food security risks associated with climate changes, reported in quartiles: very low (dark green), low (light green), moderate (orange) and high (red) (adapted from Ding et al 2017).

• Northern (developed) countries in the Mediterranean were catalogued as very low and low vulnerable due to their high adaptive capacity, while, in the south, Morocco and Egypt were catalogued as moderate and high vulnerable, respectively, due to their exposure and sensitivity to CC impacts (Ding et al. 2017) (Fig. 12, Ding et al, 2017).

• Additional factors may increase the degree of vulnerability in the developing Mediterranean context that are not included in large-scale studies, such as remoteness, transboundary issues, geographic dispersion, natural disasters, the degree of economic openness, the relevance of small internal markets and a limited or damaged natural resource base (Karmauoi 2018).

• The expected higher decrease of primary production in the western Mediterranean (Macias et al. 2013, Fig. 4b) makes countries more venerable to changes in fisheries yields of species sensitive to phytoplankton production.

• Fisheries production of countries and local communities relying on the runoff of the most relevant rivers (e.g. Ebro, Nile, Po or Tiber) must be considered vulnerable. • Most of the new opportunities and negative impacts for the Mediterranean fisheries will emerge in the small-scale fisheries and the related communities, which are highly sensitive and exposed to the changes in distribution of species and the synergistic effect of the arrival of non-indigenous species (e.g. Hattab, et al. 2014, Lloret et al. 2015, Knitweis et al. 2015.

• The strong combination of stressors in addition to fishing (e.g. pollution, habitat degradation, increase of demographic and tourist pleasure) in several regions of the Mediterranean

increases their vulnerability and decrease the capacity of providing effective mitigation/adaptation measures due to the complex interactions between stressors (Coll et al. 2012, Líquete et al. 2016).

• It is not clear whether the diversity of Mediterranean fisheries in terms of species and fleets can contribute to the adaptive capacities of countries and regions, and whether they will contribute to promote stable revenues (Anderson et al. 2017).

• Given the geographical segregation in expected changes in the Mediterranean fish diversity (general increase in the eastern Mediterranean, Albouy et al. 2013), special attention should be paid on the risk of proposing measures that promote fisheries specificity versus diversity. Expected changes in species distributions and spatial structure of populations will provide new opportunities (and problems, e.g. silver-cheeked toadfish) but also increase the vulnerability of areas dependent on few species or resources.

7 Responses and adaptation measures 7.1 Existing regional initiatives As the RFMO responsible of providing fisheries management recommendations in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, GFCM has developed a Mid-Term Strategy 2017-2020 (MST, Resolution GFCM/40/2016/2) to reverse the current overexploitation implementing new fisheries governance. MST aims at ensuring the conservation and sustainable exploitation of living marine resources while protecting habitats and vulnerable species from fishing. MST 2017-2020 can be summarized in three main action axes (small-scale/artisanal fisheries, technical conservation measures and multiannual management plans) and structured in 5 targets: (1) to reverse the declining of fish stocks; (2) to support the long term livelihoods of coastal communities through the sustainability of small-scale fisheries; (3) to curb illegal unreported and unregulated (IUU); (4) to minimize and mitigate unwanted interactions between fisheries and marine ecosystems and environment (which specifically includes climate change implications); and (5) to enhance the cooperation and capacity building over riparian countries, which is a paramount to efficiently implement adaptation programs to the impacts on CC on the Mediterranean fisheries. In addition, European Commission and some North African countries have developed large scale policies and long-term strategies. In the EU, Blue Growth h aims at supporting sustainable growth in the marine and maritime sectors, making oceans and seas such as the Mediterranean the Black Sea drivers for the national and regional economies. In North Africa, Marocco has lunched the Blue Belt i as a collaborative platform to act together and put into practice innovative solutions for the adaptation of the fisheries and aquaculture sectors to CC, with ambition actions focused on: observatory, ecological certification, future and safe boats, or valorisation of fish captured. There are also numerous examples of regional cooperation of international projects over the Mediterranean Sea j that partially scope the impacts on fish stocks. Particularly, FAO Regional projects ant Networks k (AdriaMed, CopeMed II, EastMed, MedSudMed) aim at fostering capacity building and cooperation among Mediterranean and h https://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/policy/blue_growth_en i http://www.laceinturebleue.org/en/ j https://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/policy/sea_basins/mediterranean_sea k http://www.fao.org/gfcm/links/en/

Black Sea countries with particular emphasis on adaptive measures of communities supported by artisanal and SSF. With increasing climatic variability, it will be particularly important that coastal communities and individuals relying on marine resources for their livelihood have effective strategies to reduce financial risk, increasing diversity and flexibility at operational, social and political level (Anderson et al. 2017).

7.2 National responses

National adaptation strategies and plans (NAPsl) in the EU show very heterogeneous level of detail in the measures to be applied for the fisheries sector. Some developed countries such as Spain and France provide low level of detail on fisheries measures (often merged with conservation measures of marine biodiversity), while others such as Italy and Greece provide a well-structured and detailed list of measures aligned with the MTS 2017-2020 of GFCM to reverse the unsuitable situation of Mediterranean stocks. These NAPs include elements mainly associated to the: • creation of network of monitoring and databases; • adaptation to the new fisheries situations: consumers preferences, governance mechanisms, protection of vulnerable habitats; • a better understanding of natural and ecological mechanisms of the impact of CC (drivers of impact, mapping changes and ecosystems/populations indicators, vulnerability assessments); • assessment of the economic impacts of CC on fishing: cost of fish production, public and private initiative, diversification of activities, contingency plans, development of natural disasters risk management plans; • development of educational programs on the impact of CC: training programs, public engagement, fishing tourism.

