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FINAL REPORT Development of Risk Models for Florida's Bridge Management System (Reuters) Contract No. BDK83 977-11 John O. Sobanjo Florida State University Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 2525 Pottsdamer St. Tallahassee, FL 32310 Paul D. Thompson Consultant 17035 NE 28th Place Bellevue, WA 98008 Prepared for: State Maintenance Office Florida Department of Transportation Tallahassee, FL 32309 June 2013 Final Report ii Disclaimer The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), or Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Final Report iii SI* (MODERN METRIC) CONVERSION FACTORS APPROXIMATE CONVERSIONS TO SI UNITS SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL LENGTH in Inches 25.4 millimeters mm ft Feet 0.305 meters m yd Yards 0.914 meters m mi Miles 1.61 kilometers km SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL AREA in2 Square inches 645.2 square millimeters mm2 ft2 Square feet 0.093 square meters m2 yd2 square yard 0.836 square meters m2 ac acres 0.405 hectares ha mi2 square miles 2.59 square kilometers km2 SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL VOLUME fl oz fluid ounces 29.57 milliliters mL gal gallons 3.785 liters L ft3 cubic feet 0.028 cubic meters m3 yd3 cubic yards 0.765 cubic meters m3 NOTE: volumes greater than 1000 L shall be shown in m3 SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL MASS oz ounces 28.35 grams g lb pounds 0.454 kilograms kg T short tons (2000 lb) 0.907 megagrams (or Mg (or "t") "metric ton") SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL TEMPERATURE (exact degrees) oF Fahrenheit 5 (F-32)/9 or (F-32)/1.8 Celsius oC SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL ILLUMINATION fc foot-candles 10.76 lux lx fl foot-Lamberts 3.426 candela/m2 cd/m2 SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL FORCE and PRESSURE or STRESS lbf poundforce 4.45 newtons N lbf/in2 poundforce per square inch 6.89 kilopascals kPa *SI is the symbol for the International System of Units. Appropriate rounding should be made to comply with Section 4 of ASTM E380. (Revised March 2003). Final Report iv APPROXIMATE CONVERSIONS FROM SI UNITS SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL LENGTH mm millimeters 0.039 inches in m Meters 3.28 feet ft m Meters 1.09 yards yd km kilometers 0.621 miles mi SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL AREA mm2 square millimeters 0.0016 square inches in2 m2 square meters 10.764 square feet ft2 m2 square meters 1.195 square yards yd2 ha Hectares 2.47 acres ac km2 square kilometers 0.386 square miles mi2 SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL VOLUME mL milliliters 0.034 fluid ounces fl oz L Liters 0.264 gallons gal m3 cubic meters 35.314 cubic feet ft3 m3 cubic meters 1.307 cubic yards yd3 SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL MASS g Grams 0.035 ounces oz kg kilograms 2.202 pounds lb Mg (or "t") megagrams (or "metric 1.103 short tons (2000 T ton") lb) SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL TEMPERATURE (exact degrees) oC Celsius 1.8C+32 Fahrenheit oF SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL ILLUMINATION lx Lux 0.0929 foot-candles fc cd/m2 candela/m2 0.2919 foot-Lamberts fl SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL FORCE and PRESSURE or STRESS N Newtons 0.225 poundforce lbf kPa kilopascals 0.145 poundforce per lbf/in2 *SI is the symbol for the International System of Units. Appropriate rounding shouldsquare be inch made to comply with Section 4 of ASTM E380. (Revised March 2003). Final Report v Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Development of Risk Models for Florida's Bridge Management System June 2013 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. John O. Sobanjo and Paul D. Thompson 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Florida State University Paul D. Thompson Department of Civil Engineering Consultant 11. Contract or Grant No. 2525 Pottsdamer St. 17035 NE 28th Place, BDK83 977-11 Tallahassee, FL 32310 Bellevue, WA 98008 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Florida Department of Transportation Final Report Research Center, MS 30 July 2010 – July 2013 605 Suwannee Street Tallahassee, FL 32310 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes Prepared in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration 16. Abstract Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) has been actively implementing the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Pontis Bridge Management System (BMS), recently renamed AASHTOWare Bridge Management (BrM), to support network-level and project-level decision making in the headquarters and district offices. This system is an integral part of a Department-wide effort to improve the quality of asset management information provided to decision makers. With the success of FDOT‟s previous