UK £2 Issue 188, Year 4 January 13, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Uncertainties Arab Gulf over Arab support to summit in Beirut Pakistan

Page 14 Page 5 US reiterates commitment to counter Iran, faces more tensions with Turkey ► Amid uncertainties about US relations with Turkey, Pompeo and Bolton tried to hammer home their message that the real danger in the region was Iran.

Thomas Seibert no contradiction between Trump’s promise of a quick withdrawal of US forces deployed in Syria and a Istanbul statement by Bolton, who said the pullout depended on several con- high-level exercise in dam- ditions in connection with Turkey, age control by the United ISIS and Iran. States aimed at calming US Army Colonel Sean Ryan, A nerves in the Middle East spokesman for the coalition fight- following US President Donald ing ISIS, on January 11 said the Trump’s abrupt announcement to United States had started “the pro- withdraw US troops from Syria has cess of our deliberate withdrawal had mixed results. from Syria.” US Secretary of State Mike “President Trump has made the Pompeo and national security ad- decision to bring our troops home viser John Bolton embarked on from Syria,” Pompeo said. “We al- separate tours of Middle Eastern ways do and now is the time but countries, insisting that the US this isn’t a change of mission. We withdrawal from Syria would not remain committed to the complete weaken the fight against the Islamic dismantling of the ISIS threat and State (ISIS) or against Iran’s aggres- the ongoing fight against radical Is- sive regional policies. lamism in all of its forms.” “When America retreats, chaos often follows,” Pompeo said in a Pompeo announced that Damage control. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (C) tours the newly inaugurated al Fattah al-Aleem speech in Cairo. “America will not mosque in Egypt’s new administrative capital, January 10. (AFP) there would be a US-led retreat until the terror fight is over.” international conference Pompeo maintained that Turk- in February in Poland to ish President Recep Tayyip Erdog- sending in its troops. ing, he told Fox News, would “focus Trump made dismantling the discuss containing an had promised that the Kurdish Experts said that the US with- on Middle East stability and peace Iran nuclear deal a major cam- Iran’s activities in People’s Protection Units (YPG) drawal might not give Ankara the and freedom and security here in paign promise and he unilaterally the Middle East. militia, which is allied with the free hand it wants to deal with its this region and that includes an withdrew from the agreement last United States in Syria, would not be Kurdish nemeses. “Turkey man- important element of making sure May. The United States has since However, Turkey’s stated deter- harmed after the American with- aged to launch two operations in that Iran is not a destabilising influ- reimposed economic sanctions on mination to send troops to fight US drawal. The Turkish government Syria because Russia gave the green ence.” Tehran, including on its oil exports, allies in Syria, despite a request by said no such promise was made. light,” Tol said by telephone, in Pompeo used a speech in Cairo shipping and banking industries. Washington to hold back, shows Rising tensions between the reference to Turkish incursions in to dismiss efforts by Trump’s pre- “The US reimposed sanctions that key actors in the region remain United States and Turkey became 2016 and 2018. “If America is out of decessor, Barack Obama, to engage that should never have been lifted. unimpressed. visible during a visit by Bolton to the picture, Russia might be not as Iran in a dialogue, which produced We embarked on a new pressure Trump’s order to pull out US Ankara when Erdogan refused to willing to accept a Turkish presence the international nuclear agree- campaign to cut off the revenues troops was followed with conflict- meet with the US official. in Syria.” ment with Tehran. the regime uses to spread terror ing announcements that have left A day after Bolton left, Turkish Amid uncertainties about US re- “Remember: It was here, here in and destruction throughout the many in the Middle East unsure of Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu lations with Turkey, Pompeo and this very city, another American world… Countries can increasingly the Americans’ strategy. “There is underlined Turkey’s criticism that Bolton tried to hammer home their stood before you,” Pompeo said in understand that we must confront confusion about what the US wants the YPG was a “terrorist organisa- message that the real danger in the reference to Obama. “He told you the ayatollahs, not coddle them,” to do,” said Gonul Tol, director of tion that poses a threat to us and region was Iran. that the United States and the Mus- Pompeo said. the Centre for Turkish Studies at the United States supports them.” Pompeo announced that there lim world needed ‘a new beginning.’ the Middle East Institute in Wash- Speaking to the Turkish broad- would be a US-led international The results of these misjudgements Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly ington. caster NTV, Cavusoglu suggested conference in February in Poland have been dire,” Pompeo told a se- correspondent. During his talks with Egyptian that Turkey might not wait for to discuss containing Iran’s activi- lect group of Egyptian officials, for- officials, Pompeo said there was the US forces to leave Syria before ties in the Middle East. The gather- eign diplomats and students. P2-3 Houthis torpedo UN peace efforts with deadly drone attack

Saleh Baidhani The attack came as the United Na- will not go unanswered and the tions was trying to build on the ap- government will take a strong and parent success of talks last month firm position,” Yemeni Information Aden in Sweden to end the almost 4-year Minister Muammar al-Iriyani wrote civil war. on Twitter. Houthi rebel drone attack The Houthis and the interna- Iriyani called on the interna- on a Yemeni government tionally recognised government tional community and the UN Se- military base shattered the signed an agreement that included curity Council to condemn “the A peace process, observers a ceasefire for Hodeidah province; terrorist attack” and to take strong said, compromising UN diplomatic however, fighting between the two action against the Houthis, who efforts and eliminating goodwill sides continued in other parts of the “have become a real threat to re- generated in December’s talks in country. gional and international security Sweden. Although the drone attack on Al and maritime trade in the Red Sea.” Six Yemeni soldiers were killed Anad Airbase did not violate the Yemeni Minister of State Osman and several high-ranking officials ceasefire, it could lead to renewed Majali told Sky News Arabia that the injured January 10 in a Houthi violence that might jeopardise fu- attack shows that the Houthis have drone attack on a military base in ture talks. ended the UN-brokered peace deal. southern government-controlled “The attack may be the final nail UN Special Envoy to Yemen Mar- Lahij province. in the coffin of the [Sweden] agree- tin Griffiths called for restraint after Lahij Governor Ahmed Abdul- ment,” Yemeni military expert Colo- the attack. Griffiths, in a posting on lah al-Turki, Yemeni Chief of Staff nel Yahya Abuhatm said. Twitter, said he was alarmed by the Major-General Abdullah al-Nakhi, “There must be a severe response escalation of violence and urged Brigadier-General Thabet Jawas and by the national army on various “all parties to the conflict to exer- spokesman for the Fourth Military fronts, while also galvanising their cise restraint and refrain from fur- Zone Mohammed al-Naqib were in- political and diplomatic efforts to ther escalation.” jured during the attack, Sky News highlight to the international com- Arabia reported. munity the true face of the Hou- Saleh Baidhani is an Arab Weekly Houthi television channel Al Ma- this,” he added. contributor in Yemen. sirah also confirmed the attack. “The crime of targeting the base P4 2 January 13, 2019 Cover Story

Pompeo attempts to assuage concerns in Baghdad

Thomas Frank

Washington

S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an unan- nounced visit to Iraq, U meeting with the coun- try’s top political leaders and Kurdish officials to assure them that the United States continues to support Iraq and the fight against the Islamic State. Pompeo stopped in Baghdad and Erbil January 9 as part of his un- precedented tour of nine Middle Eastern countries aimed at reas- suring US allies that were startled by US President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement Decem- ber 19 that he would withdraw US troops from Syria. “It was a great set of conversa- tions, a great set of partners and a common understanding that the battle against Daesh — to counter Daesh — and the fight to counter Iran [are] real and important and something each of us needs to be active participants in,” Pompeo said after meeting with members of the Iraqi Kurdistan government. Pompeo’s use of the word “Daesh,” an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State (ISIS), indicates the extent to which his message is aimed at the Arab world and not Americans, who are paying lit- tle attention to the Middle East as large parts of the US federal gov- ernment remain shut down over a budget dispute. Pompeo’s meetings in Baghdad In the crossfire. Iraqi soldiers stand guard near the Iraqi city of Qaim at the border with Syria, last November. (AFP) with Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, President Barham Salih and parliament Speaker and territorial integrity.” Pompeo US,” Salih said after meeting with ing with Turkish President Recep Mohammed al-Halbousi sought agreed the United States would US Secretary of State Pompeo, a pool report said. “ISIS Tayyip Erdogan, who vowed to to reassure officials angered by continue to work with Iraqi Secu- Mike Pompeo said talks is defeated militarily but [the] mis- push Kurdish fighters back from Trump’s December 26 trip to Iraq rity Forces “to ensure ISIS’s lasting reflected “a common sion is not accomplished.” the Syria-Turkey border. in which he visited US troops but defeat throughout the region.” understanding that the In Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s “These have been folks who did not meet with Iraqi leaders and In meeting with Salih, Pompeo battle against Daesh… Kurdish region, Pompeo faced an- have fought with us and it’s im- made inflammatory comments emphasised “the importance of and the fight to counter other challenge, reassuring Kurds portant that we do everything about the US military presence in Iraq as a strategic partner in the that the United States would not we can to ensure that those folks Iraq. region,” the State Department re- Iran [are] real and abandon them in Syria after they who fought with us are protected,” The Iran-backed Islamic Dawa lease said. Pompeo told Halbousi important.” helped fight ISIS in Syria. The US Pompeo said, referring to the Syr- Party said at the time that Trump’s that the United States was commit- proximately 2,000 troops from troop withdrawal from Syria raised ian Democratic Forces and the visit showed “no respect for the ted to “addressing Iraq’s security north-eastern Syria raised con- concerns that Turkey would move Kurdish People’s Protection Units, country’s sovereignty or the norms challenges, including the continu- cerns in Iraq that Trump would into Syria and attack Kurdish mili- which Ankara calls a terrorist of diplomacy.” ation of our security partnership order the withdrawal of 5,200 US tias. group. A US State Department release with Iraqi Security Forces,” the troops there that helped oust ISIS US national security adviser said Pompeo emphasised “the US State Department said. from large parts of northern Iraq. John Bolton travelled to Turkey Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly commitment to Iraq’s sovereignty The US plan to remove its ap- “We will need the support of the January 8 but left without meet- correspondent in Washington. US announces international meeting to put pressure on Iran

The Arab Weekly staff Pompeo has said during his Bringing in Middle East trip that the United the EU. Polish States is “redoubling” efforts to Foreign Washington pressure Iran and has sought to Minister convince allies that it is com- Jacek he United States and Po- mitted to fighting the Islamic Czaputowicz land will convene an in- State despite US President Don- during an ternational conference ald Trump’s decision to pull US interview in Warsaw. (AP) T on the Middle East that troops out of Syria. will seek to build pressure on Trump last year withdrew Iran, US Secretary of State Mike the United States from the 2015 Pompeo said. Iran nuclear accord and moved The United States and Poland, to reimpose sanctions on Teh- in a joint announcement, said ran. Other partners in the deal ministers from around the world — including Britain, France, Ger- would be invited to the February many, Russia and China — have 13-14 meeting in Warsaw. sought to keep the agreement from unravelling, although, in a shift January 8, the European Polish Foreign Minister Union moved to impose some Jacek Czaputowicz said sanctions on Iran. more than 70 countries Polish Foreign Minister Jacek were invited to the Czaputowicz said in a statement conference, including all that, while Poland supported EU members. the European Union’s efforts to maintain the nuclear deal, the Pompeo, on a multi-country agreement “does not stop Iran tour of the Middle East, said from activities destabilising the the conference would “bring to- region” and he hoped the confer- gether dozens of countries from ence would bring closer the EU all around the world, from Asia, and US positions. from Africa, from Western Hemi- He said more than 70 countries sphere countries, Europe, too, were invited to the conference, the Middle East, of course.” including all EU members. Participants would “focus on Iranian Foreign Minister Mo- “The ministerial [meeting] will A State Department spokesman countries with differing views Middle East stability and peace hammad Javad Zarif, posting on address a range of critical issues acknowledged that Poland, like on the nuclear deal can come to- and freedom and security… and Twitter, said that “while Iran including terrorism and extrem- other European countries, sup- gether to address other critical is- that includes an important ele- saved Poles in WWII, it (Poland) ism, missile development and ports the international accord on sues in the region.” ment of making sure that Iran is now hosts desperate anti-Iran proliferation, maritime trade and limiting the Iranian nuclear pro- not a destabilising influence,” he circus.” security and threats posed by gramme but the Warsaw meeting (With Agence France-Presse and added. The US State Department said: proxy groups across the region.” “sends an important signal that Reuters.) January 13, 2019 3 Cover Story

Is Trump’s America a force for good in the Middle East?

Slighted. US national security Ali Alfoneh adviser John Bolton (L) speaks to Turkish presidential merica is a force spokesman for good in the Ibrahim “ Middle East,” US Kalin (R) Secretary of State following Mike Pompeo their meeting declared in his in Ankara, much-advertisedA Cairo address. He January 8. offered criticism of past Ameri- (AFP) can leaders for being “absent too much” and showing “reluctance to wield influence.” Pompeo said: “When America re- treats, chaos often follows. When we neglect our friends, resentment builds.” It was a reference to Iran’s conflict with key Arab allies of the United States. US national secu- rity adviser John Bolton delivered much the same message to other key US allies in the Middle East. Those countries have every reason to be happy with the US secretary of state’s address and the national security adviser’s assur- ances but they also have every reason to doubt whether Pompeo said “deliberate” troop withdrawal in Tehran. Such a deal would not its clutches. Hezbollah also keeps and Bolton speak for their mercu- was under way. Bolton assures include the human rights of the a front open against Israel. The rial and unpredictable boss, US Washington’s Kurdish allies in Iranian people. war in Yemen continues despite President Donald Trump. Syria that it will not abandon them With such discrepancies and diplomatic talks. All the while the How can anyone believe the to their fate and Pompeo reiterates stark contradictions on policy at Saudis, Emiratis and Israelis band promises of the secretary of state his well-known position that Ira- the highest levels of the US govern- ever closer to try to counterbalance and the national security adviser nian and allied forces “must leave ment, one can hardly blame Aya- the threat from Tehran. when placed alongside the state- Syria” but, very recently, Trump tollah Ali Khamenei for perceiving In the absence of American ments of the US president? declared the Iranians “can do what American statesmen as “first-class leadership, the Middle Eastern Examples abound: Pompeo said they want” in Syria. fools.” “self-help system” descended into the United States remains commit- To add insult to injury, the US Two years into Trump’s presi- proxy wars but did avoid a greater ted to the fight against the Islamic president said his Turkish counter- dential term, his administration catastrophe. The region avoided State (ISIS) in Syria but, in Decem- part, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will has yet to craft a coherent Middle direct wars between the regional ber, Trump declared a US with- take care of the situation in Syria. East policy so Washington can great powers but should Wash- drawal from Syria was imminent. Erdogan cannot be considered avoid sending mixed signals. In the ington’s zigzag course continue, On January 11, a spokesman for the a friend of Syrian Kurds so the absence of a comprehensive policy, there is no guarantee that such a US-led military coalition in Syria prospect outlined by Trump would Washington’s friends and foes alike great-power war can be avoided in hardly be a source of consolation may pursue their own agendas. the future. to them. That would contribute to further And one can reasonably doubt In the absence of a Pompeo criticised the Obama regional instability. whether Trump’s America is a administration for forsaking the ISIS, assured of Trump’s incli- force for good in the Middle East comprehensive policy, Iranian people in the face of the nation to disentangle the United region. Washington’s friends and foes oppressive Islamic Republic but States from the Middle East, alike may pursue their own Trump has, on more than one entrenches its military presence Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at occasion, declared his readiness in Syria. Tehran’s allied Lebanese the Arab Gulf States Institute in agendas. to reach a deal with the regime Hezbollah militia keeps Lebanon in Washington. Washington’s erratic policy baffles friends and foes

of Trump’s decision to exit Syria or military officers with weak Washington. within 30 days. institutional cultures, Washington Washington’s traditional allies Geoffrey Diplomats followed the has been recognised by friend and uniformly oppose the US retreat Aronson traditional script, meeting with foe alike as all the stronger for the from Syria, while its enemies — colleagues and being briefed by national consensus supporting Russia, Syria and Iran — welcome State Department, Pentagon and a governing and policymaking it. All have learned, however, that White House officials — anyone system that works. putting one’s trust in Washington’s who could throw some light on the In the old days, this fundamental policies on Monday risks being riends and enemies of president’s decision to pull out of assumption made perfect sense. exposed and embarrassed by a Washington alike are Syria, which he described as a land Not now. change of policy on Friday. struggling to under- of “sand and death.” In Trump’s Washington, senior “With this president,” observed a stand US policy towards Countries traditionally send their officials are no better sources of senior Israeli defence official to Al- Syria. Erratic, uncoordi- best and brightest diplomats to authoritative information than Monitor, “anything could happen. nated and with a strong Washington. Up-and-coming young the doorman at the Willard Hotel For good and bad. There is no well- Ftendency towards the irrational professionals covet a posting to the and a policymaking process by any thought-out policy, no clear pattern are not prized policy attributes but United States as an opportunity to historical US standard hardly exists. of behaviour, no orderly decision- they offer a good description of win recognition by senior ministers There is only one “decider” but making. You wake up each morning what one US politician called the back home and to secure a place on when he governs by caprice and hoping for the best. In the Trump Trump administration’s “drunken the diplomatic fast track. policy is hostage to his latest whim era, we simply have to be ready for sailor” approach to foreign policy They have been unusually busy — when there is no longer a “US anything and not be surprised by decision-making. since Trump’s precipitous and, policy” — what are diplomats to do? any scenario.” There was a time when a meeting as it now turns out, premature One can imagine the surprise and Russian President Vladimir with an assistant secretary at the announcement of US withdrawal dislocation that occurs when, as in Putin is no fan of Washington or its US State Department or regional from Syria. Diplomats are riding a recent weeks, Washington has so ways but his response to Trump’s director at the National Security wild horse, attempting to transmit obviously failed to work. How do bombshell announcement reveals Council would help one understand to their capitals a coherent and you tell your minister or president that Putin understands the limits of the meaning and direction of considered framework that will that there is no value to the Trump’s power even better than the US policy. No longer. In Trump’s enable their ministers and leaders traditional effort to fathom what American president himself. Washington, it may be possible to to anticipate, understand and under Trump is unfathomable? “As concerns the withdrawal of get an authoritative briefing on US respond to US policy. Ask Turkish President Recep American troops,” he explained policy but it would be foolhardy to Leaders across the world have Tayyip Erdogan, who was December 20 in his annual news trust it. been searching for evidence of betrayed by his faith in the “clear conference, “I do not know what The crisis over US policy on Syria some compelling insight, some agreement” reached with Trump that is. The United States has is only the latest and perhaps the magic key to understand policy in during a phone call in early been present in, say, Afghanistan, most transparent case in point. the Trump era but they are using December. “Despite the fact that for how long? Seventeen years. More than one diplomat spent the tools that, however useful in the we reached a clear agreement with And every year they talk about holiday break trying to answer past, offer little insight into how the Mr Trump, different voices have withdrawing the troops but they urgent requests from home capitals Trump White House makes policy been raised from different echelons are still there. So far, we have seeking to understand the meaning today. of the US administration,” Erdogan not seen any evidence of their Generations of foreign officials said. withdrawal but I suppose it is have been raised on the premise Under Trump, policy decisions possible.” Diplomats are riding a wild that the United States’ greatest like the ones on Syria have an “Alice Indeed. horse, attempting to transmit strength is the recognised authority in Wonderland” quality — down is and legitimacy of its governing up and up is down — complicating Geoffrey Aronson is a to their capitals a coherent and institutions. For diplomats, many efforts in world capitals to non-resident scholar at the Middle considered framework. of whom report to dictators understand what is going on in East Institute in Washington. 4 January 13, 2019 News & Analysis Yemen Houthi drone attack ratchets up Yemen tensions

Saleh Baidhani Among them were Chief of Staff Major-General Abdullah al-Nakhi, Brigadier-General Thabet Jawas, Aden spokesman for the Fourth Military Zone Mohammed al-Naqib and La- n what could greatly hamper hij Governor Ahmed Abdullah al- the Yemeni peace efforts, Yem- Turki, Sky News Arabia reported. en’s Iran-allied Houthi rebels The Houthis’ Al Masirah televi- I launched a drone attack on a sion said the Houthi “drone force” military base in the southern gov- had attacked troops at Al Anad. ernment-controlled Lahij province, “The attack may be the final nail killing six soldiers. in the coffin of the [ceasefire] agree- Although the attack did not vio- ment,” said Yemeni military expert late the deal negotiated in Decem- Colonel Yahya Abuhatm. “There ber in Sweden over fighting for the must be a severe response by the port of Hodeidah, it could lead to national army on various fronts Calculated escalation? Soldiers inspect the scene of a Houthi drone attack at Al Anad Airbase in Lahij renewed violence jeopardising the while also galvanising political and province, January 10. (Reuters) prospect of future peace talks. diplomatic efforts to highlight to the international community the true face of the Houthis.” The timing of the attack, he litia in Sana’a and with Hadi in Ri- “military experts.” A day before the drone The government of Abd Rabbo wrote, was a “strong blow” to UN- yadh. The Yemeni government, its sup- attack, a ballistic missile Mansour Hadi issued a statement sponsored peace efforts in Yemen. Griffiths, writing on Twitter, said porters in the Gulf Cooperation exploded as the Houthis calling the attack a “blatant chal- The Houthi militia and Yem- he was alarmed by the escalation of Council and the United States have were apparently trying lenge” to the international com- eni government officials signed an violence and urged “all parties to blamed Iran for upgrading the Hou- to launch it towards munity and that it represented a agreement in December for a cease- the conflict to exercise restraint and this’ military capabilities, especial- Saudi Arabia. “clear indication” that the Houthis fire in Hodeidah province. How- refrain from further escalation.” ly its drone attacks. rejected efforts to reach a political ever, the Yemeni government has A day before the drone attack, A 2018 UN report on a study of The attack occurred January 10 settlement to end the war. complained of many truce breaches a ballistic missile exploded as the the Houthis’ Qatef-1 drone said the during a military parade at Al Anad “The crime of targeting the base by the rebels. Houthis were apparently trying weapon was assembled from com- Airbase. In addition to the six sol- will not go unanswered and the The drone attack came while UN to launch it towards Saudi Arabia, ponents supplied by an outside diers killed, senior commanders in government will take a strong and Special Envoy Martin Griffiths was Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV re- source and shipped into Yemen and the army of Yemen’s internation- firm position,” Yemeni Information trying to convince warring factions ported. It said the missile explod- that its design, dimensions and ca- ally recognised government were Minister Muammar al-Iriyani wrote to agree to further peace talks. He ed on its platform in Saada prov- pability were identical to the Iran- injured. on Twitter. met recently with the Houthi mi- ince, killing 15 people, including made Ababil-T drone.