Other countries such as Turkey provide a well-developed NAP while focused in the main risks (e.g. droughts) and sectors (e.g. agriculture, water) of the country with reduced reference to fisheries. Within developing countries, only Palestine has submitted to UNFCCC the NAP m. Palestine NAP provides specific adaptation measures on fisheries and other coastal and marine services (e.g. coastal agriculture and condition of beaches). Measures on fisheries focus on the enlargement of the fishing area and, improvement of fishing equipment and post-harvesting operations. Few Intended and National Determined Contributions (INDCs/NDCs n) of the Mediterranean countries make reference to measures oriented to the fisheries sector. This is in agreement with FAO (2016c) that reports, for all developed countries having submitted their NDCs towards the implementation of Paris Agreement, a global absence of reference to adaptation actions explicitly mentioning fisheries; this includes the European Union NDC. In contrast, Marrocco NDC sets fisheries as a primary sector in the country and outlined a detailed series of adaptation objectives for both 2020 and 2030 such as: reduction on the quantity of meal created by fresh fish, establishment of observation networks or reduction of catches for 2020; or l http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/countries-regions/countries m http://www4.unfccc.int/nap/Pages/national-adaptation-plans.aspx n http://unfccc.int/focus/items/10240.php

76 restocking of endangered coastal species, modernization of fleets, restoring damaged habitats, increasing the area covered by MPAs, or increasing the volume of products utilized and commercialized for 2030. Other countries often mention adaptation actions that explicitly cover coastal zone and marine ecosystems without direct or indirect reference to fisheries.

7.3 Relevant challenges and potential guidelines

The increase of capacity building of developing Mediterranean countries (and economies in transition) is always referred in the formulation of NAPs and NCDs. Efficient and trusty partnership between non-governmental organizations, civil society, private and public sectors are needed for a holistic CC adaptation planning. This includes the promotion of co- creation frameworks between scientists and stakeholders to develop Decision Support Frameworks and management plans as it is envisioned by the MST 2017-2020. A better engagement across sectors will also directly impact social and communities’ recognition of alternative opportunities to Mediterranean fisheries with adaptive options to diversify the livelihood portfolio: aquaculture related activities, non-fisheries economic activity such as tourism, or other agricultural or alternative land uses.

Of particularly importance to face climate change impacts is the need to provide scientific-based solutions to the expected distribution changes of fish stocks by integrating efficient co-management approaches ( high confidence , Pörtner et al. 2014). This requires transboundary fisheries research that encompasses re-incorporating, re-scaling and re- imagining of boundaries (Song et al. 2017), which would contribute to bridge and consolidate cooperation among Mediterranean countries – a cornerstone for the success in the adaptation plans. Special effort is required to frame this transbundary research within the regionalization and shared government among the Mediterranean countries (Resolution GFCM/40/2016/2). This includes an efficient exchange of data and knowledge among riparian countries (e.g. international workshops to share, commonly analyze and interpret data). The expected changes in spatial distribution of species and the consequent changes of populations shifting distribution across territorial waters and national fisheries production enforce an efficient tranboundary research and co-management. Adaptive co-management and spatial planning in the highly dynamic pelagic environment has been successfully applied in other regions (Tomasi et al. 2017), whose concepts and methods must be strategically adapted to all type of fisheries and resources (pelagic and demersal) in the Mediterranean Sea (Hidalgo et al. 2016). This also includes regional and national translocation of industrial fishing, along with a seasonal spatial reallocation of fishing effort. However, it is worth to anticipate that the redistribution of catch potential of large pelagic-high migratory species (e.g. tuna-related species) is of high confidence , while international fisheries agreements and instruments (e.g. tuna commissions) may have limiting success in establishing sustainable fisheries yield (Pörtner et al. 2014).

The economic risk of a broad number of activities related to the Mediterranean Sea is of high confidence . This requires risk analyses to support the implementation of several adaptive measures such the re-adjustments in the insurance market, improved weather warning systems coupled with improved communication frameworks, and improved vessels safety. In this case, transnational cooperation on the Mediterranean basin must work towards and homogeneous and efficient actions of disaster risk management (DRM). DRSs often include technical measures such as the construction of hard structures (e.g. see walls), soft and adaptive structures such as

77 living shorelines approach with less impact of affecting local ecosystem processes while protecting local livelihoods (e.g. Nile delta, Egypt, Shelton et al. 2014), reconstruction and buffering areas or appropriate ecological corridors in habitats with strong fragmentation, rehabilitation and post-disaster recovery plans and responses combined with political and economical plans of compensation of impacts.

All the afore mentioned measures should be accompanied with adequate spatial planning and management to identify and protect critical seasons and areas for fisheries resources as recently applied for protection of essential fish habitats of recruitment in central Mediterranean Sea (Strait of Sicily) (Vielmini et al. 2017) − a pioneering measure on the spatial protection of large demersal stocks that must be extended to the whole Mediterranean basin. Fisheries management in the XXI century should increase their efforts on ‘ where and when ’ to fish, rather than ‘ how many ’ as it is the current management based. To make sound and useful all the ongoing and future scientific outcomes, a Mediterranean-based effort on monitoring to feed adaptive management will also help to understand the future impacts of climate change since many of them will come outside the current scope and experience for many people and species. Indeed, current international research activities over the Mediterranean Sea focus in improve the scientific basis of mid-term projections accompanied by decision making tools (CERES project o; CLIMFISH project p, among others), which will be available in a short term and their use should be enforced and supported at whole Mediterranean scale. However, a broad spectra of decision support tools (DSTs) in spatial marine planning are indeed currently available with different functionality, stability, usability, and costs that should be reviewed to maximise the efficiency and multi-functionality when applied to Mediterranean countries specificities (Pınarba şı et al. 2017). All these measures will contribute towards the ‘ operationalization ’ of the ecosystems approach to fisheries (EAF) (Link and Howard 207) and the ecosystem approach to aquaculture (EAA) since both embed precautionary applications within an integrated management. They should create flexible management systems and support decision-making under uncertainty, that provide a framework to provide rapid adjustment of tools and regulations as will be necessitated by expected changing conditions and circumstances (Shelton et al. 2014).

