The Reprieve

www.policymagazine.ca November—December 2019

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

The Reprieve

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In This Issue

3 From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald The Reprieve Canadian Politics and 4 Robin V. Sears Public Policy The Bittersweet Election Lori Turnbull EDITOR AND PUBLISHER 7 L. Ian MacDonald Why Nobody Made it to 170 [email protected] 9 Geoff Norquay ASSOCIATE EDITOR AND Not a Campaign for the Ages DEPUTY PUBLISHER John Delacourt Lisa Van Dusen 12 [email protected] The Day the Poetry Died: How the Liberals Snatched Victory from Disaster CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Thomas S. Axworthy, 15 Yaroslav Baran Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, Word to Fellow Conservatives: Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano, Revive the ‘Tory Syndrome’ at Your Peril Margaret Clarke, Celine Cooper, Rachel Curran, Susan Delacourt, 18 Brian Topp Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, Election 2019, the NDP: One More Rung Up the Ladder Martin Goldfarb, Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage, Frank Graves, 20 Column / Elizabeth May Shachi Kurl, Brad Lavigne, ‘We Fight On’ Kevin Lynch, Jeremy Kinsman, Daniel Béland Andrew MacDougall, Peter Mansbridge, 21 Carissima Mathen, Velma McColl, Quebec’s Split Decision: A Tour d’horizon David McLaughlin, David Mitchell, Graham Fraser Don Newman, Geoff Norquay, 23 Minority Rights, Bill 21 and the Election Fen Osler Hampson, Robin V. Sears, Gil Troy, Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt, 26 Column / Jean Charest Anthony Wilson-Smith Back to the Future WEB DESIGN Tiffany Gooch Nicolas Landry 27 [email protected] Beyond Blackface: Repairing the Legacy of Anti-Black Racism SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR 30 Douglas Porter and Robert Kavcic Grace MacDonald Post-Election Economic Landscape: A Minority Report Card [email protected] 32 Kevin Page and Mélyne Nzabonimpa GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Money Matters: Fiscal Performance and Minority Governments Monica Thomas [email protected] 35 Column / Don Newman Monsieur Blanchet’s Tour de Force Policy Policy is published six times annually by LPAC Ltd. The contents are Canada and the World copyrighted, but may be reproduced with permission and attribution in 36 Jeremy Kinsman print, and viewed free of charge at Brexit: A Rationale, Not a Defence the Policy home page at www.policymagazine.ca. Printed and distributed by St. Joseph BOOK REVIEW Communications, 1165 Kenaston Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4 39 Anthony Wilson-Smith Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf Before the Lights Go Out: Inside a Game on the Brink Lounges across Canada, as well Sean Fitz-Gerald as VIA Rail Lounges in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. Now available on PressReader.

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From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald The Reprieve elcome to our special issue court concurs the Liberals averted de- ment can be a good thing in a federa- on the federal election, The feat, and tells the inside of how they tion. “It is,” he writes, “to the benefit W Reprieve, as we’ve called it. turned “Trudeau’s crisis” over black- of Canadians that there be some form For Justin Trudeau, the 2019 federal face to their advantage on policy. of implicit checks and balances.” election results may not have been From the Conservative perspective, Writer and Liberal strategist Tiffany a relief, but they certainly were a re- Yaroslav Baran observes that while Gooch looks beyond the election and prieve. He’s won a workable minor- Andrew Scheer won the popular vote, sees an opportunity to hold the new ity government, at 157 seats—only he needs to overcome the “regional government to account on “improv- 13 short of a majority—and needing and demographic divides” that keep ing the lives of Black Canadians.” the Conservatives in opposition. only the NDP with their 24 seats to On the economic file, BMO econo- put the Liberals in majority territory. Brian Topp has filled senior roles in mists Doug Porter and Robert Kavcic the NDP, most recently as chief of Welcome to the NHL, Jagmeet Singh, note that markets are accustomed staff to former Premier Rachel Not- who may have lost the house but to minority governments in Cana- ley in Alberta. While acknowledg- saved the furniture of the New Dem- da, three in the last 15 years alone. ocrats in the Commons. ing the NDP took a serious hit in the They’re predicting “plenty of horse election, he sees grounds for hope, For Trudeau, the reprieve of a via- trading before next year’s budget.” ble minority government is obvious- not just in a minority House, but in Former Parliamentary Budget Officer ly much better than losing after only Jagmeet Singh’s winning campaign Kevin Page, now President of the In- one term in office, and bearing the performance and a caucus of, “an im- stitute for Fiscal Studies and Democ- blame for the defeat after running a pressive, young, gender balanced and racy, looks ahead with economics lacklustre campaign in which he not diverse set of candidates.” student Mélyne Nzabonimpa at Bud- only failed to define a ballot question, In a Guest Column, outgoing Green get 2020 and thinks the Liberals will but was haunted by a spotty record Party Leader Elizabeth May also takes move quickly on “affordability”. The that included the SNC-Lavalin fiasco, a measure of hope from what she fiscal question remains, as always: and the firing of two women ministers calls a “dispiriting” and “a dirty cam- Where’s the money coming from? who refused to toe the leader’s line. paign.” May has only three seats to Our columnist Don Newman also If it’s any consolation for Trudeau, show for over 1 million votes. Which congratulates Blanchet on a strong none of the other leaders had much makes her case for electoral reform, and smart campaign, and notes he to write home about either, as Rob- as well as the climate change fight. will be an important player in a mi- in Sears writes in our lead article, The Her conclusion: “We fight on.” nority House. Bittersweet Election. Himself a former ooking at Quebec, McGill’s Dan- national director of the NDP, Sears iel Béland writes that the “big- In our Canada and the World feature, writes that if the campaign strategists gest success” of the 2019 elec- foreign policy hand Jeremy Kinsman L looks at the Brexit drama, now head- were called in for a group meeting, tion was “the return of the Bloc “no matter how they struggled to de- Québécois to centre stage”, with leading to an election on December 12, fend themselves, the answer would er Yves-François Blanchet taking the and what it all means, not only for surely be the same: ‘You’re all fired.’” Bloc there, notably with strong per- the U.K., but Britain’s partners such Lori Turnbull explains why no par- formances in the French debates. as Canada. ty got to a majority of 170 seats, and Author and former Official Languages Finally, if you’re looking for books for calls the campaign “an epic fail, ex- commissioner Graham Fraser looks at the holidays, nothing could be more cept perhaps for the Bloc Québécois.” the language issue, always a factor in Canadian than hockey in a small Geoff Norquay looks inside the num- Francophone ridings, which often de- town. Contributing writer Anthony bers and agrees it was definitely not a termine election outcomes, as it did in Wilson-Smith looks at Sean Fitz-Ger- campaign for the ages, with the lead- this one, giving the Bloc 32 seats and ald’s Before the Lights Go Out, a com- ers behaving like “internet trolls”, depriving Trudeau of another majority. pelling look at the competitive and by which “they devalued themselves In a Guest Column, former federal financial challenges facing minor and the political process.” minister and longtime Quebec Premier hockey in Canada. Looking at the parties, John Dela- Jean Charest thinks minority govern- Enjoy.

November/December 2019 4

Justin Trudeau doing what he does best—working the crowd. At the end of a campaign neither major party won, he now leads a minority government. Adam Scotti photo

The Bittersweet Election

Between the polls directing the narrative, social media Robin V. Sears setting the agenda and a notable gap between the con- ot every election delivers a cerns voters were expressing in real life and what leaders clear victor, but few are as ugly talked about on stages across the country and in debates, N and deliver as many los- ers as Canada’s did on October 21. the 2019 federal campaign was arguably as close as Can- It was bittersweet for all parties. Per- ada comes to a dumpster fire. The results, as Robin Sears haps for the country as well. writes, delivered enough punishment to go around. Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer both lost votes, status and leadership credentials as a result of exceed- ingly poor campaigns. Jagmeet Singh “saved the furniture” and re-ener- gized his leadership, but still lost a batch of valuable members. About Elizabeth May’s campaign, kindness dictates the less said the better. Even the Bloc have reason to be anx- ious. Their surge to prominence in

Policy 5 Quebec was a new high-water mark If we were on the national executives of either the since 2008—from which they will surely sag. Just as they did in the Liberal or the Conservative parties, we’d summon the wake of their first surge to fame. The team of campaign strategists for a post-election analysis. No existential question for them, re- matter how they struggled to defend themselves, the answer mains, “What is the point?” Is Pre- would surely be the same: ‘You’re all fired.’ mier François Legault going to use them to apply pressure on Ottawa? No. Is the Parti Québécois’ compet- itiveness going to be enhanced by having a large bench of Bloc MPs? the influence he wielded in 2015— Not if history is any guide. Martin 2005—so no one should be carbon campaigning went with him, sanguine about the path forward. If we were on the national executives leaving behind a basket of boutique But for the country, the ugly, undem- of either the Liberal or the Conserva- electoral plums that, collectively, ocratic outcome has laid a hostage to tive parties, we’d summon the team added up to not very much. A tax political fortune that must now be of campaign strategists for a post- credit to go camping! International addressed. Fully two out of three Ca- election analysis. No matter how pundits fell about laughing, Canadi- nadians opposed the choice of Justin they struggled to defend themselves, ans mostly winced. Trudeau as prime minister—yet there the answer would surely be the same: he was on election night hailing his “You’re all fired.” Jagmeet Singh was the surprise of the campaign, with reporters cover- “mandate.” Some mandate. How- Each campaign was based on an ing their previous derision with faux ever, in “vote efficiency” it was a tri- improbable and bizarre thesis. For astonishment: “Where has this guy umph. It took more than ten times as the Conservatives, it was that they been hiding?” It was a man and a many Green voters to elect an MP as would make their pitch a referen- moment. The blackface controversy Grits (387,000 vs 37,600). It took three dum on Trudeau, an admittedly divi- and his response to it helped. Bill 21 times as many New Democrats, com- sive figure. Having a bland, pro-life, did, too. But it was his gracious re- pared to Liberals, to elect a member. pro-gun, anti-climate change closet- sponse to the revelation that not all “Well, too bad, that’s the way our sys- ed American—as one angry Ontario Canadians are actually colour blind tem works,” mutter the political old Tory insider put it to John Ivison—as that helped him erupt as a nation- boys. But consider the consequences their alternative was perhaps not the al political figure. He also solidly an- for Canada. The Conservatives have most adroit campaign strategy. chored the party on the progressive more than a handful of urban seats in The Liberals’ strategy was, if any- left, giving up the fatal centrism of only three of Canada’s metropolises: thing, more gormless. They pounded the Mulcair 2015 disaster. Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg. on the despised premier of Ontario, For other Conservatives, among the His youthful joy and playfulness and it helped them there, no doubt, 85 per cent of Canadians who live in distinguished him from two com- but they elected not a single MP be- cities, this means they should not ex- petitors who sounded like old men tween Winnipeg and Vancouver. pect to elect an MP anytime soon… woodenly reading their focus-tested The Doug Ford ghost stories were less unless they move. For western Liber- lines. Singh and his young team had resonant as proof of Andrew Scheer’s als, with no seats between Winnipeg fun with online jokes and dancing at scariness in St.John’s, Saskatoon or and Vancouver, this means that like events, and it worked. Salmon Arm, not surprisingly. most rural or small-town Canadians, They failed utterly to give their lead- they will not soon help elect their er the material he needed to look own member of Parliament. o, now what? less like an actor or to help him shed S hese distortions of a balanced some of the patrician tone that had Political insiders have their preferenc- democratic outcome continue made him the most polarizing prime es as to which past minority govern- across demography, class and minister in a generation. Liberal in- T ment serves best as a template. The geography. In a federation as perenni- siders said grimly that the campaign youngest and most conservative point ally fissiparous as ours, this is a dan- as Gerry Butts had envisioned it was to the Harper success; older, wiser gerous pattern to permit to set over to be “‘all carbon, all the time.” To heads point to Martin, Trudeau père, time. We’ve seen this movie. It en- which there was understandable re- and Pearson. But let us not be compla- courages local troublemakers to seek sistance from those whose memories cent. Given that the Tories still have partisan gain at the expense of Ca- went back as far as Stéphane Dion. a full campaign war chest and an em- nadian unity—sometimes even using When Butts fell on his sword over battled leader, their temptation for an taxpayers’ dollars to stir a secession- SNC-Lavalin—he joined the cam- early rematch is high. Minorities often ist pot. It encourages no premier or paign on paper but never recovered collapse out of mishap—Clark 1979, prime minister to make concessions

November/December 2019 6 across the federal/provincial divide. It thusiasm apparently, has nothing to only competitor to Canada as a suc- incites too many to make social me- do with PR. It is merely a system al- cessful federal state. They have had dia threats. There’s a lot of nonsense lowing party bosses to swap second stable governments, a minimum of spoken in defence of our electoral sys- ballot choices among their activists regional tensions—and a consistently tem and the competing methods used to enhance the size and strength of booming economy. by mature democracies. The first is the largest two parties. We did a ver- Toronto could remain a Red—with that it produces stable majority gov- sion in B.C. for many years, until its a smattering of Orange—fortress for ernments: No, it does not, when you obvious openness to partisan cor- the foreseeable future, but Greens have more than two parties, as in Can- ruption meant that it was killed. and Tories would have representa- ada where we have had seven minori- Today of the 27 major democracies, tion at the regional level, too. Before ties in the past half century. there is only one that does not use we stage one more half-hearted ref- Another foolishness is that First- some form of real proportional repre- erendum of an entirely unfocused Past-the-Post [FPTP] ensures “local sentation for some part of their demo- query about reform, why not do it empowerment” over “party bosses” cratic decision-making, other than us. the normal way, with legislation? choices: No, it does not, unless you One. The United States of America. Sunset it after two elections, if folks are a Liberal voter in English Canada are squeamish about having Parlia- That icon of clean democratic trans- in a non-urban, contested riding— ment deciding how parliamentar- parency, free of bought candidates a rather small sample of Canadi- ians will be elected. Put the MMP or gerrymandered seats, with equal ans. For the rest of us, nominations system into law and see if it makes representation for all. Really? Do Ca- are increasingly a joke. FPTP means things less dangerously distorted. If nadians want our most important party leaders can choose candidates not, ditch it or correct it. New Zea- democratic institutions to follow the who are then certain to be elected in land went through several tweaks American electoral system. No, per- more than half of the ridings in Can- before settling on their new voting haps not. Since 1979, when Ed Broad- ada. Effective? Yes, if you are a Lib- system—the sky did not fall. eral party boss in Ontario or Quebec bent first formally proposed it, Cana- or their peer Tory operatives west of dian experts on democratic reform This is an ideal moment in our his- Winnipeg. Democratic? Hardly. have almost all landed on the German tory to sort this out. October 21 was model, called Mixed Member Propor- a loud wake-up call about the conse- he ignorant claims get worse tional [MMP] voting. Two votes, for quences if we don’t. when discussing any system two members, for every citizen. One Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, T that divides seats more accu- for a local MP on a FPTP basis, the oth- a Principal of the Earnscliffe Strategy rately, proportional representation. er on a regional PR basis. It’s worked Group, was National Director of the Preferential balloting, a Trudeau en- very well for more than 60 years in the NDP during the Broadbent years.

www.policymagazine.ca November—December 2019

Canadian Politics and Public Policy ELECTION 2019 A Policy Magazine Working Lunch The Rideau Club | 99 Bank Street 15th Floor | Ottawa Wednesday, November 27, 2019 | 12 - 2 PM

Policy Editor L. Ian MacDonald in conversation with our writers and contributors. Graham Fraser: Journalist, bestselling author and former Commissioner of Official Languages. The Reprieve Elizabeth May: Former Leader of the Green Party of Canada. Robin V. Sears: Principal. Earnscliffe Strategy Group and former $6.95 Volume 7 – Issue 6 National Director of the NDP. Lori Turnbull: Professor and executive, Dalhousie University and co-winner of the Donner Prize. Audience Q&A will follow, moderated by Don Newman, columnist for Policy.

