DOCSLIB.ORG

An Assesment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Scottish Landscapes and Their Contribution to Quality of Life: Final Report

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
An Assesment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Scottish Landscapes and Their Contribution to Quality of Life: Final Report Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No. 488 An assesment of the impacts of climate change on Scottish landscapes and their contribution to quality of life: Final report COMMISSIONED REPORT Commissioned Report No. 488 An assessment of the impacts of climate change on Scottish landscapes and their contribution to quality of life: Final report For further information on this report please contact: Elli Carlisle Scottish Natural Heritage Great Glen House INVERNESS IV3 8NW Telephone: 01463-725000 E-mail: [email protected] This report should be quoted as: Land Use Consultants (2011). An assessment of the impacts of climate change on Scottish landscapes and their contribution to quality of life: Phase 1 - Final report. Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No. 488 This report, or any part of it, should not be reproduced without the permission of Scottish Natural Heritage. This permission will not be withheld unreasonably. The views expressed by the author(s) of this report should not be taken as the views and policies of Scottish Natural Heritage. © Scottish Natural Heritage 2011. Preface Note on the status of this report This report supersedes the Phase 1 Interim Report. It updates the findings of the Interim Report to take account of the UKCP09 climate change projections. The symbol 09 has been used to indicate where the Interim Report findings have been modified to reflect the UKCP09 projections. Sections 2 and 3, and Appendix 11 of this report provide a detailed analysis of the implications of the UKCP09 projections for the study findings. These find that under UKCP09 and for Scotland, one variable – winter precipitation – is likely to be significantly different in terms of scale and spatial distribution, when compared to the relevant UKCIP02 projections. Acknowledgements This project was carried out in association with CAG Consultants, the University of Sheffield, and University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute. We are grateful for the contributions made by the project steering group and workshop attendees: Deborah Munro, Ian Angus, Phil Baarda, Bill Band, Duncan Blake, Patricia Bruneau, Mary Christie, Joanna Duncan, James Fenton, Richard Ferguson, John Gordon, Sarah Hutcheon, Cathy Manley, Catriona Morrison, Marion Mulholland, Peter Pitkin, Cathy Tilbrook (Scottish Natural Heritage); Graham Esson (Perth and Kinross Council); Matthew Hawkins, Gordon McConachie (Cairngorms National Park Authority); Noel Fojut, Linda Kosciewicz-Fleming (Historic Scotland); Scot Mathieson (Scottish Environment Protection Agency); Fiona Mulholland (Department of Environment, Northern Ireland); Andy Neale (Natural England); and Nicholas Shepherd (Forestry Commission Scotland). i CONTENTS Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report Summary ........................................... xi Glossary............................................................................................................................... xii Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... xvi 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of the study........................................................................................................ 1 Overview of study context................................................................................................ 1 Study scope and limitations ............................................................................................. 3 UKCIP02 and UKCP09 ............................................................................................... 4 Data scale and mapping ............................................................................................. 5 Structure of the report...................................................................................................... 6 How to use this report...................................................................................................... 6 2. Methodology................................................................................................................... 7 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 7 Literature review ..............................................................................................................8 Benchmarking approaches to climate change and the landscape................................... 8 Identification of impacts ................................................................................................... 8 Development of study methodology................................................................................. 9 Application of study methodology .................................................................................. 10 National Analysis........................................................................................................... 10 National level mapping................................................................................................... 10 Workshop discussion..................................................................................................... 11 Local analysis................................................................................................................ 11 Methodology for selection of local study area ........................................................... 11 Mapping.................................................................................................................... 12 Analysis..................................................................................................................... 12 Socio-Economic Scenarios............................................................................................ 13 Ecosystem Services....................................................................................................... 13 Outputs .......................................................................................................................... 14 Recommendations for Phase 2 of the Research ........................................................... 