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Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions And Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2014 Report EPA-420-R -14-023a October 2014 NOTICE: This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Fleetwide Trends Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 3 A. Overview of Final MY 2013 Data ...................................................................................................................................... 3 B. Overview of Preliminary MY 2014 Data ........................................................................................................................... 3 C. Overview of Long-Term Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 6 3. Vehicle Class, Type, and Attributes .............................................................................................................................. 14 A. Vehicle Class ................................................................................................................................................................... 14 B. Vehicle Type.................................................................................................................................................................... 16 C. Vehicle Footprint, Weight, and Horsepower .................................................................................................................. 22 D. Vehicle Acceleration ....................................................................................................................................................... 32 4. Manufacturers and Makes .......................................................................................................................................... 37 A. Manufacturer and Make Definitions .............................................................................................................................. 37 B. Manufacturer and Make Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions ........................................................................................... 39 C. Manufacturer Technology and Attribute Trends ............................................................................................................ 47 5. Powertrain Technologies ............................................................................................................................................. 52 A. Trends in Engine Power and Size (Cylinders and Displacement) .................................................................................... 52 B. Trends in Fuel Delivery Methods and Valvetrains .......................................................................................................... 56 C. New Powertrain Strategies: Turbo Downsizing, Hybrids, and Diesels ............................................................................ 59 D. Trends in Transmission Types......................................................................................................................................... 73 E. Trends in Drive Types ...................................................................................................................................................... 77 6. Techology Adoption Rates ........................................................................................................................................... 83 A. Industry-Wide Technology Adoption Since 1975 ........................................................................................................... 84 B. Technology Adoption by Manufacturers ........................................................................................................................ 85 C. Technology Adoption in the Last Five Years ................................................................................................................... 91 7. Alternative Fuel Vehicles ............................................................................................................................................. 92 A. Methodology .................................................................................................................................................................. 92 B. Historical Trends ............................................................................................................................................................. 94 C. MY 2014 Vehicles............................................................................................................................................................ 96 D. Overall Impact of Alternative Fuel Vehicles ................................................................................................................. 106 8. High Fuel Economy/Low CO2 and Advanced Technology Choices .............................................................................. 108 A. Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................ 108 B. High Fuel Economy Vehicle Offerings ........................................................................................................................... 110 C. Advanced Technology Vehicle Offerings ...................................................................................................................... 111 9. Regulatory Context .................................................................................................................................................... 112 A. Personal Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards ................................................................ 112 B. Current Vehicles That Meet Future EPA CO2 Emissions Compliance Targets ............................................................... 113 C. Comparison of EPA and NHTSA Fuel Economy Data, 1975-2014 ................................................................................. 115 D. Comparison of MY 2013 Unadjusted, Laboratory and Estimated CAFE Data by Manufacturer .................................. 117 10. Additional Database and Report Details .................................................................................................................. 119 A. Sources of Input Data ................................................................................................................................................... 119 B. Harmonic Averaging of Fuel Economy Values .............................................................................................................. 120 C. Adjusted vs. Unadjusted, Laboratory Fuel Economy Values ........................................................................................ 121 D. Vehicle Tailpipe CO2 Emissions Data ............................................................................................................................ 129 E. Vehicle-Related GHG Emissions Sources Other Than Tailpipe CO2 Emissions .............................................................. 131 F. Other Database Methodology Issues ............................................................................................................................ 133 G. Comparison of Preliminary and Final Fleetwide Fuel Economy Values ....................................................................... 134 H. Definitions and Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................ 136 I. Links for More Information ............................................................................................................................................ 138 J. Authors and Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. 139 References .................................................................................................................................................................... 140 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Adjusted CO2 Emissions by Model Year ...................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 2.2 Adjusted Fuel Economy by Model Year ...................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 2.3 Adjusted Fuel Economy, Weight, and Horsepower by Model Year ............................................................................ 8 Figure 2.4 Adjusted Fuel Economy Distribution by Model Year ................................................................................................ 10 Figure 3.1 Car and Truck Production Share by Model Year ...................................................................................................... 15 Figure 3.2
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