UNHCR Centre for Documentation and Research WRITENET Paper No. 18/1999 INDONESIA UPDATE: TRENDS TOWARD CONSOLIDATION, THREATS OF DISINTEGRATION (JANUARY-DECEMBER 1999) By John T. Sidel December 1999 WriteNet is a Network of Researchers and Writers on Human Rights, Forced Migration, Ethnic and Political Conflict WriteNet is a Subsidiary of Practical Management (UK) E-mail:
[email protected] THIS PAPER WAS PREPARED MAINLY ON THE BASIS OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION, ANALYSIS AND COMMENT. ALL SOURCES ARE CITED. THE PAPER IS NOT, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE, EITHER EXHAUSTIVE WITH REGARD TO CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY SURVEYED, OR CONCLUSIVE AS TO THE MERITS OF ANY PARTICULAR CLAIM TO REFUGEE STATUS OR ASYLUM. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THE PAPER ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THOSE OF WRITENET OR UNHCR. ISSN TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................1 1.1 GENERAL OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................1 1.2 THE THREAT OF “DISORDER”: FROM RIOTS TO REBELLION AND RELIGIOUS CONFLICT3 2. ACEH: THE NEXT DOMINO? ....................................................................................4 2.1 BACKGROUND TO REBELLION ......................................................................................5 2.2 FROM REFORMASI TO REBELLION ................................................................................7 3. AMBON: THINGS FALL APART?............................................................................11