UK £2 Issue 191, Year 4 February 3, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Sudan’s Venezuela finally forms continued and the

a government unrest Middle EastPages 5-6, 21

Page 14 Page 12 Page 13 Caid Essebsi decries hold of Ennahda on government, says could run again ► Tunisian president hopes next Arab summit will ‘unify ranks,’ sees readmission of Syria depending on consensus.

Haitham El-Zobaidi

Tunis

he private office of Tunisian President at the Palace in T the northern suburbs of Tu- nis is elegantly decorated and taste- fully furnished. Next to the door and facing the president’s desk, a wooden cabi- net serves as a pedestal for a bust of the late Tunisian President Ha- bib Bourguiba under whom Caid Essebsi had served in the 1980s as minister of foreign affairs. The stat- ue reminds visitors that the current Tunisian president is proud to be the trustworthy custodian of Bour- guiba’s legacy. Caid Essebsi’s commitment to that legacy is perhaps more perti- nent today than at any other pe- riod of ’s modern history because the country needs inspira- tion from the vision and leadership of its founding father to ensure the success of its democratic transition and consolidate its progressive and open model of society. As we sat down to talk for an exclusive interview he granted to The Arab Weekly and Al Arab, the 92-year-old president shifted his focus with ease between domestic Not mincing words. Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi talks during interview with Al Arab and The Arab Weekly. (Tunisian Presidency) politics and regional and interna- tional issues. bours to help resolve the crisis [Chahed’s] ambition and dealt with modernist mantle, the announce- jection of the notion of “presidents In his answers, he wanted to be in the oil-rich Maghreb country, him intelligently. It pushed him ment of the new party was made in for life,” Caid Essebsi kept his op- reassuring that all Tunisians are wishes “for the return of the state to form a new party that would be Bourguiba’s birthplace of Monastir. tions open regarding this year’s welcoming of the Arab summit, set in ,” although the search for its partner in power after the 2019 Regarding allegations linking elections. He said he would consid- for March in . He said he was a solution there will have to be “a elections. will the Islamist party to a clandestine er running for a second term only if confident the summit would “take Libyan-Libyan affair, without any secretly back Chahed’s candidacy organisation allegedly involved in the “interest of Tunisia” dictated it. place in the best of circumstances” external interference,” Caid Essebsi for the office of President of the illicit and violent activities, includ- Between now and elections near and expressed the hope the meet- said. Republic. This is no longer a secret ing the assassination of two leftist the end of the year, tensions are ing would help “unify Arab ranks.” He was frank in addressing is- for anyone in Tunisia,” Caid Essebsi leaders, Caid Essebsi insisted on bound to run high in Tunisia. In Regarding the readmission of sues related to Tunisia’s shifting said. the need to “ascertain whether En- many regards, the electoral season Syria in the Arab fold, Caid Essebsi political alliances less than a year The head of government’s nahda has a secret arm or not.” has already begun. As shown by said Tunisia would “stand with the before legislative and presidential spokesman, Iyad Dahmani, denied “A country like Tunisia that wants Caid Essebsi’s remarks in this inter- Arab consensus” and “adopt the elections. He described the govern- the existence of such an arrange- its revolution to be fair must verify view, the president does not seem resolutions endorsed by the Arab ment of his previous ally-turned-ri- ment. Referring to the previous if such an apparatus exists or not… to be shying away from playing League.” val Prime Minister “entente accord” struck between We do not accuse without proof,” hardball. However, the Tunisian president as “Ennahda’s government,” decry- Caid Essebsi and Ghannouchi he said. bemoaned the lack of an “Arab ing its dependence on the support in 2013, he said: “That scenario will Ennahda has denied the accusa- Dr Haitham El-Zobaidi is an Iraqi project” amid regional and global of the Islamist party. “If Ennahda not repeat itself because Chahed tions. writer based in London. attempts at shaping events in the withdrew its support, the govern- does not strike deals in secrecy”. The veteran Tunisian leader ac- He is the Executive Editor region. ment would fall,” he said. Chahed recently established a knowledged, however, that Ennah- of Al Arab Publishing Group. He called Tunisia’s relationship Caid Essebsi said he saw a cov- new political party, Tahiya Tounes, da has tried to morph into a “nor- with next door Libya “vital.” He ert deal between Chahed and En- with the support of other former mal political party” but deemed its Expanded interview, said Tunisia, which has spared no nahda President Rached Ghan- members. Compet- efforts “not sufficient.” effort along with other Arab neigh- nouchi. “Ennahda understood his ing with Caid Essebsi for Tunisia’s Although he expressed total re- reactions: Pages 2-3 After 4-year study, US military concludes was ‘only victor’ in Iraq war

Thomas Frank ests. With Iraq no longer a threat, President George W. Bush, who or- into neighbouring countries, “the 2005 “would have a ‘calming ef- Iran’s destabilising influence has dered the invasion, and other top Iraqi-Syrian border was effectively fect’ but those elections instead quickly spread to Yemen, officials, including former US Sec- erased” and Syria “plunged into a exacerbated ethnic and sectarian Washington and Syria, as well as other loca- retary of State Condoleezza Rice, vicious civil war that devolved into tensions.” tions.” defence secretaries and military a brutality only seen in the worst “Frankly, more went wrong study by US military lead- The conclusions had to some ex- advisers. conflicts of the 20th century,” the than went right,” retired US Army ers concluded that Iran tent been acknowledged previous- report states. Colonel Frank Sobchak, one of was “the only victor” in ly, particularly under US President The threat of a regional conflict the study’s co-editors, told Na- the US-led invasion and Donald Trump, who has been pub- Written over four years, the between Sunni and Shia Muslims tional Public Radio. “Now, with A study relied on 30,000 pages occupation of Iraq and that the US licly critical of the invasion in 2003 with “potentially globally destabi- Iraq severely weakened and with effort to establish democracy and and US military presence through of classified documents and lising effects is now greater than at elements of its political class as stability in the Middle East was 2011. interviews with President any time since the original schism” supporters of Iran, Iran is clearly largely a failure. However, the document carries George W. Bush and other in 632. in a much stronger situation just “An emboldened and expan- unprecedented authority because top US officials. Among failures identified in the strategically and I think we see that sionist Iran appears to be the only of its 1,500-page length and its au- study was an inability to stop Iran playing out through its expansion- victor,” the two-volume study thorship by the US Army War Col- The report criticised almost all and Syria from giving “sanctuary ism and kind of adventurism oc- concluded. “Iraq, the traditional lege, a research centre for the US aspects of the US military and dip- and support” to militants, who curring in Syria, Yemen and other regional counterbalance for Iran, Army. lomatic campaign and traces much waged attacks across Iraq that locations.” is at best emasculated and at worst Written over four years, the study of the current instability in the destabilised the country. US com- has key elements of its government relied on 30,000 pages of classified Middle East to their failures. manders mistakenly believed that Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly acting as proxies for Iranian inter- documents and interviews with As fighting spilled from Iraq Iraq’s parliamentary elections in correspondent in Washington. 2 February 3, 2019 Cover Story Caid Essebsi calls for thorough investigation of allegations of Islamist ‘secret apparatus’ ► Caid Essebsi says Arab summit will ‘take place in the best of circumstances.’

Haitham El-Zobaidi

Tunis

s we sat down and started fielding questions, it was obvious Tunisian Presi- A dent Beji Caid Essebsi was in a combative mood and would not mince his words. He was, however, patient with our line of question- ing and provided Al Arab and The Arab Weekly with his frank assess- ment of the situation at home and abroad.

The Arab League Summit

Tunisia will host the Arab League Summit in March. Caid Essebsi can- didly admitted that, as much as the summit should be a meeting of Arab reconciliation, it is also the crown- ing effort of Tunisia to reconcile with many Arab countries. The question of Syria is expected to be at the centre of discussions of the meetings. Caid Essebsi said the summit, which could help “unify Arab ranks,” will “take place in the best of circumstances.” “We do not harbour negative feel- ings towards Syria or anyone else. We stand with the Arab consensus and we will adopt the resolutions endorsed by the Arab League,” he added. Caid Essebsi said he was aware of the accumulated sensitivities be- tween Arab countries regarding dif- ferent issues. He emphasised that Historic icon. President Beji Caid Essebsi (R) receives Haitham El-Zobaidi. The bust of first Tunisian President is at the Tunisia did not want to be party top left of the background. (Tunisian Presidency) to these sensitivities. “We will not interfere in some of the sensitive issues in the Gulf region,” he said. said: “True but this is a matter of tablished and the GCC must recover Coalition, composed of dissident after election to parliament. “We have invited everyone. The time. When countries interfere, it its role and contribute to unifying members who broke up with Nidaa The National Coalition is a legis- Tunis summit will be the summit takes even longer to settle. The situ- the Arab ranks. We will work during Tounes. Support also came from lative bloc that supports the prime for all.” It remains to be seen if Syria ation is still under control since it is the summit towards that end.” Afek Tounes and Mashrouu Tounes minister in parliament. Its mem- will be part of this “all.” under UN management. parties (the latter, a splinter faction bers were previously affiliated with “Tunisia was badly affected be- controls from Nidaa Tounes). Together, they Nidaa Tounes. Libya and always Libya cause it used to have a lot of trade the government formed a majority with 130 MP’s, “This is something that should with Libya. It was also affected be- holding 60% of the total seats.” not happen again,” Caid Essebsi Caid Essebsi said he saw Libya as cause of the terrorist threat. As long Everyone in Tunisia is following Caid Essebsi said that the camp said. “All of this tips the balance in a determining factor in Tunisia’s re- as the situation remains the same, Caid Essebsi’s positions with atten- that gave legitimacy to this gov- favour of Ennahda, which is run- gional environment. terrorists, Tunisian nationals and tion, as they may be the determin- ernment — after having previously ning the government. Without En- “For Tunisia, Libya is very impor- not Libyans, will come from there. ing factor in the country’s political sought to change it — is “this new nahda, this government would not tant and even vital,” the president For example, the three major terror- equations. Nidaa Tounes, the party troika composed of Ennahda, the exist. Ennahda has its own policies, said. “We always say that Libya and ist attacks in Tunisia in 2015 origi- he founded in 2012 and which won National Coalition and Mashrouu agenda and challenges and is now Tunisia are one people in two coun- nated from Libya.” the 2014 legislative elections, is fac- Tounes.” influencing the political scene.” tries. We have special historical re- Caid Essebsi said many foreign ing challenges and divisions that He asserted that there is a new lations. There were adverse effects parties were intervening in the Arab have practically reduced it to third political reality in Tunisia and this “Secret apparatus” on Tunisia when the state collapsed region. “It is true that there is a place in terms of the number of reality is characterised essentially in Libya. Turkish role, as well as roles played members of parliament. by Ennahda’s dominance over the A new security aspect that has “We, in Tunisia, wish for the re- by some Arab countries in addition Holding the lead among parlia- executive branch. shaken the political scene and is turn of the state in Libya and we to the Europeans,” he said. mentary blocs is the Islamist En- “The Tunisian Constitution stip- causing great concern for Tunisians are working towards that but that He also said the position of the nahda Movement. Thanks to its ulates that the executive branch has is the issue of Ennahda’s alleged has to be a Libyan-Libyan affair, United States was intimately linked internal discipline and because of two heads: the President of the Re- “secret apparatus.” without any external interference to Washington’s relationship with the splintering of Nidaa Tounes, the public and the Prime Minister, each This alleged clandestine organi- because such interference has com- Israel. “The US is a superpower,” Islamist party has the upper hand having his own prerogatives. This is sation has been described by some plicated the situation. he said, “and it interferes in eve- in parliament even if it had lost the a negative aspect that needs to be as a separate intelligence service “We have led a tripartite initiative rything but, if America does not legislative and presidential elec- modified,” he said. at the service of the international with and in order to abandon Israel and does not take a tions in 2014. “However, if the president does Organisation. ensure that. The UN envoy is also neutral stance, the situation will re- Statistics indicate that there are not endorse the government or if he doing his best but all of this was not main as it is.” 216 political parties in Tunisia, is not consulted about it, then the enough and the situation is still un- The Tunisian president said he many of them are the result of in- executive branch will have only one stable.” was aware of Russia’s role in the ternal party splits, most notably is head: the prime minister. This is Caid Essebsi added: “I say to Eu- region. He said “today’s world is no the case of Nidaa Tounes whose lat- the reality today and it reflects En- ropeans: ‘Let the Libyans find a so- longer split like it used to be dur- est splinter faction has constituted nahda’s dominance over the politi- lution by themselves with the help ing the Cold War and Russia has its own party, Tahya Tounes (“Long cal scene.” of the .’” become a major actor. Today, the Live Tunisia”), led by Tunisian Caid Essebsi said he regretted However, when it was pointed United States and the West are co- Prime Minister Youssef Chahed. that, contrary to what was required out how the roles of politicians and operating with Russia to resolve the However, Caid Essebsi does not by the constitution, he was not con- militias are entangled in Libya, he region’s problems.” mince words when it comes to de- sulted about the makeup of the last Asked about the effect of projects scribing what’s happening in Tuni- government formed by Chahed. pursued by regional powers, such sia: “Ennahda controls the political Asked what has changed since he as Iran and , Caid Essebsi scene” in Tunisia. said, two years ago, that Ennahda said: “We had hoped that there “Most of the participants in the was a political entity with a place would be an Arab project but the Carthage Document dialogue, and a role to play in the country’s Gulf crisis affected the Arab world which included main political political scene, Caid Essebsi an- and its balances. This is why we do and social actors, demanded that swered: “This is now a fact because not want to take a position that op- the government and its head be Ennahda was elected and it is the poses or supports one party at the changed but Ennahda Movement people who hold the key to sover- expense of the other. refused,” he said. eign rule. “We believe that it is in our inter- “Today, the equation has est that relations be re-established. A new troika led by Ennahda changed. The National Coalition The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) changed the balance. Most of the dif- is the most important achievement In Caid Essebsi’s assessment: ferent components of the coalition in the region and we were proud of “Ennahda is the number one party were originally elected on the basis it. We had the advantage of prec- and holds the lead in the People’s of their affiliation to Nidaa Tounes edence in the Maghreb but our pro- Assembly with 68 members. They and then they changed course and ject stalled and we had rejoiced in all, without exception, voted for partook in what we can call “parlia- the birth of the GCC but the recent the new government. Other par- mentary tourism.” crisis in the Gulf has unsettled the ties also voted for the new gov- Caid Essebsi was referring to MPs situation. Relations must be re-es- ernment, including the National changing their political affiliation February 3, 2019 3 Cover Story Caid Essebsi Interview Caid Essebsi calls for thorough investigation of allegations of Islamist ‘secret apparatus’ ► Foreign interference only delays settlement of Libya crisis.

Others say it is Ennahda’s security assassinations or not. We need to ty after independence. nouchi. When he gets in touch with that I must present myself as a can- arm endowed with military and do that despite the wish of certain “On the 26th of January 1978, me, I respond as I would with any- didate for the elections even if the intelligence capabilities. Others re- parties to cover up the issue in order there was a general strike in the body else.” constitution allows me to run for a duce it to a tool for recruiting jihad- to ensure Ennahda’s support during country that was met with violence, second term. I have the liberty to ists in Tunisia and sending them to next elections.” arrests and killings and national Caveats to presidential exercise this right or not and I as- various battlefields, including Syria, The topic of political assassina- unity fell apart,” Caid Essebsi said. candidacy sure you that I will exercise it only Iraq and Libya. tions is a complex and sensitive is- “This is what we want to avoid to- for the benefit of Tunisia. In Tunisia, rumours have it that sue in Tunisia but this topic is no day. We have warned the involved The political polarisation in Tuni- “I’m not in favour of the idea of hundreds — some even speak of less important than knowing the ex- parties that we have had a bad expe- sia is predictable in view of the up- presidents for life. I am against it. It thousands — of documents con- act nature of this “secret apparatus” rience in the past and that we must coming elections. Caid Essebsi said is not my ambition to remain presi- cerning the “secret apparatus” have that has recruited jihadists and sent engage in dialogue whether we like that “the constitutional deadlines dent for life.” been seized and that the Tunisian them to join jihadist groups abroad. it or not. As long as we remain patri- must be respected. This is what we The matter, however, seems at security services have briefed Caid Caid Essebsi said he was keen on ots, we can reach a common ground did in the municipal elections de- least in part to depend on the inter- Essebsi about the information avail- getting to the bottom of the matter. but we have not yet reached the de- spite many reservations and politi- nal dynamics of Nidaa Tounes. Caid able to them and that the informa- sired level of discourse.” cal sensitivities.” Essebsi did not hesitate to highlight tion could be revealed soon. The Tunisian President So, is the UGTT a future political Caid Essebsi noted that “the up- this connection. courts have started investigating Beji Caid Essebsi party in the making or is it just a coming elections face some ob- “It is true that I was invited to the case. force that lends its weight to other stacles, including the fact that the nominate myself, especially by “From my position as president “If the country’s interest political parties? makeup of the commission oversee- Nidaa Tounes, the party that I of the republic and regardless of requires my presence, then I Caid Essebsi said there were ing the elections is not complete.” formed but had to leave since I be- my personal affiliations, I support will think about running.” many reasons why the unions could In Tunisia, it is not the Ministry of came President of the Republic,” he transparency,” Caid Essebsi said. turn into a political party. In other Interior that organises the elections said. “Some Nidaa members came “This transparency requires that if “We need to check that out,” Caid words, it stands as the one force in but an independent body. The Elec- to see me and I told them I would there are details backed by docu- Essebsi said. “If I were in Ennahda’s the country likely to engage a show- tions Authority must replace some not respond to their appeals for mented evidence, we will not fail shoes, I would have made sure to down with both Ennahda and the of its members and its chairman has now. Once you organise a new party to reveal them for the sake of safe- demonstrate that this is not true. government but, where is Nidaa resigned. congress and when you inject new guarding the transition phase that In any case, we do not hold hostile Tounes in all of this? “I think that all the party blocs blood in Nidaa Tounes, then I will we are currently in.” or enthusiastic positions towards Caid Essebsi explained: “Real- within the assembly have agreed see.” “We must make certain whether this or that. We are only seeking the istically, Nidaa Tounes has indeed on a replacement list. Still, the list Ennahda has a secret arm or not,” truth because that would be benefi- regressed. Tunisians are drawn to needs to be ratified by the general Caid Essebsi said that the he added. “Ennahda denies its ex- cial to all.” power, politicians and citizens alike assembly of the parliament and by istence but many political observ- Ennahda, however, is part of the but the real power, according to the the president. If that happens with- camp that gave legitimacy to ers and lawyers following up on current government and is its major constitution, lies in the hands of the in reasonable dates, the elections Chahed’s government is the martyrs’ assassination cases say supporter. The president sees the prime minister and not those of the can be held within their due dates. I “this new troika composed that it does exist. A country like Tu- Chahed government as “Ennahda’s president of the republic. The prime am keen on that,” Caid Essebsi said. of Ennahda, the National nisia that wants its revolution to be government,” noting that 60% of minister now receives great backing On January 30, parliament picked Coalition and Mashrouu fair must verify if such an appara- the deputies (130 out of 217 votes), from Ennahda.” a new president for the independ- Tounes.” tus exists or not. We do not accuse among them Ennahda and other Contrary to the widespread no- ent electoral commission and filled without proof.” members of the new “troika,” had tion that the tense relationship be- three of vacant spots on its board. Caid Essebsi, however, keeps his The Tunisian president was refer- cast an easy vote for it. tween Nidaa Tounes and Chahed is The Tunisian president, who had options open as to the possibility of ring to the 2013 political assassina- “That’s why it is Ennahda’s gov- due to an ongoing political disagree- to leave Nidaa Tounes to devote his running for a second term. “The day tions of and Moham- ernment,” he said. “If Ennahda ment, Caid Essebsi said the matter efforts to his duties as president, is I decide to run or not,” he said, “my ed Brahmi in circumstances that withdraws its support, the govern- was instead related to Chahed’s de- set to play a pivotal role in the forth- real motivation will be Tunisia’s remain unclear. There have been al- ment would fall.” sire to remain in power. coming elections. He said he was interest. If the interest of Tunisia legations made by a leftist coalition Because of this reality, Tunisian “Since Chahed wanted to stay in optimistic that “the elections will requires someone else that we can that the so-called secret apparatus analysts say keeping Chahed in his power, he said that he had a falling fix matters,” provided Tunisians help, then so be it. If the country’s was linked to the assassinations. position as prime minister depends out with Nidaa Tounes but I don’t vote in large numbers. interest requires my presence, then Caid Essebsi added: “Talk about on Ennahda’s position towards him, think this is the root of his prob- “God willing, there will be a re- I will think about running. I have the international connections of even if, as is the case now, the mem- lem,” Caid Essebsi said. “Ennahda awakening. I will call on all Tuni- nothing personally that would pre- Ennahda movement is true insofar bers of government with declared understood his ambition and dealt sians to participate massively in the vent me from doing so but it is the that Ennahda was part of the Mus- affiliation in Ennahda are a minority with him intelligently. It pushed elections and choose whom they public good that will decide.” lim Brotherhood. But, we do not in the current cabinet. him to form a new party that would want,” he said. At the end of our meeting, I asked deny that Ennahda took steps to be its partner in power after the “Tunisians are aware and as- the president for a photo with my morph into a normal political party. Tunisian General 2019 elections. [Ennahda President] sume their responsibility in exercis- portable phone. He stood next to This effort, however, is not suffi- Labour Union, more than just Rached Ghannouchi will secretly ing their right to vote. When I was Bourguiba’s bust and smiled. We cient. a labour force back Chahed’s candidacy for the of- running for president, I had a clear took the picture and I left his office. “I attended the opening session fice of president of the republic. choice: It was either me or Ennah- Off the corridor that leads to the of Ennahda’s last general congress The Tunisian General Labour Un- This is no longer a secret for anyone da. Today, I can no longer do the exit, a large reception was barely to encourage its transition to a real ion (UGTT) is the major force in the in Tunisia.” same. I will, however, invite voters starting where I was able to distin- political party but it became clear country locking horns with the gov- Does this mean that Caid Essebsi to choose whom they consider the guish a large number of Tunisian that this effort was not sufficient be- ernment and Ennahda. The UGTT holds views that are personally hos- most competent.” politicians, ministers and a num- cause it was solely based on the idea has become a political force with a tile to Ghannouchi? But will Caid Essebsi run for pres- ber of foreign dignitaries mingling. of separating political activity from trade union face. Caid Essebsi not- “I’m not opposed to Ghannouchi,” ident during the coming elections? No doubt, they were there for some preaching and religious activity and ed this aspect but did not show any he clarified. “My relationship with Many Tunisians would like to ceremony to be attended by the this is not possible and not what is reservations about it. him is like with any other Tunisian. see Caid Essebsi run for a second president. required. He said: “The Tunisian General We had excellent relations and I re- term because he remains a political The crowd and the nature of the “In any case, what is for certain Labour Union has always been, spect him. I think that Ennahda par- safety valve for a country in the first audience reminded me that Tunisia now is that we need to ascertain since its foundation, a nationalist ty members have the right to be part phase of the democratic transition. expected a lot from its president, first whether this secret arm exists organisation that does not solely of political life in Tunisia because Caid Essebsi knows that but who also will be the focus of atten- or not, for the sake of safeguarding advocate for workers.” they had lived through persecution notes: “No one is able to serve in all tion of the entire region during the stability and then check whether He recalled, however, the rift be- and imprisonment but I don’t have time and in every place. I have done Arab League Summit in a few weeks this secret arm had a hand in the tween the UGTT and the ruling par- a particular relationship with Ghan- my duty but that does not mean in Tunis. Reactions to the interview

Lamine Ghanmi Rafik Abdessalem, the head believed in the constitution, of Ennahda’s foreign relations he would have concluded that department, said: “We are not in decisions about the building of Tunis a dispute with the head of state Tunisia and its future prospects and are not in a row with any and choices are not taken at eacting to Tunisian Pres- other party. The head of state but at the seat ident Beji Caid Essebsi’s might have a qualm about En- of the government power in the interview after the pub- nahda’s refusal to oust Chahed Kasbah,” in reference to preroga- R lication of its ver- but we have a stand on this that tives granted to the prime minis- sion in the daily Al Arab on Janu- is different than his.” ter by the constitution adopted ary 29, government spokesman “We are not siding with in 2014. Iyad Dahmani said: “I want to Chahed and against Hafedh The is reassure those who are worried (Caid Essebsi, the son of the in the northern suburbs of Shifting about the repeat of the scenario president and Nidaa Tounes ex- Carthage while the prime minis- balance. of the Paris accord of 2013. That ecutive director) but we agree ter’s office is in the Kasbah dis- Tunisian scenario will not be repeated be- with Chahed on the principle trict of Tunis. Prime Minister cause [Prime Minister Youssef] of government’s stability. Our “It appears that the president Youssef Chahed does not strike deals in vision is based on the country’s has his mind fixated on the old Chahed (R) secrecy.” need for stability amid an un- constitution to believe that the attends a Dahmani was referring to the settled security situation and presidency rules the country plenary session “entente accord” reached that a fragile economic climate,” he from Carthage,” added Ben Sa- at the Tunisian year between Caid Essebsi and added. lem. parliament Ennahda Movement President Ennahda parliament member with his Rached Ghannouchi. That agree- Mohamed Ben Salem said:” If Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab government ment was cancelled last May. President Beji Caid Essebsi had Weekly correspondent in Tunis. formation. (AFP) 4 February 3, 2019 News & Analysis Maghreb Unconventional presidential candidates shock Algeria’s political establishment