Mounting effort currently focuses on adaptive measure of communities supported by artisanal and small-scale fisheries (SCF), which is the most sensitive component of the Mediterranean fisheries to climate change. With increasing climatic variability, it will be particularly important that coastal communities and individuals relying on marine resources for their livelihood have effective strategies to reduce financial risk. Diversity and flexibility at operational, social and political level must frame NAPs and NDCs on SCF. The most effective option to decrease revenue variability is to participate in additional or more diverse fisheries (Anderson et al. 2017). However, it is worth noticing that this option could become expensive for some Mediterranean regions, and consequently unavailable to SCF dependent communities. On the other hand, SCF are generally diverse and adapted to harvest different type of resources across seasons and, thus, they should not have many limitations to adapt to new fish resources when available. This does not prevent of adapting vessels to increase safety at sea without losing manoeuvrability to target different species and without over-increase their capacity, the fishing effort and the consequent over-exploitation risk. In areas where fisheries production and o https://ceresproject.eu/ last access 19 September 2017. p http://climefish.eu/ last access 19 September 2017.

78 livelihoods will decrease, recognizing new opportunities such as aquaculture-based livelihoods must be considered. However, this requires integrating fisheries and aquaculture sectors fully into the measures formulated in NAPs across sectoral frameworks, combining local and national needs, with regional policies and programs (i.e. multiscale scenarios, Rosa et al. 2017). Policies should also enhance measures in the post-harvest, distribution and markets to diversify the opportunities of communities dependent on SCF. In addition, policies should be flexible to support entry into new fisheries and exit of those that are declining to avoid socio-economic impacts and to prevent overfishing of species in retraction (Shelton 2014).

Finally, coastal communities, ecosystems and the related fisheries are also more sensitive to the combination of additional and accumulated stressors in coastal areas that synergistically act with climate change. Thus, measures applied to coastal communities and fisheries (artisanal and recreational) must be accompanied with general adaptation activities such as reducing pollution (e.g. agricultural and urban runoff), limiting pressures of leisure activities associated to tourism, or protecting and restoring seagrass meadows and other fish essential coastal habitats or tourism related leisure activities (Pörter et al 2014). It is expected that Mediterranean will receive 264 foreign coastal visitors by 2030 compared to the 98 millions in 1995 (Pedrosanu et al. 2011). In this context, a broad network on Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in the Mediterranean is and will be one of the main tools to mitigate climate change effects, while they should improve several elements to foster their efficiency and adaptive management (e.g. increase monitoring and mapping of habitats and impacts, apply DSTs, encompassing national to international plans, increasing awareness and sharing experiences and information, Otero et al. 2013). Of special importance is the need to improve the nestedness and connectance among MPAs. Decrease in connectivity between Mediterranean MPAs due to climate change has been highlighted in several studies (Andrello et al. 2013), which decreases towards the eastern Mediterranean (Rossi et al. 2014). Given the expected reduction of ocean connectivity in the Mediterranean Sea (medium confidence, Andrello et al. 2015), countries should increase the number of MPAs to promote the resilience capacities of species and ecosystems to climate change impacts through the regulation uses on key habitats (Kersting 2016).

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Appendix IX

Background document on the climate change implications for Black Sea fisheries

Climate change implications for fisheries in the Black Sea

Vesselina Mihneva Institute of Fish Resources. Varna, Bulgaria, E-mail: [email protected]

Table of Contents 1. Key messages 2. Main fisheries in the region 3. Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine environment relevant to fisheries 3.1. Physical & chemical 3.2. Biological & ecological 4. Climate change effects on stocks sustaining the main fisheries 4.1. Distribution, abundance, seasonality, fisheries production 4.2. Other non-climate stressors. 5. Implications for food security, livelihoods and economic development 5.1. Consequences on fisheries management and fishing activities 5.2. Communities and livelihoods 5.3. Wider society and economy implications. 6. Synthesis of vulnerability and opportunities of the main fisheries and the dependent communities and economies 7. Responses and adaptation measures 7.1. Existing regional initiatives 7.2. National responses 7.3. Relevant challenges and potential directions 8. References

Key messages

• The specific environmental conditions of the Black Sea limit the opportunities for marine fisheries. The Black Sea is an anoxic basin with low salinity waters, more productive than the Mediterranean Sea, but with lower biodiversity. Small-scale fishery is the dominant fleet segment and small pelagic fishes are the major fishery object. Anchovy plays primary role in regional fisheries, with highest catches in Turkey. Most of the Black Sea stocks are considered overexploited.

• The climate change (CC) impacts comprise surface water warming since last decade of XX century, decrease of surface salinity, changes in vertical thermohaline structure, sea level rise and increasing number of extreme weather events. Meteorological projections to 2090 show an increase in sea surface temperature (+1.5 to 2.6°C), an average sea level rise of 0.4 to 0.6 m, and a decrease in precipitations (30 – 45 percent) (Hills et al. 2013). It is likely that there will be more severe and frequent droughts and heat-waves, an increase in winter river flows, a decrease in summer river flows and more intense rainfall events (Hills et al. 2013).

• The water warming impacts biodiversity and physiology of fish species, it affects migration and schooling behaviour, availability of appropriate food sources, the processes of fattening and reproduction, modulating the fish stock dynamics and productivity. Shortening of anchovy fishing season is likely to occur along the Turkish coast, due to changes in anchovy migration and schooling behaviour. Change in overwintering grounds is very likely, affecting anchovy fisheries in Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine.

• Forecasts how CC will impact certain species and the interspecies relationships are still highly uncertain. In the Danube delta, the number of days suitable for fishing may be prolonged which would increase pressure on the populations of the main industrial species. Future changes in climate will not trigger a considerable reduction in catches in the Danube, though their quality may deteriorate. Fish production in the Danube lakes/reservoirs may decrease due to the worsening of water exchange and lower water quality (Nesterenko et al. 2014).

• In terms of marine biodiversity, introduction of non-indigenous species is very likely. At present, the number of new species in the Black Sea has reached around 150 species (phyto- and zooplankton, benthos and fish species), characterised with different level of colonisation and spatial distribution (Shiganova & Ozturk, 2010). New Indo-Pacific fish species have been sporadically detected (Boltachev & Karpova 2014, Turan et al. 2017).

• The analysis of country level vulnerability, focused on food security implications of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries, shows moderate level of sensitivity in Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey and Georgia, and low levels in Ukraine and Russia. At regional scale, the lower fisheries dependence, allow the vulnerability to be ranked as generally low, except in south-eastern region, characterised with moderate level of vulnerability (Ding et al. 2017).

