Sicurezza, Terrorismo E Società
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ISSN 2421-4442 La Rivista semestrale Sicurezza, Terrorismo e Società intende la Sicurezza come una condizione che risulta dallo stabilizzarsi e dal mantenersi di misure proattive capaci 2 di promuovere il benessere e la qualità della vita dei cittadini e la vitalità democratica delle istituzioni; affronta il fenomeno del Terrorismo come un processo complesso, di lungo periodo, che affonda le sue radici nelle dimensioni culturale, religiosa, politica ed economica che caratterizzano i sistemi sociali; propone alla Società – quella degli studiosi e degli operatori e quella ampia di cittadini e istituzioni – strumenti di com- prensione, analisi e scenari di tali fenomeni e indirizzi di gestione delle crisi. Sicurezza, Terrorismo e Società si avvale dei contributi di studiosi, policy maker, analisti, operatori della sicurezza e dei media interessati all’ambito della sicurezza, del terrorismo e del crisis management. Essa si rivolge a tutti coloro che operano in tali settori, volendo rappresentare un momento di confronto partecipativo e aperto al dibattito. La rivista ospita contributi in più lingue, preferendo l’italiano e l’inglese, per ciascuno dei quali è pubblicato un Executive Summary in entrambe le lingue. La redazione solle- cita particolarmente contributi interdisciplinari, commenti, analisi e ricerche attenti alle principali tendenze provenienti dal mondo delle pratiche. Sicurezza, Terrorismo e Società è un semestrale che pubblica 2 numeri all’anno. Oltre ai due numeri programmati possono essere previsti e pubblicati numeri speciali. 2 EDUCatt - Ente per il Diritto allo Studio Universitario dell’Università Cattolica 2015 Largo Gemelli 1, 20123 Milano - tel. 02.72342235 - fax 02.80.53.215 e-mail: [email protected] (produzione) - [email protected] (distribuzione) redazione: [email protected] web: www.sicurezzaterrorismosocieta.it ISBN: 978-88-6780-958-5 Sicurezza, Terrorismo e Società e Terrorismo Sicurezza, Euro 20,00 Euro SICUREZZA, TERRORISMO E SOCIETÀ IINTERNATIONALNTERNATIONAL JJOURNALOURNAL IItaliantalian TTeameam fforor SSecurity,ecurity, TTerroristicerroristic IIssuesssues & MManaginganaging EEmergenciesmergencies 2 ISSUE 2/2015 Milano 2015 EEDUCATTDUCATT - UUNIVERSITÀNIVERSITÀ CCATTOLICAATTOLICA DELDEL SACROSACRO CUORECUORE SICUREZZA, TERRORISMO E SOCIETÀ IINTERNATIONALNTERNATIONAL JJOURNALOURNAL – IItaliantalian TTeameam fforor SSecurity,ecurity, TTerroristicerroristic IIssuesssues & MManaginganaging EEmergenciesmergencies ISSUE I – 2/2015 Direttore Responsabile: Matteo Vergani (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano e Global Terrorism Research Centre – Melbourne) Co-Direttore e Direttore Scientifico: Marco Lombardi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) Comitato Scientifico: Maria Alvanou (Lecturer at National Security School – Atene) Cristian Barna (“Mihai Viteazul” National Intelligence Academy– Bucharest, Romania) Claudio Bertolotti (senior strategic Analyst at CeMiSS, Military Centre for Strategic Studies – Roma) Valerio de Divitiis (Expert on Security, Dedicated to Human Security – DEDIHS) Chiara Fonio (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) Sajjan Gohel (London School of Economics – London) Rovshan Ibrahimov (Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy University – Baku, Azerbaijan) Daniel Köhler (German Institute on Radicalization and De-radicalization Studies – Berlin) Miroslav Mareš (Masaryk University – Brno, Czech Republic) Vittorio Emanuele Parsi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) Anita Perešin (University of Zagreb – Croatia) Giovanni Pisapia (Senior Security Manager, BEGOC – Baku – Azerbaijan) Iztok Prezelj (University of Ljubljana) Eman Ragab (Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) – Cairo) Riccardo Redaelli (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) Mark Sedgwick (University of Aarhus – Denmark) Arturo Varvelli (Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale – ISPI – Milano) Kamil Yilmaz (Independent Researcher – Turkish National Police) Munir Zamir (Fida Management&C7 – London) Sabina Zgaga (University of Maribor – Slovenia) Ivo Veenkamp (Hedayah – Abu Dhabi) Comitato Editoriale: Gabriele Barni (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) Alessandro Burato (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) Alessia Ceresa (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) Barbara Lucini (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) Davide Scotti (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Milano) © 2015 EDUCatt - Ente per il Diritto allo Studio Universitario dell’Università Cattolica Largo Gemelli 1, 20123 Milano - tel. 02.7234.22.35 - fax 02.80.53.215 e-mail: [email protected] (produzione); [email protected] (distribuzione) web: www.educatt.it/libri Associato all’AIE – Associazione Italiana Editori isbn: 978-88-6780-958-5 copertina: progetto grafico Studio Editoriale EDUCatt Table of contents Research articles Matteo Vergani, Ana-Maria Bliuc The evolution of the ISIS’ language: a quantitative analysis of the language of the first year of Dabiq magazine .......................................7 Claudio Bertolotti, Andrea Beccaro Suicide Attacks: Strategy, from the Afghan War to Syraq and Mediterranean region. A triple way to read the asymmetric threats .....21 Analyses and commentaries Laris Gaiser Intelligence economica: una proposta per l’Italia ....................................... 