The Dynamics of Naval Shipbuilding : a Systems Approach
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Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1997 The dynamics of naval shipbuilding : a systems approach McCue, Timothy P http://hdl.handle.net/10945/8281 THE DYNAMICS OF NAVAL SHIPBUILDING - A SYSTEMS APPROACH by Timothy P. McCue r BA Physics, College of Holy Cross Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering, SUNY Stonybrook Submitted to the Department of Ocean Engineering in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees of NAVAL ENGINEER and MASTER OF SCIENCE in OCEAN SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology June 1997 S3 1997 Timothy McCue. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants MIT permission to reproduce and distribute copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Y)t$ /4+cV\\oe nn MW&k fYYC^tV f/\ This thesis is dedicated to the grandfather I never knew LCDR Eugene Patrick McCue USNR Acknowledgments: Many people at many different levels contributed to this work. I was able to travel all over the country collecting information and interviewing people involved with Naval Ship Acquisition and Construction. From the LPD-17 Program Manager to the production planners at NASSCO to the manager of the Hardings plant at BIW, I found everyone to be passionate about what they do. I also found everyone willing to discuss new ideas and to try to find ways to improve the process. Without these discussions, the Ship Production Model would never have been created. I would like to thank the US Navy for the opportunity to attend MIT. The knowledge I have gained over the past three years has already proven invaluable and will be a true asset in the years ahead. I would like to thank the Navy staff at MIT for their extraordinary support. The creative atmosphere spawned by Captain Alan Brown and LCDR Mark Welsh allowed free thinking and exploration into new areas. My many discussions with each of these officers has led to a better formulation of the role of Engineering Duty Officers. Their advice and counsel is very much appreciated. I would like to thank Professor John Sterman and Jim Hines of the System Dynamics Group at Sloan for their indoctrination into System Dynamics. I found the field fascinating and plan on continuing to use modeling in my career. Taking classes at Sloan provided a different perspective than the engineering courses in the 13A curriculum. I feel both perspectives are very important. Specifically I would like to thank Jim Lyneis of Pugh Roberts Associates, Dave Philo at Ingalls Shipbuilding, Eric Surestedt of Bath Iron Works, Peter Jaquith and Matt Tedesco of NASSCO, Tom Rivers of NAVSEA and Phil Koenig of NSWC Carderock. All of these professionals took the time to listen to my ideas and provide valuable feedback. Their grasp of the realities of shipbuilding were critical to this work. Finally I would like to thank my family and friends for their support during the entire time at MIT. I tried to balance school and the real world to the best of my ability. Sometimes it took a tug from one of my kids, Katlyn and Luke, to "...stop and smell the roses." Karen, as usual, kept me grounded lest I forget about what is really important. I thank her for her patience and unflagging support. --'ry "SCHOOL S3-5101 The Dynamics of Naval Shipbuilding: A Systems Approach to Project Management Assessment by Timothy P. McCue Submitted to the Department of Ocean Engineering in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees of NAVAL ENGINEER and MASTER OF SCIENCE in Ocean Systems Management May 1997 Abstract: Project management in the shipbuilding industry is a complex and misunderstood field. Ship programs are often delivered behind schedule and over budget. Many external factors can cause a relatively well run program to experience problems. These include material shortages, labor problems or customer generated design changes. Even harder for a manager to understand are internally generated problems from sources like overtime use, hiring and firing policy, and cost estimating. Project managers do not understand or have the tools to measure many of the dynamic features of a construction process. These features include feedback, time delays and nonlinear cause and effect relationships among project components. In general, people have a hard time dealing with nonlinear relationships in their mental models of the world. When three or four of these relationships are operating at the same time, the resulting complexity becomes very hard to unravel intuitively. Experienced program managers can describe dynamics and understand they are operating on the system. They cannot quantify the strength or impact of these features on their project. The purpose of this paper is to use System Dynamics modeling to examine the Navy Ship Acquisition and Construction process and to increase the knowledge and understanding concerning the management of large Navy shipbuilding projects. System Dynamics captures the many complex facets of ship construction simultaneously and examines their behavior over time. Using simulation, project managers in the Navy and in the private sector can make better, more quantitative decisions. 