NIGERIA’S SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PERFORMANCE Past, Present, and Future

October 2019

MANAGERIALLY CANBACK CONSULTING RELEVANT Boston, Massachusetts ANALYTICALLY www.canback.com ROBUST +1-617-399-1300

A member of The Economist Group The Canback Global Income Distribution Database (C-GIDD) is used to quantify market size and demand drivers. C-GIDD is the only database of its kind

C-GIDD COVERAGE EXAMPLES OF C-GIDD USES • The world's only database with complete subnational data • Quantify number of households at specific income or series socioeconomic levels • GDP, household income, size of income brackets, size of • Compare consumer market sizes across geographies in a socioeconomic classes, population uniform way • 213 countries, 697 subdivisions and 997 cities • Merge with category or sales data to spot new or under- developed opportunities • Subnational: 2004-2029 National: 1970-2039

EXPLANATORY POWER OF C-GIDD Demand variance explained by income above C-GIDD MODULES category-specific thresholds Televison sets Oil consumption Cellphone subscribers C-GIDD C-GIDD Internet users income economic, distribution data demographic, C-GIDD Personal computers social and benchmark McDonald's restaurants Available as a psychographic products and Milk consumption commercial service data services data Cash machines (ATMs) at cgidd.com Insurance premiums Internal to Canback Internal to Canback Bank deposits Electricity consumption Airline passengers 0.00 0.50 1.00 R2

2 C-GIDD covers 213 countries, 697 subdivisions and 997 cities

3 C-GIDD sub-Saharan Africa edition covers 49 countries, 329 subdivisions, and 356 cities (>100,000 inhabitants)

4 Nigeria is the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa and relies heavily on oil exports. Inequality remains serious problem of the nation

STRUCTURE OF DOCUMENT KEY FINDINGS

• Nigeria is the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of population and GDP* Country overview • The economy relies on oil and gas which accounts for nearly 20% of GDP. Apart from petroleum, Nigeria’s other natural resources include natural gas, tin, iron ore, coal, limestone, niobium, lead, zinc and arable land

• Nigeria’s strong growth rates over the past decade have been dampened by the recession, which began in in 2016 • Nigeria has seen an increase in finance/public administration’s and oil/gas/mining/utilities’ share of supply-side GDP, at GDP and economic the expense of agriculture. The country is now less industry-oriented than most of its peers trends • On the demand side, Nigeria largely relies on household consumption while international trade contributes less to GDP. Minerals and organic chemicals take up almost 100% of Nigeria’s export • The primary risks are associated with poor infrastructure, security, and corruption

• Over the next ten years, the branded goods consuming class will grow by almost 3% in CAGR Socioeconomics and • The marginalized class will experience constant growth in the following decades and will comprise 73% of the population in 2029, causing by growing wealth inequality demographics • The youth population will dominate Nigeria’s population growth throughout the next ten years, although its share of the total will decline

• Lagos, Abuja, Idaban, and Port Harcourt are driving the Nigerian transformation City evolution • More than half of Nigeria’s population lives in urban areas and Nigeria is expected to have continued urban growth

* Constant purchasing power parity dollars Source: Canback analysis 5 Since entering a period of recession in 2016, Nigeria has recovered somewhat but is far from historical growth rates

• Federal presidential republic • President: Muhammadu Buhari Niger Chad • Capital: Abuja

• Population: 195.9 million Kano • Working-age population: 53.6% • Urban population: 51.0% Kaduna • Gini coefficient: 43.0 Benin • Currency: Nigerian Naira (NGN) Abuja • NGN 325.6 = USD 1.00 Nigeria

• Major ethnic groups: Hausa (27.4%), Igbo (14.1%), Yoruba (13.9%), Fulani (6.3%), Ibibio (2.2%), Tiv (2.2%), Ijaw (2%), Kanuri (1.7%) Ibadan • Religious affiliations: Muslim (50%), Christian (40%), Indigenous beliefs (10%) • Official language: English Lagos Benin • Other major languages: Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo (Ibo), Fulfulde Port Harcourt • GDP origins: Cameroon − Services (57%) − Industry (22%) Atlantic Ocean − Agriculture (21%)

