Agenda NORTH COUNTY Item# TRANSIT DISTRICT 12 STAFF REPORT RECEIVE MONTHLY PLANNING DIVISION REPORT Time Sensitive 0 Consent 0 STAFF Receive Monthly Planning Division Report for the period of February 2016. RECOMMENDATION: BACKGROUND The role of the Planning Division is to plan, design, schedule and monitor INFORMATION: NCTD' s transit service. Planning is also responsible for coordination with SANDAG and local governments to promote transit service, determine locations for bus stops, design transit oriented development ( TOD), and facilitate capital project planning and permitting. The Planning Division primarily supports the Operations and Development Services Divisions. ATTACHMENT: 12A- Monthly Planning Report for the period of February 2016 FISCAL IMPACT: This staff report has no fiscal impact. COMMITTEE REVIEW: None STAFF CONTACT: Dahvia Lynch, Chief Planning Officer E-mail: dlynch@nctd. org Phone: 760- 966- 6654 Approved and/or authorized by the Board of Dire tors of the North County Transit District Agenda Item No.: __,_/.,.,.1=--- Date: 5--~ /-~/ k:, March 17, 2016 Board Meeting Staff Report No.: SR- 16-03-012 REVISED ATTACHMENT 12A NORTH COUNTY TRANSIT DISTRICT - Planning Division Monthly Report For the Period of February 2016 Planning Division Monthly Report NORTH COUNTY March, 2016 TRANSIT DISTRICT Planning Division Summary The role of the Planning Division is to plan, design, schedule and monitor NCTD' s transit service. Planning is also responsible for coordination with SANDAG and other local governments to promote transit service, determine locations for bus stops, design transit oriented development TOD), and facilitate capital project planning and permitting. The Planning Division supports the Operations and Development Services Divisions. Service Planning- Quarterly Ridership Update Transit Ridership Transit ridership is positively and negatively impacted by a number of internal and external factors. Internal factors include but are not limited to fare rates, service levels, and service quality. External factors include but are not limited to economic, employment, fuel pricing, and congestion. Since May 2015 NCTD has seen a negative trend in ridership. NCTD' s ridership trends are consistent with national trends as evidenced by the APTA Transit Ridership Report, Third Quarter 2015 ( see Appendix A) covering July 2015 to September 2015. This trend was not expected, as NCTD' s ridership has reached record high levels in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2015. NCTD staff has been analyzing the ridership trends and is providing the Board with enhanced information to assist in the understanding of the trends. Internal Factor Analysis NCTD has examined internal factors that could be influencing ridership. None of the internal factors most commonly affecting ridership, or other known factors, changed prior to or after the trend began in May 2015. Fare rates and service levels did not change ( aside from standard elimination of " School Tripper" bus routes in June), and NCTD has not seen an increase in customer complaints, or a decline in on time performance, that would suggest a decline in service quality. However, NCTD did conduct a series of Absolute Work Windows ( AWWs), or weekend rail closures, resulting in a loss of all COASTER ridership over two weekends in May 2015. These closures are necessary to support improvements to rail infrastructure and capacity enhancing projects ( i. e., double -track) and are likely to increase in frequency over the next several years with the focus on completing double -track segments on this corridor. This internal factor has and will continue to exacerbate ridership decreases during specific periods such as October 2015, but is mode - specific and is not substantial enough to lead to an overall trend. External Factor Analysis NCTD' s system -wide ridership was down bye -.-73. 6% during the quarter ended September 30, 2015 primarily due to a 6: 74.8% decrease in BREEZE ridership and 64.2% decrease in COASTER ridership during the same period. The trend of decreasing ridership is reflected in national transit ridership statistics, as well as regional and statewide data. The APTA Transit Ridership Report, Third Quarter 2015 covering July 2015 to September 2015, reports that ridership in the United States was down 1. 69% in the third quarter, and that ridership across North America ( including Canada) was down 1. 91 % during that period ( 1. 69% U. S., 2. 13% Canada). By mode, commuter rail ridership is up by 0. 4% nationally, up by 2% among the statewide commuter rail operators, but down by 3. 2% for the southern California systems, COASTER and Metrolink ( COASTER ridership was down by 644.2%). Light rail ridership declined nationally and Page 2 of 6 Planning Division Monthly Report NORTH COUNTY _ March, 2016 TRANSIT DISTRICT Ir at the state level by 0. 4% and 2. 2%, respectively with SPRINTER declining by 3, 60. 8%. In contrast, data for the other system in the region, operated by MTS, show a 4. 