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Structure Study BWe mobile 2011 Baden-Württemberg on the way to electromobility e-mobil BW GmbH – State Agency for Electromobility and Fuel Cell Technology Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (IAO) Ministry for Finance and Economics Baden-Württemberg The Stuttgart Region Economic Development Corporation (WRS) CONTENT Preface 4 Core findings and implications 5 1 Starting position and objectives 6 2 The automobile industry on the way to electromobility 8 2.1 Propulsion and vehicle concepts 8 2.2 Components of electric vehicles and current areas of development focus 11 2.2.1 Energy storage devices in general 11 2.2.2 Components of the battery-powered electric drivetrain 18 2.2.3 Other components 27 2.3 Factors influencing production 31 2.4 Today’s markets and market scenarios 35 2.4.1 Market development scenarios 35 2.4.2 Life cycle cost considerations 37 2.4.3 Convergence of sectors 40 2.5 Overview of subsidies 44 3 Consequences of the change for Baden-Württemberg 48 3.1 The significance of the automobile for Baden-Württemberg 48 3.1.1 Baden-Württemberg as a center of the automotive industry 48 3.1.2 Current developments in new registrations 49 3.2 Structure of the automobile industry in Baden-Württemberg 50 3.3 The automobile value creation chain and its effect on the employment structure 51 3.3.1 Changes in manufacturing costs for battery-electric vehicle concepts 51 3.3.2 Market development - drivetrain components 53 3.3.3 Consequences for Baden-Württemberg 55 3.4 Production technology as a key competitive factor 58 3.5 Training and qualification 61 4 Baden-Württemberg on route to electromobility 62 4.1 Stakeholders and competencies in the area of electromobility 62 4.1.1 The total vehicle 62 4.1.2 Battery technology 62 4.1.3 Electrification of the drivetrain 64 4.1.4 Lightweight construction 66 4.1.5 The fuel cell 68 4.1.6 Infrastructure 69 4.1.7 Thermal management 71 4.2 Networks and clusters 71 4.3 Publically funded research projects in Baden-Württemberg 72 5 Summary overview 74 Bibliography 76 List of figures 86 Abbreviations 88 Expert interviews 91 PREFACE Baden-Württemberg is Europe’s Electromobility is the mobility of number 1 innovative region, with the future. Megatrends, such as uniquely developed structures increasing global warming, the and a special enterprise land- fi nite nature of our resources, the scape, as well as an excellent growth of our cities, as well as an research and higher education increasing standard of living and landscape. In addition to major the associated stronger demands automobile manufacturers, in imposed on mobility for people Baden-Württemberg it is prima- and goods, make a revolution in rily the medium-sized companies our mobility an absolute neces- that make a decisive contribu- sity. The path to sustainable and tion to the value creation of the intelligent mobility in our cities automobile industry. Innovative has only just begun. It requires products, solutions and services from the state enjoy worldwide new thinking, and for that reason in particular, presents both great sales and recognition. opportunities and also risks for all participating stakeholders. The coming years will be marked by stricter regulatory requi- To bring electromobility to market maturity, electrifi cation of the rements, with regard to the necessary reduction of harmful CO2 drivetrain must be considered from a systems context. In the fu- vehicle emissions. Simultaneously, fossil fuels will become incre- ture, mobility will primarily require the competencies of the au- asingly scarce. Concepts for a sustainable mobility, in which elec- tomotive sector, the information and communication technology tromobility constitutes an important component, form an essential (ICT) sector and the energy sector. Crucial market synergies can prerequisite for mastering these ecological challenges and at the only be developed, and industrialization of electromobility can only same time creating economic growth. be driven, via a systemic and closely intermeshed collaboration of these three key sectors, with due consideration of the cross- Electrifi cation of the drivetrain means a huge change for the au- disciplinary fi eld of production. Baden-Württemberg, through its tomobile industry: because some components will be dispensed traditionally developed automobile industry and its combined com- with and new components will be added, the share of value crea- petence in the ICT and energy sectors, has the very best qualifi ca- tion between different participants, and possibly between econo- tions for taking a leading global role in electromobility. mic regions, will be redistributed. It is not just a networking of industries that will be the determi- Baden-Württemberg is well positioned for