Lamine Ghanmi plication forms, Azeira pledged to fight for the interests of the poor. “I have no education level. I have Tunis indirect experience in political ac- tivity,” she said. “My platform is ozens of Algerian presi- the protection of the people and dential hopefuls have the country. Nothing beyond that declared their candidacy, interests me. I’m close to the poor.” D possibly setting up a hotly The only politician from the contested election in April. country’s pro-democracy opposi- Joining the field were many un- tion to declare his candidacy was conventional candidates, includ- former General Ali Ghediri. ing farmers, construction workers, Former Algerian Prime Minister journalists and clerks, a dramatic Ali Benflis, another leading oppo- shift in a country that has not seen sition figure, expressed an inten- a change of leadership since 1999. tion to run but has not confirmed his candidacy amid uncertainty The large number of over Bouteflika’s future. non-traditional Benflis and other opposition leaders say their campaigns would candidates was amusing be a lost cause if Bouteflika stands to the public but a source for re-election. of concern for Algeria’s Bouteflika, 81, has not an- political establishment. nounced whether he will run. He is widely popular throughout the “An obsession to replace Presi- country but his frail health has dent has raised questions over his fitness seized ordinary people,” comment- to serve. He was elected president ed Algeria’s main daily newspaper in 1999 and won re-election three El Khabar on January 31 after more times but now is rarely seen in than 100 candidates filed appropri- public. ate paperwork. “Small merchants, While Algerian election law craftsmen and unemployed people guarantees all citizens the right are joining leaders of small parties to run for president, their candi- to compete for the elections.” dacies must meet stringent re- Nationalist theme. Algerian city employees install national flags and a poster of President Abdelaziz Among them is bricklayer Am- quirements to be approved by the Bouteflika on a street in Algiers. (Reuters) mar Moula, who pledged to “turn constitutional court. They must Algeria into a more developed collect at least 75,000 signatures country, more than the United in at least 25 of the country’s 48 political writer Madjid Makedhi. vive the prestige of the presidency sociological cases to jump on the States” if elected president. provinces, meaning that many of “Their strange declarations on tel- from the aspiration to the election election arena. Also in the mix is clerk Rabah the announced candidacies are evision make watchers laugh. Peo- of the candidate,” he added. “The blame goes first for the tel- Bencherif, who lost a race for par- unlikely to move forward. ple on the internet watch their vid- Algerian Interior Minister evision channels that give (a plat- liament in 1992 on a platform to Analysts said the large number eos in the hundreds of thousands.” Noureddine Bedoui warned that form to) these funny candidates. turn the country’s desert region of non-traditional candidates was Political scientist Mohamed Tai- the trend points to “political ma- This phenomenon belittles first into a “new California” by digging amusing to the public but a source bi argued that the “orchestrated nipulation,” without elaborating. the elections and then the presi- a water channel through the Medi- of concern for Algeria’s political es- carnival promoted by television Sociologist Nacer Djabi said: dency but the true responsibility terranean Sea. tablishment. channels is becoming wearisome “The candidacy to presidency is for this phenomenon falls on the Housewife Nassira Azira was the “The unconventional candidates and it is against political ethics.” a right guaranteed to all the Alge- Algerian political regime, which first female presidential candidate. are in huge number this time. Even “It is a shock… We must preserve rians but lawmakers should have has not produced in number and Travelling 60km from her home- the parliamentary elections did and maintain the image of Algeria thought about a legal filter to stop quality a political elite able to help town of Jubaiha to complete ap- not experience such a craze,” said and its institutions. It is time to re- these curious psychological and society.” Haftar achieves major breakthrough in Libya’s south

Michel Cousins he has over eastern Libya was ham- These included remitting unpaid pered by the lack of manpower and salaries of some PFG personnel, re- equipment as well as the region’s opening Sabha airport and deliver- Tunis tribal and ethnic rivalries. Howev- ing of fuel and cash to Sabha. How- er, those rivalries and the general ever, Sarraj was not able to fulfil his n a major military and politi- turmoil in the region have played side of the bargain. Even National cal shift — possibly the most into his hands. Oil Company Chairman Mustafa important in southern Libya in Public desperation has built a Sanalla, who is supposed to be on I more than two years — Sabha, desire for law, order and normal- his side, refused to back him. the region’s main city, is firmly in ity, giving birth to the Fezzan Rage Sanalla said Sarraj had surren- the hands of Libyan Field-Marshal Movement. The LNA has taken ad- dered to blackmailers. The field Khalifa Haftar’s Libya National vantage of this, presenting itself would only reopen when a new Army (LNA) and tribes and other the only liberator available. security force took it over, he in- towns across the region have come sisted. out in support of him. In Sabha, various small militias Haftar’s forces are poised to take Haftar is opposed to any were lining up behind a local pro- control of the Sharara oilfield — the reconciliation with the Haftar commander, Colonel Mas- country’s largest — in south-west- Qaddafi family, soud Jedi al-Slimani. ern Libya and only the Tebu-con- specifically Muammar However, with LNA forces and trolled deep south remains firmly Qaddafi’s son Saif allies heading towards Sabha beyond his control. al-, and this does and LNA-backed units in the city Haftar has been planning for not go down well with strengthened, the Tebu forces that months to establish control over had been the main opposition to the Greens, who have Pressing on. Members of the Libyan National Army (LNA) special what is Libya’s most chaotic, most the LNA, in a deal with an LNA unit forces attend a graduation ceremony in Benghazi. (AFP) dangerous, most divided and most strong support in the at Tamanhent, agreed to hand over deprived region. In its lawless en- south. their positions and leave. A Tebu vironment, militants from the Is- source said the Tebus realised that to send its troops to the south, Haf- with the new state of affairs. So, lamic State (ISIS), al-Qaeda in the Developments, including the they would lose any fight. tar condemned him saying Mishri too, are many Qaddafi regime sym- Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram forced closure of the Sharara oil- Since then, Sarraj’s rival in the should have been among the first pathisers. plus opposition fighters from Chad, field in December by Fezzan Rage east, the Beida-based government to support the LNA in liberating Haftar is opposed to any recon- Mali and Sudan have used the area and the local Petroleum Facilities of Abdullah Thinni, has moved Sabha and one of the first to visit ciliation with the Qaddafi family, as a haven. Guard (PFG) and the pursuit against quickly to assert its role in southern but he had done the exact opposite. specifically Muammar Qaddafi’s For ordinary Libyans there, life those responsible for the Decem- Libya. Led by its interior minister, a There were reports that Haftar son Saif al-Islam, and this does not has been miserable, with short- ber 27 attack on a military camp team flew into the Sabha airport on had approved LNA forces to secure go down well with the Greens, who ages of petrol, cooking gas, cash at Traghen 125km south of Sabha, January 28. It also delivered nearly Sharara. If that happens, along have strong support in the south. in banks, bread and many other changed the region’s dynamics. $60 million in cash for distribution with control of the neighbouring Even more important is money commodities. There is also ram- The chase was considered a suc- to banks and 160,000 bags of flour El-Feel field, which depends on and supplies. The eastern govern- pant crime, especially kidnappings cess for the LNA. Although they did for bakeries in Sabha and Brak al- Sharara for its electricity supply, ment has moved to back the LNA’s by Chadian mercenaries and other not find the suspects, they freed 22 Shati. Haftar would control more than arrival by sending cash and flour criminals. hostages originally seized by ISIS. Able to provide not just law, or- 90% of Libya’s oil and gas fields. but if this turns out to be a one-off The LNA has held strategic loca- The Sharara closure was a defeat der and stability but also money This would increase his political effort and there is no financial sup- tions in the south, such as Taman- for the Tripoli-based government of and food, the Haftar bandwagon status enormously, especially in port for the southern municipali- hent Airbase near Sabha and, fur- Fayez al-Sarraj. He travelled to Sha- has gathered support from tribal the international community. ties and for public services, people ther north, Brak al-Shati Airbase, rara on December 19 to negotiate a figures and municipal leaders. That, however, is not necessarily will again turn to Sarraj’s Govern- for more than two years but they deal under which the oilfield would When the head of the Tripoli- a permanent situation. The Tebus ment of National Accord. were islands of control. return to government control and based State Council Khalid al- are divided: some are reluctantly Haftar’s hopes of establishing he would meet the demands of Mishri, a foe of Haftar and the LNA, supporting Haftar but others are Michel Cousins is a contributor to the same grip over the south that those who closed the facility. called on the Presidential Council opposed. All are far from happy The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. February 3, 2019 5 News & Analysis Egypt Egypt, France wrangle over human rights but economic, security interests dwarf concerns

Amr Emam human rights record, saying that, while he opposed Egypt’s jailing of bloggers and activists, “I respect Cairo the sovereignty of Egypt.” “I never underestimate the chal- lenges facing Egypt. I see huge ef- uman rights were a divi- forts to establish respect for all sive issue in talks between creeds and religions,” Macron add- Egyptian President Abdel ed. H Fattah al-Sisi and French Despite headlines focusing on President , who human rights, Egypt and France made his first visit to Egypt in late deepened strategic, security and January. economic interests, observers said. The gap between the two leaders “Egypt and France face the same apparently emanated from differ- political and security threats,” said ent priorities. Macron talked about Akram Badr Eddine, a political the freedoms bloggers, writers, science professor at Cairo Univer- journalists and political activists sity. “They coordinate on the fight should be having. Sisi stressed that against in the region.” the priority was to save Egypt from Libya, which shares an extended terrorism, poverty and religious ex- border with Egypt, is at the cen- tremism. tre of this coordination. Egypt has Sisi said he did not want the been harmed by the unrest in Libya. French to apply their European France is seeking political reconcili- standards to Egypt. ation between warring factions in “The rights to life, security and the North African country. development, including the obtain- The Egyptian presidency con- ment of food, health care, educa- firmed that Sisi discussed Libya, tion and appropriate housing are terrorism and illegal immigration ones Egypt gives priority to,” Sisi with Macron. said at a media briefing January 28. Egypt’s desire to modernise its military and diversify armaments has turned it into a major buyer of The administrative French weaponry. Cairo purchased capital is one of several Strategic interests. French President Emmanuel Macron (L) meets with his Egyptian counterpart billions of dollars of French arms, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at the presidential palace in Cairo, January 28. (AFP) areas Egypt wants to including 24 Rafale fighter jets, two attract French financial Mistral class helicopter carriers and interest. frigates, in the last four years. city on the outskirts of Cairo that is exceed $5.7 billion and 160 French of understanding worth $1.4 billion The two countries agreed to the expected to become Egypt’s centre companies operate in the country. to begin a strategic partnership by Sisi said Egypt built thousands joint manufacture of corvettes in of government and finance. He also Trade volume between Egypt and 2023 with the French Development of flats for the most impoverished Alexandria, Egypt, part of an ear- met with Coptic Pope Tawadros II France reached $2.3 billion last Agency. Egyptians, had prioritised screen- lier transfer technology agreement. and Grand Imam of al-Azhar Sheikh year. Apart from being a huge market ing and treatment of hepatitis C for Cairo is seeking to purchase anoth- Ahmed al-Tayeb. An investment forum was organ- and an important investment mag- millions of people and initiated na- er 12 fighter jets from France, local Macron announced an interfaith ised on January 28 with around 40 net, Egypt is economically impor- tionwide development projects to media reported, although there was conference would be hosted by Par- deals, including memorandums of tant to France because it will take create jobs. no official announcement of such is but did not specify a date. “I am understanding, declarations of in- over the presidency of the African He said the birth rate in Egypt discussions during Macron’s visit. interested to hear from you about tent and contracts, signed before Union in February, economists said. stands at 2.5 million a year and 1 Before arriving in Cairo, Macron your concerns and fears,” Macron more than 300 French company “Egypt can be an important gate- million new graduates enter the job visited the ancient Abu Simbel told Tawadros. “Europe is going representatives and a host of Egyp- way for France into the African con- market each year. “Egyptians need temples in Aswan to mark 55 years through a big moral crisis. I believe tian and French officials. tinent,” said Yumn al-Hamaqi, an schools, hospitals, flats, roads and since the relocation of the temples, that crisis can be resolved by a dia- Sisi and Macron earlier attended economics professor at Cairo Uni- jobs,” Sisi said. “I want somebody an event that preceded construc- logue among religions.” the signing of several agreements versity. “Egypt is also badly in need to tell me how I can deal with all tion of the Aswan High Dam on the The administrative capital is and memorandums of understand- of French investments.” this.” Nile River. one of several areas Egypt wants ing in transportation, health care, Macron sought to pursue a mid- Macron toured the new admin- to attract French financial inter- culture, education and youth. Amr Emam is a Cairo-based dle line in his criticism of Egypt’s istrative capital, a sprawling new est. French investments in Egypt Egypt also signed a memorandum contributor to The Arab Weekly. Scepticism abounds over Egypt-Libya border wall

Ahmed Megahid ditional troops and armoured vehi- Scepticism is high, however, over cles. whether the wall can have a posi- Work started on the wall January tive effect on security in Egypt and Cairo 20, the security directorate of the Libya. Musaid border crossing said. “One of the reasons this is true is here is uncertainty in Egypt The wall is the latest bid by Libyan that the joint border between Egypt and Libya over whether a authorities to turn the border with and Libya is more than 1,200km border wall under construc- Egypt into a source of security, in- long,” said Samir Ghattas, a mem- T tion by the eastern Libya stead of one for threats. ber of the Egyptian parliament and government will effectively curb in- The Egyptian-Libyan border de- president of Egyptian think-tank filtration by militants and the smug- veloped into a hotspot for smug- Middle East Forum for Strategic gling of arms. gling when Libya descended into Studies. “The border area is also far “Such a wall cannot succeed in chaos after the 2011 uprising against from easy to control.” preventing either the infiltration of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi. The Egypt-Libya border can be terrorists or the smuggling of arms Qaddafi’s arms stockpiles, which divided into the northern 265km between the two countries,” said initially were taken by militias fight- stretch, which includes Salloum and Libyan activist Alia al-Ubaidi. “The ing his regime, ended up in the Musaid and which is the most heav- two countries need to utilise mod- hands of militant groups active in ily defended, and a 785km stretch ern border control technologies and Libya, including the Islamic State where rugged terrain forms a natu- stop depending on traditional meas- (ISIS), which also has a branch in ral barrier. ures.” Egypt’s Sinai. Securing the border with Libya is Egyptian authorities say most a daunting mission for Egypt at the Another useless wall? Sudanese workers rest as they wait for Securing the border with of the arms used by ISIS against military and financial levels, espe- Egyptian visas next to the Libyan-Egyptian border crossing in (Reuters) Libya is a daunting Egyptian forces in Sinai are from cially with the lack of a fully func- Musaid. mission for Egypt at the Libya. Cairo has also said that many tioning state in Libya. military and financial militants have sneaked across the Egyptian rapid reaction units are At a briefing January 27 follow- Egyptian security and military border from Libya to join the fight deployed in the Western Desert ing talks with French President Em- called for Cairo to follow Algeria’s levels, especially with the in Egypt. However, the border has to foil attempts to smuggle arms manuel Macron in Cairo, Egyptian example and erect additional border lack of a fully functioning lately become an increasing route or militants into Egypt. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said walls and fences along the Egyptian- state in Libya. for Islamists fleeing into Libya to es- fighter jets have destroyed hun- militants had arrived in Libya from Libyan border. However, as with US A Libyan contracting company cape from Egyptian security forces, dreds of vehicles carrying arms and every part of the world to harm President Donald Trump’s contro- was commissioned by the eastern security analysts said. explosives as they tried to drive into neighbouring countries. “We are se- versial border wall with Mexico, the Libyan government to build the wall Miloud Jawad, a senior officer at Egyptian territory. curing a border that stretches over question of financing remains and along the border with Egypt, aug- the eastern Libya Interior Ministry, In July 2017, Egypt opened the 1,200km from a large number of ter- many Egyptians are calling for Libya menting the Musaid border cross- on January 21 told private Libyan TV Middle East’s largest military base rorist elements that are assembled to finance construction of a wall. ing. Channel 2018 that the wall would near the border with Libya. In addi- in Libya,” Sisi said. “This will, however, be far from One of the major border crossings help Libyan and Egyptian authori- tion to a huge training ground and Other neighbours of Libya have easy,” said retired Egyptian Army with Egypt, Musaid is 150km east of ties control the border. facilities for Egyptian, Arab and Af- also sought to find ways to shield General Talaat Musalam. “A border the Libyan port city of Tobruk and The barrier wall starts at the Mu- rican militaries, the Mohamed Na- themselves from militants based wall will be far from effective so 225km west of the Egyptian resort said border crossing and is planned guib Military Base is also designed in Libya. In August 2016, Algeria long as there is no security control town of Marsa Matrouh. It is the to be 1km long and 3 metres tall, a to bring together enough Egyptian announced the construction of a on both sides of the border.” Libyan side of the Salloum border statement carried by the Musaid troops to allow rapid deployment 350km-long, 3-metre-tall wall along crossing, which Cairo has reinforced border crossing’s directorate on Fa- near the border in the event of emer- the border with Libya to better con- Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian significantly in recent years with ad- cebook said. gency. trol the area. reporter in Cairo. 6 February 3, 2019 Opinion

Editorial Security threats in the region

ven if their views conflict to a large extent with those of US President Donald Trump, leaders of the American intelli- gence community have highlighted the continuing perils in the Middle East. Even if he used strong language in his Ereaction to intelligence chiefs, Trump expressed concerns that are shared by many, including the US public, regarding Iran. An AP-NORC poll suggested bipartisan concern with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, involving 51% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans. US public opinion seems unconvinced by ’s protesta- tions and arguments advanced by American advocates of accommodation with the Iranian regime. On the other hand, it is important that US intelligence chiefs are expressing stances that look at security threats in the Middle East beyond rationale provided by the White House for with- drawing US troops from Syria. US National Intelligence Director Dan Coats described the Islamic State (ISIS) threat in Syria and Iraq as evolving and not going away. “While ISIS is nearing territorial defeat in Iraq and Syria, the group has returned to its guerrilla warfare roots while continuing to plot attacks and direct its supporters worldwide. ISIS is intent on resurging and still commands thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria,” Coats said. There is also the al-Qaeda-linked threat. Although it has formally claimed to have cut its affiliation with al-Qaeda, the extremist group © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham includes many fighters from the terrorist organisation. It controls about 5% of Syrian territory. Whether they are acting on behalf of ISIS, The , 40 years on al-Qaeda or more obscure groups, organised extremists or lone wolves continue to strike everywhere, be it in the Philippines, or Khairallah Khairallah elsewhere. A report by the African Union Commis- sion noted 614 terrorism-related deaths recorded Iran today is good at meting death and destruction and not good at in Africa from January 1-15. offering models even remotely connected to the culture of life. Concern about the threat of extremism is not subsiding among US intelligence experts or public opinion. “Terrorism remains a persistent threat he Iranian Revolu- 1977, then his signing the Camp or the other about which is more and, in some ways, is positioned to increase in tion, which is marking David Accords in September 1978 Muslim. 2019,” said Coats. its 40th anniversary, and finally the Egyptian-Israeli In the era of the Islamic Repub- The AP-NORC poll said most respondents in the is no less important peace treaty in March 1979. lic, the Shias became more radical United States said there is reason for concern about When the Islamic Republic of the danger posed by extremists, with 58% of than the Bolshevik and consequently dragged the Democrats and 53% of Republicans asked saying Revolution. It was a Iran came about, Egypt had been Sunnis with them down the same they were wary of the threat. Tgenuine popular revolution that ostracised by the Arab League. path of extremism. At no time The United States’ perception of threats in the changed the face of the Mid- The new Iran was the first to was the profound relationship Middle East and North Africa do affect global dle East, the Gulf and the wider benefit from that situation and between the Muslim Brotherhood military and security outlook in the MENA region. region, including Yemen on one pushed in the direction of the and Iran absent from the regional Of course, the threat perception is unavoidably side and Afghanistan on the op- Syrian and Iraqi Ba’athists. scene. As a witness to that, there tainted by US considerations, biases and interests, posite side. Saddam Hussein, even un- is a street in Tehran named after the main one being the prism of US national The Iranian Revolution made der Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr’s Khaled al-Islamabouli, the Muslim security. real inroads deep inside the re- presidency, created the right Brother who assassinated Sadat. Very often there are common interests between gion by relying on two important atmosphere for Iran to infiltrate What has not changed much for the Arab world and the United States in the fight and dangerous weapons: playing the Arab fabric and go deep in the past 40 years is the absence against terrorism or in thwarting Iranian designs but for Arab populations on the receiving end of to sectarian base instincts and the Iraqi interior. He paid a heavy of a serious American will to con- terrorist attacks, sectarian agendas or of smart abducting the Palestinian cause price for it in 1980 when he found front Iran. What has not changed bombs at ground zero, there is bound to be a from the Arabs. Before the estab- himself in direct confrontation either is Iran’s hostile behaviour, different perspective about what constitutes a lishment of the Islamic Republic with Iran. The Iran-Iraq war which had been apparent during security threat. A common Arab national security of Iran, there was no open Sunni- raged for eight years and Iran was the shah’s regime. doctrine could help assess such threats and flesh Shia conflict. supported by Syria’s Hafez Assad Thus, the Emirati islands of out regional counter-strategies. Before the Iranian Revolution, and Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi. Abu Musa, Lesser Tunb and there was no one who had any The biggest disappointment, Greater Tunb have been illegally other concern than to outbid the however, was the one experi- occupied by Iran since 1971. Iran Iran’s indiscriminate Arab nations on the Palestinian enced by Yasser Arafat when he has scored victories in more than crackdown on dissent cause. Before the Iranian Revolu- discovered during his first visit one Arab country, in Iraq, Syria, tion, Lebanon was something to Tehran and his meeting with Lebanon and Yemen and a near o judge from an Amnesty International else, as were Syria and Iraq. Khomeini that what was required victory in Bahrain. It has literally report, 2018 was not a good year for It wasn’t enough that Ayatollah of him was to be a pawn of the conquered many Arab nations just anyone in Iran, except perhaps the Ruhollah Khomeini made the Islamic Republic and to forget by brandishing the slogan “Death ruling mullahs. last Friday of each Ramadan “Je- the role he played in supporting to America and Death to Israel.” More than 7,000 Iranians were rusalem Day,” Iran also blocked anyone who wanted to get rid of However, neither the United arrested in a massive crackdown that any chance for a reasonable the shah. States nor Israel has died. Tspared no one, including reporters, environmen- settlement with Israel. It was by Arafat’s support to the Iranian It’s been 40 years since Khomei- talists, lawyers, women’s rights activists, trade making Hamas carry out suicide Revolution was in the form of ni’s triumphant return to Tehran. unionists and members of ethnic and religious bombings that Iran killed any accepting military training in The entire region has changed but minorities. In the course of the harsh repression of protests, chances for a settlement. Those Palestinian camps in Lebanon of to the worse. more than 26 demonstrators were killed. attacks served only the interests various Iranian groups united by What has not changed is Iran’s There were outrageous charges levelled at of the extreme right in Israel, their hate for the shah’s regime. arrogance towards the Arabs. protesters and disproportionately harsh sentences which was opposed to any settle- Iran took the utmost advantage Unfortunately, some Arabs have handed down by unfair courts. In West Azerbaijan ment with the Palestinians, espe- of the decline of Egypt’s Arab role accepted to become a sectarian province, “spreading lies” was the charge against cially to the two-state option. with the intimidation campaign militia in the service of Iran’s journalist Mohammad Hossein, who received 74 Through Hamas and other by Ba’ath parties of Syria and hopeless expansionist project. lashes as punishment. proxies, Iran has played an im- Iraq. Iran’s expansion to Lebanon That project will meet the same Hundreds of followers of the Sufi order the portant role in changing the na- created a threat for Iraq and the fate as the former Soviet expan- Gonabadi were arrested. More than 200 of them received a total of 1,080 years in prison and 5,995 ture of Israeli society and making Gulf countries and it also upped sion project. lashes. it more right wing and extremist. its role in Syria and Yemen. What the Iranian Revolution and At least 171 Christians were arrested because The suffering that the Pales- What is the secret behind the Bolshevik Revolution have in they dared practise their faith. tinians experience today is the US-Iranian relations since 1979? common is there were projects A peaceful protest against forced hijab wearing result of Iran’s thwarting any What was the secret behind the based on foreign expansion but earned Shaparak Shajarizadeh a sentence of 20 hope of a settlement when some US invasion of Iraq in 2003 at a by countries without an economic years in prison. progress could have been made time when even a child could base that could secure a minimum With unrest likely to continue, only interna- towards achieving an independ- tell that the prime winner of any standard of living. Under the shah, tional solidarity with the victims of repression ent Palestinian state. That dream war leading to a change of the Iran relied heavily on oil and gas could slow the authorities’ onslaught. Public disquiet will continue to be seen considering the has become a mirage. regime in Iraq without a good revenues and, under Khomeini, it increasing hardship endured by Iranians as a In 40 years, Iran has trans- preparation for the post-Saddam has become even more dependent result of not just US sanctions but also their own formed itself into a key regional era would be Iran and no one else on those revenues. government’s profligate spending on adventures player, if not the main player, but Iran? Iran today is good at meting abroad and the widespread corruption within its in light of the decline of Egypt’s During the Khomeini era and death and destruction and not ranks. role. under the reign of Ayatollah Ali good at offering models even “Governments that are engaged in dialogue with All Arabs bear responsibility for Khamenei, Iran could have been remotely connected to the culture Iran must not stay silent while the net of repres- Egypt’s decline as the key region- a different version of the shah’s of life. sion rapidly widens,” said Philip Luther, Amnesty al player after insisting on isolat- Iran. It could have spared the International’s Middle East and North Africa research and advocacy director. ing it following Anwar Sadat’s region so many disasters instead Khairallah Khairallah is a Leba- visit to Jerusalem in November of competing with this Arab state nese writer. February 3, 2019 7 Opinion