• On a regional scale, the effects of CC vary, due to different vulnerabilities, potential and resources for response, national plans and policies. Priority adaptation measures involve harmonizing the timing of fishing bans, fishing quotas, and joint monitoring of fish stocks. Management strategies, based on protection and accommodation measures, capacity building and involvement of stakeholders need to be further developed, both in national and regional/international levels.

2. Basic fisheries of the region: fisheries resources, socio-economics and governance

About 200 fish species, ~ 500 molluscs and macrophytes inhabit Black Sea but not more than two dozen of species have economic value, producing 98 percent of catch (Shlyhov & Daskalov, 2008). The most common fish resources include: • pelagic fish - anchovy, Еuropean sprat, horse mackerel, grey mullet, Atlantic bonito, bluefish; • demersal fish - red mullet, picked dogfish, thornback ray, turbot, gobies; • anadromous fish - pontic shad, sturgeon species; • in many countries, fishing fleet exploits the gastropod mollusc rapana (Shlyhov & Daskalov, 2008).

Total fish catches in Black Sea exceeded 450 kilotonnes in 2007, but were reduced to around 200-300 kilotonnes in 2012-2014 (Fig.1, STECF, 2017).

Fig. 1 . Black Sea landings: by different fish species and total in 1980-2014 (data source: STECF, 2017).

Catches of small pelagics (SP) are larger than those of other groups and fishery is characterized by periods of rise and fall. The fishery activity has substantially increased during 1980s and collapsed in early 1990s, due to a combined pressure of overfishing and introduction of the invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi , that competes with fish for food and utilize fish larvae as a food source. Recently, the SP have shown signs of recovery, however several stocks are assessed as overexploited (STECF, 2017).

Approximately 10 000 fishing vessels operate in the Black Sea (FAO, 2016) and majority of the catches are realized from Turkey (~89 percent), followed by Ukraine and Russian Federation. The small-scale fishery (SSF) is a dominant segment, forming 88 percent from the total fishing fleet (FAO, 2016). Around half of the fishing fleet is concentrated in Turkey (Erdogan et al, 2009), where most of vessels are <10 m length, targeting SP - anchovy, sprat, and sardine. The main fishing gears include purse seines, beam trawls, bottom trawls, gill nets etc. Ukraine's harvest in the Black Sea is ca. 68.9 kilotonnes (fish, shellfish, and seaweed) in 2000–2013, related to operation of 135 fishing vessels (FAO, 2016). In Russian Federation, the Black Sea fishing fleet consists of 33 vessels with total landings of 32 kilotonnes (FAO, 2016). The main species caught is anchovy, which constitutes ca. 65 percent of the country’s total catches in the basin. The Bulgarian fishing fleet includes 704 vessels with a capacity of 3 743 GT (FAO, 2016) and main fishing gears include purse seines, beam trawls and gill nets. In Romania, almost 159 registered fishing vessels operates in Black Sea, but important part of fishery activities is undertaken in the Danube Delta where the number of fishing boats is around 1 500 (JRC, 2012, FAO, 2016). Georgia’s marine fishing fleet consists of 47 medium-sized seiners and small-scale fishing vessels, equipped with seine nets, gillnets, bottom lines and cast nets (FAO 2016, Van Anrooy et al. 2006). The main fisheries target is anchovy and partially sprat, whiting, rapa whelk and dog fish.

The General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) is the Regional Fisheries Management Organization in place in the Black Sea, while the Black Sea Commission

96 provides support to scientific research and implementation of the Black Sea Strategic Action Plans as a main mechanism for regional management, and the Working Group on Environmental Protection in Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) supports the environmental protection of Black Sea and adjacent area, recognising the need of the joint action with the states of the Danube basin.

3. Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine environment relevant to fisheries

3.1 Physical & chemical

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) : Black Sea is colder than the Mediterranean, with an average surface temperature (SST) of 15.98 ± 0.15 °C (in1960-2015) and an overall mean T in the layer 0-200 m - 9.41°C (Miladinova et al. 2017). The SST anomaly in the Black Sea has a higher temporal variation than in the Mediterranean Sea, probably due to the alternate meteorological influence of the cold Siberian anticyclone and the milder Mediterranean weather system on the region.

A surface water warming trend - 0.05 °C/year is well expressed since the mid-1990s (Shaltout & Omsted, 2014, Miladinova et al. 2017). Long term records (1900-2000), however, display a general cooling tendency in deep sea (-0.86 °C/century), with significant cooling during the first three quarters of the XX century, followed by a warming phase (Shapiro et al. 2010). Due to high inter-decadal variation of SST, the extracted trends are also variable, alternating between warming and cooling phases (Ginzburg et al. 2004, Oguz et al. 2006, Miladinova et al. 2017). Recently, the decadal scale shifts are well identified, based on a high- resolution 3D hydrodynamic model, with tree main periods distinguished – 1960–1970, 1970–1995 and 1995–2015, according to the changes of the SST and SSS (Miladinova et al, 2017). The first period is warm, with annual SST (ASST) in range of 15.4 -17.6 °C, while the second period is the coldest, characterized by the ASST of 14.7 - 16.2°C. The third period is warm, with strong warming phases in 1998/1999–2001 and since 2009. Warming of the intermediate layers is also detected, providing a positive linear trend at 50 m depth (0.009 °C/year) and a weak positive trend at 200 m depth (Miladinova et al. 2017). The atmospheric teleconnections show clear impact on the region, resulting in a significant negative correlation of SST to the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO). At long timescales, the SST variations follow the NAO forcing with a relatively large delay (2.4–3.5 years), indicating linkages with the thermal and dynamical balance of the basin (Nardelli et al. 2010).

Over 2000-2100, Black Sea is projected to warm, ranging from a maximum of 2.81–0.53 °C/century in summer to a minimum of 2.33–0.51 °C/century in winter (Shaltout & Omsted, 2014). Future scenarios show low spatial variability of the annual SST trends (Cannaby et al. 2015).

