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Freight Rates and the Price of Oil Part Company CHARLES R. WEBER COMPANY TANKER REPORT 2005 Freight Rates and the Price of Oil Part Company MAY 2005 mESSENTIAL READINGa FOR THEy INTERNATIONAL’ OIL 0TRANSPORTATION5 INDUSTRY IN THIS REPORT 01:1-2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WILL TANKER SHIPPING TAKE OFF IN 2005? 02:3-6 WORLD OIL MARKET CRUDE OIL DEMAND - FORCAST FOR 2005 STRENGTHENS AGAIN + OPEC’S MICRO MANAGEMENT DOES NOTHING FOR MARKET CONFIDENCE + INSUFFICIENT CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY + LONG TERM UNDERINVEST- MENT IN THE REFINERY INDUSTRY 03:7-9 TANKER MARKET THE LINK BETWEEN CRUDE OIL PRICES AND TANKER FREIGHT RATES BREAKS IN 1Q05 + FREIGHT RATE WEAKNESS + INVESTOR REACTION TO TANKER MARKET PERFORMANCE 04:10-13 PROSPECTS FOR TANKER FREIGHT RATES 2005 TANKER STOCKS HOLDING UP + CRUDE OIL DEMAND GROWTH + CONTINUED LONG HAUL TRADE GROWTH 05:14-16 VESSEL SECTORS TANKER MARKET REVIEW + THE RANKINGS + 06:17-20 VLCC FLEET THE ACTUAL TRADING VLCC FLEET BASIS MAY 2005 Issue 02 Weber TANKER Report EDITORIAL BOARD DISCLAIMER Charles R. Weber Company Inc. Tanker Report is Basil G. Mavroleon - Managing Director Whilst every care has been taken in the produc- published four times a year. It reviews important top- Dan O’Donnell - Director tion of this study, no liability can be accepted for ics within the tanker shipping industry and tanker sec- any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any tors that are of particular interest. It focuses on CONTACT DETAILS person who may seek to rely on the information changes in tanker trading patterns and changes in Johnny M. Kulukundis contained herin. The information in this report fleet supply and demand. Charles R. Weber Company Inc. may not be reproduced without he express writ- Greenwich Office Park One ten permission of the Charles R. Weber Comapny, SOURCES: Greenwich, Conneccticut, 06831, USA Inc. Charles R. Weber Research, International Energy voice:+1 203 629 2300 Agency, Energy Information Agency, Lloyds Maritime fax:+1 203 629 9103 COPYRIGHT Information Unit, Baltic Exchange, Global Trade e-mail:[email protected] © 2005 Charles R. Weber Company, Inc. Information Services. web: www.crweber.com ”>>THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THERE HAS BEEN GROWING CONCERN THAT CRUDE OIL SUPPLY WILL CHARLES R. WEBER TANKER REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:01 Will Tanker Shipping Take Off in 2005? The weakness of tanker freight rates during 1Q05 can The disappointing feature for tanker owners during 1Q05 be explained by two major factors. was that while crude oil prices remained close to levels seen at the end of 2004, tanker spot earnings fell by around 75% from peak levels in mid November 2004. However, it Firstly, the pace of tanker fleet expansion (up +6.2% in should be pointed out that leading publicly quoted tanker 2004) was unabated at the start of the year with a net owners still posted encouraging results for 1Q05 with net increase of 7.4MnDwt (+2.2%) for first quarter 2005. Tanker income up an average of 48% compared to 1Q04 for OSG, deliveries were particularly strong with 9MnDwt added, OMI, Genmar and Teekay (see section 3 for more details of while tanker scrapping remains low, but is starting to creep tanker company results). All be it a carry over from the a up. very firm fourth quarter of 2004 as discussed in our last quarterly report. Secondly, high oil prices were finally translated in higher bunker prices at the start of the year, which significantly The VLCC market illustrates this demise with average spot increased tanker voyage costs and helped drag tanker earnings for a modern vessel at around $50,000pd at the earnings lower. It is estimated that bunker prices have risen end of April compared to a peak of $221,455pd in the week by 50% since the start of the year. ending 12th November 2004. The Link Between Tanker Earnings and Crude Oil However, the continuing strength of tanker demand Prices Breaks in 1Q05 suggests that the freight market has overshot. 250,000 60 55 VLCC Average Spot Tanker demand as measured by crude oil production was 200,000 Earnings up 1.5Mnbd YOY in 1Q05 - despite falling slightly to West Texas 50 83.8Mnbd from peak levels of 84.2Mnbd in 4Q04. Intermediate 45 Therefore, the sluggish start to the year does not necessar- 150,000 ily give rise to concerns for tanker freight rate prospects for 40 the remainder of the year. $Bbl $day 100,000 35 Crude oil demand forecasts for 2005 strengthen again 30 50,000 25 Figure 2 shows the world crude oil supply/demand balance (source International Energy Agency, IEA) for 2003 and 0 20 2004, as well as the IEA's demand forecast for 2005. 