Iran has vital stakes in Iraq’s vassalage Published by Al Arab Majid al-Samarrai Publishing House The more painful the economic battle against Iran becomes, Publisher the more it will rely on its parallel state in Iraq. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD he Iraqi political sanctions on Tehran. That Iraq and remove the monopoly persists in pursuing a policy of Editor-in-Chief reality is confusing problem has become more of illegal oil-exporting op- openness on the Arab world because of accu- acute for the current govern- erations from traditional Shia in the hope of enlisting Arab Oussama Romdhani mulated problems, ment because the Trump parties. aid to overcome infrastructure especially those administration aims to strangle The pro-Iranian militias’ and urban crises in provinces related to liv- Iran economically. power and control extend liberated from the Islamic State Managing Editor Ting conditions and security. Iraq is going to be the main to economic and military and ease Iran’s stranglehold on Iman Zayat Parents and millions of widows battlefield for the US-Iran domains just like the Islamic Iraqi trade and energy. Tehran live in a state of despair and confrontation. Political and Revolutionary Guard Corps knows that Arab offers to help Deputy Managing Editor fatigue. military preparations, such as does in Iran. the Iraqi people are genuine. and Online Editor The four governments that the transfer and stockpiling The Iraqis may differ among Given these considerations, Mamoon Alabbasi preceded the current one in of Iranian ballistic missiles in themselves on the political Abdul-Mahdi should expect Iraq had either created more Iraq, increase the tensions. project that will control them rough seas ahead. His soft Senior Editor crises or were unable to resolve These missiles might target but they will not tolerate approach might not prevent a John Hendel inherited ones. The internal Iraq’s Arab neighbours who being blatantly and viciously clash with Tehran if it finds him cause for this failure was the are friendly with the United enslaved by an external force, adamant about implementing Chief Copy Editor dominance of sectarian Islamic States. whether the United States or programmes for change. In that Richard Pretorius parties over governments and Tehran has strengthened Iran. case, the Iranian backlash will their protection of the corrupt. its political influence in Iraq This is why the new Iranian be delivered by the parallel Copy Editor The external cause was the by transferring the fighting game seeks to turn its political state. Stephen Quillen Iranian regime’s control of capabilities of its agents from hegemony in Iraq into pro- The next battle for this new all details pertaining to the their positions in the popular grammes implemented by its state inside Iraq will be on East/West Section Editor political, economic and social militias to the political scene. agents and proxies. Iranian political, media and military Mark Habeeb aspects of life in Iraq, with the That transfer has had an un- Major-General Qassem Soleim- fronts. It will ostensibly target voluntary and compulsory ac- precedented effect on parlia- ani prepared the field by set- US interests and mobilise Gulf Section Editor quiescence of the Iraqi govern- ment and the government. tling the sectarian differences parliament to end the security Mohammed Alkhereiji ments. That Iranian hegemony Pro-Iranian militias and with the Sunni Arabs. The trick agreement with Washington. has caused great harm to the factions have benefited from was to include in the circle of Once that’s done, direct Society and Travel Iraqis. an impressive array of political power new Sunni faces from clashes with US forces in Iraq Sections Editor Iraqi Prime Minister Adel and legal shields and can si- among those who were eagerly become possible, even though Samar Kadi Abdul-Mahdi seems keen on lence any Iraqi voice that dares seeking political positions pro-Iranian militias and fac- turning things around but solv- criticise them or complains to protect and develop their tions would never dare such Contributing Editor ing the crises seems beyond about being harmed by their commercial interests in Iraq suicidal moves themselves. Rashmee Roshan Lall his motivation and personal actions. These forces loyal to or from among those who The hidden agenda, however, abilities even if he enlists the Tehran could determine Iraqi showed loyalty to both Tehran is to block any political inclina- help of political colleagues political decisions without and Washington. tion or initiative on the part Senior Correspondents who do not belong to Islamic having to concede even a small In any case, the militias of the government of Abdul- Mahmud el-Shafey (London) parties. These parties — and portion of political power to have woven their webs in all Mahdi towards breaking the Iran behind them — lurk in the Shia factions that won the lat- of Iraq’s provinces, including isolation of Iraq. Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) shadows, waiting for the op- est elections. Sunni Arab ones and the south- The coming days will be Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) portunity to pounce on Abdul- Iran had feared losing its ern ones, and have infiltrated bleak for Iran considering the Thomas Frank (Washington) Mahdi and his government. political influence in Iraq the country’s military, security real prospects of curbing its Unfortunately, regardless of and rushed to strengthen its and intelligence command influence in Syria and of losing Regular Columnists what Abdul-Mahdi wants to shadow government with the centres. its Venezuelan ally, Nicolas Claude Salhani change, he is forced to import military might of the militias, After these logistical ar- Maduro. The more painful Yavuz Baydar oil products and electric- which has become comparable rangements to build a parallel the economic battle against it ity from Iran and the latter is to that of the Iraqi Army. state, Tehran will not allow any becomes, the more it will rely Correspondents growing greedier and more Expect an influx of Iranian attempt to break the isolation on its parallel state in Iraq. ferocious and entrenched funds to various ministries, of Iraq from its Arab environ- However, this alleged parallel Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) through its military agents accompanied by huge fanfare ment because it believes this state will crumble inside Iraq Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) planted in Iraq. from pro-Iranian media. will reduce its hegemony over once Iran’s economic and politi- Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Abdul-Mahdi knows that Tehran has also increased the country. cal power collapses. Iran denied Haider al-Abadi the capacities of its proxy For this reason, we do not Chief Designer a second term because of his militias so they can control oil- rule out collision between Iran Majid al-Samarrai is an Iraqi Marwen el-Hmedi neutral position towards US production centres in southern and Abdul-Mahdi if the latter writer. Designers Ibrahim Ben Bechir Time for the West to embrace Assad again? Hanen Jebali Stephen Starr That Washington lifted sanctions on Khartoum in 2017 offers Contact editor at: further hope for the Syrian regime down the road. [email protected]

t’s worth stepping back major international invest- battling terrorists at the height roadblock on the path to As- to consider just how far ment in health and education of the war remains a potent if sad’s return from exile: the the Syrian regime has re- would affect millions of under-appreciated weapon. international criminal courts bounded. Many thought traumatised Syrians more From the president system. Since the 1950s, Al Arab Publishing House the end was near in than regime leaders. Major downward, senior Syrian governments have rarely man- Quadrant Building 2012. High-level figures, organisations such as the officials — bureaucrats and aged to fully shrug off at least 177-179 Hammersmith Road Iincluding the Syrian defence United Nations, the European those on the front line — are some responsibility for civilian London W6 8BS minister and President Bashar Union and others know that. convinced that the regime is deaths on the scale that oc- Assad’s brother-in-law, Assef A time will come when they the legitimate power in Syria curred in Syria. Individuals Shawkat, were killed by a push Western governments to and that Syria is a central cog associated with the Srebrenica rebel-laid bomb in Damascus. re-engage with Damascus. in Middle East politics. That massacre in Bosnia and with Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 In the months that followed, The Damascus charm of- Iran has invested so heavily the Khmer Rouge regime and Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 Damascus found itself facing fensive is in full swing. The in the regime backs up those the Cambodia genocide have opposition forces on three head of the Scottish Catholic convictions. felt the full force of interna- fronts. The end of the Assad International Aid Front, for ex- Dealing with Syria means tional justice. regime seemed inevitable. ample, recently returned from dealing with Iran. While US Luckily for Damascus, the US Publisher: Only the naive would Syria, telling ITV News and President Donald Trump has United States is not a party to The Arab Weekly USA LLC. believe that today. Arab others that the international made clear his disinterest in the Rome Statute of the Inter- countries long opposed to the community had a responsibil- working with Tehran, things national Criminal Court (ICC). [email protected] regime are now taking steps ity to help rebuild the country. could change if a Democratic Damascus might, therefore, [email protected] to bury the hatchet. So, what Damascus has said little candidate won the 2020 US look to Sudan as an example. would the West gain from publicly about realigning with presidential election. In that Sudanese President Omar Tel: 248-679-6624 doing the same? What would the international community. case, there may be attempts to al-Bashir is wanted by the such a move cost? However, having worked solidify the Iran nuclear deal. ICC for war crimes and other First, the deaths due to for pro-government media By then, Damascus would offences but dozens of interna- exposure of nine Syrian outlets in the Syrian capital hope that it could serve as a tional humanitarian agencies children at the Rubkan and before the war and gained conduit between Washington openly operate there. That other refugee camps in recent insight into the way the and Tehran and, in so doing, Washington lifted sanctions weeks might have been pre- regime perceives the outside elevate its own strategic im- on Khartoum in 2017 offers Subscription & Advertising: vented had international aid world, I can safely make a portance. further hope for the Syrian [email protected] agencies been on the ground. few assumptions: The regime Some commentators claim regime down the road. Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 The United Nations and other would regard a return to the that Trump is leading the The uncomfortable truth organisations are blocked by international fold as a major drive to rehabilitate Assad. is that, more likely than not, the regime from assisting at coup and it would also be “Trump likes Assad,” wrote Western governments will be Mohamed Al Mufti Rubkan and dozens of other willing to make cynical use of a columnist in Britain’s In- working with Bashar Assad Marketing & Advertising camps. Is the chance to save incidents such as the Rubkan dependent newspaper. “He sooner rather than later. Manager lives today, tomorrow and in camp deaths as leverage. thinks he is one of the ‘tough the months and years ahead The propaganda effort that guys’ who managed to force Stephen Starr is the author of Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 worth the price of making has proven extremely effec- their will over the interna- “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness www.alarab.co.uk peace with Assad? tive at convincing the Syrian tional community.” to the Uprising” and has lived A post-war Syria devoid of people the government was Even so, there is one major in Syria and Turkey since 2007. 8 February 3, 2019 News & Analysis Syria Syria’s constitutional efforts grind to a halt

Thomas Seibert Economic and Social Research, a think-tank that often reflects the Turkish government thinking, said Istanbul he did not expect the committee to be ready before May or June. drive to set up a panel to Unyielding enmity and distrust write a new constitution between the government of Syrian for Syria has all but ground President Bashar Assad, the oppo- A to a halt because of deep sition and other Syrian groups are political differences between local among reasons for the delay. Fol- and international players. lowing a string of victories on the One year ago, a meeting in Rus- battlefield, Assad appears in no sia of almost 1,400 representatives rush to offer compromises to the of various Syrian groups led to opposition. the formation of a “Constitutional The United Nations last October Committee.” Announcing the deci- said Damascus rejected the world sion on January 30, 2018, Staffan de body’s list of the 50 civil society Mistura, the UN Syria envoy at the members and did not accept a UN time, said the committee’s work role in the selection of panellists. would be “drafting a constitutional Western powers condemned Syr- reform.” ia’s stance. The opposition is con- The plan sparked hopes for a po- cerned that Assad could use the litical process in Syria that could committee to make sure that his lead to free elections and the end regime stays in power. of a war that has killed hundreds Further talks failed to overcome of thousands of people and has the impasse for much of last year Multiplayer game. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (C), Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut caused widespread destruction but a statement issued by the Cavusoglu (R) and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif attend a news conference in since 2011. Astana powers in December sug- Moscow, last April. (AFP) Twelve months later, there is no gested they reached an agreement sign of constitutional talks starting among themselves, even though anytime soon. no details were given. asked Western countries to pres- and the United States, was trying Turkey threatened to set up a buff- The United Nations said the com- International negotiations con- sure Turkey to overcome that veto, to change the composition of the er zone to drive the YPG from the mittee is to draw 50 delegates each tinue. New UN Syria Envoy Geir news reports said. committee, news reports said. border area, while Russia and the from three sides: the Syrian gov- Pedersen raised the issue of the Wrangling between the Astana US President Donald Trump’s Assad government called for Syrian ernment, the opposition and civil committee in talks with Turkish trio and the West also plays a part. unexpected announcement in government troops to take control. society. The three groups’ com- Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu Putin, speaking after a January 24 December to pull out the 2,000 Putin has suggested talks be- position was to be decided by the and the US Special Representative meeting with Turkish President American troops deployed in Syria tween Turkey and Syria to settle Damascus government, opposition for Syria James Jeffrey, the United Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Moscow, was an additional stumbling block the issue, pointing to the so-called organisations and the United Na- Nations said. said France, Germany and the because it changed the power bal- Adana Protocol of 1998 that in- tions, respectively, but months of Turkey’s determination to pre- United Kingdom had called on the ance in the country. cluded joint Turkish-Syrian steps diplomatic efforts failed to get the vent Kurdish autonomy in post-war United Nations not to ratify the list to combat terrorism. Analysts said committee established. Syria has been another complica- of committee members presented Unyielding enmity and the move could change relations by Russia, Turkey and Iran. Putin between Turkey and the Syrian Russia, Iran and Turkey — the trio tion. The ruling political powers in distrust between the driving the so-called Astana pro- Syria’s Kurdish region with its ap- said he had been surprised by the Kurds. cess for Syria in parallel to UN peace proximately 2 million people — 10% European demand but expressed government of Syrian “Putin is looking to build the efforts — missed a deadline set by of Syria’s total population — are the hope that differences could be President Bashar Assad, bridge between the Syrian Kurds Russian President Vladimir Putin Democratic Union Party (PYD) and overcome. the opposition and other and Turkey, via Damascus, by put- to have the committee start work in its militia, the People’s Protection His comments followed Rus- Syrian groups are among ting the 1998 Adana agreement December. They then said the panel Units (YPG), organisations regard- sian statements in December ac- reasons for the delay. back in play,” Andrew Parasiliti of should be up and running “early” in ed as terrorist groups by Ankara. cusing Western countries of try- the RAND Corporation said via e- 2019 but that, too, appears to have “Turkey is absolutely against the ing to sabotage the formation of The withdrawal announcement mail. “This is not going to happen been overly optimistic. participation of the PYD,” Yalcin the constitutional panel. Russian triggered a scramble by several easily or quickly but it is one of the “This is a game with many sides,” said. Shortly after the Sochi confer- Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei players for the wide parts of east- key steps in the political transi- Hasan Yalcin, an Istanbul-based ex- ence of January 2018, Ankara asked Ryabkov said the US-led “small ern Syria liberated from the Islamic tion.” pert on Turkish foreign policy, said. the United Nations not to include group” on Syria, which includes State by the United States and the Yalcin, director of Strategic Stud- PYD members in the constitutional Egypt, France, Germany, , YPG, with possible repercussions Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly ies at the Foundation for Political, body but Kurdish representatives , the United Kingdom on the committee’s composition. correspondent. Russia revives old agreement to end Syria-Turkey dilemma

Sami Moubayed and report on progress or viola- it, however, making it legally pos- sations Agreement signed during militarily, making them partners tions. sible to revisit today. the Syrian-Turkish honeymoon in the war on terror, rather than The agreement gave the Turks Putin said the Adana agreement in 2010. That treaty stresses that sworn enemies. Beirut the right to enter Syrian territory would give the two countries a le- Kurdish militants can’t use Syrian The agreement would serve as as far as 5km in pursuit of Kurdish gal pretext to talk, which would territory and bans them from car- an alternative to the safe zone that ussian President Vladimir militants but said nothing about mean de facto Turkish recognition rying arms or setting up training Erdogan had wanted to carve out Putin recently brushed establishing a permanent Turkish of the Syrian government. camps in Syria. of Syria, achieving its desired re- the dust off an old Syrian- presence on Syrian soil. That in- Erdogan has welcomed the move Turkish President Recep Tayyip sults without giving the Turks legal R Turkish treaty, known as tervention was only justified when and so did the Syrian Foreign Min- Erdogan said current Kurdish mi- ground to stay in Syria. the Adana agreement, taking it out coordinated with the Syrian gov- istry, which issued a statement say- litias, known as the Syrian Demo- of the Syrian archives where it had ernment. ing that it was committed to the cratic Forces and the People’s Pro- been stored — barely remembered Adana also recognised Syrian Adana agreement — if the border tection Units, are extensions of the Syrians would have to and not enforced — since the out- sovereignty over border towns and situation returned to its pre-2011 PKK. For relations to normalise, guarantee that they keep break of the Syrian conflict in 2011. villages presently in the hands of status. In other words, if the Turks Syria would have to eradicate them. their borders and towns That agreement averted a Syrian- Turkish proxies, with no mention withdrew from all cities and towns If it does, Putin would have to free of Kurdish military Turkish confrontation in 1998 and of a safe zone, making it obligatory they occupied in 2016. withdraw from all occupied towns presence. Putin apparently thinks that, if re- for the Syrians to clear their ter- The ball is now in the court of and cities. Erdogan seems to have visited, it can avoid war in 2019. ritory from Kurdish militants and Syria and the Russians. Gone is all realised that he bit off more than Erdogan originally wanted to The Adana agreement was for the Turks to act only if Syrians mention of the safe zone that Er- he could chew in Syria and is ac- keep his military in the occupied signed after a massive Turkish mo- failed to do so. dogan wanted at a width of 460km cepting to mend relations with Da- towns of Jarabulus, Azaz and al- bilisation on the border with Syria. The agreement was renewed au- and depth of 30km within Syrian mascus if his security concerns are Bab and for his fiefdom to include Ankara was threatening to attack if tomatically through the years but territory. respected and addressed. Ras al-Ayn, Kobane, al-Malikiyah, Syrian President Hafez Assad con- became obsolete with the collapse Turkey will be tapping into an- In 1998, Adana called for confi- Tal Nimer, Darbasiyah, Amuda, tinued to support the Kurdistan of bilateral relations in 2011. Nei- other pact, the Joint Cooperation dence-building measures, a text Wardieh, Tal Hamis, Qahtaniyah, Workers’ Party (PKK), considered ther side officially withdrew from against Terror and Terror Organi- that can be revisited today to re- Yaaroubia and Tell Rifaat. by Ankara a terrorist organisation. establish diplomatic ties and joint In exchange, he made it clear, Putin had just been appointed di- committees on counter terrorism. through the Russians, that he was rector of the Federal Security Ser- It would require a hotline between willing to surrender Idlib, Maaret vice, the successor of the KGB. The Damascus and Ankara, putting an al-Nu’man, Khan Sheikhoun and Adana agreement certainly passed end to Syrian-Kurdish negotiations Jisr al-Shughour. through his paperwork and seems that started in mid-December after If the Adana agreement is revis- to have left a lasting impression. US President Donald Trump said he ited and reimplemented, however, The deal was brokered by Iran would be withdrawing US troops none of that can happen and Er- and former Egyptian President from Syria, stationed to protect dogan would be in no position to and it called for the Kurdish militias east of the Euphra- keep any Syrian territory. Those dismantling PKK training camps in tes River. cities would return to Syrian gov- Syria and Lebanon (then controlled Erdogan’s goal is to clear the bor- ernment control but Erdogan’s directly by the Syrian Army) and der area from any Kurdish presence forces would be allowed to enter the expulsion of PKK leader Abdul- and change the demographics of them, if need may arise, to fight lah Ocalan from Damascus. Kurdish territory, injecting them Kurdish presence. It prevented Kurdish militants with Arab Syrian refugees who have In return, the Syrians would have from travelling through or setting been living in Turkey since 2011. to guarantee that they keep their up bases in Syria and created per- Putin said the agreement ad- borders and towns free of Kurdish manent communication between equately addresses Turkish con- military presence. Damascus and Ankara, establish- cerns, reduces Kurdish threats and ing telephone connection between Treading a fine line. A Russian military vehicle follows a local preserves sovereignty of the Syrian Sami Moubayed is a Syrian the two countries and joint military vehicle in the area of Arimah, just west of Manbij, the northern state, giving Damascus and Ankara historian and author of “Under the committees to monitor the borders city near the Turkish border. (AFP) reason to re-engage, politically and Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). February 3, 2019 9 News & Analysis Iraq US military presence rattles Iran-linked militias in Iraq, not others

Azhar al-Rubaie Aws al-Khafaji, a militia leader, and Yousif Raheem said in a video that he feared US troops could be welcomed by many Iraqis who are against the Baghdad Baghdad government. “I fear that if the Americans epercussions from recent come in, the people, who have visits by US President become desperate, would turn Donald Trump and Secre- against the state like Saddam,” R tary of State Mike Pompeo said Khafaji, referring to the US- to Iraq are still playing out in the led invasion that toppled Saddam country, especially among Iran- Hussein in 2003. backed militia leaders. “We don’t like the Americans The militia leaders want the but we were silent when they Iraqi government to side with Iran came for Saddam. We were happy in the face of US sanctions against and said: ‘Let them take him.’ We Mixed reactions. Qais al-Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, speaks during an interview Tehran. They were also rattled by fear this may be repeated. They with the Associated Press in Baghdad, January 28. (AP) reports that some Iraqi militias (Iraqi officials) should be careful.” had been blacklisted by Washing- Observers said some Iraqi poli- ton. ticians viewed the US presence in ing of cancer of Iran’s militias in informed the American side of our framework agreement” and par- The visits by top US officials and Iraq as a counterbalance to Iran’s Iraq.” full support to them,” Hewitt said. liamentarians who collected signa- measures by the Trump adminis- influence in Iraq. Salah Hassan Ibrahim, a journal- Eid Ammash, a member of the tures asking for the withdrawal of tration against Iran and its proxies “Some political parties are sup- ist in Anbar, said many people in Anbar provincial council, said the US troops have not formally tabled prompted Iraqi militia leaders to porting the presence of US troops the province predict there will be presence of a US base in the prov- a motion in the legislature. “It is reiterate calls for a speedy with- because they are not able to face clashes between Iran-backed mili- ince is for logistical reasons to fight still just talk, no motion, no pro- drawal of US troops from Iraq. the Iran-backed politicians in tias and US troops. Iraqis there are the Islamic State (ISIS). posal, nothing,” Harb said. Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Baghdad,” said Mohammed al- critical of the militias. “There is “Those who are in Ain al-Asad Iran has been proactive in try- Ahl al-Haq militia and who repre- Qaisy, an Iraqi analyst. support for US troops presence by Airbase are there at the invitation ing to counter US sanctions, send- sents a 15-member bloc in parlia- Ghaith al-Tamimi, president of Sunni tribal powers and citizens,” of Iraq to train Iraqi forces to fight ing top officials to Baghdad rather ment, told the Associated Press the Iraqi Centre for Diversity Man- Ibrahim said. ISIS,” Ammash said. “They are than rely on proxies. he expected a vote calling for the agement, said he welcomed aid Sheikh Muzahim al-Hewitt, trainers, consultants and military The recent 4-day visit by Iranian withdrawal of US troops. from countries that promised to spokesman of the Arab tribes in experts for logistic support for the Foreign Minister Mohammad Ja- “If the United States wants to counter Iran in Iraq. Nineveh province, said he wel- US-led-coalition against ISIS.” vad Zarif to Iraq was meant to make impose its presence by force and “The presence of US troops in comed the presence of US troops in Ammash said the presence of sure that US sanctions against Teh- to bypass the Iraqi constitution Iraq is very necessary if the pro- Sunni areas as a deterrent to “the the base and the troops was de- ran would not affect trade ties be- and parliament, Iraq can treat it ject includes expelling the militias crimes of militias and agendas sup- cided by the central government in tween Iran and Iraq, Qaisy said. the same way and drive it out by and narrowing Iranian influence,” ported by Iran.” Baghdad, not by officials in Anbar. force… but the first phase is po- Tamimi said. “Iraq needs interna- “We reject naming US troops as Legal expert Tariq Harb said the Azhar al-Rubaie and Yousif litical,” Khazali said in reference to tional support for Iraq’s national occupation forces. They are [liber- presence of US troops in Iraq was Raheem are freelance journalists the parliamentary vote. moderates in order to stop spread- ation forces] and we, as Arab tribes, covered by a “US-Iraq strategic in Iraq.

