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THÈSE PRÉSENTÉE POUR OBTENIR LE GRADE DE DOCTEUR DE L’UNIVERSITÉ DE BORDEAUX ÉCOLE DOCTORALE SP2 Science politique Par Damien VALLOT LE RÉCIT CORALLIEN Production, diffusion et cadrage des récits d’action publique de la disparition des États atolliens entre Tuvalu, Kiribati et la Nouvele-Zélande Sous la direction de : Denis Constant MARTIN Soutenue le 15 décembre 2015 Membres du jury : M. SMITH, Andy Directeur de recherche FNSP IEP de Bordeaux Président Mme. DUVAT, Virginie Professeur des Universités Université de La Rochelle Rapporteur M. RADAELLI, Claudio Professeur des Universités University of Exeter Rapporteur Mme KASTORYANO, Riva Directrice de recherche CNRS Sciences Po Paris Examinatrice M. MARTIN, Denis Constant Directeur de recherche FNSP IEP de Bordeaux Directeur Titre : Le récit corallien : production, diffusion et cadrage des récits d’action publique de la disparition des États atolliens entre Tuvalu, Kiribati et la Nouvelle-Zélande. Résumé : Depuis la prise en compte croissante du changement climatique, de nombreux commentateurs ont commencé à raconter une histoire : celle des petits États insulaires du Pacifique sud, entièrement constitués d’atolls, qui risquent de disparaître en raison de l’élévation du niveau marin. Nous considérons que cette histoire est un « récit d’action publique » destiné à attirer l’attention et à convaincre les décideurs politiques d’agir pour empêcher la réalisation du problème ou lui trouver une solution. Ces « récits de la disparition » présentent deux particularités : ils ne sont associés à aucune politique publique déjà mise en œuvre et ils sont mobilisés par des acteurs variés issus des milieux politiques et de la société civile. À partir de la littérature sur l’analyse cognitive des politiques publiques et plus particulièrement l’analyse des récits de politiques publiques, cette thèse se propose d’étudier la production, la diffusion et les cadrages de ces récits de la disparition à l’aide de méthodes mixtes associant une démarche qualitative d’enquête avec la réalisation d’une analyse statistique textuelle. Mots clés : Récits de politiques publiques, analyse statistique textuelle, méthodes mixtes, changement climatique, Tuvalu, Kiribati, Nouvelle-Zélande Title : The sinking island states narrative: Production, dissemination and framing of public action narratives between Tuvalu, Kiribati and New Zealand Abstract : In the last 40 years, climate change has been increasingly taken into account. Various observers have started to tell a story: the story of small Pacific atoll island states that might disappear beneath the rising seas. The argument developed in this thesis is that this story is a "public action narative" which aims at drawing attention towards those states and at inciting policy makers to prevent the risk or to find a solution. Those "sinking island States narratives" display two particular characteristics: they are not linked to an existing policy and they are used by various actors from the political sphere and the civil society. Building on the policy narratives literature, this thesis aims at analysing the production, the dissemination and the framing of the sinking island states narratives. It is based on mixed methods and combines a qualitative framework and a statistical analysis of textual data. Keywords : Policy narratives, textual analysis, mixed methods, climate change, Tuvalu, Kiribati, New Zealand Unité de recherche Les Afriques dans le Monde, Unité mixte de recherche 5115 du CNRS, LAM - IEP de Bordeaux 11 allée Ausone, Domaine universitaire, 33607 Pessac Cedex, France REMERCIEMENTS « “Ohana” signifie famille, famille signifie que personne ne doit être abandonné… ni oublié. »1 « Une thèse, ça ne se fait jamais seul. » Ce conseil m’a été donné en 2010 alors que je commençais ce travail de recherche et pourtant ce n’est qu’au moment de le conclure que je réalise enfin la véracité de ces propos. J’aimerais donc remercier ici toutes les personnes qui auront participé, de près ou de loin, à la réalisation de cette thèse et m’auront permis d’aller au bout de cette aventure. Merci à mon directeur de thèse, Denis Constant Martin, d’avoir cru en ce projet et d’avoir cru en moi, à un moment où de nombreuses personnes ne voyaient l’intérêt ni de l’un, ni de l’autre. Merci à Fanny et à Gilliane pour leur soutien et pour m’avoir permis de rencontrer de merveilleuses personnes à Tuvalu. Merci à Taberranang de m’avoir pris sous son aile et de m’avoir présenté la culture de Kiribati. Merci à Kaio et à Teu pour leur gentillesse, leur patience, leur disponibilité et leur amitié lors de mon séjour à Tuvalu. Merci à Sarah, Linda, John, Ross, Helena et toutes les personnes que je pourrais avoir oubliées et qui m’ont aidé