Viewpoint The quest for a mirage in Yemen nyone who believes it does not represent much of Yemen. is possible to reach an The Houthis too do not represent Khairallah agreement with the Yemen or even northern Yemen. Khairallah Houthis within the One wonders if Griffiths knew context of the current these facts or was it perhaps that balance of power in his goal was to keep the “legiti- YemenA is looking for a mirage. macy” camp in limbo on the out- If the purpose of the United skirts of Hodeidah until a certain Nations in Yemen and the interna- scenario becomes a fait accompli? tional community behind it is to This scenario calls for establishing give the impression they are deal- a Houthi entity on some part of ing with the disaster unleashed in Yemen while most of the Yemeni Yemen, then the secretary-gen- coast remains under the control of eral’s envoy, Martin Griffiths, can other forces, in addition to allow- get ready for endless shuttle trips ing a Houthi presence in Hodeidah between Sana’a and Riyadh. under international supervision. There are no indications that the This is then the gist of the final Houthis are interested in imple- deal that the agreement reached menting the latest UN-brokered in Sweden was paving the way to. agreement and yet UN Secretary- There is only one problem with General Antonio Guterres was that and the deal brokers do not keen on going to Sweden to Manoeuvres to buy time. A member of the Houthi-allied coast seem to give it any consideration: witness for himself the signing of guard force gestures to rebel fighters before they withdraw from The Houthis cannot be trusted. the agreement in the presence of the Red Sea city of Hodeidah, December 29. (Reuters) Griffiths may have his own agen- British Foreign Secretary Jeremy da that considers that the Houthis Hunt, whose country has a special Among the details of great im- of Mukalla so Iran could declare are constantly manoeuvring. The interest in the future of Hodeidah portance in Yemen is the role of the that it controlled two vital straits evidence for the Houthis’ favourite and its port. Houthis at local and regional lev- for international navigation — Hor- game is their assassination of for- The Houthis have done away els. The Houthis have a project for muz and Bab el Mandeb. mer President Ali Abdullah Saleh with the most important parts of Yemen, all right. It was outlined by The Houthis were driven out of in December 2017, after using him this much-touted agreement that their leader Abdelmalik al-Houthi Aden and Mocha by Arab coali- to consolidate their control. Once places Hodeidah under UN control. immediately after seizing Sana’a in tion forces but they remained his usefulness was over, they did They practically smothered the September 2014. entrenched in Hodeidah. The Arab not hesitate to eliminate him in essence of the agreement. The goal of the Houthis then was alliance was pressured, starting revenge for the six years of war he That’s why the deal was not to replace the republican regime in last May, not to take Hodeidah and had waged against them. followed up with negotiations for Yemen, which dates to 1962, with its port. Griffiths’s own agenda could be the reopening of Sana’a airport their own, born 52 years later in The question now is why was a sign of a new vision for Yemen. and for exchanging prisoners. The 2014. Al-Houthi announced clearly this pressure exerted and why Perhaps he and others concluded agreement did not prepare for the that the Houthis were writing proceed with the Sweden agree- there is no hope for the reunifica- search of a comprehensive solu- Yemen’s new history. In Houthi jar- ment, which, among other things, tion of the country and, therefore, tion to the Yemeni crisis. Yemen, gon, that means that they wanted means that the Houthis will remain there is no sense avoiding the therefore, remains far from regain- to bring back the era of the imam- in Sana’a and Hodeidah? partitioning of Yemen into smaller ing its historic “happiness.” ate, even though they do not even It is no secret that one of the entities, one of which would be There is a huge problem with have some of the advantages of the sorry reasons for this outcome is reserved for the Houthis. Griffiths in Yemen. He does not Hamid al-Din family, the family of the fact that Griffiths restricted the However, because there is no Because there is no seem to have a complete picture Yemen’s imams. negotiations to just two parties in one to tell the Houthis that enough one to tell the of the situation. It is true that At the regional level, the Houthis the Yemeni conflict — the Houthis is enough, they will refuse to give Houthis that details must be treated as details were nothing more than a pup- and the forces of the so-called up Hodeidah and Sana’a. but some details turn out to be pet in the hands of Iran so they legitimacy alliance — so there was a Can the Arab coalition accept enough is enough, crucial sometimes, especially in a tried to expand all across Yemen problem of representation. that some parties are trying to they will refuse to country that has been fragmented by striking alliances with certain The “legitimacy” camp, led by an impose as a fait accompli? as Yemen has and where details tribes from southern Yemen. They interim president whose mandate give up Hodeidah have become obstacles to progress reached Aden and settled there, was supposed to have ended in Khairallah Khairallah is a and Sana’a. towards a comprehensive solution. then moved on to control the port 2014, needed to be restructured. It Lebanese writer. January 13, 2019 5 News & Analysis Gulf Pakistan Strong Arab Gulf support for Pakistan frustrates Iran’s plans, boosts Khan

Mohammed Alkhereiji

London

head of his election last July, Pakistani Prime Min- ister Imran Khan’s rheto- A ric regarding the Middle East seemed overtly pro-Iranian to many in the Gulf Cooperation Council, despite Pakistan’s history of friendly ties with Gulf countries. In 2015, Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party sup- ported the Iran nuclear agreement, which many in the Gulf saw as empowering Tehran to further its destabilising regional agenda. Khan and the PTI were driving forces in the Pakistani parliament to reject joining the Saudi-led Arab coalition in Yemen in 2015, viewed by many analysts as a proxy war be- tween Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on one side and Iran on the other. “On going in for US-Saudi alliance to fight in Yemen: Has Pakistan not suffered enough by participating in others’ wars?” Khan said on Twitter in March 2015. Strategic ties. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz (R) meets with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in Riyadh, With elections a few years later last October. (SPA) and with political and economic motivations in mind, Iranian offi- Khan with Iranian Foreign Minister his first official overseas trip to Iran $3 billion on oil imports. tached,” Michael Kugelman, deputy cials felt that the time to strengthen Mohammad Javad Zarif, who was were proven false; he opted to visit The Gulf Arab support did not director of the Asia Programme at relations with Islamabad was ripe. first foreign official to visit the new Riyadh instead. The motivations end there. During an official vis- the Wilson Centre in Washington, In terms of economic motivations prime minister. are plentiful. A report from Thom- it January 6 to Islamabad, UAE told Voice of America. and considering renewed sanctions “The fact that Pakistan’s rela- son Reuters said Pakistan is “facing Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed “I imagine in all likelihood Islam- tied to the US withdrawal from the tions with the United States have an economic crisis due to deplet- bin Zayed al-Nahyan said Pakistan abad had to reassert its allegiance to Iran nuclear deal, Tehran was hop- been experiencing some difficulties ing foreign reserves and a widening would be receiving a $3 billion loan KSA [the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] ing that Khan’s election might re- has increased Tehran’s hopes that current account deficit” since Khan package and $3.2 billion in oil im- with the implication that Pakistan vive the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline Islamabad might turn away from took office in August. ports on deferred payment. should back away from the Imran project, which has been in the mak- Washington and its regional allies The Khan government would Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Khan government’s strong asser- ing since 1995. — notably Saudi Arabia but also the either have to work with the Inter- bin Salman bin Abdulaziz is ex- tion of neutrality in the Iran-Saudi The project, which includes a UAE — and strike closer relations national Monetary Fund for a bail- pected to visit Pakistan in February, Arabia rivalry.” 2,800km natural gas pipeline, has with Tehran,” Shireen Hunter, a out, which would impose austerity with speculation in the Pakistani As far as Tehran is concerned, it been plagued with setbacks. Ira- research professor at Georgetown measures further devaluating the media pointing towards further lo- appears that the damage is done. nian officials blamed the United University’s School of Foreign Ser- rupee, results that often lead to cal investments, including finalis- An editorial last November in Iran’s States and Gulf Arab countries for vice, wrote in September. public unrest, or seek financial help ing a memorandum of understand- Mehr News Agency described Khan Pakistan’s lack of commitment in However, it appears that long- elsewhere. ing to establish a petrochemical as being subservient to Riyadh, say- finishing its part of the plan. standing relations, economic re- In October, Riyadh allocated $3 complex in Pakistan. ing: “Speculation had been put to Politically, because of Khan’s alities and the responsibilities of billion in foreign currency support Analysts said the support comes rest. Khan was walking in the foot- parliamentary stances and public leading a country trumped Khan’s for up to a year to help Pakistan’s with a caveat, with some diplomat- steps of his predecessor.” statements, Iran felt that a shift in populist views. balance-of-payments predicament. ic payback likely. relations was at hand. It appeared In September, media reports Saudi Arabia also agreed to a 1-year “It’s unlikely a $6 billion gift Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf Tehran was aggressively courting claiming that Khan would make deferred payment facility of up to would come with no strings at- section editor of The Arab Weekly. Saudi Arabia eyes major investments in Pakistan’s Gwadar

Sabahat Khan timated Aramco would inject $6 ied topography, if adequate security ger” to take advantage of, especial- third of its value against the dollar billion-$10 billion “within the next and better economic management ly with the new Pakistani govern- over the past year. three years” into projects in Paki- could be assured. ment promising special incentives Economic assistance packages Dubai stan. Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power, There has been a flurry of high- to Saudi investors. from Saudi Arabia and the United a developer, investor and operator level visits by Saudi officials and Gwadar port commands a stra- Arab Emirates provided critical re- audi Arabia is lining up in- of power generation plants that has business leaders to Pakistan. Del- tegic location overlooking the Ara- lief when it was most needed and vestments in Pakistan’s Gwa- assets in the United Arab Emirates, egations were led by Ahmad al- bian Sea and can accommodate their significance for Pakistan in dar port and industrial area Jordan and Tunisia, is in advanced Ghamdi, adviser to the minister of super-sized vessels that many re- stabilising a crisis scenario with its S that have been described by planning to enter Pakistan’s renew- Energy and Mineral Resources and gional ports have limited capacity economy cannot be understated. Pakistani Finance Minister Asad able energy sector. another by Omar Rajeh, an adviser to handle. Umar as the “biggest foreign invest- With the country having suffered at the Saudi Exports Development That is highly advantageous in ment” in the country’s history. from acute electricity shortages for Authority. the context of Gwadar port together There has been a flurry Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are decades, Pakistan’s energy sector Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan with Pakistan’s new economic cor- of high-level visits by reportedly finalising a series of in- represents an appealing proposi- Nawaf Saeed al-Maliki said Gwa- ridor providing access to western Saudi officials and vestment packages ahead of a visit tion for investors, especially in re- dar’s emergence under the China- China and Central Asian countries, business leaders to by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed newables considering the potential Pakistan Economic Corridor pre- a region promising significant eco- Pakistan. bin Salman bin Abdulaziz in Febru- of wind, solar and hydraulic sourc- sents opportunities for trade and nomic expansion. ary when memorandums of under- es around the country’s highly var- investment that the Saudis are “ea- Pakistan’s population of 215 mil- Riyadh committed $3 billion as standing are to be signed. lion represents a sizeable market a cash deposit to assist Pakistan, Crown Prince Mohammed’s visit that, if the country can engineer $2 billion of which has been pro- follows a recent stop by Abu Dhabi an economic turnaround, will have vided, and a $3 billion deferred Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed demand for energy resources grow payment facility on the purchase bin Zayed al-Nahyan, his first of- rapidly. Pakistan consumes ap- of oil, which is expected to begin ficial trip to Pakistan in 12 years. proximately 600,000 barrels of oil imminently. The United Arab Emir- The United Arab Emirates extend- per day and its domestic refining ates followed up with the same and ed an assistance package to Paki- capacity has not been able to meet reports suggest China could be ex- stan identical to the Saudi one an- demand for many years. tending a short-term package. nounced in October. Another factor for Saudi interest The focus is shifting to building a Among deals being finalised by is that Pakistan has proven to be an stronger economic partnership and Riyadh is the construction of a large internally unstable but otherwise Pakistan-Saudi trade has potential oil refinery and petrochemicals trustworthy partner in the wider to grow. In 2017, Pakistan’s exports manufacturing complex in Gwadar Middle East, with Riyadh providing to Saudi Arabia were estimated to be owned and operated by Saudi economic and political support on at $400.8 million against imports Aramco. The refinery is touted to numerous occasions. from Saudi Arabia, largely related have a capacity of 100,000 barrels Pakistan’s economy was con- to oil and petrochemicals, of $2.7 per day and will represent one of fronting severe troubles by the time billion. the most modern and largest refin- Imran Khan’s government assumed ery plants in Aramco’s international charge. A spiralling trade deficit Sabahat Khan is based in Dubai portfolio. sent Pakistan’s foreign exchange and maintains a cross-disciplinary Haroon Sharif, chairman of Pa- Strategic gateway. A container is loaded onto a ship in Gwadar reserves into serious deterioration focus in international security, kistan’s Board of Investment, es- port. (Reuters) and its currency lost almost one- defence policy and strategic issues. 6 January 13, 2019 Opinion

Editorial EU’s condemnation of Iranian terrorism

he European Union has decided to impose fresh sanctions against Iran over accusations of acts of terrorism including the assassination of two dissidents of Iranian descent in the Netherlands. This is an unprecedented step by the T28-member community. It is the first time since 2015 that the European Union has enacted sanc- tions on Iran. “EU just agreed to enact sanctions against an Iranian Intelligence Service for its assassination plots on European soil. Strong signal from the EU that we will not accept such behaviour in Europe,” Danish Foreign Minister Anders Samuelsen announced January 8. The sanctions add designated Iranian officials to the European Union’s terrorist list, freezing their assets. The sanctions target two Iranian officials specifically. Saeid Hashemi Moghadam, head of the directorate for internal security of the Ministry for intelligence as well as Iranian deputy minister and director general of intelligence, and Assadol- lah Asadi, a Vienna-based diplomat who is under arrest. Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok and Interior Minister Kajsa Ollongren explained to parliament that the Dutch secret service “has strong indica- tions that Iran was involved in the assassinations © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly of two Dutch nationals of Iranian origin in Almere 2015 and in The Hague in 2017.” The two victims have been identified as Ali Motamed, 56, who was killed in the central city of Iraq’s chaos is not what Almere in 2015, and Ahmad Molla Nissi, 52, who was slain in The Hague in 2017. “The Netherlands considers it probable that Iran Iraqis have dreamt had a hand in the preparation or commissioning of Ibrahim Zobeidi assassinations and attacks on EU territory,” the The widespread chaos in Iraq is a natural and ministers added. If Europe is adopting clearer and firmer positions predictable product of the quota system. on Iran, it is because the behaviour of Iranian authorities on European soil was too glaring to be ou have to hear it to even its “Westernised” leaders noble figures require that they hire ignored. The misbehaviour has forced a response despite the European Union’s willingness to find believe it. Iraqi po- and rulers who carry their turbans gangs to carry their weapons, intimi- compromises to circumvent the effect of US- litical leaders seriously inside their heads and souls, to date their opponents, extort money imposed sanctions on Iran. believe they have provide. Yes, Iraqis had fallen for and, if needed, go to war to guarantee Even after European condemnation, Iran was blessed the Iraqi peo- their leaders’ hollow promises of their survival in power as long as Al- blaming Europe. The sanctions, said Iranian ple with the benefits freedom, justice and unadulterated lah wills it. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif “will not Yof freedom and chide them for democracy. Equally naturally, these great gen- absolve Europe of responsibility for harbouring not appreciating the value of this We need to acknowledge that the tlemen will turn a blind eye on what terrorists.” freedom and for not knowing that primary cause that gave birth to the their guards, parties and militias are “Europeans, incl(uding) Denmark, Holland and many countries in the region are type of freedom currently in Iraq is doing to ordinary citizens. Consider France, harbour MEK,” he added, alluding to the exiled Iranian opposition group the People’s envious of their freedom. the existence of rulers and leaders the kidnapping, torture and killing of Mujahideen of Iran. Like doting, loving fathers im- of Hamoudi’s ilk. These people say peaceful protesters in Basra, Libera- France had previously arrested two suspected parting their wisdom to their inno- the freedom accorded to the people tion Square in Baghdad and in other Iranian agents over a plot to bomb an MEK confer- cent children, Iraqi leaders advise should stop at the feet of the ruler’s provinces in Iraq. This must be the ence near Paris in June. Iraqis to cling to their freedom and freedom to dispose of his subjects kind of freedom Hamoudi was talking Denmark accused Iran in October of planning to protect it from extinction. or the feet of the imam’s free- about, their freedom to break the law kill a member of an Ahvazi opposition group, Turbaned Humam Hamoudi, dom to manage the affairs of his and commit unspeakable crimes. which Tehran has blamed for a September 22 bomb Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq mosque. Should you have the misfortune of attack in Ahvaz, Iran, that killed 25 people. president and one of the major All of this talk about the princi- arguing with them about their defini- The EU sanctions come into the picture as Washington tries to reiterate its strong commit- leaders of the political process in ples in the Universal Declaration tion of freedom, their preachers and ment to countering Iran after US President Donald the country, appeared in a televi- of Human Rights is nonsense, a mouthpieces would rebut that they Trump’s announcement of a sudden American exit sion interview on “Alhurra Iraq” to heresy imported from the world have been “elected by the masses from Syria. The announcement had created doubt talk about freedom in Iraq, boast of infidels and global arrogance. in fair and democratic elections about the US commitment to thwarting Iran’s about it and demand its perennial- Since “every heresy is the work of recognised by countless governments designs in the region. ity. the devil,” as the saying goes, those and especially by the quintessential “You’ll see in the coming days and weeks we are Here is the most important thing who advocate these human rights champions of freedom, the United redoubling all our diplomatic and commercial he said: “No country in the region and strive to promote them would States and Iran.” efforts to put real pressure on Iran,” declared US is like yours… Oh, Iraqis, you must be waging war against Allah, His These poor fellows do not know Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a stopover in Amman. be worthy of this blessing for you Messenger and the whole of the that democracy is not just elections, are living in the ultimate blessing. believers. even if the elections are genuine and Mind that you don’t lose it if you The widespread chaos in Iraq, fair. In any case, what they are used The plight of ignore it or are not thankful for it.” which the rulers of the Green to are elections that they themselves Yes, we in Iraq have a unique Zone call freedom, is a natural and decide, either by intimidating voters refugees in winter type of freedom that can be found predictable product of the quota through violence, misleading fatwas nowhere else in the region; no system that gave the parties and and co-opted judiciary or by buy- s expected, refugees in Lebanon and boundaries and no restrictions. The figures sharing authority in the ing votes with money looted from other countries of the Middle East and only problem is that this freedom is country the absolute power to use the public treasury or flowing from the Mediterranean are having a tough the freedom to live in total chaos. state institutions and authority across the border. time dealing with worsening condi- to pile up fortunes and weapons. tions this winter. This is not the type of freedom The fact of the matter is that the Heavy rain and snow have damaged that the Iraqi people have dreamt They used these fortunes and Iranian occupation of Iraq has had a many of the precariously built of for decades. This is not the weapons to ensure their survival crucial role in sowing chaos in Iraq “informalA settlements” where Syrian refugees live freedom that Iraqis trusted their and their continued monopolisa- and in nurturing it to the point of in Lebanon. In Arsal, a mountainous area in turbaned leaders and rulers in tion of power. making it an integral part of Iraq’s northern Lebanon, the roofs of rudimentary shacks Iraq’s new era of democracy or Naturally, the interests of these new culture. Iran nurtures this chaos collapsed under the weight of the snow. by jealously guarding Iraq’s new class One refugee told Agence France-Presse on of mercenaries and bloodsuckers. January 8: “There’s no food, no bread and the road Our people in Iraq will never taste has been closed since yesterday.” UNHCR spokeswoman Lisa Abou Khaled said: real freedom until these bloodsuckers “Across Lebanon, at least 66 informal settlements are expelled of their political, social have been found heavily impacted by the flooding, and economic lives. That can happen 15 of which have completely flooded or collapsed.” if Iraqis operate a complete and final “UNHCR and partners estimate that approxi- separation between religion and mately 850 informal settlements, hosting 50,000 the state or when a free and sover- refugees, are at risk of flooding,” she added. eign Iraq joins the ranks of secular, The displaced population within Syria is also democratic nations that guarantee suffering from the bad weather conditions. Refugee equal rights and duties for all of their camps in Idlib province were flooded. For all displaced people in the region, the citizens without distinction of race, humanitarian situation is untenable. About half of ethnicity, religion or sect. Syria’s population has been displaced and 5 million Our people need to wash their live in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and elsewhere. minds and hearts of the myths and More than 70% of Syrian refugees in Lebanon and fantasies planted by their political 95% of those in Jordan live below the poverty level. and religious leaders. They need to Conditions remain dire in the overcrowded force their rulers to be at the service camps of the Greek islands where about 15,000 of the citizens and not the other way migrants are stranded with no option to move to around. Is this asking too much for the mainland. About 5,000 refugees are jammed into Moria camp, Greece’s largest, on the island of our people? Lesbos. Conditions in Moria have been condemned as inhumane. Freedom myth. President of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq Humam Ibrahim Zobeidi is an Iraqi writer and Hamoudi in Baghdad. (AP) US publisher of The Arab Weekly. January 13, 2019 7 Opinion

Sudan is no longer the ‘bread basket’ of the Arab world Published by Al Arab Mohamad Kawas Publishing House While Sudanese authorities have always been able to easily counter armed insurgency, they find it difficult today to deal with a leaderless popular movement. Publisher and Group Executive Editor

