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Home , Jane Philpott, Paul Manly

2019 END OF SITTING

Late last week, the Speaker of the House of Commons adjourned the chamber for ostensibly the final time in the 42nd Parliament. While technically, the House stands adjourned until September 16th, the prime minister will ask the governor-general to draw up the election writ earlier in September, in accordance with the federal fixed-election day statute. The Senate has also concluded, and the governor general gave Royal MP Romeo Saganash. Montrealais, . U.S. Mission Geneva/ Assent to 21 bills in a ceremony Friday afternoon. Wikimedia Commons. Eric Bridiers, Wikimedia Commons.

As is normal for any government, a number of bills will die on the Order Paper. In addition to the government bills the triaged out of priority, many private member’s bills also remain unpassed, including some high profile and politically sensitive ones such asRomeo Saganash’s bill on the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, and Rona Ambrose’s bill requiring specialized sexual assault training for federally appointed judges.

House of Commons. 416style, Wikimedia Commons. CUSMA over the summer For much of the last month, the House of Commons had been sitting for extended hours to pass a slate of One important unpassed government bill could serve as legislation ahead of the summer break and upcoming a focal point this summer: Bill C-100, the implementing federal election. Among the key bills the government legislation for the United States Mexico Free finally passed into law were: Trade Agreement (CUSMA). Implementation of the refreshed trilateral trade pact is a politically charged • C-48 (Tanker Moratorium) issue in all three signatory countries for different • C-68 (Fisheries Act) reasons, and, at present, U.S. President Donald Trump’s • C-69 (Environmental Assessment) and Prime Minister ’s political interests • C-71 (Firearms) are aligned in getting this political “win”. In fact, the U.S. administration has enlisted Canada’s support in Other major, yet less contentious, bills included: working over U.S. Democrats holding up implementing • C-81 (Accessibility) legislation south of the border, while (perhaps in • C-91 (Indigenous Languages) exchange for) a pledge to help Canada in its current • C-92 (First Nations Child Welfare) diplomatic, trade and consular difficulties with China.

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Moreover, should the political circumstances align appropriately, there is a real possibility that the will recall Parliament this summer for an extraordinary sitting to resume consideration of Bill C-100, and get it passed before the prime minister asks the governor general to dissolve Parliament before the writ. Doing so would allow the government (read Liberals) to go into the campaign period on an economic narrative, turning the page on a spring that was less controlled in terms of proactive messaging.

Framing the pre-election period The summer adjournment also comes following a series of political developments that will help frame important pre-election positioning. Last week, the prime minister Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Official Opposition, MP re-approved the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion . Mark Girdauskas, Wikimedia Commons. following several months of court-ordered delays and reassessments. As a package deal, the government also The Conservatives unveiled their long-awaited passed its legislation redesigning the environmental environmental and climate change plan that posits assessment, energy regulatory and Indigenous regulatory large final emitter emission caps as an consultation frameworks, as well as passing legislation alternative to a consumer carbon tax. The New banning tanker traffic along parts of the West Coast Democrats have pre-released a framework for their and revamping the Fisheries Act. The Final Report of election platform. The Green Party is coming off the Advisory Council on the Implementation of National an upset federal by-election win (and came close Pharmacare was issued, calling for a single-payer to forming government in PEI), adding fresh wind universal Pharmacare system. to its sails. Former star cabinet ministers turned dissident Jody Wilson Raybould and Jane Philpott announced they will be seeking re-election, but as independents.

Thus begins the framing contest for the pre-election period. This is the first pre-election summer under new elections legislation that formally designates a “Pre-Election Period” with its own rules and restrictions in addition to the formal electoral writ period. Previously, spending and advertising restrictions, as well as reporting requirements for political parties and third parties, only applied during MP Jody Wilson-Raybould. Erich Saide, MP Jane Philpott. Dave Kalmbach, Wikimedia Commons. Wikimedia Commons. the writ. The creation of the pre-election period

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carries with it a number of new restrictions. For third- Conservatives will also aggressively campaign against parties, the new restrictions imposed for the duration the new carbon tax. Polls show the Conservatives of the pre-election period, which starts June 30th, consistently ahead by several points, which one might include: assume to be good news for the Tories. Should this lead continue throughout the summer, however, it also • a general third-party spending cap of $1 million on means they will be going into the election campaign partisan activities, advertising and election surveys; with all other parties aiming at them. • a ban on the use of foreign funds for electoral purposes during the pre-election period; • a requirement for third parties to self-identify on pre-election partisan advertisements; and • a spending cap of roughly $10,000 to promote or oppose the election of candidates or nominees in one riding. Political parties kicking into high gear The political parties are all preparing aggressively for the election.

