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Key Economic Statistics, December 2020 SB 42/2020

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Key Economic Statistics, December 2020 SB 42/2020 17 December 2020 Key Economic Statistics, December 2020 SB 42/2020 Key points for August 2020 to October 2020 About this bulletin The latest Labour Force Survey data (August to October 2020) shows some of the largest impacts on the labour market seen during the pandemic. This monthly bulletin used to be a The employment rate in Wales was 72.4%, down 1.4 percentage points on previous quarter and 1.9 percentage points from a year earlier. compendium publication that The unemployment rate in Wales was 4.6%, up 1.4 percentage points from brought together the the previous quarter and up 1.0 percentage points over the year and below the UK rate of 4.9%. latest key statistics relating to the Welsh There were 13,000 redundancies in Wales. This is the second highest economy and labour redundancy level since November to January 2013. Redundancy figures for July to September 2020 were the highest seen in over a decade. market. Since June, this has Employment rate (percentage of population age 16-64) been changed to focus mainly on the Labour 78 Market and more 76 specifically focus on 74 UK the impacts of 72 Wales COVID19 on the 70 labour market 68 66 Key supporting 64 material: Welsh Economy in 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2013 2016 2019 2000 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2014 2015 2017 2018 2020 Numbers Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics Other data sources In this bulletin The latest official labour market estimates cover the period August to October This bulletin contains 2020. Other data sources, such as the number of paid employees, can also be new data on: used to produce a more complete picture. Employment 3 Early estimates for November 2020 indicate that the number of paid Unemployment 9 employees in Wales was 1.23 million. This was a decrease of 30,300 (2.4%) on February 2020. Economic Inactivity 14 th As of the 12 November, there was a 77.1% increase of people claiming Universal Credit in Wales compared to March 2020. Statistician: Melanie Brown 0300 061 6029 [email protected] Enquiries from the press: 0300 025 8099 Public enquiries: 0300 025 5050 Twitter: @StatisticsWales Contents Section Page 1. Employment 3 2. Unemployment 9 3. Economic Inactivity 14 4. Workforce Jobs 17 5. Key Quality Information 18 Charts Chart Page 1.1 Employment rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 3 1.2 Employment rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 4 1.3 Employment rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 4 1.4 Public sector employment (percentage of population, not seasonally adjusted) 5 1.5 Average hours worked, UK 6 1.6 Paid employees, Wales 7 1.7 Median pay, Wales 7 1.8 Employment rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16- 8 64, not seasonally adjusted) 2.1 Unemployment rate (percentage of economically active population) 9 2.2 ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active) 10 2.3 ILO unemployment rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of 10 economically active, not seasonally adjusted) 2.4 Long-term ILO unemployment rates (percentage of all unemployed: four quarter rolling average) 11 2.5 Youth ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active: four quarter rolling average, 11 not seasonally adjusted) 2.6 Redundancy Rate 12 2.7 Experimental claimant count rates (percentage of civilian workforce) 13 2.8 People on Universal Credit, Wales 13 3.1 Economic inactivity rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 14 3.2 Economic inactivity rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 15 3.3 Economic inactivity rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 15 3.4 Economic inactivity rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those 16 aged 16-64, not seasonally adjusted) 4.1 Workforce jobs (Index 1999=100) 17 4.2 Self-employment jobs (Index 1999=100) 17 We have suspended a large part of the bulletin in order to focus on the labour market impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. All data that is no longer in the bulletin is available elsewhere on our website. Links can be found within table 5.3 in the Key Quality Information section. 2 1. Employment Figures for employment include employees that have been furloughed. Following a steady decrease since late 2018, the employment rate has fluctuated since mid-2019. Last month, Wales experienced the largest quarterly decrease in the employment rate since records began in 1992. Wales also had the third lowest employment rate of the 12 UK countries and English regions. The decrease in the employment rate in Wales is an indication of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the labour market, although the series can be volatile. In particular, short term changes should be treated with caution. However, the employment rate in the UK has also fallen. This, together with the observed quarterly decrease in the employment rate, suggests that the changes presented this month are a direct impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Other sources explored in this section such as the number of people furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, the number of paid employees in Wales and the average number of hours worked give further indication of the impact on the labour market. Looking at the latest Labour Force Survey statistics in more detail, there were 1.46 million people in employment in Wales in August to October 2020, down 13,000 (0.9%) on the previous quarter, and down 18,000 (1.2%) on the previous year. This is a rate of 72.4% of those aged 16-64, which is 1.4 percentage points down on the previous quarter and down 1.9 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. The employment level in the UK was 32.5 million, down 144,000 (0.4%) on the previous quarter, and down 280,000 (0.9%) over the year. This is a rate of 75.2% of those aged 16-64, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the rate for Wales (Chart 1.1). Chart 1.1: Employment rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 78 UK 76 74 Wales 72 70 68 Aug-Oct 15 Aug-Oct 16 Aug-Oct 17 Aug-Oct 18 Aug-Oct 19 Aug-Oct 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey In August to October 2020, the employment rate in Wales fell further for men than women compared to the previous quarter and year. The employment rate for men was the lowest in just over 5 years in the UK and the second lowest in 5 years in Wales. There were 750,000 men in employment in Wales in August to October 2020, down 18,000 (2.4%) on the previous quarter and down 24,000 (3.1%) from a year earlier. This is a rate of 74.1% of 3 those aged 16-64, down 2.7 percentage points on the previous quarter, and down 3.5 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. The number of men in employment in the UK was 17.0 million, down 166,000 (1.0%) over the quarter and down 353,000 (2.0%) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 78.4% of those aged 16-64, down 1.9 percentage points over the year. (Chart 1.2) Chart 1.2: Employment rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 82 UK 80 78 76 Wales 74 72 70 Aug-Oct 15 Aug-Oct 16 Aug-Oct 17 Aug-Oct 18 Aug-Oct 19 Aug-Oct 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey There were 711,000 women in employment in Wales in August to October 2020, up 6,000 (0.8%) on both the previous quarter and the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 70.8% of those aged 16-64, down 0.2 percentage points on the previous quarter and down 0.3 percentage points from a year earlier. The number of women in employment in the UK was 15.6 million, up 22,000 (0.1%) over the quarter, and up 73,000 (0.5%) over the year. This is a rate of 72.1% of those aged 16-64, up from 72.0% a year earlier. (Chart 1.3) Chart 1.3: Employment rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 74 UK 72 70 Wales 68 66 64 Aug-Oct 15 Aug-Oct 16 Aug-Oct 17 Aug-Oct 18 Aug-Oct 19 Aug-Oct 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey According to Public Sector Employment data, there were 302,000 people employed in the public sector in Wales in 2020 Q3, up 2.9% from a year earlier. This is 9.6% of the population, up 0.3 percentage points on the same quarter a year earlier. 4 Public sector employment in the UK over the same period increased by 2.7% to 5.6 million. This is 8.3% of the population, up 0.2 percentage points on the previous year. (Chart 1.4) Chart 1.4: Public sector employment (percentage of population, not seasonally adjusted) 11 10 Wales 9 UK 8 7 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017Q3 2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Regional Public Sector Employment, ONS Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough) As at 31 October 2020, 123,000 employments in Wales were furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, a take up rate of 9% – broadly similar to the take up rate across the UK.
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