• Nigeria's long-term economic performance will pick up HISTORIC DEVELOPMENT OF KEY INDICATORS moderately as the Federal Government further '09'-'19' implements public and social investment projects Indicator* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR • The growing importance of services has bolstered growth in the economy. GDP growth 6.9% 7.8% 4.9% 4.3% 5.4% 6.3% 2.7% -1.6% 0.8% 1.9% 2.1% 3.4% Household • With the largest population and economy in Sub- 30.4% -9.1% -2.7% -0.1% 19.7% 0.4% 1.0% -5.9% -0.5% 1.9% 2.1% 0.4% Saharan Africa, high market potential is constrained by income growth extremely low income levels for the majority of the Inflation 12.5% 13.7% 10.8% 12.2% 8.5% 8.0% 9.0% 15.7% 16.5% 12.1% 11.3% 11.8% population Pop growth 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7%

* GDP and income are measured in local 2010 constant currency Source: World Bank; IMF; CIA World Factbook; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 6 In sub-Saharan Africa and its comparison group, Nigeria is both the largest country in terms of population and GDP**

POPULATION GDP* GDP** 2019, millions 2019, B USD 2019,B PPP$

479.5 1,044.6 Nigeria 201.0

696.3

South Africa 58.1 433.0 164.4 170.3 Kenya 52.2 175.5 65.2 99.9 Angola 31.8 86.7 97.8 Ghana 30.1 76.5 Cote d’Ivoire 25.5 45.6 39.4 Cameroon 25.3 3,671.5

Other Africa 894.9 1,301.6

* Constant 2010 values at the 2010 exchange rate ** Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 7 Nigeria’s GDP supply structure has been stable in the past forty years, with service sector taking larger share comparing to its comparison countries

GDP SUPPLY BREAKDOWN OVER TIME GDP SUPPLY BREAKDOWN – COMPARISON COUNTRIES 1979-2019e, % of GDP 2019e, % of GDP

3% 9% Agriculture 18% 16% 12% 21% 21% 21% 24% 13% 6% 33% 13% Construction 10% 3% 4% 8% 5% 6% 8% 9% Manufacturing 7% 16% 4% 12% 14% 6% 10% 15% Oil/gas/mining and utilities 11% 19% 5% 25% 9% 9% 8% 12% 13% Transport, storage, and 3% 10% 17% 7% 5% communication 11% 10% 9% 21% 13% Wholesale, retail trade, 20% 9% 13% 21% restaurants, and hotels 16% 18% 44% Finance and 29% 30% 25% 25% 27% public administration 21% 18% 21%

1979 1999 2019e Ghana Cameroon Cote Kenya Angola South d’Ivoire Africa

Agriculture Industry Services

Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 8 In the last forty years, household consumption has grown to cover more of Nigeria’s demand-side GDP, while government spending has declined

GDP DEMAND BREAKDOWN OVER TIME GDP DEMAND BREAKDOWN – COMPARISON COUNTRIES 1979-2019e, % of GDP 2019e, % of GDP

Household 35% consumption 72% 58% 66% 54% 59% 78% 70% 79%

Government 9% 11% 35% 14% 21% consumption 7% 22% 11% 12% 18% 14% 30% 19% 23% 7% 19% 36% Investment 26% 34% 28% 30% 37% 15% 19% 14%

Exports 13% 14% -23% -25% -22% -28% -39% -32% Imports -9% -13% -14%

1979 1999 2019e Ghana Cameroon Cote d’Ivoire Kenya Angola South Africa

Nigeria’s household consumption experienced tremendous increase from 1978 to 1998, which significantly shrinks the percentages of government consumption and investment. Besides Kenya, Nigeria’s household consumption overpasses the average of its comparison countries (66.5%) in 2018, but other sectors appear significantly weaker.

Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 9 Nigeria’s export is almost fully dependent on oil while imports largely depend on minerals and vehicles. There is a big difference between its exports and import partners

NIGERIA EXPORTS BREAKDOWN MAIN TRADE PARTNERS 2019e 2019 Others Exports Imports 3% 100% = USD 63.4 B 100% = USD 63.4 B India 16.2% China 13.6%

Netherlands 10.9% Netherlands 8.0%

Spain 10.3% Korea, South 7.6%

France 8.1% Belgium 5.9% 97% South Africa 6.5% USA 5.2% Oil NIGERIA IMPORTS BREAKDOWN USA 6.2% India 3.7% 2019e Animal products Manufactured goods Indonesia 4.3% France 2.0% Metal products 3% Inorganic and 5% Sweden 3.9% Germany 1.9% man made chemicals 3% 7% Minerals and organic chemicals 37% United Kingdom 3.7% United Kingdom 1.8% Plant products 11% Brazil 3.3% Russia 1.7%

Other 26.6% Other 18.1%

34% Discrepancy 0.0% Discrepancy 30.6% Vehicles and machinery Source: UN Comtrade; Canback analysis * Discrepancy comes from difference between C-GIDD and UN Comtrade 10 Political instability, currency fluctuation and economic structure risk are among the serious challenges faced by Nigerian government

TOPIC RISK

Economic growth is well below potential, as Federally retained revenue is among the lowest in the world, at less than 4% Sovereign Risk is hydrocarbons output, from which the of GDP. If debt-servicing costs continue to rise sharply, the sovereign may be government gets most of its revenue faced with the choice of defaulting or ceasing to provide basic services

Ongoing distortions in the foreign- A legacy of currency and capital controls and the multiple-exchange-rate Currency Risk exchange market and political interference regime increase transfer and convertibility risks. If oil prices were to crash, will continue to weigh on currency risk restrictions could again come into force

The banks are highly exposed in particular to the energy sector, which leaves Non-performing loans increased during the the banking sector highly vulnerable to price fluctuations on the world crude Banking Sector Risk 2016-17 recession market

Presidential and legislative elections on High political, social and religious tensions drive serious outbreaks of violence: passed peacefully in the main, but the Frequent and extreme violence can often be seen in the north; poverty and Political Risk result underscored an endemic geopolitical underdevelopment are common themes, as is political interference for self- divide between the north and south of interested ends Nigeria

Oil still generates the bulk of fiscal revenue There has been some progress on economic reform over the past decade, but Economic Structure and almost all export earnings, reflecting significant deficiencies in the business environment remain, compounding Risk the failure of successive governments to underlying structural weaknesses in the public finances undertake structural reform

Source: World Bank; Transparency International; EIU; Canback analysis 11 Nigeria has seen rapid growth throughout the last twenty years. However, the future growth will be dampened by the recession, which began in 2016

GDP EVOLUTION 1979-2029, Constant 2010 B NGN Post-Independence Democracy Economic era Next decade 1979-1999 2000-2018

CAGR by era 2.1% 5.8% 2.9% 100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000 Forecast

0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032

1970 – 1999 2000 – 2018 2019 – After the 1967-70 civil war, an oil boom supported the Substantial economic reforms, in GDP growth rate is projected strengthening of the central government. Dependence on

Eras conjunction with rising oil prices and output, to be low throughout the next petroleum paired with falling oil output and prices led to declines in led GDP per capita to almost double decade GDP per capita during the late ’70s and early ’80s

Source: Bloomberg; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 12 In the next decade, Nigeria will experience lower growth rate than the average of both comparison countries and the whole world

EXPECTED ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE* PROJECTED GDP 2019-2029 2019-2029 CAGR Each dot represents one country 8.0% Uganda 7.7% Uganda 7.5% Ghana Nigeria Other countries Ethiopia 6.5% 7.0% Ethiopia Angola 6.5% Cote d’Ivoire Other countries Cote d’Ivoire 5.9% 6.0% 5.5% Kenya Kenya 5.7%

5.0% 9

4.5% Cameroon 4.8%

202 -

9 4.0% Regional average

3.5% Cameroon Ghana 4.8%

201 GDPgrowth 3.0% Global average 2.5% Nigeria Angola 3.2% 2.0% Nigeria 2.9% 1.5% Sudan 1.0% South Africa 1.8% 0.5% South Africa 0.0% Sudan 1.1% 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 GDP / Capita Equatorial -2.9% 2019, Constant 2010 PPP$ Guinea Typically, the higher the GDP per capita is of a country, the harder it is for that country to grow its economy * Trend-curve is generated by applying nonlinear regression on GDP growth and GDP per capita of 212 countries since 1980; weighted based on population Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 13 Nigeria’s income per capita growth was near the top of its comparison group in 2019, but projected to increase significantly over the next decade

HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER CAPITA EVOLUTION FOR COMPARISON COUNTRIES 2009-2029, constant 2010 PPP$* Growth p.a. 2009 2019 Projected growth p.a. 2029 ’09-’19 ’19- ’29 United States 35,805 1.5% 41,391 1.0% 45,853

South Africa 7,771 0.8% 8,412 0.8% 9,089

Equatorial Guinea 7,534 -0.2% 7,388 -5.7% 4,123

Ghana 2,683 4.7% 4,234 2.7% 5,538

Nigeria 4,074 -2.2% 3,274 0.3% 3,395

Kenya 2,175 3.4% 3,028 3.3% 4,196

Cote d’Ivoire 1,831 4.0% 2,708 3.3% 3,753

Angola 2,342 1.3% 2,670 0.1% 2,688

Cameroon 2,195 1.6% 2,568 2.3% 3,221

Sudan 2,396 -1.1% 2,142 -1.2% 1,895

Tanzania 1,366 2.4% 1,733 2.8% 2,287

Uganda 1,419 1.1% 1,580 4.4% 2,438

Ethiopia 743 3.2% 1,022 4.2% 1,543

* Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars, the metric used for cross-country comparisons Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 14 We now turn to socioeconomic and demographic perspectives on Nigeria. We use socioeconomic levels as described below

• Multimillionaires with inherited wealth • Owning rent-producing properties UPPER CLASS (AB) • Living in ostentatious luxury • Residences located in exclusive residential neighborhoods

• High-level executives or professionals at large firms • Same consumption habits as upper class, but constrained by income UPPER MIDDLE CLASS (C+) • Own or rent residence in residential zone • Members of first-class clubs and organizations

• Professionals, executives or employees of mid-sized businesses • Living in comfortable style MIDDLE CLASS (C) • Able to easily meet their primary needs • Reside in detached houses or modern buildings in middle-housing area

• Employees of small business or informal company • Live in heavily populated area LOWER MIDDLE CLASS (D+) • Live in apartment building or small detached houses • Able to meet their primary needs

• Low-level worker at small company • Almost no convenience goods LOWER CLASS (D) • Barely able to meet primary needs • Living in heavily populated area or informal housing

• Informal work or unemployed • Large family size MARGINALIZED CLASS (E) • Living outside urban centers in makeshift huts • Barely any convenience goods Source: AMAI; ZonaLatina; Canback analysis 15 On a global scale, Nigeria is a lower middle income country. Over the next 20 years, there won’t be significant changes in its income distribution

GLOBAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION 2019, Constant PPP$* 200 Asia Nigeria average household Europe 150 income 2019 = PPP$ 15,357 Africa N America 100 S America Oceania

50 Millions ofhouseholds Millions

0 Household

100 income 1,000

10,000 (log scale) 100,000

NIGERIA HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION 1,000,000 10 1979-2039, Constant PPP$* Nigeria 1979 8 Nigeria 2019 Nigeria 2039 6

4

2

Millions ofhouseholds Millions Household 0 income

(log scale)

100 1,000

* Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars 10,000

Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 100,000 16 1,000,000 The richest 6% of Nigerians earn 30.4% of total income. The income of the upper and upper-middle classes is nearly 12 times that of the lowest decile

INCOME DISTRIBUTION BY SOCIOECONOMIC GROUP NIGERIA INCOME PER CAPITA 2019, % 2019, NGN, by decile* Population Income Associated Population Share Share SEL Decile

Upper 0.8% 1.8% Upper, 3.1% 8.9% upper middle Upper middle 90-100% 1,406,768 9.7% and Middle Middle 10.0% Lower Lower middle 80% 677,353 middle Lower 15.2% 11.4% Lower 70% 565,436

21.6% 60% 461,870

50% 366,655

19.3% 40% 299,050 Marginalized 69.3% Marginalized 30% 259,054 Corresponding to Nigerian Gini 20% 195,624 28.8% index of 43.0

0-10% 115,073

2019 2019

* Average income by socioeconomic level (SEL) in Nigeria Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 17 In the next decade, per capita income will be stagnant, leading to similar SEL growth going forward