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Policy 7

Nobody reached the 170 seats required for a majority in the House of Commons, though all the recognized parties could claim some victory. Otherwise, Lori Turnbull writes, the election would have been an all-round “epic fail”. Parliament of Canada photo Why Nobody Made it to 170

Aside from all the other political developments of 2019, it Lori Turnbull may be remembered as the year when Canada acceded to f it weren’t for a few qualified the growing global club of ambivalent, no-such-thing-as- silver linings, the general election a-clean-getaway election results. In the United States, in I of 2019 might be described as an epic fail for every political party ex- Britain, in Israel, in Germany and elsewhere, discordant cept the Bloc Québécois. outcomes have produced intractability and division. Dal- To be fair, all of the parties won housie University’s Lori Turnbull explains why, here in something—with the exception of Canada, we got anything but a landslide. Maxime Bernier and his People’s Party of Canada, who failed to claim a single seat. The Liberals “won” the election in the sense that they continue to hold enough seats for a strong minority government. The Conservatives claimed the popular vote—albeit by a hair—and increased the size of their caucus by

November/December 2019 8 23 seats. The New Democratic Party the better option, despite a series of All the parties need to do some soul did better than many expected, and revelations that sowed doubt about searching lest the status quo be al- the Greens picked up a seat in New Trudeau’s authenticity. lowed to prevail in four years’ time Brunswick. The Bloc were the big (or sooner). These existential reflec- NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was fac- winners; their seat count went up tions must include questions about by 22 and they regained official par- ing an uphill battle since day one. It took him a year and a half to become leadership for every party except the ty status, which allows Bloc MPs to Bloc. Scheer already has sharks in the be members of standing committees a member of his own parliamentary water and May has expressed doubt in the House of Commons. Both the caucus, which gave him less than a that she’ll continue for another four NDP and the Bloc elected enough year as a parliamentarian before he years. Singh might have some runway MPs to be potential kingmakers for faced another election. He spent most the Liberal minority government, of his first days as leader handling in- but needs to solidify the identity of which presumably they will do on ternal party matters, including accu- the party, especially since many of its an issue-by-issue basis as matters of sations of sexual harassment against brass—including veteran MP Nathan common purpose arise. Saskatchewan MP Erin Weir, which Cullen—decided not to accompany distracted from his messaging about Singh into this election. But the losses that this election pro- himself and his vision for the party. duced were more significant than He lost 18 seats in this election but the victories. Justin Trudeau and the based on how things looked for the Liberals lost their majority govern- NDP a year ago, it could have been They all have ment status and their share of the worse. He ran the most upbeat cam- succumbed to the popular vote was six points low- paign and that might have count- temptation to micro-target er than it was in 2015. That’s a lot ed for something among voters who voters whose support they of votes. On several occasions dur- grew tired of the truly uninspiring ing the campaign, it looked like An- exchanges among leaders. Elizabeth can count on and to drew Scheer and the Conservatives May and the Greens really ought to abandon the nation- could form a government—an out- have done better, given that climate building cause, which come unthinkable not so long ago. change was a prominent policy issue requires parties and leaders The Trudeau brand that catapulted (to the extent that policy featured at the Liberal Party back into the Prime all). Instead of leveraging recent elec- to extend their growth Minister’s Office only four years ago toral gains for several of their provin- beyond their base and has been tarnished, mostly by allega- cial counterparts, which were gener- attract new votes. tions of poor judgment on the part ally at the expense of the NDP, the of Trudeau. But despite the traction federal Greens seemed to take these that these allegations have held, outcomes as reasons to rest on their Scheer was not able to turn this elec- laurels. To be fair though, both of tion into a real win for himself and these parties got shortchanged by the Even Trudeau would be wise to think the Conservatives. Granted, he was first-past-the-post exchange rate. never really supposed to. When he about a succession plan. A big part of was selected as the leader of the Con- his strategy in 2015 was to recruit star he fractured state of the party servative Party—again, by a hair—it candidates with high profiles and im- system didn’t help matters. was assumed that a Trudeau victory With so many to choose from pressive track records. This approach in the 2019 election was inevitable T might have helped him to win votes and no bright light among them, and that the Conservatives would there was no compelling gathering and to form government, but it also have some time to rebuild before point for likeminded voters. Instead has the effect of increasing the num- making a real play for government, of bringing us together, the parties ber of potential leadership contend- whether under Scheer’s leadership are dividing us up. They all have suc- ers in cabinet and caucus. Leadership or someone else’s. However, the Lib- cumbed to the temptation to micro- and brand are virtually synonymous erals’ first mandate was bumpier target voters whose support they can these days. If his brand is not restored than expected and there is a palpa- count on and to abandon the na- and soon, the Liberals might consid- ble sense that this was Scheer’s election-building cause, which requires tion to lose, and that he did. er looking around the caucus room parties and leaders to extend their for a replacement before the country Even though the Liberals came first growth beyond their base and attract votes again. in seats, it didn’t seem like a revival new votes. This is why Trudeau and of the Trudeau brand or even the Lib- the Liberals were successful in 2015: Lori Turnbull is the Director of the eral one, for that matter. It was more they appealed beyond their base. But School of Public Administration at that the Conservatives didn’t con- none of the parties did that in the Dalhousie University. She is a co- vince enough people that they were 2019 election. winner of the Donner Prize.

Policy 9

Not a Campaign for the Ages

While Canadian politics—as evidenced by the shutting Conservatives both started drop- ping in public support. After trad- out of Maxime Bernier’s neo-populist People’s Party on ing miniscule leads back and forth October 21—have not quite sunk to the levels of tox- at the 34-36 percentage support lev- icity poisoning democracies elsewhere, the 2019 cam- el for weeks, the two parties moved steadily down in lockstep to the low- paign was still deemed the nastiest in memory by both er range of 31-32 percent as vot- participants and observers. Veteran Conservative strat- ing day approached. While support for the Liberals and Conservatives egist Geoff Norquay explores what went wrong. bounced back on October 21, this decline in support was a telling reac- tion to a snarky, vapid and repellent Geoff Norquay created his own problems, too. He campaign that offended many voters self-destructed on hot-button social and fed their political cynicism. o say that the recent election issues, predictably feeding the Liberal campaign was nasty and ex- fear-machine, then got caught hiding cessively personal among the his American dual-citizenship (“no T ow did this happen? political leaders ranks as the under- one asked”) after criticizing others in H statement of the year. the past for their foreign links. In a mid-campaign piece for Earn- scliffe’s Election Insights, veteran poll- Charges of hypocrisy masqueraded as As the leaders began to act like inter- ster Allan Gregg wrote that when po- substance while real issues went un- net trolls, making Trump-like smears litical parties construct the specifics addressed. Justin Trudeau used over- a daily tactic of their campaigns, of their respective ballot questions, the-top scare tactics against provin- they devalued themselves and the they are signaling to voters that “I am cial phantoms who were not on the political process. It was therefore not like you, and I am for you.” That is federal ballot. Andrew Scheer re- surprising that a funny thing hap- why the three main parties respond- sponded by calling the prime minis- pened in the polls about 10 days out ed to widespread concerns about the ter a phony, a fraud and liar, but he from October 21—the Liberals and rising cost of living with a host of

Leadership October 26% 8% 35% 31% ANDREW SCHEER Favourability February 23% 11% 15% 51% Since February 2019, Canadians have grown more familiar with Scheer and Singh. More now have October 35% 11% 39% 16% a negative opinion of Scheer while JUSTIN TRUDEAU positive impressions of Singh have February 41% 12% 33% 14% risen. Trudeau’s net favourability has worsened, now in negative territory. October 29% 13% 13% 45%

Now, please indicate how favourable or JAGMEET SINGH unfavourable an opinion you have of each of February the following federal party leaders. 15% 11% 13% 61%

Favourable impression (5-7) Neutral (4) Base: ONLINE: OF THOSE WHO HOLD AN IMPRESSION, n=1298. Fieldwork October 1st —6th, 2019. Unfavourable impression (1-3) Not Familiar

November/December 2019 10 similar boutique tax cuts and credits parties and determining election out- period as he became better known pitched to appeal to micro-targeted comes. This research (link to tables and voters liked what they saw. In- sub-groups of the population. goes here) found that impressions of terestingly, when the research tested leaders are such a powerful driver of the evolution of favourable impres- In public opinion research, Earn- vote consideration for most electors sions of the leaders over the past year, scliffe conducted mid-campaign on that they relegate all other factors to Justin Trudeau was the only leader voters’ reactions to the parties’ prom- marginal impact. That said, positive whose standing among voters had ises aimed at the cost of living, at opinions of a leader are a “significant worsened. The fact that Trudeau ul- least two-thirds of voters could not but not sufficient” determining factor timately won the election, albeit with even vaguely recall a specific prom- in influencing how people will vote, a minority, speaks volumes about the ise that the Liberal, Conservative and because negative impressions can get strength of his personal brand and NDP leaders had made respecting af- in the way. that of his party. fordability. Furthermore, when inter- viewers associated party brand with a hen the parties failed to specific commitment, the attractive- The Earnscliffe move beyond affordabil- ness and credibility of most promises researchers ity and differentiate them- declined in voter assessments. In other commented: ‘Party brand W selves further through innovative words, voters actually thought less of tends to detract from the ideas to address issues that ran deep- a promise when they were reminded er, they left voters seriously wanting it came from a specific party. appeal of almost every promise, but without more substance. But such challenges These research results suggest that the as the evolving nature of work, the flurry of affordability promises be- making sure people future of innovation, and protect- came little more than “white noise” associate the brand with the ing privacy in the internet age while in the campaign and moved votes promise, the promise does strengthening cybersecurity were only marginally at best. Identifying little to influence vote.’ largely ignored by all parties. this “political promise paradox,” the The Liberals hoped the election Earnscliffe researchers commented: would be a referendum on their ap- “Party brand tends to detract from proach to climate change, but the the appeal of almost every promise, Favourable opinions of Andrew Conservatives ceded that issue in the but without making sure people asso- Scheer rose only marginally between campaign. With the exception of car- ciate the brand with the promise, the February of this year and mid-cam- bon pricing, the Conservatives had promise does little to influence vote.” paign, while impressions of Justin an eminently defensible alternative Earnscliffe’s public opinion research Trudeau declined, reflecting his SNC- but they inexplicably refused to en- also sought to gauge the importance Lavalin challenges. Jagmeet Singh’s gage, leaving the field uncontested to of leadership in building support for approval rating jumped in the same the Liberals and costing them votes

Change in Impression of Leader Among 2015 NDP VOTERS 2015 Party Singh 63% 31% 6% Supporters 2015 CONSERVATIVE The plurality of 2015 Liberal voters say their VOTERS 59% 31% 11% impression of Trudeau has worsened. Since Scheer favourability towards the leader and vote intent are highly correlated, it follows that the Liberals have lost roughly the same proportion of their 2015 voters. 2015 LIBERAL VOTERS Trudeau 18% 39% 43% And would you say your overall impression of each of the following leaders has improved significantly, improved somewhat, not changed, worsened somewhat or worsened significantly over the last year or so? Better Neither/DK Worse

Policy 11 in urban areas and among young pro- the-post electoral system and the ef- how to do better next time and present gressive voters. ficiency of their vote, the Liberals’ 33 a plan for building the party beyond While the three top parties fought to percent enabled them to take 46.45 its current limited base. percent of the seats in Parliament— a draw on affordability promises, the The strong showing of the Bloc NDP at least deserves credit for recap- the most skewed election outcome ever seen in Canada. Québécois, which is now a wholly- turing its policy traditions in 2019. owned subsidiary of Quebec’s Coali- After standing for balanced budgets These are substantial changes in voter tion Avenir government, promises and losing 51 of their 95 seats in preference, and they left several casu- a more strident nationalist voice for 2015, this time the party reconnect- alties and difficult issues in their wake. that province in national politics. The ed with its base and presented a set The prime minister inherits a country renewed Bloc presence in the House of truly democratic socialist alterna- whose stress fractures were highlight- represents checkmate on the other tives. The party proposed big spend- ed and exacerbated by the election four parties who should be screaming ing on half a million new child care campaign, presenting some real chal- “foul” against Quebec’s odious Bill 21, spaces and affordable homes, univer- lenges in managing the federation. which makes a mockery of the Cana- sal dental care and interest-free stu- Liberal climate change and pipeline dian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. dent loans, all financed by borrow- policies were strongly repudiated in ing, increases to corporate taxes and Alberta and Saskatchewan, where the fter being all but written off a one per cent “super-wealth” tax on governing party won no seats. But for dead at the start of the people worth more than $20 million. polls show 70+ per cent of Canadi- campaign and with his party While the party lost 15 of its 39 seats, A ans believe that global warming is a facing a widely-anticipated annihila- it can at least claim a moral victory in “very big” or “moderately big” prob- tion by the Greens, NDP leader Jag- returning to its policy roots. lem and 60 per cent support carbon meet Singh redeemed himself with Another way to look at the numbers pricing. Therefore, Trudeau will not an excellent performance. He was us- coming out of October 21 is to com- soon be abandoning carbon pricing er-friendly, passionate and tough but pare the votes for the various parties or withdrawing Bill-69, the new en- graceful in responding to Trudeau’s in 2019 over the 2015 results. The vironmental assessment legislation blackface embarrassment. He might Liberals received 789,000 fewer votes that Jason Kenney has called the “no have saved more NDP seats had he than in 2015, and the Conservatives more pipelines” bill. gotten himself into Parliament soon- increased their support by 540,000 er, but his leadership and standing in After promising in 2015 to patch votes. The Bloc Québécois vote grew his party are now secure. things up with the provinces, Trudeau by 556,000 this year over 2015, and faces the reality that 85.4 percent of NDP support plummeted by 623,000. By any measure, the Green Party cam- Canada’s population is now repre- paign was a disaster. Despite advanced sented by conservative or right-lean- billing, the party came nowhere close ing governments at the provincial The Liberals received to challenging the NDP. The mis- level, and the prime minister spent takes and gaps in its detailed platform 789,000 fewer votes the campaign—day in and day out— caused it to wilt under media and ex- than in 2015, and the personally attacking two prominent pert scrutiny. The election of only one Conservatives increased their Conservative premiers by name. His additional MP was a crushing blow to task of forging consensus around support by 540,000 votes. Elizabeth May and means, as she has common goals among the provinces herself indicated, that this was her last The Bloc Québécois vote and territories will be daunting. rodeo as leader. grew by 556,000 this year Despite chalking up substantial actual In the end, the strategic and policy over 2015, and NDP support and moral victories, Conservative lead- choices made by the leaders and their plummeted by 623,000. er Andrew Scheer emerged from the parties could not raise this campaign campaign damaged by the widespread above the tactical level of a school- belief in his party that given Trudeau’s yard ruckus. Canadians can only track record and personal weaknesses, hope that they can bring more judg- he should have done much, much bet- ment, grace and creativity to the ta- ter on October 21. Scheer can survive ble in governing the country. t 34.4 per cent support, the next April’s leadership review in To- Conservatives won the popu- ronto if he starts with a brutally frank Contributing Writer Geoff Norquay, A lar vote. The Liberals formed post-mortem on the platform, strat- a principal of the Earnscliffe Strategy government with 33.04 per cent na- egies, debate performance and lead- Group, is a former social policy adviser tionally, the lowest proportion for a ership in the campaign. But he must to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and governing party in Canadian history. also convince the party faithful he has communications director to Stephen Due to the distortions of our first-past- learned from his mistakes and knows Harper in opposition.

