Current Developments on the Global Commercial Vehicle Market
Prof. Dr. Bernd Gottschalk President German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA)
International Press Workshop “Commercial Vehicles – A Mobile Future” 9 July 2004, Frankfurt/Main Commercial Vehicle Markets
I. Global page 3
II. Germany page 41 I. Global Commercial Vehicle Markets -Overview page 4 -byRegion -North America page 10 -South America page 12 -Asia page 15 - Eastern Europe page 21 - Western Europe page 28 World Commercial Vehicle Parc by Region 2003
Global number of registered CV in 2003: 141 million units.
Eastern Europe South America** share: 11.0% share: 3.6% units: 15.5 Mn. North America* units: 5.0 Mn. % vs. 90: + 21.1 share: 10.1% % vs. 90: + 28.2 % vs. 80: + 70.3 units: 14.2 Mn. % vs. 80: + 78.5 % vs. 90: + 22.4 % vs. 80: + 39.2 South America** North America* Eastern Europe 3.6% 10.1% 11.0% other countries other countriesshare: 16.6% 16.6% units: 23.5 Mn. % vs. 90: + 3.1 Western Europe % vs. 80: + 47.8 19.6% Western Europe Asia*** share: 19.6% share: 39.1% units: 27.6 Mn. units: 55.1 Mn. % vs. 90: + 35.3 Asia*** % vs. 90: + 34.4 % vs. 80: + 126.2 39.1% % vs. 80: + 157.5
* North and South America without Light Trucks. ** Argentina and Brazil. *** Asia including Turkey. 4 World Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region
SalesSales worldwide:worldwide: 2003:2003: 8,9758,975 (+6%)(+6%) in 1,000 units 2004:2004: 9,5309,530 (+6%)(+6%)
Eastern Europe***: 2003: 477 (+11%) $ New EU Member States: 2004: 510 (+7%) 2003: 109 (+12%) USA*: 2004: 125 (+14%) 2003: 328 (+2%) Asia (without China and Japan): 2004: 380 (+16%) 2003: 1,663 (+12%) 2004: 1,800 (+8%) Western Europe: 2003: 2,082 (-2%) $ 2004: 2,180 (+5%) ¥
$ Japan**: Mercosur*: 2003: 1,368 (+1%) 2003: 72 (+4%) 2004: 1,188 (-13%) 2004: 89 (+24%) China: 2003: 2,419 (+14%) 2004: 2,600 (+7%)
2004: VDA forecast * Medium and Heavy Trucks ** Due to new classification comparison 2004/2003 difficult *** incl. New EU Member States 5 World Commercial Vehicle Production by Region
Western Europe USA* Japan China other countries World in Mn share in % in Mn share in % in Mn share in % in Mn share in % in Mn share in % in Mn 1980 1.6 21.1 0.3 3.9 3.9 51.3 0.2 2.6 1.6 21.1 7.6 1985 1.4 17.0 0.3 3.6 4.6 56.2 0.4 4.9 1.5 18.3 8.2 1990 1.8 22.0 0.2 2.4 3.5 42.7 0.6 7.2 2.2 26.5 8.3 1995 1.8 21.9 0.4 4.9 2.6 31.7 1.1 13.4 2.3 28.1 8.2 2000 2.3 25.9 0.4 4.5 1.8 20.0 1.5 16.9 2.9 32.7 8.9 2003 2.1 23.1 0.3 3.3 1.8 19.8 2.4 26.4 2.5 27.4 9.1 2005 2.2 21.6 0.4 3.9 1.9 18.6 3.0 29.4 2.7 26.5 10.2 2010 2.3 19.1 0.5 4.3 2.0 17.0 4.0 34.0 3.0 25.6 11.8
* Medium- and Heavy-Trucks.
6 World World‘s Top Ten Manufacturers of Heavy CV 2003
250,000 229,000 The three biggest manufacturers of Heavy CV are 200,000 DaimlerChrysler, followed by 150,000 Dongfeng and FAW. 141,000 140,000 150,000
94,000 89,000 100,000 84,000 units 67,000 66,000 61,000
50,000
0 FAW Isuzu Telco Paccar Navistar Volvo/RVI Fiat-Iveco Dongfeng Mitsubishi/Fuso DaimlerChrysler Source: OICA, VDA. 7 World World‘s Top Ten Manufacturers of Heavy Buses 2003 30,000 28,000 DaimlerChrysler held its 25,000 rank as the leading manufacturer of heavy 20,000 buses in 2003.