15 UKCP09 Review ............................................................................................................ 15 UKCP09 climate change projections ............................................................................. 15 Differences between UKCIP02 and UKCP09 climate variables .................................... 16 3. Future Climate Change in Scotland ........................................................................... 17 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 17 UKCIP02 Climate Change scenarios for Scotland......................................................... 17 Comparison of UKCIP02 and UKCP09 climate change variables ............................ 26 Winter precipitation................................................................................................... 26 Summer precipitation ................................................................................................ 26 Winter temperature................................................................................................... 27 Summer temperature................................................................................................ 27 Autumn temperature................................................................................................. 27 Annual temperature................................................................................................... 27 Sea level rise............................................................................................................. 34 ii SNIFFER Handbook of Climate Trends......................................................................... 35 Temperature.............................................................................................................. 35 Air pressure related variables ................................................................................... 38 Sunshine related variables........................................................................................ 38 Summary........................................................................................................................ 39 4. Scotland-wide Pattern of Climate Related Change................................................... 40 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 40 Landscape Changes – National Level ........................................................................... 40 Mapping methodology............................................................................................... 55 Forests and woodlands............................................................................................. 55 Freshwater systems.................................................................................................. 71 Coasts, estuaries and sea......................................................................................... 79 Urban and peri-urban ................................................................................................ 87 Tourism and recreation ............................................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Ideas to Inspire
    Highland Perthshire and Dundee Follow the River Tay to the sea Dundee City Council © The Atholl Highlanders, Blair Castle Dundee Contemporary Arts Edradour Distillery, near Pitlochry Looking over Dundee and the River Tay from The Law Ideas to inspire Enjoy a wonderful 4-day countryside and city break in the east of Scotland. Within easy reach of Scotland’s central belt, the striking scenery, history and Brilliant events in Perthshire natural heritage of Highland Perthshire is perfectly complemented by the culture, parks, shopping and food and drink of a Dundee city break. May - Atholl Highlanders Parade & Gathering, Blair Castle July - Kenmore Highland Games Starting in the Pitlochry area, explore the history of elegant Blair Castle, then head for Loch Tummel and admire the wonderful Queen’s View with its July - GWCT Scottish Game Fair, Scone Palace, by Perth delightful Forestry Commission Scotland visitor centre. Neolithic history is the August - Aberfeldy Show & Games next stop as you marvel at the reconstructed Iron Age crannog at the Scottish August - Blair Castle International Horse Trials & Country Fair, Blair Atholl Crannog Centre. End the day with a visit to Dewar’s World of Whisky, where a October - Perthshire Amber Music Festival, various Perthshire venues tour of Aberfeldy Distillery blends perfectly with displays showcasing how Dewar’s has become one of the world’s favourite whiskies. October - The Enchanted Forest, Pitlochry Find out about these and other events at www.visitscotland.com/perthshire Day two begins with a stroll through the woodlands of The Hermitage near Dunkeld, towards the impressive Black Linn waterfall. Next, stop off at Stanley Mills and discover Perthshire’s fascinating industrial heritage, before heading to Perth to explore the absorbing Black Watch Museum.
    [Show full text]
  • View Figure 13.1A-B
    Cairngorms N Figure 13.1a Wild Land Area ? b a Cairngorms National Park Legend Proposed scheme (DMRB Stage 3 Design) Falls of Bruar GDL SuDS IN V ER 5km Study area N E SS Native Woodland Survey of Scotland Ancient Woodland Inventory H Conservation Area IG H L Gardens and Designed Landscapes AN D Blair Atholl (GDL) M Blair Castle GDL ! ! ! ! ! ! ! A Conservation Area ! ! ! ! ! ! ! I ! ! ! ! ! ! ! N ! ! ! ! ! ! ! National Scenic Area (NSA) L ! ! ! ! ! ! ! IN E R PIITAGOWAN Cairngorms National Park AI LW Forest Park AY DDDBen Vrackie Special Landscape Area DDD(SLA) BLAIR Rannoch - Nevis - Mamores - Alder Wild ATHOLL Land Area Cairngorms Wild Land Area Cairngorms Wild Land Area KILLIECRANKIE Ben Vrackie SLA Loch Tummel NSA Tay Forest Park Tay Forest Park 0 NOV 2017 ES Publication JCr KP/MK M L A JG Rev. Rev. Date Purpose of revision Orig/Dwn Checkd Rev'd Apprv'd Moulin Conservation Area 95 Bothwell Street, Glasgow, G2 7HX, UK. Tel: +44(0)141 243 8000 www.jacobs.com Client Project Pitlochry Conservation Area PIITLOCHRY Drawing title Environmental Statement Landscape Designations A9 and other associated Designations Sheet 1 of 2 Drawing Status FINAL Scale 1:60,000 @ A3 DO NOT SCALE P E Jacobs No. B2140005 R T BIM No. H Drawing number Rev Figure 13.1a 0 This drawing is not to be used in whole or part other than for the intended 0 1.25 2.5 5 purpose and project as defined on this drawing. Refer to the contract for full © Crown copyright and database right 2017. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100046668.