Viewpoint The torture of children in Iraqi Kurdistan must stop

hose casually following these actors will know there is allowed to read the confessions tion still behaves like the Gestapo the war against the simply nothing “heroic,” let alone until they were taken before rather than dealing with actual Tallha Islamic State (ISIS) “civilised,” about torturing judges who would invariably threats and safeguarding the Abdulrazaq often hear how various children. convict them based on confessions citizens it is charged with protect- Kurdish factions in Iraq In a damning report, Human extracted under torture. ing. and Syria are at the Rights Watch (HRW) claimed the Most children were denied Tforefront of the battle against the KRG detained children on terror- access to lawyers and when they hard-line militants. ism offences linked to ISIS and complained of the torture to It is not known why Groups such as the People’s Kurdish security forces used judicial officials, they were Iraqi Kurdish Protection Units in Syria or the electric shocks and beatings to ignored and their confessions Kurdistan Regional Government’s extract confessions of ISIS processed as evidence against authorities failed to (KRG) peshmerga fighters in Iraq membership from vulnerable them, HRW said. bring those in their have been lionised as bastions minors. While some might argue this may holding the line for the civilised Children interviewed in deten- be an isolated incident, it most security forces to world against the radical jihadist tion centres by HRW in Iraqi assuredly is not. In December 2016, justice for torturing threat emanating from ISIS. Kurdistan said they signed HRW interviewed children held by children. However, those who have confessions just to make the Kurdish authorities at the Women followed the so-called heroics of torture stop and they were not and Children’s Reformatory Every year, the KRG has events detention facility in Erbil, the KRG’s to remind people of the crimes capital. HRW said children — all committed against the Kurdish from the Sunni Arab demographic people, commemorating such apart from one Kurdish child — had events as the gassing of Halabja been held arbitrarily, denied and arbitrary arrest and killing of contact with their families, denied Kurdish civilians. These horrific access to lawyers and were tortured crimes should never be repeated. to again extract confessions of Yet one would hope that, after association with ISIS terrorists. having suffered such tragedies, Children were beaten with pipes Kurdish authorities would be the and cables, punched and kicked, first to make sure that crimes forced into stress positions, against humanity would not occur electrically shocked and burned on their watch. with cigarettes by Kurdish It is not known why Iraqi Kurdish interrogators. Many of the children authorities failed to bring those in were arrested by Kurdish security their security forces to justice for operatives from camps for the torturing children. It is quite internally displaced. In other possible that they are motivated by words, these children were fleeing a desire to force demographic ISIS and the Iran-sponsored Shia change over the region by forcing jihadists battling them. mostly Arab but also Turkmen HRW’s investigation led KRG populations out of areas they wish officials to promise to investigate to claim as part of a future state. allegations of torture and to In behaving this way, separatist ensure that no child was tortured. factions that have a vested interest However, more than two years on in pursuing racist policies are no from those promises and more different from the Ba’athists they than a year since ISIS was formally despise. declared defeated by the Iraqi government, HRW said the KRG Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher at More than meets the eye. A Kurdish peshmerga soldier watches a boy while he is transferred from continues to detain and torture the University of Exeter’s Strategy a Kurdish position near Bashiqa. (Reuters) children and the security organisa- and Security Institute in England. 10 February 3, 2019 News & Analysis Qatar New US lawsuit accuses Qatari lobbyists of using hacked e-mail in smear campaign

Thomas Frank Broidy is not suing the country but rather three of its lobbyists and former lobbyists. Qatar and the Washington lobbyists have denied the accusa- tions. prominent American po- Qatar’s campaign to discredit litical operative who de- Broidy purportedly began in late nounced Qatar in 2017 2017 after Saudi Arabia, the United A has obtained phone re- Arab Emirates and other Arabian cords he claims show lobbyists for Gulf countries severed ties with Doha leaked his personal e-mail to Doha and imposed an economic journalists to discredit and silence boycott for its suspected ties to him. extremist groups and Iran. Broidy Phone records indicate that Qa- was viewed as having influenced tari lobbyists spoke on hundreds Trump to publicly criticise Qatar of occasions with influential jour- when the blockade began in June nalists who were writing damag- 2017. Trump later moderated his ing stories about Elliott Broidy criticism. based on e-mail that the lobbyists The alleged Qatari effort to dis- allegedly helped hack from his ac- credit Broidy was successful. Re- counts. porters for leading US news out- Qatar allegedly financed the ef- lets used hacked e-mail to report fort to smear operative Broidy, a that Broidy paid $1.6 million to a major fundraiser with ties to US former model for Playboy maga- President Donald Trump and a vo- zine who said she became preg- cal critic of Qatar for its suspected nant by Broidy, who is married to terrorist links. another woman. The revelations led Broidy to resign from the Re- publican National Committee. The lawsuit makes the claim Broidy has tried to place blame that Qatar helped hack on Qatar with a series of lawsuits e-mails of more than 1,000 against the country, its lobbyists people worldwide, including and other officials. In one lawsuit, senior US political officials, Broidy accused a former high- European defence leaders, ranking UN official of receiving FIFA football stars and millions of dollars from Qatar to A 2008 file picture shows Elliott Broidy in New York. (AP) Indian movie actors. orchestrate the smear campaign. ‘Criminal enterprise.’ In December, a US judge dismissed The phone records are described the lawsuit, which named Jamal hacked e-mail, the lawsuit says. ner in a lobbying firm. “We got the ers familiar territory, it takes the in a lawsuit Broidy filed January Benomar, a former UN special en- “Howard’s phone records show press going after Broidy.” unusual step of claiming that Qa- 24 in US federal court accusing voy to Yemen. that he orchestrated a sophisti- The lawsuit makes the unsub- tari lobbyists violated a law usu- American-based lobbyists for Qa- Broidy’s latest lawsuit echoes cated media and distribution cam- stantiated claim that Qatar helped ally used to prosecute organised tar of running “a scheme of extor- his earlier complaints but adds paign… to place information ille- hack e-mails of more than 1,000 crime. The law, called the Rack- tion, illegal hacking and unlawful new credibility by recounting hun- gally obtained from the hacking people worldwide, including sen- eteer Influenced and Corrupt Or- distribution of carefully curated dreds of conversations Qatari lob- in the hands of journalists, media ior US political officials, European ganisations Act — better known batches of [Broidy’s] private docu- byists had with journalists from organisations and public relations defence leaders, FIFA football stars as RICO — has been used to prose- ments.” the New York Times, the Washing- professionals,” the suit alleges. and Indian movie actors. Broidy cute leaders of organised criminal “The overarching goal,” the law- ton Post, the Wall Street Journal The lawsuit revealed messages “uncovered the identities of other gangs for crimes they ordered sub- suit adds, “has been to silence Mr and the Associated Press. that two lobbyists for Qatar — targets” through computer re- ordinates to do. Broidy’s lawsuit Broidy by destroying his credibil- One lobbyist, Gregory Howard, Nicolas Muzin and Joseph Alla- cords, the lawsuit says. The claim says the lobbyists who smeared ity, damaging his business [and] had more than 200 phone calls ham — exchanged in January 2018 does not name the “other targets” him were part of a “criminal en- causing financial harm.” with journalists from January-May when reporters began digging into or explain why Qatar would have terprise” of “seemingly legitimate Although Qatar is mentioned last year when they were report- Broidy’s e-mails. “It’s very good,” hacked their e-mail accounts. institutions” that engaged in rack- throughout the 82-page lawsuit, ing stories about Broidy and his Muzin wrote to Allaham, his part- Although Broidy’s lawsuit cov- eteering.

Viewpoint Doha’s Iran imports jump and it hopes US doesn’t notice ineteen months $25 million annually — precludes wealth and influence. Qatar’s Good relations with Berlin are after Saudi Arabia currency swaps. Also, there is withdrawal from OPEC will have also evident in the recent German and three other Arab consumer scepticism in Qatar little effect because its 600,000 government approval for the countries imposed a over the quality of some Iranian barrels of daily oil exports are just export to Qatar of four RAM naval Gareth Smyth boycott of Qatar over products. 2% of OPEC’s total. However, in guided missile defence systems. its relations with Nonetheless, with Tehran’s terms of gas exports, Qatar The small, surface-to-air Rolling NIran and the Muslim Brotherhood, relations with the United Arab matters. It supplies one-quarter Airframe Missiles are developed Doha’s imports from Tehran have Emirates cooling as the United of the UAE’s gas and around 13% by German, European and US jumped substantially. States tightens sanctions, there of Britain’s. Its largest export arms manufacturers. Importing more Iranian goods may be scope for Iran to use Qatar, market is Japan. In 2017, US President Donald fits a wider Qatari strategy, a as well as Oman, as a trading hub, Qatar’s wealth is diversified. Trump expressed support for the European security analyst said: perhaps even to export oil. With $320 billion in its reserves, move against Qatar as a “hard line “The start [of the boycott] was Transport links are growing. Doha has vast interests that on funding extremism” but since tough but the crisis has pushed Qatar Airways, which was offered balance any relationship with then Qatar has been buoyed by a [the Qataris] to diversify their access to Iranian airspace after Iran. The Qatar Investment more neutral US stance. In mid- economy. They’re proving quite the blockade, has announced Authority (QIA), Doha’s primary January, Qatar agreed with visiting efficient in pulling themselves extra flights to Tehran and Shiraz. sovereign wealth fund, has US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo around.” In December, a luxury cruise ship holdings in Volkswagen, Russian to expand the Al Udeid Airbase, Qatar’s trade with Iran remains link from Doha to Oman and energy giant Rosneft, UK gas which has 10,000 US troops. The relatively low. Tehran’s exports Kuwait was announced. Faisal company National Grid and QIA also announced a 2-year will reach $300 million for the al-Sulaiti, the owner of the Turkey’s biggest poultry producer. increase in its US investments from Iranian year that ends March 20. 145-metre Grand Ferry, said that Qatar’s strategy is both finan- $30 billion to $45 billion. That’s up from $60 million-$70 its 670-vehicle, 870-passenger cial and political. QIA Chairman “There was an impression that million in 2016-17. capacity could replace road access Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrah- Rex Tillerson [secretary of state Adnan Mousapur, chairman of severed by the blockage and that man al-Thani, who is also Qatar’s until March 2018] was on the the Iran Chamber of Commerce, the service might be extended to foreign minister, announced the Saudis’ side and that once he was identified the main exports to Iran. purchase of $500 million in gone, US policy would be tougher Qatar as food and construction Qatar’s search for accommoda- sovereign bonds in Lebanon. This on Qatar,” said the European materials. He also expressed tion with Tehran goes much was an investment in a country security analyst. “With Pompeo disappointment that growth was further back than 2017. It is, in with a 150% debt-to-GDP ratio this turned out to be wrong.” not faster. Iran’s annual exports part, the result of sharing the and where the government is So Qatar’s two-pronged policies to the United Arab Emirates, by world’s largest gas field, known as paralysed by divisions between will continue. They include devel- comparison, are approximately $6 South Pars in Iran and North factions allied to either Saudi oping links with Iran while billion. Turkey has tapped the Dome in Qatar. Doha has been far Arabia or Iran. Qatar also plans to remaining close to Washington. Qatari market since the Saudi-led more successful than Iran in invest in Jordan, Iraq and Sudan. “Doha has several advantages,” blockade, with exports reaching tapping its vast gas reserves, the Bloomberg News recently said the security analyst. “It has Qatar’s two-pronged $2 billion in 2018, 50% higher world’s third largest at 24.9 reported talks between QIA and significant energy resources, very policies will continue. than in 2017. trillion cubic metres. Iran’s Deutsche Bank, a troubled active public relations and isn’t Iranian exports to Qatar are reserves are 33.2 trillion cubic financial institution but still embroiled in Yemen.” They include hampered by payment problems metres but it is Qatar that is the Germany’s biggest lender, to developing links with caused by United States’ financial world’s largest gas exporter with boost its 6.1% holding. Last year, Gareth Smyth is a regular con- sanctions against dollar transac- 27% of the global liquid natural Doha pledged to invest 10 billion tributor to The Arab Weekly. He Iran while remaining tions with Iran but the low level of gas market. euros ($11.4 billion) over five has reported from the Middle East close to Washington. Qatar’s exports to Iran — around Gas is the main source of Doha’s years in Germany. since 1992. February 3, 2019 11 News & Analysis Gulf Hodeidah truce breached, coalition vows to step up pressure

Saleh Baidhani as “a real impediment to the peace process.” Aden Gargash’s tweets urged the in- ternational community to press he Arab coalition fighting the Houthis to stop violations, in support of the Yemeni facilitate aid convoys and move government said it was forward on withdrawal from Ho- T ready to use “calibrated deidah. “Important that UN & force” to drive Houthi rebels out international community take of the port city of Hodeidah. urgent action to press Houthis to “Coalition prepared to use more comply with ceasefire agreement,” calibrated force to prod Houthi he said. compliance with Stockholm agree- Gargash’s statements were made ment,” UAE Foreign Affairs Minis- soon after UN Special Envoy to ter Anwar Gargash said January 30 Yemen Martin Griffiths admitted on Twitter. that application of terms of the Stockholm agreement had met Daunting task. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths (C) listens to an assistant as he stands obstacles. During a stop in rebel- with the Houthi-appointed governor of Hodeidah Muhammad Aiyyash Quhaim, January 29. (Reuters) UAE Foreign Affairs Minister controlled Sana’a, Griffiths said Anwar Gargash said the implementation of the agreement reached in December in on behalf of the Houthis. Gharbani jarric said Lollesgaard, Denmark’s The rebels have launched nu- Houthis were blocking aid could not take place within speci- said the UN envoy was trying to military representative to NATO, merous ballistic missile and drone convoys from leaving fied dates. get warring factions back to the has 30 years of national and inter- attacks at Saudi territory and Yem- Hodeidah and barring ships Qatari-funded Al Jazeera report- negotiating table. national military experience. eni government forces and allied from entering. ed that Griffiths said extending A report from Al Arabiya quoted Lollesgaard is expected to start coalition troops inside Yemen. timetables for implementation of Yemeni government spokesman his mission in February. The coalition has destroyed sever- Gargash said the Iran-allied agreements is “expected because Rajih Badi, as saying that Patrick Meanwhile, the Saudi Royal Air al sites in Sana’a used to stockpile Houthi militia violated the cease- the situation on the ground is Cammaert, who heads the UN Force destroyed a drone launched and launch drones. fire more than 1,000 times and more complex” than expected. group monitoring the ceasefire in by Houthi rebels over the Saudi Malki said an attack against a that, since the agreement, 71 The Hodeidah agreement, which Hodeidah, had returned to the city city of Abha, Al Arabiya reported suspected drone base in Sana’a Yemeni forces had been killed went into effect in mid-December, after the Houthis promised Grif- January 30. Coalition spokesman was an extension of an operation and 534 injured. He claimed there stipulates a full ceasefire, followed fiths to implement the agreement. Turki al-Malki said the drone was begun in mid-January to demol- had been Houthi “mortar attacks by the withdrawal and redeploy- However, Cammaert’s return ap- flying in the direction of civilian ish the “entire network of logis- against food supplies and public ment of rival forces from the city. pears to be temporary. The United areas in Abha. tical capacities and facilities for markets.” Neither has been accomplished. Nations announced that Dan- The coalition’s command drones… and the places where for- Gargash said the Houthis were Yemeni political analyst Siyaf ish Lieutenant-General Michael warned the Houthis “in the strong- eign experts are located.” blocking aid convoys from leaving al-Gharbani said Griffiths was ab- Lollesgaard would replace Cam- est terms” against targeting “civil- Hodeidah and barring ships from sorbing the shock of failure to im- maert, who resigned in late Janu- ian property and civilians,” Malki Saleh Baidhani is an Arab Weekly entering. He described the actions plement the Hodeidah agreement ary. UN spokesman Stephane Du- was quoted as saying. contributor in Yemen. Saudi Arabia ends 15-month campaign against corruption

The Arab Weekly staff them and their subsequent agree- said in the statement. by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Saudi Arabian General Investment ment to settlements.” Saudi authorities on January Ahmed and Crown Prince Moham- Authority Amr al-Dabbagh. However, 56 individuals with 29 announced the suspension of med last May. In November 2017, Saudi officials London unresolved criminal charges were 126 local government employees In January, Bakr bin Laden, for- made public the biggest anti-cor- not given the opportunity to set- across the kingdom on corruption mer chairman of the Saudi Binla- ruption investigation in its history, audi Arabia has ended its tle their cases. The statement said charges. din Group, was released to attend targeting individuals once believed lengthy, high-profile an- eight people refused to settle “de- “They are charged with involve- a funeral in Jeddah. “He is out but untouchable, including current and ti-corruption campaign, spite the existence of evidence ment in a number of cases includ- we’re not sure if it’s for good or former government officials, bil- S which resulted in $106 bil- against them.” They have been ing financial and managerial cor- not,” an anonymous source told lionaire businessmen and members lion in settlements from members referred to the public ruption, abuse of power as well Thomson Reuters. of the royal family. of the royal family, former govern- prosecutor. as other legal and criminal viola- Senior Saudi Binladin Group ex- ment officials and businessmen. “The kingdom will tions,” the Saudi Ministry of Mu- ecutives Saleh and Saad bin Lad- Saudi Crown Prince Moham- continue its efforts nicipal and Rural Affairs said on en had been detained for several Settlements had been med bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, to preserve integrity, Twitter. weeks but were released after all reached with 87 chairman of the anti-corruption combat corruption In the weeks before the an- three men transferred their com- individuals after “their committee, submitted a final com- and empower law nounced end of the anti-corruption bined 36.2% stake in the company confession to the charges.” mittee report January 30 to King enforcement and campaign, high-profile individu- to Saudi Arabia last April. Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the other relevant state als, including -born Saudi Other high-profile detainees re- King Salman issued a royal de- state-run Saudi Press Agency said. bodies so that they tycoon Mohammed al-Amoudi, leased in recent weeks include for- cree November 4, 2017, forming A statement from the court said are able to effective- were released from detention. mer McKinsey and Company part- an anti-corruption task force to settlements had been reached ly practice their role The release of Amoudi, who was ner Hani Khoja, former managing “investigate, issue arrest warrants, with 87 individuals after “their in preserving public estimated in 2017 by Forbes to be director of the Savola Group Sami travel bans and freeze accounts and confession to the charges against funds,” King Salman worth $8.3 billion, was discussion Baroum and former governor of the portfolios,” a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency said. The arrests came after a 3-year investigation resulted in the de- tention at Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton Hotel of 11 princes, a dozen former ministers and four current min- isters, including the former head of the kingdom’s National Guard Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah bin Ab- dulaziz, former Economy Minister Adel Fakieh and billionaire Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal. Prince Mutaib and Prince Al-Waleed have been freed since then. In a May 2017 interview with Al Arabiya TV, Crown Prince Moham- med said King Salman was not sat- isfied with efforts against corrup- tion and made a goal tackling it the day he became king. “He was also not satisfied with the role this (corruption) commit- tee has played. If fighting corrup- tion is not on the top of the agenda, it means the fight is not succeed- ing,” the crown prince said. “No person involved in corruption will survive, whether it is a prince or a Running battle. Cars drive past the Kingdom Centre Tower in Riyadh. (Reuters) minister or whoever.” 12 February 3, 2019 News & Analysis Sudan’s Protests The Sudanese regime is at a dead-end at home and abroad

Mohamed Aboelfadl to benefit from its political exper- tise in dealing with similar crises, especially that Cairo, which is fac- Cairo ing economic problems of its own, has weathered the aftershocks of udanese President Omar al- the difficult austerity measures it Bashir’s attempts to quell put in place, in addition to its ex- demonstrations in the coun- perience in dealing with drawn-out S try have failed. Al-Bashir did protests. not receive the public political sup- In Cairo, al-Bashir claimed dem- port he was expecting from Cairo onstrators had fallen victim to ex- when he visited January 27. A few ternal influence and tried to associ- days before his trip there, al-Bashir ate the protests with the negative was in Doha but so far nothing has connotations of the “,” come his way from there. which is remembered by many in Relentless. Sudanese protesters take part in an anti-government demonstration in Khartoum’s twin He also had high hopes to garner the Arab world for leading to do- city of Omdurman, January 31. (AFP) considerable economic support mestic strife in countries such as from Kuwait, where he hopped to Libya and Syria. He wanted to warn after his visit to Cairo, but got noth- demonstrators that protests might not been affected by what is hap- wide popularity. The protesters say al-Bashir’s ing. lead to civil war. pening in the street. However, the The contacts might have made government could collapse at any Al-Bashir went fishing for sup- Al-Bashir did not identify the problem is that his official hosts things worse. The Sudanese pro- moment. In case the demonstra- port from two rival states — Egypt “external parties,” except perhaps abroad might grow embarrassed tests, which started as spontaneous tions persist, the balance will tip in and Qatar — and then a neutral when he claimed during the early by his visits before their own peo- demonstrations, received partisan favour of the protesters and, sooner one, Kuwait. Through his visits, he days of the protests that the ex- ple because, no matter how hard support. Trade unions and labour or later, al-Bashir could make secu- suggested he was carrying out his iled leader of the Sudan Liberation they try to dodge it, they could be unions jumped on board and ampli- rity errors that would force the in- duties as president under normal Movement, Abdul Wahid Mohamed described as al-Bashir’s supporters. fied the street protests. ternational community to break its circumstances, as if nothing was al-Nur, had received support from Egypt has relatively pre-empted The popular demands went from silence. happening in Sudan. His public Israel. this potential problem after al-Ba- seeking a solution to the economic The options available to al-Bashir statements focused on bilateral and The allegation carried no traction shir’s visit to Cairo. Egyptian Minis- crisis to demanding al-Bashir’s de- are very limited. He must either regional issues and ignored the cri- in the Sudanese street. ter of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shouk- parture. The latter’s promises failed bow to the storm and prepare Su- sis consuming his country. Al-Bashir’s foreign contacts have ry and Intelligence Chief General to calm the street. dan for a post-al-Bashir phase or failed to provide his regime with Abbas Kamel went to Khartoum af- After an initial reaction of shock stand his ground and fight. In either tangible support. The outside sup- ter the outbreak of demonstrations. and fear, the Sudanese regime re- case, his 30-year hold on power is The options available to port it received was limited to calls The Egyptian government urged grouped its political, security and compromised. al-Bashir are very limited. for the preservation of Sudan’s political forces in Egypt to issue a partisan forces but he still lacks Essawi pointed out that the only He must either bow to the unity and stability, which is a diplo- statement of solidarity with the Su- control of the street. Furthermore, suitable solution is to make politi- storm and prepare Sudan for matic way of refusing to condemn danese people and their demands. the longer the crisis lingers, the har- cal concessions that will have im- a post-al-Bashir phase or the demonstrations. With the esca- That way, if the protests in Sudan dier the protesters become, gaining mediate effect in Sudan, foremost stand his ground and fight. lation of the protests, some regimes achieved their objectives, the posi- confidence that al-Bashir has no of which is to dismiss the current fear they will sweep away the cur- tive popular impressions could be external backing on top of his pre- Sudanese government, form a gov- rent government and leave them an asset for Cairo. carious position at home and lack ernment of national unity includ- Atiyya Essawi, an Egyptian spe- with problems with its successor Inside Sudan, al-Bashir has re- of economic solutions that can re- ing the different tendencies in the cialist of Sudanese affairs, said al- government. sorted to old strategies of defunct assure citizens. country, subsidise basic necessi- Bashir’s foreign tour was “a desper- It is likely that the Sudanese re- regimes. He intensified his field Each side of the crisis, mainly ties, such as bread and fuel, release ate attempt to control the internal gime will continue to struggle on visits. He went to Atbara in the al-Bashir and the demonstrators, political detainees and show full situation by seeking support that several fronts without a break- north and South Kordofan in the is betting on the element of time commitment to economic and po- would help to calm the protests through in any one of them. far south. He did not hesitate to believing it plays in its favour. The litical reforms. fuelled by the deteriorating eco- Al-Bashir is conducting internal visit different cities and spoke to Sudanese regime is hoping that the nomic conditions.” and external visits to affirm his po- many supporters, trying to give crowds will get tired of protesting Mohamed Aboelfadl is an Egyptian Essawi said al-Bashir chose Egypt sition and to confirm that he has the impression that he enjoys and grow discouraged. writer. Viewpoint Is there a third surprise in Sudan’s future?

