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Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2013

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Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2013 Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2013 Report EPA-420-R-13-011 December 2013 NOTICE: This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Fleetwide Trends Overview...................................................................................................................... 3 A. Overview of Final MY 2012 Data ................................................................................................................3 B. Overview of Preliminary MY 2013 Data ......................................................................................................3 C. Overview of Long-Term Trends ..................................................................................................................5 3. Vehicle Class, Type, and Attributes......................................................................................................... 12 A. Vehicle Class ............................................................................................................................................12 B. Vehicle Type ............................................................................................................................................13 C. Vehicle Attributes ....................................................................................................................................20 4. Manufacturers and Makes ..................................................................................................................... 30 A. Manufacturer and Make Definitions ........................................................................................................30 B. Manufacturer and Make Trends...............................................................................................................32 5. Powertrain Technologies ....................................................................................................................... 43 A. Trends in Engine Power and Size (cylinders and displacement).................................................................43 B. Trends in Fuel Delivery Methods and Valvetrains .....................................................................................47 C. New Powertrain Strategies: Turbo Downsizing, Hybrids, and Diesels........................................................50 D. Trends in Transmission Types...................................................................................................................64 E. Trends in Drive Types ...............................................................................................................................68 6. Techology Adoption Rates ..................................................................................................................... 74 A. Industry-Wide Technology Adoption Since 1975 ......................................................................................74 B. Technology Adoption By Manufacturers ..................................................................................................76 C. Technology Adoption In the Last 5 Years ..................................................................................................81 7. Alternative Fuel Vehicles........................................................................................................................ 83 A. Methodology ...........................................................................................................................................83 B. Historical Trends ......................................................................................................................................84 C. MY 2013 Vehicles.....................................................................................................................................87 8. High Fuel Economy and Low CO2 Choices................................................................................................ 96 A. Methodology ...........................................................................................................................................96 B. High Fuel Economy Vehicle Offerings .......................................................................................................98 C. High Fuel Economy Ranges within Models................................................................................................99 D. Advanced Technology Vehicle Offerings.................................................................................................100 9. Regulatory Context...............................................................................................................................101 A. Personal Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards ............................................101 B. Current Vehicles That Meet Future EPA CO2 Emissions Compliance Targets ...........................................102 C. Comparison of EPA and NHTSA Fuel Economy Data, 1975-2013 .............................................................104 D. Comparison of MY 2012 Unadjusted, Laboratory and Estimated CAFE Data by Manufacturer ................106 10. Additional Database and Report Details ..............................................................................................108 A. Sources of Input Data.............................................................................................................................108 B. Harmonic Averaging of Fuel Economy Values .........................................................................................109 C. Adjusted vs. Unadjusted, Laboratory Values...........................................................................................111 D. Other Database Methodology Issues......................................................................................................118 E. Comparison of Preliminary and Final Fleetwide Fuel Economy Values ....................................................121 F. Definitions and Acronyms.......................................................................................................................123 G. Links for More Information....................................................................................................................125 H. Authors and Acknowledgements ...........................................................................................................126 11. References..........................................................................................................................................127 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Adjusted CO2 Emissions for MY 1975-MY 2013 .................................................................................... 5 Figure 2.2 Adjusted Fuel Economy for MY 1975-MY 2013 .................................................................................... 6 Figure 2.3 Adjusted Fuel Economy, Weight, and Horsepower for MY 1975-2013.................................................. 7 Figure 2.4 Production-Weighted Adjusted Fuel Economy Distribution for MY 1975-MY 2013 ............................... 9 Figure 3.1 Car and Truck Production Share for MY 1975-2013............................................................................ 13 Figure 3.2 Adjusted Fuel Economy vs. Interior Volume for High Volume Manufacturers MY 1978 and MY 2013 Car Type Only................................................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 3.3 Vehicle Type Production Share by Model Year ................................................................................... 17 Figure 3.4 Adjusted CO2 Emissions, Adjusted Fuel Economy and Other Key Parameters by Vehicle Type MY 1975-2013............................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 3.5 Car and Truck Production Share by Vehicle Inertia Weight Class........................................................ 25 Figure 3.6 Unadjusted, Laboratory Fuel Consumption vs. Footprint Cars and Trucks, MY 2012........................... 26 Figure 3.7 Unadjusted, Laboratory Fuel Consumption vs. Inertia Weight Cars and Trucks, MY 1975 and 2012 ... 27 Figure 3.8 Unadjusted, Laboratory Fuel Consumption vs. 0-60 Acceleration Time Cars and Trucks MY 1975....... 28 Figure 3.9 Unadjusted, Laboratory Fuel Consumption vs. Car Interior Volume Cars, MY 1978 and 2012 ............. 29 Figure 4.1 Adjusted Fuel Economy and Percent Truck by Manufacturer for MY 1975-2013................................. 42 Figure 5.1 Engine Displacement and Power ....................................................................................................... 44 Figure 5.2 Percent Change for Specific Engine Metrics ....................................................................................... 45 Figure 5.3 Production Share by Number of Cylinders.........................................................................................
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