November/December 2019 12

Justin Trudeau walking to his campaign charter. On board, he went back to the press section section and addressed the fallout from the Blackface story, saying “I’m pissed off at myself” for his lapse of judgment, even as a 29-year teacher as he was on that party night. His apology seemed to work, writes John Delacourt. Liberal strategists then changed the message to Trudeau’s “progressive bona fides” and then to the Liberal Party mantra of “diversity is our strength.” It worked. Adam Scotti photo The Day the Poetry Died: HOW THE LIBERALS SNATCHED VICTORY FROM DISASTER

Political scandals are not, apparently, what they used to John Delacourt be. Even as the unfathomable images of Justin Trudeau n September 18th, bare- in blackface surfaced six weeks before election day, pro- ly a week into the 2019 elec O tion campaign, the Lib- fessionals were hesitating to predict their impact because erals’ chances for re-election were such calculations have been hacked by the unlikely tra- dealt what most presumed would be a fatal blow: photographs and jectories of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson. In the end, a video clip of Prime Minister Jus- Trudeau won a minority government, largely, John Dela- tin Trudeau in blackface emerged, court writes, because the party’s foot soldiers rallied. leaving many, even within the party, feeling that the Trudeau they thought they knew was just a care- fully constructed work of fiction. To address the gravity of the situation

Policy 13 for those working within the Liber- The discovery of Trudeau’s history of appearances in al party headquarters, Jeremy Broad- hurst, the national director for the blackface should have only added momentum for campaign, summoned them all to- Scheer. If past campaigns were any guide, it might have gether and delivered what many even been considered a game changer. described as the moment that reaf- firmed their faith in the leadership when it had never been more at risk. He acknowledged the sense of disap- pointment and betrayal many of the people in that room were feeling and game changer. But, as David Colet- affiliation with anti-abortion activ- did not attempt to dismiss or mini- to of Abacus Research contends, the ists and Scheer’s stance on same sex mize what this ultimately meant for blackface moment was so disruptive marriage, from a speech in 2005, ap- the days ahead. And he affirmed that for both campaign narratives that it peared on Facebook and out in the what they were working for was far dramatically changed the conver- Twitterverse, with posts from Liberal more than getting the leader elected sation among Canadians—to one “friendlies” and candidates. on October 21st; it was about what that, despite the damage that it did they had accomplished over four Going negative is, unfortunately, ef- to Trudeau’s image, actually helped years and what was left to do. As a fective, yet it can also lock a cam- the Liberals. moment of leadership in crisis, what paign into a narrative that leaves Broadhurst had to say was effective. it vulnerable to any opponent who o the prime minister’s cred- The Liberals dug in that much deep- can embody a hope and change nar- er and ultimately pulled off the un- it, such a shift would not rative with greater credibility. There likeliest of election victories. T have been possible without his is an implicit virtue signalling in the acceptance of the gravity of the situ- strategy, an assumption of a mor- That’s one version of this first draft ation. In his first appearance before al high ground by pointing out the of history. There is another, more the media, on the campaign plane a failings of the other party. It was im- complex take on the “blackface mo- few hours after Time magazine pub- possible for the Liberals to deploy ment.” Over the first week of the lished the first photo, Trudeau’s tone the tactic in any great measure from campaign, with the daily cycle of an- suggested he understood the impact that day forward. nouncements from both parties de- these revelations had for those who fining what they hoped to pose as the had seen in him not just a cham- They transitioned from Trudeau’s ballot question, the Conservatives pion but an ally in the struggle to crisis to an issue only tangentially were slowly but effectively gaining make the phrase “diversity is our related to the affordability narrative ground, despite the polls showing strength” more than just a campaign to define themselves favourably: the a deadlocked race. Andrew Scheer’s platitude. And in the course of just a environment. As a wedge issue it was message, as he spoke of taming the few days the focus shifted from the an easy read for most Canadians; the deficit and giving tax breaks to those prime minister’s progressive bona fi- Conservatives floated a vague col- who needed it most, was starting to des to the party’s: specifically, what lection of holding lines on the envi- resonate; the number of Canadians had been accomplished on the diver- ronment in their platform while the who trusted the Conservatives more sity file over the last four years of a NDP and Bloc flatly rejected moving than the Liberals as economic man- Liberal government. If there was any forward with large-scale energy sec- agers was one data point that gave lingering sense of spin or any sudden tor projects. For Conservatives, their the Conservatives reason to be hope- pivot to the Conservatives’ record platform affirmed they were all in ful. This was occurring despite the on diversity in that first appearance, for the commemorative vision of Al- theme of their campaign being not Trudeau’s chances for re-election berta’s boom years. The NDP’s and measurably different from Stephen would have been lost. the Bloc’s environmental planks of Harper’s in 2015. It focused on af- their platform effectively signaled to fordability, the uncertainty and anx- The moment also caused the Liberal Western Canadians and blue Liber- iety middle class families were feel- war room to change tack. Just days als who might lean progressive on ing about their personal debt and before the writs were issued by the many issues that they weren’t real- their prospects for retirement and chief electoral officer, the team’s se- ly interested in governing for them. their children’s education. The dis- nior leadership intimated that they In contrast, Trudeau’s team had the covery of Trudeau’s history of ap- were more than prepared to “go neg- data to support their Goldilocks appearances in blackface should have ative” on Scheer and his slate of can- proach. Internal polling from as far only added momentum for Scheer. didates. And indeed, over the course back as 2015 had confirmed for them If past campaigns were any guide, it of the last few days leading up to that most Canadians were ahead of might have even been considered a the campaign, the Conservatives’ governments in their understand-

November/December 2019 14 likely voters—was the ultimate factor in securing their victories.

It creates no small change in caucus dynamics for Trudeau. The PMO could convincingly make the case for micromanaging caucus back in 2015 by telling themselves it was the leader’s charisma that got the team elected. Now, this reduced and campaign-toughened number of backbenchers on the governing side of the House can credibly state they have earned their place by their own efforts—despite the national campaign team, the war room and the Leader.

The definition of a Pyrrhic victory is one that is managed at too great a cost for the victors. That’s not quite the case for Trudeau, but this election’s result does present a consider- able challenge for the next campaign that might come all too soon: with sunny ways but a memory, how does he build the trust and the political Trudeau waves from the Liberal campaign bus. Oddly enough, his blackface incident allowed the Liberals to go negative on Andrew Scheer’s conservative proclivities on a woman’s right to choose capital to win a third mandate? and same sex marriage. The Liberals got that message out on Facebook and Twitter. Messy but effective, as Delacourt writes. Adam Scotti photo John Delacourt, Vice President and Group Leader for Hill and Knowlton’s ing of the seriousness of the climate faithful to the advance polls, knock- public affairs practice in Ottawa, is a change crisis and the need for the ing on more doors per day than ever former director of communications for federal government to do something before. As it was for Kathleen Wyn- the Liberal Research Bureau and the about it. It may have been hard for ne in Ontario in 2014 (and, not co- author of three books. the Liberals to trumpet their record incidentally, many Wynne Liber- as successful, given the challeng- als were working on this campaign es they’ve faced with the provinces for Trudeau), the focus on the fun- in the implementation of a carbon damentals—good data and multi- tax, and with the COP21 emissions ple touch points for micro-targeting targets. Still, they could claim they were staying the course, and that they were pragmatists and realists in their approach. This reduced and campaign- et while realism and adroit re- toughened number of covery from crises may be nec- backbenchers on the Y essary attributes for a governing party, they can hardly create mo- governing side of the House mentum during an election. “Cam- can credibly state they have paign in poetry, govern in prose” earned their place by their might be the well-worn Mario Cuo- own efforts—despite the mo dictum from elections past, but what if all you have left is the prosa- national campaign team, ic? For many Liberal caucus members the war room and the hoping to be re-elected, it meant you Leader. toughed it out on the ground, identifying the vote, bringing out the

Policy 15

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and his wife Jill on the campaign trail in the final days of the campaign. She and their five kids provided some the best human moments of his campaign. Andrew Scheer Flickr photo Word to Fellow Conservatives: REVIVE THE ‘TORY SYNDROME’ AT YOUR PERIL

Veteran Conservative strategist Yaroslav Baran notes some Yaroslav Baran real lessons to be learned from the 2019 campaign, but wo major questions were left argues that clamouring for Scheer’s head will only back- behind after the dust settled fire on the party he leads. T on election night: how will Prime Minister Trudeau handle West- ern alienation and his absolute shut- out from Alberta and Saskatchewan? And what’s next for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer?

Within days of the election, a handful of internal voices emerged, calling the Conservative campaign a failure. Scratch the surface of those conservative operatives, and you see some

November/December 2019 16 obvious motives: most were key ac- By any normal, objective measure, Andrew Scheer’s tors in the Maxime Bernier leadership campaign, still smarting from de- leadership should be even more secure following feat, and some bitter for having been October 21st: He was one of only two party leaders to gain shut out of the Scheer circle for fail- seats, he enlarged his caucus by a quarter, he knocked his ure to concede the leadership grace- tremendously charismatic and internationally popular fully. That said, some of those voices have a platform. And sometimes, opponent down to a minority, and he actually won the when a small number makes noise— popular vote. and nobody else rebuts—it might just catalyze something, so why not try? But what are the real risks to Scheer’s leadership, and what lessons should be learned from the 2019 campaign? yond the Conservative base, his abil- In analytical terms: the regional and By any normal, objective measure, ity to actually win an election. The demographic divides that stereotype Andrew Scheer’s leadership should be knives were out, with many saying the division between Liberals and even more secure following October “This dog can’t hunt.” Conservatives are becoming more 21st: He was one of only two party pronounced. In practical terms: The The Scheer detractors will point to leaders to gain seats, he enlarged his Conservatives will need to find a way exceptional circumstances: how caucus by a quarter, he knocked his to reverse that shift and appeal to the could he have lost after the SNC-La- tremendously charismatic and inter- GTA, Vancouver, and Quebec if they valin deferred prosecution agreement nationally popular opponent down want to form government. scandal? After #blackface? While easy to a minority, and he actually won to forget 15 years later, similar ques- hat, then are the lessons the popular vote—he got more votes tions were being asked in 2004 in the for Scheer—to both de- than Justin Trudeau. wake of the Sponsorship Scandal— prive his detractors of ox- the revelation of an elaborate kick- W Were the party rank and file disap- ygen, and to broaden his appeal for back scheme to the governing party pointed not to have done better? Cer- the next election? tainly. The only thing worse than los- by Liberal-friendly ad firms placing ing is losing after it felt like you might government-sponsored ads extolling Number one, while he has reconciled have won. Was Scheer equally disap- the virtues of Canada and federalism his personal social conservatism with pointed? You bet. But suggesting this following the 1995 Quebec sovereign- the broader needs of government dog can’t hunt? That’s a fanciful con- ty referendum. Perspective, therefore, and Canadian society, he didn’t find clusion that falls somewhere between is important. Scheer effectively did a a way to articulate that to the public ignoring E-Day results, ignoring the replay of Harper’s move in 2004—ex- until the very end of the campaign. lessons of history, and having an ul- cept he also won the popular vote. It’s not as though Scheer is the first Catholic aspirant to the PM’s job. He terior motive. A sophisticated analysis would peel eventually found the right words, but back that popular vote number and too many people found his earlier ex- n 2004, then-Opposition Lead- see that it also masks some serious re- planations on abortion and same-sex er Stephen Harper accomplished gional distortion. More people vot- marriage ambiguous. The risk there a significant electoral feat. He ed for Scheer than for Trudeau, but I is not so much alienating Canadians squared off against Paul Martin—also if you take the over-efficient Alberta who have a different view (particular- an immensely popular Liberal leader and Saskatchewan out of the equa- ly as there’s nothing to challenge in and prime minister, widely herald- tion, Scheer’s “rest of Canada” popu- his we ain’t going there message); the ed by the punditocracy as heading a lar vote level drops to the high twen- bigger risk is looking uncomfortable political juggernaut that would reign ties. He will have to do better. As in his own skin, and looking uncom- for a generation. Harper knocked that 338Canada.com’s Philippe J. Fourni- fortable discussing certain issues. juggernaut down to a minority, and er points out, “Conservatives in- two years later, replaced it with a mi- creased their vote share in 194 of 338 The second lesson is broadening the nority government of his own. That electoral districts (57 per cent) and policy discourse. Hindsight is always same Harper went on from his ini- lost ground compared to 2015 in the omniscient. In a parallel alternate di- tial 2004 “loss” to win three elections remaining 144 districts (43 per cent). mension, we might very well have and govern as prime minister for However, out of those 144 districts been extolling his strategic genius for nine years. Yet, at the time, immedi- where the Conservatives lost ground, having laser-focused on affordabil- ately after the 2004 election, Harper no fewer than 139 are in Quebec and ity—talking about almost nothing was deluged with questions about his Ontario. The remaining five are locat- else—as the recipe for his 2019 elec- leadership abilities, his saleability be- ed in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.” tion triumph. It was not necessarily

Policy 17 riety of issues. Most are not so passionate about one policy space that it drives their entire voting decision. Most want to see a comprehensive plan—and a leader willing to talk about all aspects of public policy. In the days ahead, Scheer will be con- ducting a post-campaign analysis. These are among the findings he will be encountering. He would be wise to make his post-mortem activities inclusive—with mechanisms of gen- uine input for party members, and even visible meetings in different parts of the country to allow members to have their say. If he does this, he will be not only be fine, but empowered with broader insight and ad-

Scheer increased the Conservative caucus by nearly 25 members, and won the popular vote over vice to do better in 2023. Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. The question, after his first campaign, is what he needs to do differently and better to win the second one. Andrew Scheer Flickr photo Contemporary voters are sophisticated a bad strategic decision. All parties et. That’s bunk. I believe in play to their strengths, and the par- the same approach as Barack people interested in a variety ty’s polling showed that cost-of-liv- Obama: we need to put a hard of issues. Most are not so ing anxieties played to the Tories’ fa- cap on all large final emit- passionate about one policy vour. It just happened to not work. ters, sector-by-sector, and curb space that it drives their The obvious lesson is that voters in emissions. And if they go over entire voting decision. Most many swaths of the country expect their caps, we will force a pen- a fully rounded platform—not one alty—but a penalty that will go want to see a comprehensive that hones in on a single key theme. 100 per cent into new and bet- plan—and a leader willing ter green technology research to talk about all aspects of In fairness to Scheer, he did have a cli- and development. That’s how mate change platform—and even a you fight emissions. That’s public policy. compelling one. The campaign simply how you fight climate change. chose not to focus on that. Imagine Not by punishing consumers— a campaign where the Conservatives by fighting emissions at source, might have run the same affordabili- and spurring more R&D for For those yearning for a leadership re- ty platform—complete with tax credits alternatives.” view, a word of caution: every party for children’s athletics and culture, tax leader has a first campaign. First cam- deductibility of parental leave benefits, he reality is that Scheer put paigns are where one makes mistakes, easier access to home ownership for tremendous effort into his cli- learns, grows, and repositions for a millennials, and so on—but also a ro- T mate plan. When people heard second campaign. It’s where a team bust climate change message that the his plan, they liked it. But the Con- recognizes what it needs to do differ- leader spoke to at every turn: servative campaign chose not to ently the next time around. If impa- “We indeed have a climate highlight it. The leader should have. tient Tories revive the old “Tory Syn- emergency. The difference be- Similarly, the campaign was virtual- drome” of ousting the leader after an tween me and Mr. Trudeau is ly silent on Indigenous policy. This initial kick at the electoral can, they’ll also betrays a blind spot of market that he wants to punish you— guarantee the next election will be research-driven campaigning. It may when you put gas in your car to someone else’s first campaign. be true that Conservatives don’t tra- drive the kids to soccer, when ditionally win elections on their In- Contributing writer Yaroslav Baran, a you buy groceries for your fam- digenous platform, but it is also true principal of Earnscliffe Strategy Group, is ily, when you turn the heat on a former chief of staff to the Government Conservatives lose elections when in winter. And that punishing House Leader in the Conservative Harper they don’t have one. you for those acts will force dif- government. He also ran Conservative ferent choices, and that that In short, contemporary voters are so- Party communications through three will eventually save the plan- phisticated people interested in a va- national campaigns.

