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Title of the Presentation ConnectEast Group EastLink Traffic Projections August 2009 DRAFT 1 Disclaimer ConnectEast Management Limited (ACN 071 292 647) (CEML) (AFSL 254 959) is the responsible entity for ConnectEast Investment Trust (ARSN 110 713 481) and ConnectEast Holding Trust (ARSN 110 713 614) (ConnectEast Group). ConnectEast Group’s stapled units are traded on ASX. This presentation has been prepared by ConnectEast Group based on traffic projections prepared by IMIS Integrated Management Information Systems Pty Ltd (IMIS) and other information available. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information, opinions and conclusions contained in this presentation. To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of CEML, ConnectEast Group, IMIS and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents, nor any other person accepts any liability for any loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with it, including without limitation, any liability arising from fault or negligence on the part of CEML, ConnectEast Group, IMIS, or their respective directors, officers, employees or agents. General securities warning Information, including forecast financial information, in this presentation should not be considered as an offer or invitation for subscription or purchase of or a recommendation with respect to holding, purchasing or selling securities or other instruments in ConnectEast Group. This presentation does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before making any decision about an investment in ConnectEast Group, a person should consider whether such an investment is appropriate to their particular objectives, financial situation and needs and consult an investment adviser if necessary. These materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States, and the Securities referred to in these materials have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered for sale or sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from registration. Future Performance This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements”. The words “anticipate”, “ believe”, “expect”, “project”, “forecast”, “estimate”, “likely”, “intend”, “should”, “could”, “may”, “target”, “plan” and other similar expressions are intended to indentify forward-looking statements. Indications of, and guidance on, future earnings and financial position and performance are also forward-looking statements. Due care and attention have been used in the preparation of forecast information. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of CEML, the ConnectEast Group and IMIS that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. 2 Summary In preparing its financial statements, ConnectEast is required to consider the accounting carrying value of the EastLink Concession as at 30 June 2009. Independent traffic projections for EastLink have been prepared by IMIS and used for this purpose. Key points of IMIS traffic projections are: | EastLink traffic growth at average 14.6% per annum from 2009 to 2011, based on the following assumptions: ― EastLink traffic growth not yet at steady-state levels - traffic ramp-up to continue to mid-2011 ― Recovery from current economic conditions through 2010 and into 2011 ― Ongoing growth in corridor travel demand | Long-term EastLink traffic growth forecast at average 3.7% per annum from 2011 to 2021 and average 2.3% per annum thereafter based on the following assumptions: ― Ongoing population and employment growth consistent with government projections ― Ongoing growth in corridor travel demand ― EastLink share of corridor traffic increasing as competing routes become congested in peak and off-peak periods ― Real wealth growth progressively reducing the cost of tolls relative to earnings | Analysis to identify key sources of differences from 2004 projections | IMIS summary report attached Independent audit of traffic projections 3 Methodology and audit IMIS1 methodology: 2004 Traffic Projections | Analysis of observed EastLink traffic data and corridor traffic data collected since 2005 Transport network Observed traffic changes | Update of assumptions used in the 2004 projections volumes completed Observed | Calibration of 2009 traffic projections to observed Population & annualisation factors traffic conditions employment changes Driver route Changes in trip choice parameter Independent auditor’s conclusion: patterns (value of time) Although expressing some concerns regarding IMIS’s methodology and assumptions, the auditor concludes 2009 Traffic Projections that IMIS’s results fall within the upper range of expected values. Changes in trip patterns Population and employment forecasts Driver route choice parameters Committed transport network changes Future annualisation factors Future Year Traffic 1. IMIS Integrated Management Information Systems Pty Ltd is a member of Projections the Aurecon group of companies and provides specialist applied statistical 2011, 2021, 2031 research across several market sectors, including transport modelling. IMIS has extensive experience in forecasting and monitoring travel demand and revenues for tollways across several Australian cities and has a detailed knowledge of the land-use, travel demands and traffic conditions in the EastLink corridor and in Melbourne. 