UKRAINE CRISIS HORIZON (30 Nov - 06 Dec 2020)

KEY EVENTS 1 Event 1 Russia Warns Incoming Moldovan President On Troops Withdrawals In Breakaway Region Energy/Pipelines 2020-11-30 The Kremlin on Monday rebuffed calls by Moldova's incoming president, Maia Sandu, for Russian troops to withdraw Russia Controlled Area from the breakaway region of Transdniestria, saying it would be seriously destabilising. REUTERS 2 No IMF Funding For Ukraine Until Zelenskyy Earns Trust 2020-11-30 In May 2020, the International Monetary Funding (IMF) concluded an eighteen-month standby agreement with Ukraine worth USD 5 billion, with an immediate disbursement of USD 2.1 billion. A second disbursement was planned for September, but did not take place because Ukraine had not carried out the necessary prior actions. ATLANTICCOUNCIL 3 UN Security Council To Hold Meeting On Ukraine With DPR, LPR Envoys — Source 2020-12-01 The UN Security Council will hold an informal meeting on the situation in Ukraine with the participation of envoys from the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk (DPR and LPR) on Wednesday. TASS 4 It’s Time To Start Treating Ukraine’s Corrupt Judiciary As A Criminal Syndicate 2020-12-01 Ironically enough, Ukraine’s justice system shares many similarities with the hit TV show. While officially independent, in reality the Ukrainian judiciary has a number of unofficial kingpins and bosses who control it from behind the scenes. It is governed by unwritten rules. Bribery is routine. ATLANTICCOUNCIL 5 Ukrainian Army Plans To Take Part In 22 Multinational Drills In 2021 2020-12-02 The Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to participate in 22 multinational military drills, including eight in Ukraine and 14 abroad, in 2021, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's press service reported on Wednesday. 新华⽹ 6 Russia Blocks Decision On Monitoring Of Ukraine-Russia Border 2020-12-03 Ukraine and another 33 OSCE participating states have drafted a ministerial decision to establish a permanent monitoring of the areas adjacent to the uncontrolled part of Ukraine-Russia border by the OSCE mission. Russia has blocked the decision. UKRINFORM 7 Russia's Envoy To UN Admits Donbas War Not "Ukraine's Internal Conflict" 2020-12-03 Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, admitted that the war in Donbas is not an internal conflict, but a "political" conflict between Russia and Ukraine. That's according to the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group on Donbas settlement. UNIAN AI Powered Crisis Situation 8 Ukraine’s Parliament Restores Anti-Corruption Legislation This product is prepared by a group of subject matter experts using a number of open 2020-12-04 Ukraine’s Constitutional Court annulled key parts of anti-corruption legislation that Ukraine approved after persistent sources with a hybrid methodology that merges both traditional methods and AI-powered, Western demands. The October ruling triggered a standoff with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who warned that it could cost the data-driven approaches. country financial support and sought the high court’s dissolution. APNEWS 9 Foreign Ministry Sees Ukraine As Full Member Of NATO In 2030 Political Situation 2020-12-04 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs views Ukraine as a full-fledged member of NATO in 2030, and believes that a Membership Action Plan (MAP) will provide a strong incentive for Ukraine to mobilize efforts to meet the criteria for membership. Geopolitical Situation UKRINFORM 10 Singing Off-Key? Kyiv, Budapest Clash Over Rights Of Ethnic Hungarians In Ukraine Governence 2020-12-04 The inaugural council session in a sleepy village on the western fringes of Ukraine was winding down in late November. It has added to an ongoing diplomatic spat stemming from alleged Hungarian interference in the region. RFERL Economic Situation 11 Russian Ships Move To Baltic Sea Areas To Resume Construction Of Controversial Pipeline 2020-12-06 A Russian pipe-laying ship has moved into position to resume construction of a natural-gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea that the United States, Ukraine, and other countries have vehemently opposed. RFERL Environment

Socio-cultural ASSESSMENT

The "Arria-formula meetings" are very informal, confidential gatherings which enable Security Council members to have a frank and Military Situation private exchange of views, within a flexible procedural framework, with persons whom the inviting member or members of the Council believe it would be beneficial to hear and/or to whom they may wish to convey a message. Overall On December 2, Russia initiated an interactive meeting of the UN Security Council on the “Arria formula” inviting representatives of the occupation authorities of the unrecognized “LPR” and “DPR”. The meeting was attended by representatives of 17 countries. Ukraine, the USA, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Estonia and Belgium have boycotted the online informal meeting of the UN Security Council on the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Up to "Arria-formula Meetings Working Methods Handbook", such informal gatherings do not constitute an activity of the Council. Beyond the Horizon International Strategic Studies Group Taking the roles in "Ukraine Crisis" of 17 countries participated in the meeting into account, Russia seems to use one of the "UN www.behorizon.org © 2020 negotiation mechanisms" as an official platform to prove its case in conflict.