15,000 13,000 13,000
units 11,000 10,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 5,000
0 FAW Telco Volvo Irisbus Neoman Dongfeng Hyundai-Kia Ashok Leyland Changjiang Bus Changjiang DaimlerChrysler
Buses over 8 t. Source: OICA, VDA. 8 Trends towards Globalisation amongst the Most Important Commercial Vehicle Manufacturers
4.4% Cooperation FAW (Jiefang) Mitsubishi Hyundai Volkswagen Ford Motors Corp. 37.3% 10% Motor Company Scania Seat VW 20.0% 34.0% 100% 50.0% Daimler Hyundai do Brazil Mazda Getrag Ford Kia Mitsubishi Fuso 65.0% Truck Corp. Asia Motors 33.4% Transmission 44.0% Truck and Bus Corp. Toyota PACCAR DaimlerChrysler Hino Daihatsu 50.1% 100% Mercedes- American Foden Kenworth Peterbilt EvoBus Freightliner Orion Dodge DAF Benz la France Leyland Trucks Trucks Truck Motors Eicher (India) Mercedes- Askam Kamyon Setra Sterling Western Star Navistar Tatra Benz BMC (Turkey) GM-Daewoo (Turkey) 42.1% GAZ (Russia) General Motors LDV (UK) 15% Renault V.I. 44.6% Fuji Heavy Suzuki Isuzu IBC Vauxhall/Opel Levend Ind. (20%) 20% 12% 100% 100% Nissan Motors (Turkey) 22.5% 20% 100% Holden 23.2% PSA Nissan Diesel AB Volvo Dacia Fiat Sisu Peugeot Citroën Renault Mack Terberg Volvo Trucks Volvo Bus Trucks Trucks (NL) Ssangyong ZIL (Russia) Iveco
15% 50% Astra Iveco Fiat Zhengzhou Ashok Naveco Irisbus Heuliez Bus Ikarus Bus MAZ (Italy) Brazil MAN Yutong Bus Leyland (China) 50% 27% TFM Bus MAN Truck & Haveco Otoyol Iveco Ford Iveco Iveco Iveco Iveco International ÖAF ERF NEOMAN Star Steyr & Coaches Bus China (China) (Turkey) Truck Pegaso Magirus Eurofire Trucks Australia
33.3% 97.5% 49% Neoplan Bus MAN Bus Dongfeng Uralaz Karosa Atlas vehicles (Russia) (Czech Rep.) (Marocco) Source: company data, VDA, Globalinsight 9 USA Sales of Heavy-Trucks
Clear rebound of U.S.-Heavy-Truck sales 2004 60 57.8
50 46.5
40
30 28.7
20 13.1 10.4 10
0 -1.9 -10 -3.0 -9.4 -9.9 -20 -20.2 -19.1 -30 SalesSales ofof Heavy-TrucksHeavy-Trucks -32.6 change previous on year cent in per -40 -37.5 Jan.-MayJan.-May 2004: 2004: 72,65472,654 -41.0 Jan.-MayJan.-May 04/03: 04/03: ++ 46.5%46.5% -50
1 1 0 0 1 1 . . 0 0 2 2 2 Q . . 0 0 0 2 3 . .Q Q . . . 0 0 3 3 3 1 2 . .Q Q Q . . 0 0 0 4 4 3 4 . . .Q Q . . . 0 0 1 2 3 . .Q Q . 4 1 . .Q .Q Q y 2 3 4 . a 1 M .- n a J
10 North America Production of Medium- and Heavy-Trucks 2004
The production of Medium-and Heavy-Trucks in NAFTA countries increased by 26 per cent in the last two years. 1-5/2004: 172,061 change vs. 1-5/03: + 31.7% change vs. 1-5/02: + 26.2% 1-5/2004: 131,712 1-5/2002 1-5/2003 1-5/2004 180,000 change vs. 1-5/03: + 32.5% change vs. 1-5/02: + 22.6% 160,000 172,061 140,000 120,000 1-5/2004: 24,863 change vs. 1-5/03: + 38.0% 131,712 136,273 130,638 units 100,000 change vs. 1-5/02: + 42.8% 1-5/2004: 15,486 80,000 107,433 change vs. 1-5/03: + 17.1% 118.204 change vs. 1-5/02: + 35.5% 60,000 3 6 ,863 2 8 2 2 ,48 0 24 3 , 5 ,4 40,000 ,4 3 1 18,015 1 1 17 1 20,000 0 USA Canada Mexico NAFTA
11 South America Production of Medium- and Heavy-Trucks
40 30.7 30.7
30 25.2 22.7 21.2
20 15.7
10.2
10 4.6
0 -0.3
ProductionProduction of of MediumMedium andand Heavy-TrucksHeavy-Trucks -10 change previous on year cent in per Jan.-MayJan.-May 2004: 2004: 46,37046,370 -13.9 -13.7 Jan.-MayJan.-May 04/03: 04/03: ++ 30.7%30.7% -17.2 4 4 -20 3 3 3 0 0 -19.5 2 3 0 0 -19.3 2 2 2 0 0 0 y 1 1 0 0 Q. a 1 1 0 0 0 Q. .Q. . 0 0 Q. .Q. .Q. . 4 1 M Q. .Q. .Q. . 1 2 3 .- Q. .Q. .Q. . 2 3 4 n .Q. . 3 4 1 a 1 2 J
12 South America Sales of Medium- / Heavy-Trucks in Argentina
After the market slumped by more than 75 per cent from 2000 to 2002 sales of medium and heavy trucks are on the rise again.
Medium and Heavy May January - May % market share (Jan.-May) Trucks Einheiten 04 / 03 Einheiten 04 / 03 2004 2003 Mercedes-Benz 429 382.0 1,985 451.4 32.6 24.9 Volkswagen 150 72.4 1,037 229.2 17.0 21.8 Total German Trucks 579 229.0 3,022 347.7 49.6 46.6 Ford 319 293.8 1,878 528.1 30.8 20.7 GM 0 - 0 - 0.0 0.0 Iveco 202 155.7 697 98.0 11.4 24.3 Scania 96 638.5 365 1303.8 6.0 1.8 Sonstige 25 66.7 135 42.1 2.2 6.6 Total Trucks 1,221 235.4 6,097 321.4 100.0 100.0
Source: Adefa.
