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Current Developments on the Global Commercial Vehicle Market

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Current Developments on the Global Commercial Vehicle Market Current Developments on the Global Commercial Vehicle Market Prof. Dr. Bernd Gottschalk President German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) International Press Workshop “Commercial Vehicles – A Mobile Future” 9 July 2004, Frankfurt/Main Commercial Vehicle Markets I. Global page 3 II. Germany page 41 I. Global Commercial Vehicle Markets -Overview page 4 -byRegion -North America page 10 -South America page 12 -Asia page 15 - Eastern Europe page 21 - Western Europe page 28 World Commercial Vehicle Parc by Region 2003 Global number of registered CV in 2003: 141 million units. Eastern Europe South America** share: 11.0% share: 3.6% units: 15.5 Mn. North America* units: 5.0 Mn. % vs. 90: + 21.1 share: 10.1% % vs. 90: + 28.2 % vs. 80: + 70.3 units: 14.2 Mn. % vs. 80: + 78.5 % vs. 90: + 22.4 South America** % vs. 80: + 39.2 North America* Eastern Europe 3.6% 10.1% 11.0% other countries other countries 16.6% share: 16.6% units: 23.5 Mn. % vs. 90: + 3.1 Western Europe % vs. 80: + 47.8 19.6% Western Europe Asia*** share: 19.6% share: 39.1% units: 27.6 Mn. units: 55.1 Mn. % vs. 90: + 35.3 Asia*** % vs. 90: + 34.4 % vs. 80: + 126.2 39.1% % vs. 80: + 157.5 * North and South America without Light Trucks. ** Argentina and Brazil. *** Asia including Turkey. 4 World Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region SalesSales worldwide:worldwide: 2003:2003: 8,9758,975 (+6%)(+6%) in 1,000 units 2004:2004: 9,5309,530 (+6%)(+6%) Eastern Europe***: 2003: 477 (+11%) $ New EU Member States: 2004: 510 (+7%) 2003: 109 (+12%) USA*: 2004: 125 (+14%) 2003: 328 (+2%) Asia (without China and Japan): 2004: 380 (+16%) 2003: 1,663 (+12%) 2004: 1,800 (+8%) Western Europe: 2003: 2,082 (-2%) $ 2004: 2,180 (+5%) ¥ $ Japan**: Mercosur*: 2003: 1,368 (+1%) 2003: 72 (+4%) 2004: 1,188 (-13%) 2004: 89 (+24%) China: 2003: 2,419 (+14%) 2004: 2,600 (+7%) 2004: VDA forecast * Medium and Heavy Trucks ** Due to new classification comparison 2004/2003 difficult *** incl. New EU Member States 5 World Commercial Vehicle Production by Region Western Europe USA* Japan China other countries World in Mn share in % in Mn share in % in Mn share in % in Mn share in % in Mn share in % in Mn 1980 1.6 21.1 0.3 3.9 3.9 51.3 0.2 2.6 1.6 21.1 7.6 1985 1.4 17.0 0.3 3.6 4.6 56.2 0.4 4.9 1.5 18.3 8.2 1990 1.8 22.0 0.2 2.4 3.5 42.7 0.6 7.2 2.2 26.5 8.3 1995 1.8 21.9 0.4 4.9 2.6 31.7 1.1 13.4 2.3 28.1 8.2 2000 2.3 25.9 0.4 4.5 1.8 20.0 1.5 16.9 2.9 32.7 8.9 2003 2.1 23.1 0.3 3.3 1.8 19.8 2.4 26.4 2.5 27.4 9.1 2005 2.2 21.6 0.4 3.9 1.9 18.6 3.0 29.4 2.7 26.5 10.2 2010 2.3 19.1 0.5 4.3 2.0 17.0 4.0 34.0 3.0 25.6 11.8 * Medium- and Heavy-Trucks. 