4 EastLink traffic and revenue projections IMIS have prepared the following projections: July 2009 2011 Projections 2021 Projections 2031 Projections Actual ADT AADT Average Daily Average AADT Average Daily Average AADT Average Daily Average ('000) ('000) Revenue ('000) Trip Toll ('000) Revenue ('000) Trip Toll ('000) Revenue ('000) Trip Toll Car & MC 136.7 186.1 $519.4 $2.79 263.8 $772.2 $2.93 324.4 $926.5 $2.86 LCV 11.7 12.5 $52.2 $4.17 20.8 $89.9 $4.31 29.3 $123.0 $4.20 HCV 10.5 10.2 $70.5 $6.93 16.8 $126.1 $7.50 24.0 $177.9 $7.42 Total 158.9 208.8 $642.0 $3.07 301.4 $988.2 $3.28 377.7 $1,227.4 $3.25 | Forecast EastLink average annual traffic growth: ― 2009 to 2011: 14.6% per annum ― 2011 to 2021: 3.7% per annum ― From 2021: 2.3% per annum Notes: | Car class includes Motorcycles. | July 2009 actual data is Average Daily Trips for July 2009. | Annual Average Daily Trip (AADT) projections represent the average daily traffic volumes for that calendar year. Average Daily Revenue and Average Trip Toll are calculated on the same basis. | Traffic ramp-up is forecast by IMIS to be complete by mid-2011. 2011 Projections are stated after applying the ramp-up profile. | All revenue amounts are stated in real terms as at 1 July 2009 and after all toll discounts, and include goods and services tax (GST). 5 EastLink traffic growth profile to 2011 | IMIS projection of traffic growth from 2009 to 2011 based on: ― EastLink traffic growth not yet at steady-state levels - traffic ramp-up1 to continue to mid-2011 ― Recovery from current economic conditions through 2010 and into 2011 ― Ongoing growth in corridor travel demand | IMIS projection of the EastLink ramp-up profile is illustrated in the chart below: 100% 1. Ramp-up: When any new road 90% opens, there is an initial period commonly known as the “ramp-up 80% period” during which traffic levels are typically less than projected 70% total demand as drivers become 60% accustomed to the new road and learn which trips it can service. 50% Ramp-up is considered to be 40% complete when the annual growth rate reduces to the ‘steady-state’ 30% growth rate. 20% Percent (%) of (%) steadyPercent state volume 10% 0% Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Sep-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Dec-10 Month Observed Projected 6 EastLink traffic by section | Springvale Road to IMIS projections show traffic growth across all EastLink toll sections: Toll Section 1 Ringwood Bypass ― Toll sections 1 to 12 have three traffic lanes each way Maroondah Highway Toll Section 2 ― Toll section 13 has two traffic lanes each way to Canterbury Road Canterbury Road to ― Traffic volumes can be accommodated within current available lane Toll Section 3 capacity Boronia Road Boronia Road to Toll Section 4 Burwood Highway | IMIS projections of the EastLink traffic profile by toll section are illustrated Burwood Highway to Toll Section 5 in the chart below: High Street Road July 2009 Actual 2021 Projection High Street Road to Toll Section 6 2011 Projection 2031 Projection Ferntree Gully Road 160 Ferntree Gully Road Toll Section 7 to Wellington Road 140 Wellington Road to Toll Section 8 Police Road Monash Freeway to 120 Toll Section 9 Princes Highway Princes Highway to 100 Toll Section 10 Cheltenham Road Dandenong Bypass to Toll Section 11 80 Greens Road AADT '000 AADT Greens Road to Toll Section 12 60 Thompson Road Thompson Road to Toll Section 13 40 Frankston Freeway 20 Three traffic lanes each way Two 0 lanes Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8 Section 9 Section 10 Section 11 Section 12 Section 13 7 EastLink long-term growth assumptions | IMIS projections based on forecast population and employment growth in corridor consistent with forward government projections1: ― Population growth 1.3% p.a. from 2009 to 2031 – additional 500,000 residents in corridor by 2031 (34% of population growth in Melbourne) ― Employment growth of 1.3% p.a. from 2009 to 2031 – additional 207,000 jobs in corridor by 2031 (35% of all jobs growth in Melbourne) | IMIS projections of commercial vehicle growth forecast based on government freight models: ― Annual growth forecast of 5.2% from 2011 to 2021 ― Annual growth forecast of 3.6% from 2021 to 2031 1.
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