Agenda NORTH COUNTY Item# TRANSIT DISTRICT 12
STAFF REPORT RECEIVE MONTHLY PLANNING DIVISION REPORT
Time Sensitive 0 Consent 0
STAFF Receive Monthly Planning Division Report for the period of February 2016. RECOMMENDATION:
BACKGROUND The role of the Planning Division is to plan, design, schedule and monitor INFORMATION: NCTD' s transit service. Planning is also responsible for coordination with SANDAG and local governments to promote transit service, determine locations for bus stops, design transit oriented development ( TOD), and facilitate capital project planning and permitting. The Planning Division primarily supports the Operations and Development Services Divisions.
ATTACHMENT: 12A- Monthly Planning Report for the period of February 2016
FISCAL IMPACT: This staff report has no fiscal impact.
COMMITTEE REVIEW: None
STAFF CONTACT: Dahvia Lynch, Chief Planning Officer E-mail: dlynch@nctd. org Phone: 760- 966- 6654
Approved and/or authorized by the Board of Dire tors of the North County Transit District
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March 17, 2016 Board Meeting Staff Report No.: SR- 16-03-012 REVISED ATTACHMENT 12A
NORTH COUNTY TRANSIT DISTRICT -
Planning Division Monthly Report
For the Period of February 2016 Planning Division Monthly Report NORTH COUNTY March, 2016 TRANSIT DISTRICT
Planning Division
Summary
The role of the Planning Division is to plan, design, schedule and monitor NCTD' s transit service. Planning is also responsible for coordination with SANDAG and other local governments to promote transit service, determine locations for bus stops, design transit oriented development TOD), and facilitate capital project planning and permitting. The Planning Division supports the Operations and Development Services Divisions.
Service Planning- Quarterly Ridership Update
Transit Ridership Transit ridership is positively and negatively impacted by a number of internal and external factors. Internal factors include but are not limited to fare rates, service levels, and service quality. External factors include but are not limited to economic, employment, fuel pricing, and congestion.
Since May 2015 NCTD has seen a negative trend in ridership. NCTD' s ridership trends are consistent with national trends as evidenced by the APTA Transit Ridership Report, Third Quarter 2015 ( see Appendix A) covering July 2015 to September 2015. This trend was not expected, as NCTD' s ridership has reached record high levels in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2015. NCTD staff has been analyzing the ridership trends and is providing the Board with enhanced information to assist in the understanding of the trends.
Internal Factor Analysis NCTD has examined internal factors that could be influencing ridership. None of the internal factors most commonly affecting ridership, or other known factors, changed prior to or after the trend began in May 2015. Fare rates and service levels did not change ( aside from standard elimination of " School Tripper" bus routes in June), and NCTD has not seen an increase in customer complaints, or a decline in on time performance, that would suggest a decline in service quality.
However, NCTD did conduct a series of Absolute Work Windows ( AWWs), or weekend rail closures, resulting in a loss of all COASTER ridership over two weekends in May 2015. These closures are necessary to support improvements to rail infrastructure and capacity enhancing projects ( i. e., double -track) and are likely to increase in frequency over the next several years with the focus on completing double -track segments on this corridor. This internal factor has and will continue to exacerbate ridership decreases during specific periods such as October 2015, but is mode - specific and is not substantial enough to lead to an overall trend.
External Factor Analysis NCTD' s system -wide ridership was down bye -.-73. 6% during the quarter ended September 30, 2015 primarily due to a 6: 74.8% decrease in BREEZE ridership and 64.2% decrease in COASTER ridership during the same period. The trend of decreasing ridership is reflected in national transit ridership statistics, as well as regional and statewide data. The APTA Transit Ridership Report, Third Quarter 2015 covering July 2015 to September 2015, reports that ridership in the United States was down 1. 69% in the third quarter, and that ridership across North America ( including Canada) was down 1. 91 % during that period ( 1. 69% U. S., 2. 13% Canada).
By mode, commuter rail ridership is up by 0. 4% nationally, up by 2% among the statewide commuter rail operators, but down by 3. 2% for the southern California systems, COASTER and Metrolink ( COASTER ridership was down by 644.2%). Light rail ridership declined nationally and
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at the state level by 0. 4% and 2. 2%, respectively with SPRINTER declining by 3, 60. 8%. In contrast, data for the other system in the region, operated by MTS, show a 4. 4% increase in trolley ridership.
Bus ridership appears to have been hit the hardest during the quarter ended September 30, 2015 with national ridership declining by 3. 3%. Among the state systems carrying over a million passengers this quarter, bus ridership fell by 2. 7%. In southern California, the decline in ridership was higher than the national figure, dropping by 4. 7%, with MTS and NCTD experiencing a 6. 6% and 6-.74. 8% decline during this timeframe, respectively. Los Angeles ( LA Metro) and Orange County ( OCTA) also experienced significant drops in bus ridership, with LA Metro falling by 4. 2% and OCTA falling by 6. 2%.