this change. Today, ning competitive factor. Small and medium-sized enterprises are there are already numerous activities and cluster initiatives in the the core of the economic strength in Baden-Württemberg and si- state that promote the transfer of knowledge between research multaneously provide its drive for innovation. The capabilities and and industry, and that contribute to the development of common, active integration of small and medium-sized fi rms in the change cross-industry approaches to solutions. This study provides an to electromobility are essential prerequisites for the international overview of these activities, and identifi es future potential and competitiveness of Baden-Württemberg, and they are the guaran- risks for the automobile industry, starting from the present position tors for assuring value creation and jobs in the Baden-Württem- of the state. berg automobile industry. Dr. Nils Schmid MdL Franz Loogen Deputy Minister-President and Minister for Finance and President e-mobil BW Economics of the State of Baden-Württemberg CORE FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS • Drivetrain electrification is in full swing and no longer just a • Baden-Württemberg is well-positioned as a technology loca- vision of the future. Hence, over time, electrification will incre- tion for electromobility. In research and development (R&D) of ase through the various forms of hybrid (mild hybrid, full hybrid, electrified drivetrain components and the associated charging plug-in hybrid, range extender) to the pure electric vehicle. infrastructure, due to the collaboration of higher education, re- search institutes and companies, a solid foundation exists that • In 2020, approximately 50 percent more passenger vehicles must be further extended in the future. will be sold worldwide than are currently being sold. In relative terms, the proportion of passenger vehicles with a pure com- • In order to generate significant employment effects in the state, bustion engine should drop from today’s figure of approximately it is important to generate extensive depth in value creation for 98% to around 67% in 2020. The share of pure battery electric the „new drivetrain components“. In this regard, R&D findings vehicle designs could be approximately 5 percent by the year must be transferred to industrial manufacturing. Plant enginee- 2020. ring and mechanical engineering, which is outstandingly positi- oned in the state, can and must accompany this process. • Virtually half of worldwide market potential (growth) in the year 2020 is allotted to components of the electrified drivetrain • Great potential for value creation and job creation in the sta- (electric motor, power electronics, battery system, charger), te are offered by the conventional technologies (transmission, this represents a value of approximately 100 billion EUR. efficiency technologies and the exhaust systems combustion engines), as well as by the new components, such as power • Significant cost reduction potential is anticipated in the manu- electronics, electric motors and particularly the battery system. facturing of new components. Nevertheless, by 2020, pure bat- tery electric vehicles will have significantly higher production • In the year 2020 in Baden-Württemberg, with optimal exploita- costs as compared to conventional internal combustion ve- tion of existing potential, approximately 10,000 new jobs could hicles. In a future buying decision, in addition to the purchase be generated through the „new drivetrain components“. The price, all of the operating costs of the vehicle (costs for fuel, relatively high value of the new components and the relatively electricity, taxes, insurance and maintenance) will also play an high degree of automation in manufacturing offer good overall important role. prerequisites for regional manufacturing. • As a cross-industry development, electromobility will not only • As essential stakeholders in the Baden-Württemberg automo- have an influence on the automobile industry; it will also lead bile value creation landscape, small and medium-sized enter- to a convergence of the automobile, ICT, and energy sectors. prises must be actively integrated into the knowledge transfer Innovative business models and evolving user behavior also processes of large enterprises and research institutes. A com- come into focus. petitive „electromobile“ value creation structure can only be holistically established in the state through the competencies • This change will also involve developments in the areas of pro- of medium-sized companies. duction technology and qualification of employees. This is why, in addition to new competences in processing and manufac- turing, training and education as well as continuing education content must also be extended and adapted.