Precipitations, river flow and extreme weather events: By 2080 it is expected that Black Sea will be warmer and drier with more intense rainstorms, drought and heat-waves, however there are variable results for precipitation shifts. Generally, decrease of precipitations is expected in summer-autumn (Hills et al. 2013). It is likely that there will be more severe and

frequent droughts and heat-waves, an increase in winter river flows, a decrease in summer river flows and more intense rainfall events (Hills et al. 2013, Meredith et al. 2015).

Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) and surface circulation: The SSS displays gradual decrease over the last 50 years with a significant long-term trend - 0.02 ppt/year (Miladinova et al. 2017). Possible parallels between fluctuations of the surface circulation, the strength of the main current (Rim Current) and the variation of SSS on decadal or multi-annual scale are elucidated by model studies. Consolidation and amplification of the main cyclonic motion is detected in the recent decades and intensification of the anticyclonic motion is simulated in the periods of main current weakening (Miladinova et al. 2017). Future scenarios indicate that SSS could exhibited an increase, with much regional variability of the annual mean change (Cannaby et al. 2015).

Thermohaline structure: The establishment of Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL, with boundaries 8°C isotherm) is a key feature of the vertical thermohaline structure in Black Sea (Stanev et al. 2014). The water warming results in erosion and even disappearance of the CIL since the end of the XX century, as not only the area covered by this layer shrinks but its thickness decreases (Fig.2, Cannaby et al. 2015, Miladinova et al. 2017).

Fig. 2 Maps showing present day (PD) and A1B annual mean CIL thicknesses, averaged over the entire basin. Blank areas indicate an absence of the CIL during part of the year (from Cannaby et al, 2015).

The CIL formation and advection by the Rim Current ventilate the oxycline and influence variability in the depth of the upper suboxic interface (Konovalov et al. 2006, Capet et al. 2016). Consequently, the basin-averaged oxygen penetration depth has shown minimal level in 2015, when the shallowest annual value (90 m) has been recorded for the period 1955 - 2015 (Capet et al. 2016).

Sea level (SL): Black Sea sea level (BSSL) rise over the XX century, with range of 1.5 -2.5 mm/year (Tsimplis et al. 2004, Kubryakov et al. 2017). Process-based models project a rise in sea level in the range of 0.26–0.54 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 0.45 - 0.81 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) (Global and European sea level, 2017).

Acidification: Statistically significant century-scale acidification cannot be extracted in Black Sea. Decadal-scale reduction of pH has been observed in 1960s and between 1980 and 2000, however, the acidification of the upper layer is mostly due not to the rise of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, but to natural quasi-periodical decadal-scale intensification of upward motions in the subsurface layer, transporting the water with low-pH to the surface (Polonski, 2012).

3.2 Biological & ecological

Climate may not act as a primary driver of ecological properties but affecting numerous chemical and biological properties it modulates the ecological processes in Black Sea. The ”eutrophication phase ” started in 1960s, coinciding with a period of warming and thermic stability (Shaprio et al, 2010, Yunev et al, 2016). Then, during the strong cooling in the 1980s, the nitrate concentration has stabilized at high level and only moderate fluctuations were observed till mid-1990s (Yunev et al. 2007, Shapiro et al, 2010). Since late 1990s, the levels of eutrophication started decreasing and the annual primary production (PP) diminished by 15 - 20 percent in comparison with the peak eutrophication period (Yunev et al. 2016). While it is common to associate changes in the nutrients concentration with variations in river discharges, there are evidences that physical factors, such as strength of the Rim Current may play a role (Yunev et al. 2007, Shapiro et al. 2010). Furthermore, the winter convective mixing provides a flux of nitrate from deep stratums to the euphotic zone, which is approximately equal to the annual load of nitrogen from the Danube river (Eremeev et al. 1996, Cannaby et al. 2015). Hence, PP in the Black Sea appears equally sensitive to changes in advective processes and vertical mixing.

Short-term models (up to 2 020) (Salihoglu et al. 2017) consider a decreasing trend of PP, based on restricted vertical mixing. However, the projections up to 2 090, show that fluctuations to the advective distribution of nutrient rich river water could exert a stronger control on PP than results from changes in the vertical supply of nutrients (Fig. 2, a, b, c, d, Cannaby et al. 2015). Climate warming may exacerbate the impact of eutrophication via increased retention of riverine nutrients within the euphotic zone (Cannaby et al., 2015). Thus, phytoplankton biomass could increase by 5 percent, with much spatial variability (Fig. 2 e, f) and the higher nutrient environment could cause a shift in species composition (Cannaby et al. 2015). Rare events such as exotic phytoplankton blooms will become more frequent due to the climate changes (Agirbas et al. 2010).

Fig. 3 PD mean concentration and fractional change [(A1B/PD) −1] in depth integrated (a and b) nitrate concentration, (c and d) net primary production, (e and f) phytoplankton biomass, and (g and h) zooplankton biomass (from Cannaby et al, 2015).

Studies of higher trophic levels of marine food web document mass development of jellyplankton and decreasing stocks of SP in early 1990s, attributable to high overfishing pressure and global forcing through NAO (Niermann,1999, Bilio and Niermann, 2004). The positive phase of NAO has dominated since late 1980s that accompanied with high summer temperatures and diminished SP creates favourable conditions for outbreak of the invasive ctenophores . Future scenarios show that net changes of zooplankton biomass will encompass considerable spatial variations, following changes in PP and phytoplankton biomass (Fig 3 g, h).

The water warming affects biodiversity of the Black Sea flora and fauna. Progressive trend of arrival of Mediterranean species -“Mediterranization ” includes phyto-, zooplankton, benthic and fish species, that have been documented in several regions of Black Sea (Shiganova and Ozturk, 2010). Non-indigenous species (NIS), native for Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are also detected (Shiganova and Ozturk, 2010, Boltachev and Karopva, 2014, Turan et al, 2017). The total number of new species has accounted ~150 and invasion processes have been facilitated by both - rising seawater temperatures and increasing shipping intensity (Shiganova and Ozturk, 2010).