This broad trend is assumed to be reflective of economic indicators, such as reduced unemployment and lowered fuel prices, and increases in automobile sales and vehicle miles traveled. A CNN report from January, 2016' indicated:
Automobile sales hit a record high in 2015. Here's why. Low gas prices, easy credit, strong job growth, and pent- up demand from years of depressed sales... In 2015, a major factor in the sales rebound was strong hiring by employers, who added some 2.3 million jobs... The growth in auto sales is expected to continue in 2016; most forecasts put sales this year above 18 million."
Vehicle miles traveled also reached a record high, breaking the previous record which occurred in 2007, just prior to the great recession. An article compiling Federal Highway Administration data across the nation stated:
Vehicle miles traveled ( VMT) for all of 2015 reached 3. 15 trillion, a figure that breaks the previous record of 3 trillion miles in 2007, according to the Federal Highway Administration' s (FHWA) most recent Traffic Volume Trends report...
All five regions of the U. S. showed an increase in VMT for December, with the 13 -state West region having the highest unadjusted miles at 61. 6 billion, a 6. 9 -percent rise. The North Central region reached 58. 5 billion miles ( 3. 0 percent increase), followed by the South Atlantic region at 54. 9 billion miles ( 4. 4 percent increase), the South Gulf with 50. 5 billion ( 3. 0 percent increase) and the Northeast at 38. 7 billion mile ( 3. 0 percent increase). California had the highest increase at 11. 3 percent VMT, with Hawaii second ( 7. 2 percent) and Arkansas third ( 6. 2 percent). Washington, D. C., had the largest decrease in VMT, with a 4. 6 percent drop.'" [ emphasis added]
The total pool of choice riders, or persons who have the option of using a personal automobile, are estimated at approximately 22% of BREEZE riders, 31% of SPRINTER riders, and 78% of COASTER riders, according to the 2009 SANDAG On -Board Transit Passenger Survey for the San Diego Region. These are many of the same riders who are most influenced by external factors such as decreased fuel prices and reduced congestion. If longer- term congestion increases significantly as a result of additional vehicles on the road, it is foreseeable that some choice riders will shift back to the COASTER.
Key Conclusions The current trend toward declining ridership is largely driven by external factors in the regional and national economy. A comparable decline in ridership is occurring among other transit systems within the region and state, across the nation and throughout North America.
There may be a limited opportunity to capture new choice riders who are motivated by personal values, such as environmental consciousness or healthy lifestyle. However, this is typically a
Page 3 of 6 Planning Division Monthly Report NORTH COUNTY _ March, 2016 TRANSIT DISTRICT Ir relatively a nominal subset of total choice riders, and is likely too few potential riders to stabilize or counteract declining ridership trends.
NCTD' s system -wide ridership continued to decrease by 674.9% for the quarter ended December 31, 2015. NCTD will compare these results with regional, state, and national trends against the APTA Transit Ridership Reports for these periods when those reports become available.
Recommended Action Plan NCTD will continue to monitor regional, state and national trends and to coordinate with our partner agencies to help differentiate trends most strongly correlated with external, versus internal, factors. NCTD will also work with these partners to identify potential alternative approaches to best serve customers in the face of overall decreasing ridership.
NCTD will focus on continued monitoring of mode performance based on existing performance standards. Staff will provide updates to the Board regarding any significant declines in specific route and/ or mode performance and will make recommendations to modify service accordingly.
Ongoing emphasis will be placed on service levels, to the extent consistent with NCTD performance standards, and on service quality, in order to serve existing riders and to further incentivize choice riders.
NCTD engaged the services of a marketing firm, Brown Strategies, effective December 2015. Since then, NCTD has been working with Brown Strategies to develop and implement initiatives promoting NCTD' s services in various formats, including digital, radio, outdoor and print. Promotional campaigns will be targeted to specific audiences including students, commuters, and visitors/ tourists. This effort is being accomplished within NCTD' s existing marketing budget.
NCTD will pursue other efforts to attract new riders, but will limit costs associated with these efforts by focusing on grant funded programs and regional partnerships. One example is the Board approved program to subsidize student monthly passes for several local community colleges and the San Marcos Unified School District. This program will be funded through state cap and trade revenues.
NCTD will also continue to pursue transit - oriented development at various stations in order to increase ridership due to new housing and enhanced amenities around these stations.
Interagency Coordination
Planning Coordination with Municipalities, SANDAG and Rail Partners
Absolute Work Window ( AWW) Coordination Meeting- Three AWWs took place over three weekends in January 2016; January 9 -10th, 16 -17th, and 23 -24th. These AWWs supported work on the Los Penasquitos Lagoon Bridges and the Elvira to Morena Double Track projects. Use of consecutive weekends is necessary in order take advantage of construction mobilization and to maintain project budgets. The next AWWs will occur on March 5th - 6th and 19th - 20th 2016.