November/December 2019 18

The NDP: One More Rung Up the Ladder

After having the progressive rug pulled out from under campaign in which the federal NDP’s vote dropped from 19.71 per cent to it by Justin Trudeau—with an assist from Tom Mul- 15.90 per cent (more than a 20 per cair—in 2015, the New Democratic Party is in a perfect cent drop)? In which the federal caucus was once again decimated, drop- position to build on Jagmeet Singh’s acclaimed camping from 39 to 24 (a 40 per cent paign performance by leveraging the balance of power drop, following the 60 per cent drop in Parliament. in 2015 under Mulcair)? In which the party was heartbreakingly wiped out in Atlantic Canada, save for a personal victory by the redoubtable Jack Har- Brian Topp occupy a far corner of the legislature ris? And heartbreakingly wiped out in to agitate powerlessly for the non-ne- Quebec, save for a personal victory by n 2014, the British Columbia gotiable demands of a group of NGOs. the redoubtable Alexandre Boulerice? NDP met to review a post-mortem They wanted to remove the BC Liberal And wiped out in the GTA without a I report into its 2013 provincial Party from office in a general election single win? And in most of Ontario? election campaign. The party had and to replace it, putting the state to And across the prairies, losing seats in won only 39.71 per cent of the vote work for working people. Saskatchewan that have voted Farm- in that election, and had only re-elect- er/labour-CCF-NDP with few breaks That is what all serious political parties ed all of its sitting MLAs, forming the since the 1920s, save for personal vic- owe voters, in every election. There official opposition. This result, the in- tories in Winnipeg and Edmonton was a happy ending in BC. The party vestigators knew, was totally unac- by rising stars like Daniel Blaikie and added 0.58 per cent to its vote in the ceptable and easily avoidable. In sum- Heather McPherson? And winning mary, the party would have won the 2017 election (scoring 40.29 per cent), only 24.4 per cent of the vote in NDP- election had the campaign not been which just goes to show how much governed BC, losing three seats? directed by an idiot. That idiot wasn’t better you can do when you work with good people. And then they Well, we can guess what the 2013 BC invited to attend, but a few of the del- postmortem and those cheery dele- egates made sure he got the message came into office through a confidence gates in airports would say. But what by shouting at him in airports for a and supply agreement with the BC I’ll say is this: it was actually a pretty few months after these deliberations. Green Party that has given the province a smiling, positive, progressive, good result. Federal campaign direc- That idiot was me, so you’ll under- productive and clean B.C. NDP gov- tor Jennifer Howard—an experienced, stand that I watched all of this with ernment under Premier John Horgan crafty, warm, thoughtful and smart mixed feelings. But there was a lot to that is doing exactly what that party former finance minister from Mani- like about that post-mortem discus- had always hoped to do—put the state toba—and her team made about the sion. Specifically, the determination to work for working people. The econ- best of a brutally bad hand, and played to win. The BC NDP was telling itself omy is booming and the budget is in some very bad cards just about as well that even though it had just brutally excellent shape under Finance Minis- as they could have. Led by some spec- and foolishly gated its popular and tal- ter Carole James. The toughest issues tacular work by Jagmeet Singh, who ented leader, Carole James, and even facing the province are finally being just made the federal NDP his party. though its caucus had split and tem- addressed. Health and education and porarily expelled a third of its mem- n the 2015 election, the NDP the province’s other public services bers on the eve of a campaign year, threw away the Layton legacy are finally in good hands. it still expected to win government. I and returned to third party sta- They didn’t think of themselves as Proving, once again, that insisting tus by promising to continue Stephen the conscience of the legislature. They on victory is exactly right. With this Harper’s austerity policies. The federal weren’t running to stand up for things in mind, what are New Democrats to party then had a choice: it could em- or to ensure a message was heard, or to make of the 2019 federal campaign? A brace and double down on the author

Policy 19 less they kill themselves. Both in BC and at the federal level, the NDP gave that a try—and then did what they had to do to land on their feet, despite their previous best efforts to destroy themselves. And so, the federal NDP went some steps up the ladder before it. The first step up the ladder was to avoid its widely pre- dicted fate, by retaining party status and not being replaced in their spot on the Canadian political spectrum by the Green Party. They kept party status; the Greens remain far from that crucial designation. The second step up the ladder was to elect a sufficiently large and diverse caucus that it could do good political work in Parliament. This caucus is a good one, full of bright, energet- The NDP took a pounding on election night, but it has a crucial swing vote in a minority House ic new MPs in the style of their lead- thanks to what Brian Topp calls a “sparkling leader’s tour” by Jagmeet Singh. NDP photo er, and with pleasingly few hipster- populist, lefter-than-thou candidates of that austerity promise—Thomas hoser-from-Barrie colloquial Canadi- who would have prevented it from Mulcair—or it could remove him and an speaking style, Canadians now give functioning. The third step up the find a better leader. Instead, the fed- Singh the kind of positives they last ladder was to win a balance-of-pow- eral NDP decided to do both simulta- expressed for Jack Layton. er position in a minority Parliament. And unlike Jack Layton and his team neously—repudiating and removing Singh took his offer to Canadians in any of his elections, they did. In Mulcair (the first time in Canadian across the country in a sparkling lead- history a federal party leader has been er’s tour. A desperately improvised, that sense, this 24-member NDP cau- fired by majority vote at a national last-possible-minute full slate could cus is much more empowered, poten- convention), and then foolishly al- not start to make up for four lost tially powerful, and in a position to lowing him to shout his way into serv- years of local campaigning. But they advance government in Canada than ing out most of the term anyway, as were an impressive, young, gender- Layton’s caucuses were. a defeated and then fired parliamen- balanced, and diverse set of candi- Really, that’s pretty nice work. But tary zombie leader. Forgotten, but not dates—like the new NDP caucus that it’s not victory. Victory is winning gone. In the result, the federal caucus Canadians elected and are sending to the election and forming govern- spent almost a full term comatose, as Ottawa. Spinners point to Singh’s de- ment. Having rather elegantly and far as the public could see. Fundrais- bate performance and dignified re- artfully dodged bullets and landed on ing collapsed; candidate recruitment sponse to the Trudeau blackface rev- its feet to general astonishment, the and local campaigning were suspend- elation as defining moments that disheartening desert of that electoral ed… and then this legacy was hand- saved the party and the campaign. I map lies before the NDP. Singh is, es- ed to Jagmeet Singh, finally elected as think he really saved the party a few sentially, back to where Layton was the new federal NDP leader. As I wrote months before, when he released its in 2004—but with a much better par- for Policy before the election, most of platform—a pitch-perfect appeal to liamentary hand. So, having played the party’s core voters, reassuring the negative reviews aimed at Singh his cards superbly well in this cam- them the tribe had not permanently during the early months of his lead- paign, he now needs to do the same lost its mind and had not been intel- ership were premature. The public in this minority Parliament. hadn’t looked at him yet. They would lectually captured by its opponents. Brian Topp is a partner at KTG Public do that during his first campaign. So, New Democrats were pleased to hear Affairs, a fellow at the Public Policy they did. And the people of Canada this; pleased to see a return to the Forum, a director on the board of the like Jagmeet Singh a lot. Having tak- tone of the Layton years—and so the underlying strength and resilience of Broadbent Institute, and is teaching a en a look at his cheerful optimism, course at the Max Bell School of Public the NDP in Canada—and its limits— crackling energy, unembarrassed pro- Policy at McGill University. He served was demonstrated at the ballot box. gressivism, and fascinating combina- as chief of staff to Alberta Premier tion of Sikh garb and smart-lawyer/ Political parties are hard to kill, un- Rachel Notley.

November/December 2019 20

Column / Elizabeth May ‘We Fight On’ t is hard to have any perspective, was unprecedented. Nearly one mil- was only one vote for climate and it writing this less than a week af- lion Canadians participated on Friday, was Green. But the Liberals were able I ter election day 2019. September 27th. to play their usual card: vote Liberal to Some things are clear. The campaign But it only left the generalized impres- avoid the Conservatives. itself was dispiriting. As many com- sion that, like Pride parades, Liberals, Choppy waters lie ahead. My bet is mentators have noted, it was a dirty NDP and Greens marched and the that Justin Trudeau will be able to play campaign. Scheer lied about Trudeau, Conservatives stayed away. For the one of the other parties against anoth- Liberals demonized Conservatives. most part, the national media don’t er to stay in power for at least a two- The award for the most dishonest, understand the issue well enough to year term, choosing a moment of his well-funded campaign goes to the explain, or compare and contrast par- advantage to go back to the polls. It NDP for the carpet bombing of Van- ty platforms. Reporters sort of under- may not be too late in 2021 to make couver Island with attack ads against stand carbon taxes, but, again, for the the massive changes required to pre- the Green Party and me personally. most part, do not understand that the serve a livable world. It will certainly Even my own riding was targeted. science has given us hard and non-ne- be too late by 2023. That is how Greens lost 2-3 expected gotiable constraints that we are not The numbers of seats held by Liber- seats. In the event, we were lucky to permitted to exceed. The “targets” of als and Conservatives leave very little hang on to two seats on the island. all the other parties exceed those con- bargaining room for the Bloc and the straints. They would not keep global At the national level, far too much NDP. Just as Stephen Harper was able warming under control. Failing to un- time and newspaper ink was wast- to do between 2006 and 2011, Liber- derstand the science, the media fail ed on a barrage of tempests in a se- als are likely to find a party to avoid almost completely to explain the ur- ries of teapots. Was Scheer a dual-citi- an election none of them want. zen? How often did Trudeau dress up gency, or to frame the political choic- In my letter to all the other party lead- in black-face? And my own personal es. They tell us it’s the Conservatives ers, I proposed areas of shared con- nightmare—being photoshopped. who are offside on climate—the Liber- als, NDP and Greens together are the cern—at least among the Liberals, It was hard to find the substance. good guys. But in fact, the Conserva- NDP and Greens. We should be able There were not enough leaders’ de- tives, Liberals and NDP all fail, they to make progress on pharmacare, as bates. The strange format of the just fail at different rates. well as on reconciliation and UND- Leaders Debate Commission events RIP. If the Liberals are willing to col- It is urgent that we change course and deprived leaders of an opening or laborate where collaboration makes a exit the fossil fuel economy as quick- closing statement. The effect was of difference, Greens are ready to assist. a very scattered affair, with too many ly as possible. To do so, we need only moderators and too little substance. to face down a hugely profitable and I am grateful to the voters for over Only one debate took place in Eng- powerful industry. But to fail to do one million votes for the Greens and lish with the Prime Minister partici- so, in Canada and globally, means for Paul Manly (Nanaimo-Ladysmith) pating, and two in French, but with the vastly ugly degradation of hu- and Jenica Atwin (Fredericton)—both TVA excluding Greens with the collu- man civilization within the lifetimes of whom will be superb MPs. We are sion of the other three main parties. of our grandchildren, and perhaps an the largest Green Caucus ever elected A ballot issue did not emerge. end to the whole human project in at the national level in a country us- a few more generations. With stakes ing first-past-the-post. I am also look- I called this election a referendum on so high, it is deeply disturbing that ing forward to working with Jody climate. And it may have been. Cer- those facts lay buried in sloppy elec- Wilson-Raybould. tainly, we had more references to the tion rhetoric. climate emergency in the news and in We four have our integrity intact. We interviews than ever before. The elec- here should have been no will be creative, watchful and ready tion coincided with the global climate room for strategic voting, in for any moment when we can make strike, called for September 20-27 to that only the Green platform a difference to advance progress. T We fight on. frame the September 23rd United Na- and Mission: Possible gave us a fight- tions Climate Change Summit. The ing chance of doing our part in avoid- Elizabeth May is the former Leader of size of the marches within Canada ing global climate catastrophe. There the Green Party of Canada.

Policy 21 Quebec’s Split Decision: A Tour d’horizon

Among other takeaways from the results in Quebec rise of the Bloc, this is something that most observers expected at the outset on October 21 is the death of the wave. The province, of the 2019 campaign. The NDP is not traditionally, has been the home of viral voting: deeply rooted in Quebec and, even under the leadership of Quebec-based Mulroney’s 1984 vague bleue, Layton’s 2011 Orange leader Thomas Mulcair, the party lost Wave, Trudeau’s bagging of just over half the the vast majority of its seats at the province’s seats in 2015. This time, the Liberals can 2015 federal elections (16 seats compared to 59 four years earlier). In 2015, say they won the most ridings, but by a narrow two- Mulcair’s principled position on the seat margin over the Bloc Québécois. McGill Institute niqab hurt the NDP in Quebec. This for the Study of Canada Director Daniel Béland year, Jagmeet Singh took a more prag- matic (opportunistic?) position on Bill breaks down the numbers. 21, saying that, under his watch, the federal government would never intervene in the case. Yet that strategic Daniel Béland tonomist form of nationalism, which gesture, and the insistence on the part stresses the need for Ottawa to mind y far the most spectacular aspect of Singh that he shared Quebecers’ its own business and even let the Que- of the 2019 federal election values, did not prevent the freefall fac- bec government gain more powers in in Quebec is the return of the ing the NDP in the province. It is not B key policy areas. Although Premier Le- clear whether another leader, includ- Bloc Québécois to centre stage. Con- gault refused to endorse any federal ing Mulcair, would have been able to sidering they won only four seats in party during the campaign, his warn- 2011 and 10 in 2015, taking 32 seats stop the party’s political hemorrhage ing to party leaders, especially Justin in the province. in the province on October 21 was an Trudeau, not to intervene in the case excellent showing for the Bloc. of the controversial Quebec secular- t the beginning of the cam- ism legislation (Bill 21) helped Blan- This is particularly the case because, paign, many observers and Lib- chet and the Bloc, who could depict under the short and polarizing leader- eral insiders believed the an- ship of Martine Ouellet (March 2017- themselves as the only true defend- A ticipated NDP losses in Quebec would ers of legislation that remains popular June 2018), the party almost fell apart. primarily benefit the Liberals, who among French-speaking Quebecers. This became obvious in late February needed to win more seats in the prov- 2018, when seven of its 10 MPs left Yet, it would be a mistake to reduce ince in order to offset potential losses the party’s caucus to sit as indepen- the return of the Bloc to the debate in Atlantic Canada and Western Can- dents. In January 2019, another for- over Bill 21. In the end, the Bloc also ada. In the end, amid the resurgence mer Parti Québécois cabinet minister, capitalized on the decline of the NDP of the Bloc, the Liberals won only 35 Yves-François Blanchet, became lead- in Quebec, which lost 13 of its 14 re- seats, five fewer than in 2015. Yet, in er of the Bloc by acclamation. In less maining seats there. Most of those part because of their performance in than a year, he helped put the Bloc seats went to the Bloc. To a certain ex- Montreal and Laval, the Liberals did back on track, notably by performing tent, the protest vote that went to the win more seats and popular votes very well during the two French-lan- NDP in 2011 and generated the Or- than the Bloc, which performed much guage debates. ange Wave gradually dissipated and better than in 2011 and 2015 but is Blanchet’s performance is only one the Bloc has now returned to its tradi- not nearly as powerful in the prov- source of the party’s success in 2019. tional role of the main federal opposi- ince now than it was in the 1990s and Another factor is the fact that, during tion voice in Quebec. 2000s. For instance, in 1993, at its first the campaign, instead of emphasiz- The decline of the NDP, which be- federal elections, the Bloc won 49 per ing sovereignty, the Bloc aligned itself gan in 2015, is the other big story of cent of the popular votes and 54 seats with Premier François Legault’s au- this campaign but, as opposed to the out of 75 in the province. In 2004,