INCOME PER CAPITA GROWTH BY SEL SOCIOECONOMIC LEVEL DISTRIBUTION Constant 2010 NGN 2019-2029 CAGR 2009-2029, %

0.9% Upper 3.4% 1.4% 0.9% -2.2% 2.0% Upper 2.9% Upper middle 272,645 +0.3% 3.4% 3.6% 2.1% 4.4% 2.0% Upper middle 3.3% 3.5% Middle 218,803 226,028 Lower middle Middle 3.1% 12.1% 16.5% 16.8% Lower Lower middle 8.4%

Lower 2.8% 17.4%

Marginalized 2.3% 75.2% 73.1% Marginalized 2009 2019 2029 61.9%

The analysis is based on the international definition of SEL’s adapted from an association of research agencies (AMAI) in order to provide a standardized basis for cross-country comparisons. The current socioeconomic level index groups individuals in six levels based on an assignment tree considering 13 variables 2009 2019 2029

Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 18 The branded goods consuming class will increase by almost 3% CAGR in the next decade; population of the marginalized class will grow significantly

POPULATION BY SOCIOECONOMIC LEVEL BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASS* 1979-2039, millions 2019-2029, millions 220 Marginalized 200 +3.2% 32.0 180

160 Forecast

140 23.2 120

100

80 Lower 60 Lower middle 40 Middle 20 Upper middle Upper 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Over the next 20 years, classes of all socioeconomic levels will increase in absolute terms, with 2019 2029 marginalized class increasing the fastest whereas the growth rate of other classes are relatively similar. Apart from that, the branded goods consuming class in Nigeria will boom by 32% throughout the next decade, making Nigeria a better FMCG market.

* Branded goods are assumed to be consumed by lower middle class and above (i.e., lower middle + middle + upper middle + upper classes) Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 19 The youth population will grow more in absolute terms than any other age group in the next decade; share of each age category will be stable in next ten years

POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AGE GROUP EVOLUTION 2009-2029, millions ‘18-’28 2019-2029, millions CAGR 2.5% 257.8 Total population 150.3 195.9 251.6 5.0 55+ 6.8% 6.8% 7.2% 3.1% 5.4 5.5 45-54 6.3% 6.5% 7.2% 3.5% 9.0 35-44 9.4% 10.1% 10.0% 2.4% 7.9

25-34 14.3% 13.7% 14.2% 2.9% 24.0 19-24 11.0% 10.8% 201.0 11.5% 3.2%

Population in each age classes will increase during the next decade, with most significant increasing in youth 0-18 52.2% 2.1% 52.1% 49.9% bracket

2009 2019 2029 2019 0-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ 2029

Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 20 In West Africa, most of the largest cities are from Nigeria. The country has 50% of its population living in urban areas and is expected to further urbanize

20 LARGEST URBAN CENTERS IN WESTERN AFRICA MOST URBANIZED WESTERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES 2019 Nigeria Other countries 2019-2029 urban share of population** Population HCE*/capita Total HCE* Country 2019 2029 M PPP$ ‘000 PPP$ B Lagos 15.8 14.5 116.6 Mauritania 62.1% 66.5% Port Harcourt 2.9 10.5 30.2 Gambia 61.8% 65.7% Ibadan 3.6 7.8 27.9 Abidjan 5.6 4.5 25.1 Cote d'Ivoire 56.9% 62.6% Kumasi 3.1 7.0 21.4 Abuja 2.8 7.1 19.9 Ghana 56.5% 62.1% Kano 4.0 4.0 15.9 Nigeria 51.7% 59.0% Accra 2.5 6.5 15.9 Dakar 4.1 3.3 13.4 Liberia 51.3% 55.8% Benin City 1.7 10.2 6.0 Benin 45.8% 50.8% Aba 1.1 8.3 8.9 Uyo 1.1 7.8 8.3 Senegal 45.2% 49.8% Bamako 3.1 2.6 8.1 Mali 42.9% 49.7% Kaduna 1.1 6.8 7.7 Sekondi-Takoradi 0.9 8.2 7.0 Togo 42.0% 47.2% Jos 0.9 6.9 6.2 Sierra Leone 41.5% 46.2% Conakry 2.2 2.8 6.1 Warri 0.8 7.3 5.9 Guinea 39.2% 44.6% Owerri 0.8 6.4 5.4 Burkina Faso 33.1% 40.4% Ouagadougou 3.5 1.5 5.3 * HCE stands for household consumption expenditure. 2010 constant exchange rate used ** Urban population as a percentage of total population Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 21 Throughout the next ten years, Nigeria will urbanize faster than its peers, with the majority of the population growth being found in urban areas