The monthly AWW coordination meeting was held on February 1, 2016. These meetings engage SANDAG and LOSSAN, our partner rail operators such as Amtrak, Metrolink, BNSF, Union Pacific, and the Navy and other agencies that have a need for or interest in AWWs in this corridor. Meetings have been well attended and have facilitated
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development of a coordinated AWW schedule and timely communication regarding any necessary schedule changes.
Over the next several years, the number and frequency of AWWs will increase in order to accommodate an approximately $ 300 million capital program along the LOSSAN Corridor led by SANDAL. These projects include state -of -good -repair activities such as bridge repair and replacements, as well as capacity - enhancing projects such as double tracking.
It is anticipated that consecutive AWWs will become more frequent as an extensive capital improvement program is implemented along the LOSSAN Corridor. NCTD is working closely with our partners to minimize impacts to customers. Initial feedback from partners at the AWW meetings is that the AWWs are generally going smoothly.
Specific projects and approximate project values are:
Oceanside Transit Center ( est. $ 16M)
Poinsettia Station Improvements ( est. $ 16M)
Batiquitos Lagoon Double Track & Bridge Replacement ( est. $ 55M)
San Elijo Lagoon Double Track & Bridge Replacement ( est. $ 55M)
CP Elvira to CP Morena Double Track ( est. $ 80M)
San Diego River Bridge Replacement ( est. $ 70M)
LOSSAN Rail Corridor Agency Board Meeting- The LOSSAN ( Los Angeles — San Diego — San Luis Obispo) Rail Corridor Agency Board of Directors meeting was held in Los Angeles on February 17, 2016. A key item was approval to begin taking steps to suspend the Rail 2 Rail Program if an agreement cannot be reached by February 29, 2016s, and to pursue continuance of the agreement with the agency if suspended.
SANDAG Standing Project Coordination Meetings- NCTD Planning representatives attended staff level meetings regarding capital projects along the LOSSAN rail corridor. These include meetings regarding the Oceanside Transit Center enhancements, Carlsbad Village Poinsettia Station Improvements, San Elijo Lagoon Double Track and Sorrento Valley Double Track projects.
NCTD Transit - Oriented Developments ( TOD)
Solana Beach Station Joint Development- Proposals for the Solana Beach Joint Development were received in late summer 2015. A short- list of proposals within the competitive range was published in the fall of 2015. The Source Selection Committee, consisting of NCTD staff and Solana Beach community members, is reviewing proposals. This is the second step of a four -step process, anticipated to conclude with a recommendation to the Board of Directors to enter into an Exclusive Negotiation Agreement ( ENA) for a ground lease. It is anticipated that a recommendation to enter into an ENA with a specific proposer will be brought forward to the Board of Directors in spring of 2016. Oceanside Transit Center Joint Development- A Notice of Opportunity was issued to the public on September 15, 2015 providing basic information regarding NCTD' s intent to issue an RFP for redevelopment of the Oceanside Transit Center. The draft RFP is anticipated to be released in early 2016.
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Escondido Transit Center Joint Development- NCTD and City staff will continue to coordinate with the anticipation of issuing an RFP for a TOD in Escondido within the next two to three years.
Carlsbad Village Transit Station- Redevelopment of the Carlsbad Village Transit Station is envisioned over the long- term. Currently, the City and SANDAG are exploring opportunities to trench the railroad track in this vicinity. Redevelopment of the site will be considered once a determination regarding trenching has been made. In the interim, NCTD staff continue to coordinate with City staff to monitor the City' s updates to the planning and design framework for Carlsbad Village.
