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When Drivers Are Not Going to Drive NOVATEK Microelectronics Co., LTD (3034 TT) When Drivers Are Not Going To Drive National Chengchi University, Taiwan CFA Institute Research Challenge Anna Cheng ｜ Yowen Chang ｜ Jackson Chen ｜ Brian Chien ｜ Yensheng Lee National Chengchi University 1 RECOMMENDATION: SELL 18% 200 (Mar. 31, 2016) 150 NT$ 129.5 TP 100 NT$ 106 50 2015/1/5 2015/4/5 2015/7/5 2015/10/5 2016/1/5 2016/12/31 TV Market Share Erosion Fail to Catch Up with the TDDI Takeoff Limited Contribution from SoC Business National Chengchi University 2 Business & Industry Overview Investment Thesis Financial Analysis & Valuation Investment Risks National Chengchi University 3 Novatek, a Fabless Chip Design Company IC Design Panel End Market Foundry Test Assembly Driver IC SoC Source: AUO, Asus, Sony, Huawei National Chengchi University 4 Display Driver IC, Main Product Line Revenue Breakdown by Product Portfolio 2015 SoC 28% DDIC 72% Source: Company Data National Chengchi University 5 Panel Makers Utilize Novatek’s Products IC Design Panel End Market Foundry Test Assembly Driver IC SoC Source: AUO, Asus, Sony, Huawei National Chengchi University 6 Taiwanese Panel Makers Are Main Customers Revenue Breakdown by Geography, 2015 Japan Taiwan 44% China Korea Source: Company Data National Chengchi University 7 Panels Are Applied to Electronic Products IC Design Panel End Market Foundry Test Assembly Driver IC SoC Source: AUO, Asus, Sony, Huawei National Chengchi University 8 TVs & Smartphones Are Primary Applications Revenue Breakdown by Product, 2015 Tablet Other PC TV 40% Smartphone 29% Source: Company Data, IHS, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 9 Decisive Factors of Novatek’s Future Performance Touch with Display System on Chip, 4K TV Driver Integration, SoC TDDI Lucrative Competitive Developing Driver Technology Product Line Source: Apple, Samsung National Chengchi University 10 Business & Industry Overview Investment Thesis Financial Analysis & Valuation Investment Risks National Chengchi University 11 4K TV Market Share Erosion Fail to Catch Up with the TDDI Takeoff Limited Contribution from SoC National Chengchi University 12 Main Customers Lose Market Share 4K TV Panel Market Share Supplier: Himax China Supplier: Samsung Inhouse + Korean Fabless Korea 42% 25% 19% Supplier: Novatek 2014 2015 2020E Taiwan Source: IHS, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 13 Main Customers Lose Market Share 4K TV Panel Market Share Supplier: Himax China 46% 62% 57% Supplier: Samsung Inhouse + Korean Fabless Korea Supplier: Novatek 2014 2015 2020E Taiwan Source: IHS, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 14 Main Customers Lose Market Share 4K TV Panel Market Share 12% 13% 24% Supplier: Himax China Supplier: Samsung Inhouse + Korean Fabless Korea Supplier: Novatek 2014 2015 2020E Taiwan Source: IHS, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 15 TV End Market Is a Standstill (Mn) TV Panel Shipments 270 240 210 180 150 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E TV Demand TV Panel Supply Source: IHS, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 16 Panel Oversupply Leads to Falling ASP Panel Price vs. DDIC ASP Panel Price & Novatek’s DDIC ASP Panel ASP MoM (55 inch TV) NT$ NT$ 18 160 -6% -4% -2% 0% 140 0% 15 120 12 100 -1% MoM ASP DDIC 9 80 -2% 60 6 40 3 -3% 20 0 0 -4% 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E DDIC ASP Panel Price (RHS) Source: IHS, DisplaySearch, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 17 TV Business Fails to Drive Novatek TV Market Share Novatek DDIC ASP 2015 2016E 25% 2015 -12% 22% NT$16 NT$14 2016E 2015 2020E 16 Source: IHS, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 18 4K TV Market Share Erosion Fail to Catch Up with the TDDI Takeoff Limited Contribution from SoC National Chengchi University 19 Lower Cost Attracts Smartphone Makers to Adopt TDDI Smartphone Cost Breakdown TDDI Smartphone Cost Breakdown (NT$) (NT$) $45 $41 Touch IC $ 21 TDDI Display Driver IC $ 41 $ 24 1.2 Source: IHS National Chengchi University 20 Lag Behind the Industry Curve 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 Sample Shipment Novatek Shipment Focaltech + Orise Shipment Synaptics + Renesas Shipment Himax Source: Company Data, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 21 Strategic Mistake Drags Down Market Share Novatek’s Smartphone Market Share 2015 2016E 20% 17% Source: NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 22 4K TV Market Share Erosion Fail to Catch Up with the TDDI Takeoff Limited Contribution from SoC National Chengchi University 23 TV SoC Is the Key Driver in Novatek’s SoC Business SoC Revenue Breakdown, 2015 TV