The SL rise, coastal erosion, water warming, hypoxia and anoxia events increase vulnerability of marine habitats. Analysis of the proportion of threatened habitats in Black Sea, show that of 53 habitats, 13 percent are assessed as vulnerable/critically endangered and a further 2 percent as near threatened. Considering the large number of habitats, evaluated as data

100 deficient, the share of vulnerable habitats would increase (Gubbay et al, 2016) while coastal zone would be particularly strongly influenced by CC effects.

4. Climate change effects on stocks sustaining the main fisheries (observed and projected)

4.1. Distribution, abundance, seasonality, fisheries production

Anchovy is the most abundant commercially important fish, represented by two subspecies in the Black Sea - the European ( Engraulis encrasicolus ) and Azov anchovy ( E. encrasicolus maeticus ), with high spatial-temporal variability of biomass. The environmental drivers regulate anchovy fecundity and survival rate of the early life stages and the recruitment success (Guraslan et al. 2014; Gucu et al. 2016). The sea surface temperature is recognised as a key factor, affecting reproduction, feeding/metabolism and growth rate, conditioning migration and schooling behaviour (Gursalan et al. 2014). For example, water temperature should drop to the 16-17 °C in order anchovy to form schools, providing economically worthwhile fishing (Erdogan et al, 2009). Consequently, projected warming will affect fish catchability, with direct consequences on the fishing season length and intensity. Additionally, changes in the migration pathways for spawning and overwintering of anchovy in Black Sea have been established. The typical spawning ground of European anchovy was located on the north-western shelf during 1970s -1990s (Ivanov and Beverton, 1985) and spawning/nursery grounds of Azov anchovy were in the Azov Sea, while the overwintering grounds of the both sub-species were situated along the southern and eastern Black Sea coasts (Chashchin, 1996, Guraslan et al, 2017). Model studies reveal that temperature and current strength can determine anchovy migration success (Guraslan et al. 2017) and in warm years, the overwintering areas changes and could be find along the Crimean coast (Bingel and Gücü, 2010; Chashchin et al. 2015). Thus, it is hypothesised that among the reasons for the “collapse” of the anchovy fishery should be considered the possibility that by overwintering outside the known grounds, anchovy could be unavailable to the fishery in the southern basin (Gucu et al. 2017).

The Black Sea sprat is of second rank as a fishery target. The water temperature and food supply are recognized as the most significant environmental factors, controlling sprat population (Shulmann et al. 2011). Sprat feeds preferably on large cold-water zooplankton such as Calanus euxinus, Pseudocalanus elongatus and Parasagitta settosa in Black Sea (Glushchenko and Chastchin, 2008). Recent data indicate decreased share of cold-water copepods in the sprat diet and worsening of the feeding conditions in the north-western region (Nikolsky, 2008; Glushchenko and Chastchin, 2008, Glushchenko, 2011). Nikolsky (2008) supposed the climate variability to be partially responsible for the changes in feeding, and negative relation is found between the fish food supply indicator and annual SST variability.

Relationships between recruitment/parental stock biomass of several pelagic species (sprat, whiting, anchovy and horse mackerel) and environmental factors such as SST, river runoff and wind conditions are well documented in the Black Sea (Daskalov, 1999, 2003). Similarities have been established between anchovy and whiting, whose reproduction occur in the coastal zone, and between sprat and horse mackerel, which are open sea spawners. It appears, that the high river run-off could impact whiting and anchovy possibly favouring reproductive success by increased productivity (Daskalov, 1999).

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Among the demersal resources, the most valuable fish, in terms of price per kg, is turbot. The decrease of turbot catches could be attributed mainly to overfishing. However, recruitment series correlate with river run-off and are marked by similar decadal patterns. Additionally, the decrease in turbot corresponds in some degree to decrease in the oxygen levels in bottom layer (Prodanov et al. 1997).

Fish diversity is affected by the process of ‘ mediterranization ’ and extension of ranges of invading species (Boltachev et al. 2009, Yankova et al. 2014). Some Indo-Pacific species and far east species ( Sphyraena spp. , Tridentiger trigonocephalus , shrimp scad - Alepes djedaba ) have been sporadically identified in the Black Sea (Boltachev & Karpova 2014, Turan et al. 2017).

In Danube Delta, spawning of some anadromous species has already shifted earlier over the past years and is likely to occur even earlier following changes in the water temperature (Nesterenko et al. 2014). It is expected that the number of days suitable for fishing in the Danube Delta may be prolonged which would increase pressure on the populations of the main industrial species. Future changes in climate will not trigger a considerable reduction in catches in the Danube, though their quality may deteriorate. Fish production in the Danube lakes/reservoirs may decrease due to the worsening of water exchange and lower water quality (Nesterenko et al. 2014).

4.2. Briefly consider other non-climate stressors (e.g. overfishing, pollution, habitat modifications)

Changes of the Black Sea ecosystem during the last 50 years show vulnerability to multiple anthropogenic stressors (Daskalov et al. 2017, Oguz, 2017). Currently, the major ecosystem challenges include: • overfishing, eutrophication, • changes in marine living resources, • chemical pollution, • biodiversity/habitat changes, including the introduction of non- indigenous species (TDA, 2007).

The fish stocks have been depleted due to decades of unsustainable fishing effort, resulting from excessive fishing capacity and inappropriate fishing practices. The present Black Sea fishery relay mostly on anchovy and sprat and this low-income sector is concentrated in the southern and south-eastern regions. From 10 fish stocks, evaluated in recent years, all have been categorised as overfished, except sprat, and demersal fish show higher fishing mortality rates (FAO, 2016). Most threatened by overfishing are turbot and spiny dogfish, with ~ 60 percent decline since 1981 (Duzgunes et al. 2006).

The Black Sea ecosystem has undergone different phases of eutrophication, caused by economical and lifestyle changes, including intensive animal farming and use of agrochemicals and phosphate detergents (Llope et al. 2011). The large rivers, flowing in the sea, in Romania, Ukraine, Russian Federation and Turkey appear the major sources of pollutants. The excessive nutrient discharges have led to frequent algal blooms “red tides” and formation of “dead zones” in the north-western shelf - with high mortality of benthic and fish species, due to low oxygen content in bottom water layers. The main pressures on marine habitats are excreted by pollution, natural system modifications (by dredging and dumping activities) and from urbanisation and coastal

102 development. Fishing pressures, for example from beam trawling are current threats and coastal zone development could further exacerbate threats to habitats (Gubbay et al. 2016).