’ve been to Sudan several the anniversary of the Sudanese the “Arab spring,” there were pull rabbits out of his hat. It Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD times. During one of my rebellion. This time, however, demonstrations motivated by is time for a regime change Editor-in-Chief visits, I met with President he risks having the crowds sur- purely local demands but when in Sudan. Al-Bashir’s faithful Omar al-Bashir. At that round his own palace. While some demonstrators imagined allies are leaving him one by Oussama Romdhani time, the man had ended Sudanese authorities have al- that they could go beyond that one. Even his close advisers his partnership with former ways been able to easily counter and started shouting the well- have been neutralised or have Managing Editor IPresident Hassan al-Turabi armed insurgency, they find it known slogan “the people want neutralised themselves. Iman Zayat and was trying to get rid of his difficult today to deal with a to topple the regime,” other When I visited Sudan long Islamist image. Al-Bashir also leaderless popular movement. demonstrators silenced them. ago, I was a witness to a de- Deputy Managing Editor wanted to get rid of the legacy It seems the Sudanese No one in Sudan wanted to top- velopment fever sweeping the and Online Editor of his hostility towards the president would rather have ple the regime. country like never before. I Mamoon Alabbasi United States and seemed open the familiar opposition forces in This time the situation is heard and saw more than once to the outside world. Sudan, including those belong- different. That “Arab spring” that Sudan was the food basket Senior Editor In one corner of the exterior ing to the Mirghani and Mahdi slogan was openly echoed and of the Arab world and that it John Hendel zone of the presidential palace political families, regain centre people want the president to was looking forward to being in Khartoum, some colleagues stage in the Sudanese political go. Al-Bashir responded by Africa’s portal to the world. Chief Copy Editor and I were contemplating a scene because it would be easier brandishing a readily available The Chinese were building Richard Pretorius memorial to the death of British for him to deal with them either Arab weapon. high-rise buildings in Khartoum General Charles George Gordon, by co-opting, repressing or The Sudanese president has and irrigation dams on the Nile. Copy Editor who was killed at that very spot deporting them. exposed his opponents. It’s, of The people in power talked Stephen Quillen by Sudanese rebels who had Since his 1989 coup, al-Bashir course, Israel that has never about a mountain of shining surrounded the capital, stormed has ruled the country with no stopped to conspire against his uranium in Darfur and about East/West Section Editor the palace of the British gover- rival in sight. He has expanded rule. It’s Israel that is pulling the gold and diamond mines wait- Mark Habeeb nor and killed him. Al-Bashir his sphere of influence by wip- strings of the Sudanese people, ing to be plucked. Visitors were saw us and, with a smirk on his ing out major traditional parties just like it has pulled the strings shown reduced models for an Gulf Section Editor face, signalled to our Sudanese that have long occupied the of the south, in Darfur, and of international new metropolis Mohammed Alkhereiji friends to tell us that story. Sudanese political space. many other places before that. at the junction of the Blue Nile Society and Travel Gordon was assassinated on He started out with an ex- It’s the same Israel that was and the White Nile, similar to Sections Editor January 26, 1885, while serv- tremist form of Islamism that doing in Sudan exactly what modern Dubai. ing as the British governor- gave protection to the infamous Syrian President Bashar Assad Many years later, we find the Samar Kadi general to Sudan. He was killed Carlos the Jackal and Osama bin and Libya leader Muammar Sudanese taking to the street Contributing Editor after a siege of Khartoum that Laden. He surrounded himself Qaddafi told us it was doing in demanding bread and the Su- Rashmee Roshan Lall lasted 317 days. He had arrived with the stars of anti-US ideolo- their countries. danese rulers promising them in Khartoum less than a year gies, causing the United States Al-Bashir talked about agents to reduce bread prices. This is Contributing Analyst before that to organise the and Israel to take a couple of who infiltrated the demonstra- happening in the 21st century. Ed Blanche departure of British forces and swats at the heart of Sudan. tors, a mysterious band of space There is no more talk of the civilians. The event shocked He has shown toughness creatures that can cross conti- “Arab bread basket” and of Af- Senior Correspondents nents, infiltrate demonstrators London. The man was a legend and rigidity in dealing with his rica’s main gateway, of mineral Mahmud el-Shafey (London) there, known for his victories enemies in the south and Darfur and hijack their demands. In his and hydraulic riches and the against all odds and yet he met but then operated a pragmatic fantasy tale, if these creatures genius of geography. People Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) his end at the hands of a band of 180-degree turn and kicked out had chosen to land specifically just want bread, 138 years down Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) ill-equipped and inexperienced bin Laden and handed Carlos in Sudan, it was because they the road from General Gordon’s Thomas Frank (Washington) rebels. over without batting an eye. were after “sabotaging” the death. We are in January 2019 now Today, the Sudanese street whole of the Islamic umma. Regular Columnists and, like all Sudanese, al-Bashir is revolting against al-Bashir Al-Bashir’s rule of Sudan has Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese Claude Salhani takes great pride in celebrating himself. During the season of aged. The man can no longer writer. Yavuz Baydar Correspondents Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) VR goggles can’t reveal Trump’s Syria strategy Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Rashmee Roshan Lall Chief Designer Stay or go, the United States’ Syria script must address the larger Marwen el-Hmedi dramatic plot: how indispensable a nation is it prepared to be? Designers hen US Presi- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo able questions: Is the reflexive chaos over Syria does. Engage- Ibrahim Ben Bechir dent Donald walked that exit strategy back. judgment of the foreign policy ment and disengagement cannot Hanen Jebali Trump’s Still, Washington’s so-called establishment valid any more run on parallel tracks alongside national se- starched-collar foreign policy set for a war-weary America? each other. curity adviser is apoplectic. There is bipartisan Should the United States con- There are some, not least John Bolton consensus across the political tinue to maintain a troop pres- Harvard public policy analyst Contact editor at: Wwas pictured with US Ambas- divide — Democrats, as well as ence all over the world merely Jeffrey Sachs, who argue for a sador to Israel David Friedman Trump’s Republican Party — that to prevent adversaries from clean American exit, not just [email protected] wearing virtual reality goggles withdrawal from Syria would filling a vacuum? And if Trump’s from Syria but the whole blind during a January 6 visit to the undermine the United States in America has lost its taste for man’s buff game of “US regional Western Wall tunnel complex in the Middle East. That a receding principled — and reliable — over- hegemony.” eastern Jerusalem, social media footprint in the region would seas engagement, will it adjust In a scathing commentary lit up. “I think they’re looking marginalise the United States, its ambition accordingly? published by the Project Syndi- Al Arab Publishing House for America’s Syria strategy,” which former US Secretary of On January 4, the Trump cate on “America’s real purposes Quadrant Building came a clever tweet from Emma State Madeleine Albright called administration dispatched 80 in the Middle East,” Sachs called 177-179 Hammersmith Road Ashford of the Cato Institute, the “indispensable” nation. troops to Gabon to defend US out “the truth about the US pres- London W6 8BS the libertarian think-tank in Some of the caterwauling is interests and “further foreign ence in Syria.” Washington never Washington. overdone. What’s clear is that policy” in the nearby Democrat- had “scruples about democracy The internet smirked. It was a Trump has his own Syria policy ic Republic of the Congo, where in Syria or elsewhere in the re- delicious thought that Trump’s and it can be spelt out in two the Roman Catholic church had gion,” he said. Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 senior lieutenants were scouring words of one syllable: get out. warned of an uprising as a result Sachs, whose latest book is Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 far and wide, even a computer- What’s also abundantly clear of the contentious December 30 titled “A New Foreign Policy: generated third dimension, for a is Trump’s reluctance to stay election. Beyond American Exceptional- Syria policy. engaged overseas, without tan- On the face of it, the Gabon ism,” said the United States only Ashford was engaging in gal- gible gain, as he sees it. manoeuvre doesn’t sound like ever wanted to “install a Syrian US Publisher: lows humour. It was brought on This raises several uncomfort- an America in retreat but the regime friendly to Turkey and The Arab Weekly USA LLC. not just by the absurd photo- Saudi Arabia, deny Russia an ally graph of Trump aides in silly and push Iranian forces out of [email protected] headsets, taking in a virtual Syria.” [email protected] reconstruction of a Jewish tem- The real, unexamined, conse- ple at a site the international quences of US actions in Syria Tel: 248-679-6624 community does not recognise have been disastrous, Sachs as sovereign Israeli territory. The declared. Trump’s withdrawal American foreign policy estab- could be a “prelude to an ex- lishment as a whole is appalled panded regional war (or) a criti- at the shifting state of Trump’s cal step on the path to an elusive Syria strategy. peace in region.” Many are asking what, if any, Perhaps. Subscription & Advertising: is the US policy on Syria now. On Stay or go, the United States’ [email protected] December 19, Trump announced Syria script must address the Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 the speedy and complete with- larger dramatic plot: how indis- drawal from Syria of America’s pensable a nation is it prepared approximately 2,000 troops. The to be? It cannot do a Gabon when Mohamed Al Mufti Americans, Trump said, would it pleases and Syria on a whim. Marketing & Advertising leave Syria, a place of “sand and Manager death,” to its own fate and Iran Rashmee Roshan Lall is a could do as it pleased. columnist for The Arab Weekly. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 Dead serious. US national security adviser John Bolton (2nd R) The withdrawal was to be Her blog can be found at www.alarab.co.uk completed by January 18 but, wears virtual reality goggles during a visit to the Western Wall www.rashmee.com and she is within days, Bolton and US tunnel complex in Jerusalem’s Old City, January 6. (Reuters) on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 January 13, 2019 News & Analysis Egypt Egyptian president confirms security coordination with Israel in CBS interview

Amr Emam first Egyptian head of state to talk openly about this coordination.” The Egyptian presidency re- Cairo quested that “60 Minutes” not air the interview, which the pro- gyptian President Abdel gramme used to promote its cover- Fattah al-Sisi took a calcu- age, but it was unclear whether that lated risk by officially con- was because of Sisi’s comments on E firming close coordination Cairo’s relationship with Tel Aviv. with Israel in the fight against ter- Egypt was the first Arab state to rorism in the Sinai Peninsula, ana- sign a peace treaty with Israel fol- lysts said. lowing a series of wars with the In an interview with CBS News country, most recently the 1973 television’s “60 Minutes,” Sisi Yom Kippur War. Despite then- made the unprecedented acknowl- President Anwar Sadat signing a edgement after being asked wheth- peace deal in 1979 and earlier visit- er Egypt was enjoying the “deep- ing Israel’s Knesset to give a speech est and closest cooperation” ever making the case for mutual recog- with Israel. “That is correct,” Sisi nition and peace, a significant ma- affirmed. jority of Egyptians view Israel with wariness, particularly over the is- sue of the Palestinians. In tactical and strategic Sadat was assassinated in Oc- terms, close coordination tober 1981 by Islamist terrorists between Egypt and Israel who condemned his recognition has become a national of Israel. Egyptian President Hosni security necessity for Mubarak was known to have en- both sides. joyed cordial relations with Israel, including meeting with senior Is- “Egyptian fighter jets fighting raeli officials on numerous occa- [the Islamic State] ISIS sometimes sions. have to cross to the Israeli side of While relations appeared to cool the border,” Sisi said in the inter- under Islamist President Muham- Different audiences. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi sits during an interview in Cairo. (Reuters) view, which was conducted a few mad Morsi, Sisi followed Mubarak’s months ago and broadcast January example and has officially met with 6. “This makes it important for us Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin “Egypt also needed to move a has always been ready to lend a neighbouring Gaza Strip, is an off- to coordinate with the Israeli side.” Netanyahu at least twice. lot of heavy equipment into Sinai, hand and provide assistance to any shoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The New York Times and other In tactical and strategic terms, including tanks, personnel carri- country in the war against terror- Islamist opponents of Sisi have US media have published detailed close coordination between Egypt ers and fighter jets, which were ism, in this case and in the future sought to use his confirmation of accounts of Egyptian-Israeli secu- and Israel has become a national banned by the treaty,” said retired as well,” the statement said. close ties with Israel as a rallying rity cooperation in the Sinai, based security necessity for both sides, army General Gamal Eddine Ma- There are fears in Cairo that point against his government. on Israeli sources. This marks, analysts said. The presence of ISIS zloum. “This was why coordina- openly talking about security coor- “Sisi has shown himself to be however, the first time such coop- militants in the Sinai Peninsula is tion with Tel Aviv was indispensa- dination between Egypt and Israel an honest Zionist agent,” tweeted eration was confirmed at the high- as much a threat to Israel’s security ble.” could provide Islamic extremists Egyptian dissident Waleed Shara- est level in Egypt. as it is to Egypt. In January 2017, Sisi revealed with propaganda material. Dur- by, secretary-general of the Egyp- The problem, political analysts The security appendix of the that 41 battalions — approximately ing the Mubarak era, Islamists tian Revolutionary Council, follow- in Cairo said, was that, despite offi- peace treaty between the two 25,000 personnel — were fighting routinely used complaints about ing the airing of the interview. The cial recognition of Israel almost 30 countries limits the number of ISIS in Sinai. alleged Israeli acts of aggression Egyptian Revolutionary Council is years ago, most Egyptians viewed troops Egypt can deploy to the One month later, an Israeli De- against the Palestinians as well as reported to have close ties with the their Jewish neighbours with deep Sinai Peninsula and the type of fence Ministry statement seemed Mubarak’s ties with Israel as a ral- Muslim Brotherhood. distrust, if not enmity. equipment they can use there. To to tacitly confirm cooperation be- lying cry. “The Islamists could eventu- “This is why it is dangerous for fight ISIS, Egypt transferred thou- tween the two countries following The Muslim Brotherhood raised ally use such revelations to recruit the president to reveal the extent sands of troops from areas west of an ISIS attack on al-Rawda mosque funds for years under the pretext more Israel-haters against the of coordination Egypt has with the Suez Canal into Sinai, which in Sina in which more than 300 of helping the Palestinian resist- Egyptian Army,” Nafaa cautioned. this country,” said Hassan Nafaa, a needed approval from Tel Aviv worshippers were killed. ance and sending aid to distressed political science professor at Cairo because it could have been consid- “[The] relationship between Is- Palestinians in the Palestinian ter- Amr Emam is a Cairo-based University. “Sisi is probably the ered a violation of the 1979 treaty. rael and Egypt is ongoing. Israel ritories. Hamas, which controls the contributor to The Arab Weekly. Egypt’s Christians start new year with hopes and fears

Hassan Abdel Zaher the construction of the cathedral without permits. under Sisi to dozens of church fires Christians also expressed fears set by Muslim Brotherhood sup- that the lack of real reform of the Cairo porters in 2013. educational curriculum, especially “On this day, we see you have ful- involving Egypt’s oldest university espite fears, Egypt’s Chris- filled this promise and here we are al-Azhar, could nurture the next tian minority, who make witnessing a great opening on this generation of extremists. up almost 10% of the coun- grand occasion,” Tawadros said. Sisi is battling al-Azhar — the D try’s population, has high Christians are not getting mere highest Sunni authority in Egypt — hopes that 2019 will be free from lip service from Sisi, who has made over reforming religious discourse the problems of recent years. protecting Egypt’s Copts one of the in the country, with the president Coptic Christians celebrated hallmarks of his presidency. Under favouring a more modernised ap- Christmas on January 7 despite the Sisi, Egypt’s parliament has author- proach. threat of terrorism and as Egypt’s ised and legitimised the construc- security services appear to be gain- tion of hundreds of previously un- ing an upper hand over extremists. licensed churches. Two days before the Coptic Two days before the Coptic In December, Sisi also formed a Christmas, an Egyptian Christmas, an Egyptian bomb group to work to prevent sectarian bomb disposal expert was disposal expert was killed as he violence and apply the law to at- killed as he tried to defuse tried to defuse three bombs near a tacks against the Christians. three bombs near a church church in eastern Cairo. The bombs These are all developments, the in eastern Cairo. apparently were planned to go off Christians say, that give them hope while dozens of Christians gathered and a feeling of empowerment. to prepare for Christmas Eve mass. “The current administration Ahead of Christmas, there were “Attacks in the past made the does its best to make the Christians nationwide debates about wheth- Christians feel especially targeted,” feel equal to their Muslim compa- er Muslims should congratulate said Christian activist Naguib Ga- High hopes. Christian worshippers attend Orthodox Christmas mass triots,” said Father Polis Halim, Christians on Christmas. The de- (AFP) briel. “The spectre of terrorism is and the inauguration of the Cathedral of the Nativity, January 6. spokesman of the Coptic Orthodox bates were led by ultra-orthodox still there and state institutions Church. “The rights given Chris- Salafists who advised followers not need to work hard to bring it to a cated in anti-Christian rhetoric and hundreds of dignitaries attending tians in the past four years are un- to congratulate Christians regard- total end.” attacks against churches. Christmas Eve mass January 6 at precedented in the history of our ing their holiday. Such scenes had Egypt’s Christian community has Sisi’s administration is fighting the cathedral. country.” been common during the season. been targeted by Islamist extrem- back. On Christmas Eve, Sisi inau- “This is an important moment in Copts, however, have outstand- “Religious reform is essential for ists, particularly because of their gurated the Middle East’s largest our history,” Sisi said at the event, ing issues they want addressed. boosting citizenship rights,” Halim strong support for Egyptian Presi- cathedral in Cairo’s new adminis- which was televised nationwide. This includes, Halim said, that the said. “The education curriculum dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. trative capital in what many have “We are one and we will remain legalisation of the churches will must renounce violence and back Islamic State-affiliated militants said represents an important ges- one,” he added, referring to Chris- move ahead at a faster pace. the rights of minorities, not the op- targeted Christians in the Sinai Pen- ture of support and solidarity. tian and Muslim unity. The panel formed as part of 2016 posite.” insula, leading them to leave the Covering 63,000 sq.metres, Coptic Pope Tawadros II high- legislation for the legalisation of area en masse in early 2017. Groups construction of the Cathedral of lighted the change in stance be- churches has received requests for Hassan Abdel Zaher is a with ties to the outlawed Muslim the Nativity was ordered by Sisi tween current and previous Egyp- the licensing of more than 3,000 Cairo-based contributor to Brotherhood have also been impli- in January 2017. Sisi was among tian administrations. He contrasted churches that were constructed The Arab Weekly. January 13, 2019 9 News & Analysis War and Peace Interview Jean-Paul Chami: ‘The region needs more peace fundamentalists’

Yet, people involved in conflicts, focus is not to bring the fights and whether as bystanders or victims, fires into our own houses. It is the will always say their conflict is more most difficult job [possible]. Khadija complicated. “The Lebanese, Iraqi and Pales- Hamouchi “However, the experience of tinian examples show us that when war everywhere around the world we are impacted by a conflict for a ean-Paul Chami belongs to brings both the victim and the long time, chances are part of that a generation fundamental- perpetrators to animalistic levels, conflict will be brought into the ly shaped by the Lebanese which strips us of our core human inner house and create dangerous civil war. As a 12-year-old, traits and character. Once we have inner fault lines. he said he knew he bore crossed the line from conflict to “Although conflict resolution as a no responsibility for the violent conflict it is a different ball science is still in construction, my war but that it affected him game, disregarding justice, freedom intervention is creating awareness Janyway. A big part of his adulthood and the right to live. about the fault lines by providing was spent on understanding the “What makes conflict different in literacy skills to people to under- nature of conflict. our region is how local, national, re- stand what they have been going Chami founded Peace Labs, an gional or international a conflict has through. Difficult task. Jean Paul Chami (C-L) speaks at a peace advocacy NGO dedicated to peace, in 2011. He grown, how the conflict has been “It is important to remind training session in Lebanon. (Peace Labs) has facilitated and delivered more inspired, what is at stake and who people in our region that we are than 50 training workshops and are the key stakeholders. Regardless all conflict experts but that there lectures on peace and conflict skills of all these factors, violence always is no one solution expert as such. ists to a certain extent, with their inspire the elephant to move in a in Lebanon, the wider Arab world erupts. Every community has developed peace belief, sharing non-violent different direction. and Africa. “In Lebanon, for example, we its understanding of conflict and alternatives, instigating people to “The world today is in a process A fervent advocate for a bottom- could say that there are sectarian it is important to start listening. be more helpful. We lack that type of change. We are in a New World up approach to peace, Chami has aspects that are not necessarily During the workshops, I customise of leadership in our region. Disorder. Our wars have moved to worked alongside local communi- present elsewhere, particularly the my language, not using too much “Recently, I have been asked information-related and technol- ties in Libya, Lebanon and Iraq that subtle layers of sub-confessional academic jargon [but] using street ‘Who is the Gandhi of the Middle ogy-enabled conflicts and even in were either involved in or affected fault lines in which we see people common language.” East?’ I did not have a clear answer. our region, [wars waged] through by conflict. He has worked on from the same religion attacking TAW: How effective can peace- There are many men and women at media and drones.” behaviour change and conflict lit- each other. So it is not necessary building be when some local lead- the local level, yet not on national TAW: Can we naively hope for eracy, helping people intellectualise one religious bloc against another. ers, political or religious, have a level and that is very much needed a peaceful Middle East and North the existence of conflict to distance “The level of concentration and grip on people, who may, in fact, be to counter every other force that Africa region? emotions even as the importance of intersections makes the whole economically dependent on them, exists.” JPC: “Of course we can. It is not emotional responses was recog- region a bit peculiar. Lebanon is in too? TAW: How effective can peace- only about hope. When you really nised. a tough neighbourhood. [There are JPC: “One must think about the building be when local conflicts wish and work for something, it In 2008, Chami became local the] occupied [Palestinian territo- critical yeast, the small number of are used strategically to shore up will eventually happen. Peace can level peace coordinator at the ries], Syria, Iran, Turkey or Saudi people. Convincing a huge mass is global conflicts and interests, all of and will happen. How do I know UN Development Programme for Arabia. playing a dangerous power game. which are obviously much beyond this? Simply because of the ‘Arab Lebanon and Iraq Peace Programme “Our conflicts have been very “Winning hearts and minds of the control of local communities? spring.’ manager at the Forum for Develop- dehumanising and [led to a] higher the local population requires new JPC: “As peace-builders we are “Many mock it because it did not ment, Culture and Dialogue. level of insecurities; deteriorating discourse leadership in our region. expected to answer questions [in yield what was expected back then. In 2014, Chami undertook trust, sanity among citizens of the We need more peace fundamental- line] with a security-based linear Change takes time and cannot take assignments for Interpeace, an same country. We cannot always mentality but conflicts do not un- place without an initial spark and international NGO for peace build- rely on the us-versus-them rheto- fold in a linear way, nor do solu- level of consciousness, which hap- ing, to manage the Roads to Peace ric because your neighbour next tions. It is hard to engage in a list of pened during the ‘Arab spring’ and programme in Libya that focused door is also the enemy. That enemy “Conflicts are short-term simple solutions. its ripple effects in the region. on young people. could be your brother and, in our “What is currently invested in “That level of consciousness has The Arab Weekly (TAW) met with culture, brothers killing each other pretty similar, peace building is insignificant already been surpassed and there is Chami (JPC) in Beirut and asked is just a picture of the primitive [compared to] the investment made no turning back. As people, we have why and how he planned to make dawn of the Adam-and-Eve era of yet they do in wars. This is not an understate- understood our ruling regimes, people “speak the language of the world.” ment. The capital, the human forces global politics and social affairs. peace.” TAW: How do you empower peo- manifest and technology working for war in “We are definitely moving in the TAW: How peculiar is the nature ple to end conflict when they feel our region [represent] an elephant right direction, impatient though of conflict in our part of the world? doomed, powerless and the victim themselves against an ant. we may be.” JPC: “Conflicts are pretty similar, of wars over which they have no “It is about shifting the resources yet they do manifest themselves dif- influence? differently.” of our region to empower the ant Khadija Hamouchi is a ferently. It is like cooking the same JPC: “It depends. It is a common creatively with an understanding of Belgian-Moroccan social dish but with varying ingredients. thread for people to feel disempow- the body and needs of the elephant. entrepreneur and founder of You end up with the same dish ered and doomed. The word that Founder of Peace Labs The Middle East and North Africa SEJAAL, an initiative that is but with a slightly different taste. comes to mind is ‘resilience.’ The Jean-Paul Chami needs a critical yeast of ants, to building an app for young people. Families of Syria’s war missing heed Lebanon, Bosnia lessons

Samar Kadi been missing since the Syrian detainees, which should be a “We got acquainted with the to have disappeared in Syria. civil war that began as a series of priority in peace talks. It is a hu- work of the Committee of the Amnesty International said the peaceful protests in 2011. manitarian issue above all and Families of the Kidnapped and Syrian number is no fewer than Beirut The UN Office of the High Com- leaving it unresolved would fuel Disappeared in Lebanon and had 75,000 people. missioner for Human Rights violence and revenge acts as eve- a look at the work of the Bos- While local committees have n a September day in reported in 2012 that enforced ryone would take justice in his nians who succeeded to uncov- been documenting information 2012, Tarek Abu Mesto, disappearance was used by the own hands,” Abu Mesto said. er the fate and whereabouts of about the missing in Syria, Fami- a farmer in the town of Syrian regime to eliminate op- The group staged a sit-in out- their missing loved ones through lies for Freedom is engaged in O Zabadani outside Da- position groups and to instil fear. side international peace talks in opening mass graves and DNA drawing international attention mascus, headed to work not Armed opposition groups, in- Geneva in May 2017. The women, identification,” Abu Mesto said. to the plight of the disappeared. knowing that he would never see cluding the Free Syrian Army and accompanied by supporters, held “It was a very painful experi- Using a red double-decker Lon- his wife and five children again. al-Nusra Front, were also found candles and framed photographs ence but we learnt a lot from it,” don bus dubbed “Freedom Bus,” During the seven years since, his to be responsible for abductions of their missing and detained she said. “In Beirut, we learnt plastered with dozens of photo- wife, Ghada, has heard nothing and the killing and torturing of loved ones. that it takes determination and graphs of missing relatives, the about him. She doesn’t know his government allies. They submitted demands to the lots of patience to achieve any group toured London, Paris and whereabouts or whether he is negotiators, including the release progress and in Bosnia, we saw Berlin, rallying public and diplo- alive. of those arbitrarily arrested, clari- how much women can make an matic support for its cause “He was picking apples along Abu Mesto’s husband is fying the fate of the disappeared, impact and how much efforts it “We are seeking to raise aware- with other workers when soldiers among thousands of medical care for prisoners and takes to reach your goal… They ness and engage the concerned stormed the town and took away detainees and forcibly visitation rights by the families were determined and did not set- parties. We have no problem talk- many men,” said Ghada Abu Mes- disappeared people who and international humanitarian tle for less than the truth.” ing to anyone — the opposition, to, who had fled with her children have been missing since organisations. It took decades for Lebanon to the regime, Russia, Iran, Saudi to Lebanon. the Syrian civil war. “We also asked for fair trials for pass a law empowering an inde- Arabia, Qatar, et cetera. This is- “In 2014, I had information that the detainees and, if they have pendent national commission to sue should be brought to the at- he might be detained in Saydnaya Abu Mesto said she is deter- died, to know how and where inquire about the missing. The tention of all parties who are in prison. I tried hard to ask about mined to know what happened to they are buried,” Abu Mesto said. bill endorsed last November stip- one way or another involved in him but I was told he was not her husband. She has joined Fam- Some opposition groups have ulates collection of DNA samples the conflict,” Abu Mesto said. there. Afterward, they told me he ilies for Freedom, a women-led accepted the demands but there and exhuming mass graves from “As a movement, we speak in had died from kidney failure but pressure movement established has been no response from the the 1975-90 civil war for identifi- the name of all the families with- they did not hand me his body. in 2017 to clarify the fate of the regime or its allies, she added. cation. out distinction. We are the voice For me he is missing, not dead,” disappeared. In a bid to get more organised, Some estimates say there are of every missing person in Syria,” Abu Mesto said. “We are a group of women Families for Freedom sought 17,000 missing people in Leba- she added. Abu Mesto’s husband is among committed to raising aware- guidance from movements with non but a more plausible figure thousands of detainees and forci- ness about the issue of the miss- similar experiences in Lebanon is approximately 8,000, far below Samar Kadi is the Arab Weekly bly disappeared people who have ing, forcibly disappeared and and Bosnia. the tens of thousands believed society and travel section editor. 10 January 13, 2019 News & Analysis Maghreb Party politics challenge Tunisia’s secularists