Khairallah Khairallah n 1964 in Sudan, General Why can’t al-Bashir recall the politicians. The latter returned to During every crisis, al-Bashir Ibrahim Abboud was forced 1964 revolt against military rule their squabbles until the next accepted to pay the price to relinquish power to a or the civilised way Dahab military coup, in 1969, this time required for him to stay in power, civilian government. In 1986, handed over power in 1986? led by Nimeiry and his comrades. regardless of what that price was. after the collapse of Jaafar Doesn’t Sudan deserve a third Once again, Sudan went from bad All those who dealt with him Nimeiry’s regime, Major- happy surprise that would spare to worse as Nimeiry and his discovered he is a practical man. IGeneral Abdulrahman Siwar it more bloodshed? regime discovered the benefits of He had no qualms whatsoever. al-Dahab assumed office until Abboud took power from Prime betting on religion by associating He had no qualms about impris- power was transferred to a Minister Abdullah Khalil, who with the Islamists, who had been oning Turabi and would have civilian government. He was a found himself stuck in a political waiting in the wings to seize executed him were it not for the Sudanese officer who believed and economic predicament. power. intercession of former Yemeni the national interest came before There were endless disagree- In 1985, a military man, Dahab, President . his personal desire for power and ments among the political parties emerged. He headed a military Al-Bashir’s latest daring act wealth. in Sudan and even within each council that was handed power. was his trip to Damascus to be These events indicate that party. There was no economic In 1986, power was handed back the first Arab head of state to Sudan remains the country of plan for getting out of the to a civilian government but meet with the pariah Bashar surprises. Will Sudanese Presi- economic crisis. Khalil couldn’t Sudanese politicians still refused Assad since he was rejected by dent Omar al-Bashir produce a find a better exit than to hand to learn from their experiences. his people and the Arab League. third surprise or will he remain over power to the military. From 1986-89, Sudanese That visit was like a curse on prisoner of his Muslim Brother- Since then, there have been politicians and party leaders al-Bashir. He returned to Khar- hood background, which means, several military coups in Sudan, repeated the mistakes of the past toum to find a popular uprising among other things, that he lusts the most recent was the 1989 and bankrupted the country. The waiting. after power and nothing but coup that left al-Bashir as military-civilian alliance Al-Bashir’s actions and deci- power? president. He benefited from the between al-Bashir and Turabi sions reflect his camp’s political Isn’t 20 years in power enough political support of Hassan easily gained power and, since bankruptcy. Has the man run out for a Sudanese military officer al-Turabi, who was representing then, internal conflicts in Sudan of new ideas to cling to power? who knew how to manoeuvre the Muslim Brotherhood and never ceased. After 30 years of monopolising it, since the 1989 military coup to believed that al-Bashir could be From 1989-2019, the date of the why doesn’t he dare take the step stay in the presidency at any cost? used to pursue the Brotherhood’s outbreak of a genuine popular of moving Sudan to a transition Even if that cost was the split of ambitions in Sudan. uprising whose end is unknown, stage? Why can’t he enlist the Sudan and losing its south? Abboud did abuse his power. al-Bashir tried all the manoeu- help of people with economic In 1958, two years after Sudan’s He silenced political dissent, vres that a veteran politician expertise instead of appealing to Why can’t al-Bashir independence, Abboud led the strangled political parties and could exercise. Many politicians, outdated political tricks? recall the lessons of first military coup in Sudanese even cancelled them. In 1964, the who underestimated the skills of In short, why can’t al-Bashir the 1964 revolution or history. He had done it at the Sudanese had had enough and the man who dared kick Osama recall the lessons of the 1964 request of the civilian govern- took to the streets in a real bin Laden out of Sudan, dared revolution or the civilised way the civilised way ment. He himself had nothing to revolution. They shouted with hand over Carlos the Jackal to Dahab handed power to the Dahab handed power offer Sudan except securing the one voice: “To the barracks, you France and dared to engage in civilians in 1986? country internally after partisan insects.” negotiations with the southern- Doesn’t Sudan deserve a third to the civilians in squabbles had led it to bank- The military did withdraw, ers to divide Sudan, were the first happy surprise that would 1986? ruptcy. leaving the field to civilian victims of al-Bashir’s moves. prevent more bloodshed? February 3, 2019 13 News & Analysis Venezuela and the Middle East Wary of similar fate, Erdogan stands with Maduro

Thomas Seibert kara’s ties with Moscow, boosted by cooperation in Syria along with trade agreements and booming Istanbul tourism, sparked concerns in the West that Turkey is turning away n another sign of a growing gap from its decades-old alliance with between Turkey and its tradi- the United States and Europe. tional allies in the West, Turk- At first glance, Turkey’s conserv- I ish President Recep Tayyip ative leader, who heads a ruling Erdogan has thrown his weight be- party with roots in political Islam, hind Venezuela’s embattled leader, and Venezuela’s socialist president Nicolas Maduro. may look like an odd couple. They Erdogan joined Russia, China, are also on opposing sides in the Iran and Syria in defending Madu- Syrian conflict, in which Maduro ro, who is fighting for political sur- backs Syrian President Bashar As- vival after the leader of the legisla- sad and Turkey has been a main ture, Juan Guaido, declared himself sponsor for rebels trying to topple president and was recognised as the leader in Damascus. Venezuela’s legitimate head of However, Erdogan and Maduro state by the US government. Euro- share vital interests, analysts say. pean powers said they would side Turkey backed Maduro even before with Guaido unless Madura agreed the latest crisis in Caracas. “Politi- to soon call elections. cal problems cannot be resolved by “My brother Maduro! Stand tall, punishing an entire nation,” Erdog- we are at your side,” Erdogan told an said last year in reference to US Maduro in a phone call, Turkish sanctions against the Maduro gov- presidential spokesman Ibrahim ernment. Kalin said January 24. He added Howard Eissenstat, a Turkey ex- that Turkey rejected all “coup at- pert at Saint Lawrence University tempts.” in New York and non-resident sen- Kalin spread the hashtag #WeAre- ior fellow at the Project on Middle Mirror plots. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (R) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at MADURO, which became the most East Democracy in Washington, Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas, last December. (AFP) popular trend among Turkish Twit- said Erdogan’s personal worldview ter users. Pro-government media played a big role in Turkish-Vene- drew comparisons between the zuelan relations. Some supporters of the Turkish in the current Venezuelan crisis a cials voiced concern that some of pressure on Maduro and the coup “I think the core has to do with president say Erdogan could be- common echo of Gezi and the 2016 the gold might find its way to Iran attempt against Erdogan in 2016. how personalised Turkish foreign come the target of a US-organised attempted coup — both of which he in violation of sanctions on Iran, policy has become and how fully attempt to unseat him. believes the Americans used to try Bloomberg News reported. it is shaped by President Erdogan’s “In a way, being on Maduro’s side to dislodge him.” Coming less than three months Coming less than three ideological predilections and as- is being on Erdogan’s side,” Fatih That perception has contributed before local elections in Turkey, Er- months before local sumptions,” Eissenstat said via e- Dagistanli, a presenter on Akit TV, to the close ties between the lead- dogan’s support for Maduro and his elections, Erdogan’s mail. “I think that he sees in Madu- a television station that is close to ers of the two countries. Maduro criticism directed against the Unit- criticism directed against ro’s stance a common resistance to the Turkish government, said on a attended Erdogan’s inauguration ed States make sense for the presi- the United States makes Western — and especially American talk show January 26. “If Maduro as Turkey’s president in Ankara last dent domestically as well, given a sense for the president — hegemony.” is sent on his way, they will also year and Erdogan visited Caracas in strong trend of anti-Americanism domestically, given a strong A pro-government observer in wrap up Erdogan and send him off. December. in the country. trend of anti-Americanism Turkey pointed out that Maduro This is the first step of sending off Trade between Turkey and A Turkish poll last year indicated in the country. supported Erdogan when it count- Erdogan.” Venezuela has grown, with Turk- that almost nine out of ten Turk- ed. Erdogan’s message of encour- The Turkish leader often speaks ish data showing the country im- ish respondents said they see the Erdogan, 64, and Maduro, 56, agement for Maduro to “stand of dark plots by outside forces ported $900 million in gold from United States as an enemy. Even share a deep distrust of US poli- tall” reflected “a sense of solidar- to prevent Turkey from gaining Venezuela in the first nine months Turkish observers who are scepti- cies. Both have accused the United ity, since the Venezuelan leader strength as an international power. of the year, Reuters reported. The cal of Erdogan share his rejection States of waging “economic war” expressed solidarity with Turkey Turkish officials linked the Gezi United States slapped sanctions of US policies in Venezuela. “The against their countries. during the July 15, 2016, coup at- riots of 2013 and the coup plot of on Venezuela’s gold trade last No- post-modern coup attempt by the Turkey’s relations with the Unit- tempt,” wrote Burhanettin Duran, 2016 to alleged efforts by the West vember to stop gold from the South USA in Venezuela is unacceptable,” ed States have undergone a series a columnist for the newspaper Dai- to unseat Erdogan. American country being shipped Murat Yetkin, a respected journal- of crises in recent years, while An- ly Sabah. Eissenstat said Erdogan “sees to Turkey for refinement. US offi- ist, commented on Twitter. Viewpoint Turning Venezuela into a Libya-on-the Caribbean

It did not have to be this way. Council authorisation for inter- months. administration — the UN-backed The United States and Venezuela’s vention. Russia and China In October 2011, Qaddafi was Government of National Accord Rashmee neighbours could have increased abstained. captured and killed in a celebra- led by Fayez al-Sarraj. Roshan Lall pressure on the Maduro govern- The NATO initiative had France tion of savagery that appeared to Despite the proliferation of ment to resign in favour of an and Britain in the lead, participa- show Libyans to the world as governments, Libya remains a internationally approved interim tion from , Libya’s former bloodthirsty and lawless. largely ungoverned space, one t one stroke Donald process, backed by the Organisa- colonial master, and the United Subsequently, Libya’s transi- ruled by militias. Trump’s America has tion of American States or the States “leading from behind.” tional government failed to The similarities between made a Libya out of United Nations. Within 3 weeks, the mission went govern. It handed power in August Venezuela tomorrow and Libya Venezuela. It is no There was never any argument from ostentatious concern for the 2012 to a General National past and present go further than justification that the for letting Maduro continue the Libyan people to regime change. Congress, which pursued the gaggle of leaders. Their oil South American impoverishment of millions of his By March 2011, France did for Qaddafi’s supporters and refused sectors may soon start to resemble countryA was already part of the people, as well as the autocratic Libya’s flawed government what to call the promised elections. each other. way to becoming a Caribbean deconstruction of his country’s Trump’s America has done for After polls did take place in June Eight years after the toppling of Tripoli. Whatever happens, the once-thriving multi-party Venezuela’s in 2019. France cut 2014, power was vested in the Qaddafi’s regime, Libya’s oil United States has introduced a democracy. On Maduro’s watch, out the Qaddafi regime and internationally backed House of output has not fully recovered new element of chaos into the Venezuela has suffered terribly, its recognised as Libya’s legitimate Representatives but anti-Qaddafi because of competing militias and tumult that has been the state of once-prosperous economy shot to government the National Transi- militias refused to disarm and a administrative breakdown in Venezuela for several years. pieces, its people starving. tional Council, a discordant group new General National Congress much of the country. Though it By delegitimising Venezuelan Venezuela, which is blessed that agreed only on the need for a appointed itself the legitimate has the world’s ninth-largest oil President Nicolas Maduro and with the biggest oil reserves of any post-Qaddafi era. The United government. From early 2016, reserves, Libya is unable to hailing opposition politician Juan country on Earth, is reduced to States followed suit within a few there has been a third Libyan capitalise on its natural wealth. A Guaido as the rightful leader, unimaginable inflation rates — case in point is Sharara, its largest Trump plunged the country into 1,300,000% in the 12 months oil field, which has been occupied deeper crisis. All the signs point to ending November 2018, a study by by an armed group and has been Venezuela becoming the Western the opposition-controlled closed for two months. Hemisphere’s Libya — a country National Assembly stated. In 2017, In the context of the continuing with more than one government, eight-of-ten Venezuelans sur- chaos, the plea of Mustafa Sanalla, each supported by armed groups veyed by Encovi, an annual head of Libya’s national oil that seek to control the lucrative assessment of living standards company, is worth noting. On oil industry. conducted by Venezuelan univer- January 29, he said foreign powers sities, said they did not have should abandon “rushed unsus- enough food at home. tainable” solutions for his The similarities It was never in doubt that country. between Venezuela Venezuela badly needed a fresh Much the same might be said by start but should Washington Venezuelans for their country. No tomorrow and Libya decide when and how? More to one, certainly not the people, is past and present go the point, the lessons of Libya likely to win a Libya-style tussle further than the should have been learnt. between competing governments. In 2011, Libyan strongman gaggle of leaders. Muammar Qaddafi used dispro- Rashmee Roshan Lall is a Their oil sectors may portionate force to deal with columnist for The Arab Weekly. Her massive public protests and the Deconstruction course. Venezuela’s self-declared interim leader blog can be found at soon start to resemble West’s stated humanitarian Juan Guaido (C) speaks to supporters during a gathering at a public www.rashmee.com and she is each other. concern elicited UN Security plaza in Las Mercedes neighbourhood of Caracas, January 29. (AP) on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 14 February 3, 2019 News & Analysis Lebanon

Limited options. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri (C) stands among supporters after a news conference during which he announced the formation of a new government, January 31. (DPA) Lebanon forms new government after months of deadlock

Simon Speakman Cordall nese people and those living in eco- bollah the Health Ministry and the resentation and shifts within and debted countries in the world. nomic uncertainty, stating: “No one agency’s budget, the fourth largest without Lebanon’s political class Moody’s, the credit ratings agency, can put their head in the sand any- budget in the country. contributing to the delay. in late January downgraded its Tunis more… All the problems are known “For Hezbollah to get the Health sovereign debt, citing uncertain and the causes of the corruption Ministry in particular… has to be Hezbollah’s dominance in progress towards forming a govern- fter nearly nine months and waste and administrative defi- reckoned a win for the party and the new government is ment as a contributing factor. of political horse-trading, ciency are also known.” could also invite serious penalties almost certain to prove Efforts to form a cohesive gov- Lebanon declared it had “The solution is with a clear pro- from Washington in connection divisive, with many ernment in Lebanon may be deter- formed a new government, gramme and bold reforms… and with sanctions legislation,” Rowell mined by the country’s relations A Western countries likely to promising bold reforms intended to developing laws that cannot be de- said. with external actors. kick-start the country’s foundering layed,” Hariri said. Hezbollah’s gains notwithstand- be reluctant to cooperate “It comes back to the old rubric economy and unlock millions of Hezbollah’s dominance in the ing, Hariri retained a broad degree too closely with the Party of Mohamad Chatah, (the econo- dollars in promised loans and aid. new government is almost certain of support in the cabinet. However, of God. mist and diplomat assassinated in The new government reflects to prove divisive, with many West- his former dominance cannot be 2013),” said Nadim Shehadi, an as- much of the May 2018 vote, with ern countries likely to be reluctant assured with discussions on Leba- As negotiations in Beirut dragged sociate fellow at Chatham House. gains by Hezbollah and its allies to cooperate too closely with it. non’s relations with Syria likely to on, corruption and previously “The main role of all of Lebanon’s translating largely unscathed to the “Eighteen of the 30 (cabinet be contentious. agreed reforms went unaddressed. parties should be to avoid the coun- cabinet. members) have political affiliations “More broadly, the military se- “Lebanon was already badly dam- try becoming a regional battlefield.” Lebanese Prime Minister Saad that could fairly be described as curity of the Assad regime and, aged by excessive corruption and With Assad dominant in Syria Hariri must work with Iran-sup- Hezbollah-friendly,” analyst Alex indeed, the entire regional envi- debt with the Central Bank behav- and Lebanon’s economy faltering, ported Hezbollah to deliver re- Rowell said. “It is, indeed, quite ronment has for years now been ing like it was running a state-spon- officials in Beirut must chart a pre- forms, while finding accommoda- something to see Saad Hariri head- moving in the [Hezbollah’s] fa- sored Ponzi scheme. These issues carious course between Western tion over Lebanon’s relations with ing a March 8 [Alliance] cabinet, to vour,” Rowell said. have been exacerbated,” said Firas support and Iranian ire. the Syrian government, which Hez- use the slightly obsolete terminol- The deadlock over forming a gov- Modad, director of MENA Country bollah continues to aid. ogy of the post-2005 environment.” ernment lasted 252 days with the Risk at IHS Markit. Simon Speakman Cordall is a Hariri apologised to the Leba- The new government grants Hez- new system of proportional rep- Lebanon is one of the most in- freelance jouwrnalist. Viewpoint Lebanese cabinet formed but salvation awaits

olitics is very similar to formation of a government, one However, a re-examination of eventually appointed a pro-Syr- playing cards, with he declared was bent on eco- the arduous formation process ian Sunni minister, will further every player dealt cards nomic reform that will ensure warns of the troubles that await convince Arab Gulf countries that Makram Rabah — or political opportu- that Lebanon receives the Hariri, whose compromises and Iran’s grip over Lebanon and its nities — and the pledges of last April’s CEDRE mediocre results at the polls government is beyond question outcome resting on conference. virtually made him hostage to and, above all that, any financial Pevery participant’s ability to Much of the inability of Hariri Hezbollah and their main assistance to the state would end calculate risks and make sound to form his cabinet stemmed Christian allies. up only advancing Iran and decisions that ensure the game from Bassil’s unwavering insist- Bassil, the chief winner from Hezbollah, which are in dire need goes on. ence on having 11 portfolios in Hariri’s concessions, wants to use of funds and thus have turned These simple regulatory the 30-member cabinet, giving this government to pave the way towards pillaging what little perimeters are nowhere to be him a de facto veto right over any towards replacing his father-in- remains of Lebanon’s resources. found in the Lebanese political crucial decision that constitu- law as the next president. Perhaps the most disheartening scene. tionally requires a two-thirds To achieve his childhood aspect of the farce of the govern- The country’s decrepit political majority vote. dream, Bassil will have to ment’s formation is that Hariri’s establishment faltered in forming No sooner had Bassil suppos- cooperate fully with both imminent cabinet is a rehashing a cabinet that would — hypotheti- edly accepted to reconsider his Hezbollah and the Assad regime of previous cabinets that not only cally — steer the country from a request, Hariri was hit by another in Syria, which see Lebanon and failed to implement structural looming financial collapse whose impossible demand from Hezbol- its hollow state as a vehicle to reform but maliciously disre- marks are already visible. lah. It insisted that he grant a bypass the US sanctions and to garded all elements of transpar- Since elections last May, makeshift coalition of six pro- serve their regional aspirations. ency and accountability when Lebanese Prime Minister-desig- Syrian Lebanese parliamentar- Having clinched the Public dispensing public funds and nate Saad Hariri failed repeatedly ians a cabinet position, which Health Ministry, Hezbollah is awarding government contracts. to sway his allies and rivals to Hariri unequivocally rejected. dragging the Lebanese state This fathomless appetite for accept an assortment of cabinet Hariri’s refusal faded after deeper and inviting more sanc- corruption enjoyed by nearly all lineups, making the likelihood of Bassil suggested that this “Sunni” tions that would affect all sectors factions of government and the Bassil, the chief its birth close to impossible. minister be tallied as part of that depend on US aid. primacy of Hezbollah over the The pessimism that has Aoun’s quota and thus the The fact that Hezbollah country’s political system winner from Hariri’s dominated the cabinet formation delicate balance of power would Secretary-General Hassan confirm that the Lebanese concessions, wants to process shifted with Hariri and remain unaffected. This formula, Nasrallah’s personal physician is economic and political salvation use this government Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, coupled with a minor reshuffling the new minister of health will have to wait for better times. Lebanese President Michel of a few cabinet portfolios, led to automatically deprives Lebanon to pave the way Aoun’s son-in-law and political the miraculous birth of what of millions of dollars that subsi- Makram Rabah is a lecturer at towards replacing his heir, declaring a make-or-break seemed to be an unlikely cabinet, dises the Lebanese government’s the American University of Beirut week for the government. one that all sides involved, medication programme. and author of “A Campus at War: father-in-law as the Accordingly, the evening of despite reservations, state If this was not enough, Hezbol- Student Politics at the American next president. January 31 saw Hariri declare the optimism about. lah, forcing its will on Hariri, who University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” February 3, 2019 15 News & Analysis Israel Hamdallah’s resignation reflects Palestinian divisions

Yousef Alhelou

London

he resignation of Palestin- ian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah sparked new T tensions between Fatah and Hamas. The step was intended to allow for a new government primarily made up of factions of the Pales- tine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and does not include Hamas. The change in government was recom- mended by the Fatah Central Com- mittee but it reflected long-existing divisions between the two feuding sides. Hamdallah, an independent tech- nocrat, has been serving as care- taker prime minister until a new cabinet is formed, on directions of Palestinian President . Hamdallah led the West Bank-based Fatah’s reconciliation efforts with Hamas. He formed the first government in mid-2013 and a government of “national consen- sus” a year later. Possible successors to Hamdal- lah as prime minister include Fatah members Mohammad Shtayyeh, Saeb Erekat and Azzam al-Ahmad. Fatah argues that the goal of the new government is to advance to- wards parliamentary elections and encounter “big” challenges — Israe- li-US policies — facing the Palestin- ian cause. While Hamdallah urged Hamas to Endgame. Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah (L) waves to supporters in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, January 28. (Reuters) take part in the new government — although Fatah officials said Hamas has not been invited to do so — Ha- any future government without not Hamas. tion and, a year later, seized control government. mas did not take Hamdallah’s resig- national consensus,” said Hamas Abbas seems wary of Hamas of Gaza, isolated itself after fail- Hamas has two options: give in to nation kindly. spokesman Sami Abu Zurhi. gaining international recognition ing to implement various agree- Abbas’s terms or risk being isolat- Dissolving the national consen- through receiving foreign officials ments. Hamas, which is not part of ed. It is unknown whether Abbas’s Abbas seems wary of sus government was the latest step and financial support from Qatar the PLO, argues that Abbas, whose measures can end Hamas’s “stub- under Israeli approval and facilita- 4-year term as president officially bornness” — as Fatah describes it — Hamas gaining by Abbas to pressure Hamas in Gaza. Other moves include punitive tion. expired in 2009, is seeking to estab- or if they would further complicate international recognition economic measures against Gaza, Hamas and Fatah signed a recon- lish a “Fatah government” to serve the political situation. through receiving foreign withdrawing Fatah employees from ciliation deal in Cairo two years ago his personal interests. What is certain is that Palestin- officials and financial the Rafah crossing and dissolving that included plans for the Palestin- The constant exchange of accusa- ians need national unity in the face support from Qatar under the legislative council. ian Authority to resume governing tions for the past 12 years reflects of mounting challenges, not least Israeli approval and Abbas seeks to assert that he is in Gaza and control the strip’s cross- the deep distrust between the two from Israel under Prime Minister facilitation. still in charge of Palestinian poli- ings into Egypt and Israel. Disputes factions. The divisions threaten to Binyamin Netanyahu and the Unit- tics and hopes the steps would help over power-sharing hampered pro- widen the split between the West ed States under President Donald “Fatah has no legal right to form Fatah take control of Gaza from gress towards full implementation Bank and Gaza. Trump. a new government and its practices Hamas. He has repeatedly insisted of the agreement. Abbas has two weeks to select a are a coup against the democratic that the PLO is the legitimate repre- Fatah argues that Hamas, which new prime minister, who would Yousef Alhelou is a Palestinian process. There is no legitimacy for sentative of the Palestinian cause, won the 2006 parliamentary elec- then have three weeks to form a journalist living in London.