    [Show full text]
  • Ballinloan Cottage Glenlyon, Perthshire Ph15 2Nn
    BALLINLOAN COTTAGE GLENLYON, PERTHSHIRE PH15 2NN BALLINLOAN COTTAGE, GLENLYON, PERTHSHIRE PH15 2NN A charming country cottage nestled within Glenlyon Kenmore 15 miles ■ Aberfeldy 18 miles ■ Perth 49 miles Edinburgh 88 miles About 1.32 acres (0.53 hectare) ■ 2 Double bedrooms, 1 reception room ■ Peaceful, rural location ■ Impressive views of the surrounding countryside ■ Expansive woodland area Perth 01738 451111 [email protected] SITUATION Ballinloan Cottage sits at the foot of Craeg Ard within the picturesque and historic Glenlyon, which sits in a National Scenic Area and was once described as Sir Walter Scott as the loveliest Glen in Scotland. This part of Highland Perthshire has a lot to offer with numerous opportunities for walking and cycling. The nearby Tay Forest park has an extensive path network and nearby Loch Tay is popular with water sports enthusiasts. The area offers complete escapism with a bountiful array of wildlife. Locally there is a popular tearoom/ shop and a primary school at Bridge of Balgie which is approximately 1mile away. The village of Kenmore sits 15 miles to the east and offers a local shop, post office, restaurant and hotel. Aberfeldy is the closest town and offers a unique charm with a selection of restaurants, coffee shops, independent retailers, banks, supermarkets, nurseries, primary and secondary schooling at the well regarded Breadalbane Academy, doctors and dentists and veterinary practices. Aberfeldy is home to the Birks cinema showing a mix of new releases and classics together with a popular café and restaurant. Perth is the closest City where a variety of shopping facilities are available from retail parks to well-known high street shops, major supermarkets and variety of independent shops.
    [Show full text]
  • RURAL PERTH and KINROSS LEADER LOCAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (2014-2020) Draft
    6 PERTH AND KINROSS COUNCIL Enterprise & Infrastructure Committee 4 June 2014 RURAL PERTH & KINROSS LEADER DRAFT LOCAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Report by Executive Director (Environment) The purpose of this report is to ask the Committee to note the draft Rural Perth & Kinross Local Development Strategy. It also seeks approval for the Council to be the Lead Partner organisation. The report also outlines that the final strategy and business plan will be submitted to the Scottish Government by 30 September 2014. 1. BACKGROUND/MAIN ISSUES 1.1 European funding programmes run on 7 year programming cycles, the next of which will cover the period from 2014-20. Draft Scottish programmes have been developed within the framework of Regulations on the Structural Funds - European Regional Development Fund and European Social Fund and European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development. 1.2 The Scottish Government has recently consulted on the new Scottish Rural Development Programme which would include support to LEADER programmes. LEADER (Liaison Entre Acteurs de Development de l’Economie Rurale - Links between development agents in the rural economy) is a bottom-up partnership based approach to rural development. It will be delivered in Scotland by Local Action Groups implementing Local Development Strategies for their area. 1.3 Since February 2013, a series of reports have been submitted to the CPP Executive Officer Group highlighting the Community Led Local Development approach and the options for its implementation in Perth and Kinross, particularly to support the future LEADER Programme. In that context, the Group agreed that the creation of a rural Perth & Kinross LEADER Local Action Group (LAG) with a Local Development Strategy for Rural Perth & Kinross would be the best option.
    [Show full text]
  • A9 Dualling Luncarty to Pass of Birnam Project Project Update JANUARY 2019 Overnight Closures of the A9
    A9 Dualling Luncarty to Pass of Birnam project Project update JANUARY 2019 Overnight closures of the A9 Four overnight closures of the A9 Safety north of Perth, between Luncarty Temporary lines barrier junction and the A923 Dunkeld Works junction, north and southbound, are area planned from 8:30pm to 6am on the following nights: Lane Lane Lane line line line • Friday 22 February 2019 Verge Verge • Saturday 23 February 2019 3.25m 3.25m • Sunday 24 February 2019 • Monday 25 February 2019 A9 Luncarty to Birnam These closures are required to Narrow lanes will be used for the duration of the project install a temporary safety barrier at various points along the 9.5km route to create a safety zone between the Closure dates Preparatory works live traffic and construction workers. In advance of the four overnight Once installed, Balfour Beatty will ■ 22, 23, 24, 25 closures, traffic management will be begin the main construction works February 2019 required overnight to install narrow to dual the carriageway between lanes and safety cameras to enforce a Luncarty and Pass of Birnam as part 8.30pm to 6am reduced speed limit of 40mph through of the Scottish Government’s Contingency dates: the works area. Once installed, these restrictions will remain in place until £3 billion A9 Dualling Programme. 1, 2, 3, 4 March 2019 completion of the project in Spring This traffic management has been 8.30pm to 6am scheduled overnight to minimise 2021. This traffic management will commence as follows: the impact to road users following consultation with key stakeholders Council.