5. Implications for food security, livelihoods and economic development

5.1. Consequences on fisheries management and fishing activities

Black Sea riparian states show a variety of fisheries management laws and enforcement capacity, creating difficulties on the adoption of common fisheries management measures. The communal nature of Black Sea water traversing country boundaries creates a need for a regional approach to environmental protection. In the EU countries, this “regionalisation” is well underway: through the Water Framework Directive and Marine Strategy Framework Directive for coastal and marine environmental quality and the Natura 2000 network (under the Habitats and Birds Directives). There is a growing awareness that, international cooperation is vital for management of migratory/wide-ranging species and that strategic networks are more effective for specific habitats preservation than isolated actions (Hills et al. 2013).

The fishing industry is already threatened by overfishing and pollution, and could be further stressed by the projected increase in water temperatures. In the future, limited migrations and schooling of anchovy may affect the fisheries sector in Turkey (Erdogan et al, 2009), and changes in the overwintering grounds (Guraslan et al. 2017) could influence fisheries in several countries. Warming supports introduction of new species, imposing threats to native fish species. For instance, after the introduction of the Pacific mullet, the production of five local species has decreased and then some of these species disappeared due to high food competition. At present, along the Turkish coast, four of five local mullet species are losing commercial importance due to pacific mullet development (Erdogan et al. 2009).

At present, management pay relatively limited attention to CC, as climate effects on stocks are not completely disentangled. Thus, among management objectives, the regular assessment of resource abundance and productivity, maintenance of regional data collection system and understanding of relationships between biological resources and variation in the physical environment should be priorities. Specific management actions require endangered species, marine protected areas and fisheries regulations in large rivers.

5.2. Communities and livelihoods

Black Sea coastal zone population is nearly 39 million people and livelihood of thousands of people depends on its goods and services (BSSoE, 2008). The fishery sector plays an important role both in supplying the increasing protein demand of the growing population and by contributing to the gross domestic product through local employment. The fishery industry incorporates many activities - fishing, processing, marketing, servicing and trade that are carried out by several enterprises in the coastal area with significant potential for future development (Identification of Elements for Black Sea Basin Cooperation, 2014). Up to 150000 people depend directly on the Black Sea fisheries (Knowler, 2008). Along the Turkish coasts, areas around Trabzon, Samsun, Ordu are focal points for the fish industry (Balciakova, 2015) and about half of the whole Black Sea capture production is concentrated in the south-eastern region.

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5.3. Wider society and economy implications (e.g. sensitivity/dependency of the economy)

In the Black Sea region, Turkey is a net exporter country and marine fisheries production takes a large proportion of total domestic fish production, which made this region/economy sensitive to CC implications on fisheries sector. For instance, in Turkey, the Black Sea catch correspond to 62 percent of the total catch from Turkish seas (incl. the Sea of Marmara, the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean) in 2013, engaging 45 percent of the total employment in marine fisheries (Country Fiche-Turkey, 2014). As per 2013, the relatively low anchovy catches of 154 ktons, amounts to 58 percent of the total water resources catch within the Turkish Black Sea EEZ, contributing ∼249 million Turkish Liras (TRY) to the national income (Black Sea - Identification of Elements for Sea Basin Cooperation, 2014).

There are still many knowledge gaps regarding the expected impacts of CC on the coastal areas due to the low spatial resolution of most existing projections. Besides the direct physical impacts of CC, there are socio-economic processes that will spur the need for adaptation (Shivarov, 2010). If nation-wide UN projections are extended to regional level, the population on the coast will undergo an increase, reaching a peak in 2040 when it will be 6 percent larger compared to 2005. By the end of this period, 60 percent of the whole population will be condensed along the southern shores (Shivarov, 2010). The latter will lead to deteriorating conditions in the southern part of the basin, exposed to higher sea water temperatures due to climate change and growing anthropogenic pressure (Shivarov, 2010).

6. Synthesis of vulnerability/opportunities of the main fisheries and the dependent communities/economies

• The analysis of country level vulnerability, focused on food security implications of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries, shows moderate level of exposure in Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey and Georgia, and low levels in Ukraine and Russia. The moderate fisheries dependence, allow the vulnerability of the Black Sea region to be ranked as low (Ding et al. 2017).

• The uncertain environment and socio -economic conditions as well as the political and economic diversity between states, as well as a relatively limited cooperation between countries are among the major challenges to be addressed in the region. Climate effects, however, may be masked compared to stock/catch statistics management and marine quality issues (Hills et al. 2013).

• SP emerge as the most vulnerable stocks and the related small-scale fishery is expected to be the most affected activity. As this fishery is concentrated to the southern and south-eastern part, this region is supposed to be more vulnerable to CC impact.

• Warming support introduction of new species, imposing threats to native fish species, leading to food completion (Erdogan et al. 2009). Climate change may reinforce parasitic diseases and impose severe risks for aquatic animal health. As water temperatures increase, many endemic diseases, associated with exotic pathogens may rise (Marcos-Lopez et al. 2010).

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• The future projections of changes in net primary production (Cannaby et al. 2015) and growing season length (Holt, 2016), imply indirect effects on fish stocks and related activities, with possible negative impact in the sough-western region.

• In the Danube delta, the number of days suitable for fishing may be prolonged which would increase pressure on the populations of the main industrial species. Future changes in climate will not trigger a considerable reduction in catches in the Danube, though their quality may deteriorate. Fish production in the Danube lakes/reservoirs may decrease due to the worsening of water exchange and lower water quality (Nesterenko et al. 2014).

