9th October 2020

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HIGHLIGHTS

• Worldwide cases of COVID-19 are now at 36,761,333 with deaths numbering 1,066,956 according to Worldometer. 27,673,862 people have so far recovered from the virus.

• Official figures show that three times as many people have died from COVID-19 than from flu and pneumonia in England and Wales this year. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also revealed that COVID-19 has proven deadlier than any flu and pneumonia season dating back to 1959 when ONS records began.

• United States President Donald Trump returned to the White House on Wednesday 7th October, less than a week after testing positive for coronavirus. The President’s doctors have cleared him to resume public events from Saturday 10th October, with Mr Trump himself saying he feels “better than [he] did 20 years ago.” However, there are fears that the President is downplaying the severity of his illness as doctors revealed he was treated with a strong steroid and an experimental “antibody cocktail” which would not normally be used for milder cases.

• Almost 16,000 positive COVID-19 test results went unreported in the UK last weekend due to a technical glitch. The error meant that those who tested positive were notified of their result, but people they had been in contact with were unable to be traced. The error has since been rectified and the missing records added to the Public Health England daily totals for the 3rd and 4th October and tracers are working through the contacts of the positive cases.

• Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced new lockdown restrictions effective from this evening at 18:00. Pubs and restaurants in the central belt of Scotland will all be required to close until at least 25th October. Restrictions will also be in place across the rest of the country, with no alcohol allowed to be served indoors and reduced opening hours for bars.

• Cases continue to increase in Spain, where approximately 10,000 new cases are being reported daily. New restrictions have been implemented over the past week to stop the spread of the disease, which includes a partial lockdown in Madrid.

• South Africa has officially reopened for travellers after its airports and borders were closed for six months due to the pandemic. However, travellers will not be admitted from countries deemed high-risk. Visitors from all nations on the African continent are now allowed to enter the country, as are travellers from countries with lower rates of infection than South Africa, such as Canada, China, and Germany. Over 50 countries including the UK and US remain on a “red list” meaning no tourists can enter the country except from certain business travellers with essential skills.

• The border conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues as the defence ministry of the Nagorno- Karabakh enclave reported another 26 deaths among its military, pushing the total to 376 since the conflict erupted on 27th September. Senior officials on both sides of the conflict have been invited to Moscow for truce talks on neutral ground. Russia’s foreign ministry confirmed that the officials have agreed to the talks and preparations are underway.

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COVID-19

TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES TOTAL DEATHS PATIENTS RECOVERED 36,761,333 1,066,956 27,673,862

09.10.2020 - Worldometer

COVID-19 – UK

• The total confirmed UK COVID-19 cases as of 8th October is 561,815 with 42,202 deaths according to GOV.UK. As of 8th October the European for Disease Prevention and Control have reported the 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 for the UK to be 201.9.

• A technical error last weekend meant that almost 16,000 cases of coronavirus went unreported, delaying efforts to trace close contacts of those infected. Public Health England said that 15,841 cases between 25th September and 2nd October were accidentally omitted from the UK’s daily case figures. The glitch has since been resolved, and the missing cases were added onto Saturday and Sunday’s figures of 12,872 and 22,961 respectively.

• Official figures show that three times as many people have died from COVID-19 than from flu and pneumonia in England and Wales this year.

• Chancellor Rishi Sunak is set to outline the next stage of the Job Support Scheme later today, Friday 9th October. The new financial support scheme is expected to be offered over a six-month period with a review at the three-month point. The Job Support Scheme will replace the furlough scheme from 1st November and will allow eligible employees to work one-third of their regular hours and receive three quarters of their normal salaries for six months.

• Most of Scotland will see a ban on the sale and consumption of alcohol indoors in bars and restaurants from Friday 9th October for at least 2 weeks, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced on Wednesday 7th October. Indoor hospitality venues and unlicensed cafes et cetera can operate until 18:00. Further localised restrictions are in place with Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Lanarkshire, Ayrshire and Arran, Lothian and Forth Valley areas closed for both indoor and outdoor operations. Those in the central belt of Scotland have also been asked to avoid public transport unless absolutely necessary and nationally, shops have been asked to return to the earlier measures they took at the beginning of lockdown namely, 2 metre distancing and one-way systems.