13 South America Sales of Medium- / Heavy-Trucks in Brazil
May Januar - May % market share Medium Trucks Einheiten04 / 03 Einheiten 04 / 03 2004 2003
Mercedes-Benz 921 8.1 4,374 9.7 29.2 28.8 Volkswagen 1,044 11.4 4,901 - 2.1 32.7 36.2 Total German Trucks 1,965 9.8 9,275 3.1 61.8 65.0 Agrale 69 30.2 262 - 3.7 1.7 2.0 Fiat 117 317.9 254 71.6 1.7 1.1 Ford 900 16.0 4,183 11.3 27.9 27.1 GM 1 - 1 - 0.0 0.0 PSA 10 25.0 56 100.0 0.4 0.2 Iveco 180 36.4 968 50.8 6.5 4.6
Total Medium Trucks 3,242 16.4 14,999 8.4 100.0 100.0
May Januar - May % market share Heavy Trucks Einheiten04 / 03 Einheiten 04 / 03 2004 2003
Mercedes-Benz 1,245 16.2 5,913 24.2 32.4 35.0 Volkswagen 1,083 27.6 4,655 27.1 25.5 26.9 Total German Trucks 2,328 21.3 10,568 25.5 57.9 61.9 Ford 513 22.4 2,418 49.8 13.2 11.9 Iveco 103 87.3 506 146.8 2.8 1.5 Scania 503 75.9 2,205 33.2 12.1 12.2 Volvo 566 48.2 2,559 50.0 14.0 12.5
Total Heavy Trucks 4,013 31.1 18,256 34.2 100.0 100.0
Source: Anfavea.
14 Asia CV Sales in Individual Countries January-May 2004
200 182 Sales of Commercial Vehicles in Asia:
150 Striking increase in Turkey, strong rise in India, Thailand, China and Malaysia.
100
50 30 29 22 27 24
0
change previous on year in per cent -16 -30 -31 -50 China India Indonesia* Malaysia* Taiwan Turkey 1,206,618 115,079 131,257 Japan1) 31,667 Philippines South Korea n a a ia 64,196 nd 118,935 p470,144 ys inen21,476 re100,146 a China la p Indien Ja p aiwan i üdko T Ma S Thail Indonesien Phil
* Sales up to April. 1) Due to new statistical classification comparison to 2003 is not significant.
15 Asia Sales of Commercial Vehicles in China 300,000
250,000 2003 total sales of Commercial Vehicles increased by 12.6 per cent to 2.4 Mn. 200,000
150,000 units
100,000 TotalTotal SalesSales ofof CommercialCommercial VehiclesVehicles Jan.-MayJan.-May 2004: 2004: 1,206,6191,206,619 50,000 Jan.-MayJan.-May 04/03: 04/03: ++ 20.5%20.5%
0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures.
16 China Production of Heavy-Trucks by Manufacturer 2003
ProductionProduction of of Heavy-TrucksHeavy-Trucks . Jan.-May 2004: 143,975 Jan.-May 2004: 143,975 China National Jan.-MayJan.-May 04/03: 04/03: ++ 14.1%14.1% Beijing Auto Heavy Duty: 21,136 Industry: 16,106 Chongqing (62%) (589%) Hongyan: 16,082 Dongfeng Motor (28%) Group: 84,022 (-1%) 8% 6% 6% others: 33% 8% 19,513 (80%)
39%
FAW Group Corp.: 98,288 (-21%) Source: Catarc. In brackets: change on previous year.
17 China Production of Medium-Trucks by Manufacturer 2003
ProductionProduction of of Medium-TrucksMedium-Trucks . Jan.-MayJan.-May 2004: 2004: 80,83680,836 Jan.-MayJan.-May 04/03: 04/03: ++ 29.1%29.1% Chengdu Wangpai: 8,965 Dongfeng Motor Group: 66,057 (49%) (-16%) Shannxi Auto: 8,226 7% 52% (6%) 6% 2% Hubei Sanhuan: 33% 3,737 (-52%)
FAW Group: 42,289 (-21%) Source: Catarc. In brackets: change on previous year.
18 Asia Sales of Commercial Vehicles in India
From 2001 to 2003 sales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles rose by 64 per cent, while sales of all classes went up by 61 per cent. 35,000
30,000 Total Sales Medium- / Heavy-CV TotalTotal salessales ofof commercialcommercial vehicles:vehicles: 25,000 Jan.-MayJan.-May 2004: 2004: 115,079115,079 Jan.-MayJan.-May 04/03: 04/03: ++ 30.0%30.0%
20,000 units 15,000
10,000
5,000
0
01 02 Source: SIAM. 03 04 19 Asia Production of Commercial Vehicles in Turkey 2003 production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles rose by 55 per cent, while production of buses rose by 89 per cent.
buses
70,000 heavy cv medium cv 60,000
50,000
units 40,000
150%150% 30,000 150%
20,000
10,000
0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 1-5/03 1-5/04
Source: OSD.
20 Eastern Europe Production and Sales of Commercial Vehicles
600,000 Despite recovery in the last two years, Production Sales production in 2003 only reached 500,000 55 per cent of production in 1992 .
400,000
300,000 units
200,000
100,000
0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
21 Eastern Europe Sales of Commercial Vehicles up to 6 t by country 2003
180,000 2002: 282,158 Vehicles 2003: 304,072 Vehicles 160,000
140,000 In 2003 sales of commercial vehicles up 120,000 to 6 t rose by 8 per cent to 304,100 units.
100,000 The Russian Federation accounted for 57 per cent of total sales. units 80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
ia ine s a s 0 ic Ru bl ia ria Poland Ukr ia v nia ga t l lovenia Romania ua S Slovakia La Eston Bu h Repu Lith Czec
22 Eastern Europe Sales of Commercial Vehicles over 6 t by country 2003
70,000 2002: 92,457 Vehicles 2003: 100,517 Vehicles
60,000 Clear rise of sales (+ 9 per cent) of commercial 50,000 vehicles over 6 t to 100.500 units.
