The Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Kazakhstan
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Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 AvailableAvailable online online at at www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia ScienceDirectScienceDirect EnergyEnergy ProcediaProcedia 00125 (20 (2017)17) 000 63–70–000 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, EGU EuropeanDivision Geosciences Energy, Resources Union General & Environment, Assembly 2017, ERE EGU Division Energy, Resources & Environment, ERE The water-energy-food nexus in Kazakhstan: The 15th water-energy-food International Symposium nexus on District in Kazakhstan:Heating and Cooling challenges and opportunities challenges and opportunities Assessing the feasibilitya, of usingb the heat demand-coutdoor Marat Karatayeva,*, Pedro Rivottib, Zenaida Sobral Mourãoc, temperatureMarat functionD. Karatayev Dennis Konadufor*, Pedroa longc, Nilay Rivotti-term Shah, Zenaida districtb, Michèle Sobral heat Clarke Mourão demandd , forecast D. Dennis Konaduc, Nilay Shahb, Michèle Clarked aEnergya,b,c Technologies Researcha Institute, aUniversity of Nottingham,b NG7 2TU, Nottingham,c UK c I. AndriaćEnergybCentre* Technologies, forA. Process Pina ResearchSystems, P. FerrãoEngineering, Institute, University, J.Imperial Fournier of Co Nottingham,llege London,., B. NG7 LacarrièreSW7 2TU, 2AZ, Nottingham, London,UK, O. UK Le Corre bCentrecDepartment for Process of SystemsEngineering, Engineering, University Imperial of Cambridge, College London,CB2 1PZ, SW7 Cambridge,UK 2AZ, London,UK aIN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal dSchoolcDepartment of Geography, of Engineering, University of University Nottingham, of Cambridge, University Park, CB2 1PZ,NG7 Cambridge,UK2RD, Nottingham,UK bVeolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France dSchool of Geography, University of Nottingham, University Park, NG7 2RD, Nottingham,UK cDépartement Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France Abstract Abstract TheAbstract concept of the water, energy, food nexus is extremely relevant to Kazakhstan as the country faces population growth, economicThe concept progress of the and water, environmental energy, food challenges nexus is such extremely as water relevant scarcity, to desertification,Kazakhstan as andthe climatecountry ch facesange. population Furthermore, growth, poor economic progress and environmental challenges such as water scarcity, desertification, and climate change. Furthermore, poor sectoralDistrict coordination heating networks and inadequate are commonly infrastructure addressed have in thecaused literature unsustainable as one of resource the most use effective and threate solutionsn the forlong-term decreasing water, the sectoral coordination and inadequate infrastructure have caused unsustainable resource use and threaten the long-term water, energygreenhouse and food gas emissionssecurity in from Kazakhstan. the building This sector. study Thesepresents systems the key require elements high requiredinvestments to implement which are returneda nexus-based through resource the heat energy and food security in Kazakhstan. This study presents the key elements required to implement a nexus-based resource managementsales. Due toapproach the changed in Kazakhstan, climate conditions by identifying and lbuildinginkages betweenrenovation water policies, resources, heat energydemand production in the future and couldagriculture. decrease, A management approach in Kazakhstan, by identifying linkages between water resources, energy production and agriculture. A caseprolonging study illustrates the investment how this return methodology period. can be applied to quantify linkages between the water and energy sectors. case study illustrates how this methodology can be applied to quantify linkages between the water and energy sectors. The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand ©forecast. 2017 The The Authors. district Published of Alvalade, by Elsevier located Ltd. in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665 Peer-review©© 20172017 TheThe Authors.underAuthors. responsibility PublishedPublished by byof ElsevierElsevierthe scientific Ltd.Ltd. committee of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 Peer-reviewbuildings that under vary responsibility in both construction of the scientific period committeeand typology. of the Three European weather Geosciences scenarios (low,Union (EGU)medium, Generalhigh) andAssembly three district –Peer-review Division Energy, under responsibilityResources and of the the Environment scientific committee (ERE). of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 2017renovation – Division scenarios Energy, were Resources developed and the(shallow, Environment intermediate, (ERE). deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were – Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE). compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors. Keywords:The results Water; showed Energy; that Food; when Nexus; only Kazakhstanweather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications Keywords: Water; Energy; Food; Nexus; Kazakhstan (the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). 1.The Background value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the 1. Background decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and renovationKazakhstan scenarios is one considered). of the most On water the other scarce hand, countrie functions onintercept the Eurasian increased continent for 7.8-12.7% [1]. Globalper decade climate (depending change on has the madecoupledKazakhstan water scenarios). resources is one The of invalues theKazakhstan most suggested water even couldscarce scarcer. be countrie used Th to esmodify meanon the theannual Eurasian function precipitation continent parameters [1].has for Globaldecreasedthe scenarios climate by considered, 0.5 cha mmnge hasper and madeimprove water the accuracyresources of inheat Kazakhstan demand estimations. even scarcer. The mean annual precipitation has decreased by 0.5 mm per © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and * Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 (0) 115 951 5151; fax: +44 (0) 115 951 3666. Cooling* E-mailCorresponding .address: author. [email protected]; Tel.: +44 (0) 115 951 5151; fax: m.karataev@gmail +44 (0) 115 951 3666..com E-mail address: [email protected]; [email protected] Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review1876-6102 © 2017under The responsibility Authors. Published of the by scientific Elsevier committeeLtd. of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 –Peer-review Division Energy, under responsibilityResources and of the the Environment scientific committee (ERE). of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 – Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE). 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017 – Division Energy, Resources and the Environment (ERE). 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.064 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.064 1876-6102 64 Marat Karatayev et al. / Energy Procedia 125 (2017) 63–70 2 Karatayev et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 decade [2]. Meanwhile, future projections suggest a temperature increase of 1.4°C by 2030 and 2.7°C by 2050 [2]. Water resources in Kazakhstan are unevenly distributed geographically by river basin - for example, to meet water demand in the industrial area near Karaganda, in the Nura-Sarysu river basin, an irrigation canal transfers water from the Irtysh river basin. Moreover, around 45% of the renewable water resources are transboundary flows from Central Asia, China and Russia. The cross-border Irtysh, Ili, Chu, Talas, Ural and Syr Darya and some others rivers bring nearly 44.64 km3 of water to Kazakhstan [3]. It is estimated that these inflows could decrease to 31.6 km3 per year by 2030 [4]. The major water demand sectors are agriculture, industry and the energy sector, with agriculture accounting for almost 70% of total water demand [4]. Future population growth and urbanization together with fast GDP growth is likely to result in increased demand for energy, food and water. This notwithstanding, efficiency in the water sector is very low, with losses accounting for 45% of total water use [3]. Kazakhstan