• Major economic effects can result from rising sea level and increasing occurrence of extreme weather events with substantial impact on river deltas, coastal lakes and wetlands (Tingle, 2006). Among the threatened areas are the Danube delta, the Dniester estuary, Rioni & Kizilirmak (UNDP Georgia, 2011, Mikhailov and Mikhailova, 2008). There is a risk of flooding of low lying areas, caused by storm surges and heavy rainfalls, that is exacerbated by increased coastal erosion (Shivarov, 2010).

• The important drivers for future development of the sector lay in the long-term traditions in fish catching and processing industry. Opportunities in Black Sea region are connected to environmentally sustainable fisheries, development of innovative products, improved marketing strategies and innovative advisory services.

7. Responses and adaptation measures

7.1 Existing regional initiatives

The effects of CC vary on a regional scale, due to different vulnerabilities, potential and resources for response, plans and policies (Hills et al, 2013). The existing measures are connected with implementation of: i) The mid-term strategy towards the sustainability of Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries (GFCM, 2016); ii)The Strategic Action Plan of the Black Sea Commission (BS SAP, 2009), setting sort-term and mid-term targets for the major regional environmental problems; iii) The Memorandum of Understanding between Black Sea Commission and GFCM, ensuring mutual effort in application of the ecosystem -based approach for the conservation of the marine environment and sustainable use of marine living resources. Consistent with MSFD implementation, Bulgaria and Romania developed Bilateral and National Programs of Measures, including ecosystem monitoring in policy framework. The River Basins Management Plans and Flood Risk Management Plans (related to implementation of The EU Water Directive and Floods Directive) including risk assessment, mapping and modelling of potential future scenarios and establishing the most threatened regions from drought/floods are prepared in the both countries.

7.2. National responses.

Limited information is provided about the adaptation measures in fisheries sector in the National Adaptation Plans (NAP) of Bulgaria and Romania, since the sector data are combined

105 with agriculture or concern biodiversity. The “First biennial report of the Russian federation (2014)” shows measures for mitigation the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and in the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation (2009) the focus is set to develop and implement immediate and long-term measures to adapt to the CC but these documents lack information regarding the fisheries sector. Overall, the Russian Federation has an advantage of better adaptive potential due to substantial water resources and relatively low proportion of the population residing on the territories particularly vulnerable to CC. NAP work in Georgia is at very initial stage. The Government of Georgia has launched the NAP process in 2016 and the next steps will include preparation of stocktaking report, formulation of a medium-term NAP roadmap and stakeholders’ roadmap validation.

There are examples of transboundary adaptation strategies in Black Sea region, such as Action Plan for Danube Delta (Nesterenko et al. 2014), that includes tree countries - Romania - Ukraine – Moldova. The Delta area provides a mosaic of wetlands, lakes and reedbeds, hosting ~3000 species (among them 95 fish species). The main adaptation measures, presented in this Action Plan, are developed around the harmonizing the timing of fishing bans, fishing quotas and norms for all three countries together with joint monitoring of fish stocks (Nesterenko et al. 2014).

7.3 Relevant challenges and potential directions: institutional and management, livelihoods and, risk and resilience

Adaptation in fisheries and aquaculture can include a variety of policy/governance actions, specific technical support or community capacity building activities that address multiple sectors, not only capture fisheries or aquaculture (Shelton, 2014). The adaptation strategies are linked to non-climate factors such as socio-economic development of the coastal regions. The parallel changes in the physical and in the socio-economic environment require a holistic approach to the complex issues of management and the involvement of different stakeholders’ groups (Shivarov, 2010). Partnerships between private, public, civil society and NGO sectors are vital for CC adaptation planning (Shelton, 2014).

With the fast pace of development in Black Sea region, capacity development will continue to be a key requirement, and will be needed at different levels - individual skills, organisational/institutional development, as well capacity at a broader societal level. Key policy requirements might include: mechanisms to identify current and emerging capacity gaps, and to develop associated training and other forms of capacity development to bridge these; utilising the approach adopted by Black Sea Commission and its regional activity centres to identify and develop regional centres of excellence for different disciplines (Identification of Elements for Black Sea Basin Cooperation, 2014).

Marine spatial planning and integrated coastal -zone management practices are in the inception phase in the Black Sea region. Thus, opportunity lie in development of institutional coordinating mechanisms, especially between national and local authority levels; provision of stable financial resources to support innovative, transparent, and robust local development; linking maritime spatial planning and infrastructure development strategic planning; innovation in smart infrastructure development (Identification of Elements for Sea Basin Cooperation, 2014).

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The projections of how CC will affect interspecific relationships and how individual species will respond to CC are still uncertain. Emphasising that Black Sea ecosystem is strongly interconnected, the management should account for the linkages and mechanisms behind system dynamics in order protect ecosystem integrity, function and diversity (Daskalov, 2003). Improving trade policies, establishing safety nets for coastal communities, undertaking management reforms, securing property rights, and conserving marine biodiversity through protected areas are parts of the responses that help to reverse the decline of marine fishery under the impact of changing climate (Sherman et al. 2009).

8. References

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Bingel, F., Gücü, A. C. (2010). Black Sea anchovy and stock assessment, in Proceedings of the Sustainable Fisheries Workshop, National Anchovy Workshop, (Trabzon), 38–57.

Bilio M., Niermann U. (2004). Is the comb jelly really to blame for it all? Mnemiopsis leidyi and the ecological concerns about the Caspian Sea MEPS 269:173-183 (2004) - doi:10.3354/meps269173

Boltachev, A., Karpova, E., Danilyuk, O., (2009). Findings of new and rare fish species in the coastal zone of the Crimea (the Black Sea). Journal of Ichthyology, 49 (4), 277–291.

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BS SAP (2009). Strategic Action Plan for the Environmental Protection and Rehabilitation of the Black Sea, Adopted in Sophia, Bulgaria; http://www.blacksea- commission.org/_bssap2009.asp

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The Expert Meeting on Climate Change Implications for Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries, was held at the GFCM, Rome, 4-6 December 2017, to review the available information on the observed and expected impacts of climate change to Mediterranean and Black Sea fisheries. The meeting also elaborated elements of a methodology and roadmap for vulnerability assessment, which will contribute to the development of a regional adaptation strategy to cope with the potential effects of climate change on fisheries.