40,000 The Russian Federation accounted for two
units thirds of total sales. 30,000
20,000
10,000
0 e c li ssia a n u a aki rai ub Poland R ri enia v k nia a ania v U ep u lo R lo Romania Latvia S S Bulg ch Esto Lith e Cz
23 Eastern Europe 40 Sales of Commercial Vehicles, January-May 2004
35
34 Sales in Eastern Europe: 30 Signifcant growth rates reflect higher 30 transport needs in „bigger“ Europe. 25
20 18 15 15
10 10
change previous on year in per cent 5 3
0 Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary* Romania Russia* len Po 14,227 12,265 4,877 9,969 12,905 91,624
* Sales up toTschech. April. Rep. Slowak. Rep. Ungarn en i 24 än d um n R sla Rus Poland Sales of Commercial Vehicles over 6 t, Jan.-April 2004
SalesSales ofof commercialcommercial vehicles: vehicles: . Jan.-AprilJan.-April 2004:2004: 3,1463,146 Scania: 368 Jan.-AprilJan.-April 04/03:04/03: ++ 32%32% (270) MAN: 388 (214) 12% 12% Iveco: 351 (161) 11% DAF: 406 (244) 13% others: 156 5% (306)
17% Volvo: 535 Renault: 446 14% (453) (329) 16%
Mercedes: 496 (401)
In brackets: Sales of previous year. Source: Samar. 25 Czech Republic Sales of Medium- and Heavy-Trucks, Jan.-May 2004
SalesSales ofof Medium-Medium- and and Heavy-TrucksHeavy-Trucks 600 Jan.-MayJan.-May 2004: 2004: 2,7392,739 Jan.-MayJan.-May 04/03: 04/03: –– 7% 7% 474 471 500
388
400 313 293 303
256 units 300 241
200
100
0 Iveco Mercedes Renault MAN DAF Scania Volvo others
Source: SAP. 26 Slovakia Sales of Medium- and Heavy-Trucks, Jan.-May 2004
250 233 SalesSales ofof Medium-Medium- and and Heavy-TrucksHeavy-Trucks Jan.-MayJan.-May 2004: 2004: 1,0721,072 Jan.-MayJan.-May 04/03: 04/03: ++ 5%5% 200 183
166 163
150 125 units
100 88 87
50 27
0 Iveco Mercedes Renault Volvo Scania DAF MAN others
Source: ZAP. 27 Western Europe New Car-Derived Van Sales
240,000 216,817 (-7%) remaining countries 21,865 (+5%) 200,000 Great Britain: 18,821 (+12%)
160,000 Portugal: 24,134 (-9%)
Italy: 120,000
in units 34,500 (-24%) 255,164
80,000 237,843 233,116 France: 218,351 207,264 205,896 117,497 (-5%) 199,494
40,000
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
28 Western Europe New Registrations of CV up to 6 t by Segment
199 Car-Derived Vans 217 Main market growth took place in 15 Micro Vans the segment of small vans (+89%). 11 345 Small Vans 654 62 Compact Vans 74 249 Mid-size Vans 287 449 Full-size Vans 572 in 1,000 units 28 Heavy Vans 31 5 Small Pickups 5 1996: 1.406 mn. cv up to 6 t 53 2003: 1.946 mn. cv up to 6 t Large Pickups 95
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
29 Western Europe New Registrations of CV up to 6 t in Main Segments
Renault Kangoo
Citroen Berlingo
Peugeot Partner
Fiat Doblo
Ford Transit Connect Small Vans Small
2004: 281,700 (±0%) others
VW T4/T5 Sales up to May 2004: MB Vito/V-Kl./Viano if above sales up to May 2003 Renault Trafic if under sales up to May 2003 Opel Vivaro
Toyota Hiace Mid-size Vans
2004: 146,100 (+22%) others
Ford Transit
Fiat Ducato
MB T1/Sprinter
Iveco Daily
Renault Master Full-size Vans 2004: 252,900 (+2%) others
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
30 Western Europe Market share of CV up to 6 t*, up to May 2004
In this year‘s first five months the German manufacturers were able to slightly expand their market share.
