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Monthly Mortality Analysis, England and Wales: March 2021

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Monthly Mortality Analysis, England and Wales: March 2021 Statistical bulletin Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales: March 2021 Provisional death registration data for England and Wales, broken down by sex, age and country. Includes deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) and leading causes of death. Contact: Release date: Next release: Danielle Cornish 22 April 2021 20 May 2021 [email protected] +44 (0)1329 444110 Table of contents 1. Main points 2. Death registrations and the overall mortality rate for March 2021 3. Deaths due to COVID-19 registered in March 2021 4. Leading causes of death 5. Age-standardised mortality rates by sex and age group, in March 2021 6. Deaths registered in the year-to-date 7. Death occurrences in March 2021 and year-to-date 8. Pre-existing conditions of people whose death was recorded with an underlying cause of COVID-19, deaths registered in 2020 9. Monthly mortality data 10. Glossary 11. Measuring the data 12. Strengths and limitations 13. Related links Page 1 of 22 1 . Main points There were 45,567 deaths registered in England in March 2021, 656 deaths (1.5%) more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019) for March; in Wales, there were 2,984 deaths registered, 87 deaths (2.8%) fewer than the five-year average for March. The coronavirus (COVID-19) was the third leading cause of death in March 2021 in both England (accounting for 9.2% of all deaths registered in March) and in Wales (6.3% of all deaths); COVID-19 was previously the leading cause of death for four consecutive months. The leading cause of death was dementia and Alzheimer's disease in England (accounting for 10.1% of all deaths registered in March) and ischaemic heart diseases in Wales (11.8% of all deaths). The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of deaths due to COVID-19 in March 2021 was 89.3 deaths per 100,000 people in England, the lowest rate since November 2020, and 65.2 deaths per 100,000 people in Wales, the lowest rate since October 2020. The East Midlands was the English region with the highest mortality rate for deaths due to COVID-19 in March 2021 (118.9 deaths per 100,000 people), followed by the West Midlands (103.8 deaths per 100,000 people); the South West continued to have the lowest COVID-19 mortality rate, at 45.7 deaths per 100,000 people. This month's bulletin includes an interactive map of deaths due to COVID-19 in each Middle layer Super Output Area (see Section 3). The accompanying datasets also include mortality rates for deaths due to COVID-19 by local area and deprivation, deaths involving COVID-19 for the UK and pre-existing conditions of people who died due to COVID-19 in 2020. 2 . Death registrations and the overall mortality rate for March 2021 Based on provisional data, there were 45,567 deaths registered in England in March 2021. This was 956 fewer deaths than in March 2020 and 656 deaths more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019). The number of deaths in March 2021 was within the five-year range of deaths registered in March in 2015 to 2019. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per month in a usual (non-pandemic) year. Of the deaths registered in March 2021, 23,167 were males and 22,400 were females. In Wales, the provisional number of deaths registered in March 2021 was 2,984. This was 150 fewer deaths than in March 2020 and 87 fewer deaths than the five-year average for March. The number of deaths in March 2021 was within the five-year range of deaths registered in March in 2015 to 2019. Of the deaths registered in March in Wales, there were 1,547 male deaths and 1,437 female deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) are used for comparisons over time rather than numbers of deaths, as ASMRs account for changes to the population size and age structure. In England, mortality rates for the month of March had been generally decreasing since our data time series began in 2001, from 1,314.8 deaths per 100,000 people in 2001, to a low of 901.2 deaths per 100,000 people in March 2019. The statistically significant decrease in ASMRs from 2001 was seen in both males and females (Figure 1). From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, there was a statistically significant increase in the mortality rate (compared with March 2019) to 1,005.3 deaths per 100,000 people in England; this significant increase was seen in both males and females. Page 2 of 22 In England, the March 2021 mortality rate (966.3 deaths per 100,000 people) was statistically significantly lower than the mortality rate for March 2020, but remained significantly higher than the mortality rate for March 2019. The March 2021 mortality rate was also significantly lower than all other March mortality rates since our data time series began in 2001, with the exception of March 2014. The Excess winter mortality in England and Wales: 2013 to 2014 (provisional) release explained that, at the time of publishing (November 2014), excess deaths for the 2013 to 2014 winter were at the lowest number since records began in 1950 to 1951. The mortality rate in March 2021 was 1,128.9 deaths per 100,000 males (compared with 1,622.6 in March 2001) and 828.5 deaths per 100,000 females (compared with 1,106.7 in March 2001). In Wales, 2005 was the year with the highest March mortality rate since our data time series began in 2001. Over time, mortality rates in Wales have decreased from 1,456.6 deaths per 100,000 people in March 2005 to a low of 965.1 deaths per 100,000 people in March 2019. With the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, there was a statistically significant increase in the mortality rate (compared with March 2019) to 1,103.1 deaths per 100,000 people in Wales; this significant increase was also seen in both males and females. In March 2021, the mortality rate decreased (compared with March 2020) to 1,038.1 deaths per 100,000 people in Wales, with both males and females experiencing a decrease in deaths, however, none of these decreases were statistically significant. Page 3 of 22 Figure 1: Mortality rates for the month of March were lower in 2021 than in 2020, for males and females in England and Wales Age-standardised mortality rates by sex, England and Wales, deaths registered in March 2001 to March 2021 Source: Office for National Statistics – Monthly mortality analysis Notes: 1. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 people, standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population. Monthly rates in this bulletin are adjusted to allow for comparisons with annual rates. For more information, see Section 11: Measuring the data. 2. Figures are for deaths registered rather than deaths occurring in each period. 3. Figures for 2020 and 2021 are based on provisional mortality data and projected populations. 4. Figures exclude non-residents. 5. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per month in a usual (non-pandemic) year. 3 . Deaths due to COVID-19 registered in March 2021 The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Using this information, we determine an underlying cause of death. More information on this process can be found in our user guide. Page 4 of 22 In March in most cases (78.7% in England and 71.3% in Wales) where the coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate, it was found to be the underlying cause of death. For more information on our definition of COVID-19 deaths, see Section 11: Measuring the data. In this bulletin, we use the term "due to COVID-19" when referring only to deaths with an underlying cause of death of COVID-19 and we use the term "involving COVID-19" when referring to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not. Of the 45,567 deaths registered in March 2021 in England, 9.2% (4,198 deaths) were due to COVID-19. Taking into account all deaths involving COVID-19 increases the percentage to 11.7% of all deaths (5,336 deaths) in England in March 2021. This is the largest month-on-month decrease since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic (72.0% fewer deaths compared with February 2021). In Wales, 6.3% of the 2,984 deaths registered in March 2021 were due to COVID-19 (189 deaths). Taking into account all deaths involving COVID-19 increases the percentage to 8.9% of all deaths (265 deaths) in Wales. Deaths due to COVID-19 in England and Wales Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) allow us to adjust for the size and age structure of the population. ASMRs for deaths due to COVID-19 had been increasing month-on-month (since the increase between August and September 2020 in England and between September and October 2020 in Wales), but significantly decreased in February 2021 and continued to decrease in March 2021 (Figure 2).
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