November/December 2019 22 leader and founder Maxime Bernier was defeated (by a Conservative) in his Beauce riding, which he had held as a Conservative MP since 2006. Cre- ated only in 2018, the People’s Party lacked the human and financial re- sources to run a serious campaign. Moreover, Bernier’s lackluster debate performances and the relative lack of media attention towards immigration and asylum seekers during the 2019 campaign did not help this right-wing populist party. More generally, in Can- ada, populism, on the left or the right, seems to gather more political support at the provincial or regional level than at the federal level, where it is hard to project a coherent “people” that Ca- Bloc supporters rally in downtown Quebec City. Yves-François Blanchet’s campaign, notably his performance in the French debates, enabled the Bloc to get back in the game. Flickr photo nadians from different backgrounds and parts of the country can identi- the score of the Bloc was nearly iden- The Green Party also performed bet- fy with. And outright opposition to tical (54 seats and 49 percent of the ter in Quebec in 2019 than in 2015, “mass immigration” also sounds like a votes). The 2019 results of the Bloc, al- as far as the level of popular support is non-starter, ideologically speaking. though impressive in light of more re- concerned (4.5 per cent of the popu- Finally, to bring all the pieces of the cent electoral results (2011 and 2015), lar vote or about twice as much sup- puzzle together, the lessons of the pale in comparison. This means that, port as in 2015). Yet, despite the pop- 2019 federal elections in Quebec are although the Bloc is back, the Liberals ularity of environmental protection in found a way to remain slightly ahead Quebec, the Greens failed to generate quite straightforward. First, the Bloc is of it, at least this time around. enough support to win seats there be- back but it is not nearly as strong as in cause of our first-past-the-post system, the 1990s and 2000s. Second, the Lib- Like the Liberals, the Conservatives erals remain strong in Montreal and were hopeful to make some gains in which disadvantages the Greens more Laval but they face major challeng- Quebec at the beginning of the 2019 than any other well-established party. es outside of the larger urban centres. campaign but, once again, the rise of Second, conversely, the Conservatives the Bloc stood in the way of their am- The lessons of face major challenges in the Montreal bition. Perhaps more importantly, An- drew Scheer failed to connect with the 2019 federal region but also in other parts of the Quebecers and his performance during elections in Quebec are quite province, the main exception being the French-language debates proved straightforward. First, the the Quebec City area. Third, in hind- lackluster at best. He also struggled Bloc is back but it is not sight, the 2011 Orange Wave was a to clarify his position on abortion, a one-off event related to the personal- particularly thorny issue in a prov- nearly as strong as in the ity and popularity of then NDP leader ince where support for abortion rights 1990s and 2000s. Second, Jack Layton and not the beginning of is widespread. Moreover, his party’s the Liberals remain strong a new and politically sustainable era weak environmental platform hurt in Montreal and Laval for the party in the province. Fourth, the Conservatives in a province where but they face major small parties like the Greens and the climate change has become such a key People’s Party struggled, in Quebec as issue, especially among younger peo- challenges outside of the elsewhere in the country, in the con- ple. In the end, the Conservatives won larger urban centres. text of a first-past-the-post system that only 10 seats, two fewer than in 2015. clearly disadvantages such parties, for Getting barely 16 percent of the votes, better or for worse. slightly less than in 2015, the Conser- vatives once again struggled in la belle Daniel Béland is the Director of the province, where their only stronghold McGill Institute for the Study of Canada remains the Quebec City area, which nother party that failed to elect- and a James McGill Professor in the has a unique, right-wing political cul- any MPs in Quebec is the Peo- Department of Political Science at ture within the province. A ple’s Party of Canada. Party McGill University.

Policy 23

Brian and Mila Mulroney as he wins the Central Nova byelection taking him to the House as Progressive Conservative leader in 1983. In the leadership campaign his constant refrain was of the Liberal hold on 100 ridings across Canada with a 15 per cent Francophone vote: “You give Pierre Trudeau a head start of a hundred seats and he’s going to beat you 10 times out of 10.” A year later, Mulroney swept French Canada and won the biggest landslide in Canadian history. Toronto Public Library Photo Minority Rights, Bill 21 and the Election

In all the post-election talk about the country being re- Graham Fraser gionally divided, the good news is that the divisions hen Brian Mulroney was were largely attributed to economics and ideology, not running for the leader- W ship of the Progressive language. But as former official languages commis- Conservative Party in 1983, one of sioner, prolific author and longtime Globe and Mail his arguments to potential Tory del- egates was that there were over 100 Quebec and Montreal Gazette correspondent Graham ridings in Canada with more than a Fraser writes, minority rights are always a story beneath 15 per cent French-speaking popula- the numbers. tion. “You give Pierre Trudeau a head start of a hundred seats, and he’s going to beat you ten times out of ten,” he repeated, night after night. It worked. He not only won the leadership; a year later, he won the largest majority in Canadian history.

November/December 2019 24 Thirty-five years later, the percentag- Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s shelving of plans for es may have changed somewhat, but outside Quebec’s 78 seats, there are a French-language university in Ontario, while still some 20 seats across the country there are three English-language universities in Quebec, where the Francophone vote is a sig- has not contributed to better understanding of the nificant factor. Stephen Harper knew respective challenges the language minorities face. that and embraced official bilingual- ism, which enabled his Conservative Party to win seats like Glengarry- Prescott-Russell in eastern Ontario in 2006 and St. Boniface, in Manito- ba, in 2008. Act. With the government activity roundtable organized by the FCFA Justin Trudeau’s Liberals also un- occurring in the winter and spring, on the modernization of the Official derstood that. Trudeau’s own grasp only months before the election, it Languages Act. of language policy was sometimes was hard to avoid thinking that the Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet shaky—when he was criticized for exercise was as much about assur- had his own message to minority responding in French to a question ing Francophone minorities that the in English about the absence of men- communities after he led his party to Liberals had not forgotten them as tal health services in English in Que- 32 seats in Quebec, telling them that it was about preparing for the intro- bec’s Eastern Townships, his first the Bloc is an ally. “I am asking, in duction of new legislation. response was to say he answered a all friendship with the precious Eng- question in French in Peterborough In fact, all of the parties endorsed lish community of Quebec that is so in English. Nevertheless, the French- the modernization of the Act, ensur- rich in culture and so close in friend- speaking minority communities un- ing that this was not a major point ship, to support our wish that the derstood that the Liberal Party was of contention during the campaign. Franco-Canadians and the Acadians a more comfortable and supportive The Liberals were simply more be- enjoy the same rights and privileg- home for them. lievable on the issue. The Conser- es that the Anglo-Quebecers have in vatives did their own share of mi- Quebec,” he said in his declaration So, in 2015, the Liberals swept At- nority messaging. In his appeal to the day after the election. lantic Canada, including all of the Quebec voters, Andrew Scheer in- Acadian seats, won back Glengar- Since the current Quebec govern- cluded a promise to create a tribu- ry-Prescott-Russell, Sudbury and St- ment has been handing over Eng- nal that would judge institutions Boniface, and captured Edmonton lish schools to French school boards that were in breach of the Official Centre, home of the Campus St-Jean, and discussing the abolition of all Languages Act—one of the measures the French-language campus of the school boards, this is somewhat dis- called for by the FCFA. And New University of Alberta. As a result, the ingenuous. But Ontario Premier Democrat François Choquette tried Standing Committee on Official Lan- Doug Ford’s shelving of plans for a to fill the role that Yvon Godin, the guages of the House of Commons French-language university in On- Acadian firebrand and former New was filled with government mem- tario, while there are three English- Democrat from Acadie-Bathurst, had bers from minority Francophone language universities in Quebec, played in defence of minority lan- constituencies: Darrell Samson from has not contributed to better un- guage rights. Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, Paul derstanding of the respective chal- Lefebvre from Sudbury, Dan Vandal But to no avail. Choquette fell to a lenges the language minorities face. But minority Francophone repre- from St. Boniface and Randy Bois- Bloc Québécois candidate, as did the sentatives were appreciative. Marie- sonnault from Edmonton. two Quebec Conservatives who had Claude Rioux, director-general of the been the most active on the language Fédération acadienne de la Nouvelle- his year marks the 50th an- file, Alupa Clarke and Sylvie Bouch- Écosse (FANE) applauded Blanchet’s niversary of the Official Lan- er. But two Conservatives who were comments, noting that he had indi- guages Act, and to honour elected in ridings with a French-lan- T cated he would defend the interests the occasion, the House and Sen- guage community have both dem- of Francophones and Acadians as ate committees, the Fédération des onstrated knowledge of the issues. well as the interests of Quebec. Communautés Francophones et Aca- Chris d’Entremont, elected in West dienne (FCFA) and the Minister of Nova, is the former minister of Aca- There has been a facile interpretation Tourism, Official Languages and La dian affairs in the Nova Scotia gov- of the Bloc victory to the effect that Francophonie all organized round- ernment and James Cumming, who it is entirely due to Quebec’s Bill 21, tables, conferences and consulta- defeated Randy Boissonault in Ed- the legislation that prevents public tions on the modernization of the monton Centre, participated in the employees, including teachers, from

Policy 25 wearing obvious religious symbols, gault’s Coalition Avenir Québec. Duplessis sent 50 members of Par- such as crosses, kippas or, more to And while Bill 21 is popular, Que- liament as part of John Diefenbak- the point, hijabs. This was certain- becers feel even more strongly that er’s sweeping majority in 1958, the ly a factor; in Montreal and Laval, the rest of the country should not be 32 Bloc members are both inspired where immigrants actually live and telling them what to do. and constrained by the Legault man- work peacefully with everyone else, And Blanchet ran a masterful cam- date. Their success is part of a return the Liberals virtually swept. Only paign. Calm, smooth and articu- to old-fashioned French-Canadian one New Democrat, deputy leader late—in contrast with his nickname, nationalism, supported by the CAQ, Alexandre Boulerice, survived. Goon, acquired when he was a Parti the Bloc and a chorus of columnists Québécois member of the National in the Journal de Montréal. The Bloc surge Assembly—he adroitly managed to History doesn’t repeat itself, Mark happened in rural distinguish between his sovereignist convictions and his autonomist Twain reputedly said, but it often and small town Quebec: the mandate. (Had Andrew Scheer han- rhymes. This election was an echo of heartland of François dled the abortion and same-sex mar- 1962, when 26 Créditiste MPs from Legault’s Coalition Avenir riage issues as skillfully, he might be Québec reduced the Diefenbaker Québec. And while Bill 21 is prime minister). government to a minority. In the next election, Justin Trudeau will ei- popular, Quebecers feel even Quebec Premier François Legault ther regain a majority, as his father has found the same sweet spot that more strongly that the rest did in 1974, or be dismissed, as John Union Nationale Premier Maurice of the country should not be Diefenbaker was in 1963. In both Duplessis located and used so effec- cases, support from French-speaking telling them what to do. tively: a conservative nationalism voters proved to be critical. that stresses Quebec identity and au- tonomy rather than independence. Graham Fraser, former Commissioner And Blanchet has slipped into his of Official Languages from 2006-16 is wake, opposing federal interference a senior fellow at the Graduate School in Quebec jurisdiction and Que- of Public and International Affairs he Bloc surge happened in bec affairs, but acknowledging that at the University of Ottawa and the rural and small town Quebec: independence is not on the agen- author of Playing for Keeps: The T the heartland of François Le- da for the foreseeable future. Just as Making of the Prime Minister 1988.

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November/December 2019 26

Column / Jean Charest Back to the Future

know that headline seems like an tage in facilitating the governance of must do two things. First, it must go easy conclusion but how else the country. to great pains to respond to the out- could we describe the outcome of I First, Canadians have seen minority come of the election by acknowledg- the federal election campaign? governments before and most of the ing to the Canadian electorate that Before going off into all sorts of direc- time enjoy the fact that they are con- they accept their decision and that tions, we should put the result of this strained in their ability to govern. Peo- they get the message. Canadians will election campaign in a historical con- ple like the idea that the government want to know whether they have text. The first thing to keep in mind and the opposition parties will be been heard or whether it’s going to is that it is not unusual in Canadian forced to cooperate and work togeth- continue to be business as usual. On politics that the federal government er with a view to obtaining consensus. this matter, Trudeau is the lead. In in power eventually ends up with, as politics, humility is always perceived Second, the government can greatly interlocutors, a majority of provincial as a great virtue. benefit from the advantage of lower governments led by parties of a dif- expectations on its ability to deliver. The second thing to do is to define ferent persuasion. This means that the government can- what it means to be a minority gov- In fact, it seems to be the rule. Ca- not be easily blamed for whatever is ernment. The government will need nadian voters, whether by instinct or going wrong and yet if the govern- to rapidly choose its priorities and in- otherwise, do not like to put all their ment is apt or good at the art of gov- form Canadians on how they intend eggs in the same basket. This is nor- erning, it can take credit for whatever to work with the opposition parties. mal, and in many instances, it is to is going right. Defining early and in clear terms the benefit of Canadians that there Third, this also represents a new and what his minority government will be some form of implicit checks and major opportunity for the premiers do, how they will work with the op- balances. to step up and fill the void. I know position, the premiers and other On regional tension, we are also deal- from experience that this is easier said stakeholders will determine their ul- ing with the reality of living within than done. Even with the creation of timate fate. one of the most decentralized federa- the Council of the Federation, there In the end, it’s all about defining tions in the world. There will always is not a lot of history of the premiers what it means to be a minority, con- be some level of friction between being able to reach across their own trolling expectations and then set- both levels of government. borders to present a common front ting the right tone. It comes with the reality of living on issues of provincial interest and within a country that is geographi- national importance. Jean Charest was a minister in the Mulroney government and then leader cally vast, founded by First Nations, An exception to this history was the of the Quebec Liberal Party and premier then the French and the English, successful 2004 Health Accord ne- of Quebec from 2003-2012. He is now with a diverse population that shares gotiated between the newly created a partner at McCarthy Tétrault LLP, common values but sometimes has Council of the Federation and the with an international law practice. different interests. minority government of Prime Min- What varies from one period to an- ister Paul Martin. For the record, the other is the level of intensity of re- accord of 2004 received the political gional tensions and the ability of support of the Conservative opposi- the central government to manage tion led by none other than Stephen these issues. Harper and the NDP.

he fact that we have a minor- n the short term, the new mi- ity government, if well man- nority Liberal government of T aged, can actually be an advan- I Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

Policy 27

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau outside the House of Commons on January 30, 2018, confirming Canada’s recognition of the United Nations International Decade for People of African Descent, an announcement that, Tiffany Gooch says, came three years late. “It is clear,” writes Gooch, “that there is still much work to be done to educate members of Parliament from all parties, the media, and the public about the Black Canadian experience and necessary actions moving forward.” Adam Scotti Photo

Beyond Blackface: Repairing the Legacy of Anti-Black Racism

The story of Justin Trudeau’s performance history in black- Tiffany Gooch face shook his campaign and generated headlines glob- hen Ahmed Hussen was ally. For Black Canadians, the question of racial justice first elected as a Liberal is much bigger than a single scandal. Halfway through W member of Parliament in 2015, I sang the Sam Cooke classic the United Nations Decade of People of African Descent, A Change is Gonna Come at his com- Liberal strategist Tiffany Gooch writes, the serious work munity celebration in York South- of the Trudeau government should start today. Weston. During his introduction, I said Black Canadians from South- western Ontario to Nova Scotia were celebrating, and in many ways we were. The Black Caucus on Parlia- ment Hill was growing in numbers and strength, and it was an exciting time to see momentum building on

