长安汽车a (000625.Sz) 2014 年一季度业绩强劲:销量增长/产品周期

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长安汽车a (000625.Sz) 2014 年一季度业绩强劲:销量增长/产品周期 2014 年 4 月 14 日 公司最新消息 长安汽车 A (000625.SZ) 买入 证券研究报告 2014 年一季度业绩强劲:销量增长/产品周期依然强劲;买入 最新事件 投资摘要 长安汽车于 4 月 10 日发布了 2014 年一季度盈利预告,预计实现净利润人民币 低 高 18.5 亿至 20.5 亿元,较高华预测高 8%-20%,主要受到长安自主品牌销量强劲 增长 回报* 增长以及长安福特投资收益上升的推动。据 ChinaAutoMarket,长安汽车 3 月份 估值倍数 销量同比增长 39.7%,高于整体乘用车市场 13.6%的增速。长安福特销量同比增 波动性 长 29.7%,受到其翼虎/翼搏/新蒙迪欧/新福克斯车型销售持续强劲的支撑。长安 百分位 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th 自主品牌同比增长 65.7%,高于自主品牌汽车整体 9.2%的平均增速,得益于逸 长安汽车 (A) (000625.SZ) 动/CS35/悦翔 V3 的销售强劲。 亚太汽车及其零部件行业平均水平 * 回报 - 资本回报率 投资摘要指标的全面描述请参见本 报告的信息披露部分。 潜在影响 我们认为合资品牌/自主品牌的产品周期可能依然强劲,原因在于 2014-2015 年 主要数据当前 新车型/换代车型不断上市:新一代马自达 3 于 4 月上市,福特紧凑型轿车 Escort 股价(Rmb) 10.84 12个月目标价格(Rmb) 13.24 于 2014 年二季度上市,中型 SUV 锐界于 2014 年四季度上市,大型轿车 Taurus 200625.SZ 股价(HK$) 13.97 200625.SZ 12个月目标价格(HK$) 15.14 于 2015 年上半年上市,林肯轿车于 2016 年上市,DS4 三厢于 2014 年上市, 市值(Rmb mn / US$ mn) 45,541.5 / 7,332.0 DS SUV 于 2014 年上市,长安自主品牌紧凑型 SUV CS75 于 2014 年二季度上 外资持股比例(%) -- 12/13 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E 市,新奔奔于 2014 年下半年上市,新悦翔于 2014 年 10 月/11 月上市。我们将 每股盈利(Rmb) 新 0.75 1.25 1.56 1.82 每股盈利调整幅度(%) (3.0) 3.5 4.8 4.8 长安汽车 2014-16 年每股盈利预测上调了 4%/5%/5%,以体现强劲的产品周期令 每股盈利增长(%) 142.4 67.3 24.8 16.8 每股摊薄盈利(Rmb) 新 0.75 1.25 1.56 1.82 合资品牌/自主品牌利润率强于预期。 市盈率(X) 13.4 8.7 7.0 6.0 市净率(X) 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.5 EV/EBITDA(X) 99.9 60.6 48.3 41.4 股息收益率(%) 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.0 估值 净资产回报率(%) 20.6 28.2 28.3 27.0 根据调高的预测,我们将基于市净率-净资产回报率的 12 个月目标价格上调至人 CROCI(%) 22.4 23.6 24.7 25.0 民币 13.24 元/15.14 港元(原为人民币 12.72 元/14.69 港元),基于 2.69 倍 股价走势图 /2.43 倍的 2014 年预期市净率和 27.8%的 2014-16 年预期净资产回报率均值(原 13.0 3,000 为 2.59 倍/2.34 倍,26.9%),隐含 22.1%/8.4%的上行空间。长安 A 股价对应的 12.5 2,900 12.0 2,800 2014 年预期市盈率为 8.7 倍(A 股均值为 9.0 倍,一汽轿车除外),2013-16 年 11.5 2,700 预期每股盈利的年均复合增速为 35%(A 股均值为 14%,一汽轿车除外)。我们 11.0 2,600 10.5 2,500 重申对长安 A 的买入评级,并维持对长安 B 的中性评级。 10.0 2,400 9.5 2,300 9.0 2,200 8.5 2,100 主要风险 8.0 2,000 上行/下行风险:销量/利润率高于预期,价格下降以及来自其它新车型上市的竞 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 争。 长安汽车 (A) (左轴) 沪深300指数 (右轴) 股价表现(%) 3个月 6个月 12个月 绝对 1.8 (8.1) 6.0 所属投资名单 相对于沪深300指数 (1.2) (0.0) 15.6 亚太买入名单 资料来源:公司数据、高盛研究预测、FactSet(股价为4/11/2014收盘价) 行业评级: 中性 杨一朋 (分析师) 执业证书编号: S1420511100006 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企 +86(10)6627-3189 [email protected] 北京高华证券有限责任公司 业存在业务关系,并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此,投资者应当 丁妤倩 (研究助理) +86(10)6627-3327 [email protected] 北京高华证券有限责任公司 考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视 本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要 信息,见信息披露附录,或请与您的投资代表联系。 