The Conservatives, currently leading the polls, have already nominated 300 out of 338 candidates, and have a full war chest following two successive record and Leader of the Liberal Party, MP Justin Trudeau. Frank Schwichtenberg, Wikimedia Commons. quarters in fundraising. The CPC leader is kicking off his summer tour with a week in Nunavut before heading to the Calgary Stampede followed by an aggressive The Liberals also have a full war chest, occupying summer tour schedule. His focus of the last several second place in the fundraising ranks. The party is weeks has been outlining major thematic policy easily poised to spend the maximum allowable amount positioning, with a ffif ve-keynote speech series: foreign in the election, having benefitted from the creation policy, economy, immigration, Confederation, and the – for the first time – of a national supporter and environment. donor database under the leadership of Mr. Trudeau. They also have 300 candidates nominated, and the Platform development is well underway, having moved platform team is well advanced in its work. Similar to to the second phase of review and assessment the Conservatives, the first intake is complete, and following the initial intake from shadow cabinet the second phase of triage and additional vetting is members and stakeholders. Mr. Scheer’s job will be underway. Four co-chairs have been appointed, and the to try to woo voters disaffected with the Liberals and pre-election tour plans are set. will make Justin Trudeau the focus of his attention. They will also work to portray Mr. Scheer as a relatable For the Liberals, the issue framing will be largely one “middle class dad next door” in contrast to the celebrity of underscoring historically low unemployment, and trappings of his prime rival. initiatives implemented to help the middle class. They

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are also expected to try to wedge the Conservatives Mr. Singh needs to pry them back with a compelling on climate change, attempt to portray the party as vision, and the he now has contrast opportunities: harboring extreme elements, and showcase their for example, taking a stand firmly against the Trans TMX/C-69/C-48 package as evidence of a balanced Mountain Pipeline while the Liberals play the middle in approach to economic development that respects what has become a largely polarized debate. He also environmental protection. took quick and unequivocal action in health policy, being the first (and so far, only) party leader to fully Pharmacare is also expected to be a central plank, embrace the Hoskin’s report on a universal Pharmacare though likely not unveiled until the formal writ period. program. Polls show the Liberals just a few points behind the Conservatives. A key consideration will be to narrow The NDP will see significant renewal in their caucus that gap during the summer months, and to launch the with a number of high-performing veterans retiring campaign with a renewed momentum. Passing CUSMA from politics, but Mr. Singh has also attracted the return may help in that regard. of battle-hardened old pros like former MP Svend Robinson. Thus far, 107 candidates are in place, and the summer will see a series of earned media opportunities as the party unveils new names. A week ago, Mr. Singh unveiled a comprehensive vision document, although it will be further articulated as the formal election platform is rolled out this fall.

Leader of the NDP, MP . BGM Riding Association, Wikimedia Commons.

The New Democrats have been finding their footing Leader of the , MP . Karen Fox, Wikimedia after a shaky start for new leader Jagmeet Singh. Since Commons. his entry into Parliament in a recent by-election, Mr. Singh has been occupying more media attention in As Elizabeth May and her Green Party head into response to the day-to-day thrust of politics. Recent the summer, they will be looking to build on some events have also lined up in a manner he can try to unprecedented momentum. After Paul Manly’s win exploit, The Liberals are his primary target, given in the -Ladysmith byelection in May, the the Team Trudeau’s success at coalescing most party heads into the campaign period with two MPs “progressive” votes under his brand in 2015. for the first time, and a record number of provincial

Page 4 | June 24, 2019 2019 END OF SITTING representatives. Ms. May and her team want to keep The Caretaker Convention the wind in their sails in order to make a real impact in Long-established convention dictates what ridings across the country in October. Their platform governments can and cannot do in the pre-election team reports that 175 candidates have secured their period; designed to allow governments to exercise nominations for the upcoming election and that their necessary (non-partisan and non-political) action to final campaign platform will be released towards the keep government operations running normally or to end of August. The party coffers are also reasonably respond to emergencies such as natural disasters. well stocked ahead of the election, after posting a Generally, the intent is to “defer to the extent possible surplus of $64,000 and some $2.5 million in overall such matters as appointments, policy decisions, revenue in 2017. new spending or other initiatives, announcements, negotiations or consultations, non-routine contracts and grants and contributions” until after the election, while simultaneously ensuring that the non-visionary aspects of government operation continue by the public service.

Traditionally in a pre-election environment, the public service largely shuts down into “caretaker mode” in the summer preceding a known election, to avoid a perception that government activities are being used to bolster the pre-election prospects of the incumbent government. The convention has now been turned into a formal (written) policy of the Privy Council Office, and updated. It now explicitly articulates that the Caretaker Convention will apply when the writ period begins. This

Leader of the Green Party of Canada, MP Elizabeth May. Image: Visible Hand. means we may see more government announcements this summer than we are accustomed to seeing in a pre- election environment. All party leaders and MPs will be spread out across the country for much of the summer as they make Under Canada’s elections law, the write period must the rounds to stump on the BBQ circuit ahead of the be no shorter than 36 days, and no longer than 50. federal election in October. The prime minister has just This means the prime minister will be going to the returned from a brief trip to Washington D.C. to meet governor-general sometime between September 1st with the U.S. president and leaders in the House of and September 15th – for an October 1st election. Representatives and Senate. Next week, he is off to Japan to participate in the G20 Leader’s Summit. The Calgary Stampede typically draws all party leaders, Earnscliffe will be closely monitoring the various political and has traditionally served as the unofficial kick-off of parties’ policy announcements, campaign developments the summer flapjack and BBQ season for politician – a and trends throughout the summer and into the season that will be more robust this year, given the campaign period. If you have questions, please contact coming election. us at earnscliffe.ca.

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