November/December 2019 28 issues that had yet to receive the po- The three-year-late announcement to recognize litical prioritization they deserved. the UN Decade for People of African Descent was Black parliamentarians, supported difficult to watch. As it finally happened, the prime by Black staffers and public servants minister’s speech did not elicit a single member of the over the last four years, put forward media present to ask a question related to the an intentional effort to partner with and amplify the work of grassroots announcement. The disrespect was so glaring I thought organizations across Canada advo- there was a glitch in the online feed I was watching. cating for recognition, justice, and development within the context of the United Nations Internation- al Decade for People of African De- scent. Hussen himself brought forward blind hiring pilot programs and bers of Parliament from all parties, continue to refine and activate Cana- made history as Canada’s first Soma- the media, and the public about da’s official recognition of the Inter- li refugee serving in the role of min- the Black Canadian experience and national Decade, there is an oppor- ister of Immigration, Refugees and necessary actions moving forward. tunity to reflect on progress toward Citizenship—a challenging portfolio As deeply disappointing as it was implementation of ministry-by-min- in today’s global political climate. to see photos of the prime minister istry recommendations made over dressed in blackface, the discourse the last few years and continuation What began as an endeavour to en- of this election served as a powerful of the plan to move forward. sure Black leaders travelling to Ot- reminder of the need to ensure our tawa to attend Black History Month education systems across the coun- events were able to have meaning- try are equipped (and motivated) to Among the next ful meetings with political influenc- teach Black Canadian history. steps must be a ers became a strategic effort to provide a baseline understanding to all The frustration was amplified by formal apology for members of Parliament about the re- those who have never before shown institutional racism in alities of anti-Black racism in Can- concern about the improvement of Canada, accompanied by an ada, the International Decade and the lives of Black Canadians sudden- action plan outlining opportunities ahead for Canadian ly finding themselves outraged by reforms to the Canadian participation. the scandal of the week. justice system. The three-year-late announcement It was the words of Toni Morrison to recognize the UN Decade for Peo- that put the work ahead back in fo- ple of African Descent was difficult cus: “The function, the very serious to watch. As it finally happened, function of racism is distraction. It the prime minister’s speech did not keeps you from doing your work. It elicit a single member of the me- keeps you explaining, over and over There is, of course, no singular solu- dia present to ask a question relat- again, your reason for being. [...] tion to dismantling anti-Black rac- ed to the announcement. The dis- None of this is necessary. There will ism in Canada. Within the context respect was so glaring I thought always be one more thing. of the International Decade, I hope there was a glitch in the online feed to see the federal government con- I was watching. What kind of fund- y family found their way tinue to engage and consult meaning would match this commitment? to Canada in search of ingfully with local Black communi- Why had it taken so long for Can- freedom five generations ties across the country. The roots of ada to sign on to the Internation- M ago. My great-great grandfather, Jer- this work run deep and activists who al Decade? Since we started late, have grown it from the ground up would we consider extending the emiah Harris, fought for the Crown should be respectfully joined rath- Canadian recognition of the Inter- in the Upper Canada Rebellion of er than dictated down to. And while national Decade past 2024? There 1837. My grandfather served our consultation is necessary, it should was a missed opportunity to hold country in World War II, only to re- be understood that from a regional the government accountable for the turn to a community where he and promises being made. his children would face (and fight) perspective, Canadians are having racial discrimination looking for very different discussions about an- It is clear, following the recent fed- work and celebrating said freedom. ti-racism work. While cities like To- eral election, that there is still much Change has been a long time com- ronto and Hamilton are carrying out work to be done to educate mem- ing. With another five years ahead to the implantation of local anti-rac-

Policy 29 ism strategies, some municipalities ties to increase our international aid recognition of the International De- haven’t even posed the question. commitments and identify ways to cade, what will we have to say? find alignment between our Interna- The African diaspora in Canada is re- tional Decade strategy and Canada’s I expect, at least, that the prime min- markably diverse. While there has global impact. I also hope that in ister will not make the same mistake been a lot of work carried out in re- this fresh mandate, we will see clear- he made in 2015 by omitting Black cent years to connect the dots be- ly assigned ownership of anti-Black leaders from his inaugural cabinet tween regional and intergeneration- racism work and International De- while promoting and celebrating its al movements, there is still much cade recognition implementation, historic diversity. The Black mem- work to be done. A necessary start- as well as more Black staff in senior bers in his caucus carried out an es- ing point is the collection of com- leadership roles. Businesses across sential role in both his first mandate prehensive disaggregated race-based sectors, post-secondary education data across government to provide and re-election campaign respond- institutions, think-tanks, and noting to the needs of Black Canadi- evidence to inform future policy de- for-profit networks can each identi- ans. Perhaps, over time, through in- cisions. There is further need for an fy ways to strategically support this tentional will and follow-through, intersectional anti-Black racism lens work as well. Following years of ad- the prime minister will earn the en- to be applied to existing government vocacy efforts by groups across the policies. Among the next steps must country, it’s time to see more urgen- dorsements that rolled in from Black be a formal apology for institutional cy behind the implementation of leaders across North America in the racism in Canada, accompanied by these initiatives. days leading up to the election. an action plan outlining reforms to the Canadian justice system. The year 2024 may feel very far away Perhaps, over in a minority government situation, There are opportunities for the min- time, through but I hope all parties can come to an ister of Heritage to truly support intentional will and agreement over what success looks Black Canadian historical institu- like as Canadian recognition of the tions—including Black churches— follow-through, the prime UN Decade for People of African De- nationalize Emancipation celebra- minister will earn the scent continues. tions, and think meaningfully about endorsements that rolled how to support the spaces where in from Black leaders Tiffany Gooch is a Toronto-based Black Canadians meet, celebrate, Liberal strategist and writer. and educate, beyond the month of across North America in February. Provincial governments the days leading up to the have a role to play, particularly in election. reviewing and identifying promising practices developed primarily by Black teachers in Nova Scotia and Ontario to improve outcomes for Black students and ensure the curric- ulum is truly reflective of Canadian In a statement commemorating the Black history. launch of the International Decade, former UN Deputy High Commis- And as all levels of government take sioner for Human Rights Flavia Pan- action on gun violence, allocation sieri said: “The road to a world free of funding should prioritize com- from racism, prejudice and stigma is munity well-being initiatives over rocky. Combating racial discrimina- increased police budgets. We should tion is a long-term effort. It requires further ask ourselves thoughtfully commitment and persistence. Peo- how much of the proclaimed do- ple of African descent need encour- mestic and international feminist agement and support. Member states policy shifts are reaching women of have the moral and legal obligation African descent. to provide sustained political and financial backing to make the Decade anada has an opportunity effective and to continue our path to take our global leadership toward equal and just societies.” C to the next level and ensure our actions match our words. I hope When Canada reports back to the we can find agreement across par- UN on our actions made during our

November/December 2019 30 Post-Election Economic Landscape: A Minority Report Card

With the 2019 federal election result producing a mi- crystal clear where the major spending changes will come from, but even nority Liberal government that will likely be supported the Liberals were projecting larg- on key confidence questions involving spending priori- er deficits in the coming years compared with this year’s budget, and ties by the New Democratic Party, Canada is set to con- that was before any specific demands tinue the deficit spending of the past four years. Other- from other parties. For example, the wise, as BMO’s Doug Porter and Robert Kavcic write in Liberal campaign pledges were projected to widen the deficit to $27.4 this post-election BMO briefing adapted for Policy, the billion for FY20/21 (or about 1.2 per markets took the outcome in stride. cent of GDP), and then narrow only modestly to $21.0 billion by FY23/24. That compares with an expected deficit this fiscal year of $19.8 billion (or Douglas Porter deal, partly because many issues in the 0.9 per cent of GDP) and just $14.0 and Robert Kavcic two platforms overlap nicely. For ex- billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) reported ample, both parties are in line on the in the FY18/19 public accounts. hile the Liberal minority carbon tax; both are looking to crack Meantime, the Liberal platform outcome on October 21 down further on non-resident owner- doesn’t appear to include the cost of may have surprised some, ship in real estate; they’re each seek- W a national pharmacare program, a key financial markets had largely been ing to expand pharmacare; both want NDP demand, and one on which the braced for a minority government to cut cell phone bills; and, neither Liberals would likely be willing to co- since the day the election was called sees any need to balance the budget. operate. The cost of such a program in mid-September, so the broad-brush But, it will likely take more to earn could run in excess of $10 billion per outcome was expected and market re- NDP support, with the party outlining year. Other likely NDP demands, such action was muted. priorities during the campaign that as dental care, housing investments Canada has a long history of dealing included a wealth tax, national dental and student loans could run around with minority governments, of vari- care program, elimination of subsidies $4 billion, offset partly by closing ous stripes, most recently with three to the oil sector, and waiving interest loopholes or possibly even some form different versions spanning from 2004 on student loans. Of course, the ruling of wealth tax. to 2011. Typically, markets and the party need not accept every demand, The de facto fiscal target of this gov- economy are driven by much bigger but that’s a rough initial take on what ernment had been a stable debt/GDP global forces than domestic political might be on the table. All told, if that’s ratio (of just over 30 per cent)—that’s considerations. The main point is that how the support lines are drawn, the not going to hold with deficits of the we are likely dealing with somewhat first budget could look a lot like past magnitude we’re now likely to face less clarity on policy, and key econom- Liberal budgets, but with spending in coming years. While there is noth- ic issues are expected to be dealt with commitments and deficits scaled up a ing magical about the 30 per cent lev- on a case-by-case basis. There will be few more notches even beyond those el, a rise in the debt/GDP ratio would plenty of horse-trading ahead of next laid out in the Liberal platform. weaken Ottawa’s fiscal position head- year’s budget. The first real sense we’ll ing into the next downturn, leaving get on that front will be the govern- Here are a few of the key implications them less room to maneuver and pos- ment’s throne speech, when it sets out we can draw for the economy, some sibly leading to a loss of Canada’s cov- its priorities, and will be treated as a sectors, and financial markets: eted triple-A status down the line. confidence issue. It’s highly likely that we will see a While, theoretically, any party can further net loosening in fiscal poli- he Liberal platform included support the Liberals, the NDP are the cy—i.e., a wider budget deficit—with roughly $2 billion of net tax consensus first choice to step up and a minority government. It’s not yet T increases by FY21/22, includ-

Policy 31 responsive to budget deficits in most cases these days—witness the plunge in U.S. Treasury yields in the past year, FISCAL FISCAL even as the U.S. budget deficit forged YEAR 2019 YEAR 2020 higher to nearly $1 trillion (or over 4.5 $19.8 $27 per cent of GDP). Budget deficit billion billion* The Canadian dollar managed to strengthen during the course of the Deficit to GDP 0.9% 1.2% election campaign and in the days af- Projected GDP ter, partly due to the fact that markets 1.5% 1.7% growth had long since assumed a minority government outcome, and partly due *From Liberal Election Platform. Source: BMO Financial Group. to fundamental factors. First, the U.S. dollar has weakened moderately in recent weeks as the tone around the Brexit negotiations and trade with China has improved. Second, mostly firm Canadian domestic data—es- ing a 10 per cent luxury tax on vehi- could lift GDP by roughly 0.4 per- pecially on housing and jobs—have cles, planes or boats above $100,000, centage points by that time. Howev- markedly reduced odds of the Bank and closing various loopholes. er, that could be offset by a dimmed of Canada trimming interest rates outlook for the energy sector, height- The NDP will surely look to increase anytime soon. ened business caution, or somewhat taxes on higher-income earners or Looking ahead, we expect global fac- wealthy Canadians. Their proposed 1 higher interest rates than would oth- tors to dominate domestic political per cent wealth tax (a possible stick- erwise be the case. We will not fine- considerations, which may otherwise ing point for support) would apply an- tune our growth outlook for Canada be a modest dampener on the curren- nually to those with net worth great- until we get more clarity on broad cy. On balance, we are slightly con- er than $20 million. Higher corporate spending and budget plans from the structive on the loonie despite the tax rates, top marginal rates and cap- new government. We are currently political backdrop, with oil prices ex- ital gains taxes were also featured in expecting growth to be 1.5 per cent pected to hold in the mid-$50 range, their platform, and could be alterna- this year, and pick up slightly to 1.7 Canadian interest rates holding at the tives. There’s no certainty that these per cent in 2020. The small improve- proposals will be accepted, but a few ment next year is driven by: 1) less high end of the range among major may receive a long look from Finance drag from oil production cuts in Al- economies, and a less negative tone in to help pay for some of the big-ticket berta, 2) a firmer housing market; the U.S./China trade battle. spending plans. and, 3) modest fiscal stimulus that There’s not much to move the needle was in place even before the election. A Liberal/NDP mandate could see a on equities broadly, as growth con- much more active involvement in cerns, interest rates and oil prices are housing markets in a bid to improve looser fiscal policy and the po- much bigger factors. And, unlike the affordability. The NDP proposal to tential for firmer growth could cannabis sector in 2015, there’s no “create” a half million affordable units A keep the Bank of Canada on apparent big winner from this result. over a decade (50,000 per year) would hold for longer. With most major On the flip side, both the Liberals and boost annual housing starts by about central banks cutting interest rates NDP have actively endorsed cutting one quarter, so it’s a material pledge. recently, or preparing to cut further, cell phone bills. What form that takes But the question is: how can that be the BoC is highly unlikely to step in (i.e., through regulation, subsidies or accomplished, and would it involve the opposite direction. We look for more competition) is unclear, but is subsidizing builders or buyers? If the rates to stay steady for the foresee- something to watch in the telecom latter, the boost to demand could neu- able future, with an easier fiscal poli- sector. Finally, for the energy sector, tralize the restraining effect on prices cy (i.e., larger budget deficit) provid- it would clearly be a net loser if Trans of new supply. ing the stimulus instead. Mountain faces any further delay, as As a standalone development, a loos- For bond yields, larger budget deficits that project is an anticipated relief ening in fiscal policy would tempo- than previously planned and the re- valve for Alberta crude supplies and rarily lift GDP for a spell, on rough- lated ramp-up in borrowing require- Western Canadian Select prices. ly a one-for-one basis. So, a rise in ments may put some slight upward Douglas Porter is chief economist and the budget deficit to around $30 bil- pressure on Canadian yields versus Robert Kavcic is a senior economist with lion (or 1.2 per cent of GDP) by 2021 others. Still, bond markets are barely BMO Financial Group.

November/December 2019 32

Money Matters: Fiscal Performance and Minority Governments

Given the degree to which fiscal commitments reflect the tion. As Conservative opposition leader Stephen Harper warned Prime Min- existential priorities of any government, what happens ister Paul Martin in 2004, “If you want to the process of allocating funds to those priorities in to be a government in a minority Par- liament, you have to work with other a minority government context? It requires a juggling people.” In this environment, govern- act of navigating political tension, reconciling political ing parties need to beware of motions survival vs. Parliamentary viability and embracing col- of confidence. By convention, all money bills are issues of confidence. laboration as way of life. Money matters.

