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Battlefield of the Future BATTLEFIELD OF THE FUTURE 21st Century Warfare Issues Barry R. Schneider Lawrence E. Grinter Revised Edition September 1998 The Air War College Studies in National Security was established as a forum for research on topics that influence the national security of the United States . Copies of No . 3 in this series are available from the Air War College, 325 Chennault Circle, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama 36112-6427 . The fax number is (334) 953-7934 ; the telephone number is (334) 953-2103/DSN 493-2103/7074. Air War College Studies in National Security No. 3 Air University Press Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama 36112-6428 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Battlefield ofthe future : 21 st century warfare issues / [edited] by Barry R. Schneider and Lawrence E. Grinter-Rev. ed. p. cm. - (Air War College studies in national security : no. 3) I . Military art and science-Forecasting . 2. Twenty-first century . I. Schneider, Barry R. II. Grinter, Lawrence E. III. Series . U104.1338 1998 355.02'01'12-dc21 98-38913 CIP ISBN 1-58566-061-2 First Printing September 1995 Second Printing (Revised Edition) September 1998 Third Printing July 2001 Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not the offical policies or positions of the United States Department of Defense or the United States Government. For Sale by the Superintendent of Documents US Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 To Keegie (eSchneider) who so fully supported one of the editors in the preparation of Llm book, and to Gertrude E . and George H. (Schneider and ConsLance L . and Linton E. Grlnter who lovingly and unselfishly gave us a twentieth-century vantage point to peer into the twenty-first century THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Battlefield of the Future 21st Century Warfare Issues Contents Chapter Page DISCLAIMER . ff ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . ufi Introduction . 1 1 Principles of War for the Battlefield of the Future . 5 Barry R. Schneider Overview: New Era Warfare? A Revolution in Military Affairs? . 43 2 New-Era Warfare . 47 Gen Charles A. Homer, USAF, (Ret.) 3 The Revolution in Military Affairs . 65 Jeffrey McKitrick, James Blackwell, Fred Littlepage, George Kraus, Richard Blanchfield and Dale Hill Overview: Future Airpower and Strategy Issues . 99 4 Air Theory for the Twenty-First Century . 103 Col John A. Warden III, USAF Parallel War and Hyperwan Is Every Want aWeakness? . 125 Col Richard Szafranski, USAF Overview: Information Warfare Issues . 149 6 Information War - Cyberwar - Netwar . 153 George Stein 7 Information Warfare: Impacts and Concerns . 171 Col James W. McLendon, USAF Overview: Biological Warfare Issues. 201 8 The Biological Weapon: A Poor Nation's Weapon of Mass Destruction . 205 Lt Col Terry N. Mayer, USAF 9 Twenty-First Century Germ Warfare . 227 Lt Col Robert P. Kadlec, MD, USAF 10 Biological Weapons for Waging Economic Warfare . 251 Lt Col Robert P. Kadlec, MD, USAF 11 On Twenty-First Century Warfare . 267 Lawrence E. Grinter and Dr. Barry R. Schneider About the Contributors . 275 IIlustrations Figures 1 Elements of the Present RMA. 95 2 System Model . 108 3 China and Iraq-Comparative Sizes . 138 Tables 1 System Attributes . 107 2 US Offensive Biological Weapons Agents Produced Between 1954-1969 . 233 3 Estimated Cumulative Losses to the US from Selected NonIndigenous Species, 1906-1991 . 257 Acknowledgments We, the editors, wish to thank the authors for their timely responses to our requests for quality work and for meeting deadlines. At the Air War College, we wish to thank Dean Ronald Kurth and Col Theodore Hailes, associate dean for their championing of the Air War College Studies in National Security series. Thanks also are due to Col Robert Hinds, our department chairman, who gave us his support and encouragement when we began work on this project. We also appreciate Maj Gen Peter D. Robinson, Dr Alexander S . Cochran, Dr Robert Wendzel, Dr David Sorenson, Dr Dan Hughes, Dr Bill Martel, Col Joseph Englebrecht, and D r George Stein, all Air War College faculty, who have taken their time to review chapters written by others . Outside reviewers who also contributed valuable suggestions include: Mr David Kay (SAIC), Col John Ellen, USAF, retired (SAIC), Col Phillip Gardiner, USAF, retired (SAIC), Dr Robert Joseph, director of the NDU Counterproliferation Center; and Phillip E . Lacombe, managing director of the Aerospace Education Foundation . Help was also provided by the Institute for National Security Studies, USAFA, that supported part of Dr Schneider's research on this project. We are also grateful to MSgt Milton Turner for running interference on the budgetary paperwork, and to Modeyither Jones and Linda Jenkins for their administrative assistance that helped us turn this book out in a timely fashion. At the Air University Press, we wish to thank Dr Elizabeth Bradley, director; Tom Mackin; Thomas Lobenstein; Rebecca McLeod ; Steven Garst; and