lors des mes voyages sur le terrain. Merci à Christel qui a toujours prêté une oreille attentive à mes travaux, m’a orienté et m’a guidé à distance lors de mes recherches. Merci à Viviane, sans qui je n’aurais pas été introduit au monde merveilleux de la statistique. Merci à mes camarades doctorant(e)s et jeunes docteur(e)s qui ont égayé mes journées de travail et m’ont soutenu dans les moments de doutes : Armelle « Mémelle », Adrien D. et Adrien M.V., Anaïs, Bartolomeo, Céline, Clélie, Clément, Emmanuel, Esméralda, Francesca, Hugo, Jean- Nicolas, Marième, Mathieu, Rozenn, Salim, Thibaud, Victor, Yves et Amandine. Un très grand merci à celles et ceux qui furent présent(e)s durant la rédaction, m’ont porté à bout de bras et m’ont permis de ne pas sombrer… Merci à Laure, Camille, Amandine, Chloé, Sébastien, Vincent et Coline. 1 Lilo & Stitch, réalisé par Dean DeBlois et Chris Sanders, 2002. VALLOT Damien ǀ Thèse pour le doctorat en Science politique | 2015 i Merci à mes amis qui ont toujours eu la gentillesse de ne pas me demander « à quoi ça sert ? » lorsque je leur parlais de ma thèse et m’ont apporté leur soutien : Tanguy et Lucile, Rémi et Anne, Olivier et Diana, Fabian, Florian et Léa, Marc, Florent et Marie, Stéphane et Marion, Chloé et Quentin, Matt et tous les copains et les copines de la musique. Merci à ma famille sans qui cette thèse n’aurait pas été possible. Merci à mes parents de m’avoir donné le goût de la curiosité et de m’avoir toujours soutenu dans mes choix. Merci à mon oncle de m’avoir fait confiance et m’avoir donné les moyens de réaliser cette thèse. Merci à ma sœur, à mon (beau)frère, à mon neveu et à ma nièce d’avoir toujours cru en moi. Enfin, mille mercis à celle que je ne pourrais sans doute jamais assez remercier. Celle qui a partagé mes doutes et mes craintes… mais aussi mes joies et mes victoires. Celle qui me rend heureux, peu importe ce qu’il peut m’arriver. Merci à toi, Laure. VALLOT Damien ǀ Thèse pour le doctorat en Science politique | 2015 ii SOMMAIRE Remerciements .........................................................................................................................i Sommaire .............................................................................................................................. iii Liste des sigles ...................................................................................................................... vii Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 1ère Partie : Enquêter sur les récits de la disparition des États atolliens : cadrages, théories et méthodes ................................................................................................................................. 5 Chapitre 1 : Présentation des cas d’études : introduction à la géographie, à l’histoire et à la politique des atolls de Kiribati et de Tuvalu...................................................... 7 1. Des îles de faible altitude : les atolls ............................................................................................. 8 2. Une diversité de situations juridiques ........................................................................................ 12 3. Sélection des terrains .................................................................................................................... 15 4. Présentation de Kiribati et de Tuvalu ........................................................................................ 19 Conclusions du premier chapitre .................................................................................................... 36 Chapitre 2 : Les récits de la submersion des États atolliens : cadre théorique et construction de l’objet de recherche ...................................................................... 37 1. Tuvalu et Kiribati au prisme de la recherche : état de l’art des études sur les États atolliens du Pacifique sud ................................................................................................................................ 38 2. Analyse cognitive de l’action publique autour du problème de la « disparition de Tuvalu et de Kiribati » ........................................................................................................................................ 51 Conclusions du second chapitre : rappel de la problématique et des questions de recherche .............................................................................................................................................................. 62 Chapitre 3 : Comment étudier les récits ? La question de la méthodologie mise en œuvre .....................................................................................................................
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