6 World World‘s Top Ten Manufacturers of Heavy CV 2003 250,000 229,000 The three biggest manufacturers 200,000 of Heavy CV are DaimlerChrysler, followed by 150,000 Dongfeng and FAW. 141,000 140,000 150,000 94,000 100,000 89,000 84,000 units 67,000 66,000 61,000 50,000 0 FAW Isuzu Telco Paccar Navistar Volvo/RVI Fiat-Iveco Dongfeng Mitsubishi/Fuso DaimlerChrysler Source: OICA, VDA. 7 World World‘s Top Ten Manufacturers of Heavy Buses 2003 30,000 28,000 DaimlerChrysler held its 25,000 rank as the leading manufacturer of heavy 20,000 buses in 2003. 15,000 13,000 13,000 units 11,000 10,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 5,000 0 FAW Telco Volvo Irisbus Neoman Dongfeng Hyundai-Kia Ashok Leyland Changjiang Bus Changjiang DaimlerChrysler Buses over 8 t. Source: OICA, VDA. 8 Trends towards Globalisation amongst the Most Important Commercial Vehicle Manufacturers 4.4% Cooperation FAW (Jiefang) Mitsubishi Hyundai Volkswagen Ford Motors Corp. 37.3% 10% Motor Company Scania Seat VW 20.0% 34.0% 100% 50.0% Daimler Hyundai do Brazil Mazda Getrag Ford Kia Mitsubishi Fuso 65.0% Truck Corp. Asia Motors 33.4% Transmission 44.0% Truck and Bus Corp. Toyota PACCAR DaimlerChrysler Hino Daihatsu 50.1% 100% Mercedes- American Foden Kenworth Peterbilt EvoBus Freightliner Orion Dodge DAF Benz la France Leyland Trucks Trucks Truck Motors Eicher (India) Mercedes- Askam Kamyon Setra Sterling Western Star Navistar Tatra Benz BMC (Turkey) GM-Daewoo (Turkey) 42.1% GAZ (Russia) General Motors LDV (UK) 15% Renault V.I. 44.6% Fuji Heavy Suzuki Isuzu IBC Vauxhall/Opel Levend Ind. (20%) 20% 12% 100% 100% Nissan Motors (Turkey) 22.5% 20% 100% Holden 23.2% PSA Nissan Diesel AB Volvo Dacia Fiat Sisu Peugeot Citroën Renault Mack Terberg Volvo Trucks Volvo Bus Trucks Trucks (NL) Ssangyong ZIL (Russia) Iveco 15% 50% Astra Iveco Fiat Zhengzhou Ashok Naveco Irisbus Heuliez Bus Ikarus Bus MAZ (Italy) Brazil MAN Yutong Bus Leyland (China) 50% 27% TFM Bus MAN Truck & Haveco Otoyol Iveco Ford Iveco Iveco Iveco Iveco International ÖAF ERF NEOMAN Star Steyr & Coaches Bus China (China) (Turkey) Truck Pegaso Magirus Eurofire Trucks Australia 33.3% 97.5% 49% Neoplan Bus MAN Bus Dongfeng Uralaz Karosa Atlas vehicles (Russia) (Czech Rep.) (Marocco) Source: company data, VDA, Globalinsight 9 60 50 Clear rebound of U.S. 40 Sales of Heavy-Trucks 30 20 10 USA 0 -10 -20 change-30 on previous year in per cent -Heavy-Truck sales 2004 -40 -50 -41.0 1.Q. 01 -37.5 28.7 -32.6 -20.2 2.Q. 01 -19.1 -1.9 3.Q. 01 13.1 4.Q. 01 1.Q. 02 57.8 2.Q. 02 -9.4 46.5 -3.0 3.Q. 02 10.4 4.Q. 02 Sales of Heavy-Trucks Jan.-May 2004: 72,654-9.9 Jan.-May 04/03: + 46.5% 1.Q. 03 Jan.-May 04/03: + 46.5% 2.Q. 03 3.Q. 03 4.Q. 03 1.Q. 04 Jan.