• Prime Minister Boris Johnson could announce new lockdown measures as early as Monday 12th October in areas where COVID-19 has soared. Manchester, Liverpool, and Newcastle are expected to be restricted further and tighter restrictions in London could be implemented in the coming weeks as the capital sees cases continue to rise with more than 6,200 recorded in the last week. The 3-tier system for local lockdowns is still being discussed.

• The UK economy expanded in August, showing a 2.1% growth boosted by the government’s Eat Out to Help Out discount scheme. However, despite being the fourth consecutive month of growth, 2.1% is still below expectations, and is 9.2% smaller than it was prior to the pandemic.

• More than 450 heritage organisations across England are set to receive the first wave of a £1.57 billion government recovery fund to help them through the coronavirus pandemic. The Culture Recovery Fund 3 WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/9th October 2020

will provide a lifeline for sites such as Gloucester Cathedral, the Severn Valley Railway, and Blackpool’s Winter Gardens. The grant will allow many essential conservation projects to resume after being put on hold as visitor attractions closed during lockdown. • The local lockdown in Caerphilly, Wales, is to be extended for at least another week due to a spike in cases. Figures from Public Health Wales show 60.2 cases per 100,000 people in the region over the past week.

• A month after Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised a force of COVID-secure marshals to ensure social distancing rules in towns and cities, many cities facing lockdown report no marshals have been recruited. Manchester, Leeds, and Nottingham city councils say they have been unable to recruit for the positions due to lack of funding and guidance from the government. Just four councils among the top 100 hit with COVID-19 have successfully filled the positions with others preferring to rely their own resources within the police and other partnerships.

• In Wales, Chief Medical Officer Dr Frank Atheron announced on Thursday 8th October 24 people had died of COVID-19 after an outbreak at the Royal Glamorgan hospital in Rhondda Cyon Taf. Other hospitals are being closely monitored after tracing back to the same outbreak.

COVID-19- OTHER COUNTRIES

Brazil Brazil has been the epicentre of the pandemic in Latin America, although, over the last ten weeks, authorities reported a decrease in the number of fatalities in most states. This includes São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Bahia. Despite the decrease in deaths, new infections continue to rise. The country remains just behind India and the United States in terms of total confirmed cases. China There is hope that the annual Asian Golden Week holiday, which is dubbed "the world's largest human migration" as it usually sees millions of Chinese tourists travelling internationally, will boost the country’s economy. China, alongside South Korea and Japan, is encouraging domestic travel to help boost the absence of foreign travellers and help keep their tourism industries afloat. In Singapore, domestic tourism is practically impossible, while native Singaporeans are more likely to stay home and spend it in the city, the state’s tourism industry has been practically destroyed. As a result, the government has introduced a S$230m relief bill for the industry.

France Infections to date have exceeded 580,000 with more than 1,200 clusters identified across the country. Authorities in Paris are set to introduce new measures as cases continue to rise. On 2nd October, Minister of Health Olivier Véran stated that “since yesterday, in the last 24 hours, Paris has passed the threshold that would put it in the maximum alert category.”

Hospitals throughout the country have reported an increase in intensive care admissions. The Conseil Scientifique, the government advisory body, called for urgent action as they forecast 3,800-12,400 extra deaths related to COVID-19 by 1st November. Despite this, they noted that the situation is less concerning than in March. Moreover, the Assemblée Nationale, voted the extension of the bill that allows the government to enforce COVID-19 measures at least until March 2021.

India On 3rd October, India’s health ministry reported that more than 100,000 people have died since the beginning of the pandemic, however, this figure could be higher due to suspected underreporting. Available data indicates that even though infections have somewhat fallen since mid-September, they remain high. 4 WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/9th October 2020

Infections to date have exceeded 6,500,000.

Maharashtra, one of India's largest and richest states, holds the highest number of infections and death toll in the whole of India. Maharashtra and Karnataka comprise approximately 45 percent of the total fatalities in the country. Additionally, authorities are monitoring the northern state of Punjab where figures are rising at a steady rate. Despite this, India is planning to ease more restrictions in a bid to restart the economy from 15th October. For example, this month, cinemas will reopen with limited capacity whilst some schools will be allowed to reopen in certain regions.