The good news, from a fiscal perspective, all parties made explic- it or implicit commitments to fis- Kevin Page and in Canada that a governing party will cal sustainability notwithstanding Mélyne Nzabonimpa form a government while receiving the small (Liberal and Conserva- less than 35 percent of the national tive) vs. big agenda platforms (NDP amuel Butler, the iconoclastic popular vote. Not to mention having and Greens). If you like game theory English author, said “Life is no representation from two of Cana- and politics, a minority parliament S the art of drawing sufficient con- da’s western provinces. can be a source of entertainment. clusions from insufficient premises.” The Conservative Party, the official Most Canadians don’t get hung up The premise in many heads in Cana- opposition yet again, ran a campaign by parliamentary procedure whether da is that minority governments can with a policy agenda similar to the in majority or minority parliament. be unstable and unpredictable, while Liberals, focused on improving af- There is risk however, that Canadi- majority governments imply steadi- fordability for Canadians but with a ans grow increasingly disenchanted ness and predictability. Minority gov- stronger plank of fiscal prudence (i.e., if their newly elected representatives ernments, however, are becoming in- get back to budget balance). The NDP fail to address fundamental econom- creasingly common. Since 1867, we and Greens launched very ambitious ic, social, security and environmen- have had 14 minority governments, and progressive policy agendas (high- tal policy issues. four of which have emerged in the lighting health, education, housing, Considering the evidence, it turns out last 15 years. With the 2019 election First Nations and climate change), majority governments do not nec- over and the business of governing but requiring historic increases in tax essarily outperform minority ones. about to begin in a minority Parlia- revenues. The Bloc Québécois agen- In Canada, while the data generally ment, it is worth considering what da, not surprisingly, focused on pro- point to lower legislative productiv- lessons can be learned from expe- moting the interests of Quebec and ity in minority parliaments, the dif- rience—good, bad and ugly—from called for enrichment to intergovern- ferences are not overwhelming and Canada and across the world, on how mental transfers. political scientists often point to con- best to improve legislative and fiscal textual factors to explain the differ- The secret sauce of governing in a mi- performance in this context. ences (e.g., the presence of scandals, nority Parliament is confidence. Get- high levels of partisanship, etc.). The next parliamentary session will ting legislation passed, including bills play out in a politically divided and tied to budget implementation, will The high-water mark for legislative diversified House of Commons. Is this depend on political support from op- performance in Canada (perhaps un- the new normal? If so, is it necessar- position parties. In Parliament, you der majority and minority rule) was ily bad? The Liberals received the low- can govern as long as you have the Prime Minister Pearson’s two consec- est percentage of the national popular confidence of the majority of mem- utive Liberal minorities in 1963 and vote of a governing party in Canadian bers of the House of Commons. It is 1965. A productive political consen- history. This is only the second time known as the Confidence Conven- sus resulting in historic legislation on

Policy 33 health care and pensions. Modest lev- ity governments do seem to perform opponents, even in the short-term. If, els of partisanship and Prime Minis- better in systems where minorities are on the other hand, as with Pearson’s ter Pearson’s strong diplomatic skills more common, with practices such as Liberal governments, the governing were credited as critical factors for interparty cooperation incentivized party is open to cooperation and ac- success. through experience. If political rep- commodation, and is willing to move resentatives think minority govern- its policy agenda to the “middle”, leg- Globally, the evidence suggests that ments are the exception, they are less islative performance improves. practice makes things better. Minor- incented to work with their political On fiscal matters, the evidence is mixed across the globe. There are studies that confirm a deficit bias in TABLE 1: Pseudo Budget 2020 The Entire Liberal 2019 Electoral Platform minority governments, while others do not. Like legislative productivity, fiscal performance can come down PROJECTION to specific factors and strategies. A re- $ billions unless otherwise indicated 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 cent study by Niklas Potrafke, Fiscal PBO Pre Election Baseline Performance of Minority Governments: Projections Budgetary Balance* -20.7 -23.3 -15.4 -12.5 -11.2 New Empirical Evidence for OECD coun- Economic and Fiscal Developments tries, 2019, suggests that deficits and since the PBO June Forecast ? ? ? ? ? public expenditure can be smaller un- Policy Actions der minority than majority govern- SPENDING ments, if minority governments work More help for families with kids with potential partners and choose under one – -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 the least costly policy alternatives. Making PSE more affordable – -0.2 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 By contrast, fragile minority govern- Strengthening public health care – -0.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 ments are more susceptible to run- Increasing OAS by 10% for seniors ning higher deficits. They are under as of age 75 – -1.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 pressure to bargain with opposition CHRT Ruling on First Nations parties to get budget bills passed. The children -2.5 – – – – weaker bargaining position makes Other actions – -3.1 -4.9 -4.9 -4.8 them susceptible to choosing more expensive policy options and to defi- REVENUE cit financing. No matter the issue, the Helping Canadians keep more of message is clear: collaboration drives what they earn – -2.9 -3.9 -4.9 -5.7 better outcomes. Collaboration, how- New tax expenditure and government spending review – 2.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 ever, is a learned skill that must be incentivized and practiced. These mes- Cracking down on corporate tax loopholes – 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 sages apply equally to government and opposition parties. Making multinational tech giants pay their fair share – 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 Speculation tax on vacant hat does all this mean for residential property – 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 a possible governing strat- 10% luxury tax – 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 W egy for a Liberal minority government? We have five princi- Self-Financing EI Measures – 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 pal expectations for the new govern- Trans Mountain expansion project – 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 ment and Parliament. One, we expect Total Policy Actions -2.5 -4.1 -8.3 -9.3 -9.8 the Liberals will implement their 2019 Public debt charges -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 (costed) electoral platform in Budget Budgetary balance -23.2 -27.5 -24.2 -22.6 -22.2 2020. Yes—one entire platform in one Adjustment for risk -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 budget. Politically, it is very low prob- ability the government will fall in its Final budgetary balance (with risk adjustment) -23.2 -30.5 -27.2 -25.6 -25.2 first budget. History suggests the average duration of minority parliaments Federal debt (per cent of GDP) 31.0% 31.2% 31.1% 31.0% 30.9% is about two years. Moving quickly on implementation of the platform fo- Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. cused on improving affordability al- *A negative number implies a deterioration in the budgetary balance (lower revenues or higher spending). A positive number implies an improvement in the budgetary balance (higher revenues or lower spending). lows the government to claim it can Sources: Electoral Liberal Platform, Finance Canada and Parliamentary Budget Officer be trusted to deliver on its promises. In

November/December 2019 34 addition, the Conservative Party ran Fourth, on electoral reform, the new too weak of a rule to guide budgets on a platform targeting similar issues. Liberal government should consid- in a minority setting where political er launching a citizen assembly as pressures to use deficit financing will Two, a key transition discussion is tak- highlighted by grassroot organiza- be greater. (See Chart 1). Note the up- ing place now behind the scenes be- tions like Fair Vote Canada. Elector- ward drift to the projected debt-to- tween the incoming government and al reform was a major policy failure GDP ratio since Budget 2019. A more public service. It is imperative that of the previous Liberal government. complete fiscal strategy could include the legislative agenda and fiscal strat- The time has come for citizens and fiscal targets based on (nominal) bud- egy are woven together. We need pol- experts to tell our elected represen- get balances; rules that limit (deficit) icy development and potential im- tatives what kind of electoral system spending; contingency reserves to ad- plementation strategies on a range of we want for Canada. Electoral reform dress risk; and annual fiscal sustain- issues. Policy choices and trade-offs has strong support from people who ability analysis. need to be made in the context of a voted for the NDP and Green Par- credible fiscal strategy that is realistic, ty. As U.S. President Woodrow Wil- uilding on fiscal reform, there prudent, transparent and responsible. son once famously said, “if you think is an opportunity to strength- Third, on policy issues, the new Lib- too much about being re-elected, it is B en expenditure management eral government should give due con- very difficult to be worth re-electing.” systems and Parliamentary fiscal over- sideration to launching expert panels Finally, on improving fiscal perfor- sight. Both the Liberals and Conser- to bring evidence, ideas, recommen- mance, the new Liberal government vatives called for spending reviews in dations and transparency to (multi- should consider the development of the 2019 electoral campaign. All par- partisan) parliamentary committees a fiscal charter, in collaboration with ties, including the Bloc, called for rev- as early as the fall of 2020. All ma- opposition parties, to outline prin- enue integrity measures to promote jor policy issues highlighted across ciples of fiscal management in good tax compliance, reduce tax gaps and political parties in the 2019 electoral times and less good times, as well as generate much needed tax revenues. campaign should be considered—in- budget constraint targets and rules Recommendations for system-wide cluding climate change, pharmacare that will work in a minority parlia- reforms like the 2012 Operations and Estimates Committee Report on Esti- and dental care, review of the Canada mentary context. The concept of a mates Reform under NDP Chair Pat Health Act, education, housing, pub- fiscal charter has recent roots in oth- Martin have largely fallen by the way- lic infrastructure, First Nations affairs er Westminster parliamentary sys- side under majority governments less and tax reform. All parties should tems such as the United Kingdom interested in strengthening parlia- contribute to the development of the and Australia. mentary accountability. In a minority terms of reference for the policy re- The current Liberal fiscal rule of a de- Parliament, prospects could be much views. The reviews should be con- clining debt-to-GDP ratio, while sup- brighter for strengthening fiscal per- ducted in a way that promotes prog- ported by the NDP and Green Party in formance by better aligning financial ress and collaboration. the 2019 electoral campaign, is likely and non-financial (performance) information and improving transparen- CHART 1: The Problem with a Fiscal Constraint Rule Based on a cy. Both are needed to strengthen fis- Declining Debt-to-GDP Ratio cal discipline.

There is a need to change the way 32% we govern, if minority parliaments are going to get things done. The key words to live by are compro- 31% mise; long-term policy focus; and cit- LIBERAL ELECTORAL PLATFORM izen engagement. There are sufficient 2019 PROJECTION 30.9% premises and lessons from Canada 30% demonstrating that minority parliaments can be effective. Our elected officials have the opportunity to 29% show us how it’s done.

FEDERAL DEBT (%GDP) Kevin Page, former Parliamentary Budget Officer, is President of BUDGET 2019 PROJECTION 28.6% 28% the Institute for Fiscal Studies 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 and Democracy at University of Ottawa. Mélyne Nzabonimpa is an FISCAL YEARS undergraduate economics student at University of Ottawa.

Policy 35

Column / Don Newman Monsieur Blanchet’s Tour de Force ake a bow, Yves-François Blan- the Bloc. In that election, support for the car, but he is in the front seat. chet. In the federal election the Bloc collapsed and it all went to And he has brought his map. on October 21st, you changed the NDP. That year, the party won T The return of the Bloc Québécois has the political landscape in Canada 59 seats in the province, propelling some people worried about the resur- by changing the political landscape it to Official Opposition status in the gence of separatism in Quebec. Those in Quebec. House of Commons. worries are overstated. For the most Almost singlehandedly, you have By 2015, things were partially return- part, Quebecers realize they have the revived the Bloc Québécois, taking to normal. The Trudeau-led liber- best of both worlds; a Canadian pass- ing it from 10 seats to 32 and mak- als won 40 seats in Quebec and the port, access to the world as Canadi- ing it the third largest party in the NDP were down to 15. Then came ans, and something close to sover- House of Commons. You blocked this election. In addition to the 32 eignty association at home. Besides, the Trudeau Liberals’ hopes of gain- Bloc seats, the Liberals won 34 and with the examples of Brexit and Cat- ing more seats in Quebec to make up the Conservatives, 10. And the NDP? alonia in Spain, they have evidence for seats they knew they would lose Just two elections after the “Orange of just how difficult leaving can be— in other parts of Canada. Today, Jus- Wave” and the 59-seat breakthrough, particularly when any potential gains tin Trudeau is still in power, but he the NDP managed to save only one are marginal or non-existent. is now in charge of a minority gov- seat in the province. But the re-emergence of the Bloc ernment that cannot alone control Québécois does mean that, if its ap- the House of Commons, and instead o, you might think the NDP and parent popularity endures, it will be has to search for at least one party its leader would be livid at the harder for other pan-Canadian par- to partner with on votes to get any- Bloc and Blanchet. Not really, S ties to form majority governments. thing done. although the party is almost wiped out in Quebec, the NDP finished this The implications for that are far- While some Quebec groups are chal- election with 20 seats fewer than in reaching and as yet uncertain, al- lenging the province’s secular cloth- 2015 and surrendered third place in though for the NDP perhaps less un- ing law—which was played as a lit- the Commons to the resurgent Bloc. settling than some others. mus test during the campaign—in But occasionally you can win by los- We will have to wait to see how the courts, most francophones sup- ing, and for the NDP this is one of that scenario will work out. But port the legislation and see it as those times. Because of the results in the meantime, take a bow, Mr. a legitimate way of maintaining in Quebec, the Liberals are now in Blanchet. their culture. For NDP Leader Jag- a minority and the NDP’s remain- meet Singh, a turban-wearing Sikh, ing 24 seats are just what they need Policy columnist Don Newman is the law should be a particular per- to get legislation through the Com- Senior Counsel at Navigator and sonal affront, although for political mons and to control Parliamentary Ensight Canada and a lifetime reasons and the hope of support in committees. member of the Parliamentary Quebec, he and all the party leaders Press Gallery. soft-pedalled their opposition dur- That means that even in their di- ing the campaign. minished circumstances, the NDP will have more clout in the House But there can be no soft-pedalling of Commons than at any time since the political impact of the Blanchet 1973 and 1974. That is the last time resurgence of the Bloc of recent his- a Liberal prime minister named tory. In the election of 2011, it was Trudeau found himself in a minority the sudden emergence of Jack Layton situation and had to turn to the NDP and the NDP in Quebec that over- for support. Now, history is repeat- night lead to the virtual oblivion of ing itself. Singh isn’t exactly steering

November/December 2019 36 Canada and the World

Britain’s existential Brexit crisis hit the streets in October, with an election now on the political calendar for December 12. For the U.K., it could be a defining moment of nationhood in peacetime.Wikipedia photo Brexit: A Rationale, Not a Defence

As the United Kingdom braces for an election that will Jeremy Kinsman presumably be a de facto referendum on Brexit, former synonym for political chaos Canadian ambassador to the U.K. Jeremy Kinsman writes and confusion. To ardent ad- A vocates in a divided and em- that, whatever odds London’s famous bookmakers are of- bittered Britain, it represents a no- fering, hold your money on the outcome. ble and historic national cause. Opponents fear it will reduce the United Kingdom’s stature, prosper- ity, and even size, tempting Scot- land and Northern Ireland to defect from what they see as English nativ- ism. Polls indicate most in Britain regret the way the 2016 referendum amounted to a careless leap in the dark, a simplistic binary choice then

