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Kebangkitan Party ID: Analisis Perilaku Memilih Dalam Politik Lokal Di Indonesia

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Kebangkitan Party ID: Analisis Perilaku Memilih Dalam Politik Lokal Di Indonesia Haryanto, Kebangkitan Party ID: Analisis Perilaku JurnalMemilih Ilmu dalam Sosial Politik dan Lokal Ilmu di Indonesia Politik Volume 17, Nomor 3, Maret 2014 (291-308) ISSN 1410-4946 Kebangkitan Party ID: Analisis Perilaku Memilih dalam Politik Lokal di Indonesia Haryanto • Abstract This article explains that the party identifi cation (party ID) has become the main factor of voting behavior in local politics in Indonesia. Voters no longer dominant consider the proximity factor, both ethnic and regional proximity in determining vote choice, as a general conclusion that has been used to explain voting behavioral in local politics in Indonesia. This article confi rms that voters tend to conform to the party then make a choice their voices to candidates that are o ered by the party. Keywords: voting behavioral; party ID; local politics Abstrak Artikel ini menjelaskan bahwa identifi kasi partai (party ID) telah menjadi faktor utama perilaku memilih dalam politik lokal di Indonesia. Pemilih tidak lagi dominan melihat faktor kedekatan (proximity), baik kedekatan etnis maupun daerah dalam menentukan pilihan suara, sebagaimana kesimpulan umum yang selama ini digunakan untuk menjelaskan perilaku memilih dalam politik lokal di Indonesia. Artikel ini menegaskan bahwa pemilih cenderung mengindentikkan diri dengan partai, kemudian menentukan pilihan suaranya kepada kandidat yang diusung oleh partainya. Kata kunci: perilaku memilih; party ID; politik lokal Pendahuluan melihat variabel socio-religious, socio-cultural, Tulisan ini tentang perilaku memilih dalam ataupun sosio-economic (Gaffar, 1992; King, politik lokal kontemporer. Melalui pendekatan 2003; Ananta, et al., 2004). Sementara itu, tulisan psikologis dalam model voting behavior, ini menggambarkan orientasi pemilih terhadap tulisan ini menyatakan bahwa identifikasi politik dipengaruhi oleh loyalitas partisan partai memengaruhi posisi optimal perilaku (kedekatan pada partai politik) yang terbangun memilih yang selama ini jarang digunakan sejak lama, dan kekuatan jangka pendek seperti oleh ilmuwan politik untuk menjelaskan popularitas kandidat berdasarkan agenda karakteristik elektoral dalam politik lokal di kebijakan. Adapun lokus penelitian pada Indonesia (Liddle dan Mujani, 2007; Mujani, pelaksanaan Pemilihan Gubernur (Pilgub) et al., 2012). Kebanyakan studi yang ada lebih Sulawesi Selatan tahun 2013 dengan fokus pada dua kabupaten di wilayah provinsi tersebut. x Staf Pengajar Program Studi Ilmu Pemerintahan FISIP Universitas Hasanuddin Makassar Email: [email protected] 291 Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Volume 17, Nomor 3, Maret 2014 Sejak reformasi bergulir tahun 1999 kajian perilaku memilih telah beranjak pada dan dalam tiga rangkaian Pemilu nasional faktor psikologis–sebuah perspektif dalam terakhir (legislatif dan presiden), ilmuwan kajian perilaku memilih di Indonesia yang telah menawarkan bukti kuat bahwa faktor belum populer sebagai kesimpulan. Akan penentu yang paling penting dari perilaku tetapi, secara umum telah mulai diminati memilih di Indonesia telah bergerak pada dengan berbagai kritikan terhadap pendekatan faktor-faktor psikologis dan ekonomi politik sosiologis dengan menyimpulkan melemahnya (pilihan rasional) (Mujani, et al., 2012). Kalau politik aliran di Indonesia (Ufen, 2008: 20). persepsinya positif, pemilih cenderung memilih Dua studi di Kabupaten Luwu Timur dan presiden atau partai yang sedang berkuasa, Kabupaten Pinrang menjelaskan faktor sebaliknya kalau persepsinya negatif, pemilih dominan yang memengaruhi pilihan suara cenderung memilih calon presiden atau berdasarkan kedekatan pada partai politik. partai yang dianggap oposisi. Penemuan ini Walaupun kandidat menggunakan representasi bertolak belakang dengan conventional wisdom kedaerahan dan etnis dalam menentukan (kepercayaan umum) sebelumnya, bahwa komposisi pasangan calon, terbukti tidak begitu kebanyakan pemilih di Indonesia didorong oleh signifi kan terhadap perolehan suara mereka. faktor-faktor agama, kedaerahan, etnis, dan Di dua kabupaten yang diteliti nampak jelas kelas sosial sebagaimana dalam model perilaku adanya straight-ticket voting, dimana hampir memilih sosiologis (Liddle, 2012: 155). Namun, dipastikan bahwa warga yang memilih dalam Liddle menyimpulkan bahwa politik aliran partai koalisi, juga memilih kandidat pasangan yang selama ini diyakini sebagai pendekatan yang diusung. Singkatnya, identifi kasi partai sosiologis, hanya cocok dikaji pada ranah telah menemukan “jati dirinya” sebagai bagian politik lokal (Mujani, et al., 2012; Liddle, 2012). penting untuk memenangkan suara dalam Simpulan tersebut sebagaimana tesis umum ranah lokal kontemporer. Identifikasi yang