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Cameroon: Fragile State?

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Cameroon: Fragile State? CAMEROON: FRAGILE STATE? Africa Report N°160 – 25 May 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. FROM MANDATE TO MODERN CAMEROON – CONTINUITIES OF POWER AND RESISTANCE ..................................................... 1 A. FROM GERMANY TO FRANCE AND BRITAIN TO INDEPENDENCE .................................................... 1 1. 1884-1945: the beginnings of modern Cameroon ........................................................................ 2 2. 1945-1955: the emergence of Cameroonian politics ................................................................... 3 3. 1955-1961: the turbulent path to independence ........................................................................... 5 B. INDEPENDENT CAMEROON 1961-1982: THE IMPERATIVES OF UNITY AND STABILITY .................. 7 1. The UPC’s annihilation and the establishment of a one-party state ............................................ 7 2. Centralisation of the state and all its powers ................................................................................ 8 3. Co-option, corruption and repression as a system of governance ................................................ 9 III. PAUL BIYA IN POWER: THE CHALLENGES OF PLURALISM ........................ 10 A. 1982-1990: FALSE START .......................................................................................................... 10 1. 1982-1984: a model transition turns sour .................................................................................. 10 2. 1985-1989: the failure of single-party democracy ..................................................................... 11 B. DEMOCRATISATION AND MULTI-PARTY POLITICS ........................................................................ 12 1. 1990-1992: the explosive emergence of democracy movements............................................... 12 2. 1992-1997: constitutional debate and partial decentralisation ................................................... 13 3. 1997-2004: authoritarian restoration .......................................................................................... 14 IV. HOW IS CAMEROON GOVERNED? ......................................................................... 16 A. POLITICS .................................................................................................................................... 16 1. The regime ................................................................................................................................. 16 2. Opposition .................................................................................................................................. 18 B. PERIPHERIES AND NEIGHBOURS ................................................................................................. 19 1. The north .................................................................................................................................... 20 2. The Anglophone minority .......................................................................................................... 21 3. Relations with neighbours: diplomatic successes but remaining risks ...................................... 23 V. IS CAMEROON FRAGILE? ......................................................................................... 24 A. RESILIENCE ................................................................................................................................ 25 B. WEAKNESSES ............................................................................................................................. 25 1. Conflict factors ........................................................................................................................... 25 2. Scenarios .................................................................................................................................... 27 VI. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 28 APPENDICES A. MAP OF CAMEROON ........................................................................................................................ 29 B. MAP OF CAMEROON 1919-1961 ....................................................................................................... 30 C. HISTORY OF CAMEROON – TIMELINE................................................................................................ 31 D. ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................................................... 34 E. ELECTORAL RESULTS 1992-2007 ..................................................................................................... 35 F. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 36 G. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON AFRICA SINCE 2007 ..................................................... 37 H. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 39 Africa Report N°160 25 May 2010 CAMEROON: FRAGILE STATE? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Cameroon’s apparent stability in a turbulent region can- In the early 1990s, opposition parties emerged, and multi- not be taken for granted. The co-option of elites through party elections were held. For two and a half years, the the distribution of state largesse, and the emigration of regime was seriously threatened at the ballot box and in many educated young people provide a certain safety the street, and frustrations led to widespread violence in valve for tensions, but the failure of reform and continued 1991. But having pulled through, President Biya and his poor governance mean people no longer believe in the ruling party started to push back on reforms and restore rule of law or peaceful political change. Multiple risks of authoritarian rule behind a façade of democratic practice. conflict exist in the build-up to presidential elections in 2011 and beyond. This background report, Crisis Group’s Today, the nation-building project has become frayed, as first on Cameroon, analyses the historical roots of the cur- the economy has stagnated, and unemployment and ine- rent impasse. quality have risen. The economy is weighed down by cor- ruption and inertia, and the population sees very little from Cameroon’s history shows a pattern of apparent stability what economic growth there has been, mainly through followed by violent crisis. For long periods (early 1950s, exploitation of natural resources. While potential organis- 1970s), problems have been masked but not dealt with. In ing forces are weak and dissipated, popular anger is high. the late 1950s, widespread unrest occurred as the main party opposed to French rule was banned, leading to a The regime retains its old conservative reflexes, but the bloody and protracted guerrilla war. Independence came experiences and expectations of a youthful population in 1960, but in the context of extensive violence. In 1961, have moved on. The political opposition is weakened by though the southern region of British-controlled Anglo- internal fractures and an erosion of democratic space, phone Cameroon voted to re-join Francophone Camer- leaving few channels to express legitimate discontent. oon, the north voted to remain with Nigeria. The explosion of anger in February 2008, stimulated by Biya’s decision to alter the constitution to seek a further The late 1960s and the 1970s was a period of relative term in office, showed the dangers of this situation. peace. The regime was obsessed with unity and stability following the traumas of the 1950s, but, having fought Cameroon has many features of other countries which against the only genuine liberation movement, lacked his- have fallen into conflict, including highly centralised and torical legitimacy. It was autocratic, and pluralism and personalised leadership, political manipulation of ethnic diversity were considered unacceptable threats to the tensions and very widespread corruption. Even if it over- nation-building project. Nevertheless, the economy grew, comes its near-term challenges, the possibility of longer- and some genuine development took place. term deterioration leading to more open conflict cannot be excluded. In Côte d’Ivoire a protracted struggle for The resignation of President Ahidjo in November 1982 succession of a long-serving president laid the ground for and the hand-over of power to his prime minister, Paul a civil war. With President Biya now 77, and in the ab- Biya, initially passed off smoothly. But tensions soon sence of any clear signals over his intentions, the question emerged, culminating in a coup attempt in April 1984, of presidential succession also looms large. blamed on Ahidjo loyalists. It was violently put down, no process of reconciliation followed, and the trauma of this Events in Guinea in December 2008, when weak rule of period is still a source of bitterness for many from the law and manipulation of the constitution were seized on by north, Ahidjo’s home area. Equally, some from the south, junior officers with disastrous consequences, should be including in the security forces, fear communal reprisals sobering for anyone concerned about Cameroon. Respect stemming
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