Viewpoint Israeli foreign policy unlikely to change under Netanyahu’s challenger

enny Gantz, a former Gantz enters the fray with a media institutions” was On the Palestinian territories, head of the Israel couple of small advantages. First, denounced. Gantz promised a Gantz attacked the “payment of Defence Forces, he is a military man, an automatic “moral government” that would protection cash in suitcases to opened his campaign degree of credibility in a society “show zero tolerance for corrup- murderous gangs” — a reference Kyle Orton for prime minister in which the military and intelli- tion of any kind.” to Netanyahu facilitating Qatar’s January 29 with a gence services have an exalted Corruption is a very powerful funding of Hamas — and hinted at Bspeech setting out his pro- status because of their role in issue in Israel and not just a return to targeted assassinations gramme. protecting a country long imper- because Netanyahu is under of Hamas leaders. Gantz voiced Gantz was swiftly denounced illed and under siege. indictment for it. Under Netan- support for the policy of outreach by Israeli Prime Minister Biny- Second, he is untainted by the yahu’s leadership, there has been to Arab and African governments amin Netanyahu as a “leftist” but raucous partisan fighting of a rapid expansion of the black in lieu of a Palestinian settlement. there is no sign of that in what is Israeli politics. market, particularly in sectors Gantz said he would “strive for known of Gantz and for good Third and related, Gantz is a such as technology. Gantz, peace” but would not wait on it. reason. fresh face and, after the long however, has questions tainting He will work to “shape a new The Israeli left dominated tenure of Netanyahu, he is him on this matter. reality.” government from the birth of the attractive to some voters just Gantz’s security-technology “We will strengthen the settle- state until the late 1970s and then because of that. start-up, Fifth Dimension, had to ment blocs and the Golan Heights, returned in the 1990s, making the Gantz opened his speech by shut down last year when its lead from which we will never retreat. Oslo Accords its signature policy. appealing to that advantage. funder, Russian oligarch Viktor The Jordan Valley will remain our The resulting peace offers to “Politics is ugly and the public Vekselberg, was hit with US eastern security border… United Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in arena has become poisoned,” he sanctions. The influence of Jerusalem… will grow — and will 2000 and 2001 resulted in a war said. It was on the domestic front Kremlin-linked figures over remain forever the capital of… the that killed 1,000 Israelis. that Gantz drew major distinc- Israeli politics has grown since state of Israel,” he said. As the second intifada wound tions with Netanyahu. the 1990s alongside the Russian Gantz’s apparent commitment down in 2004, the Palestinians The right-left and secular- Jewish population. to the settlement enterprise was were no closer to a homeland, Orthodox struggle “rips us apart” At the time Fifth Dimension underlined by former Defence Arafat was dead and so was the and Netanyahu exploits it, said went bust it was in the process of Minister Yoshe Ya’alon, who Israeli left, which was perceived Gantz, who pledged to abandon being sold to NSO Group, the joined Gantz’s ticket. “Of course to have endangered the state with divisiveness and work with all controversial software company not,” Ya’alon bluntly stated when its naivety. Since then, Israelis communities, including margin- accused of helping regional asked if Gantz would accede to a have prioritised security and been alised groups and ethnic minori- dictatorships spy on dissidents. two-state settlement. averse to taking risks for peace. ties, to create a “united, unified, Turning to foreign policy, the In short, a Gantz administration Indeed, support for peace in a cohesive society.” only possible distinction was that is presenting itself as a domesti- Gantz is a fresh conventional sense — the two- Gantz appealed to Israel’s Gantz hinted at moves to Netan- cally more compassionate and face and, after the state solution — is fading on both strong egalitarian ethos by yahu’s right. clean government that would long tenure of sides. attacking Netanyahu’s preten- Speaking directly to Iran’s carry out the Netanyahu foreign This is the political environ- tious presidential style, saying his leaders, Gantz said: “I will thwart policy, only more so and more Netanyahu, he is ment in which Gantz is trying to approach would be that of “a your plots in the north [through competently. attractive to some unseat Netanyahu. It is, there- national government and not a Hezbollah in Lebanon], south [in fore, no surprise Gantz is tacking monarchy.” Gaza] and anywhere else in the Kyle Orton is a Middle East analyst. voters just because to the right and Netanyahu is Netanyahu’s “incitement Middle East.” Gantz added: “The Follow him on Twitter: of that. trying to tie him to the left. against the judicial, cultural and regional rampage has ended.” @KyleWOrton. 16 February 3, 2019 Debate Turkey’s Elections Turkey’s Kurds are sacrificing election wins but to what end?

preparation for the task of maintaining Erdogan’s hold on power. That the YSK categorically Yavuz Baydar rejected complaints about voter registration was considered confirmation of fears expressed about the prospective vote, the opposition’s allegation that he race is on. With less neither Erdogan nor the AKP will than 60 days until lo- let go of power is going viral. cal elections in Turkey, Erdogan is under increasing the mood — and it pressure due to worsening is dark — is that of a economic prospects but he seems political dogfight. as determined as ever to run TThe annual Social and Political the election campaign using his Trends in Turkey survey by trademark tactics of polarisation. Istanbul’s Kadir Has University He has tried to keep the secular indicated that one-in-five citizens main opposition Republican said they want to emigrate for People’s Party (CHP) from good and one-third of the ruling cooperating at the local level Justice and Development Party’s with the pro-Kurdish People’s voters agree the system has Democratic Party (HDP). The become more authoritarian than crackdown on the HDP’s leaders ever. and representatives is escalating. For the first time in more Blocking free debate as much as than a decade, the economy he can, Erdogan’s priority is to — rather than terrorism — tops dispel any notion the results of voters’ agenda. Approval of the March 31 local elections can both Turkish President Recep be interpreted as a referendum on Tayyip Erdogan and his party has his — already entrenched one-man dropped considerably, although — rule. the core base of the Justice and By any measure, the HDP is Development Party (AKP) remains a political hot potato for the Escalating crackdown. Supporters of pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party argue loyal. Anti-American sentiment is secular-nationalist opposition with riot police during a protest in solidarity with the jailed lawmaker Leyla Guven, at 82% and the media are the least alliance of the CHP and IYI Party. January 12. (Reuters) trusted institution. The alliance is weak in the mainly The political dogfight, Kurdish south-eastern provinces however, is mainly regarding the but fears that any move to close After internal brainstorming cities will cast their vote against opposition’s view of Erdogan ranks with the HDP elsewhere sessions, the party announced it the oppressors,” a top HDP figure and his ultra-nationalist ally, the would make it a soft target. would not nominate candidates in said. Nationalist Movement Party’s Erdogan is masterful in his use of the key cities of Istanbul, Ankara, I am not sure of that. Given the massive systemic engineering. the Turkish nationalism card. Mersin, Adana, Antep, Urfa and political engineering by those A high number of what have Still, given that the race is Izmir. Almost all of them have in powers, the most realistic been called “fake” voters — some neck and neck in the big cities an HDP voter base but, with the forecast would be of yet another aged more than 120 years — and in western Turkey, the decision, the pro-Kurdish party’s disappointment for Turkey’s have been discovered in many opposition is anxious to attract urban support remains afloat. disunited opposition. districts. There is also, as some HDP voters. If the main, so- This strategy runs some risks. However, one point is clear: The legal experts say, the unlawful called greater municipalities are For the first time, the traditionally HDP’s self-sacrifice in this election extension of tenure of the won by Erdogan’s opponents, secular and Kurdish voters are so is a final act of despair. After April Supreme Electoral Council (YSK). it will not turn the clock back frustrated with the political class 1, there won’t be another election This is seen by some to be towards democratisation but it that there is a strong undercurrent in Turkey until 2022. will change things somewhat, of disinclination to vote at all. Turkey’s political elites need to perhaps opening the door to a There is a high percentage of boldly and democratically tackle For the first time in more slight softening of support for the undecided voters among them. the Kurdish question at home. than a decade, the economy president. The HDP, however, seems Against this background, the confident. ”We trust our Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish — rather than terrorism — HDP’s recent move can only be supporters and we shall see to journalist and regular columnist tops voters’ agenda. considered a cunning gambit. it that up to two-thirds in those for The Arab Weekly. Turkish electoral priority: ideology or economics?

foreign political crisis to distract rationality dominates the country. changes despite concerns people from their economic Some might argue that Turkey is over electoral fairness. During woes. The ruling AKP has tried to an authoritarian country in which most elections in the Cold War Gokhan Bacik provoke sensitive issues with the fair elections are impossible. period, Turkey had only one expectation that identity politics Notwithstanding this reality, the television station and one radio might overshadow the economic magnitude of the economic crisis channel, both controlled by the problems but these efforts failed, is an objective reason to expect government, but it could not stop which indicates that the depth of the AKP to lose serious support. people from voting for change. urkey’s local elections the economic crisis is greater than Propaganda and media control Thus, if the AKP keeps its March 31 offer an op- the AKP’s ability to play identity are crucial in distorting fair electoral support in the local portunity to determine politics. elections. However, real problems, elections, this could not be which rationality — The economic crisis has especially deep economic explained merely based on economics or ideol- emerged as the type of dynamic troubles, can defy propaganda the authoritarian regime. The ogy — reigns in the in Turkish politics that would and Turkey’s economic crisis is consolidation of an ideological Tcountry. normally trigger a change. If the pervasive in the daily life of its rationality must also be credited. Given that Turkey is in a deep AKP survives these elections citizens. Given that the economic crisis economic crisis, the key question with no major losses, it would Turkey has had elections in in Turkey is an objective fact, is whether Turkish President be apparent that an ideological the past in which voters made economic rationality presumes Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice that the AKP’s votes in the and Development Party (AKP) will 2019 local elections should be lose support. noticeably lower than the 42.6% If the AKP maintains its strong the party received in June 2018. electoral backing the elections To give a comparative would prove that the party’s perspective, the AKP’s vote supporters follow an ideological share in the 2009 local elections, rationality, not an economic one. which happened during a global The Turkish economy is economic crisis, was 38.8%. performing poorly in nearly If the AKP survives the March every key metric: inflation, 31 vote with no major loss despite unemployment, bankruptcies the economic crisis, it would and exchange rates. There are mean the ultimate expectation serious problems in the supply of AKP supporters is that chain of essential food items, Erdogan continues to follow his such as potatoes and onions. The Islamisation agenda. As long as magnitude of the economic crisis the AKP does that, voters will could alter electoral behaviour. keep supporting it, even while the Unlike during previous economy teeters on the verge of elections, there is no domestic or collapse.

Gokhan Bacik teaches political Economic rationality presumes science at Palacky University. His that the AKP’s votes in the 2019 research interests include modern local elections should be Middle East, Islam and politics Ideological politics. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cheer and Turkish politics. This article noticeably lower than the 42.6% during a meeting of the ruling Justice and Development Party to announce candi- first appeared on ahvalnews.com the party received in June 2018. dates for local elections, last November. (Reuters) and is reprinted with permission. February 3, 2019 17 Debate Iran Tehran’s not-so-mixed signals to Israel

the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). At the very least, Israel would tarnish the prestige Ali Alfoneh of Hezbollah and the IRGC if they don’t retaliate to its attacks. It is out of the question for Tehran to leave Syria, after all the blood and treasure sacrificed to ebanese Hezbollah keep Syrian President Bashar Assad Secretary-General in power, as well as to establish a Hassan Nasrallah has a permanent military presence in warning for Israeli Prime that country and open a potential Minister Binyamin Net- front against Israel. And prestige anyahu. does matter to the IRGC and LIn an interview aired January Hezbollah. 25 by Al Mayadeen television, The Britain-based Syrian Nasrallah counselled: “Be Observatory for Human Rights said cautious. Don’t continue what 21 people, most of them Iranian you are doing in Syria. Don’t nationals, were killed in the latest miscalculate and don’t drag Israeli strikes in Syria. the region into a war or a major In Iranian media, however, there confrontation.” was no mention of the fatalities or Then he jokingly added: “I’m even of the attack. Hezbollah and telling the Israelis: It’s in your the IRGC have stopped announcing interest that we have precision the funeral services in Lebanon missiles so we don’t miss the and Iran for fighters killed in Israeli military targets and civilians are bomb raids. Even so, how long can harmed!” the IRGC and Hezbollah remain The fallout of Nasrallah’s silent? comments was interesting. In the Mayadeen interview, In the Tehran media, Iranian Nasrallah said he was silent so as analysts such as Sabah Zangeneh, “not to feed” an “Israeli publicity emphasised Nasrallah was stunt.” But for how long? This speaking as Hezbollah leader and leaves open the risk of Hezbollah not on Iran’s behalf. However, retaliation against Israel on Zangeneh also said Hezbollah’s Tehran’s behalf to escape the cycle “response” to Israel would “not of passivity and inaction in the face be proportional” but “beyond” of sustained IDF bombardment of proportional. Syria. Iranian Admiral Ali Shamkhani, Is another war between Loose cannon. A Shia Hezbollah supporter stands on a rocket Supreme National Security Council Hezbollah and Israel imminent? launcher in Nabatieh with a poster of Hezbollah leader Sayyed secretary and adviser to Supreme Probably not. Hassan Nasrallah in the background. (Reuters) Leader , on January Tehran, after all, primarily sees 29 insisted Iran “has no intention Hezbollah’s arsenal of Iranian to increase” the range of its hand, it’s threatening war and of its missiles. missiles as a deterrent to Israeli missiles. a disproportionate response to The background to the seemingly attacks against Iran’s nuclear At first glance, Tehran would any provocation but then it’s also different signals is understandable. facilities. appear to be sending mixed trying to project moderation. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) Once Hezbollah is engaged in signals to Israel, the United States Tehran’s message may not is not only actively engaged in war, it would no longer be possible and the Europeans. On the one be quite so mixed. There is a sustained bombing campaign to talk of a deterrence but he who not necessarily a discrepancy against Iranian and allied positions pays the piper calls the tune and, between Nasrallah’s warning in Syria, it openly admits to when push comes to shove, the He who pays the piper calls and Shamkhani’s assurances. So carrying out the attacks. IRGC may ask Nasrallah to retaliate the tune and, when push long as Iran’s ally, the Lebanese These attacks may force Iran against Israel. comes to shove, the IRGC Hezbollah, possesses Iran-made out of Syria, luring Iran into missiles, there is little need for counterattack. This would allow Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at may ask Nasrallah to Tehran to further alienate the Israel to escalate the conflict the Arab Gulf States Institute in retaliate against Israel. Europeans by increasing the range and inflict even greater blows on Washington. Iran’s reform camp is in crisis

reformist and adviser to former Guardian Council, they argue, re- outcome of elections, then what is President , formists relinquished their right to the point of holding them?” Shahir said: “Unfortunately, Mr Rohani’s introduce genuine candidates and Not all reform activists embrace Shahidsaless second term has been extremely were forced into forging alliances an election boycott. Zibakalam ignorant [about the demands] of with others, such as Rohani, who said he would vote despite the the 24 million people who make only nominally represent them. limitations imposed by the system. up Iranian civil society. Most of Mohammad Reza Khatami, Mohsen Armin, a senior member of the reformists believe that he no younger brother of the former the reform movement and former ranian President Hassan longer wants to interact [with the president and one of the leaders of deputy speaker of parliament, Rohani is hardly a reformist. reform movement].” the reform movement, said: “I’m argued that reformists should not He was the supreme leader’s Four years ago, in clear reference not supposed to sign on to what- abandon the ballot box because confidante and his represent- to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard ever decision these [hard-line] that would allow a sweeping vic- ative in the Iranian Supreme Corps, Rohani said: “Wherever gentlemen make.” tory by hardliners. Instead, he said, National Security Council for guns, money, newspapers and When asked if he worried that a pressure should be applied on the I23 years, from its inception until propaganda are joined, one can boycott of elections could lead to Guardian Council to accept the his election as president in 2013. be confident that corruption will the emergence of another Ah- movement’s candidates. Rohani escaped unscathed from arise. Even Abuzar and Salman madinejad, he replied: “I have no As Iran’s economy suffers from the 2009 controversy-marred [allies of Prophet Mohammad] doubt that pressure on the reform- US sanctions, mismanagement and re-election of his predecessor, would have become corrupt under ists and activists will increase but rampant corruption, the mount- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, an elec- an organisation that accumulated today we are not living in a world ing poverty and stress have led tion that produced numerous different aspects of power.” where suppressing the media or Iranians to vent their anger at the political casualties in the reform The days of such radical state- throwing people in jail will lead system via social media outbursts, camp. ments from Rohani have long since to an extinction [of the reform strikes and scattered street pro- Rohani emerged intact and in a passed. camp].” tests. If influential reform leaders good position to run as a consen- Rohani is not alone in disap- Abbas Abdi, one of Iran’s most boycott elections, a widescale sus reformist-pragmatist candi- pointing reformists. The “Hope influential reformists, predicted social media campaign could para- date in 2013. In that presidential Fraction” in the Iranian parliament that “if today we were going to lyse the vote, seriously damaging election, and again in his 2017 was supposed to represent the have an election under the same the legitimacy of the political sys- campaign, Rohani took a radical, reform movement but has been rules [i.e. the Guardian Council vet- tem and negatively affecting Iran’s reformist stance against hardlin- almost completely passive. ting candidates under the concept relations with Europe. ers to mobilise the social base of , a prominent of beneficent oversight], reformists Khatami said: “If the nezam Iranian reformers. reformer and political activist, will introduce no candidate.” (establishment) insists on its Since 2017, however, he has warned that it cannot be assumed Saeed Hajjarian, often credited mistakes… [and] reform fails, the gradually but assuredly distanced that voters will be as motivated to as the father of the reform move- society will move towards over- himself from the reformist camp go to the ballot box in parliamenta- ment in Iran, recently said: “[For throwing the system.” by adopting a policy of compro- ry elections in 2020 and presiden- reformists], the way elections are mise with the conservatives. tial elections in 2021 as they were currently run is comparable to Shahir Shahidsaless is an Abdullah Naseri, a prominent in the past. begging for charity or begging for Iranian-Canadian political analyst Leaders of the reform movement power.” and co-author of “Iran and the Rohani is not alone in argue that, if the trend continues, He argued that “the currency of United States: An Insider’s View on the movement may lose relevance. the political bazaar is power” and the Failed Past and the Road disappointing reformists. The From their perspective, the crisis “if you don’t have that currency, to Peace.” Follow him on Twitter: “Hope Fraction” in the Iranian began when they surrendered to it is best to not enter that market @SShahidsaless. This article the vetting of candidates by the ul- until you gain it… If you do, beg- first appeared on https://www. parliament has been almost tra-conservative Guardian Council. ging will be your only choice… If atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ completely passive. Out of fear of being rejected by the power never changes hands as an iransource. 18 February 3, 2019 News & Analysis East West US trying to salvage financing of Palestinian security forces

Thomas Frank dollars to American plaintiffs. “The government of Palestine unam- biguously makes the choice not to Washington accept such assistance,” he wrote. US courts have routinely dis- rodded by the Israeli gov- missed lawsuits against the Pales- ernment, US officials are tinian Authority and the Palestine trying to change a law that Liberation Organisation (PLO), P would end all remaining fi- holding they were immune to li- nancial aid to the Palestinian Au- ability under US law. The lawsuits thority, including funding for Pal- accused the groups of facilitating estinian Authority security forces. terror attacks that killed or injured The US Anti-Terrorism Clarifica- Americans. tion Act, which went into effect The new law effectively eliminat- February 1, aims to help Americans ed such immunity by stipulating sue the Palestinian Authority in that any country accepting US aid US courts for alleged acts of terror. consents to being subject to Ameri- However, in an apparent unintend- can courts. ed consequence, the measure led The Trump administration is Palestinian officials to refuse pay- trying to find a way to continue ment of $60 million the US govern- financially supporting the secu- ment has given each year to Pales- rity forces and is receiving support tinian security forces. from Israel, an unidentified Israeli official told the Washington Post. Jewish-American groups Israel and the United States are joined the effort to persuade concerned about weakening the the White House and the US security forces, which play a vital role in maintaining order in the Pal- Congress to maintain estinian territories and preventing security funding. attacks against Israelis. The security funding is one of the The US aid is “the glue that has last pieces of US monetary aid to helped ensure the security coor- the Palestinians since US President dination continues and that has Vital role. Palestinian security forces stand guard outside a hospital in Ramallah in the occupied Donald Trump cut off contribu- successfully thwarted terrorist West Bank. (Reuters) tions to Palestinian humanitarian attacks,” Dan Shapiro, a former and governance projects last year US ambassador to Israel, told the since the end of the second intifada wrote January 28 in the Hill news- The law grew out of a 2016 court and ended US support of the UN Post. “It is also a political signal in 2005, the Palestinian Authority paper that the US law “will harm Is- decision that voided a $655 mil- agency that aids Palestinian refu- that shows the Palestinian security Security Forces had been “restruc- raeli security” and “undermine US lion verdict against the Palestin- gees. forces and Palestinian people that tured, rehabilitated and profes- foreign policy” while the Trump ian Authority and the PLO in a suit Palestinian Prime Minister Rami the US is no longer a partner.” sionalised, in no small part because administration develops a Middle brought by ten US families who Hamdallah told US Secretary of Jewish-American groups joined of American assistance.” East peace plan. suffered during terrorist attacks in State Mike Pompeo in a January 18 the effort to persuade the White The forces have worked with Is- “The Palestinian security force Israel from 2002-04. letter that the Palestinian Author- House and the US Congress to rael to stop Palestinian attacks and works closely with Israel to main- Last year, the US Supreme Court ity “no longer wishes to accept any maintain security funding. received praise from the Israel De- tain law and order in Palestinian declined to hear the case and the form of assistance” from the Unit- The Israel Policy Forum, an ad- fence Forces. cities and foil terrorism. Israeli se- verdict was vacated. Two months ed States because it does not want vocacy group in New York that Debra Shushan, policy director curity chiefs are unequivocal about later, Congress passed the Anti- to face possible court judgments supports US aid to the Palestinians, at Americans for Peace, which is the importance of this security co- Terrorism Clarification Act with lit- ordering the payment of millions of wrote in a recent blog posting that, tied to the Israeli peace movement, ordination,” Shushan wrote. tle debate or opposition. Viewpoint Beware of Westerners bearing gifts

ith a Bible in one 9/11 rationale for Western interven- hand and the tion — saving the peoples of the US Constitution region from the atrocities of Islam’s Geoffrey Aronson in the other, US extremists. Secretary of State In the last four decades, foreign Mike Pompeo de- armies have occupied four Arab Wclared in Cairo: “America is a force capitals — Beirut, Tripoli, Baghdad for good in the Middle East.” and Kuwait City — and citizens This is not Barack Obama’s have challenged rulers in many America, Pompeo said. Obama others, a testament to both the got it all wrong “in falsely seeing enduring attraction of the region in ourselves as a force for what ails Western councils and the pervasive the Middle East,” he said. weakness of a region that invites With the evangelical Pompeo, such adventurism. however, the Trump administra- The “forever wars” of the post tion has a direct line to the angels. 9/11 generation show no sign of Armed with God’s Truth — the abating. If Pompeo is correct, official transcript used a capital Washington, with or without T — Pompeo insisted that Washing- the president himself, will stake ton has recovered from Obama’s its claim as a force for good by misguided flirtation with the An- bringing the fight to its enemies tichrist. The United States, he as- with a virulence and commitment sured his audience at the American unequalled by its hapless prede- University of Cairo, will no longer cessors. “partner with enemies.” Under Direct line to the angels. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks to Victory, however, even with God (AP) Trump’s leadership, Washington students at the American University in Cairo, January 10. on your side, is not preordained. will set everything right, Pompeo The team on the other side of the implied. city: “Our armies do not come into tions and ideals that Maude’s chessboard has a vote in the out- Even as US forces from Afghani- your cities and lands as conquerors remarks embody continue to come. Indeed, America’s conquest stan to Syria prepared to obey the or enemies but as liberators. It is inspire new generations of Western of Iraq in 2003 is the best and most president’s directive to retreat, [Britain’s] wish that you should occupiers and administrators from instructive example of the perils of Pompeo’s solution to the short- prosper even as in the past.” Kabul to Baghdad, Mosul and the kind of self-deception champi- comings of US policy in the region, The commitments embodied in Raqqa. oned by Washington. both real and imagined, is more Maude’s gracious words proved This history is forever etched “The war produced profound not less American intervention. more difficult to establish than to into the national consciousness consequences,” concludes a The idea that the West’s pres- declare. of the region’s people. Foreign recent two-volume report on the ence is a selfless sacrifice by those His speech was drafted by one occupation has assumed many Iraq conflict by the US Army. “An offering the gift of progress is as of the modern era’s most self- forms since Napoleon. The British emboldened and expansionist Iran old as the modern Euro-American interested imperial architects, Sir and French administered Egypt’s appears to be the only victor. Iraq, romance with intervention. Napo- Mark Sykes, the famous co-author affairs before British forces oc- the traditional regional counterbal- leon’s occupation of Egypt lasted of the secret treaty that carved up cupied Cairo in 1882 and remained ance for Iran, is at best emasculat- only three years but established much of the Middle East between pre-eminent until the Suez crisis. ed, and at worst has key elements a pattern of foreign rule and the the war’s victors — London and The Mandate system imposed after of its government acting as proxies parallel mobilisation of local oppo- Paris — and set the stage for today’s World War I created a contest be- for Iranian interests.” sition that has repeated itself with miseries. tween foreign rule and local lead- Washington can choose to waste sobering regularity over the last Maude died from cholera within ers that was resolved only when capital and essential resources in America’s conquest of two centuries. months of his announcement, a the occupiers’ flag was lowered. “forever wars” but who can blame Iraq in 2003 is the best Like the United States today, telling metaphor for the West’s The defeat of this system by lo- the long-suffering people of the and most instructive Britain in its imperial heyday also bittersweet sojourn in the Orient. cal nationalists after World War II Arab world who continue to pay fashioned itself as a “force for Britain ruled Iraq for decades — a set the stage for military regimes the price of the not-so-benevolent example of the perils good.” British General Stanley “forever occupation” of unantici- whose power has withstood all legacy inspired by this agenda? of the kind of self- Maude on March 19, 1917, pro- pated consequences that spanned challenges — from both the ballot claimed “to the people of Bagh- two world wars and helped create box and the battlefield. Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resident deception championed dad” after the entry of the victori- a political system that produced To this list of good deeds, one scholar at the Middle East Institute by Washington. ous British Army to that Ottoman Saddam Hussein. Yet the aspira- must now add Washington’s post in Washington. February 3, 2019 19 News & Analysis East West