Lamine Ghanmi leading figures abandoning the party, which cost it its parliamen- Tunis tary majority. Nidaa Tounes now has 44 deputies in the 217-member unisian Prime Minister parliament. The Islamist Ennahda Youssef Chahed’s support- Movement has 69 seats. ers are preparing to launch The troubles of Nidaa Tounes T a new political party, a have added to citizens’ frustra- move that risks dividing the coun- tions with the country’s political try’s secularist camp just months elite. Distrust of politicians has ahead of elections. complicated the government’s ef- The potential confrontation is forts to manage the country’s fraught with uncertainties, ana- acute social and economic crisis. It lysts said. Many secularists fear has also undone much of Beji Caid the split could allow Islamists to Essebsi’s success in forging a broad regain control of the government anti-Islamist coalition. in presidential and parliamentary Hafedh Caid Essebsi, at a re- elections in November and De- cent meeting of party officials, cember. slammed former party members Problems in Tunisia’s secular- who have pursued a different po- ist camp have been compounded litical path. “Those who left Nidaa by internal Nidaa Tounes disputes Tounes achieved nothing. They that pit Chahed against party Ex- have done no good for the coun- ecutive Director Hafedh Caid Es- try,” he said. sebsi, who is the son of Tunisian Nidaa Tounes is planning a con- President Beji Caid Essebsi. Divi- vention aimed at reunifying the sions in the secularist camp could party for March 2, shortly after make it no match for the electoral Chahed’s supporters are to launch machine of the Islamists, who can their new party. rely on a well-disciplined voter Boujemaa Rmili, a close political base. ally of the president, warned that “if Nidaa were to fail to succeed in having its congress on March There are still bridges and Critical juncture. Tunisia’s Prime Minister Youssef Chahed (R) and Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi 2, there is nothing to be expected arrive for a meeting in the Carthage Palace on the outskirts of Tunis. (AFP) common ground between from its participation in the par- the two camps, the most liamentary and presidential elec- important being the Islamist tions.” made the most visits to Tunisia’s movement. “It seeks to prepare a that break is neither full nor final. challenge they will face in “President Beji [Caid Essebsi], regions to witness the support of solid ground to launch a centrist There are still bridges and com- next elections. who will attend the opening of the local officials and members of the party as a democratic constitution- mon ground between the two convention, looks at the event as a civic society who back the new po- al popular force that will be ready camps, the most important being Chahed and Hafedh Caid Essebsi decisive moment for the salvation litical project of Youssef Chahed,” for the next political deadlines.” the Islamist challenge they will last year engaged in a public war of of the party and the country,” he Chettaoui added. “Tunisians are fully behind face in next elections. words, each accusing the other of added. Leading figures of Chahed’s Chahed as president of the govern- “Both Chahed and President Beji political ineptitude and failing the Chahed’s supporters are ada- movement said the party’s’ first ment because they feel his sinceri- [Caid Essebsi] need their time and party. mant that Tunisian politics is en- convention would be January 27 ty despite the criticism fallen upon energy to fight their true rivals,” Hafedh Caid Essebsi recently tering a new era. in Monastir, the hometown of late him from all sides since he decided said Nizar Bahloul, editor of Busi- dismissed Chahed’s efforts to cre- “Nidaa Tounes is over,” said for- President Habib Bourguiba. to launch his campaign against ness News magazine. “It is stupid ate a new political project, saying: mer party member Leila Chettaoui “The new political project aims corruption,” he added. — very stupid — for them to waste “There is no alternative to Nidaa in comments directed at Hafedh at avoiding the mistakes of Nidaa Many Tunisians, however, fear their energy outside the fight Tounes. Tunisia has two choices: Caid Essebsi. “You destroyed the Tounes,” said Selim Azzabi, the that a break between Chahed and against their common rival.” Nidaa Tounes or Ennahda.” party and now you are ruining the former chief of staff of President Caid Essebsi camp would com- However, Nidaa Tounes has life of Tunisians.” Beji Caid Essebsi and who now co- pound the country’s instability. Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab been crippled by defections, with “I’m one of the deputies who ordinates activities for Chahed’s Experts in Tunis, however, said Weekly correspondent in Tunis. Viewpoint Tunisian secularists compete for Bourguiba’s mantle

n January 27, Tunisian cadres left and some of its elected years ago. Vote-hungry politicians, Prime Minister Youssef members of parliament resigned or anyone wishing to find a spot on Chahed is expected to from the party. Consequently, the political map in Tunisia, will Habib Lassoued announce his new po- Ennahda gained a parliamentary rush to adopt it. Nidaa Tounes did litical project from the majority. that seven years ago and, presum- Ocoastal city of Monastir in front of In 2016, Caid Essebsi and Nidaa ably, Chahed’s new party will not the tomb of the country’s historic Tounes decided to remove the fail to adopt it. leader — former President Habib head of the government at that Going back to the city of Monas- Bourguiba. In early March, that time, Habib Essid, and replace him tir, the courtyard of the Bourguiba same city is to host the general as- with Chahed. Chahed was hardly a mausoleum will be transformed sembly of Nidaa Tounes. public figure but Caid Essebsi was into a political arena where the In March 2012, Nidaa Tounes’s determined to appoint him prime fiercest and most ruthless political founder, Tunisian President Beji minister. battle will take place. It is going Caid Essebsi, announced the for- Observers noted that Caid Esseb- to be a battle between Caid Es- mation of his party from the same si was interfering too much in the sebsi’s party and Chahed’s party. spot. Caid Essebsi said then that executive branch, rather beyond Both claim to belong to the same his main objective was to establish his constitutional privileges, as if political legacy and share the same a political balance in the country he believed that the government vision, orientations and goals. after the sweeping victory of the palace in La Kasbah was going to However, the rivalry between Secularist legacy. A statue of Islamist Ennahda Movement in the be an annex of the presidential these two parties will only result Tunisia’s first President Habib elections of 2011. He declared his palace in Carthage. He was to in the fragmentation of the voting Bourguiba in central Tunis. adherence to the legacy of Bour- be proven wrong when Chahed mass that was crucial to the win of (Reuters) guiba, especially to the values of rebelled against his benefactor and the Bourguibian spirit in the 2014 a civil democracy, modernity and Ennahda was happy to lend him a elections. That fragmentation will women’s emancipation. hand. disavowed while secretly seeking surely serve the interests of the Sure enough, Nidaa Tounes Today, Chahed is preparing to to win over its supporters and Islamists in the elections of 2019. won overwhelming victory in the announce the birth of a new politi- its electoral machine. That was Caid Essebsi could easily bring presidential and parliamentary cal party. His close associates said exactly what had happened during order to the Bourguibian house. elections of 2014 and Caid Essebsi, the party was going to be modern- the 2014 elections. He could push towards having carried by the votes of 1 million ist, progressive and “Bourguib- Today, when this party or the Chahed, take the leadership of Tunisian women, got to fill Bour- ian” in soul. Meetings are being other declares that it is trying to Nidaa Tounes and force his son, guiba’s seat at the presidential scheduled in all 24 governorates in win over the Destourians, it is re- party leader Hafedh Caid Essebsi, palace in Carthage. Tunisia to lure the diehard Destou- ferring essentially to former mem- to step down, even temporarily. A couple of weeks after that rians, a reference to the followers bers of the RCD. The majority of Beji Caid Essebsi would be doing great victory, however, it was re- of Bourguiba’s former political the first generation of Bourguiba’s that not just for the sake of Nidaa Going back to the city vealed that a deal had been struck party. party leaders are either deceased Tounes but for the sake of Tunisia between Nidaa Tounes and En- The Destour party was founded or politically retired. The original and for the sake of safeguarding of Monastir, the nahda. Observers confirmed that by Bourguiba in March 1934. It led Destour party was not an ideologi- Bourguiba’s legacy. courtyard of the the terms of the agreement had the country’s battle for independ- cal party per se. It was driven by After all, Caid Essebsi consid- been settled during a meeting be- ence and, later, the battle for build- Bourguiba’s pragmatic vision. Ben ers himself the guardian of that Bourguiba tween Caid Essebsi and Ennahda ing an independent state. Ali’s regime also did not deviate legacy and therefore has a duty to mausoleum will be President Rached Ghannouchi in During the rule of President from that path. block those who stand to benefit transformed into a the summer of 2013 in Paris. Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Destour The strength of the Bourguib- from the political dispersion of With the beginning of 2015, became the Democratic Consti- ian approach lies in the fact that the larger family of modernists in political arena where Nidaa Tounes began to lose the tutional Rally (RCD) before being it has become synonymous with Tunisia for whom Bourguiba is a the fiercest and most support of many of its members, dissolved by a court decision in modernity and state secularism in spiritual father. especially among intellectuals, March 2011. The RCD was the contrast to the Islamist political ruthless political modernists, women and young party that everybody in the post- vision. It regained popularity after Habib Lassoued is a Tunisian battle will take place. people. Dozens of prominent revolution political class publicly the rise of the Islamist tide eight writer. January 13, 2019 11 News & Analysis Maghreb Suspicions of interference in Libya fuel hostility towards Turkey

Michel Cousins Even the rival Tripoli-based and UN-backed Presidential Council led by Fayez al-Sarraj, which maintains Tunis cordial relations with Ankara, felt obliged to demand an explanation he discovery of two at- as to what was happening. tempts, less than a month Algeria denounced the smug- apart, to smuggle Turk- gling, with a government official T ish-made guns into Libya saying the aim was to destabilise triggered hostile reactions over Libya. The UN Support Mission in suspicions of Ankara’s support to Libya described reports of the inci- extremists. dent as “extremely disconcerting.” Turkish sanctuary. Abdulhakim Belhaj, head of Libya’s al-Watan Party and owner of its pro-Islamist Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh It indicated that the United Nations’ TV station Al Nabaa, attends a news conference in Istanbul, last May. (AFP) Shoukry recently repeated what Panel of Experts would investigate. has become a regular Egyptian ac- Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut cusation that Qatar and Turkey are Cavusoglu travelled to Tripoli af- key and Qatar. of involvement with Tunisia’s An- spondence, voice recordings, video destabilising Libya and supporting ter the first discovery to soothe the The fact that Turkey has, with sar al-Sharia Salafist movement, an clips and payment details appar- extremists there. In particular, he Presidential Council’s ruffled feath- Qatar, become a sanctuary for nu- al-Qaeda offshoot, and the killing ently showing Belhaj to have been accused Turkey of smuggling arms ers. Such actions did “not represent merous Libyan Islamist or quasi- of two Tunisian leftist politicians closely involved in supplying arms to Libya. the policy or approach of the Turk- Islamist political figures also fuelled in 2013. He denied the accusations. to Hamas and its allies. Libyan customs officials in the ish state,” he declared. He and Sar- hostility. Prominent among them At the beginning of January, in a There are also said to be videos of port of Khoms, 120km east of Tripo- raj agreed to set up a joint investiga- is Abdulhakim Belhaj, the head of surprise move, the head of inves- Hamas instructors training Libyans li, on December 18 discovered 3,000 tion into the incident. Libya’s al-Watan Party and owner of tigations at the Libyan Attorney fighters and details of collaboration Turkish-made 9mm Beretta-style Other than Shoukry’s comments, its pro-Islamist TV station Al Nabaa, General’s office issued an arrest with commanders in the Benghazi handguns and 2.3 million rounds of the second discovery has resulted which operates out of Turkey. warrant for Belhaj, five other Liby- and Derna revolutionary shura ammunition in two containers that in no official statements from the Belhaj created the Libyan Islamic ans and 31 Chadian and Sudanese councils. The computer files are had been delivered on a cargo ship Libyans or the Turks. However, on Fighting Group in the 1990s, was fighters on charges relating to state said to contain evidence of other from Turkey. Officially, the contain- Libyan social media there has been an ally in Afghanistan of Osama security. Libyan political figures involved ers were supposed to have building a surge of anti-Turkish sentiment. bin Laden and the Taliban and, Originally it was thought that with Hamas Libya. materials and flooring. An incident on the day before the immediately after the 2011 Libyan Belhaj was being accused of in- Belhaj denied the allegations, de- On January 7, customs officials Misrata discovery added fuel to the revolution, became head of Tripoli volvement in attacks on Libyan scribing them as a conspiracy. He at Libya’s other deepwater port in flames. A security source said there Military Council until the following oilfields and terminals as well as on threatened legal action. Misrata, 100km further east, found was an attempt to kill the customs year. the Tamenhint Airbase near Sabha He is not popular though, even in more than 20,000 8mm Turkish officer charged with investigating He and his wife obtained an un- and other unnamed incidents in Tripoli, and his denials are unlikely handguns hidden in a container the Khoms smuggling. Although the precedented apology in the British southern Libya. to dampen distrust about him. delivered from Turkey. The con- source said authorities are keeping parliament last year from Prime However, it was subsequently Nor is distrust of Turkey likely to tainer contents had been registered an open mind about the incident, it Minister Theresa May for British disclosed that the accusation in subside. Its perceived alliance with as children’s toys and household is believed that someone does not intelligence’s involvement in their Belhaj’s case was of involvement transnational Islamist movements, goods. want the smuggling to be revealed. rendition by the CIA to Libya and with a Libyan cell of the Palestinian allegations of links to Libyan mili- The immediate response by Field- Even without the two incidents, subsequent imprisonment and movement Hamas. It is alleged he tants, the fact that so many use Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the head of hostility to Turkey is growing. The torture by the Qaddafi regime. helped supply weapons and other Turkey as a base and now the ac- Libyan National Army, to the first acting mayor of Derna, which for The UK government paid them equipment to Gaza and militants in cusations of gun smuggling, com- discovery was that the UN Security four years was run by the Islamic 500,000 British pounds — more Egypt’s Sinai. ing on top of the generally negative Council should condemn Turkey State and then by local Islamists than $600,000 — in compensation. The accusation and numerous perception of Libya’s history as a and set up a full investigation. sympathetic to al-Qaeda and is Despite the British apology, Bel- others are based on files discovered neo-Ottoman province, appear to That came as no surprise. Like still not fully cleared of the latter, haj has been persistently accused on the computer of the head of the be building public suspicion and Egypt, Haftar regards Turkey as an claimed that investigations fol- in Libya of having links with Is- Hamas cell, arrested early last year antagonism towards Turkey. adversary aiding and abetting Is- lowing the arrest of four militants lamist movements, such as Ansar and held at the prison at an air- lamist militants he has been fight- showed they had been provided al-Sharia, as well as to the Muslim base in Tripoli. The files allegedly Michel Cousins is a contributor to ing since 2013. with arms and equipment by Tur- Brotherhood. One accusation was contain details of meetings, corre- The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. Moroccan government bracing for public sector strikes

Saad Guerraoui Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit ter negotiations between education to meet with union leaders to avert unions and the Education Ministry he Moroccan government the strike. reached an impasse last year. is bracing for a tough start “The agreements reached in 2011 “The strike was a great success. to 2019 following main were made while the government’s The participation rate has been T trade unions’ call for a na- mandate was about to expire,” around 100% in all regions of the tionwide strike of local authorities Othmani told parliament. “We have kingdom,” said Sadek Rghioui, because of “catastrophic” working no complex since we put together secretary-general of the National conditions. the meetings to reach a solution.” Education Union, which is affiliated The Moroccan Workers’ Union, Othmani said that he met with with FDT. the Democratic Confederation of the finance minister on possible im- The national coordination of Labour, the Democratic Federation provements in the social conditions most teachers’ unions demanded of Labour (FDT) and the General of civil servants. the immediate promotion of their Union of Moroccan Workers called Laftit seems to be making progress staff classified in salary scale 9 be- on local government officials and following his meeting January 9 sides the integration of contracted employees to observe a 24-hour na- with representatives of the National teachers into the public service. tional strike January 17, a statement Labour Union of Morocco (UNTM), Abderrazzak Idrissi, secretary- by the unions said. which backs the ruling Islamist Jus- general of the National Federation The unions blame the Interior tice and Development Party. for Education, told Moroccan TV Ministry and the presidents of mu- “The meeting was characterised channel 2M that the strike was dic- nicipalities for the deteriorating by a positive and responsible at- Bumpy start. Moroccans chant slogans and hold up anti-government tated by the ministry’s neglect of situation and catastrophic working mosphere in which both sides dis- signs during a protest in Rabat, last November. (AFP) teachers’ demands. conditions. cussed ways to correct the path of Idrissi called for serious and real Several trade unions failed last social dialogue between the gov- dialogue to find a just and fair solu- November to reach an agreement ernment and the trade union and planned strike came after it repeat- ion also wants a revaluation of the tion to their problem. with the government on workers’ exchanged views to improve the edly asked the government to meet basic salary scale. Prior to the strike, Education Min- wage demands. They accused Mo- government’s proposal made dur- its claims. The union said in a state- “The working conditions in most ister Said Amzazi told parliament roccan Prime Minister Saad Eddine ing the last cycle of social dialogue,” ment that affiliated doctors would public hospitals are deteriorating that his department was aware of El Othmani’s government of being UNTM said in a statement. also strike, which would cause the day after day. The sheer proof is the the situation and would ensure the “insensitive” to civil servants’ con- “This meeting, although not a suspension of surgical operations king’s speech last year that called pace of the teachers’ promotion cerns. round of negotiations, was an op- in public hospitals, except in emer- on the government to focus on was accelerated. Othmani, who vowed to improve portunity for UNTM leaders to re- gencies. health and education,” said a doctor Teachers have been increasing Moroccans’ standard of living, is new their desire to reach a concert- The union insisted that the health who asked to remain anonymous. protest movements since the begin- facing one of his toughest times in ed social agreement that meets the sector suffers from the lack of a “Patients always blame us for ning of the school year to pressure office as he seeks invigorate stalled expectations and claims of Moroc- clear national strategy that meets underperforming but how can you the government to meet their de- dialogue with the trade unions. can workers.” the demands of citizens and solves work without equipment? It is like mands. Moroccan media reported that Public sector doctors are threat- the structural problems facing it. asking someone to drive a car with- Othmani had been dismissed from ening to strike for two weeks in Among its claims is the provision out its engine,” he said. Saad Guerraoui is a contributor leading dialogue with the unions April. The Independent Union of equipment and logistical means Public education employees went to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb but he insisted that he instructed of Public Sector Doctors said the to deal with urgent cases. The un- on a nationwide strike January 3 af- issues. 12 January 13, 2019 News & Analysis Iraq Challenges abound for Iraqi government

Manuel Langendorf

London

s 2018 closed, one of Iraq’s leading politicians, Ammar al-Hakim, had a positive A message for Iraqis. Hakim highlighted the country’s victories against terrorism and a statement by his office said how society had reject- ed sectarianism and racism and was restoring unity. The next phase, he reportedly add- ed during a meeting with one of Bah- rain’s most influential Shia clerics, would mean a “triumph” for services and development. To what extent the government can improve services and foster develop- ment will be key issues defining the new year for Iraq. “I think 2019 could be a very tur- bulent year if genuine progress is not made in addressing the issues that sparked the upheavals of the sum- mer of 2018,” said Fanar Haddad, a senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National Univer- sity of Singapore. Beyond security, Haddad said, Iraqis were eager to see improvements in their daily lives through “services, governance, eco- nomic conditions and social justice.” There was a wave of protests in the summer of 2018 in Iraq. As tem- Turbulence ahead. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi (C) attends a ceremony on the first anniversary of defeating ISIS in Baghdad, peratures soared, people took to the December 10. (Reuters) streets to express anger at corruption and a lack of services, including unre- government,” Seloom added. rity precarious and displacement still Seloom said big promises were Corruption is also connected to the liable electricity supplies and drink- More than a year after the govern- widespread,” said Haddad. made at the conference but he said he sectarian power-sharing system and ing water. The oil-rich province of ment announced the defeat of the In battles between ISIS and coali- doubted donors would deliver. struggle over ministries, which have Basra, a focal point of the grievances, Islamic State (ISIS), many parts of the tion of forces fighting it, several pre- “I don’t think these cities will be served as a base for patronage. Be- was the site of deadly protests. country once under the control of the dominantly Sunni cities in western reconstructed in 2019, not even in the ing able to decide over government The country entered the year amid militant group are in dire need of re- and northern Iraq were severely dam- next three years,” he said. contracts remains a powerful tool for a political crisis over allocation of cab- construction. Millions of people are aged. The destruction affects a com- Observers linked the issue of recon- the political class and well-connected inet posts. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel displaced and ISIS has been carrying munity that felt marginalised prior to struction and lack of funds to corrup- business people. Abdul-Mahdi obtained parliamentary out deadly attacks. the ISIS onslaught. tion in Iraq. The country was ranked “I am not very optimistic and I approval for most of his ministers but A Damage and Needs Assessment 169th out of 180 in Transparency don’t think many are about 2019,” published by the World Bank in Janu- International’s “Corruption Percep- said Seloom, stressing that he was key posts such as the defence, interior Being able to decide over and justice portfolios remain vacant. ary 2018 stated that Iraq’s reconstruc- tions Index 2017.” Protesters in Iraq optimistic for the longer term future The interior minister position will tion and recovery needs could total government contracts demanded a stronger stance against of the country, citing among other remain a point of contention between $88.2 billion, an estimate repeated by remains a powerful tool for corruption and nepotism from the things that people are airing their major political blocs. The Binaa bloc, Iraqi officials, with $22.9 billion need- the political class and government. grievances more openly and that a led by Hadi al-Amiri, has shown little ed in the short term. The housing well-connected business In a sign of how important the is- generational change was under way. appetite for abandoning its pick for sector was estimated to require $17.4 people. sue has become, almost all political “Iraq has the potential to rise.” the Interior Ministry, Falih Alfayyadh. billion to replace the 150,000 homes parties campaigned on a promise to “Not for nothing have some Iraqis “The status quo in 2019 will con- that were destroyed. In February, at a conference for the tackle corruption before the parlia- labelled this ‘the last-chance govern- tinue,” said Muhanad Seloom, an Iraq “The scale and urgency of [Iraq’s] reconstruction of Iraq, governments mentary elections in May. However, ment’,” Haddad concluded. expert at the University of Exeter, but challenges are immeasurably mag- and international organisations corruption is “deeply rooted in the the government will stabilise. “By nified in liberated areas where re- pledged $30 billion, less than half the system,” said Seloom, “it’s not easy to Manuel Langendorf is a writer March, Abdul-Mahdi will have a full construction has been slow, secu- amount estimated to be required. root out.” focusing on the MENA region. Viewpoint Iraq’s ministerial roulette grinds on as do fears of Iranian influence

he ministerial wheel of cosy ties. However, the potential istry jobs but Baghdad’s position ments, either in favour of keeping fortune continues to spin to disrupt the sectarian-based ap- on the flourishing of US bases is no the United States or Iran firmly put. as Iraq’s struggle to ap- portionment system fell through clearer. Reports placed the number of Nazli Tarzi point ministers to head in absence of public support of the During a trip January 9 to Bagh- newly formed secret US bases at its security and defence unconstitutional move to seat a dad, US Secretary of State Mike three, all in Anbar province. Tministries enters the penultimate Shia instead of a Sunni politician in Pompeo confirmed the United Nayef Al Shammari, vice- phase. the ministry. States’ unwavering support for chairman of parliament’s Security Nominations put forth by Iraqi Changing the way seats are div- Baghdad and was allegedly urged and Defence Committee, raised Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi vied up was criticised by the head to keep US troops stationed in the doubts over the transparency of to fill the seats of defence, interior of Binaa bloc and former head of country, the Wall Street Journal the United States’ security prac- and justice were leaked in an of- Iraq’s Integrity Commission Talal reported. tices and the absence of reliable ficial letter obtained by Iraqi al Zobai, who voiced distrust of Conflicting remarks may reveal data laying bare the true figure of newspaper Al Sumaria. moves that Abdul-Mahdi cloaked little more than a government US installations and personnel on Names included Iran-favoured in promises of “enacting reform.” forced to kowtow to the will of its Iraqi soil. for the interior Falih Alfayyadh, a The United States, like Tehran, allies that have helped prop up the He scolded Baghdad for its wil- former head of Iraq’s Popular Mobi- is carving out new tributaries of post-2003 Iraq state. ful blindness towards what many lisation Forces; former parliamen- power in western Iraq in the form During former Prime Minister view as the United States’ in the tary Speaker Salim al-Jabbouri for of military bases from Saladin to Haider al-Abadi’s tenure, Iraq post-ISIS phase. “Al Asad Airbase defence; and Kurdish Judge Rizgar Anbar to insulate itself against be- denied claims of unauthorised is the only base whose existence is Mohammed Amin for justice. ing ejected from the political game US troops and associated cases, known” to central and provincial The names are no less controver- board it designed 16 years ago. a tradition that Abadi’s successor authorities, he said. sial now than when they were first The US actions betray US Presi- adopted. During a news confer- Assurances from Abdul-Mahdi proposed. dent Donald Trump’s promise for ence in December, Abdul-Mahdi hit back against speculations that As many laud the new head of the United States to exit “dumb rejected allegations of secretly Iraqi officials were not informed state as an “independent,” others wars” in the region and depict a establishing US bases. of Trump’s 3-hour surprise visit. fear the outcome of prolonged dangerously imbalanced relation- However, the narrative of a The prime minister professed ministerial roulette and the latest ship between Iraq and its former “strong and stable” government knowledge of the visit and boasted nominees could tip the balance in occupier. has not convinced attentive world to have rejected Trump’s request to the interest of Iran. As the United States and Iran audiences that the United States is travel from Baghdad to greet him Another contentious proposal race to secure control of Iraq’s completely out. and the first lady. Conflicting remarks — which has since been dismissed resource wealth and strategic The men who take up seats of se- Trump’s December visit carries — envisaged a reshuffle in which importance, the unresolved min- curity and military institutions will echoes of George W. Bush’s meet- may reveal little more the Defence Ministry seat would isterial vacuum will gnaw at Iraq’s either grant Iran an uncontested ing with former Iraqi Prime Min- than a government no longer be assumed by a Sunni sovereignty and ability to rule ac- victory, which it has arguably ister Nuri al-Maliki in 2007 at the forced to kowtow to politician as a requirement of the cording to its people’s wishes. achieved in the realm of institu- same base following a request simi- muhasassa framework. Lack of parliamentary quorum, tionalised religion, politics and lar to that Abdul-Mahdi declined. the will of its allies As an institution in which mistrust, Iran’s recalcitrance to vet trade, or welcome a heightened that have helped prop Washington has long embedded actors it fears will not bend to its phase of the United States’ and Nazli Tarzi is an independent itself, the Defence Ministry could will and deepening rifts between Iran’s proxy war in Iraq. journalist whose writings and films up the post-2003 Iraq have devolved to Iran with which rival political blocs might explain Evidence of newly implanted US focus on Iraq’s ancient history and state. Iraq’s Shia political parties have the prolonged scramble over min- military bases reignited old argu- contemporary political scene. January 13, 2019 13 News & Analysis Syria Kurdish overtures to Damascus ‘reach their conclusion’