Isidore, Chris. January 5 2016. U. S. Car Sales Set Record. CNN Money http:// lnoney. cnn. com/2016/ 01/ 05/ news/ coinpanies/ car- sales/ index.html
Hill, Chris. February 23, 2016. U. S. Miles Driven in 2015 Reaches 3. 15 Trillion, Breaking Previous 2007 Record. Equipment World' s Better Roads. http:// www. equipmentworld. coin/ u- s- miles- driven- in- 2015- reaches- 3- 15- trillion- breaking-previous- 2007- record/
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North County Transit District 810 Mission Avenue, Oceanside, CA 92054 ( 760) 967- 2828 • www. GoNCTD. com Record Ridership in FY2015 ( all modes)
SPRINTER achieved record ridership in 2015
9, 144/ avg. weekday)
LIFT ridership increasing 10%- 20% per year since FY2011 * (* FY2014 is an exception 6.3% increase)
R2R success in increasing corridor ridership, and creating flexibility for COASTER customers Downward trend in ridership, particularly bus and Coaster ( system -wide - 3. 6%)
Mode % Change Actual #
SPRINTER 0. 8% 59255
COASTER 4.2% 209652
BREEZE - 4. 8% - 989118
FLEX - 2. 0% + 125
LIFT + 14. 9% 69499 Mode Nation State Southern NCTD California
LIGHT RAIL - 0. 4% - 2. 2% --- - 0. 8%
COMMUTER 0. 4% 2. 0% 3. 2% - 4.2% RAIL
BUS - 3. 3% - 2. 7%* - 4. 7% - 4. 8%
Bus systems carrying over a million passengers. Fare Rates - no changes, fares were lowered in January 2011 and have not been increased since July 2009
Service Levels - no significant changes
On -Time Performance - no significant changes in performance
COASTER Closures due to Absolute Work Windows- NCTD is increasing number of rail closures to support capital improvements* Economy Improved - Likely has had a positive impact on ridership Unemployment Decreased- Likely has had a positive impact on ridership Automobile Sales Increased - Likely has had a potentially negative impact on ridership Assembly Bill 60 - Likely has had a potentially negative impact on ridership
Competition from Uber, Lyft, and other emerging innovations - Likely has had a potentially negative impact on ridership Implemented January 2, 2015 January 59, 000 Allow driver' s licenses February 72, 000 to be issued to an March 76, 000 applicant who is able to April 74, 000 submit satisfactory May 60, 000 proof of identity and June 56, 000 California residency. July 45, 000 August 37, 000 Average of 50, 000 new September 34, 000 drivers licenses issued October 35, 000 per month November 26, 000
December 31, 000 61901 re Ire 10to All Ui
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NEW AUTO SALES CALIFORNIA AND UNITED STATES
CALIFORNIA al UNITED STATES bl New Fee -Paid New Car & Light Truck Sales Auto Registrations Millions at annual rate
Number % change Total change Domestic % change Imports change
2000 1, 776, 939 9. 0 17, 344 2. 8 14, 484 0. 6 2, 860 15. 4
2001 1, 752, 269 ( 1. 4) 17, 118 1. 3) 14, 041 ( 3. 1) 3, 077 7. 6
2002 1, 737, 487 ( 0. 8) 16, 810 1. 8) 13, 518 ( 3. 7) 3, 292 7. 0
2003 1, 691, 619 ( 2. 6) 16, 640 1. 0) 13, 329 ( 1. 4) 3, 311 0. 6
2004 1, 797, 860 6. 3 16, 865 1. 4 13, 465 1. 0 3, 401 2. 7
2005 1, 836, 129 2. 1 16, 948 0. 5 13, 546 0. 6 3, 402 0. 0
2006 1, 793, 928 ( 2. 3) 16, 504 2. 6) 12, 813 ( 5. 4) 3, 691 8. 5
2007 1, 676, 522 ( 6. 5) 16, 089 2. 5) 12, 336 ( 3. 7) 3, 753 1. 7
2008 1, 340, 685 ( 20. 0) 13, 195 18. 0) 9, 820 ( 20. 4) 3, 375 10. 1)
2009 988, 359 ( 26. 3) 10, 402 21. 2) 7, 680 ( 21. 8) 2, 721 19. 4)
2010 1, 107, 428 12. 0 11, 555 11. 1 8, 812 14. 7 2, 743 0. 8
2011 1, 209, 804 9. 2 12, 735 10. 2 9, 805 11. 3 2, 929 6. 8
2012 1, 516, 518 25. 4 14, 443 13. 4 11, 257 14. 8 3, 186 8. 8
2013 1, 674, 007 10. 4 15, 532 7. 5 12, 140 7. 8 3, 392 6. 5
2014 1, 798, 600 7. 4 16, 435 5. 8 12, 977 6. 9 3, 458 2. 0
2015 1. 983. 558 10. 3 17. 386 5. 8 13. 663 5. 3 3. 724 7. 7
PassengerPassenger cars,cars, sportsport utilityutility vehicles,vehicles, andand minivans.minivans. PassengerPassenger cars,cars, sportsport utilityutility vehicles,vehicles, minivans,minivans, andand pickuppickup trucks.trucks.
CACA DepartmentDepartment ofof MotorMotor VehiclesVehicles rtes rtes-- -- USUS DepartmentDepartment ofof CommerceCommerce Continued Monitoring Coordination with Regional Partners Marketing & Outreach Grants to Attract New Riders
Explore Partnerships with Alternative Transportation Providers ( Uber, Lyft)
Increased Convenience and Technological Advancements ( i. e., regional fare streamlining, apps) Continuous Improvement & Adaptation Questions ?
WE MOVE PEOPLE OP ST` R BREEZE SPRINTER
North County Transit District 810 Mission Avenue, Oceanside, CA 92054 ( 760) 967- 2828 • www. GoNCTD. com