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Digital and Physical Integration: Luxury Retail's Holy Grail

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Digital and Physical Integration: Luxury Retail's Holy Grail LUXURY GOODS Digital and Physical Integration: Luxury Retail's Holy Grail We have analysed in-store digital proficiency 4 MARCH 2016 We have worked with ContactLab and carried out 61 store visits in New York City, measuring Luca Solca performance on 21 different parameters, looking at three areas: 1) The basic: technology in-store; (+44) 203 430 8503 2) The developed: how digital clients are received and services in-store; 3) The advanced: how digital is leveraged to make the most of traffic in-store. Overall Ralph Lauren is the leader in Melania Grippo bringing digital innovations into stores and connecting Online and Offline environments, followed by (+39) 02 89 63 1724 Bergdorf Goodman and Burberry. We expect several companies to achieve Digital and Physical retail integration in the coming quarters. Guido Lucarelli (+39) 02 89 63 1726 Digital offers an ROIC accretive growth avenue Expanding retail networks at a time of more muted demand growth risks diluting space productivity: a capital sin for any retailer and a guaranteed way to sink ROIC and TSR. By contrast, digital is one of the profitable "growth pockets" available to luxury goods players today: 1) consumers are ContactLab embracing digital and spending more and more luxury dollars online; 2) being late to the party, luxury players can take advantage of established technologies and choose from a long list of Marco Pozzi service providers. Coupled with their small volumes, this caps their capex requirements; 3) luxury (+39) 02 28 31 181 brands enjoy large average baskets, limiting concerns over fulfilment costs; 4) digital sales carry materially lower SG&A costs (rent, personnel, etc.) and higher margins. Alexandra Bertasio (+39) 02 28 31 181 Combining physical and digital retail has obvious benefits Consumers buying luxury goods both online and in-store spend c.50% more per year than in-store Davide Sarra only customers. When goods are out of stock, offering consumers the opportunity to order online (+39) 02 28 31 181 in-store and receive their purchases at home increases conversion rates and – ultimately – 2 sales/m . Providing order online and pick-up in-store opens cross-selling opportunities – similar to order online and return/exchange in-store. Both ultimately support space productivity. As most luxury brands have become retailers, space productivity must be their North Star. Down the road – as digital luxury takes off – this will require brands to right-size their POS networks, something best-in-class players are already doing. See Appendix (on p42) for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Non-US Research Analyst disclosures. Contents Executive Summary _______________________________________ 3 The Cross Channel Opportunity _____________________________ 5 Research Methodology ___________________________________ 12 In-Store Digital Proficiency _________________________________ 14 Technology in-store __________________________________________________ 17 Dealing with Digital Clients in-store ______________________________________ 26 Online Promotion while in-store _________________________________________ 34 Exane – presentation _____________________________________ 41 ContactLab presentation __________________________________ 41 Exane BNP Paribas Research & ContactLab Luxury Goods 4 March 2016 page 2 Executive Summary We have analysed in-store digital proficiency We have worked with ContactLab and carried out 61 store visits in New York City, measuring performance on 21 different parameters, looking at three areas: 1) The basic: technology in-store; 2) The developed: how digital clients are received and services in-store; 3) The advanced: how digital is leveraged to make the most of traffic in-store. Overall Ralph Lauren is the leader in bringing digital innovations into stores and connecting Online and Offline environments, followed by Bergdorf Goodman and Burberry. We expect several companies to achieve Digital and Physical retail integration in the coming quarters. Figure 1: Ralph Lauren leads in bringing digital innovations into stores and connecting the online and offline, followed by Bergdorf Goodman and Burberry. Many luxury brands are trailing In-Store Digital Proficiency, New York, December 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 MAX SCORE Ralph Lauren Bergdorf Goodman Burberry Louis Vuitton Saks Macy's Barneys Zegna Coach Hugo Boss Tiffany Cartier Gucci Tory Burch Michael Kors Jeweller Valentino High-End Hermès Runner-up Armani Mega-Brand Premium Fendi Department Stores Loro Piana Balenciaga Bulgari Prada Brunello Cucinelli Givenchy Moncler Bottega Veneta Tod's Chanel Dior Dolce&Gabbana Ferragamo Saint Laurent Céline Source: ContactLab Analysis Exane BNP Paribas Research & ContactLab Luxury Goods 4 March 