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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Resuming Coverage with CL-Buy: Platform Opportunity

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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Resuming Coverage with CL-Buy: Platform Opportunity December 12, 2010 ACTION Buy Apple Inc. (AAPL) Return Potential: 34% Equity Research Resuming coverage with CL-Buy: platform opportunity still nascent Source of opportunity Investment Profile We are resuming coverage of Apple with a Buy rating and 12-month target Low High price of $430 and placing it on our Americas Conviction List. We believe Growth Growth Apple’s platform-centric business model is the secret sauce that has Returns * Returns * Multiple Multiple enabled it to quickly capture market share in new computing segments Volatility Volatility while simultaneously enjoying considerable margin leverage. Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th Furthermore, we believe significant growth and profit opportunities for Apple Inc. (AAPL) this platform still lie ahead. As a result, we expect revenue and earnings Americas Technology Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the expectations to continue to trend upward, and we view the shares as investment profile measures please refer to attractive at current levels. the disclosure section of this document. Catalyst Key data Current Price ($) 320.56 Apple’s recent gross margin trends and guidance have caused some 12 month price target ($) 430.00 concerns among the investing community. Our analysis of Apple’s Market cap ($ mn) 293,623.4 platform history not only suggests that this gross margin erosion is 9/10 9/11E 9/12E 9/13E normal, but also that we have probably already seen the worst of it. Revenue ($ mn) New 65,225.1 91,807.0 110,772.6 122,389.7 Indeed, we believe Apple’s margins have already bottomed, and we expect Revenue ($ mn) Old-------- EPS ($) New 15.15 19.86 24.91 28.29 the company to resume its leverage-driven upside in coming quarters. In EPS ($) Old -------- P/E (X) 21.2 16.1 12.9 11.3 addition, we expect iPad and iPhone momentum to exceed expectations in EV/EBITDA (X) 10.2 10.8 8.6 7.5 2011, driving further upside. We expect Apple to ship 37.2 million iPad ROE (%) 35.3 32.2 29.5 25.5 units in CY11, which could potentially make Apple one of the largest 9/10 12/10E 3/11E 6/11E vendors in the global personal computing market (Tablets plus PCs). EPS ($) 4.64 5.41 4.30 4.39 Valuation Price performance chart Our $430 price target represents a P/E multiple of 20.0 times our above- 340 1,400 320 1,350 consensus calendar 2011 EPS estimate of $21.46. Our target multiple is 300 1,300 14.4% below the stock’s five-year average multiple of 23.4 times. 280 1,250 260 1,200 Key risks 240 1,150 220 1,100 The key risks to our target include: macro deterioration, increased platform 200 1,050 competition, potential legal and regulatory restrictions, and uncertain 180 1,000 management succession plans. Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Apple Inc. (L) S&P 500 (R) INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Americas Buy List Americas Conviction Buy List Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute 21.7 28.0 63.2 Rel. to S&P 500 8.9 12.1 45.0 Coverage View: Neutral Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 12/10/2010 close. Bill Shope, CFA The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with (212) 902-6834 [email protected] Goldman Sachs & Co. companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should Elizabeth Borbolla be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect (212) 357-4977 [email protected] Goldman Sachs & Co. the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as Cristina Colon, CMA only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC (212) 902-9913 [email protected] Goldman Sachs & Co. certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow Stephen Oshman the Reg AC certification, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. (917) 343-3128 [email protected] Goldman Sachs & Co. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research December 12, 2010 Apple Inc. (AAPL) Apple Inc.: Summary Financials Profit model ($ mn) 9/10 9/11E 9/12E 9/13E Balance sheet ($ mn) 9/10 9/11E 9/12E 9/13E Total revenue 65,225.1 91,807.0 110,772.6 122,389.7 Cash & equivalents 11,261.0 13,429.5 15,393.5 17,157.9 Cost of goods sold (39,541.0) (56,839.6) (66,785.7) (72,710.8) Accounts receivable 5,510.0 7,086.8 8,123.2 9,054.3 SG&A (5,517.0) (7,722.8) (9,264.9) (9,953.2) Inventory 1,051.0 1,320.0 1,495.9 1,631.9 R&D (1,782.0) (2,478.1) (2,966.8) (3,072.0) Other current assets 9,497.0 11,381.4 12,690.1 13,748.0 Other operating profit/(expense) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets 27,319.0 33,217.6 37,702.8 41,591.9 ESO expense -- -- -- -- Net PP&E 4,768.0 8,622.2 11,514.5 14,063.0 EBITDA 19,412.1 26,235.4 33,527.5 38,611.9 Net intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Depreciation & amortization (1,027.0) (1,468.9) (1,772.4) (1,958.2) Total investments 39,750.0 58,893.3 83,983.8 113,449.2 EBIT 18,385.1 24,766.5 31,755.1 36,653.7 Other long-term assets 3,346.0 4,130.0 5,097.8 6,292.3 Net interest income/(expense) 155.0 260.0 260.0 260.0 Total assets 75,183.0 104,863.2 138,298.9 175,396.4 Income/(loss) from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 12,015.0 14,755.3 16,721.8 18,241.1 Pretax profits 18,540.1 25,026.5 32,015.1 36,913.7 Short-term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Provision for taxes (4,527.0) (6,381.8) (8,163.9) (9,413.0) Other current liabilities 8,707.0 10,542.7 12,101.9 13,785.6 Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current liabilities 20,722.0 25,298.0 28,823.7 32,026.8 Net income pre-preferred dividends 14,013.1 18,644.7 23,851.3 27,500.7 Long-term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other long-term liabilities 6,670.0 11,529.4 15,988.2 20,782.0 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 14,013.1 18,644.7 23,851.3 27,500.7 Total long-term liabilities 6,670.0 11,529.4 15,988.2 20,782.0 Post tax exceptionals (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total liabilities 27,392.0 36,827.4 44,811.9 52,808.7 Net income (post-exceptionals) 14,013.0 18,644.7 23,851.3 27,500.7 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS (basic, pre-except) ($) 15.41 20.17 25.30 28.73 Total common equity 47,791.0 68,035.7 93,487.0 122,587.7 EPS (diluted, pre-except) ($) 15.15 19.86 24.91 28.29 Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS (basic, post-except) ($) 15.41 20.17 25.30 28.73 EPS (diluted, post-except) ($) 15.15 19.86 24.91 28.29 Total liabilities & equity 75,183.0 104,863.2 138,298.9 175,396.4 Common dividends paid -- -- -- -- DPS ($) 0.000.000.000.00 Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Additional financials 9/10 9/11E 9/12E 9/13E Net debt/equity (%) (23.6) (19.7) (16.5) (14.0) Interest cover (X) NMNMNMNM Growth & margins (%) 9/10 9/11E 9/12E 9/13E Inventory days 7.0 7.6 7.7 7.9 Sales growth 52.0 40.8 20.7 10.5 Receivable days 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.6 EBITDA growth 55.6 35.1 27.8 15.2 BVPS ($) 52.18 73.01 98.24 127.23 EBIT growth 56.6 34.7 28.2 15.4 Net income (pre-except) growth 70.2 33.1 27.9 15.3 ROA (%) 22.8 20.7 19.6 17.5 EPS growth 67.1 30.9 25.5 13.6 CROCI (%) 46.4 41.1 35.0 28.8 Gross margin 39.4 38.1 39.7 40.6 EBITDA margin 29.8 28.6 30.3 31.5 Dupont ROE (%) 29.3 27.4 25.5 22.4 EBIT margin 28.2 27.0 28.7 29.9 Margin (%) 21.5 20.3 21.5 22.5 Turnover (X) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 Cash flow statement ($ mn) 9/10 9/11E 9/12E 9/13E Leverage (X) 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 Net income 14,013.1 18,644.7 23,851.3 27,500.7 D&A add-back (incl.
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