Sami Moubayed Afrin last February, west of the Euphrates River, deep within Rus- sia’s sphere of influence. The Rus- Beirut sians did not lift a finger to help the Kurds, neither did the Americans e disagree on the fu- nor the Syrians. ture of Syria but not Damascus was originally reluc- “ about Syria itself, tant to commit to any battle be- Wits borders and uni- tween the Turks and the Kurds. ty.” These were the words of Sipan Both had carved out fiefdoms in Hemo, commander of the People’s Syrian territory, making use of the Protection Units, who secretly vis- breakdown of the state since 2011. ited Damascus on December 26, Government authorities privately trying to cut a deal with Syrian of- joked that they welcomed a battle ficials that would avert — or defeat that would either rid them of Er- — an expected Turkish offensive in dogan or the Kurds. north-eastern Syria. Three days lat- Last year, they declined to help er, he landed in Moscow for similar the Kurds in the battle for Afrin, talks with Russian Defence Minister after Kurdish politicians rejected Sergei Shoygu. a proposal put forth by the Syrian Earlier in December, he appealed government. The Syrians had asked Few options, if any. Fighters from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) monitor an area along to the Syrian government through for the full return of government Syria’s northern border with Turkey. (AFP) an interview with the London-based agencies to all cities and towns Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat, ask- held by the Kurdish militias since ing for help to “protect the borders 2012, along with the surrender of all did not object — although it has ian Army. This would keep Erdogan ing Kurdish culture, which had been and lands of Syria,” adding: “We are heavy arms and the raising of the been eyeing Manbij for three years — happy, expanding the buffer zone a taboo topic prior to 2011. ready for joint action against Tur- Syrian flag. preferring to see Syrian troops in the he has been carving out of Syrian Friends in Damascus would k e y.” Still hoping at the time that the city, rather than Kurdish militias. territory since mid-2016, one that also get accommodated, given the Ever since US President Donald Americans would come to their aid, keeps both ISIS and the Kurds away chance to return to vast stretches Trump announced he was with- the Kurds refused, offering only to Ever since Trump from his borders. of territory from where they have drawing US troops from Syria, surrender the demolished Arab city announced he was The Kurds have been promised been absent since 2011. On January Kurdish leaders have been racing of Raqqa, the former capital of the they would not to be eradicated in 9, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister against time, trying to find some- Islamic State (ISIS), which they had withdrawing troops from exchange for full cooperation with Faisal Mekdad was upbeat, saying: body to protect them from a Turk- liberated in 2017. That illusion has Syria, Kurdish leaders have Moscow and Damascus. They would “I feel that we must always be op- ish onslaught. Even if the Ameri- vanished. been racing against time, have to accept what they rejected timistic. The past experiences were cans extended their stay for weeks, They are making a new offer, say- trying to find somebody to last year: Surrender of heavy arms, not encouraging but now matters months or even years, they were ing that, in exchange for govern- protect them from a border positions and all manifesta- are reaching their conclusion. The bound to pack up and leave at one ment help, they would dismantle Turkish onslaught. tions of statehood. conditions are favourable for them point or another, given that their their positions along the Syrian- They would get to keep their light to return to the state!” long-term military presence in Syria Turkish border, handing them fully The only person talking to all arms for the protection of their towns This is a far cry from a statement was unsustainable. to the Syrian Army. A “rehearsal” sides is Russian President Vladimir and be given a say over their future, by Foreign Minister Walid Muallem Bracing himself for that golden was staged in the Arab city of Man- Putin. He has seemingly hammered through joining local councils — only in September 2017, when he said moment, Turkish President Recep bij last December, which has been out a deal that would restrict the under the watchful eye of the state, that Kurdish calls for semi-autono- Tayyip Erdogan has been prepar- held by Kurdish militias since its Turkish operations to countryside rather than independent of it. my were “negotiable.” ing an operation that would uproot liberation from ISIS in June 2016. border villages and towns only, All talk of independence or semi- Kurdish separatists from strategic Days before New Year’s, Syrian steering clear from major cities Ha- autonomy would be scrapped but Sami Moubayed is a Syrian towns such as Kobane and Ras al- troops returned to the city, in col- sakah, Qamishly and others, half of they would be able to use their lan- historian and author of “Under the Ayn, similar as to how he raided laboration with the Kurds. Ankara which are in the hands of the Syr- guage while protecting and promot- Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Ceasefire sees jihadists cement grip over Idlib

James Snell Elizabeth Tsurkov, a research [JTS] into individual pockets that controlled,” Tsurkov noted. It seems HTS’s campaign has met fellow at the Forum for Regional could be dealt with sequentially, Zenki appears to have been al- with success while its opponents Thinking, said: “JTS is disintegrat- understanding and exploiting each most wiped out in the recent fight- have faltered, possibly permanent- London ing before our eyes with the rapid pocket and constituent units’ broad ing. Ahrar al-Sham and its allies face ly. fall of western Aleppo, Sahl al-Ghab unwillingness to mount a defence a similar crisis. Idlib’s large civilian population he conflict between the and southern Idlib.” coordinated with the others.” O’Farrell said a pocket held by already has much to bear. It is the government of Syrian Presi- Analyst Ryan O’Farrell explained Tsurkov noted that “Hayat Tahrir Ahrar al-Sham and Suqour al- target of a threatened regime of- dent Bashar Assad and its how HTS’s tactics allowed it to reach al-Sham appears determined to gain Sham, which included Ariha and fensive. Fighting in the province T enemies has slowed in Idlib, this point. “HTS has pursued a per- control over all areas that remain Maarat al-Numan, stood as “the between rival factions makes the halted by a precarious ceasefire. sistent strategy of seizing critical under rebel control, sensing that last bastion of the non-HTS op- ordinary life hard. HTS supremacy However, fighting between groups areas from other rebel factions, be- Turkey, JTS’s backer, is not going to position that is willing to oppose will make life harder still. in the province is subject to no such ginning with the border areas with intervene on the side of the rebels it HTS militarily” but looked under “Even if HTS takes over all of Idlib, regulation. Rebel factions and ji- Turkey,” O’Farrell said. spent years arming and financing. threat. The subsequent ceasefire, [the province] will remain home to a hadists continue to tussle for con- “While almost all other rebel fac- “JTS forces are… outgunned and as reported, included the expan- population that largely rejects HTS’s trol of the city. tions had nominally united into a sense that there is no point in con- sion of HTS’s administrative sphere strict interpretation of Islamic law,” One of the groups, Hayat Tahrir mutual defence pact, HTS nonethe- tinuing to resist HTS as it sweeps to encompass both settlements and Tsurkov said. “The dominance of al-Sham (HTS) was considered a less managed to compartmentalise across towns and villages they once their surrounds. HTS and its repression of opponents direct affiliate of al-Qaeda and, re- produce silence but it should not gardless of its formal relationship be interpreted as support for HTS, with al-Qaeda, HTS remains theo- merely acquiescence for the sake of logically extreme and marked by its survival.’” use of violence. The absence of involvement from Last year, the Syrian Liberation external forces is striking. Front (JTS), an alliance of relatively Turkey openly supported JTS’s moderate Islamist groups in Idlib, founding and opposed HTS domi- sought to challenge HTS’s suprema- nance in Idlib. It did so not only for cy. JTS included Ahrar al-Sham and reasons of claimed humanitarian- the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement, ism but also necessity. Violence in which was part of HTS at the latter’s Idlib exacerbates Turkey’s prob- founding. lems with its Syrian border and pre- The groups that made up the vents it from combating either the new alliance had, when they stood Syrian Kurdish groups it labels ter- separately, lost ground to HTS. To- rorists or the Islamic State. gether, and with the tacit backing “The decision of foreign pow- of Turkey, the forces making up JTS ers to withdraw their support from wrested control from HTS of signifi- forces opposing jihadism, both civil cant areas of Idlib, as well as parts of society organisations and rebels, Aleppo and Hama provinces. These weakened their ability to resist the gains have been almost entirely re- dominance of HTS,” said Tsurkov. versed. Turkey’s decision not to inter- After a week of fighting, in which vene as JTS collapsed led to the vic- some parts of JTS were nearly wiped tory of HTS jihadists. This outcome, out, a ceasefire was reportedly which raises questions about Anka- signed between the combatants. ra’s strategy, will have wide-ranging HTS propaganda organs hold consequences, many of which will that the truce compels JTS forces only begin to become known as the to stand down and acknowledge state of Syria changes in the coming the HTS-supported Syrian Salvation year. Government’s pre-eminence in Idlib Al-Qaeda’s shadow. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters at a camp in northern Idlib province, last August. and beyond. (AFP) James Snell is a British journalist. 14 January 13, 2019 News & Analysis Lebanon Lebanese politics complicate preparations for Beirut summit

The Arab Weekly staff cus’s wishes, especially if he is of led by Walid Jumblatt; and the Leba- the opinion there is an encourag- nese Forces Party, led by Samir Gea- ing Arab mood towards Syria in gea, have stated positions against Beirut light of Sudanese President Omar resuming relations with Syria. al-Bashir’s visit to Damascus and Lebanese President Michel Aoun lans for the Arab Economic the opening of UAE and Bahraini is reported to have said that the Summit in Beirut stumbled embassies in Damascus, They are summit will take place as planned on complicating local fac- seen as indications of the process because there is a caretaker govern- P tors, issues not unrelated to of allowing Syria back into the Arab ment in Lebanon. Berri’s remarks forming a new Lebanese govern- League. sounded as if they were directed ment. Syria’s membership in the Arab against Aoun. Berri and his parlia- Beirut announced that logistical League was suspended in Novem- mentary bloc voted against Aoun in preparations for the January 19-20 ber 2011 because of Assad’s use of presidential elections. summit are in place but declarations the military to quell popular pro- The statements of both camps are No government, no summit. Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih by Lebanese parliament Speaker Na- tests. likely coloured by tensions created Berri gestures at the presidential palace in Baabda. (Reuters) bih Berri cast doubts about whether Berri, however, has taken a purely by the insistence of Aoun and Bassil the meetings would take place. populist stance because he knows — the president’s son-in-law — on Berri called for postponing the that Lebanon is only the host coun- having 11 ministers in the next cabi- the Arab Economic Summit was which would determine the level of summit because there was no Leba- try and that any decision to have net, which would give them enough not an encouraging factor towards representation of other Gulf coun- nese government in place. Com- or postpone the summit would be voting power to block the govern- forming a government. It has, rath- ties. They said the Saudi attendance plicating the situation further, he made by the Arab League. Other ment. er, become another reason for de- may fall short of Lebanese hopes. requested that Syria attend the sum- Lebanese authorities said they have bate and divisiveness. While the Arab League hasn’t an- mit. no intention of postponing the sum- Beirut announced that The sources said the summit will nounced a decision regarding the Berri has often been chided by Da- mit. take place as scheduled unless there summit, sources did not rule out a mascus for his ambiguous position Lebanese Foreign Minister Ge- preparations for the is an emergency or an Arab position postponement if it turned out that on the regime of President Bashar bran Bassil said Beirut was “not the January 19-20 summit to prevent it or if Aoun determines the expected participation was be- Assad during the Syrian civil war. decision maker” in inviting Syria to were in place but that circumstances in Lebanon low the level of representation of a Through his position on the sum- the summit “but it can initiate and declarations by Lebanese make it impossible to have the sum- “summit.” mit, it looks as if wanted to start the work for its presence.” Hezbollah Parliament Speaker Nabih mit in Beirut. Berri knows that. Other sources would not rule out bidding on the necessity to have Syr- said Lebanon should invite Syria Berri cast doubts about It seemed surprising that Berri that some countries would purpose- ia attend the summit. Berri has said to the meetings because it would whether the meetings encroached on the president’s pre- ly raise their level of participation that he would not attend the meet- “strengthen Lebanon and serve its would take place. rogatives and risked becoming en- so it wouldn’t be said that a summit ings of the Arab Inter-Parliamentary strategic interest.” tangled in a controversial position not attended by Damascus does not Union if Syria is left out. Members of the March 14 Alli- This insistence undermined an with the Arab League when the enjoy high-level stature. Even though Berri tried to main- ance, which opposes the Assad re- agreement concerning the crisis prevailing impression in the Arab Some said that, if Damascus is tain a balance locally and on the gime, said they were against invit- created by Hezbollah’s insistence world is that Iran has control over included in the Arab League sum- Arab level, he was the first to send ing Syria to the economic summit. on allocating a cabinet position to Lebanese decisions. mit in March in Tunis, the success ministers from his Amal Movement Several of its leaders threatened to its Sunni bloc. Aoun refused to cede Lebanese authorities said Beirut of the Beirut meeting should be to Damascus towards normalising organise protests if Assad travelled one of his movement’s seats in the is waiting for confirmations of the ensured because it would represent Lebanese-Syrian relations. to Beirut. cabinet for the benefit of the “con- summit participation to form an the spirit of joint Arab action in a Analysts said Berri’s position on The Future Movement, headed sultative meeting of independent idea about the level of representa- country where Iranian influence is the Arab Economic Summit was an by Prime Minister-designate Saad Sunni representatives.” tion to the meetings. Experts fo- presumed to have made consider- occasion for him to meet Damas- Hariri; the Lebanese Socialist Party, Lebanese political sources said cused on Saudi Arabia’s decision, able inroads.

Viewpoint Beirut summit will only further pull Lebanon to the abyss he last time Beirut hosted a regional Arab summit, Lebanon and perhaps the Makram Rabah world were totally differ- ent. In 2002, Lebanon Twas a quasi-Syrian protectorate with a political system subservient to the Assad regime. More important, the US-led invasion of Iraq had not yet oc- curred and Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were still at bay and forbidden from meddling in the affairs of many Arab countries. Seventeen years ago, the summit was a testament of Arab support for Lebanon and its government under Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a larger- than-life figure who protected Lebanon and its economy from both internal and regional turmoil. As it stands, however, the Arab Economic and Social Development Summit, later this month in Beirut, rather than strengthening Leba- non’s position vis-a-vis its Arab neighbours, will further expose it to the many regional schisms that Poor prognosis. Lebanese President Michel Aoun (R) speaks with Prime Minister-designate Saad (AP) Lebanon’s political establishment Hariri at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, last December. neither has the acumen nor the will to navigate. the oil-rich Gulf countries, to bail Consequently, Lebanon under for Assad’s return by claiming that Lebanese President Michel out Lebanon and its unsalvageable Saad Hariri is no longer the appeal- such a measure would be within Aoun, Hezbollah’s main Christian economy and, just as it did on ing post-war success story that Lebanon’s economic interests. ally, is adamant for the summit numerous other occasions, to re- owes its resurgence to the Arabs Bassil’s simplistic yet sinis- to take place on time because it build the country’s barely existent but merely a willing hostage of ter logic exposes the crux of projects him as a true statesman infrastructure. Iran and its militia. Lebanon’s problems: The country’s and conceals the fact that the However, if the Beirut summit Equally, this summit will an- political elite believe they can play country’s governance structure is does take place, it will only con- tagonise and further radicalise the both sides of the regional conflicts in shambles. firm a few essential facts that the Syrian-Iranian axis, which looks at and get away with it. Joining him in the desire to see Lebanese refuse to acknowledge or the event as an opportunity to flex The Beirut summit might appear the summit through is Prime Min- even contemplate. its muscles and gloat about its so- to be a much-needed economic ister-designate Saad Hariri, whose For any of the Arab monarchs called victories in the region. lifeline to Lebanon; however, the inability to form a government has or even for their crown princes to Above all, Iran wants to return Lebanese would be better to wave been made even harder by Aoun’s make the trip to Beirut and to offer Syria to the Arab League, ending a off this perilous chance, which Lebanon under Saad party’s unrealistic demands for anything beyond token support, suspension of its membership since will only be a disappointment to Hariri is no longer government portfolios. the Lebanese government must 2011. Yet this bullish wishful think- all sides involved but more so to Equally, Hezbollah is working unequivocally prove its friendship ing is insufficient to end Syria’s the Lebanese who are looking at a the appealing post- to impose its own terms on Hariri, and camaraderie to its Arab guests. Arab isolation because it requires no-win situation at best, a scenario war success story who, over the years, has made This might prove an extremely the consensus of all 21 members of that can only pull the country fur- many concessions to both Syria difficult undertaking because the the Arab League for Bashar Assad ther into the political abyss. that owes its and Iran, ones that have made him Lebanese government has failed to make his Beirut trip. resurgence to the a collaborator in the eyes of some time and again to curb the influ- Iran’s and Syria’s local allies, Makram Rabah is a lecturer at Arabs but merely a Arab Gulf countries. ence of Hezbollah over the state chiefly among them Lebanese the American University of Beirut Mistakenly, both Aoun and Hari- and prevent it from doing Iran’s Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, and author of “A Campus at War: willing hostage of ri see the summit as an occasion bidding in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Aoun’s son-in-law and political Student Politics at the American Iran and its militia. to lobby the Arab world, mainly beyond. heir, have been openly lobbying University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” January 13, 2019 15 News & Analysis Palestine Israel Netanyahu’s government manoeuvres to ensure US recognition of Israeli control over Golan

Ibrahim Kadouni allowing hundreds of protesters — mainly Palestinians — to travel through military-controlled zones London to amass along the Syrian-Israeli border and attempt to cross into ollowing the radical shift the occupied territory. in US Syria policy when US As the struggle intensified, Assad President Donald Trump allowed Iran and its regional proxy, F made his surprising with- Hezbollah, to operate near the de- drawal announcement in Decem- militarised zone. ber, Israel seems determined to Typical of the so-called Axis of take advantage of this unanticipat- Resistance is the pretext of “claim- ed pullout by mounting pressure to ing occupied territories and coun- attain recognition of sovereignty tering Israeli occupation.” This over the Golan Heights. narrative, which has been always Encouraged by Trump’s bold de- maintained by oppressive regimes cision in 2017 recognising Jerusalem as a pretext to justifying a crack- as the capital of Israel, Israeli Prime down on their people, is appar- Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ently no longer buying support at raised the issue during US national home. It is known that such rheto- security adviser John Bolton’s trip ric has been aimed only at promot- to Israel, reiterating the importance ing political auctions mastered by of Golan to Israel. regimes to smokescreen their un- During their news conference, countable failures and hold on to Netanyahu told Bolton: “When power. you’re there, you’ll understand why In line with the Israeli campaign we’ll never leave the Golan Heights and signalling a potential shift in and why it’s important for all coun- its traditional approach to the Go- tries to recognise Israeli sovereign- lan issue, the United States voted t y.” against a UN resolution that called This is not the first time Israeli on Israel to end its occupation of officials raised the question of US the Golan Heights. recognition to Israel’s hold on the Then-US Ambassador to the UN De facto rule. A Druze man speaks to a member of the Israeli security forces in the village of Majdal Golan. Last May, in an interview Nikki Haley said the resolution Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, last October. (AFP) with Reuters, Israeli Intelligence was “plainly biased against Israel.” Minister Yisrael Katz described en- “Further, the atrocities the Syrian dorsement of Israel’s hold on the regime continues to commit prove “To support Israel’s right to self- with Israel highlighting the will to longer among such objectives, it Golan as the issue “topping the its lack of fitness to govern anyone. defence, Washington should take secure the return of the territory as could be projected that a poten- agenda” in talks with the United The destructive influence of the the long overdue step of affirming a precondition for any peace deal. tial US recognition might be in the States. Iranian regime inside Syria pre- Israeli sovereignty over the Golan However, dynamics have drasti- pipeline to complete the Trumpian During the same month, Yair Lap- sents major threats to international Heights.” cally changed since then, certainly package initiated by the embassy id, the Yesh Atid party leader, ac- security,” she said. Besides its political and strategic with the far-reaching repercus- move before the US policy shift ac- companied 40 international diplo- significance, the Golan Heights, a sions of the long Syrian conflict complishes the departure from the mats on a tour to the Golan Heights 1,200 sq. kilometre plateau on the More than ever, Israel thinks Middle Eastern quicksand. and asked them to recognise Israel’s More than ever, Israel Syria-Israel border and neighbour- that its de facto rule over the Golan While such a shift might not sovereignty over the area. thinks that its de facto rule ing Jordan and Lebanon, functions Heights is irreversible and might be mean the United States is braced to Lapid was quoted saying: “We over the Golan Heights is like a natural vantage point over- off the table for any future peace recognise Israeli sovereignty over came here to show them the com- irreversible and might be looking most of southern Syria, in- talks. More concerning, Israel the Golan Heights, it is indicating plexity of the northern arena, in off the table for any future cluding Damascus. could exchange its acceptance of changing realities, not only in the which — in addition to Lebanon The Golan Heights is the site of Assad regime in return to potential vicinity of the occupied plateau on another side — there is Syria on peace talks. more than 30 Jewish settlements, US and possibly Russian recogni- overlooking a war-torn country but one side, which is having more and with an estimated total of 20,000 tion of its sovereignty over the Go- also with the unprecedented divide more Iranian boots on the ground US Senators Ted Cruz and Tom settlers. Israel enjoys remark- lan Heights, thanks to the unlim- across the Arab world. as they deploy in the territory and Cotton called on the United States able economic dividends from the ited support demonstrated by the Although Israel has always paid Hezbollah, the biggest terror organ- to recognise Israeli rule over the heights, benefiting from its fertile Trump administration and to the less regard to international laws isation on Earth, aiming at us more Syrian plateau, which was captured soil and abundant water sources. desperate Russian needs to resta- and UN resolutions inflicting its than 100,000 missiles.” during the Six-Day War in 1967 and During US-brokered Syrian-Is- bilising Assad regime while under- homemade realities, its Golan-re- Lapid was telling a kind of half- annexed by Israel in 1981, although raeli peace negotiations in 1999, mining Iranian influence in Syria. lated campaign might give a hint truth. Pursuant to the outbreak that act has not been recognised in- Israel embraced the opinion of Bolton has remarked that some that a green light has been obtained of the Syrian conflict, cynically ternationally. returning the Golan Heights in ex- objectives would have to be met to go ahead. enough, the Assad regime broke its In their statement, made on the change for peace. Also, in 2003, before a US withdrawal from Syria long-standing silence and attempt- same day as Bolton’s visit to Is- Syrian President Bashar Assad said takes place. Presuming that remov- Ibrahim Kadouni is a ed to play the Golan Heights card, rael, the Republican senators said: he was ready to refresh peace talks ing Iranian boots from Syria is no London-based Syrian journalist. Viewpoint Will 2019 see an end to the Hamas-Fatah divide?