other AU Press editors that gave us valuable suggestions for improving the manuscript in a timely fashion. Barry R. Schneider & Lawrence E . Grinter THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Introduction This is a book about strategy and war fighting in the midst of a revolution in military affairs as the world moves into the twenty-first century. Its 11 essays examine topics such as military operations against a well-armed rogue state or NASTI (NBC-arming sponsor of terrorism and intervention) state; the potential of parallel warfare strategy for different kinds of states ; the revolutionary potential of information warfare; the lethal possibilities of biological warfare; and the elements of an ongoing revolution in military affairs (RMA) . The book's purpose is to focus attention on the operational problems, enemy strategies, and threats that will confront US national security decision makers in the twenty-first century. The participating authors are either professional military officers or civilian professionals who specialize in national security issues. Two of the architects of the US air campaign in the 1991 Gulf War have contributed essays that discuss the evolving utility of airpower to achieve decisive results and the lessons that might portend for the future of warfare . In "Principles of War on the Battlefield of the Future," which sets the tone for the book, Dr. Barry Schneider examines how traditional principles of war may have to be reassessed in light of a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) among third world states. Regarding the principle of "mass," traditional theory dictated that forces be massed for an offensive breakthrough . But Schneider argues that, against an enemy armed with WMD, dispersal of one's forces may, in fact, be more prudent, and fighting by means of "disengaged combat" prior to a decisive strike may be necessary. This requires high coordination and "superior targeting and damage assessment intelligence, combined with superior high-tech weapons." Still, the United States and its allies would not likely be able to dominate a future battlefield even with advanced conventional arms if they did not have close-in air bases to operate from and thereby to achieve air dominance over the battle space . Therefore, while it sounds good, striking from outside the enemy's range is not a real option for long if the enemy is mounting a ground campaign that is closing in on vital areas. Local air, sea, and ground power will be needed to contain the adversary forces and roll them back. This means local air bases and seaports must be available and protected . Yet, the US and allied armed forces, in confronting a Saddam Hussein with nuclear, biological, or chemical (NBC) warfare capabilities might be well advised to forego massing forces (which present lucrative targets to the enemy's WMD) in favor of maneuver, dispersion, speed, mobility, range, and deception. How to protect fixed installations such as ports and airfields is a dilemma. Furthermore, Schneider tells us, the principle of maintaining the "offensive" may have to be supplemented "with a combination of potent defenses to avoid lethal enemy "DI counterstrikes ." In twenty-first-century warfare, theater missile defenses (TMD) are likely to be essential, especially against future rogue regimes possessing nuclear, biological, or chemical warheads and ballistic missile delivery systems. These could pose a threat against US and allied forces, ports, airfields, naval convoys, and cities within range that only effective multilayered TMD may be able to handle . When facing a WMD-armed adversary, it will be even more important than in the past to preserve "unity of command" via effective command, control, and communications during a conflict. Moreover, it is highly likely that, in an era of "infor- mation warfare," both sides will attempt and may be able to disrupt and destroy each other's command and control systems. Regarding the principle of clear, obtainable "objectives," Schneider argues that war with a nuclear-armed terrorist state "must either be a short victorious war that starts with the neutralization or destruction of the enemy's WMD, or one fought for limited objectives and prosecuted with deep respect for the power of the adversary's mass destruction capabilities ." This would require a revolution in the way US regional "war-fighting" commanders in chief prepare for major regional conflicts (MRC) . It might be difficult for US decision makers to "sell" such a strategy to an American public, given our penchant for quick, decisive victories. Finally, "security" as a principle of war demands exceptionally good intelligence . In the future, it will be especially important to identify those states acquiring WMD and missile capabilities and to gauge their locations and numbers from the outset of a conflict. This will be difficult because rogue proliferator states greatly complicate accurate intelligence on their paths to acquiring WMD by pursuing multiple clandestine paths to such capabilities .
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