Ireland Ireland is also experiencing a steady increase in infections. On 3rd October, authorities reported the highest increase in cases since April. The country is planning on implementing tougher action on rule-breakers due to this rise.

Israel On 2nd October, Israel registered 7,639 new COVID-19 infections, moving the virus tally above the 250,000 mark two weeks after the implementation of a second stringent national lockdown, introduced on 18th September. Prime Minister Netanyahu has emphasised that the strict lockdown policies may remain in place for the foreseeable future if rates do not show improvement. Despite the continued rise in cases across the Gaza strip, reports indicate that one of the two laboratories analysing tests has halted operations due to a shortage of materials, halving testing capacity and further pressurising an already precarious medical situation. As of 1st October, the Ministry of Health in Gaza has reported at least 3,075 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 22 total deaths. Italy Italy’s cumulative number of infections and fatality rates are among the lowest in Europe and continue to oppose the trend of European countries experiencing a surge in cases. Unlike Spain and France, the rate of infections remains low and does not seem to be increasing. Most recently, regions across the nation have implemented new health measures to keep a handle on its second wave of infections. For example, Lazio, which includes the capital Rome, issued an order mandating the use of face coverings in public. The measure has been in effect from 3rd October. Italy’s state of emergency, which is due to expire on 15th October, will possibly be extended until 31st January 2021.

Japan Japan will reportedly ease some restrictions on overseas travel this month, prioritising ten countries; this includes Australia, New Zealand, and Vietnam. The number of cases in the country has seen a steady decrease in recent weeks.

Nigeria Scientists in Nigeria have developed a cheaper and faster test kit that will enable the testing capacity to be considerably enhanced in a country struggling with kit shortages and chronic under-testing of its massive population (the largest in Africa). The new test is cheaper than other kits and can give results in less than 40 minutes. Nigeria has tested only about 500,000 of its 200 million citizens, with most of its test kits having to be imported from China.

Malaysia Malaysia has seen a record daily increase of new cases on 2nd October. Health Director-General Noor Hisham Abdullah noted that the government continues to closely monitor the situation and necessary restrictions will be implemented if cases continue to surge. It is understood that new clusters of infections were discovered in detention centres and large gatherings, which remain banned. As such the government has advised the public to continue to follow the health guidelines to avoid a resurgence of the disease.

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Peru Peru remains the country with the highest mortality rate in the world and has now registered more than 33,000 deaths and 830,000 confirmed infections. Despite this, data indicates that infections are slowing. The nationwide state of emergency is in place at least until the end of the month, although, some restrictions on international travel are starting to ease. For example, from 5th October, the country resumed flights to Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Panama. Spain Cases continue to increase in Spain, where approximately 10,000 new cases are being reported daily. New restrictions have been implemented over the past week to stop the spread of the disease, which includes a partial lockdown in Madrid. From 3rd October, under these new restrictions, residents in Madrid were to be prevented from leaving their home districts for essential purposes only and social gatherings were to be limited to six people. On Thursday 8th October however, the high court rejected the measures stating “they harmed the fundamental rights and freedoms” of the people of Madrid. The decision means citizens cannot be fined for breaking the rules. The total number of infections since the pandemic has surpassed 810,000.

South Africa South Africa has reopened to international flights, ending a more than six-month cessation on international travel. Arriving passengers must provide a negative COVID-19 test issued no more than 72 hours before their departure, as well as proof of travel insurance to cover COVID-19 test and quarantine costs should they have symptoms during their visit. Tourists are still not permitted from a list of more than 50 countries, including Russia, the UK, and the US. South Africa has also reopened its land borders to allow visitors from Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and Zimbabwe

Turkey Turkish Minister of Health Fahrettin Koca defined the number of daily new COVID-19 ‘patients’ as those who are symptomatic, revealing that the Ministry had been excluding asymptomatic cases from official figures and confirming longstanding concerns over transparency. The Turkish Medical Association and opposition lawmakers slammed the government and shared a document purportedly displaying the number of positive cases as 29,377 on 10th September, much higher than the 1,512 ‘patients’ that had been announced that day. On 2nd October, 1,442 new cases and 63 deaths were officially reported in Turkey, with the curve appearing to flatten out to some degree based on these figures.

