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Key Economic Statistics, October 2020

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Key Economic Statistics, October 2020 15 October 2020 Key Economic Statistics – October 2020 SB 32/2020 Key points for June 2020 to August 2020 About this bulletin The employment rate in Wales was 72.7%, down 1.5 percentage points on both the previous quarter and from a year earlier. This figure includes This monthly bulletin employees that have been furloughed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) used to be a pandemic. compendium While the series can be volatile, the decrease in the employment rate over publication that the quarter was the largest quarterly decrease since 2014. Wales also had brought together the the third lowest employment rate of the 12 UK countries and English latest key statistics regions. relating to the Welsh The unemployment rate in Wales was 3.8%, up 1.0 percentage points from economy and labour the previous quarter but down 0.4 percentage points over the year and below the UK rate of 4.5%. market. Employment rate (percentage of population age 16-64) Since June, this has 78 been changed to 76 focus mainly on the 74 Labour Market and UK 72 more specifically Wales 70 focus on the impacts 68 of COVID19 on the 66 labour market 64 Key supporting 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2019 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 material: Timelier data sources Welsh Economy in The latest official labour market estimates cover the period June - August 2020. Numbers While the time period for these latest estimates covers the coronavirus pandemic, In this bulletin other data sources can offer a timelier and more complete picture in understanding This bulletin contains the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. new data on: Experimental claimant count data showed 120,000 claimants in Wales in September 2020, a rate of 7.9% of the workforce. This was the same rate Employment 4 as in July and August 2020 which were the highest rates since the middle Unemployment 10 of 1996. Economic As of the 10th September, there was a 74.5% increase of people claiming Inactivity 14 Universal Credit in Wales compared to March 2020. Statistician: Melanie Brown 0300 061 6029 [email protected] Enquiries from the press: 0300 025 8099 Public enquiries: 0300 025 5050 Twitter: @statisticswales Contents Section Page 1. Employment 4 2. Unemployment 10 3. Economic Inactivity 14 4. Workforce Jobs 17 5. Key Quality Information 18 Charts Chart Page 1.1 Employment rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 4 1.2 Employment rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 5 1.3 Employment rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 5 1.4 Public sector employment (percentage of population, not seasonally adjusted) 6 1.5 Average hours worked, UK 7 1.6 Paid employees, Wales 8 1.7 Median pay, Wales 8 1.8 Employment rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16- 9 64, not seasonally adjusted) 2.1 Unemployment rate (percentage of economically active population) 10 2.2 ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active) 11 2.3 ILO unemployment rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of 11 economically active, not seasonally adjusted) 2.4 Long-term ILO unemployment rates (percentage of all unemployed: four quarter rolling average) 12 2.5 Youth ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active: four quarter rolling average, 12 not seasonally adjusted) 2.6 Experimental claimant count rates (percentage of civilian workforce) 13 2.7 People on Universal Credit, Wales 13 3.1 Economic inactivity rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 14 3.2 Economic inactivity rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 15 3.3 Economic inactivity rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 15 3.4 Economic inactivity rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those 16 aged 16-64, not seasonally adjusted) 4.1 Workforce jobs (Index 1999=100) 17 4.2 Self-employment jobs (Index 1999=100) 17 We have suspended a large part of the bulletin in order to focus on the labour market impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. All data that is no longer in the bulletin is available elsewhere on our website. Links can be found within table 5.3 in the Key Quality Information section. 2 Revision to the Labour Force Survey On 13th October 2020, ONS revised the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period January – March 2020 to May to July 2020. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic meant that LFS interviews moved from being mainly face to face to telephone interviews earlier in the year. This led to a change in the types of households responding to the survey, and a potentially less representative sample in terms of housing tenure (with a lower proportion of rented addresses being included and an increase in the proportion of those owned outright by the occupier). The survey has therefore been reweighted so that the housing tenure distribution is the same as before the pandemic hit in March. This is explained in detail in an Office for National Statistics blog and article. Employment rate - comparison of re-weighted estimates (Wales) 80 Re-weighted estimates Previous estimates 78 76 Per Per cent 74 72 70 Jan-Mar 19 May-Jul 19 Sep-Nov 19 Jan-Mar 20 May-Jul 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey Annual Population Survey The Annual Population Survey (APS) is due to be reweighted following the revisions in the LFS. For this reason, the sections below on economic regions which use the APS have not been updated. These will instead be updated once the reweighted data is available. 3 1. Employment Figures for employment include employees that have been furloughed. After a steady decrease since late 2018, the employment rate has fluctuated since mid-2019. The decrease in the employment rate over the quarter was the largest quarterly decrease in employment since 2014. Wales also had the third lowest employment rate of the 12 UK countries and English regions. It is possible that the decrease in the employment rate in Wales is an indication of the impact the coronavirus pandemic is having on the labour market, although the series can be volatile. In particular, short term changes should be treated with caution. However, the employment rate in the UK has also fallen. This, together with the fact that the quarterly decrease in the employment rate is the largest in 6 years, suggests that the changes presented this month are a direct impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Other sources explored in this section such as the number of people furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, the number of paid employees in Wales and the average number of hours worked give further indication of the impact on the labour market. Looking at the latest Labour Force Survey statistics in more detail, there were 1.5 million people in employment in Wales in June to August 2020, down 37,000 (2.5%) on the previous quarter, and down 21,000 (1.4%) on the previous year. This is a rate of 72.7% of those aged 16-64, which is 1.5 percentage points down on the previous quarter and also 1.5 percentage points down from the same period a year earlier. The employment level in the UK was 32.6 million, down 153,000 (0.5%) on the previous quarter, and down 102,000 (0.3%) over the year. This is a rate of 75.6% of those aged 16-64, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than the rate for Wales (Chart 1.1). Chart 1.1: Employment rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 78 UK 76 74 Wales 72 70 68 Jun-Aug 15 Jun-Aug 16 Jun-Aug 17 Jun-Aug 18 Jun-Aug 19 Jun-Aug 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey In June to August 2020, the employment rate for men fell further in Wales than for women. Across the UK, these differences were more pronounced with the employment rate for men falling compared to both the previous quarter and the year, whereas the employment rate for women fell slightly compared to the previous quarter, and increased on the year. There were 754,000 men in employment in Wales in June to August 2020, down 21,000 (2.7%) on the previous quarter and down 12,000 (1.6%) from a year earlier. This is a rate of 75.2% of those 4 aged 16-64, down 1.8 percentage points on the previous quarter, and down 1.4 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. The number of men in employment in the UK was 17.0 million, down 115,000 (0.7%) over the quarter and down 213,000 (1.2%) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 79.1% of those aged 16-64, down 1.1 percentage points over the year. (Chart 1.2) Chart 1.2: Employment rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 82 UK 80 78 Wales 76 74 72 70 Jun-Aug 15 Jun-Aug 16 Jun-Aug 17 Jun-Aug 18 Jun-Aug 19 Jun-Aug 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey There were 698,000 women in employment in Wales in June to August 2020, down 16,000 (2.2%) on the previous quarter, and down 9,000 (1.3%) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 70.1% of those aged 16-64, down 1.2 percentage points on the previous quarter and down 1.2 percentage points from a year earlier.
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