Geography Unit 3 Notes

Energy Security

Energy supply, demand and security

Types of energy source

• 85% of global energy consumption in 2007 was from fossil fuels. • Dependence on fossil fuels has only emerged over the past few hundred years. Pre – industrial revolution most energy sources were renewable. • Environmental consequences of using renewable, non-renewable and recyclable energy; o Renewable sources produce no carbon dioxide and do not directly contribute to atmospheric pollution. o Non-renewable sources emit carbon dioxide during combustion and are the cause of global warming. o Recyclable biomass and biofuels emit carbon dioxide but reabsorb it when they are regrown – making them potentially close to being ‘carbon neutral’. • Nuclear power stations do not emit carbon dioxide but there are significant environmental concerns about the radioactive uranium fuel, and the long-term problem of disposing of nuclear waste.

Distribution Preview from Notesale.co.uk

• Direct access to energy resources is determined primarily by the physical geography of an area. Page 1 of 34 • For example, with tidal ranges of up to 15 metres, some of ’s strongest winds and many glacial valleys, the UK has significant renewable resource potential. • Conversely, high latitude areas such as the UK have low solar power potential. • Areas that are tectonically active such as Iceland have much higher geothermal potential. • Similar energy resources are concentrated geographically; o In 2005, 4 countries made up over 70% of global uranium production for nuclear power – led by Canada (28%) and Australia (23%). o By 2025, 60% of the world’s oil supply will come from the Middle East. o 27% of all proven natural gas reserves are in . • As a result of geography, some countries have vast energy surpluses (Saudi Arabia and Russia) but others suffer from energy poverty. • This has resulted in a mismatch between demand for fossil fuels and supply. • Some countries have huge energy potential (Mali with huge solar potential) but cannot afford to implement it due to the technology being very expensive.

Energy use

• The energy ‘mix’ a country chooses results from a number of factors. o Physical – the availability of North Sea natural gas contributed to a ‘dash for gas’ in the early 1990’s. o Public Perception – in the 1950’s and 1960’s nuclear power was perceived as a positive example of technology, but after Chernobyl in 1986, the public turned against nuclear power. o Politics – nuclear power is back on the agenda due to fears over the politics of gas supply from Russia, although the 2011 Fukushima disaster shows that there are still nuclear issues. o Technology – solar panels efficiency increased from 5% energy conversion to 40% energy conversion between 1970 and 2008, increasing its viability. o Economics – wind power is becoming increasingly competitive with fossil fuels. In the USA the installed cost is around $55 per MWh – almost the same as coal and gas. In addition, if a country is industrialising then they may be more reliant on fossil fuels. o Environment – concerns about global warming have led a move towards renewable sources. UK wind generating capacity increased from under 500MW in 2001 to 5200MW by 2011.

Energy trends Preview from Notesale.co.uk

• Energy demand globally is projected to groPagew by as much as 50% between 2 of 34 2005 and 2030. • Growth is expected to be 0.7% per year in developed countries but over 2.5% in emerging economies such as and . • In China, for example, coal use increased by 17% per year between 2002 and 2005 as the country tried to meet its insatiable demand for power. • Most future energy consumption projections are based on a continued reliance on fossil fuels rather than a switch to nuclear power and renewables because; o Nuclear power plants are costly to build and take up to 10 years to complete. o Renewable sources such as wind are seen as unreliable. o Solar power has proved difficult to ‘up-scale’ – e.g. implement on a large basis. o China and India have both 10% of world coal reserves, and coal power stations can be built cheaply and quickly. • If projected energy demand materialises, it will have implications for the price of fossil fuels as well as having major environmental consequences.

Water

• International agreements and treaties have been drawn up as a framework to manage the distribution and use of shared water supplies. • Under the Helsinki Rules, there is a general agreement that international treaties must include concepts such as ‘equitable use’ within a drainage basin when devising criteria for water sharing. Criteria include: o Natural factors o Downstream impacts o Social and economic needs o Prior use • Because both upstream and downstream nations lay claim to water sources, the player with the greatest , economic and political power is the winner. This renders legislation vital. An example of this legislation is the ‘Law of the River’, which operates to share out the waters of Colorado between the US states and Mexico.