2016 page 3 Digital offers an ROIC accretive growth avenue Expanding retail networks at a time of more muted demand growth risks diluting space productivity: a capital sin for any retailer and a guaranteed way to sink ROIC and TSR. By contrast, digital is one of the profitable "growth pockets" available to luxury goods players today: 1) consumers are embracing digital and spending more and more luxury dollars online; 2) being late to the party, luxury players can take advantage of established technologies and choose from a long list of service providers. Coupled with their small volumes, this caps their capex requirements; 3) luxury brands enjoy large average baskets, limiting concerns over fulfilment costs; 4) digital sales carry materially lower SG&A costs (rent, personnel, etc.) and higher margins. Combining physical and digital retail has obvious benefits Consumers buying luxury goods both online and in-store spend c.50% more per year than in-store only customers. When goods are out of stock, offering consumers the opportunity to order online in-store and receive their purchases at home increases 2 conversion rates and – ultimately – sales/m . Providing order online and pick-up in- store opens cross-selling opportunities – similar to order online and return/exchange in- store. Both ultimately support space productivity. As most luxury brands have become retailers, space productivity must be their North Star. Down the road – as digital luxury takes off – this will require brands to right-size their POS networks, something best-in- class players are already doing. Exane BNP Paribas Research & ContactLab Luxury Goods 4 March 2016 page 4 The Cross Channel Opportunity Digital offers an ROIC accretive growth avenue Expanding retail networks at a time of more muted demand growth risks diluting space productivity: a capital sin for any retailer and a guaranteed way to sink ROIC and TSR. By contrast, digital is one of the profitable "growth pockets" available to luxury goods players today: 1) consumers are embracing digital and spending more and more luxury dollars online; 2) being late to the party, luxury players can take advantage of established technologies and choose from a long list of service providers. Coupled with their small volumes, this caps capex requirements; 3) luxury brands enjoy large average baskets, limiting concerns over fulfilment costs; 4) digital sales carry materially lower SG&A costs (rent, personnel, etc.) and higher margins. Figure 2: Expanding retail networks at a time of more muted demand growth risks diluting space productivity and ROCE (1/2) LVMH Organics Sales Growth (%) / Stores growth (%) vs ROCE y/y growth /%) 25% R² = 0.9439 2010 20% 15% 10% 2011 5% 0% 2013 2012 -5% ROCE (y/y ROCE % (y/y growth) -10% 2014 2009 -15% -20% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Organic Sales Growth (%) / Stores growth (%) Note: Stores growth and Sales growth refers to LVMH F&LG division only – ROCE is calculated on LVMH Group Source: Exane BNP Paribas estimates and analysis Exane BNP Paribas Research & ContactLab Luxury Goods 4 March 2016 page 5 Figure 3: Expanding retail networks at a time of more muted demand growth risks diluting space productivity and ROCE (2/2) History of ROCE Source: Exane BNP Paribas estimates and analysis Figure 4: ROCE has a direct impact on total shareholders return ROCE improvement (2004-2014 % ppts) vs. TSR (2004-2014 %) Source: Company Reports, Exane BNP Paribas Estimates and Analysis Exane BNP Paribas Research & ContactLab Luxury Goods 4 March 2016 page 6 Figure 5: The number of registered and digitally contactable clients continues to rise 40% Number of Digitally-Contactable Clients (y oy % chg) 30% 20% 40% Rev enues from Digitally-Contactable Clients (y oy % chg) 10% 35% 30% 0% 2012 vs 2011 2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013 25% 20% 40% Av ge Yearly Spend by Digitally-Contactable Clients 15% (y oy % chg) 10% 30% 5% 20% 0% 2012 vs 2011 2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013 10% 0% (10%) 2012 vs 2011 2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013 Source: ContactLab Analysis Figure 6: Digitally contactable clients spend more in-store (+16%) (1/2) Client yearly average spending (EUR, worldwide, 2013-14) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2013 2014 2013 2014 Registered Digitally Contactable Source: ContactLab2 Analysis Exane BNP Paribas Research & ContactLab Luxury Goods 4 March 2016 page 7 Figure 7: Digitally contactable clients spend more in-store (+16%) (2/2) Client yearly average in-store spending (worldwide, 2013–14) 120 116 115 110 109 105 100 100 95 90 In-Store Registered Digitally-Contactable Digitally-Contactable (index = 100) 2013 2014 Source: ContactLab Analysis Figure 8: Whilst still a relatively small channel, online is expected to drive c.40% of luxury market growth over the 2013-20E period – of which c.20% to come from the development of mono-brand
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