4% increase in trolley ridership. Bus ridership appears to have been hit the hardest during the quarter ended September 30, 2015 with national ridership declining by 3. 3%. Among the state systems carrying over a million passengers this quarter, bus ridership fell by 2. 7%. In southern California, the decline in ridership was higher than the national figure, dropping by 4. 7%, with MTS and NCTD experiencing a 6. 6% and 6-.74. 8% decline during this timeframe, respectively. Los Angeles ( LA Metro) and Orange County ( OCTA) also experienced significant drops in bus ridership, with LA Metro falling by 4. 2% and OCTA falling by 6. 2%. This broad trend is assumed to be reflective of economic indicators, such as reduced unemployment and lowered fuel prices, and increases in automobile sales and vehicle miles traveled. A CNN report from January, 2016' indicated: Automobile sales hit a record high in 2015. Here's why. Low gas prices, easy credit, strong job growth, and pent- up demand from years of depressed sales... In 2015, a major factor in the sales rebound was strong hiring by employers, who added some 2.3 million jobs... The growth in auto sales is expected to continue in 2016; most forecasts put sales this year above 18 million." Vehicle miles traveled also reached a record high, breaking the previous record which occurred in 2007, just prior to the great recession. An article compiling Federal Highway Administration data across the nation stated: Vehicle miles traveled ( VMT) for all of 2015 reached 3. 15 trillion, a figure that breaks the previous record of 3 trillion miles in 2007, according to the Federal Highway Administration' s (FHWA) most recent Traffic Volume Trends report... All five regions of the U. S. showed an increase in VMT for December, with the 13 -state West region having the highest unadjusted miles at 61. 6 billion, a 6. 9 -percent rise. The North Central region reached 58. 5 billion miles ( 3. 0 percent increase), followed by the South Atlantic region at 54. 9 billion miles ( 4. 4 percent increase), the South Gulf with 50. 5 billion ( 3. 0 percent increase) and the Northeast at 38. 7 billion mile ( 3. 0 percent increase). California had the highest increase at 11. 3 percent VMT, with Hawaii second ( 7. 2 percent) and Arkansas third ( 6. 2 percent). Washington, D. C., had the largest decrease in VMT, with a 4. 6 percent drop.'" [ emphasis added] The total pool of choice riders, or persons who have the option of using a personal automobile, are estimated at approximately 22% of BREEZE riders, 31% of SPRINTER riders, and 78% of COASTER riders, according to the 2009 SANDAG On -Board Transit Passenger Survey for the San Diego Region. These are many of the same riders who are most influenced by external factors such as decreased fuel prices and reduced congestion. If longer- term congestion increases significantly as a result of additional vehicles on the road, it is foreseeable that some choice riders will shift back to the COASTER. Key Conclusions The current trend toward declining ridership is largely driven by external factors in the regional and national economy. A comparable decline in ridership is occurring among other transit systems within the region and state, across the nation and throughout North America. There may be a limited opportunity to capture new choice riders who are motivated by personal values, such as environmental consciousness or healthy lifestyle. However, this is typically a Page 3 of 6 Planning Division Monthly Report NORTH COUNTY _ March, 2016 TRANSIT DISTRICT Ir relatively a nominal subset of total choice riders, and is likely too few potential riders to stabilize or counteract declining ridership trends. NCTD' s system -wide ridership continued to decrease by 674.9% for the quarter ended December 31, 2015. NCTD will compare these results with regional, state, and national trends against the APTA Transit Ridership Reports for these periods when those reports become available. Recommended Action Plan NCTD will continue to monitor regional, state and national trends and to coordinate with our partner agencies to help differentiate trends most strongly correlated with external, versus internal, factors. NCTD will also work with these partners to identify potential alternative approaches to best serve customers in the face of overall decreasing ridership. NCTD will focus on continued monitoring of mode performance based on existing performance standards. Staff will provide updates to the Board regarding any significant declines in specific route and/ or mode performance and will make recommendations to modify service accordingly. Ongoing emphasis will be placed on service levels, to the extent consistent with NCTD performance standards, and on service quality, in order to serve existing riders and to further incentivize choice riders. NCTD engaged the services of a marketing firm, Brown Strategies, effective December 2015. Since then, NCTD has been working with Brown Strategies to develop and implement initiatives promoting NCTD' s services in various formats, including digital, radio, outdoor and print.