北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究 2014 年 4 月 14 日 长安汽车 A (000625.SZ) 长安汽车 A: 财务数据概要 损益表(Rmb mn) 12/13 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E 资产负债表(Rmb mn) 12/13 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E 主营业务收入 38,481.7 51,004.3 58,201.3 61,766.2 现金及等价物 4,763.2 5,280.7 4,698.0 3,758.8 主营业务成本 (31,516.5) (41,619.5) (47,434.1) (50,277.7) 应收账款 10,332.1 13,694.3 15,626.7 16,583.8 销售、一般及管理费用 (6,503.4) (8,568.7) (9,719.6) (10,222.3) 存货 5,353.5 6,841.6 7,797.4 8,264.8 研发费用 -- -- -- -- 其它流动资产 540.0 540.0 540.0 540.0 其它营业收入/(支出) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 流动资产 20,988.8 26,356.6 28,662.0 29,147.4 EBITDA 461.8 816.1 1,047.6 1,266.2 固定资产净额 15,478.7 17,689.7 20,481.3 23,322.0 折旧和摊销 (1,522.9) (1,693.0) (1,907.7) (2,126.2) 无形资产净额 1,810.6 1,478.3 1,145.9 813.6 EBIT (1,061.1) (876.9) (860.1) (860.0) 长期投资 10,986.6 15,904.3 21,803.0 28,404.1 利息收入 107.6 142.9 158.4 140.9 其它长期资产 2,157.8 2,157.8 2,157.8 2,157.8 财务费用 (202.4) (216.2) (253.5) (301.2) 资产合计 51,422.5 63,586.7 74,250.0 83,844.8 联营公司 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 其它 4,611.6 6,751.9 8,201.6 9,490.0 应付账款 21,586.7 28,506.5 32,489.1 34,436.8 税前利润 3,463.5 5,809.5 7,254.3 8,477.5 短期贷款 250.0 250.0 250.0 750.0 所得税 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 其它流动负债 5,018.3 5,626.6 6,283.4 7,018.0 少数股东损益 42.9 58.2 67.1 72.1 流动负债 26,854.9 34,383.2 39,022.5 42,204.7 长期贷款 3,705.3 3,705.3 4,305.3 4,805.3 优先股股息前净利润 3,506.3 5,867.7 7,321.3 8,549.6 其它长期负债 2,573.0 2,573.0 2,573.0 2,573.0 优先股息 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 长期负债 6,278.3 6,278.3 6,878.3 7,378.3 非经常性项目前净利润 3,506.3 5,867.7 7,321.3 8,549.6 负债合计 33,133.3 40,661.5 45,900.9 49,583.1 税后非经常性损益 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 净利润 3,506.3 5,867.7 7,321.3 8,549.6 优先股 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 普通股权益 18,454.1 23,148.3 28,639.3 34,624.0 每股基本盈利(非经常性项目前)(Rmb) 0.75 1.25 1.56 1.82 少数股东权益 (164.9) (223.0) (290.1) (362.2) 每股基本盈利(非经常性项目后)(Rmb) 0.75 1.25 1.56 1.82 每股摊薄盈利(非经常性项目后)(Rmb) 0.75 1.25 1.56 1.82 负债及股东权益合计 51,422.5 63,586.7 74,250.0 83,844.8 每股股息(Rmb) 0.12 0.25 0.39 0.55 股息支付率(%) 16.1 20.0 25.0 30.0 每股净资产(Rmb) 3.92 4.92 6.09 7.36 自由现金流收益率(%) 0.3 (1.6) (4.6) (6.0) 增长率和利润率(%) 12/13 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E 比率 12/13 