United Arab Emirates On 3rd October, the United Arab Emirates reported its highest daily number of cases of COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic, recording 1,181 new infections over the course of 24 hours. It must also be noted that the health authority is making significant strides with testing capacity, most notably, with the development of a new LAMP portable testing kit, Loop-mediated Isothermal Amplification method, can purportedly provide accurate test results in 45 minutes.

United States In the United States, President Donald Trump was hospitalized at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center after both he and First Lady Melania tested positive for COVID-19. It is reported that President Trump was treated with the Remdesivir, an experimental drug which allegedly shortens the duration of the symptoms. There were contradictory reports as to how severe the symptoms shown by the President were. Despite this, Trump returned to the White House on Monday 5th October. Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate for president, announced that he had tested negative for COVID-19. Biden attended an election debate with Trump on 29th September. The United States remain the worst-hit country in the world, with North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Utah, and Montana being the states with the highest daily infection rates.

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Useful Information Sources ➢ UK wide – Public Health England ➢ Scotland – Scottish Government ➢ Northern Ireland – NISRA ➢ COVID-19 deaths in England & Wales – ONS ➢ COVID-19 Statistics – Worldometer – Johns Hopkins University

WORLD NEWS

Azerbaijan Fighting along both sides of the border separating Azerbaijan and the un-recognised Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh continues with little hope of a ceasefire. France, Russia, and the US, who form the Minsk Group of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), described the situation as “an unacceptable threat to the stability of the region”. Responding to calls for a cease fire, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said, “The international community once again calls for a ceasefire. What will happen afterwards, will Armenia be led to withdraw immediately from Azerbaijani territories?" He added "Can you come up with a solution? No, so it's just the same calls for the last 30 years." Armenia suggests Turkey has instigated the violence and is encouraging Azerbaijan to ignore the requests of the OSCE and Azerbaijan is requesting Armenia’s withdrawal from the region to cease hostilities.

Denmark The Danish Government summoned the Iranian ambassador on Wednesday 7th October due to rumours circulating suggesting the embassy had contacted Iranian women living in Denmark. It was suggested the women were pressurised into having their divorces religiously validated and forced to accept divorce deals made by imams (including giving up custody of children upon remarriage). Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod stated the Scandinavian country will “in no way accept if an embassy is involved in cases that are contrary to Danish law — and contrary to our basic democratic values in Denmark… The kind of religious control that we have heard about in the media does not belong in Denmark,” he added.

France Storm Alex brought devastation to parts of France and Italy last weekend with 12 deaths reported and 21 people missing. Heavy rain and flooding swept away buildings, bridges, vehicles, and roads. 900 rescuers, 500 police officers and the army are helping with the emergency operation in the area and around 700 people have been evacuated.

Greece Right wing leader and founder of the Golden Dawn party, Nikos Michaloliakos, has been found guilty of leading a criminal organisation on Wednesday 7th October by a Greek court. Amongst the 68 defendants were 18 former lawmakers from the party which prosecutors said amounted to the neo-Nazi populist political party being an organised crime outfit. The trail, which lasted 5 years and began in 2015 considered hundreds of testimonies and examined thousands of pages of evidence. More than 15,000 people gathered outside the courthouse for the verdict announcement which was met with cheers.

Indonesia Wednesday 7th October saw the second day of fighting in Indonesia as police detained more than 400 protesters. The protesters, some armed with Molotov cocktails and weapons, demanded the government

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revoke a new employment law critics say will favour businesses and negatively affect workers and the environment. Demonstrations at 12 different locations resulted in the use of water cannons and tear gas.

Kuwait Emir Sheikh Nawaf al Ahmad al-Sabah, Kuwait’s new ruler, announced Wednesday 7th October that Sheikh Meshaal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah is the new crown prince of the Gulf state. Parliament must approve the appointment on Thursday and the Al-Sabah family must give their blessing to the nominee. Sheikh Meshaal is the younger brother of the late Emir who died last week. They enjoyed a close relationship, and he is said to have good relationships with Kuwait’s neighbours such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Mexico Hurricane warnings are in effect in the North Western area of the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico as storm Delta forces many locals and tourists to seek refuge in storm shelters whilst also adhering to COVID-19 safety measures. Offshore platforms in the gulf have asked non-essential staff to evacuate as large destructive waves are expected along the coast.