research efforts, it was necessary to extend bridge management tools and processes to an area that is receiving increasing attention nationally: risk management. The state of Florida is exposed to risk on its bridges from many natural and man-made hazards, including hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding and scour, and wildfires, as well as advanced deterioration, fatigue, collisions, and overloads. This study developed a comprehensive framework and components of a risk model for these listed hazards. For each hazard, historical data were utilized to develop risk assessment models which predicted the likelihood of such events and also quantified the consequences of the hazard event. Sources of data with several years of recorded events included the following: the Department‟s databases on bridge inventory and inspection; District‟s records of damage after hazards; NOAA‟s climatic data; FEMA; and the Florida Department of Forestry. The research identified the types of bridges (design type and material type) and specific bridge elements that are most vulnerable to damage under the hazard events. The overall risk model was used to identify the top 20 bridges that are most vulnerable under each of the hazard types. Finally, recommendations are presented as well as modifications to the Project Level Analysis Tool (PLAT). 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Bridges, risk, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, scour, This document is available to the public through the deterioration, fatigue. National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia, 22161. 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 298 Final Report vi Acknowledgements The authors wish to express their sincere appreciation to the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for funding this research, especially to Mr. Richard Kerr, the Project Manager. Special thanks are also extended to the FDOT District State Maintenance Engineers for their support and provision of pertinent information, and to the Florida Department of Forestry for providing the historical data on wildfire events in Florida. Final Report vii Executive summary The FDOT has been actively implementing the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Bridge Management Software (BrM) to support network-level and project-level decision making in the headquarters and district offices. The BrM, formerly known as Pontis, is an integral part of a FDOT-wide effort to improve the quality of asset management information provided to decision makers. The credibility and usefulness of this information is also essential for satisfaction of the requirements of the Government Accounting Standards Board Statement 34 (GASB 34) regarding the reporting of capital assets. Previous FDOT research has identified analytical needs for implementation of the economic models of the BrM, and has made significant progress in the development of these models. With the success of these research efforts, it was necessary to extend bridge management tools and processes to an area that is receiving increasing attention nationally: risk management. Incorporation of risk assessment and risk management is now being nationally recognized as an improvement to the Pontis. The bridges in the state of Florida are exposed to risks from many natural and man-made hazards, including hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding and scour, and wildfires, as well as advanced deterioration, fatigue, collisions, and overloads. At the beginning of this study, a review of the current management tools within the FDOT showed that risk management is not being implemented, except for a study done on the application of risk analysis to the project delivery system. In this study, hazards were assessed in terms of their e likelihoods, as well as the ) c e r n consequences to the structure u e t u c q and the impact on the public u r e t s s and environment. n o o t ( C Impact The major accomplishments of (on public and environment) this study are summarized in Likelihood (of hazard) the following paragraphs. Hazards identification in Florida Based on review of historical records of hazard events at both national and state levels, it was concluded the predominant natural hazard in Florida is the hurricane, followed by wildfires, tornadoes, flooding, and scour. Earthquake history in Florida was reviewed, and it was found that the hazard is not common in recent times. There are recorded earthquake events of significant intensity in the 1890s and 1990s, but many of them were doubted as being natural earthquakes. Given the high traffic of vehicles, especially those of trucks, on the roadways and vessels on the waterways in Florida, the risk due to collisions, which may also result in fire incidents, was found to also constitute a significant risk to Florida bridges.
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