    [Show full text]
  • Queen's View Visitor Centre, Perthshire a Brush with History
    Sector: Leisure Robertson business: Robertson Central Client: Forestry Commission Scotland Value: £877k Date of completion: May 2014 Location: Pitlochry Queen's View Visitor Centre, Perthshire A brush with history As part of our contract to renew the Forestry Commission's David Marshall Lodge near Aberfoyle, we also undertook the extensive refurbishment of the Queen's View Visitor Centre in Tay Forest Park. Beautifully located overlooking Loch Tummel in the heart of Highland Perthshire, Queen's View is the area's most popular visitor attraction. However, the existing buildings needed to be brought up to modern standards, to be able to welcome the Centre's large number of visitors. The project was carried out under the Scape National Major Works framework. "I wanted to write to you to pass on my sincere thanks to Andy Gillie A brush with history for the significant part that he has Located on the site of an old farmstead, visible on an 1860 map of the area, the buildings played in redeveloping a couple of housing the Visitor Centre used to serve as an old forester's cottage and a barn for his tired, old buildings into buildings horses. The structures had been altered many times during the course of their history, which that not only look fantastic but are presented a variety of challenges to the refurbishment and repair work. fit for the 21st century. Throughout The project was continuously monitored by archaeological consultant Rebecca Shaw, and the this project I have always found excavations uncovered some interesting artefacts, such as a perfectly preserved 19th century ink pot along with numerous pieces of pottery and ceramics.
    [Show full text]
  • Sustainable Tourism 2017
    Sustainability and Quality 1. Energy 1.1 Low energy lighting Low energy lighting is used throughout the building where possible within the limitations of the wiring capabilities of a Category B listed building. A programme of replacement is in place to replace older bulbs with new low energy bulbs when they fail. A comprehensive audit of all light bulb requirements throughout the house has been undertaken and low energy equivalents have been used where possible. 1.2 Heating controls Thermostat levels and radiator settings for public areas are regularly reviewed and adjusted according to ambient outside temperatures and predicted weather forecasts All guest bedrooms and bathrooms have individually thermostatically controlled heating Natural open fires using wood sourced on the property are used in the main guest reception rooms which mitigates the need for the main central heating system. 1.3 Draught Proofing and Glazing As a Category B listed Building we are unable to have double glazed windows anywhere in the house. In order to mitigate heat loss and draught proof within these limitations, all bedrooms, and public rooms have substantial full length hand-made curtains which have been interlined with the heaviest grade of felt interlining fabric (known as ‘bump’ fabric). In addition, bedrooms have blackout roller blinds to provide a further layer of draught proofing. Hallways and public areas also have draught proofing window strips or old style draught excluders along window ledges. In exceptionally cold weather, we have a number of secondary glazed panels that are able to be fitted on a temporary basis. 1.4 Switch off We are vigilant about switching off lights in any areas which are unused.
    [Show full text]
  • Forest District Strategic Plan 2009-2013
    Strategic Plan Tay Forest District Strategic Plan 2009-2013 Click here to begin Strategic plan 2009-2013 Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 3 About Tay Forest District ............................................................................................................................. 6 Section one: strategic context ..................................................................................................... 11 Context ............................................................................................................................................................12 Strategic priorities for Tay Forest District .............................................................................................13 Forest policy context...................................................................................................................................15 Section two: how Tay Forest District contributes to the delivery of the Scottish Forestry Strategy ...................................................................................16 Key theme one: climate change ..............................................................................................................18 Key theme two: timber ..............................................................................................................................23 Key theme three: business development .............................................................................................28
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Water Wynd Dunkeld
    1 WATER WYND DUNKELD 1 WATER WYND DUNKELD Pitlochry 13 miles Perth 15 miles Aberfeldy 18 miles Edinburgh 58 miles A rare example of a fine cottage within historic Dunkeld. • Hall. Cupboard. Sitting Room with dining area. Kitchen. Two Bedrooms. Bathroom. Garden. • Beautiful cottage with views onto Dunkeld Cathedral • Naturally bright accommodation • Garden and rear yard with views onto River Tay • Charming features • Located in a desirable and historic town CKD Galbraith Lynedoch House Barossa Place Perth PH1 5EP Tel: 01738 451111 Fax: 01738 451900 Email: [email protected] Website: www.ckdgalbraith.co.uk GENERAL newly refurbished Zebra Bar and Restaurant and 1 Water Wynd is located in the pretty town of Dunkeld in children’s outdoor play area can be found. Situated Highland Perthshire and offers a rare opportunity to live to the north of Pitlochry is the famous House of Bruar, in a beautiful area. Dunkeld is one of the best preserved known as ‘Harrods of the North’ which offers some of and historic villages in Scotland and is located in the Scotland’s finest produce, clothing, rural artwork, food heart of Perthshire’s Big Tree Country. It is a popular and a restaurant. The Tay Forest Park is within easy location with many amenities including a selection of reach and includes some of Scotland’s tallest trees and coffee shops, restaurants, gift and retail shops with best view points of lochs and mountains. a lively arts, music scene and galleries. There is a convenience supermarket, post office, doctors surgery Pitlochry, 13 miles north, is a gold medal winner from and primary school.