NIGERIA POPULATION BREAKDOWN SOURCE OF POPULATION GROWTH 2019, millions 2009-2029, millions

Total: 201 +2.5% CAGR 257.8 Major cities* 20.9 42.6 +2.7% CAGR 27.3 (21.2%) 201.0 8.6 12.7 97.0 Rural 24.3 (48.3%) 154.4 9.6

61.3 (30.5%) 2009 Rural Other Major 2019 Rural Other Major 2029 Other urban urban cities urban cities URBANIZATION RATE Lagos Rural countryside Nigeria Year on year, 1999-2029 Comparison countries** Forecast

4.9% 4.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8%

1999 2009 2019 2029

* Cities with more than 500,000 residents ** Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Sudan Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 22 Lagos has the largest branded goods consuming class in Nigeria. The top 14 cities will see an average rate of 4% growth in branded goods consuming class

BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASS* BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASS CAGR SHARE BY MAJOR CITIES Population in 2019, ‘000 2019-2029e 2019, Nigeria Lagos 5,533 3.0%

Kano Ibadan 1,766 4.0% Zaria 4.7% 1.4% Port Harcourt 1,728 4.2%

Abuja 1,240 2.6% Kaduna 2.4% Kano 1,092 3.8% Jos 1.9% Kaduna 546 3.8% Abuja Yola 1.3% Ibaban 5.3% Yola Benin City 512 4.0% 7.6% 1.3% Uyo 487 4.3%

Benin City Aba 467 3.6% 2.2% Owerri Aba 1.2% Jos 442 2.0% 3.7%

Warri 420 4.4% Warri Uyo Zaria 316 1.8% 3.7% Lagos 2.1% 23.8% Port Harcourt Yola 294 4.1% 7.4% Owerri 285 4.4%

* Branded goods are assumed to be consumed by lower middle class and above (i.e., lower middle + middle + upper middle + upper classes) Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 23 Port Harcourt has the highest share of affluent consumers. Over time, the country’s most well-off group will grow rapidly

SHARE OF POPULATION BY INCOME BRACKET Below NGN 250K NGN 250K - 750K Above NGN 750K 2019 '19-'29 cagr '19-'29 cagr '19-'29 cagr Port Harcourt 1% 18% 80% -8.3% -10.5% 6.3%

Ibadan 3% 37% 60% -11.0% -8.7% 8.3%

Uyo 3% 37% 60% -10.5% -8.1% 8.8%

Aba 3% 37% 59% -10.5% -8.0% 8.4%

Lagos 3% 38% 59% -13.2% -10.4% 6.9%

Warri 4% 39% 57% -11.4% -7.7% 9.0%

Abuja 4% 39% 57% -14.0% -10.2% 6.8%

Jos 4% 40% 56% -11.6% -7.3% 8.7%

Kaduna 5% 40% 55% -12.3% -7.5% 8.7%

Owerri 5% 41% 53% -12.9% -7.1% 9.4%

Benin City 7% 43% 50% -13.7% -6.4% 9.6%

Zaria 7% 43% 50% -13.8% -6.5% 9.4%

Yola 15% 52% 33% -7.5% 3.5% 13.0%

Kano 16% 54% 30% -12.9% -0.6% 12.0%

Less than NGN 250K NGN 250K – 750K More than NGN 750K NGN 250K and 750K were used as income cutoff points to illustrate how income brackets can meaningfully segment a population based on consumption power Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 24 Canback Consulting is a global management consulting firm mainly working on issues where quantitative analysis is central to success

Founded by Dr. Staffan Canback, we are an elite management consulting firm.

We operate globally with the world’s largest companies as clients. This has taken us to 89 countries since our founding in 2004.

The basis for our work is predictive analytics, applied with high resolution, and informed by on-the-ground market observations.

Canback has five practices: Strategy, M&A Due Diligence, Sources of Growth, Corporate Finance, and Performance Improvement.

We also offer analytic services with the Canback Global Income Distribution Database (C-GIDD) as our cardinal product.

Canback is a subsidiary of The Economist Group since 2015.

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