others Toyota 5% 2% Opel PSA 7% 22%
VW Group 9% per cent shares
DaimlerChrysler 10% Renault / Nissan 20%
Ford 11% Fiat Group 14% * by segment (exclusive car-derived vans)
31 Western Europe Sales of CV up to 6 t by Countries, up to May 2004
Losers Winners
Austria 1.5 Belgium/Luxembourg 4.0 Denmark 32.5 Finland 17.6
France 5.7 change per cent Germany 6.0 Greece 22.0 Ireland -3.9 Italy 11.3 Netherlands 5.3 Norway 20.5 Portugal 7.3 Spain 14.2 In the first few months of 2004 Sweden -1.6 the Western European market 3.6 Switzerland reached mainly positiv results. United Kingdom 8.7 -7 0 7 14 21 28 35 +8.7% 32 Western Europe Production of CV up to 6 t by Group/Manufacturer 2003
600,000
In 2003 French manufacturers accounted for approx. 500,000 45 per cent of total production of CV up to 6 t. 538,759
400,000 500,754
2002 2003 433,785
300,000 406,654 in units 324,418
200,000 308,434 255,841 218,310 217,312 210,789 100,000 204,168 196,653 37,317 30,375 131,080 142,460 0 PSA Renault/Nissan Fiat/Iveco Ford VW Group Daimler GM others Chrysler
33 Western Europe CV Sales over 6 t up to 16 t, January - May 2004
Commercial Vehicles May January - May market share over 6 t up to 16 t* units 04/03 in % units 04/03 in % 2004 2003 Belgium 132 - 35 808 - 8 2.6 2.4 Denmark 38 6 207 7 0.7 0.6 Germ any 2,146 - 9 10,594 4 33.8 33.4 Finland 39 - 22 221 21 0.7 0.6 France 579 - 16 3,383 - 15 10.8 11.4 Greece 62 3 248 47 0.8 0.7 United Kingdom 1,377 - 3 7,146 3 22.8 22.4 Ireland 101 29 569 4 1.8 1.3 Italy 619 - 9 2,919 - 8 9.3 11.3 Luxembourg 12 - 20 59 - 26 0.2 0.2 Netherlands 126 6 817 13 2.6 2.1 Austria 63 - 33 369 - 13 1.2 1.4 Portugal **) 43 - 57 493 - 7 1.6 1.6 Sweden 59 - 6 290 - 12 0.9 0.8 Spain 575 4 2,654 2 8.5 8.1 European Union 5,971 - 8 30,777 - 1 98.1 98.3 Norway 61 - 6 394 25 1.3 1.1 Switzerland 32 - 41 198 - 7 0.6 0.6
Western Europe Total 6,064 - 8 31,369 - 1 100.0 100.0 W E without Germany 3,918 - 8 20,775 - 3 66.2 66.6
* Without buses.
34 Western Europe CV Sales over 16 t, January - May 2004
Commercial Vehicles May January - May market share over 16 t* units 04/03 in % units 04/03 in % 2004 2003 Belgium 615 - 1 3,971 5 4.0 3.4 Denmark 346 10 1,706 11 1.7 1.7 Germany 4,535 13 23,078 19 23.2 21.6 Finland 241 8 1,347 27 1.4 1.2 France 2,987 12 17,898 4 18.0 17.2 Greece 63 11 278 0 0.3 0.3 United Kingdom 2,760 7 13,576 1 13.6 16.0 Ireland 275 7 1,529 3 1.5 1.2 Italy 1,851 - 9 8,616 - 8 8.6 10.4 Luxembourg 76 - 13 367 - 22 0.4 0.5 Netherlands 1,087 4 6,011 6 6.0 4.9 Austria 648 0 3,377 16 3.4 3.3 Portugal 269 15 1,380 32 1.4 1.2 Sweden 330 - 20 1,670 - 3 1.7 2.0 Spain 2,623 8 12,609 10 12.7 12.7 European Union 18,706 6 97,413 7 97.7 97.7 Norway 256 7 1,237 15 1.2 1.2 Switzerland 147 - 38 1,017 - 15 1.1 1.1
Western Europe Total 19,109 6 99,667 7 100.1 100.0 WE without Germany 14,574 4 76,589 4 76.9 78.4
* Without buses.
35 Western Europe Sales of Buses, January - May 2004
MayJanuary - May market share Buses units 04/03 in % units 04/03 in % 2004 2003
Belgium 78 24 484 12 3.5 2.8 Denmark 49 - 57 232 - 20 1.7 1.8 Germany 481 10 2,234 6 16.2 17.5 Finland 20 - 41 214 8 1.6 1.5 France 388 25 1,908 - 6 13.8 13.5 Greece 140 100 622 247 4.5 1.7 United Kingdom 305 - 14 1,757 - 12 12.7 13.4 Ireland 24 26 264 130 1.9 0.5 Italy 430 8 2,080 - 5 15.1 15.3 Luxembourg 14 40 80 - 8 0.6 0.4 Netherlands 56 - 40 304 - 21 2.2 2.5 Austria 70 11 346 21 2.5 2.3 Portugal 77 17 281 - 1 2.0 1.7 Sweden 92 15 318 - 17 2.3 3.4 Spain 295 5 1,325 - 13 9.6 10.8 European Union 2,519 5 12,449 0 90.2 89.2 Norway 56 - 32 275 - 22 2.0 2.5 Switzerland 250 - 24 1,070 - 22 7.8 8.3
Western Europe Total 2,825 1 13,794 - 3 100.0 100.0 WE without Germany 2,344 - 1 11,560 - 5 83.8 82.5
36 Western Europe Market Share of CV over 16 t, January - May 2004
The market share of VDA companies was 50 per cent during the first five months other of this year. 2%
Volvo/RVI 29% Mercedes 18%
MAN 15%
Scania 13% Paccar 13% Iveco-Magirus 4% Fiat-Gruppe*) 6%
* Without Iveco-Magirus.