Water transfers

• Water transfers involve the diversion of water from one drainage basin to another either by diverting the river itself or by constructing a large canal to carry available water from the area of surplus to the area of deficit. • There are currently numerous large-scale water transfer schemes in operation, where the engineering behind them and the actual water transfers has been a success, but where there have been simultaneous environmental and social disadvantages. Preview from Notesale.co.uk • The water transfer schemes are being expanded to such a large scale, and are becoming a techno-fix for water redistribution. Having said this, they come with vast environmental and economic costs, so much so that Page 13 of 34 desalination in places such as Spain and is becoming viable.

Water conflicts and the future

• In the near future, total projected water withdrawals are predicted to reach over 5,000km3 per year by 2025. If this prediction was to be fulfilled, there is likely to be a considerable impact on the natural environment as well as on people’s health and wellbeing. There will, in turn, be a knock-on effect to the food security of the world’s poorest people. • There are three alternative futures for water consumption: o Business as usual – reduced food production, developing countries will become reliant on food imports and will experience increased hunger and malnutrition. In Africa, grain imports will more than triple. o Sustainable water path – global water consumption and industrial water use would have to fall significantly, agricultural and household water prices might have to double in developed countries and triple in the developing world. Food production could increase slightly and prices could fall slightly. o A bi-polar world is one where two opposing exist. o A multi-polar world is one with three or more superpowers.

• Post WW2, the British Empire declined quickly, so much so that by 1970 it had ceased to exist. This happened because: o Colonial countries demanded independence and political movements such as Gandhi’s in India proved difficult to resist. o The UK could not afford to run a global empire, as the war had bankrupted the country. o There was a need to focus on post-war rebuilding and renewal in the UK, rather than in far-flung countries. • Many people argue that geography is becoming more multi-polar, moving away from the uni-polar world with the USA as the dominant power. The emergence of new Preview from Notesale.co.uk potential superpowers such as the can be explained by: o Energy resources. Page 18 of 34 o Alliances – EU growth from 6 countries in 1957 to an economic and political alliance of 27 in 2009. EU GDP exceeds that of the USA. o . o Demographic weight – large population = large workforce and huge market potential. o Nuclear Weapons. Theories

• There are various theories to explain why there are rich and poor countries. o Liberal economic development theories emphasise the creation of wealth and power and view capitalism as an essential tool for creating wealth.

The BRICs

• , Russia, India and China are all emerging powers and potential superpowers. • The BRICs are rapidly adopting communication technology, and improving expectancy through better healthcare. • The emerging powers benefit from : o In China, 200 million people moved out of poverty between 1990 and 2005 o India’s middle class has swelled to over 300 million o In Brazil the number of households with an income of $5,900- $22,000 grew from 14.3 million to 22.3 million between 2000 and 2005, and households earning under $3,000 fell by 1.3 million. • This increase in wealth and population has meant that BRIC residents are becoming global consumers. This has the potential to improve quality of life and happiness, but also to increase heart disease, obesity and stress- related illness. In China, growing wealth could increase pressure for political change, freedom and democracy. • A world of BRIC consumers is likely to be one of strained resources and environmental concerns. Predictions of GDP per capita in BRIC nations by 2050 indicate that they will be consuming resources at a similar level to the UK and USA today. This would have major implications for water resources, land, air quality and ecological footprint.

Out with the old and in with the new? Preview from Notesale.co.uk

• The BRICs may challenge the superpower status of the USA and the relevance of the EU. Indeed, there are even plans to change the UN Page 23 of 34 security Council – India and Brazil are serious candidates to get a permanent seat on the SC. There are other threats to existing powers; o Resources – as supplies reduce, countries may find themselves in a bidding war to claim resources. o Military dominance – three of the BRICs are now nuclear powers (Russia, China and India), and this could increasingly shift the balance of military might towards . o Space – once the preserve of the USSR, USA and European Space Agency, both China and India have active, well-funded manned space programmes to explore the final frontier. o Outsourcing – India has benefitted form software and IT outsourcing, and China from the global shift in manufacturing. If this continues and expands, jobs and prosperity in the West could be eroded. o Ageing – and much of the EU have increasingly ageing populations and face a pension-funding crisis. This is also a problem for China (a result of its ‘one-child’ policy) and Russia. India and Brazil are much more youthful, and potentially innovative.