Policy 37 Prime Minister David Cameron pre- The tortured saga at least provides a valuable sumably didn’t think he would lose and hardly tried to win. cautionary tale to others in the EU itself where populist nationalism has also been fueled by After three years and four months of confusion, conflict, delay and mul- identity issues. tiple failures to agree on how to exit the European Union, Parliament has decided on a general election De- cember 12 that citizens hope can end the nightmare of stress, division agreement until a no-deal Brexit bill ects such as the Schengen common and uncertainty. was off the table, Corbyn then joined travel space, the euro and the Euro- Having earlier lost his working main. Under-35s, looking to their future, pean social contract. U.K. motivation jority in the House of Commons overwhelmingly support “remain” for joining the European Community and been repeatedly rebuffed by Par- parties. Over-55s, perhaps out of nos- in the 1960s was almost exclusively liament and the High Court, Prime talgia, overwhelmingly support the mercantilist. Once in, the U.K. gener- Minister Boris Jonson sought Parlia- Tories and “leave.” Hold your bets on ally resisted further deepening of sub- ment’s tentative backing in principle the outcome. stantive EU cooperation beyond com- for a new exit deal. But the principle merce, while promoting accelerated was conditional on acceptance of op- s the Brexit saga part of a glob- widening of EU membership, thereby position amendments seeking a non- al populist trend? Or is it a polit- diluting the union, and the weight in member relationship to the EU closer I ical phenomenon specific to it of Germany and France. Yet, over than hardline Brexiteers who’ve hi- grievances felt in the British Isles? time, British officials became a vital jacked the Conservative Party could Brexit supporters do share some force inside the EU system. The EU bear. EU ex-partners, over their Brex- grievances felt by anti-establishment sailed more strongly internationally it remorse and keen to re-focus on re- voters elsewhere, over immigration, because of U.K. membership, as did forming the bloc to meet the expec- and feeling left behind economical- the U.K. because of the leverage the tations of its 450 million remaining ly, especially in comparison to Lon- EU provided. citizens, agreed to a final extension of don elites. But Tony Blair, originally an EU ad- Article 50, the divorce mechanism of vocate, chose to line the U.K. up with the Treaty on European Union, until But the primary driver is specifically the U.S. by fronting the phony U.S. January 31. British, or more accurately, English, individualism, enveloped in an over- case for the catastrophic 2003 joint in- So, Johnson, who has opened up a arching cloak of “identity”—the gut vasion of Iraq. He thereby aggressive- surprising lead in the polls, wants feeling the English just aren’t Euro- ly opened an EU split between “old” the election to win an outright par- pean by history or social inclination. Europe which mostly deplored this liamentary majority, enabling him to U.S./U.K. war of choice, and “new” “Get Brexit Done” his way. But the The historic postwar European politi- Europe, ex-Soviet bloc entrants more Fixed-Term Parliaments Act of 2011 cal project to end the continent’s mur- inclined to look to the U.S. for secu- stipulates a two-thirds majority to derous wars never resonated the same rity. After Blair’s reputation in Britain call a snap election. Distrusted in Par- way in Britain, where culture provides plummeted, Labour entrusted new liament as a flip-flopping exhibition- a constant bath of nostalgic and of- leadership to the most “un-Blair” ist, Johnson’s blithe self-confidence ten mythic dramatizations of the dis- “old Labour” hands available—even- merits discounting. He has over- tinct British winner’s role in WW II. tually Jeremy Corbyn’s—accelerating played every hand he has held since This may explain Cameron’s reticence polarization of U.K. politics and the party faithful chose him for PM based in the referendum campaign to praise evisceration of the centre, the place on his apparent winnability. the historic merits of the EU project. where compromise thrives. By ignoring its epochal and existential But he won support to proceed De- achievement of pooling sovereignty Despite Britain’s robust separation of cember 12 from the third-party Lib- for the common good, he gave Brex- powers, Johnson attempted to push eral Democrats and the Scottish Na- it opponents a free run to depict it as through a harsh Brexit. He was sty- tionalists both of which support a threat. They called for reclaiming mied by parliament and the High “remain” and see themselves trend- “control”—of “our own borders, cur- Court. His hints at a populist Brexit ing as refuges for voters repelled by rency, and laws.” election campaign for the people and both Opposition Leader Jeremy Cor- against London’s elitist institutions byn’s truculent “old Labour” social- The reality is that Britain had kept seem inspired by the populist author- ism and by the Conservatives’ right- control, having opted out of com- itarian playbook. Hope persists that wing nationalism. Having withheld munitarian and ambitious EU proj- an election, and if necessary (if John-

November/December 2019 38 Dominic Cummings, or Matteo Salvi- ni, to vaunt political competition as a form of war between antagonistic sides. It has been a recurring and de- structive theme since populist plebs faced off against elitist tribunes in the earliest days of the Roman Republic. Canadians believed our political culture was immune to nativist populism. The surge of identity politics via the Bloc Québécois probably does have more to do with Canadian regional specificity.

Boris Johnson, Britain’s third PM in as many years, takes his idea of country to the voters on Our courts retain authority and cred- December 12, having been defeated in the House on his Brexit timeline. Andrew Parsons Flickr photo ibility. Inclusivity still reigns as Can- ada’s over-arching civic theme, and son fails to win a majority), a second sentative democracies vitally erect to anti-immigrant messages got little referendum will restore the body pol- prevent excessive executive control— traction in our election. Federalism itic’s ability to compromise, which a robust parliament, independent provides a check and balance against the Brexit crisis eroded. courts, and a vigilant press. over-powered majority regimes in Ot- Whatever happens, relationships in- tawa. But if untreated, reanimated side the country, and with ex-Euro- The U.S. is Western alienation could prove tox- pean partners (with which a more undergoing a similar ic, especially if provincial leaders are difficult negotiation on a new rela- tempted to run against Ottawa in the tionship lies ahead), will likely suf- collision between an style of European national leaders who fer. But the tortured saga at least pro- expansive, impulsive, habitually ran at home against Brus- vides a valuable cautionary tale to populist and nationalist sels, undermining public support for others in the EU itself where popu- executive and Congress, in a the EU itself. The election’s minority list nationalism has also been fueled government outcome is an opportuni- by identity issues. divided society, amplified by ty to strengthen our democratic insti- a distorted social media tutions and processes, especially after In the transitional post-Cold War environment that fosters a derisive and negative campaign. 90s, former members of the Sovi- et bloc sought to fill the void left by disrespect for traditional One Canadian check and imbalance communist evacuation by nationalist centres of expertise, cries out for repair. The Liberal major- recourse to ethnic solidarity, old val- authority, and even scientific ity government elected in 2015 mar- ues and cultural traditions. At first, evidence. A decisive political ginalized Parliament, over-empower- Western capitals and the early, hu- ing a ham-handed Prime Minister’s manistic post-communist leaders ra- battle is underway Office, including at the expense of tionalized the look to the past as a ministerial authority. We need a co- nation-rebuilding phase that would operative parliamentary culture, espe- pass. But opportunistic populist pol- cially to contribute usefully to a con- iticians exploited the emotive na- sortium of like-minded democracies tionalist wave, gaining power via di- (hopefully including Britain) to de- Obviously, the U.S. is undergoing a visive majoritarian and often ethnic fend liberal internationalism against similar collision between an expan- and sectarian messaging to “the peo- populist nationalism. It can’t be done sive, impulsive, populist and nation- ple.” Under a banner of “democratic just by signaling our virtuous demo- alist executive and Congress, in a illiberalism,” Hungary’s Viktor Orban cratic credentials. As for the U.K., Can- divided society, amplified by a dis- stoked opposition to immigrants, de- ada needs to show outsiders and our- torted social media environment that nouncing oversight by a secular and selves that our democracy works. fosters disrespect for traditional cen- remote EU hierarchy he maintained tres of expertise, authority, and even Policy Magazine contributing writer kept the country down. scientific evidence. A decisive politi- Jeremy Kinsman is a former Canadian Beyond the EU, populist strongmen cal battle is underway. ambassador to Russia, the U.K. like Erdogan, Duterte, Bolsonaro, and the EU. He is affiliated with and, of course, Putin, ditched ideol- t’s fashionable in the popu- University of California, Berkeley, ogy in favour of personal power, hob- list political world, for protag- and is a distinguished fellow of the bling the checks and balances repre- I onists like Trump, Steve Bannon, Canadian International Council.

Policy 39 Book Review

able, it is increasingly tenuous. As increasingly reserved for middle-to- noted sportswriter Sean Fitz-Gerald high-income families. Even at lower (of the website The Athletic) observes levels, as Sean writes: “An all-day in his timely, meticulously-reported camp on a PA day can cost $100 (and) new book, Before the Lights Go Out, a March break camp can cost about as support at the minor hockey level much as a round-trip plane ticket to is melting as surely as, well, ice on somewhere warm.” outdoor rinks in this era of climate Many families abandon the sport change. For years, the number of early, or don’t start at all. At a school participants in programs across Can- of 400 students less than a kilometre ada has been declining, while enrol- from the Petes rink, minor hockey ment in soccer and basketball soars. officials asked one day how many The reasons include changing demo- youngsters were playing competitive- graphics, prohibitive equipment and ly. The answer: none. To welcome Pe- enrolment costs, and concern over terborough’s many new Canadians, the game’s physical hazards (espe- the Petes offer 50-100 free tickets to cially concussions). games. Many go unused. The most Twilight of a The book’s narrative is driven by a loyal attendees are longtime residents National Game season in the life of the Peterborough over age 50, and resistant to change. Petes of the Ontario Hockey League, On-ice, there is little evidence of the one of the most iconic junior fran- multicultural society Canada has be- Sean Fitz-Gerald chises in Canada. The descriptions come; the overwhelming majority of and anecdotes will resonate with ev- players are white. Before the Lights Go Out: Inside eryone who has ever spent endless a Game on the Brink. Toronto: hen there is a newish contender hours in countless rinks, as player, for the title of coolest sport: bas- McClelland & Stewart, 2019 coach, or parent (all three in my case). T ketball. The Toronto Raptors’ NBA ti- The book is notable for its sometimes Review by tle win last season united Canadians Anthony Wilson-Smith elegiac tone, evidence of the author’s on a scale and scope that, as many love for the game and people within. observers noted, a Stanley Cup win Sean, inevitably known as ‘Fitzy”, is a by any of the country’s seven NHL ew Canadian symbols pack more beer league player, hockey dad, and teams would not have done. F power than hockey. Its influence coach of his young son. (Full disclo- is everywhere, ranging from classic fic- sure: I read his manuscript pre-pub- What does that say about the future? tion (Roch Carrier’s The Hockey Sweat- lication and consider him a friend). Overall, as Sean writes: “That bond er) to art (Ken Danby’s At the Crease) His descriptions of conditions on an (with hockey) is loosening, and that to music (the Tragically Hip’s ‘50 Mis- overnight bus full of sweaty, noisy, is not a bad thing.’’ With the rise sion Cap’ and Tom Connor’s ‘The amped-up 18 and 19-year-olds en of the Raptors, he adds, “there is a Good Old Hockey Game’). Or con- route to or from road games will basketball net in our backyard, but sider politics, where participants in- bring nods of recognition, chuckles, for now, hockey will be what crams clude a retired star (Ken Dryden) who and involuntary shudders. us together in the car for midwinter became a cabinet minister; at least two drives across town.” players (Red Kelly and Howie Meeker) he author chose Peterborough That is one of the unchanging ritu- who served as MPs while still players); T as his focus because of its stature als of the game that participants and the Senate, where members have as a hockey town. It is also, he notes, complain about but also cherish. included another retired star (Frank a famously average “Canadian test Step into a minor hockey rink, and Mahovlich); a Stanley-Cup winning market for consumer goods and po- you feel that time has fallen away, coach (Jacques Demers); and even litical policy.” As such, the challenges and an enduring memory of your the owner of an NHL team—Hartland faced by the Petes—and the game— youth lives on. For many people, Molson of the Montreal Canadiens. are replicated in countless communi- the game’s unchanging qualities Not to mention Jean Béliveau—who ties, large and small. are among its greatest charms. But turned down an offer from Jean Chré- Hockey, as author Roch Carrier ob- they are also, amid the fast-changing tien to become Governor-General— serves in an interview in the book, is country that surrounds it, among its’ and a former prime minister (Stephen now so expensive that it “has cut it- greatest challenges. Harper) who wrote a learned book self from the people who could bring Contributing Writer Anthony Wilson- about hockey while in office. something.” A year of Triple A—the Smith, president and CEO of Historica But while the game’s hold on the highest caliber of minor hockey—can Canada, is a former editor-in-chief of Canadian psyche seems indisput- easily cost $10,000. The game is thus Maclean’s.

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Ensemble, nous menons les Canadiens vers un avenir durable

La voie productive La voie écologique La voie économique La voie collective

Avec un accès Wi-Fi gratuit, Notre destination commune : En avançant ensemble, on En connectant plus de 400 com- des sièges spacieux et des un avenir durable. En choisis- donne un coup de pouce au munautés au Canada, on permet à bornes de rechargement à sant le train, vous contribuez portefeuille des Canadiens. près de 4,8 millions de voyageurs portée de main, vous serez à bâtir un Canada plus vert. de se rapprocher des personnes aussi confortable qu’au bureau. et des endroits qu’ils aiment.

Liaison Nombre Distance Temps Temps Coût du voyage Coût du voyage Économies pour de départs productif non productif en voiture** en train le contribuable par jour en train en voiture* (à partir (voyage en train)*** de seulement)

Ottawa Toronto Jusqu’à 20 450 km 4 h 25 min 4 h 46 min 487 $ 49 $ 438 $

Ottawa Montréal Jusqu’à 12 198 km 1 h 50 min 2 h 21 min 230 $ 37 $ 193 $

Ottawa Québec Jusqu’à 8 482 km 5 h 39 min 4 h 47 min 510 $ 49 $ 461 $

Toronto Montréal Jusqu’à 13 541 km 4 h 49 min 5 h 39 min 583 $ 49 $ 534 $

Les employés du gouvernement du Canada sont admissibles à un rabais de 10 % sur leurs voyages personnels réservés auprès de VIA Rail. Les employés du gouvernement du Canada peuvent profiter de tarifs spéciaux pour leurs voyages d’affaires réservés par l’entremise des Services HRG de voyage partagés. Le rabais ne s’applique ni aux tarifs Évasion ni à la classe Prestige. * Donnée issue d’une application de voyage en date du 22 mars 2019, à 17 h. ** Le coût du voyage en voiture est calculé selon la formule suivante : coût en $ du voyage en voiture (taux de 0,58 $/km établi par le Conseil du trésor pour l’Ontario pour une voiture conduite par un employé du gouvernement X distance parcourue) + frais en $ d’employé gouvernemental (taux horaire moyen d’un employé gouvernemental de 48 $/h selon un salaire de 100 000 $ par année, y compris les avantages sociaux X durée du voyage) = coût total en $ pour le contribuable. *** L’économie pour le contribuable associée aux voyages en train est calculée selon la formule suivante : coût en $ du voyage en voiture – coût en $ du voyage en train = économies en $ pour le contribuable. Les tarifs et les conditions peuvent changer sans préavis. MC Marque de commerce propriété de VIA Rail Canada inc.

Policy November/December 2019

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ABB Ad-POLICY Magazine.indd 1 2019-06-14 10:19 AM An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada

Dear Prime Minister,

Re: A Public Policy Issue that will be supported by all Parties HEALTHCARE Your 2020 budget presents a great opportunity to introduce a measure that would stimulate an estimated $200 million in charitable donations every year and is supported by hospitals, social service agencies, universities and arts and cultural organizations across Canada. If the owner of private company shares or real estate sold the assets to an arm’s length party and donated the cash proceeds to a charity within 30 days, the donor would be exempt from capital gains tax, the same treatment as currently applies to gifts of listed securities.

Although you have a minority government, we are confident that all of the opposition parties would be supportive of this measure. Thomas Mulcair, who was leader of the NDP in 2015, was publicly supportive of this measure in the 2015 Western General & Hospital FoundationToronto budget. Gilles Duceppe, when he was Leader of the Bloc Québécois, was supportive of removing the capital gains tax on gifts of listed securities prior to the 2006 EDUCATION budget. He understood that 2/3 of the fiscal cost of these donations was borne by the federal government and only 1/3 by the Quebec government. Obviously, the Conservatives would be supportive of this measure because it was included in their 2015 budget prior to the election of that year. Also, the non-partisan Special Senate Committee on the Charitable Sector recommended this measure in its June 2019 report.

The case for this measure is compelling. It removes an inequity in the current Income Tax Act as it provides the same tax treatment for donations of all appreciated capital assets – listed securities, private company shares and real estate. Any concern about valuation abuse is addressed by the fact that the donor must University of British Columbia sell the asset to an arm’s length party. The measure removes a barrier to charitable giving and enables hundreds of thousands of small business owners to give back to SOCIAL SERVICES their communities and support those in need, as well as the millions of Canadians that benefit from the services provided by our not-for-profit organizations.

It would strengthen your government’s relationships with all the provinces and municipalities. 2/3 of the modest fiscal cost is borne by the federal government and 1/3 by the provinces and no cost to the municipalities. Provincially funded hospitals and universities would benefit from increased charitable donations and all not-for-profit organizations in our cities would benefit with no fiscal cost to the municipalities. Including this measure in your 2020 budget would send a positive message to all Canadians, which is timely given the fact that the MPs for each party are concentrated in certain provinces. United Way Greater Toronto

Thank you for your consideration. All Canadians would be grateful.

Yours truly,

Donald K. Johnson, O.C., LL.D. cc: Mr. Andrew Scheer, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada Mr. Jagmeet Singh, Leader of the NDP Party of Canada M. Yves-François Blanchet, Chef du Bloc Québécois Ms. Elizabeth May, Leader of the Green Party of Canada