SoC Others 50% 50% Source: Company Data National Chengchi University 24 SoC Market Share, 2015 Novatek Others Korean In-house Realtek Mediatek& MStar Market Share Loss in Samsung’s In-House Production Samsung’s TV SoC Suppliers Breakdown 100% 30% 80% 55% 60% 60% MediaTek 40% 20% 30% 25% 20% 0% 2014 2015 2016E 2017E Source: iSuppli, Company Data, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 25 SoC Market Share 5% 7% 9% 7% Chinese Vendors 17% 23% Novatek 21% 19% In-house system Realtek 48% 44% Mstar&Mediatek 2015 2016E Falling ASP Results from Price-Sensitive Market Novatek SoC Market Share Novatek SoC ASP 2015 2016E 10% 2015 -8% 7% NT$48.5 NT$44.6 2016E Source: Company Data, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 26 Business & Industry Overview Investment Thesis Financial Analysis & Valuation Investment Risks National Chengchi University 27 Over-optimistic Consensus Will Be Revised Down 2016 Revenue Forecast (NT$, mn) 58,000 54,000 -4.8% 50,000 -5% -11.9% -2.1% 46,000 42,000 38,000 Street 4K4K TVTV TDDITDDI SoCSoC NCCU Consensus Estimates Source: Thomson Reuters, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 28 Rising R&D Expenses Erode Profitability R&D Expenses (NT$, mn) 8,000 18% 16% 7,000 14% 6,000 12% 10% 5,000 8% 4,000 6% 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E R&D Expenses (LHS) % of Revenue (RHS) Source: Company Data, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 29 ROE Estimates Are Lower Than the Consensus ROE Estimates versus Consensus 30% 27.3% 26% 22.3% 22.0% 22% 18.8% 20.3% 18% 16.7% 14% 13.3% 10% 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Team Estimates Street Consensus Source: Thomson Reuters, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 30 Dividend Yield Will Be Less Attractive Dividend Yield (NT$) 12 10% 10 7.7% 8% 8 6.1% 5.2% 6% 6 4.3% 4.6% 4% 4 2% 2 0 0% 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Dividend Per Share (LHS) Dividend Yield (RHS) Source: Company Data, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 31 Valuation Suggests Downside with TP NT$106 (-18%) Stock Price Performance (NT$) 200 170 140 110 $106 80 50 2013/1/2 2014/1/2 2015/1/2 2016/1/2 2017/1/2 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2016-12 Source: Company Data, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 32 High Correlation Between Forward PB & ROE Forward PB - ROE Correlation (ROE) (PB) 60%10x ROE Forward PB 60%10x 50%8x 50%8x 40%6x 40%6x 30%4x 30%4x 20%2x 20%2x 10%0x 10%0x 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E Source: Company Data, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 33 TP NT$106 Derived by PB-ROE Valuation Too Optimistic Weakening Profitability ROE 22% 2016E ROE 16.7% 2.9x 2.2x Current P/B Expected P/B Source: Company Data, NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 34 Bull Case Shows Limited Upside Stock Price Performance 1 (NT$) 4K TV Market 150 Share Gain $5 $139 140 $17 +8.5% Current Price: $129.5 2 130 Significant TDDI 120 Shipments $11 110 $106 3 100 Improving SoC Business 90 80 Base Case 4K TV TDDI SoC Bull Case Source: NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 35 Business & Industry Overview Investment Thesis Financial Analysis & Valuation Investment Risks National Chengchi University 36 Main Risks with Upside Potential High Goods Trade M&AM&A PossibilitiesPossibilities Agreement fromfrom ChinaChina with China TDDI Reaches 4K TV Market Share Significant Gain Shipments Impact SoC ASP Remains Stable Low Low Probability High Source: NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 37 High M&A Impact but Low Probability M&A Possibilities from China High M&A Goods Trade Possibilities Agreement • Caused by Loosening Investment from China with China Regulations for Chinese Firms • Higher Share Price Due to Re-rated P/E Impact Stress Test - BUY Base SELL HOLD BUY Low NT$106 NT$117 NT$142 NT$150 -18% -10% +10% Low Probability High Source: NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 38 Possible Market Share Gain, Still a SELL Passage of Cross-Strait Goods High M&A Goods Trade Possibilities Agreement Trade Agreement from China with China • 5% Tariff Could Be Lowered for AUO and Innolux • Market Share Gain in China Impact Stress Test - SELL Base SELL HOLD Low NT$106 NT$116 NT$117 NT$142 -18% -10% +10% Low Probability High Source: NCCU Estimates National Chengchi University 39 RECOMMENDATION: 18% SELL TP: NT$ 106 Drivers Are not Going to Drive • 4K TV Market Share Erosion • Fail to Catch Up with the TDDI Takeoff • Limited Contribution from SoC National Chengchi University National Chengchi University 40 National Chengchi University Thank You National Chengchi University 41 .
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