The Security Dynamics of Eu-Russia and Asean-China Relations
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ROLE BARGAINING AND REGIONAL ORDERS: THE SECURITY DYNAMICS OF EU-RUSSIA AND ASEAN-CHINA RELATIONS By Margaryta Rymarenko Submitted to Central European University Doctoral School of Political Science, Public Policy and International Relations In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Philosophy Doctor Supervisors: Youngmi Kim, Daniel Large CEU eTD Collection Word Count: 75 448 Budapest, Hungary 2018 DECLARATION I hereby declare that no parts of this thesis have been accepted for any other degrees in any other institutions. This thesis contains no material previously written and/or published by another person, except where appropriate acknowledgement is made in the form of bibliographical reference. Margaryta Rymarenko January 23, 2018 CEU eTD Collection ii To Professor Boris Yatsenko, who inspired my interest in Regional and Area Studies, and to my sister Kate, who encouraged me to do a PhD. CEU eTD Collection iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many wonderful people made my PhD experience truly amazing. I would like to thank my panel members Youngmi Kim, Matteo Fumagalli and Michael Merlingen, who supported me at all stages of this project. They not only helped me to grow as a researcher in my chosen field, but also encouraged me to pursue my interests in other areas and to advance my skills in teaching and research. I would especially like to thank Daniel Large, who was my supervisor during the write-up grant period. His advice and guidance helped to improve my project significantly and enabled me to progress to the submission stage. I am grateful to CEU and its amazing community of people. We shared both challenges and successes as well as great memories. I am thankful to Alex Akbik, Daniel Izsak, Tamas Peragovics, Viktor Friedmann, Philipp Thaler, Annamaria Kiss, Ali Diskaya and Thomas Rooney, who inspired, supported and challenged my ideas, as well as helped to make this draft professional. I am also thankful to CEU for giving me the opportunity to live and study in Budapest and to conduct my research in Belgium, Myanmar, Thailand and Singapore. I would like to thank CEU Hiking and Travelling Club and CEU Rooftop Garden initiative that allowed me to discover the beauty of Hungary, to make true friends and to spend many wonderful and distressful hours outdoors. Most importantly, I am thankful to my family whose love and support helped me to survive this PhD adventure. CEU eTD Collection iv ABSTRACT This dissertation examines how and why regional orders transform into cooperative or conflictual security environments. It develops a role theory approach to the understanding of regional security dynamics, which emphasizes processes of role bargaining between key regional actors and their governance practices. It argues that the co-impact of these two processes determines whether cooperative or conflictual security patterns develop in a region. The framework is applied to examine the evolution of the intersubjective security environments in EU-Russia and ASEAN-China interaction from the end of the Cold War until 2017. It argues that the EU and Russia failed to establish a mutually accepted role relationship though bargaining, which resulted in the reproduction of a conflictual security order. In contrast, the ASEAN-China role bargaining process was successful and maintained a cooperative intersubjective security order. Deviations of regional security patterns from the nature of regional order are analyzed in the cases of EU-Russia confrontation over Ukraine in the Eastern Partnership and ASEAN-China contentions over the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. In each case, the deviation resulted from actors’ preference for an inclusive or protectionist governance approach and their actual practices supporting or undermining the exiting governance consensus. Focusing on the processes of regional security dynamics, rather than structural or actor- specific factors, allows the fluid nature of regional security to be captured and contributes to our understanding of regional orders as spaces driven by power, interaction and imagination. CEU eTD Collection v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ................................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................................. iv ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................ v TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................................. vi LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ viii LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................................... ix INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 1 Research Puzzles .............................................................................................................................. 2 Limitations of Existing Literature .................................................................................................... 4 A Role Theory Approach to Regional Security Dynamics .............................................................. 8 The Focus on Regional Organizations and Great Powers .............................................................. 11 Contributions of the Dissertation ................................................................................................... 14 Overview of Dissertation Chapters ................................................................................................ 17 CHAPTER 1: REGIONS AND ORDER ....................................................................................... 20 1.1. Regional Security Complex Theories: Why Focus on Regions? ............................................ 21 1.2. Security Community Theory: Upgrading Regional Impact .................................................... 27 1.3. Socialization as a Process of Regional Transformations......................................................... 31 1.4. Bridging ‘Balance of Power’ and ‘Security Community’: the Role of Agency ..................... 36 1.5. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 44 CHAPTER 2: A ROLE THEORY APPROACH TO REGIONAL SECURITY DYNAMICS 47 2.1. Role Location Approach as a Basis for Theorizing Regional Transformations...................... 49 2.2. Role Bargaining, Role Relationships and Intersubjective Security Orders............................. 54 2.3. Actors’ Governance Approaches and Practices in Regional Security Dynamics ................... 62 2.4. Regional Security Dynamics as a Two-Level Process ............................................................ 70 2.5. Research Design and Methods ................................................................................................ 73 2.6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 84 CHAPTER 3: THE EU-RUSSIA ROLE BARGAINING PROCESS: FROM COMPLEMENTARITY TO RIVALRY ....................................................................................... 86 CEU eTD Collection 3.1. Complementary Roles and Successful Role Bargaining, 1994-2005...................................... 88 3.2. Contradictory Roles and Failed Role Bargaining, 2006-2014 ................................................ 96 3.3. Ukrainian Crisis of 2013-2014 and Consolidation of a Conflictual Security Order ............. 107 3.4. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 113 CHAPTER 4: THE ASEAN-CHINA ROLE BARGAINING PROCESS: CONSOLIDATING ROLE AGREEMENT ................................................................................................................... 115 4.1. The Development of a Complementary Role Relationship, 1993-2001 ............................... 117 vi 4.2. Role Agreement and Sustained Cooperative Security Order, 2002-2012 ............................. 126 4.3. New Round of Role Bargaining and Return to Complementarity, 2013-2016 ..................... 136 4.4. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 150 CHAPTER 5: SECURITY DYNAMICS OF THE EU-RUSSIA RELATIONS: CONFLICT OVER UKRAINE IN THE COMMON NEIGHBORHOOD.................................................... 152 5.1. The EU-Russia Governance Consensus and Non-confrontation in 2009-2013 .................... 154 5.1.1. Initial Consensus over the Common Neighborhood ....................................................... 155 5.1.2. Role Bargaining Without Confrontation ........................................................................ 157 5.2. The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and Deviation from 2005 Consensus .................. 165 5.2.1. The Importance of Ukraine ............................................................................................