Lebanon’s refugees given priority for resettlement in Europe, Canada

Samar Kadi “This is because many resettle- ment countries know the needs in Lebanon and are aware that the Beirut refugee population is extremely high when compared to the local ore than three years af- population, much more than in ter Europe witnessed other host countries,” Tra said. the largest influx of Canada has resettled the largest M migrants and refugees number of refugees from Lebanon since World War II, causing ten- since 2015. In 2016, Ottawa signifi- sions among EU members, people cantly increased its intake as part fleeing conflicts and economic of a regional effort to resettle Syr- hardships are still trying to reach ian refugees. Europe, though at a lesser rate. “European countries including New home. A Syrian woman refugee and her two children attend a community gathering to welcome The number of clandestine arriv- Norway, Sweden, the United King- them in Queensland, Nova Scotia, Canada. (AP) als in Europe in 2018 fell 92% com- dom and France are also taking ref- pared to the peak immigration rate ugees from Lebanon. We resettled of more than 1 million in 2015 but even to Argentina and Chile. Over We married here in Lebanon last ues towards Europe causing divi- a 2017 arrangement between Italy refugees from the Middle East are the last two years, refugees were year. I want to join her now,” Ibra- sions among EU members on how and Libya. increasingly seeking legal channels resettled in 24 different countries,” him said. to handle the flow of migrants. A report by the European Border for resettlement in third countries, Tra said. “We cannot live here anymore IOM said more than 5,757 peo- and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) the International Organisation for “Many countries are making an and there is no going back. I have ple had arrived in Europe since the attributed the decline in the num- Migration (IOM) said. effort to help resettle the refugees. lost everything I owned in Daraa beginning of 2019 and 207 died or ber of immigrants to the collapse The largest number of refugees Resettlement is a humanitarian — my business, my property and were reported missing while cross- of access across the Mediterranean granted resettlement is from Leba- and a protection tool but it is also my house, which was razed to the ing the Mediterranean. However, towards Italy. The “closed ports” non. The vast majority of those are a way of sharing responsibility be- ground. I am looking forward to my 2018 witnessed a drop in arrivals policy implemented by the ruling Syrian nationals, in addition to Ira- tween resettlement countries and life in Canada. It will be a different with 144,166 migrants, compared right-wing coalition in Italy is one qis and Palestinians and other na- host countries like Lebanon where life from what we had before.” to 186,768 in 2017. Also 2,297 peo- of the factors for the reduction of tionalities, said Mariella Tra, IOM the refugee population is so large ple died or were reported missing illegal immigrants. Operations officer in Lebanon. and a big burden.” Mariella Tra, IOM Operations in 2018, compared to 3,139 in 2017. Italy has refused to allow human- “People who have been reset- Lebanon plays host to approxi- officer in Lebanon UNHCR said the largest group of itarian ships to dock in its ports in a tled from Lebanon in 2018 are mately 970,000 Syrian refugees migrants who arrived in Europe in bid to force its European partners People who have been resettled around 50,000 and the year before registered with UNHCR. At its 2018 were from the west African to share the burden of arrivals. from Lebanon in 2018 are it was around 20,000. In total, we peak, the figure was 1.2 million in country of (13,068) fol- The underlying factors that around 50,000 and the year had some 75,000 departures from 2015 but Lebanese officials esti- lowed by Morocco (12,745) and have led to more than 1.8 million before it was around 20,000. Lebanon in the past three years mate the actual number at no less Mali (10,327). Syrians were the migrants heading to Europe since under the auspices of IOM, includ- than 1.5 million. fourth biggest group (9,839), fol- 2014 have not gone away. Violence, ing those who travelled under fam- Khalil Ibrahim, a 34-year-old Ibrahim was waiting to go lowed by Afghans (7,621) and Iraqis insecurity and economic crises ily reunification programmes,” Tra refugee from Daraa in southern through screening at Focus, the (7,333). persist in the migrants’ countries said. Syria, said he hoped to be reset- firm contracted by the Canadian Numbers have decreased sig- of origin and the arrival of illegal She noted that Lebanon was the tled in Canada soon. “I applied to Embassy to collect information nificantly from 2015-16 because immigrants is bound to continue. largest sending host country for re- be reunited with my wife. She mi- about migration applicants. of deterrent measures, including settlements, more so than Turkey grated with her family four years Irregular migration mainly from a 2016 EU deal with Turkey, new Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly or Jordan. ago when we were still engaged. the Middle East and Africa contin- border fences in the Balkans and Travel and Society section editor.

Viewpoint Migration at the heart of French-Italian crisis he EU should sanc- with Marine Le Pen, his French far- policy in Libya of being reckless. be fervently pro-European Union. tion France and right counterpart who was defeated Macron’s attempt to pull the dip- Throughout the 1990s, Italians all countries like by Macron in the 2017 presidential lomatic rug from under Italian feet feared missing the bus for Europe “ France that impov- elections, on his page on Libya last spring only to fail to and being left out of the euro. Francis Ghilès erish Africa and with the caption: “Matteo+Marine, reconcile Libyan factions is hardly The introduction of the euro in make these people Macron’s worst nightmare.” the stuff of clever diplomacy and January 2002 was greeted with leave,T because Africans should Di Maio and Salvini are cam- neither is his continued support huge celebrations but the European be in Africa, not at the bottom of paigning before the vote and are for Libyan Field-Marshal Khalifa Union has fallen out of favour as the Mediterranean. If people are eager to show they have broken Haftar. the European Union came to be leaving [Africa] today, it’s because with the consensual politics of the Italy’s Eni and France’s Total seen a demanding stepmother, a European countries, France above centre-left and centre-right parties. have separate joint ventures in mask concealing austerity-obsessed all, have never stopped colonising The men share a common interest Libya but former French President Germany and French presumption dozens of African countries.” in targeting France. Nicolas Sarkozy never bothered to that treated Italy as a second-rank This most undiplomatic outburst Their support for the Yellow Vest hide his desire that France should country. from Italian Finance Minister and movement is an unprecedented enjoy a greater share of the Libyan The European Union has become leader of the Five Star Movement step in recent EU politics; leaders oil and gas cake when he took the a scapegoat — as in the United Luigi Di Maio has become a regular of one EU member do not support lead in topping Muammar Qaddafi Kingdom — demanding higher feature of French bashing, the the opposition in a neighbouring in 2011. The then-Italian Prime taxes, lower public spending and norm since the Five Star Movement country. Minister proved leaving Italy the cost of accom- and League political parties rose to The Italian outburst provoked incapable of stopping the French- modating hundreds of thousands power last June. a withering response from Paris led and UK-, US- and NATO-backed of immigrants from across the Things got off to a bad start where European Affairs Minister military operation. Mediterranean. after French President Emmanuel Nathalie Loiseau dismissed com- Where Italian leaders are on Conspiracy theories were a Macron last summer spoke about ments that she said could only shakier ground is when Di Maio hallmark of the late co-founder of “populist leprosy” in a reported trigger a “competition of the stu- accuses France of manipulating the the Five Star Movement, Gianrob- dig against the new government pidest,” in other words a race to the economies of African countries that erto Casaleggio. The movement but the migrant crisis, which has bottom. There is little doubt that use the CFA franc as their currency, has campaigned against vaccina- bedevilled Europe for years, and Italy’s reactions are disproportion- stifling their development. tion and cast doubt on the moon the migrants themselves are at the ate and counterproductive. First of all, most immigrants do landing. heart of the ongoing Franco-Italian Colonialism is guaranteed to not come from countries that use In such an atmosphere, with crisis. raise hackles in France. During the CFA. Second, having that cur- racist attacks against migrants Both countries have been ham- the 2017 presidential campaign, rency might be good for some and rising, immigrants moved around pered by the absence of a unified Macron caused fury on the French not for others but it is voluntary the country with no warning, the EU policy on mass migration and right after describing French be- and for the countries to decide teachings of the Roman Catholic have been squabbling over where haviour during the war of liberation whether to use it. Church and Pope Francis brushed the thousands of desperate people of Algeria (1954-61) as “a crime That said, rational debate is not aside, the very frosty relations saved in the Mediterranean should against humanity.” The dirty deeds what is at stake today. Macron is between Rome and Paris may offer go. of colonialism continue to prompt trying to forge an anti-populist a taste of what is to come. Some observers see Di Maio’s and a form of denial as well as nostalgia coalition ahead of the European For the time being, it looks like the acerbic Italian Interior Minister among certain groups in France. elections while Italian leaders opera buffa but let us not forget Matteo Salvini’s comments as just That said, Italy is hardly blame- are seeking to cement alliances that Salvini’s rate of approval rhetoric, especially when the latter less. The treatment the Italians between anti-establishment parties resembles that of the man who was The very frosty calls on French voters not to sup- meted out to Libya, Ethiopia and whose gains in May will determine arguably the greatest demagogue in relations between port Macron’s En Marche party in was every much as cruel as the shape of the European Union. Italy: Benito Mussolini. Rome and Paris May’s European elections. French deeds in North and sub- Pessimists are less sure that To stoke the fire further, Luca Saharan Africa. the Italian bashing of France is Francis Ghilès is an associate may offer a taste of Morisi, Salvini’s social media strate- Where the Italian leaders have a simply a diplomatic spat. It is worth fellow at the Barcelona Centre for what is to come. gist, posted a photo of the minister point is when they accuse French remembering that Italy used to International Affairs. 20 February 3, 2019 Economy Energy

Abu Dhabi bank merger to boost business, investment Briefs

The Arab Weekly staff hance the competitiveness of the Bank, the largest banking entity in move to acquire Al Hilal Bank for Dubai airport national economy and its future as- the United Arab Emirates. $272 million by issuing mandatory pirations,” Abu Dhabi Crown Prince The statement said the merger convertible financial instruments to retains top global London Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al- would create a platform to support the Abu Dhabi Investment Council. Nahyan posted on Twitter. the growth of the new bank’s activi- New banking group officers in- spot for fifth year hree UAE banks announced He said “the move contributes to ties in retail and corporate banking clude Eissa Mohamed al-Suwaidi as a merger to create a bank- enhancing the business environ- sectors in traditional and Islamic chairman of the board, Mohammed Dubai International Airport ing group that would be the ment and ensuring its sustainability, banking. bin Dhaen al-Hamli as its vice-chair- said it retained its top global spot T country’s third-largest fi- to supporting development projects It said the strategic objective of man and Ala’a Eraiqat as CEO. in 2018 after serving the largest nancial institution and fifth largest and to creating investment oppor- the new bank would be to increase Suwaidi said the merged ADCB number of passengers for the fifth in the Gulf Cooperation Council area tunities in vital sectors according to market share through “excellence in would have the size and expertise consecutive year despite falling in terms of assets. the best international standards.” customer service and continuing to needed to play a pivotal role in sup- short of its target. A statement by Abu Dhabi Com- The banks’ statement said the innovate in the development of its porting UAE economic develop- Traffic at the major transit hub mercial Bank and Union National new banking group would benefit products and services,” specifically ment. totalled 89.15 million passengers Bank said their boards agreed to from “strong institutional support” through e-banking. Eraiqat said the transaction repre- last year, up just more than 1% merge and then acquire Al Hilal through Abu Dhabi government Moreover, the new bank would sented a milestone and a confident from the number who used the air- Bank, which would continue its op- ownership of a majority stake.” try to capitalise on its large busi- step towards establishing a financial port in 2017, airport officials said in erations as an Islamic bank. Data indicate that the new bank- ness share by enhancing its ability institution with stronger potential, a statement. The combined banks would retain ing group would have a customer to finance and support businesses greater flexibility and a proven re- the Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank base of about 1 million patrons and and contribute to the growth and cord of success in traditional and (Agence France-Presse) (ADCB) name under assets of about have a 15% share of the total assets diversification of UAE’s economy, as Islamic banking sectors. $114 billion. The merger requires ap- portfolio of the UAE market, about well as invest in the development of The transaction is expected to proval of regulators and sharehold- 21% share in individual loans and up human and technical resources and achieve significant operational cost ers. to a 16% share of total bank deposits infrastructure. savings by about $167 million a year Abu Dhabi awards The statement, released by the in the country. Under the terms of the merger, to improve the bank’s profitability Emirates News Agency, said the Until the merger goes into force, shares in the new ADCB would be and enhance competitiveness of its Eni, OMV key share of the government’s Abu Dha- which is expected during the first issued at a rate of 0.5966 shares for products and services. stakes in oil refiner bi Investment Council in the new half of 2019, the three banks will op- each Union National Bank share It would contribute to the expan- bank would be about 60%. erate independently. owned. When the merger is com- sion of customer financing and im- Abu Dhabi’s state oil firm said “The merger of the three banks The merger comes two years after pleted, Union National Bank shares prove the bank’s capacity to invest it signed partnership deals worth is in line with the economic vision the largest merger in Abu Dhabi be- will be delisted on the Abu Dhabi Se- efficiently in future growth engines $5.8 billion with Italian oil giant of the UAE and is a strong banking tween National Bank of Abu Dhabi curities Exchange. The merged bank such as compliance systems, digital Eni and Austria’s OMV, awarding group with human potential and and First Gulf Bank, which led to will retain the legal records of ADCB. switching, e-security and a sophisti- them key stakes in its refining arm. financial capabilities that will en- the emergence of Abu Dhabi First The resulting entity would then cated branch network. Under the agreements, Eni will own 20% and OMV 15% of the Abu Viewpoint Dhabi National Oil Company’s AD- NOC Refining, with the state firm keeping 65%. The firm announced the forma- Riyadh introduces major investment initiative tion of a joint venture between the three companies to sell refined oil products on international markets, ADNOC said in a statement.

Jareer Elass (Agence France-Presse)

iyadh is blitzing foreign investors with opportu- Baghdad agrees to nities in the kingdom for the coming decade while lower oil shipments promising major invest- ments of its own in the prices to Jordan RUnited States. Baghdad has agreed with Am- The government of Saudi King Sal- man to lower prices on crude oil man bin Abdulaziz Al Saud capital- shipments to Jordan in return for ised on access to foreign executives easing goods imports to Iraq, the and bankers at the World Economic Iraqi state television quoted Iraqi Forum in to promote a Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi new domestic development pro- as saying. gramme. Securing foreign investment deals (Reuters) in the kingdom in the near term would not only help jumpstart the kingdom’s economy by growing the private sector but could help Riyadh fend off potential punitive measures Lebanon signs oil from Western governments should storage deal with more damning information regard- ing the killing of journalist Jamal Russia’s Rosneft Khashoggi come to light. The Saudi government rolled out Lebanon has signed a deal with the biggest component of its new Russia’s largest oil company, investment drive on January 28 — a Rosneft, to upgrade and operate 10-year, $426 billion development storage installations in country’s programme focusing on private A new investment drive. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz (L) signs a document given northern city of Tripoli. (SPA) sector transportation and industry to him by Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih during a ceremony in Riyadh, January 28. Rosneft will manage storage investments that could contribute operations. They will start with $320 billion to the Saudi economy by (NIDLP). The NIDLP was created as industry projects from foreign and championing him as a “for real” the development of 450,000 2030 as well as generate 1.6 million part of Saudi Vision 2030, which is to domestic investors. It may not be reformer. metric tons of capacity, likely to jobs for Saudi nationals. transform the kingdom’s economy coincidental that a leading Saudi While looking to lure large-scale be expanded to 1.5 million metric As part of an investor conference by making it less dependent on oil investment company signalled its investment for domestic develop- tons in the future. in Riyadh, the Saudi government revenues. intention to spend heavily in the ment, the Saudi government wants reported it signed nearly 40 agree- NIDLP CEO Aabed Abdulla al- kingdom. to make a major play internationally (Associated Press) ments valued at $54 billion. Another Saadoun said the Saudi government Kingdom Holding CEO Talal Ibra- and, not surprisingly, set its sights on 29 deals worth $960 million covering will inject $26.6 billion into the him al-Maiman announced January the US market. mining, logistics and energy “ready industrial development programme 21 that the company planned to Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, for negotiations” were touted during this year and next. spend $1 billion in Saudi Arabia over at the World Economic Forum, sug- the event. One of the goals of Vision 2030 is the next six months, saying: “We gested that his firm would not only Turkey’s central Saudi Transportation Minister to have the Gulf country’s private believe there are better opportunities sink $10 billion into enhancing its bank cuts 2019 Nabeel al-Amoudi said as much sector operate much of the trans- in Saudi Arabia and the region today.” wholly owned Port Arthur, Texas, as $36 billion in investments was portation infrastructure — including Maiman said he hopes other exec- Motiva refinery — the largest refinery inflation forecast earmarked for transportation infra- airports and seaports — with the utives will also invest in the kingdom in the United States — but will also structure projects by 2030, includ- government serving as regulator. and he rejected the suggestion that secure American natural gas assets. The Turkish central bank cut ing plans to build five airports and Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih, his firm ramped up its spending at Nasser said: “Aramco’s interna- its 2019 inflation forecast to more produce 200km of railway. speaking of the programme, said: home due to political strong-arming. tional gas team has been given an than 14% while vowing to keep a These investments will be directed “It’s quite ambitious but it’s over a Kingdom Holding Chairman Prince open platform to look at [US] gas tight monetary stance until fast- through the National Industrial De- 10-year period so we’ve got the time Al-Waleed bin Talal was detained acquisitions along the whole supply rising prices fall back. velopment and Logistics Programme to do it. All of this will happen while in November 2017 for nearly three chain. They have been given sig- Consumer price inflation spiked we’re building our oil economy.” months as part of the Saudi govern- nificant financial firepower — in the to a 15-year high in October 2018 He said he expects the invest- ment’s corruption crackdown target- billions of dollars.” of more than 25% before retreat- ments will help establish 11 new ing former and current government He noted in November that the ing to 20.3% in December, hitting While looking to lure private sector industries in the officials and high-profile business- state energy firm’s gas expansion consumers hard as the Turkish lira large-scale investment kingdom, ranging from aerospace to men. plans required $150 billion of invest- also weakened. for domestic biomedicine. Falih said the devel- He was released after reaching a ment over the next decade while The central bank said inflation opment programme will link the settlement approved by the state Saudi Arabia pushes to increase its was “likely to be 14.6%” at the development, the energy, mining and infrastructure prosecutor. Prince Al-Waleed — output and become a gas exporter. end of 2019, down from the 15.2% Saudi government industries together to bolster the considered one of the world’s richest estimate given in October. kingdom’s fledgling private sector. men — has since his release publicly Jareer Elass reports from wants to make a major The NIDLP will seek to raise supported Saudi Crown Prince Mo- Washington on energy issues (Agence France-Presse) play internationally. money for the infrastructure and hammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, for The Arab Weekly. February 3, 2019 21 Economy

Egypt expects higher dollar demand as it repays debt

Amr Emam Oil-rich Arab countries lent Cairo approximately $23 billion from 2013- 15, a period of severe economic, Cairo political and security problems in Egypt. Egypt also issued billions gypt will have to repay $14.7 of dollars in euro and dollar bonds billion this year to interna- to bankroll its development, boost tional creditors, including central bank international reserves E Arab countries that depos- and feed its growing population. ited billions of dollars in the Central Cairo, Abdelhamid said, was al- Bank of Egypt to boost Cairo’s inter- ways keen to preserve its financial national reserves. credibility by honouring its interna- However, the repayments will tional financial obligations but this create greater demand for the US will apparently be part of an effort currency in the local market, econo- with far-reaching effects on the con- mists said. ditions of the local market and com- “This demand will eventually modity prices in this market. lead to raising the exchange rate of The exchange rate of the US dollar the US currency against the Egyp- is on the decline against the Egyp- tian pound,” said financial econom- tian pound, losing almost 2% of its ics expert Doha Abdelhamid. value against the pound in late Jan- The $14.7 billion that is to be re- uary. paid this year includes $8.6 billion to The drop in the value of the dollar Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emir- came a short time after Central Bank ates and Kuwait, the Central Bank of Governor Tarek Amer confirmed in Egypt said. The financial obligations an interview with Bloomberg News also include $2.8 billion to inter- that the foreign exchange market is national crediting institutions and expected to fluctuate. $961 million in euro and dollar bond Economists attribute the decline interest. in the value of the US currency to the cancellation of a foreign cur- Strengthening the Arab rency repatriation mechanism that country’s financial abilities allowed foreign investors to transfer money outside Egypt. The mecha- Bracing for more volatility. Egyptians walk in front of the Egyptian Central Bank in Cairo. (AP) are increasing financial nism led to the flight of around $12 inflows, including revenues billion in 2018. from the tourism sector, “We will witness more volatility Improving indicators include the exports. In 2018, revenues from importing natural gas, with domestic which is rebounding after in the currency after the repatriation rise in central bank international exports to foreign markets rose to production covering the daily needs almost three years of mechanism was shut down as inves- reserves. Despite a recent drop of $25.8 billion from $18.7 billion in of 6.2 billion cubic metres. stagnation. tors will now have to go through $2 billion, the reserves total $42.5 2016. Remittances from Egyptian The production is expected to rise the interbank market,” Amer told billion, from less than $24 billion workers in other countries rose in to 8 billion cubic metres a day dur- The Egyptian pound has lost al- Bloomberg News, just weeks after before the liberalisation of the Egyp- 2018 to $26.4 billion from $16.7 bil- ing this fiscal year, which would al- most half of its value against the US the central bank repatriation mecha- tian pound in 2016. lion in 2016. low Egypt to export gas to interna- dollar since November 2016 when nism was ended in December. The fifth tranche of a $12 billion Apart from the decline in the value tional markets. the central bank liberalised its ex- However, improving financial in- loan from the International Mon- of imports, in general, Egypt stopped In addition to the fifth tranche, change rate, as part of a package of dicators will reduce potential effects etary Fund (IMF), $2 billion, is ex- Egypt hopes to receive the sixth and economic and monetary reforms from the expected debt repayment pected to be delivered in the first final tranche of the IMF loan, an ad- that aimed at boosting investors’ on the national economy, the bal- half of February. This, Fahmi said, ditional $2 billion, this year. confidence and eradicating the par- ance of payments and commodity would increase Egypt’s foreign cur- The $14.7 “This will compound revenues allel foreign currency market. price, economists said. rency reserves and make Egypt from the tourism sector, growing The rise in the exchange rate of “This is why there will be little more capable of honouring its inter- revenues from the Suez Canal and the dollar to almost 18 pounds has effects on the economy from the national financial obligations. billion the remittances of national work- had a strong toll on the livelihoods repayment of this huge amount of Strengthening the Arab country’s that is to be repaid ers in other countries,” said Fakhry of ordinary Egyptians, particularly money this year,” said MP Bassant financial abilities are also increasing Elfiky, a former assistant to the exec- because most Egyptian imports Fahmi, a member of the parliamen- financial inflows, including reve- this year includes utive director of the IMF. “All these are paid for in the US currency. It tary Economic Affairs Committee. nues from the tourism sector, which $8.6 billion to Saudi developments make for a strong fi- also raised Egypt’s import bill and “Improving financial indicators will is rebounding after almost three nancial position and reduce effects obliged Cairo to set aside more mon- offset possible effects from the re- years of stagnation. Arabia, the United Arab from honouring all these financial ey for foreign debt service. payment of this money.” They also include revenues from Emirates and Kuwait. obligations.” Viewpoint Erdogan risks electoral blowback as economy slows