    [Show full text]
  • Big Tree Country
    Big Tree Country www.perthshire.co.uk What to see and do in the great outdoors Welcome to Perthshire Here in the green heart of Scotland is a magnificent, varied landscape boasting some of Europe’s most remarkable trees and woodlands. Our spectacular countryside changes colour from season to season reaching an autumnal woodland crescendo with blazing red and gold leaves still visible in mid-November. Many of our local woods, forests and and don’t forget our network of eight country gardens are open to the public Tourist Information Centres (TICs), and, as an added bonus, most are free offering friendly advice and a wide of charge! Perthshire has a fascinating range of books and maps (see pg 31). range of things to do and see for all the family and you'll find the options for Contents walking, cycling and watching wildlife are plentiful. Cycle or walk along forest 3. Big Tree Country tracks, gorges and riverside trails, 5. The Call of the Wild keeping your eyes and ears peeled for a glimpse of remarkable birds and 8. Walking & Cycling Highlights animals. 9. Highland Perthshire Deer, pine marten and red squirrels are 19. Perth & East Perthshire all inhabitants of our forests. You may 23. South & West Perthshire even spot a rare osprey nesting among the top branches of our tallest 28. Seasons to Celebrate evergreens. Alternatively, why not find a 29. Access & Safety quiet spot and relax with a drawing pad and pencil or a pair of binoculars and 31. Further Information Sources soak up the fresh air and scenery….
    [Show full text]
  • West Carnliath Strathtay, PERTHSHIRE OFFICES ACROSS SCOTLAND West Carnliath Strathtay, PERTHSHIRE PH9 0PG
    WEST CARNLIATH STRATHTAY, PERTHSHIRE OFFICES ACROSS SCOTLAND WEST CARNLIATH STRATHTAY, PERTHSHIRE PH9 0PG Aberfeldy 5 miles Perth 26 miles Edinburgh 70 miles A modern south facing house within a highly desirable and scenic area Ground Floor: Vestibule. Hall. Sitting Room. Kitchen. Snug/Dining Room. Conservatory. Utility. Rear Vestibule. WC. First Floor: Four Bedrooms. En-Suite Shower Room. Bathroom with Sauna. Airing Cupboard. • Modern house, sympathetically designed • Contemporary living space with generous accommodation • Private gardens • Ideal location for Strathtay and Tay Forest Park • Spectacular scenery on the edge of a beautiful historic village CKD Galbraith Lynedoch House Barossa Place Perth PH1 5EP 01738 451111 [email protected] LOCATION West Carnliath sits in a delightful position near the picturesque and highly desirable village of Strathtay, the village is situated in the heart of Highland Perthshire on the north bank of the river Tay, an area of outstanding natural beauty. Strathtay is a glory of colour in the Spring, with bluebell covered woods and daffodil displays. The manicured gardens and many fine examples of elegant Victorian architecture give a unique atmosphere. The Strathtay golf course established in 1909 and designed by Captain Steuart of the Ballechin Estate is a popular wooded parkland course. Loch Tay and the Tay Forest Park are within easy reach and the area has a rich and diverse range of wildlife (notably the red squirrel), cultural and social events. Strathtay is on the national cycle network and for the walking enthusiast Strathtay is part of the Rob Roy Way and there is a track leading to Pitlochry. There are fishing pools on the river Tay at Pincastle, Grandtully and Findynate and there is easy access to the Grandtully rapids.
    [Show full text]
  • Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing Environmental Baseline Report
    A9 Dualling Programme: Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing Environmental Baseline Report June 2017 A9 Dualling Programme: Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing Environmental Baseline Report Page intentionally blank A9 Dualling Programme: Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing Environmental Baseline Report Contents Glossary ................................................................................................................................................................ iii Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................................... vii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Environmental Baseline Conditions ........................................................................................................ 3 2.1 Community and Private Assets ................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Geology and Soils ....................................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Road Drainage and Water Environment ..................................................................................................
    [Show full text]