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Key Economic Statistics: November 2020 , File Type 12 November 2020 Key Economic Statistics, November 2020 SB 37/2020 Key points for July 2020 to September 2020 About this bulletin The latest Labour Force Survey data (July to September) shows some of the largest impacts on the labour market seen during the pandemic to date. This monthly bulletin Unemployment and employment both had the largest quarterly changes in used to be a Wales since records began in 1992 compendium publication that July to September 2020 saw the largest number of redundancies in Wales since mid-2009, with numbers significantly higher than in recent years brought together the latest key statistics The employment rate in Wales was 72.1%, down 2.5 percentage points on relating to the Welsh previous quarter and 1.8 percentage points from a year earlier. economy and labour The unemployment rate in Wales was 4.6%, up 1.9 percentage points from market. the previous quarter and up 0.8 percentage points over the year and below the UK rate of 4.8% Since June, this has Employment rate (percentage of population age 16-64) been changed to focus mainly on the Labour Market and more specifically focus on the impacts of COVID19 on the labour market Key supporting material: Welsh Economy in Numbers Other data sources In this bulletin The latest official labour market estimates cover the period July - September 2020. Other data sources, such as the number of paid employees presented later in this This bulletin contains headline, can also be used to produce a more complete picture. new data on: Experimental claimant count data showed 114,000 claimants in Wales in Employment 3 September 2020, a rate of 7.5% of the workforce. This rate was slightly Unemployment 9 lower compared to July and August 2020 which were the highest rates since the middle of 1996. Economic As of the 8th October, there was a 74.9% increase of people claiming Inactivity 14 Universal Credit in Wales compared to March 2020. Statistician: Melanie Brown 0300 061 6029 [email protected] Enquiries from the press: 0300 025 8099 Public enquiries: 0300 025 5050 Twitter: @StatisticsWales Contents Section Page 1. Employment 3 2. Unemployment 9 3. Economic Inactivity 14 4. Workforce Jobs 17 5. Key Quality Information 18 Charts Chart Page 1.1 Employment rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 3 1.2 Employment rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 4 1.3 Employment rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 4 1.4 Public sector employment (percentage of population, not seasonally adjusted) 5 1.5 Average hours worked, UK 6 1.6 Paid employees, Wales 7 1.7 Median pay, Wales 7 1.8 Employment rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16- 8 64, not seasonally adjusted) 2.1 Unemployment rate (percentage of economically active population) 9 2.2 ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active) 10 2.3 ILO unemployment rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of 10 economically active, not seasonally adjusted) 2.4 Long-term ILO unemployment rates (percentage of all unemployed: four quarter rolling average) 11 2.5 Youth ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active: four quarter rolling average, 11 not seasonally adjusted) 2.6 Redundancy levels, Wales 12 2.7 Experimental claimant count rates (percentage of civilian workforce) 13 2.8 People on Universal Credit, Wales 13 3.1 Economic inactivity rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 14 3.2 Economic inactivity rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 15 3.3 Economic inactivity rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 15 3.4 Economic inactivity rate, economic regions (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those 16 aged 16-64, not seasonally adjusted) 4.1 Workforce jobs (Index 1999=100) 17 4.2 Self-employment jobs (Index 1999=100) 17 We have suspended a large part of the bulletin in order to focus on the labour market impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. All data that is no longer in the bulletin is available elsewhere on our website. Links can be found within table 5.3 in the Key Quality Information section. Annual Population Survey The Annual Population Survey (APS) is due to be reweighted following the revisions in the LFS. For this reason, the sections below on economic regions which use the APS have not been updated. These will instead be updated once the reweighted data is available. 2 1. Employment Figures for employment include employees that have been furloughed. After a steady decrease since late 2018, the employment rate has fluctuated since mid-2019. The decrease in the employment rate over the latest quarter was the largest quarterly decrease in employment since records began in 1992. Wales also had the third lowest employment rate of the 12 UK countries and English regions. The decrease in the employment rate in Wales is an indication of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the labour market, although the series can be volatile. In particular, short term changes should be treated with caution. However, the employment rate in the UK has also fallen. This, together with the observed quarterly decrease in the employment rate, suggests that the changes presented this month are a direct impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Other sources explored in this section such as the number of people furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, the number of paid employees in Wales and the average number of hours worked give further indication of the impact on the labour market. Looking at the latest Labour Force Survey statistics in more detail, there were 1.4 million people in employment in Wales in July to September 2020, down 42,000 (2.9%) on the previous quarter, and down 31,000 (2.1%) on the previous year. This is a rate of 72.1% of those aged 16-64, which is 2.5 percentage points down on the previous quarter and also 1.8 percentage points down from the same period a year earlier. The employment level in the UK was 32.5 million, down 164,000 (0.5%) on the previous quarter, and down 247,000 (0.8%) over the year. This is a rate of 75.3% of those aged 16-64, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the rate for Wales (Chart 1.1). Chart 1.1: Employment rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 78 UK 76 74 Wales 72 70 68 Jul-Sep 15 Jul-Sep 16 Jul-Sep 17 Jul-Sep 18 Jul-Sep 19 Jul-Sep 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey In July to September 2020, the employment rate in Wales fell further for men than women compared to the previous quarter and year. The employment rate for men was the lowest in 5 years in Wales, and in the UK the lowest in just over 5 years. There were 742,000 men in employment in Wales in July to September 2020, down 33,000 (4.2%) on the previous quarter and down 30,000 (3.9%) from a year earlier. This is a rate of 74.0% of those aged 16-64, down 3.3 percentage points on the previous quarter, and down 3.0 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. The number of men in employment in the UK was 17.0 3 million, down 134,000 (0.8%) over the quarter and down 319,000 (1.8%) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 78.6% of those aged 16-64, down 1.7 percentage points over the year. (Chart 1.2) Chart 1.2: Employment rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 82 UK 80 78 Wales 76 74 72 70 Jul-Sep 15 Jul-Sep 16 Jul-Sep 17 Jul-Sep 18 Jul-Sep 19 Jul-Sep 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey There were 702,000 women in employment in Wales in July to September 2020, down 10,000 (1.4%) on the previous quarter, and down 1,500 (0.2%) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 70.1% of those aged 16-64, down 1.7 percentage points on the previous quarter and down 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier. The number of women in employment in the UK was 15.5 million, down 30,000 (0.2%) over the quarter, but up 73,000 (0.5%) over the year. This is a rate of 71.9% of those aged 16-64, up from 71.8% a year earlier. (Chart 1.3) Chart 1.3: Employment rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 74 UK 72 70 Wales 68 66 64 Jul-Sep 15 Jul-Sep 16 Jul-Sep 17 Jul-Sep 18 Jul-Sep 19 Jul-Sep 20 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey According to Public Sector Employment data, there were 301,000 people employed in the public sector in Wales in 2020 Q2, up 2.4% from a year earlier. This is 9.5% of the population, up 0.3 percentage points on the same quarter a year earlier. Public sector employment in the UK over the same period increased by 1.4% to 5.5 million. This is 8.2% of the population, up 0.2 percentage points on the previous year. (Chart 1.4) 4 Chart 1.4: Public sector employment (percentage of population, not seasonally adjusted) 11 10 Wales 9 UK 8 7 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017Q2 2018Q2 2019Q2 2020Q2 Source: Welsh Government analysis of Regional Public Sector Employment, ONS Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough) As at 31 August 2020, 130,400 employments in Wales were furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.
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