37 Western Europe CV Production 6 up to 16 t by Group / Manufacturer 2003
30.3% 30,000 27.7% 30.2% 2002: 96,690 2003: 89,694 28.1%
25,000 Fiat-Iveco dominated CV
20,000 production 6 up to 16 t, followed
by DaimlerChrysler. 16.5% 15.7% 15,000 units 14.0% 12.3%
10,000 8.8% 8.6%
5,000 2.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0
n N VI er shi A R M ysl DSV ssa Paccar vo/ hr /Ni C t itsubi Vol Fiat-Iveco M ler m ai Renaul D
38 Western Europe CV Production over 16 t by Group / Manufacturer 2003
28.8% 90,000 2002: 273,249 2003: 288,138 29.3% 80,000 Volvo/RVI was the most 70,000 important manufacturer of 20.6% 60,000 commercial vehicles over 16 t. 18.7%
50,000 14.6% 15.0% units 13.4% 13.6% 12.2% 40,000 11.0% 10.9% 11.1% 30,000
20,000
10,000 0.3% 0.4% 0 N s o A ler er car nia s vec M th ac ry lvo/RVI o P Sca o iat-I Ch V F er ml Dai
. 39 Western Europe CV Production by Weight Classes in 2003
700
600 23 Germany accounts for 34 per cent of Western 500 European CV production over 6 t. 400 35
300 606 131 30 cv over 6 t in 1,000 units 200 352 14 cv up to 6 t 262 219 100 173 105 84 2 21 0 30 20
y s l in m d ia a iu n tr p Italy eden a tuga s S rman lg rl u France e w e e A G S B Por Neth United Kingdom
40 II. Germany - Domestic Market page 42 - Exports page 54 - Production page 60 - Key Figures page 65 - Freight Transport Market page 69 Germany Domestic Orders for Commercial Vehicles up to 6 t
Orders for transporters are rising slightly. 20,000 German makes up to June 2004: +12% 18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000 units total up to May 2004: +4% 10,000 up to May 2004: -8% 8,000
6,000 imported makes 4,000 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures
42 Germany Domestic Orders for Commercial Vehicles over 6 t
Strong increase in domestic orders for CV over 6 t. 8,500 up to June 2004: +36% 7,500
6,500 German makes 5,500
4,500 units total up to May 2004: +39% 3,500 of which: 6-16 t: +32% over 16 t: +42% up to May 2004: +64% 2,500
1,500 imported makes 500 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures
43 Germany Domestic Order Backlog of Commercial Vehicles
70,000 June 2004: 55,300 (+34%) German makes < 6 t: 35,500 (+24%) 60,000 > 6 t: 19,800 (+56%)
50,000
40,000 units 30,000 total May 2004: 67,400 (+21%) 20,000 imported makes 10,000 May 2004: 11,000 (-6%) 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures imported makes: order backlog up to 3.5 t
44 Germany New Registrations of Commercial Vehicles up to 6 t
registration by weight sector market share, up to May 2004 (share in per cent) (share in per cent)
100% 9.0 7.6 7.0 6.4 others Mercedes 90% > 3.5 - 2.6% 20.7% 6.0t Japanese brands 80% 5.1% 70%
60% PSA 70.0 72.5 74.4 > 2.0 - 6.3% 50% 83.2 3.5t 40% Renault VW Group
30% 8.0% 17.7%
20% < 2.0t
10% 18.5 22.4 18.7 Ford 10.3 0% 9.3% 1992 1996 2000 up to May 2004
Opel Fiat / Iveco 10.7% 19.6%
This year to date the German manufactures are accounting for 59.2 per cent of the market of commercial vehicles up to 6 t.
45 Germany New Registrations of CV up to 6 t in the Main Segments
120,000 1998 2000 2002 2003 05/2003 05/2004 03/9 8: -4%
100,000 03 /9 8: - 1 109,718 9% 104,298 104,967 80,000 % 93,811 55 + :
8 84,962 /9 03 60,000
units +24% -3%
60,373 -7% 40,000 43,947 42,635 Renault Kangoo VW T 5 MB Sprinter
20,000 34,952 Citroën Berlingo MB Vito / V-Kl. / Viano Ford Transit Opel Combo Opel Vivaro VW LT
0 Small Van Mid-size Van Full-size Van
46 Germany Market Shares of Commercial Vehicles over 6 t by Make
CV over 6 up to 16 t, up to May 2004 CV over 16 t, up to May 2004 (share in per cent) (share in per cent)
others others 1.7% 10.2% Fiat / Iveco 6.9% Mercedes Mercedes 37.8% 47.2% Scania 6.8% Fiat / Iveco 18.8% Paccar 8.1%
Volvo / RVI 11.3% MAN / ERF MAN / ERF 23.8% 27.4% The German manufacturers are dominating both the medium- and the heavy-duty CV segment.
47 Germany New Registrations of Commercial Vehicles over 6 t
5,500 In the first five months sales of CV over 16 t have increased strongly. 5,000
4,500 CV over 16 t 4,000
3,500 units up to May 2004: +19% 3,000 up to May 2004: +4% 2,500 CV over 6 up to 16 t 2,000
1,500 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures
48 Germany New Registrations of Commercial Vehicles over 6 t
70
Apart from the weight segment of over 16 t the segment 60 of over 10 to 12 t also gained importance.
50
40 1994 1998 2002 up to May 2004 30 share in per cent
20
10
0 6-10 t 10-12 t 12-14 t 14-16 t over 16 t
49 Germany New Registrations of Tippers
10,000 After three years of decline tipper new 9,000 registrations have started to increase again in 2004.