he media war between The lack of trust has been ac- focate and embarrass the rulers Palestinian cause and focusing on the two main rival Pales- cumulating. In late December, of Gaza. solidifying personal power? tinian political factions, Palestinian President Mahmoud Millions of US dollars have It is unknown when Palestinian Yousef Alhelou Fatah and Hamas, has Abbas dissolved the Palestinian reached Gaza in recent months in elections would take place and resumed with a vicious legislative council ahead of parlia- suitcases carried by Mohammad even whether they would be the Ttone. mentary elections in the Palestin- al-Imadi, the Qatari ambassador solution to more than 12 years of Tensions were sparked by an ian territories within six months. to the PA, who supervises housing divisions. Would Israel even allow attack January 4 on the headquar- The announcement was made projects in Gaza. them to take place in Jerusalem? ters of the Palestinian Broadcast- in a meeting of the Palestinian There are claims the financial Good intentions are needed to ing Corporation (PBC). The head leadership, including the Palestine aid aims to blackmail Hamas to boost the morale of the Palestinian of the PBC and Fatah officials Liberation Organisation Executive stop weekly protests demanding people, who have been struggling accused Hamas, the de facto ruler Committee and Abbas’s Fatah Par- the lifting of the Israeli blockade for self-determination while being of the besieged Gaza enclave, ty’s Central Committee. Hamas, and the implementation of the met with brutal Israeli force. Israe- of being behind the attack, dur- which won a landslide victory in right of return for millions of Pal- li military incursions are carried ing which cameras, editing and the 2006 elections, rejected the estinian refugees. out daily across the occupied West broadcast equipment worth nearly move, describing it as “worthless” Punitive measures against Gaza Bank not far from Abbas’s office. $150,000 were destroyed. and continued regular sessions at would aggravate the economic Israeli soldiers storm houses Hamas’s Interior Ministry the PLC headquarters in Gaza. crisis there. Payment of salaries and media offices — including the condemned the attack and, after The finger pointing towards who to thousands of Palestinian civil Palestinians’ Wafa news agency — an investigation, alleged that the started the rift has become the servants would be suspended. and such acts cannot be prevented attackers were former Fatah mem- norm because each party accuses Hamas and Fatah have failed to by Palestinian security forces bers whose salaries were cut by the other of being the obstacle end their split since 2007. A lack of due to signed agreements. House the West Bank government led by stopping the implementation of trust has aggravated the situation demolitions and confiscations of Good intentions are Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah. agreements reached under Arab and media incitements continued land have become almost daily needed to boost the Fatah withdrew its employees and regional mediation. unabated. Egypt brokered a Pal- occurrences. from the Rafah border crossing The renewed tensions will affect estinian reconciliation deal that Palestinian national unity is morale of the in the southern Gaza Strip. This the security situation on Israel’s provides for Hamas to give up Israel’s greatest threat and most Palestinian people, could exacerbate the suffering of border with the Gaza Strip. Hamas control of Gaza to Abbas but a dis- challenging issue. Palestinians who have been Gaza’s 2 million people living un- threatened to direct its anger pute over power-sharing hindered must protect their internal and der crippling Israeli siege for more against Israel for halting Qatari implementation of the agreement. external fronts and realise that the struggling for self- than 12 years because the Egyptian money from reaching Gaza. The Many Palestinians ask why Israeli policy of divide and rule determination while side asserted that the presence of PA considers the Qatari funds as Palestinian brothers are fighting must end. Palestinian Authority (PA) employ- rescuing Hamas from its crisis and over an incomplete authority being met with ees necessary for operation of the therefore it pressed Israel — an under military occupation. Why Yousef Alhelou is a Palestinian brutal Israeli force. border terminal. occupying power — to further suf- is the leadership abandoning the journalist living in London. 16 January 13, 2019 News & Analysis Turkey Ankara might not have free hand in Syria after US exit

Thomas Seibert States has enlisted the YPG as the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia alliance in Istanbul the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). ussia and the Syrian gov- US President Donald Trump’s an- ernment of Bashar Assad nouncement in December to with- could be the winners of a draw US forces sharpened the row. R new row between NATO Bolton asked Turkey to guarantee allies Turkey and United States the safety of YPG fighters after the over the future of northern Syria, US pullout, a demand rejected by analysts said. Erdogan. Just months after turbulences in “John Bolton has made a very se- Turkish-US relations calmed fol- rious mistake,” Erdogan said Janu- lowing the release of a US pastor ary 8 while Bolton was meeting from jail in Turkey, a simmering with other Turkish officials. “We conflict between the two countries cannot make any concessions in erupted into open controversy Jan- this regard.” uary 8 during a visit by US national He said Ankara’s preparations for Filling a vacuum. A Russian soldier guards a checkpoint in Bosra in south-western Syria. (AFP) security adviser John Bolton to An- a military offensive against the YPG kara. were, “to a large extent,” complete. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Tensions between Turkish and shower for Bolton,” said the head- stabilise regions in Syria liberated of our deliberate withdrawal from Erdogan refused to meet with Bol- US officials ran high during the vis- line in the Aydinlik newspaper. from ISIS. Syria. Out of concern for operation- ton and said his military was pre- it. Erdogan’s top security adviser, “Erdogan is both playing to his Russia, Assad’s ally and the lead- al security, we will not discuss spe- paring to cross into northern Syria Ibrahim Kalin, who met with Bol- domestic base and trying to negoti- ing military power in Syria, can be cific timelines, locations or troop despite calls by the United States ton for more than two hours, said ate tough with the Americans,” said expected to play a more active role movements,” US Army Colonel not to do so. Turkish Foreign Min- Turkey would not ask the United Nicholas Heras, Middle East secu- in the area once US troops are gone, Sean Ryan said. ister Mevlut Cavusoglu suggested States for permission to strike the rity fellow at the Centre for a New said Gonul Tol, director of the Cen- The development could reinforce the intervention could start before YPG and demanded that the United American Security, a Washington tre for Turkish Studies at the Mid- efforts by the Assad government to the US withdrawal of its troops was States collect weapons that Wash- think-tank. dle East Institute in Washington. regain international acceptance af- completed. ington had given to Kurdish fight- “The fact of the matter is that “Turkey managed to launch two ter almost eight years of war, said Bolton’s failure to change Anka- ers for battles against ISIS. both Erdogan and Bolton know operations in Syria because Russia Joshua Landis, director of the Cen- ra’s plans means that a coordinated Bolton rebuked an opinion ar- that the Turkish military would gave the green light,” Tol said by tre for Middle East Studies at the approach in northern Syria by Tur- ticle by Erdogan published in the only enter the areas east of the Eu- telephone, in reference to Turk- University of Oklahoma. The “YPG key and the United States, which New York Times in which the Turk- phrates river in north-eastern Syria ish incursions in 2016 and 2018. “If will patch up relations with Damas- has 2,000 troops in the region, has ish leader restated his position that in order to wipe out the SDF,” Heras America is out of the picture, Rus- cus as soon as US troops pull,” Lan- become unlikely. Russia and the SDF fighters were members of ter- said via e-mail. sia might be not as willing to accept dis wrote on Twitter. Damascus government could see rorist groups and criticised the US The row with Washington could a Turkish presence in Syria.” If Damascus teams up with the their role in the area strengthened air campaign against ISIS. An offi- limit Turkey’s room to manoeuvre There are signs Russia is stepping Kurds to fight ISIS in eastern Syria, as a result. cial at the meeting said Bolton told in northern Syria instead of widen- up military activities in northern the United States will face a dilem- Turkey and the United States Kalin that Erdogan’s column was ing it. The PYD has reached out to Syria. Russian military police have ma, Landis wrote. are divided by their view of the “wrong and offensive,” the Associ- the Damascus government for pro- been patrolling near the Kurdish- “If Assad and the YPG begin to Kurdish-Syrian Democratic Union ated Press reported. tection from Turkey once the US held town of Manbij, the Associ- cooperate on counterterrorism, Party (PYD) and its militia, the Peo- Erdogan’s hard-line stance, forces withdraw. ated Press said. Washington will have to follow. ple’s Protection Units (YPG), the clearly catering to domestic audi- Turkey’s Arab rivals could go to The US-led anti-ISIS coalition This, I believe, is what really infu- dominant local forces in the area. ences less than three months be- the Kurds’ defence as well. Last said on January 11 that the process riates the Bolton crowd. US policy While Turkey sees the PYD and the fore Turkish local elections, won year, Saudi Arabia promised to pay of the US pullback had started. The has been to turn out Assad, not to YPG as terrorist groups, the United applause in the local media. “Cold the United States $100 million to coalition “has begun the process reopen relations with him,” he said. Viewpoint Turkey-PKK grand bargain is a pipe dream

uch is the spirit of the times were we? to Moscow? Is Erdogan aware that opening for a grand bargain, for that we are continually Oh, yes, the endless arm those elements are insidiously a comprehensive peace between bewildered by the reason- wrestling in Syria, with Russia and preparing the ground to force him Turkey and the Kurds in the region. Iran gleefully preparing for the next in a different direction? Really? Yavuz Baydar ing — or rather the unrea- sonableness — of people steps to a post-Sykes-Picot era. They want to compel Erdogan If you listen to those pundits, Sin different parts of the world. I’m Moscow and Tehran hope the new to abandon his vision of Syria as who seem to be taken seriously not talking about Brexit or about reality will reduce a dysfunctional dominated by a subordinate Sunni even by the Washington Post, it’s the wall that is supposed to prevent NATO to convulsions and that segment. the perfect time for the White illegal immigration into the United Turkey becomes a game spoiler in These are the same forces that House to engage Ankara and force States. This is about the region with their favour. unite with Erdogan against what its chief enemy, the Kurdistan the mother of all problems: the To predict what Ankara wants they see as a common enemy, the Workers’ Party (PKK), to new talks. Middle East. in this messy picture is anybody’s Kurds. They are determined on However, those pundits agree What spreads unreasonableness guess. What is generally missing what must happen if they are to that at least one condition will have like an epidemic is accelerating in any overall analysis is that the share power with Erdogan and to be met. The PKK would withdraw disarray in Washington. It began deep disarray in the American his Islamists. The battle against from Turkey and give free rein to with the Obama administration administration keeps pace with the Kurds will have to remain Erdogan to do the rest, which is to and is a source of wild speculation. the infighting in Ankara. In the relentless. Maintaining high levels adopt the role of protector of the There have been shockingly visible corridors of power in the Turkish of pressure on both domestic and region’s Kurds. flip-flop decisions by US President capital, the struggle is discreet but Syrian Kurds is important. We shall hear more of such Donald Trump and a slew of intense. It is about who will truly be Given this brutal reality and nonsense in the coming weeks. dismissals and resignations, not in charge. the mixed messages from the Irrationality, as I said, has become least that of US Defence Secretary Turkish President Recep Tayyip United States, it is amazing to see an epidemic. James Mattis. Erdogan calls the shots. But does he that some pundits discern new The facts of the matter are as Recently, US Secretary of State really? opportunity in the situation. Those follows: Had Erdogan been sincere, Mike Pompeo took the stage. What about those who openly “experts” recently suggested that he would have had a golden There he was in Egypt on January favour reopening dialogue with Trump’s erratic decision to pull opportunity and public support to 10 contradicting not only what Damascus and keeping ever closer out his troops from Syria is an negotiate a peace process with the President Barack Obama said in Kurds five years ago. He blew it. Cairo a decade ago but also the Why would he do anything different decision of his boss, Trump. now, when surrounded by hawks? “America is a force for good in Besides, a grand bargain would the Middle East,” Pompeo said at require fundamental reform to the American University in Cairo. grant Turkish Kurds all their rights, “We need to acknowledge that truth as well as accountability for crimes because if we don’t, we make bad against humanity perpetrated since Had Erdogan been choices… When America retreats, 2015. sincere, he would chaos follows.” It is a pipe dream to float the idea He added: “President Trump of the United States, whose concern have had a golden has made the decision to bring is to block Iran’s advancement, opportunity and our troops home from Syria. We helping to bring Ankara and the public support to always do and now is the time but PKK together but such are the times this isn’t a change of mission. We we live in. Not just fake news but negotiate a peace remain committed to the complete fake opinions. process with the dismantling of the [Islamic State] threat and the ongoing fight against Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish journalist Kurds five years ago. radical Islamism in all its forms.” Empty rhetoric. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to and regular columnist for The Arab He blew it. Are we back to square one? Where the media at the parliament in Ankara, January 8. (AP) Weekly. January 13, 2019 17 Debate Iran Iran’s opaque politics of succession to Khamenei

Khamenei knows he lacks Khomeini’s standing. “For Khame- nei to express a public choice and Gareth Smyth the assembly then pick someone else could be dangerous,” said Saeid Golkar, lecturer in Middle East and North African studies at Northwestern University. iscussion of the loom- “Khamenei’s office and even his ing succession to family might be the target of a Iran’s supreme leader, new leader. It’s far more likely 79-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei will try to shape the Ali Khamenei, has little outcome discretely.” Dto go on. The sole precedent is Hence Khamenei’s influence 1989 when Khamenei replaced may remain as mysterious as the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, rest of the process. charismatic leader of the 1979 “The Assembly of Experts revolution and architect of the already has the ‘Article 107 and Islamic Republic. 109 Committee,’ called after the The constitutional rules are constitutional articles dealing unchanged: Iran’s leader is cho- with the succession, which has sen by the Iranian Assembly of been meeting and presumably Experts (Majles-e Khobregan-e checking the backgrounds of Rahbari), an elected body that several candidates,” said Farhi. currently has 88 clerics. Khame- “Its proceedings are secret. Raeisi nei’s rise followed the removal of is a member of this committee but a constitutional requirement that Who’s next? Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sits next to a picture of the late its chairman is Ayatollah Morteza the leader be a pre-eminent cleric. founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, last March. (AFP) Moqtadai.” It was an amendment favoured There is another complication. by Khomeini to facilitate Khame- In the interregnum between lead- nei. Within a day of Khomeini’s between state institutions, espe- professor of political science at ers, which could be longer than in death, careful management by cially parliament, and the watch- the University of Hawaii. 1989, the constitution provides for Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the dog Guardian Council. Shahroudi “The only person I can imagine a three-person leadership council. era’s wiliest politician, ensured had held the post since 2017. managing the leader’s sprawling That would be made up of the the assembly backed Khomeini’s The main contenders to follow office with some authority if president, the judiciary chief and choice. Khamenei appear to be Larijani Khamenei passed soon is Ro- one of the six clerical members of However, with the succession and Ebrahim Raeisi. The latter hani, given his vast experience the 12-person Guardian Council to Khamenei, questions abound. was appointed by Khamenei in throughout the life of the Islamic to be chosen by the Expediency What influence might lie with 2016 to head Astan Quds Razavi, Republic and his ability to stand, Council. The last, then, could be clerics in Qom or leaders of the Is- the foundation that manages the if barely, above the factional fray,” Larijani. lamic Revolutionary Guard Corps? Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad. she said, “but Rohani is not so Farhi said she is wary of predic- How might Khamenei shape the Other contenders lag much be- young, either, and his selection tions in what she calls a “guessing process? How important is theo- hind Larijani and Raeisi. Assem- seems unlikely given current game.” logical standing? bly of Experts Chairman Ayatollah power dynamics.” “Moving Raeisi to the judiciary Two recent events make these Ahmad Jannati, who is also chair- By precedent, Larijani is due to requires a replacement [at the questions particularly impor- man of the Guardian Council, is stand down in the summer after shrine] who may not be easily tant. The death December 24 of 91. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, a second 5-year term as judiciary found,” she said. “Raeisi also does Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi a 57-year-old substitute Friday chief. As well as appointing him not have much theological heft. Shahroudi, 70, removed someone prayer leader in Tehran, has to the EC, Khamenei named him He went to Qom at 15, became a widely seen as front-runner for scant administrative experience. a clerical member of the Guardian prosecutor at 21 and so has effec- leader until passed over in 2015 as Iranian President Hassan Rohani, Council. This gives Larijani a firm tively been a state functionary all head of the Assembly of Experts. 70, has moved closer to Khamenei standing near the apex of the hi- his life. He is certainly a candidate Second, Khamenei appointed since winning the 2013 and 2017 erarchy. Rumours suggest Khame- but I don’t think the choice is Sadegh Larijani, 58-year-old judi- elections but is resented by many nei will appoint Raeisi judiciary an easy one for Khamenei. The ciary chief, to replace Shahroudi conservatives, who dominate the chief, although it is unclear if he only two things that these recent as chairman of the Expediency Assembly of Experts. would also continue as head of moves suggest are that Khamenei Council (EC). The EC arbitrates No doubt Khamenei wants a the Imam Reza Foundation. prefers conservatives, as we smooth succession to encourage Does Khamenei have a prefer- already knew, and that his options stability and preserve the leader’s ence? If so, he may resist designat- are limited.” The main contenders to office as an institution whose ing a successor given the need follow Khamenei appear powers he has extended since for unity in the face of tightening Gareth Smyth is a regular 1989. The size of the leader’s of- sanctions and recent protests contributor to The Arab Weekly. He to be Sadegh Larijani and fice contributes to a “serious suc- by factory workers, farmers and has reported from the Middle East Ebrahim Raeisi. cession issue,” said Farideh Farhi, teachers. since 1992. What is Reza Pahlavi, prince of Iran, up to?

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini prince is not likely to mobilise economical with it. did four decades ago? the masses any time soon. Pahlavi’s candid style was on To judge by the Hamletian Pahlavi has also been rather display once again in December. Ali Alfoneh self-doubt and the honest inde- too truthful. Asked about the Making an appearance December cision Pahlavi has displayed in fate of Islamic Revolutionary 14 at the Washington Institute for recent public appearances, the Guard Corps (IRGC) officers Near East Policy, Pahlavi called prospects for his triumphant re- should there be regime change, for freedom of the press, even as turn to Tehran are dim, at least Pahlavi dithered. Rather than he attacked unnamed journalists s Iran descends ever in the near future. issuing a Khomeini style-gen- at Radio Farda, the Persian ser- deeper into economic Consider Pahlavi’s November eral amnesty, which the grand vice of Radio Free Europe/Radio and political crisis, interview with the London- ayatollah incidentally failed to Liberty, Voice of America and Reza Pahlavi’s star is based Iran International TV. honour after the 1979 revolu- BBC Persian. in the ascendant. Dur- Following a generally convinc- tion, Pahlavi discussed differ- The man who aspires to lead ingA anti-regime rallies, protest- ing performance, although one ent options. He distinguished the democratic opposition to the ers chanted “Reza Shah, blessed lacking a concrete plan of action between the innocent and those Islamic Republic accused journal- be thy soul,” a reference to the to topple the leadership in Iran, who perpetrated crimes. The ists at those outlets of being founder of Iran’s Pahlavi dynasty. the former crown prince was former would go free, the latter unduly influenced by the Islamic Protesters called for the return of asked: “Will you run the risk of would be punished, he said. Republic. Pahlavi may well share Reza Pahlavi, the former crown returning to Iran?” The distinction, of his father’s and grandfather’s prince, and the restoration of the Pahlavi responded: “It’s not course, forces the IRGC dislike of the free press but why monarchy in Iran. about risk but duty. However, leadership to support express it so directly? What mes- Pahlavi is giving more frequent one must, as the saying goes, the regime all the more sage did he communicate other television interviews. He has act rationally. The conditions energetically to escape than the spectre of censorship, been presenting his vision for a must be present. We do not act justice. Pahlavi has yet even if there was change in Iran? democratic Iran at highly pub- in a suicidal but in a rational to learn that complete Of course, there’s no account- licised Washington think-tank manner. We must take into con- honesty, which is a ing for destiny and Pahlavi could events. Can he capitalise on the sideration the emotional dimen- virtue among citizens, find himself back in Tehran misfortunes of the regime in sion by listening to our heart but is a vice for statesmen. despite his honesty and political Tehran? Is he capable of mobilis- we also have a brain and should The truth, after all, is missteps. After all, if Zahir Shah ing the nation against its rulers? put our faculty of reason to good the most precious of all managed to find his way back to Can he persuade the pillars of the use. It is a combination of both.” commodities and politi- Afghanistan, why should Pahlavi regime to withdraw their support In other words, although cal leaders must be not end up in Tehran? But does and shift loyalty, just as Grand Pahlavi’s heart desires his return he really want to take the mantle to Iran, his faculty of reason of leadership after the ignomini- dictates otherwise. Where does ous forced exit of the man who There’s no accounting for the conflict between Pahlavi’s previously sat on the Pea- emotions and intellect leave his cock Throne? destiny and Pahlavi could potential followers? Why should find himself back in Tehran they risk life and limb following Ali Alfoneh the lead of an undecided prince? is a visiting scholar at despite his honesty and Adorned with the thorny crown A voice for change. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last the Arab Gulf States political missteps. of doubt, the former crown shah before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. (AP) Institute in Washington. 18 January 13, 2019 News & Analysis East West Brussels trial of Jewish Museum terrorist highlights threat of jihadist returness

Mahmud el-Shafey carried out attacks in Europe. How- son said Kotey and Elsheikh had ever, that number could increase their citizenship taken away be- after the Syrian Democratic Forces cause they had “turned their back London (SDF) indicated that it would prefer on British ideas, British values.” to send captured foreign jihadists Williamson earlier said he would uropean countries continue back to their countries of origin for oppose the return of any terrorist to to question how to deal trial and imprisonment. the United Kingdom, regardless of with returning jihadists and “What we understand is that the the circumstances. “A dead terrorist E many officials are closely Europeans think… the filth they can’t cause any harm to Britain,” he watching the case of French jihadist had among them is out and they said. “I do not believe that any ter- Mehdi Nemmouche, who is charged don’t want them back. We don’t see rorist, whether they come from this with killing four people at the Jew- our country as a landfill and we do country or any other, should ever be ish Museum in Brussels in 2014 fol- not accept them,” SDF spokesman allowed back into this country.” lowing his return from Syria. Mustafa Bali said recently. As for those who have returned The Islamic State (ISIS), which the question is of identification and controlled large parts of Iraq and containment. Syria, has seen its territory shrink, Belgium has the highest per Nemmouche’s journey from petty with many foreign jihadists, such capita rate of returning criminal to hardened jihadist ap- as Nemmouche, returning to their jihadists from Syria and pears to be a well-trodden path. birth countries to continue the Iraq, with one-third of 125 The 33-year-old French-born jihad- fight. returnees known to be in ist fought in Syria for a year from “It is imperative that legal sys- 2013-14 before returning to Europe. tems are up to speed in countering prison in early 2018. He had a history of petty crime and new developments of the threat. had been imprisoned for theft and Many challenges from the last few The US-backed SDF is one of the aggravated robbery. It was while he years stem from the fact that most most powerful anti-ISIS groups in was in prison in France that he be- Western countries’ terrorism laws Syria and has taken control of sig- came radicalised and he travelled to were unprepared to cope with the nificant territory in northern Syria. Syria to join ISIS on his release. quantitative increase and qualita- US officials previously estimated A report by GLOBSEC, an NGO in tive shifts in radicalisation,” said that the SDF has more than 700 Bratislava, said nearly 80% of those Lorenzo Vidino, director of the Pro- foreign fighters in custody from ap- involved in 22 terror incidents in gramme on Extremism at George proximately 40 different countries. France since 2012 were on the terror Washington University. Bali called on European countries watch list and 97% had been known Writing for lawfareblog.com, Vi- to repatriate captured ISIS fight- to authorities as potential threats. dino pointed out that many Euro- ers or convene an EU or UN court Belgium has the highest per cap- pean countries did not have laws to take control of them. However, ita rate of returning jihadists from Second wave. A 2017 file picture shows a Belgian police officer criminalising participating in ter- many European countries have Syria and Iraq, with one-third of standing guard outside the court where French jihadist Mehdi rorist organisations abroad until already moved to ensure that re- 125 returnees known to be in prison Nemmouche appears in front of a judge in Brussels. (Reuters) recently. patriation is impossible, including in early 2018, Brussels think-tank “Even in those countries in which stripping captured fighters of citi- Egmont Institute stated. However, such laws existed, prosecuting ter- zenship. that leaves more than 80 returned wave of other Islamic State-linked their sentences are perhaps not so rorism financing and bringing evi- The United Kingdom stripped jihadists at large. or radicalised individuals that you heavy… this generation of early sup- dence from a battlefield to a civilian citizenship from several captured Interpol Secretary-General Jurgen might call ISIS 2.0,” he said. porters will be released in the next court are often difficult. As a result, ISIS fighters, including Alexanda Stock, speaking last December, said “A lot of these are suspected ter- couple of years and they may again of the more than 1,000 foreign Kotey and El Shafee Elsheikh, the Europe faces a major threat from re- rorists or those who are linked to be part of a terrorist group or those fighters from EU member states surviving members of the infamous turning jihadists in 2019, including terrorist groups as supporters who supporting terrorist activities,” he who returned to their native coun- “Beatles” group that carried out ex- many who have been convicted and are facing maybe two to five years in warned. tries, only a small percentage have ecutions for ISIS. sentenced to prison but who were jail. Because they were not convict- been prosecuted,” he wrote. Speaking in February 2018, UK approaching parole. ed of a concrete terrorist attack but Mahmud el-Shafey is an Arab Most of those were jihadists who Defence Secretary Gavin William- “We could soon be facing a second only support for terrorist activities, Weekly correspondent in London.

