The Military and Democracy in Indonesia: Challenges, Politics, and Power

THE MILITARY AND DEMOCRACY IN INDONESIA Challenges, Politics, and Power Angel Rabasa John Haseman Supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation R National Security Research Division The research described in this report was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation. The research was conducted through the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDPC) of RAND’s National Security Research Division (NSRD). Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rabasa, Angel. The military and democracy in Indonesia : challenges, politics, and power / Angel Rabasa, John Haseman. p. cm. “MR-1599-SRF.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3219-4 (alk. paper) 1. Civil-military relations—Indonesia. 2. Indonesia—Politics and government— 20th century. 3. Indonesia—Armed Forces—Reorganization. 4. Indonesia—Armed Forces—Political activity. 5. United States—Military relations—Indonesia. 6. Indonesia—Military relations—United States. I. Haseman, John B. II.Title. JQ766.C58 R33 2002 322'.5'09598—dc21 2002011612 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country and the largest one with a Muslim majority, is undergoing a systemic political tran- sition that could lead to a variety of outcomes, including democratic consolidation, a return to authoritarianism, the rise of radical Islam, or even disintegration. The Indonesian military is one of the few institutions that cuts across the divides of Indonesian society and will play a critical role in determining the country’s future evolution. But the military, like other Indonesian institutions, is itself undergoing profound change. Which path Indonesia and its armed forces will follow remains unclear. This study examines the role of the military in Indonesian politics and society since the fall of Indonesian president Suharto in 1998. The key issues under analysis are: (1) What role will the military play in influencing Indonesia’s political evolution—Will it be a construc- tive force supporting democratic processes or will it opt for authoritarian solutions? (2) What are realistic goals for further progress on military reform? (3) How can the United States engage the Indo- nesian military most effectively to help bring about positive change? The research issues of this study are central to the strategic interests of the United States in Asia and are directly related to the Smith Richardson Foundation’s view that the United States continues to face the challenge of enhancing international order and advancing U.S. interests and values abroad. This report should be of value to the national security community and interested members of the general public, especially those with an interest in U.S. relations with Indonesia and U.S. policy toward the Asia-Pacific region. Comments iii iv The Military and Democracy in Indonesia: Challenges, Politics, and Power are welcome and may be sent to either the authors or to Ambassador (retired) James Dobbins, director of RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, at RAND, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050. This research was funded by a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of RAND’s National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the U.S. intelligence community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. CONTENTS Preface ........................................ iii Figures ........................................ ix Tables ......................................... xi Summary ..................................... xiii Acknowledgments ............................... xxi Acronyms and Definitions ........................ xxiii Chapter One INTRODUCTION ..............................1 Part I—THE TNI Chapter Two ORIGINS AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARMED FORCES ..............................7 The Founding of the Armed Forces .................7 Military Culture and Doctrine .....................9 Military Organization and Deployment .............12 Army Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad) ........14 Army Special Forces Command (Kopassus) ........16 Territorial Forces ............................18 Naval and Air Forces .........................20 Military Operations ............................22 v vi The Military and Democracy in Indonesia: Challenges, Politics, and Power Chapter Three DOCTRINAL CHANGE: FROM “TOTAL PEOPLE’S DEFENSE AND SECURITY” TO THE “NEW PARADIGM” .................................25 Chapter Four CHANGES IN THE INTELLIGENCE FUNCTION .......31 Chapter Five THE CHANGING POLITICAL ROLE OF THE MILITARY ...................................35 The Military Under Suharto ......................35 The Habibie interregnum and the East Timor Crisis ....38 Wahid’s Tenuous Relationship with the TNI ..........41 The Megawati Consensus .......................43 Civil-Military Relations in the New Democratic Order ..47 The Military and Parliament ....................47 “Civilianization” of the Public Administration .......49 No More “Practical Politics” ....................49 Civilian Ministers of Defense ...................50 Chapter Six INSIDE THE TNI: CAREER PATTERNS, FACTIONALISM, AND MILITARY COHESION .....................53 Officer Recruitment ...........................53 Army Career Patterns ..........................55 Military Schools ..............................57 The Promotions System ........................59 Religions of the Military ........................61 Ethnicity of the Military .........................63 Reformers and Conservatives in the Officer Corps .....64 Solidarity of the Armed Forces: Unity or Factionalism? ..66 Chapter Seven THE MILITARY’S FUNDING AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS ..................................69 Army Business Interests ........................74 Navy Business Interests .........................75 Air Force Business Interests ......................76 Police Business Interests ........................76 Noninstitutional Business Activities ................76 The Debate over Military Self-Financing ............77 Contents vii PART II—SECURITY CHALLENGES Chapter Eight THE CHALLENGE OF TERRORISM AND RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM .................................81 International Terrorist Networks in Indonesia ........82 Domestic Extremists ...........................84 Moderates and Radicals ........................87 Riding a Tiger: The Indonesian Government’s Response to Radical Islam ...........................88 Chapter Nine COMMUNAL CONFLICT IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL INDONESIA .................................91 The Conflict in the Moluccas .....................91 The Conflict in Poso ...........................94 The Search for Peace in Poso and the Moluccas .......96 Chapter Ten SEPARATIST MOVEMENTS IN ACEH AND PAPUA .....99 The War in Aceh ..............................99 The GAM Insurgency ........................ 100 Jakarta’s Response .......................... 102 Separatism in Papua .......................... 106 PART III—THE FUTURE OF U.S.–INDONESIAN MILITARY RELATIONS Chapter Eleven THE ROCKY COURSE OF U.S.–INDONESIAN MILITARY RELATIONS ............................... 113 U.S.–Indonesian Military Relations in the Era of Terrorism .............................. 116 Measuring the Effects of Engagement ............. 118 Influence ................................. 119 Access ................................... 120 Professionalization ......................... 120 Chapter Twelve STRATEGIC SCENARIOS FOR INDONESIA AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS.............................. 121 Scenario 1: Democratic Consolidation ............. 122 Policy Implications for Counterterrorism ......... 122 viii The Military and Democracy in Indonesia: Challenges, Politics, and Power Policy Implications for Engagement ............. 123 Scenario 2: Muddling Through .................. 123 Policy Implications for Counterterrorism ......... 124 Policy Implications for Engagement ............. 124 Scenario 3: Return to Authoritarian Rule ........... 125 Policy Implications for Counterterrorism ......... 126 Policy Implications for Engagement ............. 126 Scenario 4: Radical Islamic Influence or Control ...... 127 Policy Implications for Counterterrorism ......... 128 Policy Implications for Engagement ............. 128 Scenario 5: Radical Decentralization .............. 128 General Policy Implications ................... 129 Scenario 6: Disintegration ...................... 129 General Policy Implications ................... 130 Chapter Thirteen GOALS FOR INDONESIAN MILITARY REFORM AND

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