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Official Statistics Highlights, Summer Series 2020 29 May 2020 Figure 1: Summer GCSE entries About this release 400,000 This statistical release 334,095 There were 307,925 305,745 307,925 290,640 provides information on 300,000 GCSE entries for the the provisional number Summer 2020 series. 200,000 of exam entries in Wales for the summer 2020 100,000 0.7% increase in series. The release covers GCSE entries 0 GCSE, AS, A level, Level 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Awarding bodies - Entries by Year Group collection, 2018 and later - Qualifications Wales; 2017 - Ofqual 1/2 certificates and Skills Challenge Certificate Figure 2: Summer GCSE entries by year group entries for centres in 300,000 Wales. The data was Year 11 submitted to us by 200,000 entries awarding bodies by 4 down by 100,000 May ahead of the summer 2020 series. 0.1% 0 These statistics have 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year 10 or below Year 11 Year 12 or above been published as official Source: Awarding bodies - Entries by Year Group collection, 2018 and later - Qualifications Wales; 2017 - Ofqual statistics. Figure 3: Summer AS and A level entries Contents 1.9% 50,000 Introduction…………….. 2 increase in AS 40,000 level entries 30,000 Statistics…….…............... 6 20,000 4.5% 10,000 Glossary of terms..….. 33 decrease in A 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 Background notes...... 35 level entries AS A level Source: Awarding bodies - Entries by Year Group collection, 2018 and later - Qualifications Wales; 2017 - Ofqual Statistician: Jonathan Davey 01633 373 261 [email protected] Media enquiries: Alan Morris 01633 373 216 [email protected] 1 INTRODUCTION Qualifications Wales is the regulator of qualifications, other than degrees, and the qualifications system in Wales. From summer 2018, we have collected and reported on data for Wales for general qualifications. Before summer 2018, data for Wales was collected and published by Ofqual, the qualifications regulator in England. Data in this release relating to summer 2017 were collected and published by Ofqual. In this release, we present data on the number of entries for GCSEs, AS and A levels, Level 1 and Level 2 Certificates and Skills Challenge Certificate in Wales for the summer 2020 exam series. COVID-19 On 18 March 2020, the Minister for Education Kirsty Williams announced that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the summer 2020 exam series would not proceed as planned1. Learners due to sit their GCSEs and A levels this summer are due to be awarded a fair grade to recognise their work, drawing on the range of information available. Despite the unique circumstances surrounding the summer 2020 exam series, provisional entries data has been collected as it normally would. The one change made was to delay the data collection deadline from mid-April to early May to help ease the burden on awarding bodies during an extremely busy and challenging period. The figures represent the number of qualification entries, rounded to the nearest 5, submitted by awarding bodies by 4 May 2020, reflecting the position at 14 April 2020. The number of entries can change after this date. However, as most entries are made before mid-March, the impact of exam centres closing on the statistics reported in this release is likely to be small. Individual students would usually have more than one qualification entry across subjects. 1 https://gov.wales/statement-minster-education-kirsty-williams-school-closures-wales 2 EXTERNAL INFLUENCES There are a number of factors that can influence why entries for year groups might change over time, for example changes to: • population size; • entry behaviour e.g. when learners are entered for their GCSEs; • the number of qualifications of each type being taken on average, for example, the number of AS levels being studied; • the types of qualifications being taken in post-16. The latest available official statistics on the Wales population aged 16, 17 or 18 years old are the population projections published by the Welsh Government2. These show a 3.8% decrease in the population of 18-year-olds in 2020 compared to 2019 but a 1.9% increase for 16-year-olds and a 0.6% increase for 17-year-olds. These changes might mean an upward influence from population on GCSE and AS entries and a downward influence on A level entries. Table 1: Wales Population Changes Year 16-year-olds 17-year-olds 18-year-olds 2020 33,625 33,149 33,355 2019 33,002 32,939 34,685 Change (2020 - 2019) 623 210 -1,330 Percentage change ((2020 - 2019) / 2019) 1.9% 0.6% -3.8% Source: Welsh Government As this release is based on counts of entries at qualification level it is not possible for us to quantify the impact of such factors. We have commented on factors influencing changes in entries only where we are confident that these factors are likely to be associated with a change. 