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E 主营业务收入增长率 30.6 32.5 14.1 6.1 CROCI(%) 22.4 23.6 24.7 25.0 EBITDA增长率 (8.9) 76.7 28.4 20.9 净资产回报率(%) 20.6 28.2 28.3 27.0 EBIT增长率 (61.5) 17.4 1.9 0.0 总资产回报率(%) 7.2 10.2 10.6 10.8 净利润增长率 142.4 67.3 24.8 16.8 平均运用资本回报率(%) 21.2 30.1 29.5 26.9 每股盈利增长 142.4 67.3 24.8 16.8 存货周转天数 59.4 53.5 56.3 58.3 毛利率 18.1 18.4 18.5 18.6 应收账款周转天数 96.1 86.0 91.9 95.2 EBITDA利润率 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 应付账款周转天数 236.5 219.7 234.7 242.9 EBIT利润率 (2.8) (1.7) (1.5) (1.4) 净负债/股东权益(%) (4.4) (5.8) (0.5) 5.2 EBIT利息保障倍数(X) NM NM NM NM 现金流量表(Rmb mn) 12/13 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E 估值 12/13 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E 优先股股息前净利润 3,506.3 5,867.7 7,321.3 8,549.6 折旧及摊销 1,522.9 1,693.0 1,907.7 2,126.2 基本市盈率(X) 13.4 8.7 7.0 6.0 少数股东权益 (42.9) (58.2) (67.1) (72.1) 市净率(X) 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.5 运营资本增减 1,487.1 2,069.6 1,094.4 523.1 EV/EBITDA(X) 99.9 60.6 48.3 41.4 其它 (4,078.9) (6,792.7) (8,242.4) (9,530.8) 企业价值/总投资现金(X) 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 经营活动产生的现金流 2,394.5 2,779.3 2,014.0 1,596.0 股息收益率(%) 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.0 资本开支 (2,231.9) (3,570.3) (4,365.1) (4,632.5) 收购 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 剥离 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 其它 1,498.4 1,873.7 2,341.9 2,927.6 投资活动产生的现金流 (733.6) (1,696.6) (2,023.2) (1,704.9) 支付股息的现金(普通股和优先股) (233.1) (565.2) (1,173.5) (1,830.3) 借款增减 (250.0) 0.0 600.0 1,000.0 普通股发行(回购) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 其它 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 筹资活动产生的现金流 (483.1) (565.2) (573.5) (830.3) 总现金流 1,177.8 517.5 (582.8) (939.2) 注:最后一个实际年度数据可能包括已公布和预测数据。 资料来源:公司数据、高盛研究预测 对此报告有贡献的人员 杨一朋 [email protected] 丁妤倩 [email protected] 全球投资研究 2 2014 年 4 月 14 日 长安汽车 A (000625.SZ) 我们预计强劲的产品周期将推动盈利迅速增长 2013 年快报业绩符合我们的预期 图表1: 长安汽车的 2013 年快报业绩符合高华的预期 (Rmb mn) FY2013 GH 2013E Var% FY2012 YoY% Revenue 38,482 38,288 1% 29,463 31% Reported net profit 3,506 3,615 ‐3% 1,446 142% Reported EPS (Rmb) 0.75 0.77 ‐3% 0.31 142% (%) Net profit margin 9% 9% 0% 5% 4% 资料来源: 公司数据、高华证券研究 2014 年一季度业绩高于我们的预期 图表2: 长安汽车预告一季度净利润在人民币 18.5 亿元至 20.5 亿元 (Rmb mn) 1Q14 guidance GH 1Q2014 Var% Reported net profit 1,850‐2,050 1,715 8‐20% 资料来源: 公司数据、高华证券研究 我们上调 2014-2016 年每股盈利预测,因长安福特和自主品牌的强劲产品 周期推动其利润率高于预期 图表3: 我们将 2014-16 年每股盈利预测上调 4%/5%/5% 2014E 2015E 2016E (Rmb mn) New Old Diff.
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