1 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS: CHAPTER 1 11 1.1 - Introduction 11 1.2 - Motivation 15 1.3 -Outline 19 CHAPTER 2 - LITERATURE SEARCH 23 2.1 - The Affordability Crisis 23 2. 1 Reference Modes 25 2.12 Definition of Terms 33 2.13 Causal Loops 37 2.2 - Acquisition Reform 45 2.2 Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) 46 2.22 Standards and Specifications 47 2.23 The Affordability Through Commonality Program 50 2.3 - Commercial Shipbuilding Initiatives 54 2.31 MARJTECH 55 2.32 National Shipbuilding Research Program 57 2.33 Mid-Term Sealift Ship technology Development Program (MTSSTDP) 59 2.34 Lean Shipbuilding Initiative 61 2.4 Build Strategy Development 66 2.41 Description 67 2.42 Components 69 2.5 Dynamic Project Modeling 72 2.51 History - Ingalls Case Study 74 2.52 Ingalls Internal Use of the Shipbuilding Model 78 2.53 Halter Marine 82 2.54 Other Systems Dynamics Models 91 2.55 Potential 99 CHAPTER 3 - Shipyard Visits 101 3.1 - Ingalls Shipbuilding, Pascagoula, MI 104 3.11 History 105 3.12 Financial Status 105 3.13 Current Navy and Commercial Work 107 *"" 3.14 Future Strategic Plan 108 3.15 Shipyard Layout 1 09 3.16 Human Resource Management 1 1 3.17 Production Planning 112 3.18 Phases of Construction 1 13 3.19 Performance 119 3.1 10 Use of Simulation 120 3.111 Summary 122 1 3.2 - Bath iron Works, Bath, ME 124 3.21 History 124 3.22 Financial Status 125 3.23 Current Navy and Commercial Work 125 3.24 Future Strategic Plan 127 3.25 Shipyard Layout 128 3.26 Human Resource Management 129 3.27 Production Planning 130 3.28 Phases of Construction 131 3.29 Performance 138 3.210 Use of Simulation 138 3.211 Summary 139 3.3 - NASSCO, San Diego, CA 141 3.31 History 141 3.32 Financial Status 142 3.33 Current Navy and Commercial Work 143 3.34 Future Strategic Plan 144 3.35 Shipyard Layout 144 3.36 Human Resource Management 146 3.37 Production Planning 147 3.38 Phases of Construction 148 3.39 Performance 150 3.310 Use of Simulation 151 3.311 Summary 153 3.4 - Newport News Shipbuilding, Newport News , VA 154 3.41 History 154 3.42 Financial Status 155 3.43 Current Navy and Commercial Work 156 3.44 Future Strategic Plan 157 3.45 Shipyard Layout 157 3.5 - Avondale Shipbuilding, New Orleans, LA 159 3.21 History 159 3.22 Financial Status 159 3.23 Current Navy and Commercial Work 160 3 .24 Future Strategic Plan 160 3.25 Shipyard Layout 161 3.26 Use of Simulation 162 3.6 Summary 162 CHAPTER 4 - Ship Production Model Descriptions 164 4.1 - Model Development 166 4.1 Previous Project Models 167 4.12 Ship Production Characteristics 169 4.13 Model Features 170 4.2 Model Structure 173 4.21 Multi Phase Work Flow and Rework Sector 174 4.22 Labor Adjustment Sector 178 1 4.23 Phase Initiation and Schedule Completion 1 8 > 4.24 Financial Sector 185 4.25 Quality Effects 187 4.26 Productivity Effects 1 89 4.27 Shipyard Constraints 1 9 4.3 Base Model Run 193 4.3 1 Model Behavior - Base Case 1 94 4.4 Policy Investigation on SOCV Project 203 4.41 Effect of Quality on project Performance 203 4.42 Manning Levels 207 4.43 Overtime Policy 209 CHAPTER 5 - SOCV Case Studies - BIW VS Ingalls 214 5.1 - Ingalls vs. BIW on DDG-51 216 5.1 1 Key Events Schedule 216 5.12 Shipyard Suggestions 218 5.13 Qualitative Assessment 220 5.14 Performance of Bath vs. Ingalls on SOCV 222 5.2 Increase the Level of Pre-Outfitting 225 5.21 Problem Description and Reference Modes 226 5.22 Dynamic Hypothesis 228 l> 5.23 Analysis 229 5.24 Results 230 5.3 Choke Point Analysis and Investment in Infrastructure at BIW 232 5.31 Problem Description and Reference Modes 233 5.32 Dynamic Hypothesis 233 5.33 Analysis 234 5.34 Results 234 5.4 Additional Uses of Ship Production Model 236 5.5 Summary 239 CHAPTER 6 - Conclusions 241 6.1 Implications for the Navy Acquisition Process 242 6.2 Future Work 244 6.3 Flight Simulator 245 REFERENCES: 247 APPENDIX A: BUILD STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT 252 > Build Strategy Purpose 255 SOCV Description 255 C Shipyard Selection 256 Contractual Issues, dates and Schedules 257 Production Planning 263 Master Construction Schedule and Key Events 264 Block Breaks 268 Block Assembly Sequence 271 Material Procurement 274 Construction Stages 275 Detailed Design 276 Fabrication of Products 279 On Unit Construction 281 On Block Construction 283 On Board Construction 284 Summary 286 APPENDIX B: MODEL EQUATIONS 288 APPENDIX C: GLOSSARY OF TERMS 309 c c 95 TABLE OF TABLES: TABLE 2-1 - FORCE LEVELS AND EXPENDITURES 28 TABLE 2-2 - US