Russia The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed on Tuesday 6th October that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok. "This once again confirms the unequivocal evidence that Alexei Navalny was the victim of an attack with a chemical nerve agent from the Novichok group," a statement from the German Chancellery said. Germany also called on Russia to explain itself. Russia is still denying it’s involvement with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stating "It seems that their [Germany, France, and the EU] Russophobic fervour is so strong that it prevents them from exercising good judgement. We regret that trade and economic cooperation is becoming increasingly politicised."

Spain Anti-virus software founder John McAfee was arrested by Spanish border police Wednesday 7th October attempting to fly to Turkey. The 75-year-old is wanted for tax evasion in the US and is currently awaiting extradition; he could face up to 30 years in prison if found guilty of fraud believed to have taken place between 2014 and 2018.

United Kingdom An independent report into child sex abuse at the Church of England by the Independent Inquiry into Child Sex Abuse (IICSA) has found a culture existed within the Church where the offenders received more support than the victims. Going further it suggested the Church of England “facilitated it becoming a place where abusers could hide.” The report suggests 390 people associated with the Church were convicted for child sexual abuse between 1940 and 2018. The report also found 2,504 safeguarding concerns reported to the Church in 2018 together with 449 concerns regarding recent child sex abuse were many cases were not taken seriously. The Church of England reacted by stating "While apologies will never take away the effects of abuse on victims and survivors, we today want to express our shame about the events that have made those apologies necessary. The whole Church must learn lessons from the Inquiry."

The new “Death or Serious Injury Authorised Professional Practice” policy announced by the UK Police Federation in July has been met with criticism recently by campaign groups and the families of those who died in police custody. The policy sets out guidance on how police forces should “protect officers legally, ensure their welfare is looked after as well as assist with the investigation that follows.” The charity Inquest, who carry out casework and monitoring on custody deaths in England and Wales suggests the anonymity given to police officers in this new policy “could undermine the integrity of investigations into police related deaths.” However, Steve Hartshorn (Police Federation of England and Wales) advised “There has been a deaths or serious injury policy in place for firearms for many years which has been tested through the courts and has set a standard that protects officers and assists with the provision of best evidence… I am pleased to say this new

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policy from the College of Policing will afford those same protections to all our officers and staff.” The new policy comes in the wake of George Floyd’s death in the US and amid demands for more transparency in the police.

United States of America The US Department of Justice announced on Wednesday 7th October charges had been brought against the two remaining ISIL fighters allegedly responsible for the beheadings and torture of Western Hostages between 2012 and 2015. Dubbed ‘the Beatles’ due to their UK citizenship and British accents they were suspected to be responsible for the torture and execution of 12 hostages, 4 of whom were American. The most famous alleged member of the group, ‘Jihadi John’, was killed in a drone strike in 2015 and the fourth Aine Lesley Davis was sentenced to seven years in prison in Turkey in 2017. El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey have been in US custody since 2019. After promising the suspects would be spared death penalties the UK government agreed to help the US by sharing evidence needed for a conviction. They are charged with: Conspiracy to commit hostage taking resulting in death; Hostage taking resulting in death; Conspiracy to murder United States citizens outside of the United States; Conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists - hostage taking and murder - resulting in death; Conspiracy to provide material support to a designated foreign terrorist organisation resulting in death. If convicted, Kotey and Elsheikh could face up to life in prison.

The only Vice-Presidential debate of 2020 took place in Utah Wednesday 9th October pitting democratic VP nominee Kamala Harris against Republican candidate Mike Pence. The meeting of the two candidates, more civil than the Trump Biden clash the previous week, was not without its moments. Kamala Harris labelled Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic as “the greatest failure of any presidential administration” and Pence claimed Biden would raise taxes on his first day in office. Harris and Pence’s unsubstantiated claims were batted back and forth during what seemed to be an underwhelming performance by all involved.

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INSIGHTS

Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering a myriad of subjects. These publications can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website.

THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

After initial rumblings of conflict in July, the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has once again ignited with the worst fighting since the 1990s, and has seen United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, call for a de-escalation of tensions and a resumption of talks between the two sides. The conflict, a legacy of the Soviet Union, has left Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as belonging to Azerbaijan, with more landmine accidents per capita than anywhere else in the world and threatens to destabilise the region if fighting continues with a risk of drawing in other regional actors. This article will investigate the origins of the conflict and the reasons for its most recent escalation. In addition to this, it will look at the wider ramifications of a protracted conflict.

The Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict has been described as the longest running conflict of the former Soviet Union and originates from Stalin giving the autonomous enclave of NK, which is 95% ethnically Armenia, ‘arbitrarily and illegally’ to Soviet Azerbaijan. In the final stages of the Soviet Union, when the centralised system of the Soviet Empire was weakening, the legislature in NK were able to pass a resolution in 1988 in an attempt to join Armenia and, whilst swiftly suppressed by Soviet troops deployed to the region, it demonstrates the attitudes of citizens within the enclave. Months before the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Armenia was able to declare its independence with NK following suit, before finally being able to take full control of the enclave in 1993, as well as what amounted to 20% of surrounding Azerbaijani land. It is estimated that between 1988 and 1994 an estimated 30,000 people were killed and a further million (600,000 of whom were Azerbaijani) were displaced by the conflict before a ceasefire could be introduced, facilitated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, co-chaired by France, Russia and the USA. Established in 1994 to help find a resolution to the dispute, the Minsk Group have yet to make meaningful progress; negotiations in the region have been ongoing since 1992. Read more.

AFRICA’S GREAT GREEN WALL In September 2020, the United Nations released a report to update the progress that had been made by the Great Green Wall Initiative (GGWI). The GGWI was launched in 2007 by the African Union and aimed to ‘restore and sustainably manage land in the Saharo-Sahel region’ by restoring 100 million hectares, over 8,000km, of degraded land by 2030 from Senegal to Djibouti. The initiative, which has been described by the African Union and the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization as ‘Africa’s flagship initiative to combat land degradation, desertification and drought’, is hoped to be a key solution for the effects of climate change being felt throughout Africa through the utilisation of effective land-management and the growing of millions of trees. By the time the project is completed in 2030 it is thought that the restored land will be able to absorb 250 million metric tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere, as well as hoping to recharge the local water tables and increase rainfall through the establishment of microclimates. In addition to this, it is though that the initiative will improve human security through the reduction of drought and famine, as well as increased opportunities that would help to reduce conflict and migration with the scheme estimated to create 10 million jobs. Because of the initiative it has been reported that land is being restored ‘at an unprecedented rate’ with increased rainfall being recorded and food security subsequently increasing. In the UN’s September report, it was found that between 2007-2018, 20 million hectares of land had been restored, with 350,000 jobs created and over $90 million in revenue generated as a result of the GGWI. Of these 350,000 jobs, the report details

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that 120,000 were farm-related and 220,000 received training ‘on sustainable production of agro-pastoral and non- timber products’ which has had a direct impact on reducing rural poverty in the regions. The training by the initiative has also seen farmers in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger play an active role in keeping the project sustainable, having been taught to plant around existing trees and sprouts, rather than ploughing them over, as well as about the dangers of over grazing. Whilst the 20 million hectares is indeed a good sign it is also important to note that this figure also includes wider areas including related regional initiatives and not only the ‘strict intervention zones’ counted in the GGWI comprising the 100 million hectare goal. So far only four million hectares have been restored in these areas of ‘strict intervention’ amounting to 4%. Other issues with the project also persist such as the fact that planted trees have a survival rate of around 20% in the most arid regions of the Sahel, as well as there being a lack of mechanisms to monitor progress. There has also been an issue with prioritising the project and receiving funding, with the UN commenting that in order to reach its 2030 goal the GGWI would have to restore 8.2 million hectares of land a year at a cost of $4.3 billion. Despite the setbacks, the fact that the initiative has succeeded in bringing together 21 African nations in a shared project to help combat climate change should not be downplayed and the success of the project would see security benefits across the region and environmental benefits across the world.

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