Viewpoint A weaker Macron is good news to European populists

opulist parties across in the streets to his austerity and undercurrents that are openly pull out. So much for a French Europe cannot hide their socially regressive economic anti-Muslim and call for a strong independent policy! relish at the discomfiture policies but the former is more hand, a military one at that, to run Beyond Syria, the French France. The fear of immigration Francis Ghilès of French President Em- popular than when he was voted president, alongside other manuel Macron. The prize into power last summer. runs deep in France and in Europe European leaders, opposes Trump’s Ppolitical leaders such as Austrian When he won election to the and will continue to shape the policy on Iran but is powerless to Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and presidency in May 2017, Macron political landscape, throwing up influence it. He has stayed close to Italian Interior Minister Matteo promised a revolution — it was populist forces, as it recently did Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Salvini are seeking is the takeover the title of his campaign book — to in Spain. In general elections, bin Salman bin Abdulaziz but of Europe in May’s European parlia- address a widespread need for Casado’s party, which gained France can do little to influence mentary elections. domestic renewal and rebooting power in Andalusia, in coalition the shape of relations between Kurz apparently feels vindicated of French prestige, not least on the with Citizens-Party of the Citizenry countries on the Arabian Peninsula by the hard-line stance on illegal European stage. and the People’s Party, could and in Iran. France, like Britain, immigration he took in 2015 The slow fading away of well gain seats in the Congress of does not have the means to when, across the border, German Merkel and what appears like an Deputies. conduct an independent policy in Chancellor Angela Merkel was increasingly paralysed president Beyond Europe, Macron’s the Middle East. welcoming refugees from Syria at home bode ill for the man grand Gaullist-Mitterrandist style European populists have no and elsewhere who were pouring who championed liberal and projection of French diplomacy is interest in promoting democracy in into Europe. He was accused of internationalist values across not faring well. In Mali, the fight the Middle East and North Africa, undermining European solidarity Europe. against terrorism is not going well; which will come as a great relief and values. Three years later, The yellow vest movement is far in Libya the president’s attempt to to the autocrats of the region. he has not only won power but from coherent in its aims but, like upstage the Italians diplomatically Like Trump, they seem to have a contained the rise of the far-right elsewhere in Europe, it reflects has fallen flat. liking for such rulers. All relations Freedom Party of Austria, which the new political reality: entire He is hardly faring better in are transactional and commercial had been leading Kurz’s People’s social groups feel pitted against the Middle East. There are the and no European leader wishes Party in opinion polls. one another — young versus old, United States’ unpredictable to offend Israel. Beyond local For Kurz and the new breed of unemployed versus employed, shifts. In Syria, US President consideration, there is no mileage right-wing leaders, such as Laurent rural versus urban, unqualified Donald Trump announces he is in French domestic politics to be Wauquiez in France, Pablo Casado versus qualified. pulling out immediately only to gained from the Middle East. The Beyond the social in Spain and Salvini, Macron’s In France such divisions be contradicted by his national less heard the better. protests that yellow vest predicament and a take on a quasi-existential security adviser John Bolton, who Macron starts 2019 in a much characterise the spluttering French economy (the dimension because of the ideal says US troops will not leave north- weaker position, domestically and Austrian economy is growing at of egalitarianism historically eastern Syria until Islamic militants internationally than 2018. Domestic yellow vest 2.7% of GDP) are very welcome associated with the republic. As a are defeated and US-allied Kurdish politics in North Africa are the only demonstrations, news. former merchant banker and elite fighters protected. ones in the region that might affect Russian President Vladimir civil servant, Macron all too often Trump’s original announcement French domestic politics or the there are nasty Putin’s relish is evident; so is US comes across as aloof, unfeeling drew widespread criticism and led vote in European elections in May. undercurrents that President Donald Trump’s. A short and prone to lecturing the lower to the resignation of US Defence Here again, Maghrebi politics and are openly anti- 12 months ago Macron branded classes. When he addressed the Secretary James Mattis. It raised the health of the region’s leaders himself the arch-enemy of Salvini French on New Year’s Eve, any fears of a Turkish assault on will matter more than anything the Muslim and call for and Hungarian Prime Minister sense of empathy for his fellow Kurdish fighters. French leader does. a strong hand, a Viktor Orban, two leaders whose citizens was absent. Macron opposed Trump’s trademark policies target migrants, Beyond the social protests decision but whatever happens in Francis Ghilès is an associate military one at that, political opponents and the rule that characterise the yellow vest Washington, there is no way French fellow at the Barcelona Centre for to run France. of law. The later faces opposition demonstrations, there are nasty special forces can stay if US troops International Affairs. January 13, 2019 19 News & Analysis East West

Viewpoint A historic day in US Congress as Tlaib and Omar take oath of office American tale. Congresswomen Rashida Tlaib James J. Zogby of Michigan (L) and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota (R) after their swearing-in at the US House of Representatives, January 4. (AP)

spent the morning of Janu- are starting small businesses and thobe when I am sworn into the in place since 1837 banning head ary 4 at the offices of two new seeing their children fulfil the 116th Congress.” attire on the floor of Congress was members of the US Congress: hopes that drew them to start a “This really happened! I am a scrapped. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and new life in America. US Congresswoman. Not bad for a I was struck by the comments Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. The When Jesse Jackson ran for girl from south-west Detroit who of the Palestinians, Somalis and Iscenes at both were delightful. president in 1984, his campaign didn’t speak English, daughter of Yemenis who filled the offices Throngs of Palestinian Americans slogan was “Our Time Has Come.” Palestinian immigrants.” of “their” two new members of jammed into Tlaib’s offices, spilling African Americans understood The effect of her decision was Congress. One woman, quoted in out into the hall. It was much his call and registered to vote amazing. Many of the Palestinian the Washington Post, reflected the the same at Omar’s but there in record numbers. When he women who came to her office feelings of many others when she the crowds were largely Somali rose to the podium of the 1984 wore thobes and men sported said: “This means everything to Americans and Yemeni Americans. Democratic National Convention keffiyehs. #Tweetyourthobe us. It means that we can get into Many had travelled hundreds to speak, African Americans felt trended on Twitter, as Palestinian- politics and make it to the highest of kilometres to witness history that they too had risen to new American women proudly level.” being made. Their excitement heights of empowerment. In displayed their cultural heritage. As I reflected on the meaning of was palpable. It was a day of the next few years, the effect of NBC-TV news anchor Ayman the day, I couldn’t help but think celebration, validation and Jackson’s campaign was realised. Mohyeldin posted a picture of of the larger message that was empowerment. The first American African elected his daughter and niece in thobes, unfolding. Somalis and Yemenis Palestinians, Somalis and as governor, Douglas Wilder in writing: “As the son of a Palestinian face a discriminatory policy Yemenis are among the most Virginia, and others became mayors mother, it’s a milestone for banning their entry into the United beleaguered communities in in many major US cities. Palestinian Americans to see their States affecting their families and the United States. Many moved heritage and culture reflected in reflecting the general hostility to to the United States or are the their elected officials. Young girls refugees and immigrants from the descendants of those who arrived As I reflected on the like my daughter and niece now Middle East. as economic or political refugees have officials they can see and Palestinians face hostility from from deeply troubled regions meaning of the day, aspire to be like one day!” an administration and a Congress plagued by war and hardship. I couldn’t help but Omar’s story is a fascinating that not only refuse to recognise Once in the United States they think of the larger and important American tale. She the rights and humanity of their have been disproportionately was born in Somalia. Her father people but have taken punitive hounded by law enforcement, message that was is Somali, her mother Yemeni. At measures against them. spied on, profiled and victimised unfolding. age 9, she and her father became Add to this, there are the by discrimination. Nevertheless, refugees. She moved to the United nativism, xenophobia and these immigrant communities have The Jackson-like victory feeling States when she was 12 as a Islamophobia fuelled by the worked hard to make their way in was evident being in Tlaib’s and refugee. president. their new country. Omar’s offices. To their respective In several tweets, she reflected Despite this, these two women, Like other American success communities, the victories of these on the remarkable trajectory of her who embody the endangered stories, many Palestinians, Somalis two women were a shared victory, life: “23 years ago, from a refugee ideals of the United States, will and Yemenis began at the bottom opening a door to unlimited camp in Kenya, my father and I now be serving in Congress. More rung of the economic ladder and, possibilities for them and for their arrived at an airport in Washington than that, they are progressive within less than a generation, children. DC. Today, we return to that same champions elected on platforms began to climb upward. Tlaib is the daughter of airport on the eve of my swearing- that commit to fighting for raising Forty years ago, Yemenis, for Palestinian immigrants and in as the first Somali-American in the minimum wage, universal example, were labourers and farm has a grandmother living in the Congress.” health care and college education workers. Today they count among West Bank. Always proud of her “As someone who has seen and environmental and economic their ranks thousands of successful Palestinian heritage, she made what it means to seek asylum at a justice. Both are savvy legislators small businessmen with their a point of wearing a traditional border and be received with such who understand their roles and will children having become lawyers, Palestinian thobe to her swearing- generosity, I want to make sure make a mark in Congress. doctors and engineers. in ceremony. we understand there are other It was a historic day of firsts: It was a historic day of Palestinians, who have been Reflecting on her decision countries who take in so many of the first Muslim women, the first here longer, have a similar success and her victory, she wrote: the world’s most pained people. In immigrant, the first African, the firsts: the first Muslim story to tell. The children of the “Throughout my career in public the US, we can do better,” she said. first Palestinian-American woman women, the first Palestinian grocers, with whom I service, the residents I have had Also tweeting: “From a refugee have taken their oath of office and immigrant, the first worked 40 years ago, are successful the privilege of fighting for have camp in Kenya to the Capitol, this for three communities it was a entrepreneurs or college-educated embraced who I am, especially my story has come full circle. This is day when the promise of America African, the first professionals. Palestinian roots. This is what I the America I believe in and the became real. Palestinian-American Somalis, with most of their want to bring to the US Congress, one I will never stop fighting for.” community having arrived in the an unapologetic display of the It’s worth noting that Omar, who James J. Zogby is president of woman have taken last three decades, are on the same fabric of the people of this country. wears a hijab, has already made one the Arab American Institute in their oath of office. path of upward mobility. They That is why I decided to wear a change. In deference to her, a rule Washington. 20 January 13, 2019 Economy Energy

Iraq-Jordan border industrial zone Briefs Dubai’s DIFC set to bolster economic exchange expansion plan gets approval

Roufan Nahhas Dubai Ruler Sheikh Moham- med bin Rashid al-Maktoum has approved a plan to increase the Amman area of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). ordan and Iraq expect to bol- The state-owned free zone is the ster economic ties with a bor- major finance centre in the Middle der industrial zone that prom- East, hosting international banks, J ises 50,000 job opportunities insurance companies and invest- and a host of projects to revitalise ment firms. Companies registered bilateral trade. at the DIFC benefit from a 40-year The industrial zone is planned guarantee of zero taxes on corpo- to reinforce economic cooperation rate income and profit. in all fields with the help of private The new district will include ap- sector in both countries. It is also proximately 600,000 sq. metres of meant to facilitate exports of tax- office space when completed, the exempted Jordanian goods to the statement said. Iraqi market and build mutually beneficial strategic projects. (Reuters) Jordanian King Abdullah II and Iraqi President Barham Salih last November agreed to expand coop- eration in economy, trade, invest- Egypt introduces ment, energy and transport. This includes, in addition to the border price index for zone, construction of an oil pipe- line from Basra to Aqaba and reha- fuel linked to bilitation of the Amman-Baghdad oil prices highway. Amman-based Iraqi investor Egypt has created an automatic (AP) Osama Dabbagh applauded what he New opportunities. Iraqi flags fly at the Karameh-Turaibil border crossing on the Iraq-Jordan border. price index mechanism for 95-oc- described as “most positive move.” tane gasoline. “Establishing the industrial zone enter Iraq daily. benefit from the various bilateral in the deal. The official Gazette published is a serious move forward and will Iraq and Jordan last August trade agreements,” he said. Abu Khamseh said the Iraqi mar- a decision that established a create excellent business opportu- signed a security agreement on bor- The zone topped the agenda of ket is huge and will have a positive technical committee to review the nities to citizens of both countries,” der protection, counterterrorism a high-level bilateral December effect on the development of Jor- pricing mechanism on 95-octane he said. “Jordan and Iraq have many and intelligence capacity building. meeting in Baghdad that also tack- danian industries. gasoline every three months. The things in common and Jordan, Jordanian exports to Iraq reached led regional railroad, customs ex- “We hope with the establish- move aims to link gasoline prices which welcomed Iraqi refugees, has their highest in 2013, totalling $1.8 emptions on Jordanian exports to ment of this industrial zone, which to global oil prices. become home for many Iraqi busi- billion, but dived in 2017 to $542 Iraq and linking the two countries’ stretches 2km on each side of the Oil Ministry spokesman Hamdy nessmen and investors.” million. power grids. border, business will move a bit Abdel-Aziz said the new mecha- Security issues in Iraq have lim- “The zone will contribute posi- Jordanian trader Ahmad Abu faster and result into tangible ben- nism will take effect in April and ited Jordanian investors and busi- tively in enhancing commercial ex- Khamseh said the industrial zone efits by the end of 2019,” he said. that 92-octane and 80-octane nessmen, Dabbagh said but, he change and reconstruction projects will boost business with Iraq as an “We know that the Iraqi market is gasoline will not be affected. added, that “with the creation of in Iraq, which is a positive sign and alternative to the free trade agree- flooded with Turkish and Iranian the new zone it will be safer to do as we can see trade between the ment with Turkey, which was can- products and we need to ensure (The Associated Press) business in Iraq.” two countries had its great days and celled last year. that our products are competitive.” Jordanian trucks have been una- we hope that these days will return “Turkey was a key market to The United Nations’ Comtrade ble to enter Iraq since 2014 because and be even better,” Dabbagh said. Jordan because we used to import database on international trade of security concerns. They instead Loay Sehwail, chairman of the good quality commodities at af- stated that Jordan’s exports to Iraq Turkey resumes unload their cargo at the Karameh- Jordan Industrial Estates Corpora- fordable prices but the decision in 2017 were led by pharmaceuti- imports of Turaibil border crossing, where Ira- tion (JIEC), the entity responsible to stop the free trade agreement cal products (16% of exports), fol- qi trucks then reload it. for establishing, developing and with Ankara and place a 15-30% lowed by electrical and electronic Iranian oil Approximately 80 Jordanian managing industrial estates, said customs fee on imports will make equipment (13%), fertiliser (12%), trucks laden with various commod- his team was ready to manage the things worse for traders and con- plastics (11%) and soap, lubricants Turkey has resumed imports of ities make this switch at the border new zone. sumers alike,” he said. and waxes (10%). Paper and alu- Iranian crude oil after a 1-month crossing — the only trade route be- “JIEC has the proper tools to Jordan terminated the agree- minium constituted the rest. hiatus in November. tween Iraq and Jordan — every day. manage the zone due to its long ment, purporting that Turkey did The United States granted Prior to the border closure, more experience in this field. The zone not transfer know-how to improve Roufan Nahhas is a journalist Turkey and other countries import than 700 Jordanian trucks used to will strengthen trade exchange and national industries as agreed to on based in Jordan. waivers in early November. Turkey said it was permitted to take 3 Viewpoint million tonnes a year, equivalent to about 60,000 barrels per day (bpd), under the waiver. Turkey had reduced its imports Uncertainties mark Russia-OPEC alliance from Iran in the months prior to sanctions. Its imports fell to zero expose non-OPEC members of the extend for six months, with a riorating US-China trade relations. in November but in December the alliance to potential US sanctions. review set for April. Iran received Virtually all OPEC members, as country took delivery of two tank- OPEC members Iran and Venezuela an exemption from the reductions well as Russia, clearly want the ers carrying Iranian crude. John C.K. Daly are subject to US sanctions, which because of renewed US sanctions. highest possible price for oil but So far in January, Turkey is to re- have had noticeable negative effects A significant impetus for the OPEC members have their own eco- ceive a cargo from the Iran-owned on their economies. December meeting was the fall nomic and political problems. Ven- tanker Sinopa. ussian Energy Minis- Seeking to downplay his an- in global oil prices by more than ezuela and Iran desperately need ter Alexander Novak nouncement, Novak added: “There 20% the previous month. The revenue from expanded output, no (Reuters) floated the concept of a is a consensus that there will be no OPEC meeting convened in Vienna matter what the price. In contrast, new organisation based such organisation. That’s because despite weeks of pressure from US Saudi Arabia needs a benchmark on the OPEC+ format. it requires additional bureaucratic President Donald Trump to keep oil price of at least $80 per barrel to Import costs choke It was to include the 15 brouhaha in relation to financing crude oil prices low. balance its budget. Rmembers of OPEC and Russia and and cartel concerns with the US An important question remains: Russia’s more diversified econo- output at Libya’s it would have started its work — side.” Will OPEC+ remain a pragmatic, if my can live with oil at $40 per bar- only truck factory boosting the market — on January 1. Instead, Moscow proposed a temporary, tactical alliance between rel. The dissonance within OPEC, That date has passed and the Rus- special cooperation mechanism, OPEC and the Russian Federation or with some of its members covertly While it once turned out 5,000 sians now seem to think OPEC+ is which would allow oil producers to will it deepen into something more and overtly ramping up produc- vehicles a year, Libya’s Trucks unnecessary. convene, discuss and adopt memo- permanent? tion for maximum short-term gain, and Buses Company (TBCo) now Cooperation to stabilise the randums or joint resolutions. As for the future, many OPEC undercuts organisational solidarity. completes only eight a month — 96 market was clearly in the interest Given that Russia earned nearly participants are infamous for cheat- The solidarity is epitomised by Sau- a year — with demand mostly from of major producers. The price of oil $120 billion in additional revenue ing on quotas to generate as much di Arabia, OPEC’s leading advocate Libyan state institutions. gyrated wildly in 2018, rising to a in 2018 because of the OPEC+ pact quick cash as possible. of curbing short-term production Shuttered following 2011’s upris- 4-year high in October before drop- to cut production, the proposed What makes the situation harder for longer-term profits. ing, the factory’s reopening in ping more than $30 a barrel by the mechanism left OPEC members to predict is the administration in Accordingly, Russia, which can 2017 was a sign of hope. However, end of the year. suspicious of Russia’s intentions. Washington, which is manifestly cope with a lower barrel price, will the government’s devaluation of The swings played havoc with That said, OPEC and Russia have friendly to “big oil.” US domestic oil show unity with OPEC. Russia will Libya’s dinar to 3.9 per dollar from OPEC members’ budgets, particu- been broadly coordinating policy production has been surging due support temporary production cuts 1.3 last September drove up costs, larly Saudi Arabia, the group’s top since the end of 2016. On December to fracking and is likely to expand to bolster prices but if its economy impeding demand and production. producer. Saudi oil exports account 7, during a meeting in Vienna, the as new export pipelines become worsens this year, Russian Presi- TBCo management is to meet for almost 90% of revenue and more OPEC+ group agreed to cut produc- operational. dent Vladimir Putin may institute a with newly appointed Economy than 40% of its GDP. tion by 1.2 million barrels per day However, while potential US oil “Russia first” policy. At that point, Minister Ali Eswai to negotiate “the On December 27, Novak said an (bpd). exports may surge, they could suf- Russia may not worry too much exclusion of the company from the “official” alliance “would only cre- Under the agreement, OPEC fer price stagnation or a decline in a about the consequences for its new new exchange rate,” TBCo manager ate headaches for all concerned.” In would make two-thirds of the cut saturated global market that shows energy allies. Hisham al-Hadi Abughlayla said. an oblique reference to the effec- while Russia and other top non- signs of cooling. There may also be tiveness of US sanctions, imposed OPEC oil producers would reduce the effects of worsening US trade John C.K. Daly is a Washington- (Reuters) on Russia since 2014, Novak added production by 400,000 bpd. The relations with Mexico and Canada, based specialist on Russian and that such an arrangement would cuts were to begin January 1 and both major oil producers, and dete- post-Soviet affairs. January 13, 2019 21 Egypt Gas Egypt could compete with Russian gas exports to Europe