8,000 9,995
9,181 tipper up to 6 t tipper over 6 t 7,000
6,000 7,417 5,000 5,856 units 4,000 5,553
3,000 +24% 2,000 +2%
1,000 2,703 2,439 2,312 1,676 2,211 2,040 2,033 575 584 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 up to May up to May 2003 2004
50 Germany New Registrations of Semitrailer Tractors
30,000 40 hr fsmtalrtract semitrailer of share
25,000 36 28,457 27,895 omrilvhce vr6t over vehicles commercial 25,967 24,972 25,630 20,000 32 23,751 20,039 19,344 15,000 +20% 28 r nnwrgsrtosof registrations new in ors 17,632 17,093 15,903 10,000 24 13,355 11,480 11,468 11,137 new registrations in units 5,000 The demand for semitrailer tractors is 20 on record levels right now. 0 16 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 up to up to May May 2003 2004
51 Germany Heavy Trailer Sales
2,400 up to May 2004: +30% 2,200
2,000 semitrailer 1,800
1,600 units 1,400
1,200 heavy multi-axle trailer 1,000 up to May 2004: +15% 800 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures
52 Germany New Registrations of Motor Caravans and Caravans
2,800 up to May 2004: -4%
2,400
caravans
2,000 units 1,600
1,200 motor caravans up to May 2004: +7% 800 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures
53 Germany Foreign Orders and Exports of CV up to 6 t
33,000 foreign demand** up to June 2004*: +26% 29,000
25,000
21,000 units
17,000 up to June 2004*: +5%
13,000 exports 9,000 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures * Change figures are based on previous year figures that were corrected later due to the move of production sites ** Incl. intake of orders for vehicles from foreign production (in Europe) 54 Germany Exports of CV up to 6 t in Selected Countries*, up to May 2004
2,596 (-19%) Belgium Exports: 58,500 (+3%) (+337%) Turkey 3,841 EU-15: 44,700 (+4%) new EU-10: 3,800 (-2%) (-16%) year in brackets) Italy 3,912 Asia: 4,700 (+163%)
(+4%) Spain 4,260
Exports in units (-4%) Netherlands 4,605
(+3%) France 7,156 (Change against previous (+25%) United Kingdom 14,338
0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
* Exports adjusted due to move of production
55 Germany Foreign Orders and Exports of CV over 6 t
13,000 up to June 2004: +34% 12,000
11,000 foreign demand** 10,000 units 9,000
8,000 exports 7,000 up to June 2004: +14% 6,000 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures ** Incl. intake of order for vehicles from foreign production (in Europe) 56 Germany Exports of CV over 6 t in Selected Countries, up to May 2004
1,623 (+65%) Poland Exports: 43,700 (+11%)
1,730 (+15%) EU-15: 25,400 (-1%) South Africa new EU-10: 4,200 (+30%) Asia: 7,500 (+40%) Turkey 1,841 (+153%) year in brackets) Africa: 2,900 (+17%) (+1%) Austria 1,922
3,810 (+2%)
Exports in units Spain
(-18%) Italy 3,898
4,956 (-7%)
(Change against previous France
(+8%) United Kingdom 5,783
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
57 Germany Exports of CV over 16 t in Important Asian Countries
This year to date exports of CV over 16 t to Asia have increased above average by 41 per cent. Oman 419 (+116%)
up to May 2003 United Ar. Emirates 806 (+22%) up to May 2004 year in brackets)
Kuwait 881 (+2,281%)
Exports in units Saudi Arabia 983 (-40%)
Iran 1,073 (+71%) (Change against previous Turkey (+122%) 1,472
0 400 800 1,200 1,600
58 Germany Exports of Used Commercial Vehicles to Eastern Europe
100,000 98,996 89,239 In this year‘s first five months a total of (-10%) 90,000 49,700 used CV was shipped abroad (+21%),
80,000 31,500 of which were sent to Eastern Europe (+22%) and 7,000 of those (+16%) to Poland. 70,000 63,655 60,000 up to April 2004 Trucks < 5t 16,826 (+21%) 50,000 Trucks > 5t 9,535 (+18%) 46,025 Semitrailer tractors 3,870 (+28%) units 40,000 Buses 1,276 (+51%) 31,507 (+22%) 28,435 27,522 30,000 25,856 22,891 19,040 20,000 17,731 14,152 11,371 9,747 10,000
0 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 -04/03 -04/04
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
59 Germany Domestic Production by Federal States and GWR
55,000 57 per cent of all cv over 16 t are buses: 3,957 buses (+4%) 50,000 produced in the state of Rhineland- over 16t: 50,163 cv (+18%) Palatinate. The state of North Rhine- 45,000 over 6 up to 16t: 11,026 cv (+9%) Westphalia accounts for 64 per cent of 40,000 the production of cv up to 6 t. up to 6t: 80,326 cv (-11%)
35,000 1,441 30,000 4,266
25,000 51,093 28,448 units 20,000
15,000 354 28,204 10,000 2,161 5,000 11,998 331 1,287 9,408 5,451 323 361 345 0 Baden- Bavaria Brandenburg Lower North Rhine- Rhineland- Thuringia Wuerttemberg Saxony Westphalia Palatinate
60 Germany Production of German Commercial Vehicles over 6 t
12,000
CV over 16 t 10,000
8,000 up to May 2004: +18% 6,000 units Production of CV over 6 t in full swing. 4,000 up to May 2004: +9% CV over 6 up to 16 t 2,000
0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures
61 Germany Bus Production and Sales
1,300 Production and sales accelerating. 1,200
1,100 up to June 2004: 1,000 +9% Production 900
800 units Exports 700 up to June 2004: 600 +24% 500 up to June 2004: 400 +1% New Registrations 300 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Trends and seasonally-adjusted monthly figures