63 Giovanni Giacalone Islamic extremism from the Balkans emerges in Italy ................................. 87 Focus: Web Intelligence Marco Lombardi, Alessandro Burato, Marco Maiolino Dalla SOCMINT alla Digital HumInt. Ricomprendere l’uso dei Social nel ciclo di intelligence ............................ 95 Alessandro Burato SOCial Media INTelligence: un nuovo spazio per la raccolta di informazioni rilevanti.......................... 109 Mauro Pastorello How cyberspace is used by terrorist organization: possible threats to critical infrastructures? The most recent activities of cyber counterterrorism ................................ 117 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Focus: Grandi Eventi Giovanni Pisapia A Case Study Analysis of the Implementation of GIS Technology for Safety and Security Planning during Major Sport Events ....................................137 Executive Summary.................................................................................... 157 Sicurezza, Terrorismo e Società 2 (2015) Islamic extremism from the Balkans emerges in Italy Giovanni Giacalone Between 2014 and 2015 Islamic extremism from the Balkans started to emerge as a serious reality on Italian soil as several individuals from the other side of the Adriatic, residing in Italy, ended up under investigation for jihadist propaganda and recruitment, with strong ties in their home countries, which include Bosnia, Albania and Kosovo. Operations “Martese” and “Balkan Connection” exposed the presence of jihadist cells while Tuscany, Lombardy and the North-East of Italy turned out to be areas of interest for Islamists from the Balkans, with several Islamic centers involved in organizing visits of radical preachers. The connections among jihadist families is also an important element that characterizes both operation, as it can be notices by the Kobuzi-Baki-Sergio rela- tions in the “Martese” operation and the Elezi-Balliu in “Balkan Connection”. The “Balkanic network” began to attract the attention of the media in January 2014, when photos of Bosnian citizen Ismar Mesinovic’s dead body appeared on Facebook; it was soon discovered that the man had been fighting in an ISIS-linked jihadist group in Aleppo, Syria. A close friend of his, Mace- donian citizen Munifer Karamaleski, also travelled to Syria and his where- abouts are still unknown, even though some rumors say that he might have been killed in combat1. The two jihadists were both living in the north-east of Italy and investigators believe that they have been recruited by well-known Bosnian preacher and for- mer El-Mujahid unit member Bilal Bosnic whom, on various occasions, visited local Islamic centers in Pordenone, Cremona, Bergamo, Monteroni D’Arbia. The preacher was arrested by SIPA in early September 2014, together with fifteen other jihadists, with the accusation of recruiting Bosnian nationals for Syria and Iraq, funding and organizing their travel to the two countries. They were also suspected of participating in armed conflicts in Syria and Iraq where they fought alongside radical terrorist groups and organizations, including Isis. Sipa also seized a large quantity of weapons in various Bosnian cities during the raids. Bilal Bosnic could also have taken a role in the departure for Syria 1 http://corrierealpi.gelocal.it/belluno/cronaca/2015/04/01/news/jihad-maestro-sloveno-per- mesinovic-e-karamaleski-1.11156990 88 GIOVANNI GIACALONE of Macedonian citizen Elmir Avmedoski, who fled the town of Gorizia, in Fri- uli-Venezia Giulia, to join ISIS, possibly at the beginning of 20152. Shortly before his arrest, in August 2014, Bilal Bosnic had released an in- terview to Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera where he claimed to support Isis, to have met Ismar Mesinovic while on a tour in Italy and he also justified kidnappings of Western citizens as part of jihad. Bosnic’s claim was confirmed by a photo were he appeared together with Mesinovic and Karamaleski. Bosnic was not the only radical preacher active in Italy, as three other imam from the Balkans have been touring the country on several occasions, such as Idriz Bilibani, Shefqet Krasniqi, Mazllam Mazllami. Bilibani ap- peared in a 2012 video by the title