Amr Emam bombed numerous times. Before exports were suspended, Egypt exported approximately 250 Cairo million cubic feet of gas to Jordan every day as part of a 2003 deal. gyptian natural gas is to of- The exports covered most of Jor- ficially begin flowing to dan’s needs; however, Amman had Jordan in February for the to resort to other suppliers and E first time in seven years. other energy sources after Egypt’s Gas exports to Jordan were ex- exports stopped, costing it around pected to gradually return to pre- $6 billion, the Jordanian govern- vious levels, the Egyptian govern- ment said. ment said, as Cairo advances its Last August, Egypt and Jordan A boon to the economy. Gas tanks at the desert road of Suez city north of Cairo. (Reuters) plan to become a regional energy amended the 2003 deal to change hub. the amount of gas exported by Egypt to 150 million cubic feet of bic feet. Production from the field international markets.” Fattah al-Sisi said resuming gas In entering the gas to Jordan a day, which will cov- reached 2 billion cubic feet a day at The oil and gas sector is at the exports to Jordan represented a European market, er almost half of the needs of the the end of 2018 and should total 2.7 heart of Egypt’s economic revival “goal” for Egypt. country. billion cubic feet a day sometime plans and the rise in production Abdel Aziz said Jordan would Egyptian gas is expected Egypt started exporting gas to this year. along with exporting local gas to be the first in a list of countries, to pose competition to Jordan in September, part of a test Production from Zohr raised international markets bring Egypt including Italy, Spain and France, Russian gas. case to ensure that the pipeline total national production to 6.5 closer to becoming a regional en- that Egypt will export its natural and security around it were oper- billion cubic feet a day at the end ergy hub. gas to in the coming years. The sec- “The resumption of exports to ating correctly. of 2018. Production from other With a large number of local ond export stage, he added, would Jordan is a step on the road to send- The return of Egyptian gas to in- discoveries will also come online liquefaction and petrochemical include other European states, ing Egyptian natural gas to other ternational markets is a major eco- soon, making more promising na- plants, Egypt aims to collect gas likely in 2020. countries,” said Hamdi Abdel Aziz, nomic shift in a country that has, in tional economic prospects. from major producers in the region In entering the European mar- Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum the last two years, almost doubled “The rise in production and and apply further refinement and ket, Egyptian gas is expected to spokesman. “We are pinning a lot its production, achieving self-suffi- the resumption of exports are liquefaction processes, before ex- pose competition to Russian gas. of hope on the return of our gas to ciency and ending importation. critically important if we will at- porting it. “Our gas will be much cheaper international markets to contribute The rise in production was pro- tract foreign currency revenues An Egyptian company is to re- than [gas] coming from Russia,” to economic growth.” pelled by a series of discoveries, in- and push the economic growth ceive shipments of Israeli gas dur- Abdel Aziz said. “European coun- Natural gas exports to Jordan cluding the gigantic Zohr field un- forward,” said Egyptian energy ing the first quarter of the year, tries will find the gas pumped from stopped in 2012 when the pipeline der the Mediterranean. The Zohr expert Gamal al-Qaliubi. “Re- part of a $15 billion deal signed last Egypt less costly than the one they carrying the gas from El Arish in gas field, which was discovered in turns from the energy sector will August. import from Russia both before North Sinai to Aqaba and Israel was 2015, has reserves of 30 trillion cu- increase as we send more gas to Egyptian President Abdel and after liquefaction.” Viewpoint With increased output, Egypt set to become a regional LNG hub

gypt is poised to gas firm Delek Drilling signed a become a regional $15 billion deal with the Egyp- liquefied natural gas tian private company Dolphinus Jareer Elass (LNG) trading hub Holdings to supply 64 billion thanks to booming cubic metres of gas from Israel’s natural gas production offshore Tamar and Leviathan Efrom recent discoveries, existing fields over a 10-year period. LNG infrastructure and strategic Delek and its US partner in the agreements it is seeking with two Israeli fields, Noble Energy, eastern Mediterranean countries subsequently bought a 39% stake to import gas for processing and with Egyptian East Gas Company re-export. in the East Mediterranean Gas However, economic and techni- Company (EMG) pipeline to facili- cal challenges could delay that tate that deal. hub from being created and, The EMG pipeline had been despite having eliminated its own used to supply Israel with need for LNG imports in the last Egyptian gas. In 2012, that ar- quarter of 2018 due to surging do- rangement ended after repeated mestic gas output, Cairo’s budget attacks on the line by militants is hurting from costly imports of in the Sinai forced its closure and other fuels. EMG sued the Egyptian govern- Egyptian Oil Minister Tarek Ambitions and challenges. Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades (L) ment for damages. Egypt and el-Molla announced in September talks with Egyptian Oil Minister Tarek el-Molla (R) during a meeting Israel reportedly reached an that Cairo had received its last at the presidential palace in Nicosia. (AP) arbitration settlement in Novem- LNG shipment dedicated for do- ber, clearing a path for the EMG mestic consumption, making the pipeline to be operational again, country self-sufficient in natural Mediterranean. As impressive as agreements with several eastern even though the northern Sinai gas, an achievement expected to the Zohr field has proved to be, Mediterranean countries with continues to show instability. save the Egyptian government there is heightened interest in the goal of linking their gas fields The EMG line is being inspected approximately $2 billion annually the nearby offshore Noor field, through pipelines to Egypt’s and, if there are no technical is- and help finance a budget deficit which was discovered by Eni last coastal liquefaction plants. Egypt, sues, Israeli gas could begin flow- exacerbated by higher crude summer and could hold larger Greece and Cyprus recently ing to Egypt as early as March. prices that raised the costs of reserves than Zohr. The potential established a forum for eastern Delek Drilling CEO Yossi Abu importing fuels such as benzene, of the Noor field enticed Euro- Mediterranean gas-producing has poured cold water on that diesel and butane. Those im- pean oil giant BP and Abu Dhabi countries to capitalise on new scenario, however, suggesting in ported fuels cost Cairo as much as state fund Mubadala to buy 25% discoveries. November that Israeli gas may in- $450 million a month. and 20% stakes, respectively, Cairo signed a more spe- itially be piped to Egypt through Egypt is enjoying a natural gas from concession holder Eni in cific agreement with Cyprus in the Arab Gas pipeline that con- boom in part due to the rapid December. September to link the Cypriot nects Jordan and Egypt, with the development of its giant offshore The expected output increase Aphrodite gas field to Egyptian EMG line to be used later. Zohr gas field, discovered in 2015. from Zohr as well as higher pro- liquefaction terminals in Idku Abu said Israeli gas would begin Zohr, which began production in duction from the North Alexan- and Damietta through a proposed flowing to Egypt once Israel’s gas In its push to become January 2018, saw output expand dria field will help push Egyptian undersea pipeline, with the goal network is linked to the Arab Gas a regional LNG trading six-fold in its first nine months of natural gas production from the of processing and re-exporting the line in May, with the EMG pipe- operation, reaching 2 billion cubic current 6.6 bcfd to 7.8 bcfd in the gas to Europe and other markets. line being tapped into in Decem- hub, Cairo has been feet per day (bcfd) in Septem- 2019-20 fiscal year. Cairo could However, high gas prices make ber. Concern is that the EMG line pursuing supply and ber. The field’s operator, Italian become a net gas exporter by the it uneconomical to build the line would not have the capacity to processing energy firm Eni, anticipates the end of 2019, following a 3-year for just the Aphrodite volumes meet contracted volumes when Zohr field reaching its plateau period during which domestic gas so Cyprus would likely have to the Leviathan field becomes op- agreements with production in excess of 2.7 bcfd consumption outpaced produc- develop more fields to make an erational this year. several eastern by the end of 2019. tion. underwater pipeline viable. Zohr — with gas reserves of 30 In its push to become a regional A plan to pipe Israeli gas to Jareer Elass reports from Mediterranean trillion cubic feet — is considered LNG trading hub, Cairo has been Egypt is further along. Last Washington on energy issues for countries. the largest gas discovery in the pursuing supply and processing February, Israeli oil and natural The Arab Weekly. 22 January 13, 2019 Society The fashionable rise of Jordanian ‘influencers’

Ruba Zeidan ier to handle and alluring competi- tive contender: mobile phones. Statistics worldwide indicate a Amman steep decline in television and print media consumption in favour o, what is it that you of portable devices. Jordan has, as do for a living?” “I In- of 2017, 260,000 Instagram and 4 “ stagram! I am an influ- million Facebook users. Sencer!” answered the It might be fair to say that most slender blonde in her 20s. “I am a of the viral posts we interact with fashionista! I inspire young ladies on a daily basis are staged or at on the latest fashion trends, pro- least not reflective of the real lives vide styling tips and I am followed of the people behind them. It is by almost 40,000 people!” alarming to see an increasing num- The Amman-based “influencer” ber of young Jordanians who have is among a growing number of started to model, admire and imi- young Jordanians gaining public- tate what they see on their screens, ity through social media by posting unaware that most of the posts are their entire lives to viewers, select- actually paid, sponsored or tam- ing certain shots to share with their pered with. communities or providing advice “I am obsessed with ‘Sandra’s about places to go or things to do. account.’ I follow her meditation She is reportedly paid $2,100 just and food routine by heart! I am to show up at events, post photos sure that with my above average and use pre-designated hashtags. photography skills and passion These young people are chang- for sports, I will eventually land ing the rules of the media scene, my own personal brand and gain not only in Jordan but all over the more followers than she does,” world. said Hind, a 23-year-old Amman The new frenzy of “posting, In- resident who asked to be identified stagramming, tweeting, liking and only by her first name. hash-tagging” has gained signifi- IT university student, identified cant power. With 95 million photos as Hamza, voluntarily manages the and videos posted daily on Insta- official Facebook page of Omar, a gram, data from Influencer Mar- popular Jordanian food and travel keting Hub 2017 Study indicate, it blogger. He assures that followers is no secret that such tools are used get interesting tips and useful in- for marketing purposes, with little formation on where to go and what authenticity, value or knowledge. to eat by following Omar. A recent study in the United “Omar might not be your typi- States said Instagram users like 4.2 cal neat writer but, at 29, he is billion posts every day, with mod- well-travelled and trilingual and elling and fitness accounts topping has more than 35,000 likes on Fa- the list. The Instagram influencer cebook, though he launched the marketing spending reached $1.6 page only last year,” Hamza said. billion in 2018, Mediakix claimed. A close look at Omar’s page shows he presents his content in Changing the rules. Jordanian influencer Anood Barqawi poses while taking a selfie. (Facebook) a smooth, easy-to-understand and The new frenzy of “posting, concise way. Concise is the word Instagramming, tweeting, of generation. If you add visually content. It is the new language of out for to be invited and seen.” more engorged the accounts are, liking and hash-tagging” has appealing elements, you hit the knowledge. Labelling those young people as the more effect the persona has on gained significant power. jackpot. Mohammad Tahhan, a Jordanian “influencers” is quite overrated, changing followers’ beliefs from It is not surprising that in the digital media expert and trainer liv- Tahhan said. However, in the lack the core. However, it does affect While an increasing number of light of the declining traditional ing in Canada, said: “These social of accurate, internationally agreed their looks, purchasing behaviour, young people are leaning towards readership figures in the Arab butterflies are usually young indi- upon term that speaks to what use of language and consuming becoming “cord-cutters,” their at- World (6 minutes per year) that viduals with some sort of commu- they do, the majority of social me- habits. tention is diverting from “classic” Jordanian youth are seeking fast, nication skills, who know how and dia users find it easy to call them media channels, such as television fun, colourful, animated and, most when to take the photos, what key- “influencers.” Ruba Zeidan is an Arab Weekly and radio, to more accessible, eas- important, “likes” guaranteeing words to use and whom to reach It is doubtful that this means contributor in Jordan. Viewpoint Arab Literacy Day puts spotlight on unmet challenge

ach year on January severe crises and armed conflicts. and development went instead to below the expected results and 8, the Arab League ALECSO said about 13.5 million buying weapons. way below programmes in place Nesrine Education, Cultural Arab children failed to enroll in So, the lofty goal of eradicat- and the promises made. Romdhani and Scientific Organisa- formal educational establishments ing illiteracy ended up joining the Worse, some Arab countries are tion (ALECSO) marks because of conflicts sweeping the ranks of the other shiny slogans experiencing a serious setback Arab Literacy Day. The Arab world. that served the interests of the in this domain either because of Eobservance represents a chance to Talk about eradicating illiteracy regimes more than those of the social strife and conflict or because transcend the educational dimen- in the Arab world is intimately con- people. of ideological beliefs by powerful sions suggested by the name of the nected with history and politics in In addition to confusing priori- regimes and groups that educa- occasion and an opportunity to general and the history of the na- ties, the Arab regimes could not re- tion, and especially education for assess the political, developmental tionalist states in particular. Their solve the dilemma of what should females, is a luxury or a breach of and economic choices made by the pitfalls and slogans were character- come first, literacy programmes tradition. regimes in the region. ised more by ideology rather than or economic development. Can The success or failure of literacy Since it was adopted by the by efficiency. literacy programmes aid economic programmes in Arab countries do League of Arab States in 1970, Arab One can’t help but point to the and social development or was it not depend only on available offi- Literacy Day has become an occa- wrong political choices of some fig- the other way around and econom- cial plans and certainly not on slo- sion to generate questions related ures of Arab nationalism who had ic development would positively af- gans brandished by regional organ- to literacy and other issues. Like problems fixing the right priorities fect literacy and awareness-raising isations such as the Arab League every other commemoration, it for their people. Thus, military and programmes? but also rely on the availability of was turned into an area for debate security concerns had won over so- In the end, all Arab countries facilitating cultural factors like lit- and competition in the Arab world. cial and economic needs and funds have either fought or tried to fight eracy traditions and of hampering Decades ago, nationalist govern- that should have gone to education illiteracy but the outcome is still factors such as male conservatism, ments of newly independent Arab marriage at an early age and family countries unanimously brandished disintegration. Economic factors, the slogan of eradicating illit- including the development model eracy as a necessary step towards adopted, poverty, unemployment development and raising aware- and deteriorating living conditions, ness among citizens. The slogan also played roles. remains just a slogan and little has Arab Literacy Day is an annual been achieved. occasion to ponder this crucial Illiteracy data provided each issue. It is also a chance to put in- Arab Literacy Day by ALECSO tentions to the test and assess the indicate the gradual decline in illit- seriousness and efficiency of the eracy rates in the Arab world, from Arab world’s approach to dealing 37% in 1970 to 21%, currently. with the major challenges ahead. Those figures reflect efforts in Those challenges are growing All Arab countries the Arab world for about half a rapidly considering the political have either fought or century to bring down illiteracy events in the Arab region and big rates but should also be taken with changes sweeping the world. Even tried to fight illiteracy a grain of salt because they are the definition of illiteracy itself is but the outcome is likely to take a turn for the worse, changing. considering the miserable edu- still below the cational conditions in some Arab Catching up. Iraqi women take part in an Iraqi government’s Nesrine Romdhani is a Tunisian expected results. countries, which are dealing with literacy programme for adults in Najaf. (AFP) writer. January 13, 2019 23 Culture A Cairo social landmark where time has stopped

Ahmed Megahid Cafe Riche is more than just a cafe in the heart of Cairo. It has been the meeting place of Egyptian Cairo intelligentsia and revolutionaries, bearing witness of many signifi- rom resistance to the Brit- cant events that marked Egypt’s ish occupation at the turn modern history. of the 20th century through It was the favoured meeting F the revolution that toppled point for Egypt’s literary celebri- Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ties, such as Youssef Idriss, Na- in 2011, Cafe Riche in Cairo has guib Mahfouz and Yusuf Sibai, and played and continues to play a modern history makers, including central role in Egypt’s political and Presidents Gamal Abdel Nasser, cultural life. Anwar Sadat and Mohamed Na- Located on Talaat Harb Square guib. and near Tahrir Square, Cafe Riche Leaders of the 1919 revolution has survived more than a century against the British occupation had of twists and turns in Egypt’s polit- secret meetings in the cafe’s base- ical, economic and literary history. ment and used the cafe’s printing Founded in 1908, Cafe Riche was machine, which is still in place, to given its current name in 1914 by print political pamphlets. its French owner Henry Recine. He “Sadat was a regular visitor of sold it a short time later to Greek Cafe Riche as a junior army officer. businessman and art lover Michael He would often drop by and order Nicoapolits who added a theatre his favourite pasta-and-chicken that featured prominent artists in- dish,” Michelle said. cluding legendary Egyptian singer Ironically, Sadat ordered the clo- Umm Kulthum. sure of the cafe a short time after he became president in 1971. He could not tolerate criticism of his Cafe Riche has resisted policies by the cafe’s regulars. Photos of the cafe’s most promi- change and A witness to history. A view of the entrance to Cafe Riche in Cairo. (Twitter) modernisation for nent visitors lining the walls in- decades but the theatre clude Umm Kulthum, Mahfouz is no longer operational. and Egyptian actor Rushdy Abaza, He recalled the first time Leba- Michelle said. corner bespeak history,” Fouad among others. nese born Egyptian journalist Rose “The revolutionaries also had said. “It must be preserved for fu- “Mahfouz had a weekly liter- al-Yusuf met her soon-to-be hus- secret meetings in the basement of ture generations before it is lost Today, Cafe Riche is run by the ary forum in one of the rooms. He band, novelist Ihsan Abdel Qud- the cafe fearing Mubarak’s police- forever.” family of its first Egyptian owner and other literary figures would dous, who was the editor of Egypt’s men,” she added. In the 1990s, a court case by the Abdel Malak Mikhail Salib, who spend hours talking about literary largest dailies al-Akhbar and al-Ah- A few years ago, Cafe Riche Egyptian government against the has owned it since 1962. trends, politics and the economy,” ram. “They fell in love with each would have ceased to exist, when cafe about a public passage it occu- Things have changed around Michelle said. other at the cafe and also got mar- a businessman paid millions of pied caused a temporary closure. Cafe Riche but inside the clock Egyptian novelist Yousef al- ried there,” Qaeed said. Egyptian pounds to buy the build- Cafe Riche has resisted change and seems to have stopped. Everything Qaeed said he never felt far from Cafe Riche was at the heart of the ing where it is located. Salib staged modernisation for decades but the is the same: the paint and photos home at Cafe Riche. He has been 2011 uprising against Mubarak’s a fearless legal battle against the theatre is no longer operational. on the walls, the tables and chairs going there for years to remember regime. “The young people who demolition of the building and “Things are changing and Cairo and the layout of the furniture. “the good old days.” staged the uprising would come to won it. does not buzz with art and artists “We are doing great efforts to “I come here and look at the the cafe every morning, get their Literary critic Amany Fouad ap- as it used to in the past,” Michelle keep everything inside Cafe Riche photos on the walls and remem- free morning coffee and sandwich- pealed to authorities to have Cafe said. as is, and we are proud to have ber all my friends. They look at me es and then head to Tahrir Square Riche included in the official list of managed to preserve it,” said Sa- and I feel as if they still talk to me,” to join tens of thousands of other antiquities. “This is a place where Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian mia Michelle, Salib’s sister-in-law. Qaeed said. anti-Mubarak revolutionaries,” every part, every brick and every reporter in Cairo. Viewpoint Arab world’s unjustified neglect of African literature

hether in poetry, academics, specifically in Egypt. fiction, literary I was introduced to the treas- criticism, in- ures of African poetry and novels Azraj Omar tellectual or in Britain, not in Algeria. During philosophical my visits to Arab countries since research, theatre then, I deliberately made the effort Wor the plastic arts, African culture to thoroughly search their librar- is flourishing south of the Sahara ies and bookstores for samples of but this intellectual and spir- African poetry to no avail. itual momentum is not reaching Arab countries are deprived Maghreb or Eastern Arab countries, of the rich intellectual debate even though Africa represents a that African critics and thinkers historical depth for us. contribute to the liberation of the Unfortunately, Arab writers’ African mind from dependence unions are ignoring African writers on the former European colonial and thinkers. There are no serious powers. There is no doubt that this efforts to exchange visits by rel- debate is fertile and deep. African evant delegations from both sides intellectuals call for writing in lo- and in promoting African cultural cal African dialects and languages developments in Arab countries. and for abandoning writing in the Various ministries of culture have language of the former European turned their backs on African colonisers. cultural affairs and the cultural There are also those who say attaches of Arab country embas- that the language of the coloniser, sies in African countries have done be it Dutch, French or English, is nothing worth mentioning to estab- a neutral tool of expression and lish Arab-African cultural relations. that resorting to writing in local This reality in the Arab world languages is not incompatible with contrasts sharply with the Af- African emancipation and African rican reality in European coun- identity. tries. They, especially Britain and Not many African works. A customer browses books at a bookshop African novelist Chinua Achebe African culture is France, have dedicated radio sta- in Rabat. (AFP) is a defender of this last thesis and tions that focus mainly on African other African writers, such as nov- flourishing south of cultural life and offer listeners in elist and critic Ngugi wa Thiong’o, the Sahara but this Europe samples of creative and schools and universities. African literature and thought. sharply disagree. Wa Thiong’o said intellectual and intellectual achievements in the There is no such openness on Not even Arab scholars and so- liberating the African mind from African continent. European pub- African culture in the Maghreb. It called critics know much about the colonialism is the first step towards spiritual momentum lishing interests do not shy away is impossible to find one publisher foundations and components of severing African dependency on is not reaching from publishing African creations in North Africa or elsewhere in the African literature, with the excep- Europe. and promoting them and African Arab world that consistently and tion, perhaps, of individual efforts Maghreb or Eastern literature is often included in systematically has been concerned of the late Egyptian scholar Ali Azraj Omar is an Algerian poet, Arab countries. educational curricula in European with publishing and distributing Shalash and those of a few other writer and intellectual. 24 January 13, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Berber village of Chenini with its prominent mosque. (Antoine Lorgnier)

Off the beaten Agenda path: Chenini’s rare Cairo: Through February 14

The Cairo Art Fair IV is Egypt’s largest and most exciting con- maritime oases in temporary art exhibition hosted by the Arts-Mart Gallery, which is also the site of the gala. The fair showcases the work of more southern Tunisia than 120 Egyptian artists par- ticipating with more than 1,500 artworks. Yassine Halila ingenious irrigation networks. One would assume that dates are Manama: aplenty amid such an abundance of Through May 15 Chenini palm trees. Degla, the prized vari- ety of dates particular to southern “The Bahrain National Museum: stone’s throw from the Tunisia, does not, however, grow in A 30th anniversary retrospec- busy, industrial port city of Chenini. tive” exhibition traces the trajec- Gabes in southern Tunisia, Chenini is one of the few maritime tory of the Bahrain National Chenini is a luscious oasis oases in the world. While depending Museum and highlights major A milestones. that is practically unknown to tour- on palm trees as the cornerstone of ists. Those who venture off the beat- their ecosystem, coastal oases are en paths of Tunisia’s sandy beaches unable to produce degla dates. A view of palm trees in Chenini. (Yassine Halila) Abu Dhabi: or archaeological sites will be richly Palm trees create the microcli- January 28-30 rewarded with a serene and lei- mate necessary for the oasis to surely stay in the shade of abundant thrive. They provide the basis for variety can be often found inexpen- and transforming the farm into a The second Abu Dhabi Publish- greenery of the oasis. the floor agriculture system nec- sively sold along the side of the road zoological park and museum. ing Forum features panel discus- Tall palm trees dominate the essary for cultivating plants. The in bottles or served in glasses. Cold With the exception of Nile croco- sions, workshops and a tailored landscape in Chenini, walling off the three-floor culture system is com- palm juice is particularly effective diles, the animals on display are en- exhibition showcasing the oasis and forming date-laden col- posed of palm trees on top, fruit for quenching thirst during the hot demic to the region and include rap- advanced technologies in digital onnades that delineate agricultural trees as an intermediate layer and a summer months. tors, birds, camels, ducks and goats. publishing. This year’s edition lands. The oasis in the heart of the lower level where fodder crops and The museum also houses an exhibi- will focus on the significance of town is its star attraction. Pathways low-lying plants and vegetables are tion dedicated to oases. digital publishing and its role in allow passage to palm frond-fringed grown. A stroll through the oasis is Accommodation in Chenini can be spreading knowledge. small garden plots where a wide va- In Chenini, pomegranate chief- an opportunity to admire its tricky to find but the lack of touristic riety of crops, vegetables and fruit ly but also plum and fig trees are infrastructure is offset by the hotels Tizi Ouzou: ecosystem, which relies on During February trees are planted. grown on the intermediate level, palm orchards and and restaurants in nearby Gabes. Recently habilitated into mapped while mallow, radishes or onions are ingenious irrigation The oasis is easily accessible be- trails thanks to an EU-funded pro- commonly cultivated at the third. cause of its proximity to Gabes, The National Amazigh Film ject, the network of dirt roads pro- Henna is cultivated during years networks. which is serviced by trains, buses Festival in Tizi Ouzou, in north- vides a charming setting for lei- when water is particularly scarce, and long-distance taxis. Chenini is a central Algeria, showcases full- surely bicycle rides or promenades because mignonette trees need very On the southern outskirts of the 10-minute taxi ride from the Gabes length feature films, documen- among a variegated tapestry of yel- little water. oasis, the Natural Museum of Cheni- train station. taries, shorts and animation that low palm fronds and red pomegran- Along with the wider Gabes re- ni recently reopened after an exten- The small number of visitors make celebrate Amazigh culture in ate groves. Horse-drawn carriage gion, Chenini is renowned for the sive renovation. The museum has a Chenini a boon for those seeking an Algeria. rides are available for an even more quality of its agricultural products, peculiar history. In the 1970s, a Ger- unadulterated experience in one of memorable experience. especially pomegranates, dates, man citizen started a crocodile farm Tunisia’s hidden gems. Beirut: A stroll through the oasis is an op- mallow leaves and henna. A spe- on the museum’s current premises. February 12-March 17 portunity to admire its ecosystem, ciality of the area is legmi — palm Years later, the Chenini municipality Yassine Halila is an Arab Weekly which relies on palm orchards and juice and wine. The non-alcoholic had the idea of keeping the reptiles contributor in Tunis. Al Bustan International Festival of Music and the Performing Arts is a musical celebration in various locations in Beirut and promotes music from all over the world. The festival includes orchestral concerts, choral music, opera and dance perfor- mances.

Dubai: February 20-22

The 17th Emirates Airline Dubai Jazz Festival will take place at Dubai Media City Amphithea- tre. Local and international jazz and blues artists such as Alicia Keys, Snow Patrol and British jazz-funk band Jamiroquai are to perform at the festival.

We welcome submissions of calendar items related to cultural events of interest to travellers in the Middle East and North Africa. Please send tips to: Visitors go on a hike through the breath-taking landscape in Chenini. (Tourism Ministry) Berber village of Chenini (Tourism Ministry) [email protected]