04/01/2002 10/01/2003 16/01/2004 21/01/2005 figure 2 figure1 IEA World Oil Supply/Demand Balance 2003-05 87 Figure 1 shows that there has been a reason- 85 able correlation between crude oil prices and tanker earnings for the three year period up to 83 the start of this year, but that this link was well and truly broken during 1Q05. Mnbd 81 79 77 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 Supply 79.2 78.4 79.4 81.7 82.3 82.4 83.2 84.2 83.8 Demand 80.4 77.3 79.4 82.1 82.5 81.1 81.9 84.5 84.6 82.7 83.7 86.1 BE UNABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH DEMAND. ONE OF THE PRIMARY WORRIES HAS BEEN THE LACK OF 1 CHARLES R. WEBER TANKER REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:01 While demand is not expected to reach growth levels of growth predicted by the IMF), and if Chinese crude oil 2004 the demand forecasts for 2005 have been revised up. imports (and to a lesser extent imports to India and the United States) continue to expand strongly, then This latest forecasts from the IEA are up from their supply/demand tightness in the market will persist and there December 2004 numbers and are now more in-line with will be every chance of significant tanker freight rate spikes other forecasting organizations that are also estimating later in the year. increased growth. Tanker freight rate prospects for the remainder of 2005 These spikes may be triggered by downstream bottlenecks, geopolitical tension; nervousness in the market caused by the actions of OPEC or increased concern about spare The strength of the shipping market at the end of last year crude oil production capacity. The supply/demand balance occurred despite a 6.2% increase in the supply of tanker is so tight that even small events may have major conse- tonnage. In 2004, supply negatives were overpowered quences. However, the expected tanker freight rate spikes by a combination of surging world oil demand and a are unlikely to be as spectacular as in 2004 - unless shift to an increased dependence on longer haul trades. Chinese crude oil imports increase at a faster rate than cur- rently forecast. Even if this happens, a lack of storage and At the start of 2005, crude oil demand has continued to refinining capacity availability in the short term will serve to strengthen (+2.6% yoy). However, the improvement in somewhat cap these spikes. crude oil supply during 1Q05 has been less impressive (+1.7% yoy), while tanker supply growth has continued to forge ahead (+2.2%). Fleet growth and high voyage costs will continue to act as a drag on tanker earnings in 2005, but freight rate spikes are probable during 2H05 High crude oil prices represent the biggest risk for a recov- ery in tanker rates in 2005 for two reasons. Firstly, if crude oil prices remain high, then bunker prices (a major compo- nent of tanker voyage costs) will also remain high and tanker earnings will be depressed. Secondly, the damaging impact of high crude oil prices on tanker profitability is being repeated across many other industries. Consequently, worldwide economic prosperity is being put at risk - as stressed in April by the IMF in its twice yearly assessment of global economic prospects. A pro- longed period of high oil prices cannot be sustained, and will eventually cause crude oil demand to falter. Rapid tanker supply growth, which is set to continue in 2005, is nothing new. However, the fleet is expanding much faster (est. +6.0% 2005) than crude oil demand (est. +2.1% 2005). Therefore, unless tanker long haul trades expand faster than short haul trade - boosting tanker tonmile demand - then the upside potential for tanker freight rates will be restricted. China - with its reliance on long haul crude oil imports - remains crucial to the fortunes of the tanker market. However, if crude oil prices can be maintained at "reason- able" levels (and the world economy achieves the "solid" SPARE PRODUCTION CAPACITY, GLOBAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY CLAIMS ARE NO LONGER BEING 2 CHARLES R. WEBER TANKER REPORT WORLD OIL MARKET:02 (1) Prospects for the World Oil Market in 2005 China Crude Oil Imports 13000 Crude Oil Demand - Forecast for 2005 strengthens 12000 again 11000 Although not expected to match the bumper crude oil 10000 demand growth seen in 2004 (+2.72 Mnbd, +3.4%), 9000 demand forecasts for 2005 have been revised up to 1.77 Mnbd (+2.1%) (source International Energy Agency, IEA). 8000 '000bd 7000 This latest forecast for 2005 represents a 0.39Mnbd increase compared to the IEA's forecast in December 2004, 6000 and brings the organisation into line with other forecasting 5000 2004/5 organizations that are also estimating growth of around 2003/4 4000 2Mnbd. The US Government's Energy Information Agency 2002/3 (EIA) is predicting average crude oil demand growth of 3000 2.2Mnbd for 2005 and 2006.
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