2 https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Population-and- Migration/Population/Projections/National/2016-based/populationprojections-by-year-age 3 Qualification reform Following the Welsh Government’s review of qualifications for 14 to 19-year-olds3 in 2012, a new set of reformed qualifications for GCSEs, AS, and A levels have been introduced in Wales. These reformed qualifications have been designed specifically to meet the needs of learners in Wales. The reformed qualifications were introduced for first teaching in three phases. Phase 1 qualifications were taught from September 2015, Phase 2 from September 2016 and Phase 3 from September 2017. Information about these changes, and a list of the subjects included in each phase can be found on our website4. All reformed qualifications have been previously awarded and there are no qualifications that are being awarded in 2020 for the first time. In this release the terms “approved GCSEs”, “approved AS levels”, and “approved A levels”, refer to the new qualifications designed specifically for Wales, unless otherwise stated. Further information around qualification reform is included in the Background Notes section of this release. Performance measures In October 2017 changes were announced to how Welsh Government calculates performance measures. From summer 2019, only a pupil’s first entry to a GCSE exam will count towards school performance measures. Previously the best grade achieved counted. The number of reserved slots for literacy, numeracy and science GCSEs was reduced from five to three, leaving six unreserved slots for other qualifications that are eligible for public funding in Wales. In the literacy slot, the ‘best of the first’ grades achieved in the English Language, English Literature, Welsh Language or Welsh Literature GCSE will count. In the numeracy slot, the ‘best of the first’ grades achieved in the Mathematics or Mathematics-Numeracy GCSE will count. In the science slot, the 3 Welsh Government (2014) Review of Qualifications 14-19. [online]. Available from: https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2018-02/review-of-qualifications-for-14-to-19-year- olds-in-wales-final-report-and-recommendations_0.pdf 4 http://qualificationswales.org/english/qualifications/gcses-and-a-levels/gq-reform/what-subjects-are- available/ 4 ‘best of the first’ grades in the Science GCSEs will count, with the higher grade in the double award qualifications counting. Welsh Baccalaureate (Welsh Bacc) A new Welsh Bacc was introduced for first teaching from September 2015. The reformed Welsh Bacc is made up of the Skills Challenge Certificate qualification and supporting qualifications5. Entries for the Skills Challenge Certificate are included in the statistics in this publication. 5 https://qualificationswales.org/english/qualifications/welsh-baccalaureate/ 5 STATISTICS GCSE ENTRIES Figure 4: GCSE total entries by year group 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year 10 or below Year 11 Year 12 or above Source: Awarding bodies - Entries by Year Group collection, 2018 and later - Qualifications Wales; 2017 - Ofqual • There were 307,925 GCSE entries for summer 2020. This is up by 0.7% compared to GCSE entries for summer 2019. • The small increase in total GCSE entries this summer compared to the previous summer was mainly driven by increases in Year 10 and Year 12 entries. • Year 11 represents a pupil’s final year in compulsory schooling. This year group are the most likely to enter for GCSEs in the summer, accounting for 88.9% of total GCSE entries in summer 2020. Year 11 entries remained stable, decreasing by 0.1% compared to summer 2019. • Year 10 or below entries contributed 5.5% of all GCSE entries this summer, up from 4.9% last summer. • Year 12 or above entries made up 5.5%, unchanged from last summer. 6 APPROVED GCSES All three phases of approved GCSEs will be awarded this summer. 291,995 (94.8%) of the total summer 2020 GCSE entries were for these qualifications. The remainder of the GCSE entries this summer were for legacy qualifications (which may include resits), unreformed subjects or qualifications reformed for use primarily in England (see section on qualification reform in Background Notes). PHASE 1 REFORM Approved phase 1 GCSE entries accounted for 43.7% of total GCSE entries for summer 2020. 2017 was the first summer exam series in which these GCSEs were awarded. Figure 5 : Approved phase 1 GCSE entries by year group 125,000 100,000 Total entries for approved 75,000 phase 1 GCSEs increased by 0.8% to 134,615 entries in 50,000 summer 2020. A 3.8% 25,000 increase in English Language entries was the 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 main driver behind this overall increase (Table 2). Year 10 or below Year 11 Year 12 or above Source: Awarding bodies - Entries by Year Group collection, 2018 and later - Qualifications Wales; 2017 - Ofqual A 0.9% decrease in year 11 entries was offset by increases of 13.0% and Table 2 : Approved phase 1 GCSE entries by subject 13.2% for the year 10 and Percentage Subject 2020 2019 year 12 age groups change English Language 37,665 36,270 3.8% respectively.
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