dalam politik lokal, bahwa determinasi sosial dimaksud disini, akan lebih fokus pada pemilih budaya telah menjadi bagian dari dilema politik partai yang memilih pasangan yang menang di Indonesia (Nordholt, 2005: 67), termasuk dalam Pilgub. mengenai perilaku memilih (Erman, 2007; Hanif, 2009). Pertanyaannya kemudian, apakah Model Perilaku Memilih gagasan konsepsi sosiologis begitu dominan Setidaknya terdapat tiga pendekatan menentukan pilihan politik dalam ranah yang selama ini menjadi basis dalam membaca lokal? Apakah studi politik benar-benar tidak perilaku memilih yaitu The Columbia Study, The harus meninggalkan pendekatan sosiologis Michigan Model, dan Rational Choice (Bartels, 2012; dan beralih pada pendekatan psikologis dan Roth, 2008). Ketiga pendekatan tersebut lebih pilihan rasional dalam mengkaji perilaku dikenal dengan istilah sosiologis, psikologis memilih lokal di Indonesia. Puncaknya, apakah dan pilihan rasional. Selain itu, terdapat juga ada kaitan secara relevan antara orientasi pendekatan berbeda yang dikembangkan oleh nasional dan orientasi lokal dalam politik, Lau dan Redlawsk (2006) yakni rational choice, antara kandidat/partai dan pemilih khususnya early socialization, fast and frugal, dan bounded menjelang rangkaian pemilu legislatif dan rationality. Dalam tulisan ini, hanya menguraikan Pilpres mendatang? secara singkat ketiga pendekatan pertama sebagai Untuk itu, melalui basis analisis geopolitik, landasan memahami voting behavior dalam kasus profil sosiologis, dan statistik perolehan yang diteliti. suara, tulisan ini mencoba membuktikan The Columbia Study dipelopori oleh bahwa politik lokal kontemporer dalam Lezarsfeild pada tahun 1940. The Columbia 292 Haryanto, Kebangkitan Party ID: Analisis Perilaku Memilih dalam Politik Lokal di Indonesia Study kemudian lebih dikenal dengan model basis analisis utama dari model ini adalah atau pendekatan sosiologis. Pendekatan kondisi sosial, bukan menjadikan individu sosiologis memperlihatkan bahwa ada pengaruh sebagai pusat analisis. Adapun instrumen antara nilai-nilai sosiologis yang menempel yang menjadi basis analisis sosiologis yakni pada diri individu yang memengaruhi perilaku agama, etnis, pendidikan, tempat tinggal (desa- seseorang dalam politik. Nilai-nilai sosiologis kota), pekerjaan, gender, umur dsb (Mujani tersebut berupa agama, kelas sosial, etnis, et al., 2012). Begitu halnya dengan geopolitik daerah, tradisi keluarga dan lain-lain (Bartels, (kedaerahan), juga merupakan basis analisa 2012: 240). perilaku politik dalam model sosiologis. Berangkat dari teori lingkaran sosial, Pendekatan perilaku memilih selanjutnya setiap manusia terikat dalam berbagai lingkaran yakni The Michigan Model, sebuah metode untuk sosial seperti misalnya keluarga, tempat kerja, mengetahui perilaku memilih yang berkembang pertemanan dan lain sebagainya, teori ini awal tahun 1950-an. The Michigan Model kemudian digunakan untuk menjelaskan kemudian dikenal dengan nama pendekatan perilaku memilih. Asumsinya bahwa seorang psikologis yang uraiannya secara lengkap pemilih hidup dalam konteks tertentu: status dapat dilihat dalam “The American Voter” (1960) ekonominya, agamanya, tempat tinggalnya, ditulis oleh Campbell, Converse, Miller, dan pekerjaan dan usianya, sehingga mendefi nisikan Stokes. Berbeda dengan model sosiologis, lingkaran sosial yang memengaruhi keputusan dalam model psikologis, adanya keterikatan/ pemilih, disebabkan kontrol dan tekanan dorongan psikologis yang membentuk orientasi sosialnya (Roth, 2008: 24). Menurut Roth (2008: politik seseorang. Ikatan psikologis tersebut 37), model sosiologis dapat memberi penjelasan disebabkan oleh adanya perasaan kedekatan yang sangat baik pada perilaku memilih dengan partai atau kandidat. Persepsi dan yang konstan. Hal ini disebabkan kerangka penilaian individu terhadap kandidat atau struktural masing-masing individu yang tema-tema yang diangkat (pengaruh jangka hanya berubah secara perlahan. Namun, model pendek) sangat berpengaruh terhadap pilihan sosiologis tidak dapat menjelaskan mengenai pemilu. Secara sederhana menurut Roth (2008: penyebab pindahnya pilihan politik individu. 38), pendekatan psikologis berusaha untuk Hal ini dapat dipahami mengingat bahwa menerangkan faktor-faktor apa saja yang Gambar 1. Funnel Causality (diadaptasi dari Campbell et al., 1960 oleh Dalton, 2002) 293 Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Volume 17, Nomor 3, Maret 2014 memengaruhi keputusan pemilu melalui Model ini menjelaskan keputusan trias determinant: identifikasi partai (Party suara individu didasarkan dalam tiga sikap: ID), orientasi kandidat dan orientasi isu. partisanship (keberpihakan), pendapat terhadap Penggambaran ini dapat dilihat dari penjelasan isu, dan citra kandidat. Keyakinan inilah yang Dalton bahwa proses perilaku memilih model paling dekat pada keputusan suara dan karena psikologis seperti sebuah saringan dalam itu memiliki
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