62 Germany German Production Abroad up to May 2004
60,000 buses: 19,647 buses (+9%)
6,281 over 16 t: 54,231 cv (+35%) 50,000 9,762 over 6 up to 16 t: 34,723 cv (+20%) up to 6 t: 76,947 cv (-17%) 1,757 40,000 2,955 5,181 18,443 29,666 30,000 The focus of German production abroad lies for CV up to 6 t in units 237 49 Europe and for CV over 6 t as well 20,000 12,752 as for buses in America. 32,377 16,378 22,592 10,000 13,779 1,504 4,617 106 3,167 3,582 0 363 EU-15 new EU-10 Latin North Eastern Western Africa America America Asia Asia
63 Germany German Production Abroad up to May 2004
USA 49.381
Brazil 18.657 23.253
Spain 23.672
Poland 21.886 286 Belgium 10.176
Mexico 8.864 DaimlerChrysler: 119,500 cv (incl. buses) Ford: 10,200 cv Austria 8.196 units MAN: 8,900 cv (incl. buses) Canada 7.561 VW: 46,900 cv Turkey 4.571 463
Argentina 3.306 656
South Africa 3.194 388 up to May 2004: 185,500 cv (+3 per cent)
others 706
0332 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000
64 Germany Foreign Trade Balance of the Commercial Vehicle Industry* in 2003: 6.4 billion €
United Kingdom 1,009,744 Spain 606,233 Italy 547,562 France 456,854 Czech Rep. 152,890 Hungary 144,531 Poland -248,061 new EU-10 242,224 92,955 in billion euro USA 173,326 EU-25 is main trade partner of the NAFTA the German CV industry (73 per cent) 109,789 Latin America (7 per cent of which new EU China 98,358 countries). Japan -45,004 Asia total 890,156 Africa 372,458
-250,000 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000
*Overall commercial vehicle exports - imports (incl. used vehicles)
65 Germany Exports of the German Commercial Vehicle Industry
14
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 12 12.4
10 11.1
% % 8 9 5 2 +1 8 : +1 3 : 9 3 9 9 1 9 / /1 3 3 0 0 0 0 6 2 2 in billion euro 4.9 4 4.8 5% +17 93: 3/19 200 2 2.9
0 1.1 CV manufacturers Trailers and bodies CV parts industry
66 Germany Turnover of the German Commercial Vehicle Industry
45 43.5 CV parts industry 42.0 40 Trailers and bodies 12.1 CV manufacturers total 34.4 11.5 35
30 27.6 9.2 6.5 6.9 23.0 25 21.0 7.5 5.9 20 4.4 in billion euro 5.0 4.8 5.3 15 6.0 24.0 24.5 10 19.3 15.3 13.3 5 10.0
0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
67 Germany Employment Situation in the German CV Industry, 2003
CV manufacturers 76,000
car manufacturers CV industry Trailers and bodies 577,200 196,000 36,000
CV parts industry 84,000
In Germany 2.5 million jobs depend on the production, sales and use of commercial vehicles.
68 Freight Transport in Germany up to 2015
700
600 road inland waterways 500 rail 485.0 400
361.4 300 in billion tonne kilometres 200 169.9 125.4 78.6 90.0 65.0 100 48.8 51.4 54.8 115.0 71.5 64.9 61.9 74.0 0 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015
Source: DIW, BMVBW, PROGNOS
69 Freight Transportation by Modes in the New EU-Member States
350 road rail inland waterways 4.7 300 4.0
100.2 250 2.9 93.0
200 90.3 150 in billion tkm
207.2 100 189.7
130.8 50
0 2000 2010 2015
Source: prog trans AG *Poland, Czech Rep., Hungary, Slovenia, Estonia 70 Freight Transport in Europe by Freight Category in 2001 Shares of Modes of Transport in per cent of Tonne Kilometres
vehicles, machinery 85% 14% 1% manufactured articles
chemicals and fertilisers 74% 18% 8%
cement and building 79% 9% 12% materials
ore, steel and other metal 60% 33% 7% products
petroleum and petroleum 57% 22% 21% products
coal 21% 41% 38%
agricultural products 90% 7% 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% road rail inland waterways
Source: EU Commission
71 Infrastructure Investment per Unit Output per Kilometer in Germany
50
45
40
35
30
25 passenger and tonne kilometres
(in 1995 prices) 20
15
10
5 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 in million euro billion per
road rail inland waterways
Source: DIW, own calculations
72 Reduction in Exhaust Gas Thresholds in Europe
100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100%
80% 1990 1993 1996 2000 2005 2008 70%
60%
50% 56% 51% 49% 46%
40% 46% 40%
30% 36% 34% 32% 20% 25% 22% 22% 21% 18% 10% 18% 15% 3% 3% 13%
0% 7% CO HC NOx Particles
73 Freight Transportation in Germany Decoupling of km driven from tkm
600
km driven (in billion km) billion tkm 500
400
300
200
100
0
5 9 1 5 7 1 5 1 5 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1987 1 1 1993 199 1 1999 2 2003 2 2007 2009 2 2013 201
Source: ifo, DIW, prognos, VDA
74 Germany Yearly Financial Burden of a 40 t - Truck
25,000 23.112 tax on oil 1,521 motor vehicle tax 20,000 17.991 16.920 549 399 15.528 15,000 716 12.117
Euro 511 21,591 10,000 17,442 16,521 14,812 11,606 5,000
0 Germany France Italy Netherlands Luxembourg
Source: BGL * burden in 2003 for a 40 t - truck, Euro II, with air suspension in long-distance traffic, 135,000 km/year, 34 l/100 km fuel consumption 75 Germany Sales Trend in Express Courier & Parcel Services
16 Strong sales growth in Express Courier & Parcel Services 16.36 - a consequence of e-commerce - but impossible without commercial vehicles for delivery. 14
13.0 12
10.74 10 9.91 in billion euro 9.41 9.00 8 7.48 7.76
6
4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2003 2005*
Source: BdKEP * Forecast
76