Stephen Starr he talk on the Turkish remains strong, driven by popula- street is about a charge tion growth and easy credit. Ad- for plastic bags to carry ditionally, the cheaper lira has led groceries but much to exports rising almost 8% in the bigger problems loom. year to November 2018. High economic growth This, however, may not be Trates enjoyed by the Turkish enough. Timothy Ash, an analyst economy for almost a decade are at BlueBay Asset Management, a distant memory. With local elec- warned against cutting interest tions in March, Turkish President rates too early. Then, he said, “the Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice lira melts and this would just send and Development Party (AKP) the economy into a death spiral… faces perhaps the most testing It could also be terminal for the period in its 16-year rule. AKP’s chances in local elections.” Experts have long said Turkey’s The AKP has flourished because policy of keeping interest rates low it transformed Turkey’s economy. despite surging inflation amount- International media dubbed ed to little more than kicking the Kayseri, Konya and Bursa, once can down the road. Well, that can seen as provincial backwaters, the has been kicked to pieces and will “Anatolian Tigers” on account of travel no further. their high industrial output over Turkey’s economic growth Testing juncture. A restaurant worker stands by a board outside a the past decade. The AKP invested stood at 7.4% of GDP in 2017 but is currency exchange shop in Istanbul. (AP) billions of dollars in bridges, high- expected to slow to 2.3% this year, ways and major public transporta- official estimates state. A year ago, tion projects. The mood in Turkey inflation was a little more than AKP apparatchiks during public Turkey for detaining Brunson and was optimistic. 10%; by October, it had hit 25%. rallies did not present the full the lira collapsed, precipitating Now, sections of the AKP leader- Interest rates are at 24%; a year picture. Turkey had wider eco- wider turmoil that continues to ship and the party’s most commit- ago, they were 8%. nomic problems: unemployment spill into 2019. ted voters, polls indicate, admit Furthermore, the lira lost almost rates had been stuck for years at The outlook is not encourag- Turkey’s finances are in bad shape. half its value against major curren- more than 10%. The central bank’s ing. “The International Monetary Erdogan’s decision to appoint cies in 2018. With that, Erdogan’s policy of keeping interest rates Fund expects Turkey’s nominal his son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, dream of Turkey joining the ranks low (Erdogan is a self-described GDP to come in at $631 billion for as finance minister has not gone of the world’s top ten economies “enemy” of high interest rates’ 2019,” reports bne IntelliNews. down well. Should the economy has gone up in smoke. looming shadow) while growth “That would mean the country slide further in the months ahead, Erdogan has blamed For years, AKP leaders held up and spending surged, meant that a retaining its position as having the Erdogan can expect a backlash at others — the Kurds, Turkey’s high growth rates and painful correction was likely. world’s 17th largest economy but the ballot box. the United States or spending binge as proof that all All that was needed was a spark. the anticipated output figure pales In the past, Erdogan has blamed was well. Growth rates of 7% and That came last summer when in comparison to 2017’s $849.5 others — the Kurds, the United cleric Fethullah 8% were not uncommon, which international attention focused on billion.” States or cleric Fethullah Gulen — Gulen — for the made Turkey’s economy the Turkey’s detention of American Ankara has tried to fight back. for the difficulties faced by Turkey. only bright spot in political and pastor Andrew Brunson on espio- In December, the government an- This time it’s not so easy: The roots difficulties faced security-related tumult. nage charges. US President Donald nounced a 26% rise in the mini- of Turkey’s economic malaise lie by Turkey. However, the figures quoted by Trump announced sanctions on mum wage. Consumer spending squarely at the president’s door. 22 February 3, 2019 Society Female Islamist MP drops the veil in Paris, divides Morocco’s ruling PJD

Saad Guerraoui to Maelainine, went quickly to her defence. “I blame you for not coming to Casablanca see me during this controversy to confer with me. If you had asked orocco’s ruling Islam- me for advice, I would have told ist Justice and Devel- you that nobody has the right to opment Party (PJD) is ask you anything about this ques- M going through turmoil tion. You are free and it’s a person- amid growing division between its al matter,” Benkirane told Maelain- leaders over scandals involving its ine during a meeting at his house. politicians. However, Prime Minister and The PJD’s popularity dwindled current PJD Secretary-General following personal photos of an Saad Eddine El Othmani disagreed unveiled female member of parlia- during PJD national council ses- ment in Paris that were shown by sion. Moroccan media. “The party’s commitment to its MP Amina Maelainine initially Islamic repository is an exercise said that the picture with her ex- and not an illusion, we must en- posed hair blown by the wind in sure that we are always attached to front of the Moulin Rouge in Paris it,” said Othmani. “We must set an was fabricated and denounced a example, especially those who are “slanderous” campaign against at the forefront of public opinion.” her. She later admitted on Face- Benkirane, who attended the book that the photos were genu- session, warned “the veil is not a ine. work outfit as some demons have said.” The ruling party can no “Our sisters carry it by belief and conviction,” Benkirane said. longer preserve its politico- Political analyst Hafid Ezzah- religious speech following ri said the PJD, which has been scandals that have involved dubbed as the party of “pink sto- its politicians and leaders. ries,” was going through a serious internal crisis because of Maelain- Parisian attire. MP Amina Maelainine of Morocco’s ruling Islamist Justice and Development Party “I would like to point out that ine. during her stay in the French capital. (Facebook) the pictures are not new and have “Maelainine’s case took another already been sent to some of the path after Moroccans called on the party ministers and some mem- ruling party to clarify its official Many Moroccans took to social longer preserve its politico-reli- before parliamentary elections, bers of the secretariat who briefed public discourse on the matter as media to address the contradiction gious speech following scandals two senior members of the Move- me a few months ago,” Maelain- PJD leaders continue to show their between PJD politicians’ public that have involved its politicians ment for Unity and Reform Move- ine said, warning that she would divisions over the matter,” said Ez- speech and their private behav- and leaders. ment — PJD’s religious and ideo- prosecute anyone who harms “my zahri. iour, reminding them that they He referred to the case of Labour logical wing — were arrested on reputation and my family.” Maelainine’s photos prompted were not immune from criticism as Minister Mohamed Yatim who charges of lewd behaviour in pub- Maelainine rose to fame in the wide condemnation of her “hypoc- public figures. was photographed holding hands lic. political scene with her eloquence risy” among Moroccans and some “Why did Maelainine take off with his physiotherapist in Paris, Omar Benhammad and Fatima and interventions in the media. politicians. her veil in France? Is it halal to do pictures that filled the front pages Nejjar were allegedly found in She is the seventh vice-president “The hypocrites will end in the it in the West and haram (illegal) in of Moroccan newspapers last Sep- a “sexual position” in a car on a of the Souss-Massa region and sev- depths of hell. It is clear that today her own country? A double-faced tember. beach in El Mansouria. They were enth vice-president of the House we must unmask the contradic- politician cannot be trusted,” civil Yatim later formalised his rela- married a few weeks later. of Representatives. tions of the Islamists,” said Secre- servant Abdellatif Saaidi said. tionship with his physiotherapist Ousted Prime Minister and for- tary-General of the Unified Social- Ezzahri said the rift in the PJD although his wife refused to grant Saad Guerraoui is a contributor mer PJD Secretary-General Abde- ist Party Nabila Mounib during a will likely result in resignations him permission to remarry. to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb lilah Benkirane, known to be close party event in Tetouan. and that the ruling party can no In September 2016, one month issues.

Viewpoint Lebanese youth caught between a rock and a hard place

ost young Leba- changed only in appearance. Leba- nese are living in nese born during the civil war and a state of contra- who grew up during the days of diction. Although the deep rift between East Beirut Roweida Rifai they attack politi- and West Beirut, surrounded by cians and commu- daily kidnappings and assassina- Mnity leaders and blame them for tions based on sectarian identity, Lebanon’s crises, they are politi- are now living an invisible war, in cally aligned with and often follow which survival, access to job op- the leader of their community. portunities, housing, educational A study by the Levant Institute services and decent living have indicated that young Lebanese replaced bullets and guns. tend to echo the views of their Young people in Lebanon — 28% political leaders and even defend of the population — are faced with their mistakes. They readily attack a tough choice in which both alter- those who have different political natives are equally painful: accept and electoral interests. their harsh reality or migrate. Elections in Lebanon are a Their biggest foe is unemploy- season for harvesting personal and ment. Young people make up a partisan benefits. It is often not the large component of the unem- best-qualified candidates who win ployed population in Lebanon. elections in Lebanon but the ones An International Labour Organi- A future in the balance. Young Lebanese men on skateboards pass who can buy votes, which very of- sation report on challenges facing by a police officer and a soldier securing a street they have closed ten is through vote-trading deals. youth employment in Lebanon off in Beirut. (Reuters) The recent municipal elections said there was a significant gender in Lebanon were rife with viola- disparity in unemployment figures. tions all over the country. non’s youth tried to ride the wave rejected a law restricting a voter The unemployment rate for fe- Very often there are cultural and of the Arab uprisings and called to vote for a candidate from his or males aged 15-19 was 41.6% while ideological gaps between young for demonstrations and protests to her community. Only 35.3% of the the rate for males in the same age people living in adjacent areas in bring down the system of sectarian respondents said that they would bracket was 18.3%. Similar dispari- Lebanon. These gaps are almost quotas but the political and sectar- vote for a particular list to sup- ties are also found among the 20- Lebanese born during always reinforced by the sectarian ian alliances in Lebanon stifled port a specific political party while 24 age group (24.2% for females; and communal divide as well as by those attempts. 57.9% said that they make their 12.9% for males) and the 25-29 age the civil war are now deteriorating economic conditions. A survey of 1,000 young Leba- choice based on the candidate’s group (10.5% for females; 6.2% for living an invisible The media in Lebanon play a nese who voted for the first time in competence. males). major role in mobilising young 2017 indicated that most respond- However, 46.1% of respondents Another hurdle facing all war, in which people along partisan and com- ents voted along sectarian lines but said they agreed with the state- Lebanese is the housing crisis. survival, access to job munal lines. Civil society is free in only half of them admitted that ment that a representative from Real estate prices have skyrock- opportunities, Lebanon. The political reality in sectarian affiliation decided their a given sect is better suited to eted, especially in urban areas, the country, however, is governed political choices. In other words, represent the interests of voters and acquiring an apartment in the housing, educational by strict sectarian rules based on a they readily accuse others of from the same sect and 73.7% of suburbs has become an unlikely services and decent quota system and it does not look sectarianism but deny the charge respondents said they considered achieved dream of young people. like this new generation of Leba- when it comes to themselves. Lebanese overall to be sectarian. living have replaced nese is ready to change the system. The survey also revealed that All signs indicate that Leba- Roweida Rifai is a Syrian bullets and guns. In 2011, a small portion of Leba- 70.1% of respondents said they non’s accumulated problems have journalist. February 3, 2019 23 Culture UAE publishers steal limelight at Cairo International Book Fair Hassan Abdel Zaher Taking place in the Fifth Settle- ment, a sprawling new urban com- munity on the outskirts of Cairo, the Cairo fair aspires to reinvent itself as part of Egypt’s pursuit to regain a leading he Cairo International Book cultural role. Fair marked its golden ju- Contributing to the large turnout bilee this year as one of the was that the fair took place during T oldest cultural and book school holidays. The Egyptian gov- events in the Arab region amid ernment offered free transportation strong participation by publishers to those visiting the fair from vari- from 35 countries. ous parts of Cairo. Despite constraints facing pub- “More and more people are show- lishers by the internet and digital ing up for the fair every day,” said publications, the event attracted Egyptian novelist Youssef al-Qa’eed. many visitors. The UAE booth stole “This shows that distance and road the limelight with dozens of titles hassles do not dim people’s love for reflecting the country’s heritage as reading.” Present with a mission. Exhibitors from the Sharjah Institute for Heritage at the Cairo International well as its cultural and religious role Nevertheless, difficulties facing Book Fair. (Hassan Abdel Zaher) in the region. the publishing industry loom large. “We view our participation in the Rising printing costs, expensive raw fair very highly,” said Fadel Hussein, material including paper and ink ness about true Islam and draw at- are totally different from the ones The books were published by Al the head of the Sharjah Book Fair and the lack of effective copyright tention to the country’s heritage. available anywhere in the world,” Muwatta Centre, a semi-official re- section at the UAE booth. “The Cai- laws can cause publishers to incur Important UAE cultural institu- Rashwan said, adding that copies search body that hopes to produce ro International Book Fair is unique huge losses. tions, such as the Mohammed bin sold quickly for that reason. the next generation of moderate re- and enjoys huge importance on the “The publishing industry is in Rashid Holy Quran Printing Centre, ligious scholars and leaders. Arab cultural stage.” danger,” said Mohamed Rashad, the Sharjah Institute for Heritage Nearly 750 local, Arab and Like other UAE cultural institu- The Sharjah Book Fair was one the head of the Arab Publishers As- and the Al Muwatta Centre intro- tions, the centre went to Cairo with of several UAE exhibitors, some sociation, an independent guild duced dozens of new titles at the international publishers a message that manifests itself in the of which participated in the Cairo of publishers in the Arab region. fair. participated in the fair, nature of the titles it is showcasing. event for the first time. Others have “These are problems that need the The Mohammed bin Rashid Holy regarded as Egypt’s most “We have a mission, namely been travelling to Cairo for years as intervention of Arab governments Quran Printing Centre produces 6 important cultural event. spreading moderation and eradi- part of the UAE’s general cultural to check the deterioration of the in- million copies of the Quran every cating extremism,” said Mohamed outreach policy. dustry.” year. The centre aspires to raise the Selling out also were other titles Shakir, the head of the centre’s sec- Nearly 750 local, Arab and inter- In the UAE booth, the Sharjah number of copies to 15 million annu- brought in by UAE publishers, in- tion at the booth. “This is why most national publishers participated in Book Fair and other public institu- ally, said Mohamed Abdel Monem cluding a book on rules regulating of the books we are bringing here the fair, regarded as Egypt’s most tions promoted their work and ad- Rashwan, the centre’s head of com- the issuance of religious edicts by stress that mission.” important cultural event. The Arab vanced the Emirates’ cultural agen- mercial development. official religious institutions and League was the guest of honour this da, which is driven by reforms in “The design and the fonts of another on the sayings of Prophet Hassan Abdel Zaher is an Egyptian year. religious discourse to spread aware- the holy book copies we produce Mohammad. reporter based in Cairo. ‘Dachra,’ Tunisia’s first horror movie, hits theatres

Roua Khlifi the focus of Tunisian films. Tuni- Responding to critics who said don’t think it affects the image “There is the grandfather who sian cinema is mostly known for the movie could perpetuate a neg- of the country. Many people are thinks he obtains the truth and film d’auteur and tackling taboos, ative image of the country with oblivious to many things that hap- knowledge but he keeps it hid- Tunis including religion and sexuality its treatment of witchcraft and pen inside the country,” Bouchnak den from the younger generation but “Dachra” is more of a psycho- sorcery, Bouchnak explained that said. exemplified in his granddaughter unisian actor Abdelhamid logical exploration of a myth from such beliefs exist but are rare. Due “The movie deals with a leg- and her friends who struggle try- Bouchnak’s directorial de- Tunisian culture. to their mysterious nature, those end that is not common but it ing to pursue the truth,” Bouchnak but, “Dachra” (“Village”), “A horror film doesn’t have to myths provided artistic inspira- happens,” he added. “The whole said about one of the themes of T is the first true horror be unfamiliar territory for us. It tion for his film. country gets affected by it but the film. film in Tunisia’s film canon and is needs to be a movie that relates even if it’s only two incidents that “It is very similar to the Tuni- winning acclaim from critics and and speaks to us. It is useless to Screenings have sold out, happened during the last five dec- sian society where we have older movie goers. make a movie that is a copy of with the film popular ades it is my choice to talk about generations and politicians think- “Dachra,” which premiered other international horror movies among young Tunisians i t .” ing they control things and de- January 15 in Tunis, tells the story that have already been made. I am in particular. Not only is “Dachra” a thrill- cide, whereas the youth want to of three journalism students on a making this movie for a larger au- ing story, it also has deeper social explore,” he added. “In the end, trip to an enigmatic rural village to dience as well. It would be strange “I wanted something that could undertones. Bouchnak said the we realise the older generations investigate a 25-year-old mystery. to make a movie about vampires also intrigue the international movie was an exploration of gen- are not helping the youth but are Spectators gasped and squirmed when we don’t have that element audience as well. It is something erational conflict that seems to be affecting their decisions. It is a at the cast’s chilling performances in our culture,” Bouchnak said. they are not familiar with but I part of modern day Tunisia. conflict between tradition and and were taken aback by the film’s modernity.” Tunisian themes and symbolism. Screenings have sold out, with “It was nothing like I have ever the film popular among young Tu- seen in Tunisian cinema,” said nisians in particular. Cyrine, a 21-year-old student. “It “The reaction was amazing,” was a thrilling experience and I al- Bouchnak said. “It was exciting most jumped out of my seat a cou- but it is also terrifying to have ple of times. these extraordinary reactions. “I think the most interesting Some people went to the cinema thing was that it talks about some- for the first time in their lives to thing Tunisian rather than an ele- watch the movie. ment that is foreign to us.” “It is an opportunity to promote a new image of Tunisian cinema that is inclusive of all genres. Not only is “Dachra” a There are different genres and thrilling story, it also has styles in cinema to explore, and it deeper social undertones. is a shame to restrict ourselves to only one genre that is aimed at the Shkoon Production, in associa- elite but fails to speak to the larger tion with SVP Production, took audience.” the film to several international Bouchnak, who said a new gen- film festivals, including the Ven- eration of film-makers is rising in ice International Film Festival. Tunisia, looks for young directors “Dachra” won the award as “Most to experiment with new genres. Scary Movie” at the International “Tunisian cinema has made Fantastic Film Festival in Poland. great strides in recent years. It is “It was my dream to make a rejuvenating cinema and the mov- movie of this genre,” Bouchnak ie theatres,” Bouchnak said. “I am said. “It was difficult to make, for the idea of a new wave. Why especially in Tunisia because the not have our own genre and our genre is not very familiar to the own cinema?” Tunisian audience.” Bouchnak said it took courage Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel and and risks making a movie that Culture contributor to The Arab tackles issues that are not usually Outside the box. Cast members of “Dachra” pose during the movie’s premiere in Tunis. (Facebook) Weekly. 24 February 3, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

A panoramic view of the Bay of Jounieh and Our Lady of Lebanon statue. (Jounieh Municipality) A view of the older part of Jounieh. (Jounieh Municipality) Lebanon’s Jounieh keeps Agenda Tizi Ouzou: During February

The National Amazigh Film charm despite urbanisation Festival in Tizi Ouzou, in north- central Algeria, showcases full- length feature films, documen- Samar Kadi tract more visitors and benefit the taries, shorts and animation that people of Jounieh.” celebrate Amazigh culture in A long-time attraction in Jou- Algeria. Jounieh nieh is the “teleferique” — cable car — ride to the top of the pine- Beirut: nce a quiet fishing vil- forested mountain overlooking February 12-March 17 lage on a spectacular bay the city. 16km north of Beirut, In only 9 minutes, the 1.5km line Al Bustan International Festival O Jounieh has grown into a transports passengers from the of Music and the Performing densely built-up area of high-rise bay of Jounieh to an altitude of Arts is a musical celebration in buildings, hotels and large resort 650 metres, arriving at Our Lady Beirut that promotes music from complexes. of Lebanon shrine in Harissa. The all over the world. The festival Despite the disorderly urban de- trip offers spectacularly dramatic includes orchestral concerts, velopment, the village-turned-city views, including panoramic vistas choral music, opera and dance has kept many of its charms. The over the bay. A short trip up a fu- performances. old, arcaded souk on the water- nicular takes visitors the remain- front is a busy shopping area teem- ing distance to the statue of Our Marrakech: ing with life and famous for its res- Lady of Lebanon and the adjacent February 24-May 16 taurants offering diverse cuisines, basilica. pubs and bustling nightlife. The Teleferique Food Court and The Marrakech Biennale is a Old houses built in the tradition- Playground offers a large choice festival with the mission to al architecture with arcades and of restaurants and cafes overlook- build bridges between cultures red-tiled roofs line the seaside on ing the Mediterranean. The ride through the arts. The seventh a backdrop of modern blocs and which is considered one of the edition will take a multidisci- hotels. Some 200 of Jounieh’s old most popular activities for tourists plinary approach to introduce houses have been marked for pres- in Jounieh costs 11,000 Lebanese artists and works primarily from ervation. pounds (about $7.30). the Arab world, the Mediter- The Shrine of Saint George, set ranean region and sub-Saharan A well-preserved Roman in an ancient funerary cave known Africa. as al-Batieh on the city’s seaside, bridge across the Ghazir is an attraction mainly for wor- River once formed the Dubai: shippers and pilgrims. Made into a March 1 boundary between the place of worship and Christian pil- Crusader County of Tripoli grimage in the Middle Ages, sup- The third Wasla alternative and the Latin Kingdom of plicants light candles or bathe in Arabic music festival has lined Jerusalem. the waters to ensure fertility. This up acts in a wide variety of is also the traditional site of Saint genres, including rock, folk, jazz “We have put in place a plan for George’s battle with the dragon. and electronica. Bands from renovating the old souks and tradi- The house of late Lebanese Pres- Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt are tional buildings to show the genu- ident Fuad Chehab (ruled 1958-64) The statue of late Lebanese President Fuad Chehab outside his to perform at the festival. The (Samar Kadi) ine face of Jounieh,” said Sami Al is another landmark in the heart of home in Jounieh. first Wasla took place in 2016 Burji, a member of Jounieh munic- the old city. Chehab is credited with with live sets by returning guests ipality in charge of tourism. building modern Lebanon through Mashrou’ Leila, Souad Massi and “New laws banning the con- important reforms and large-scale “Members of the Lebanese Tripoli and the Latin Kingdom of Jadal. struction of high-rise buildings social development projects. Maronite Order visited (French Jerusalem. have been introduced and the His house, which was falling into President) Charles de Gaulle’s mu- Also overlooking the Bay of Jou- Cairo: municipality has many heritage ruin, was bought by the Lebanese seum in France to acquire knowl- nieh is the Casino du Liban, which March 8-29 protection plans that it is keen on Maronite Order and turned into a edge about how to archive the his- tempts visitors with slot machines, implementing. Tourism is among museum mostly visited by Leba- tory of big leaders,” said Ghassan roulette, blackjack, baccarat and Downtown Contemporary Arts our priorities because that will at- nese nationals. Fares, who worked on establishing stud poker, as well as restaurants, Festival is Egypt’s only interna- the museum. “Our aim is to keep a nightclub and a theatre that tional multidisciplinary contem- up the legacy of a great man of this hosts international concerts and porary arts festival. It takes place country.” shows such as the French cancan. over three weeks each year at Displayed at the humble resi- The city is known for its inter- several locations in Cairo. dence that once housed Lebanon’s national summer festivals, which most distinguished head of state usually kick off with a spectacular Luxor: are his uniforms, medals, hand- fireworks show along the bay. March 15-21 written documents that drafted “The fireworks did not take the state’s modern infrastructure place this summer because of The eighth Luxor African Film and institutions, including the complaints about the pollution Festival will screen films pro- army, the Consultative Council, they may cause. We replaced this duced in African countries in the Central Inspection Commis- activity with the ‘green wall’ pro- competitions for Long Narra- sion, the Civil Service Council and ject under which flowers and trees tives, Long Documentaries and the National Social Security Fund. will be planted on bridges and Short Films. “We facilitate visits by school streets,” Burji said. students and have established the Christmas in Jounieh was spe- Fouad Chehab Award as a way of cial last year. We welcome submissions of introducing the new generation to The city lit the Christmas tree, calendar items related to the achievements of a great man which won Guinness recognition cultural events of interest to from Lebanon,” Fares said. as one of the largest and most travellers in the Middle East Towards the north of Jounieh’s beautiful worldwide, and the and North Africa. waterfront is a well-preserved Ro- market along the coastal corniche man bridge across the Ghazir River, received visitors with Christ- which once formed the boundary mas recitals and carols by several Please send tips to: Saint Georges shrine in Jounieh. (Samar Kadi) between the Crusader County of chorales. [email protected]