-May 04 10 North America Production of Medium- and Heavy-Trucks 2004 The production of Medium-and Heavy-Trucks in NAFTA countries increased by 26 per cent in the last two years. 1-5/2004: 172,061 change vs. 1-5/03: + 31.7% change vs. 1-5/02: + 26.2% 180,000 1-5/2004: 131,712 1-5/2002 1-5/2003 1-5/2004 160,000 change vs. 1-5/03: + 32.5% change vs. 1-5/02: + 22.6% 140,000 172,061 120,000 1-5/2004: 24,863 change vs. 1-5/03: + 38.0% 136,273 130,638 131,712 units 100,000 change vs. 1-5/02: + 42.8% 80,000 1-5/2004: 15,486 107,433 change vs. 1-5/03: + 17.1% 60,000 118.204 change vs. 1-5/02: + 35.5% 3 6 8 ,863 2 2 0 40,000 3 ,2 ,48 ,4 24 ,4 3 5 1 1 1 17 18,015 1 20,000 0 USA Canada Mexico NAFTA 11 Production of Medium- and Heavy-Trucks 40 30 30.7 South America 20 10 0 10.2 change on previous year in per cent -10 -20 1.Q. 01 2.Q. 01 -13.9 3.Q. 01 22.7 -19.3 4.Q. 01 4.6 -19.5 1.Q. 02 -17.2 25.2 15.7 2.Q. 02 -13.7 Production of Medium and Heavy-Trucks 30.7 3.Q. 02 Jan.-May 2004: 46,370 21.2 Jan.-May 04/03: + 30.7%-0.3 4.Q. 02 1.Q. 03 2.Q. 03 3.Q. 03 4.Q. 03 1.Q. 04 Jan.-May 04 12 South America Sales of Medium- / Heavy-Trucks in Argentina After the market slumped by more than 75 per cent from 2000 to 2002 sales of medium and heavy trucks are on the rise again. Medium and Heavy May January - May % market share (Jan.-May) Trucks Einheiten 04 / 03 Einheiten 04 / 03 2004 2003 Mercedes-Benz 429 382.0 1,985 451.4 32.6 24.9 Volkswagen 150 72.4 1,037 229.2 17.0 21.8 Total German Trucks 579 229.0 3,022 347.7 49.6 46.6 Ford 319 293.8 1,878 528.1 30.8 20.7 GM 0 - 0 - 0.0 0.0 Iveco 202 155.7 697 98.0 11.4 24.3 Scania 96 638.5 365 1303.8 6.0 1.8 Sonstige 25 66.7 135 42.1 2.2 6.6 Total Trucks 1,221 235.4 6,097 321.4 100.0 100.0 Source: Adefa. 13 South America Sales of Medium- / Heavy-Trucks in Brazil May Januar - May % market share Medium Trucks Einheiten04 / 03 Einheiten 04 / 03 2004 2003 Mercedes-Benz 921 8.1 4,374 9.7 29.2 28.8 Volkswagen 1,044 11.4 4,901 - 2.1 32.7 36.2 Total German Trucks 1,965 9.8 9,275 3.1 61.8 65.0 Agrale 69 30.2 262 - 3.7 1.7 2.0 Fiat 117 317.9 254 71.6 1.7 1.1 Ford 900 16.0 4,183 11.3 27.9 27.1 GM 1 - 1 - 0.0 0.0 PSA 10 25.0 56 100.0 0.4 0.2 Iveco 180 36.4 968 50.8 6.5 4.6 Total Medium Trucks 3,242 16.4 14,999 8.4 100.0 100.0 May Januar - May % market share Heavy Trucks Einheiten04 / 03 Einheiten 04 / 03 2004 2003 Mercedes-Benz 1,245 16.2 5,913 24.2 32.4 35.0 Volkswagen 1,083 27.6 4,655 27.1 25.5 26.9 Total German Trucks 2,328 21.3 10,568 25.5 57.9 61.9 Ford 513 22.4 2,418 49.8 13.2 11.9 Iveco 103 87.3 506 146.8 2.8 1.5 Scania 503 75.9 2,205 33.2 12.1 12.2 Volvo 566 48.2 2,559 50.0 14.0 12.5 Total Heavy Trucks 4,013 31.1 18,256 34.2 100.0 100.0 Source: Anfavea.
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