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Prepublication Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies ADVANCE COPY NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE BEFORE 1:00 PM EST FRIDAY, June 15, 2012 CITE AS A REPORT OF THE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL Prepublication Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies Committee on Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies Committee on Earth Resources Committee on Geological and Geotechnical Engineering Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Division on Earth and Life Studies Prepublication version – Subject to revision Prepublicationi THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by DE-PI0000010, TO# 10/DE-DT0001995 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data or International Standard Book Number 0-309-0XXXX-X Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 97-XXXXX [Availability from program office as desired.] Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/. Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Prepublication version – Subject to revision ii The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Prepublication version – Subject to revision iii COMMITTEE ON INDUCED SEISMICITY POTENTIAL IN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Chair, Colorado School of Mines, Golden DONALD D. CLARKE, Geological Consultant, Long Beach, California EMMANUEL DETOURNAY, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, and CSIRO (Earth Science and Resource Engineering), Australia JAMES H. DIETERICH, University of California, Riverside DAVID K. DILLON, David K. Dillon PE, LLC, Centennial, Colorado SIDNEY J. GREEN, University of Utah, Salt Lake City ROBERT M. HABIGER, Spectraseis, Denver, Colorado ROBIN K. MCGUIRE, Engineering Consultant, Boulder, Colorado JAMES K. MITCHELL, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and University, Blacksburg JULIE E. SHEMETA, MEQ Geo, Inc., Highlands Ranch, Colorado JOHN L. (BILL) SMITH, Geothermal Consultant, Santa Rosa, California National Research Council Staff ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Study Director JASON ORTEGO, Research Associate COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate Prepublication version – Subject to revision iv BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES CORALE L. BRIERLEY, Chair, Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Highlands Ranch, Colorado KEITH C. CLARKE, University of California, Santa Barbara DAVID J. COWEN, University of South Carolina, Columbia WILLIAM E. DIETRICH, University of California, Berkeley ROGER M. DOWNS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia RUSSELL J. HEMLEY, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C. MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR., Arizona State University, Tempe ROBERT B. MCMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (Retired), Ocean Park, Washington HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JOAQUIN RUIZ, University of Arizona, Tucson PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego REGINAL SPILLER, Frontera Resources Corporation (Retired), Houston, Texas RUSSELL E. STANDS-OVER-BULL, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Billings, Montana TERRY C. WALLACE, JR., Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico National Research Council Staff ANTHONY R. DE SOUZA, Director (until April 2012) ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Director (from April 2012) DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant CHANDA IJAMES, Program Assistant Prepublication version – Subject to revision v Prepublication version – Subject to revision vi PREFACE Since the 1920s we have recognized that pumping fluids into or out of the Earth has the potential to cause seismic events that can be felt. Seismic events in Basel, Switzerland between 2006 and 2008 were felt by local residents and were related to geothermal energy development. A string of small seismic events in Arkansas, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas in the past several years has been related to waste water disposal associated with oil and gas production. These seismic events have brought the issue of induced (human-caused) seismicity firmly into public view. Ensuring a reliable 21st century energy supply for the United States presents seminal economic, environmental, and social challenges. A variety of conventional and unconventional energy technologies are being developed to meet this challenge including new technologies associated with shale gas production and geothermal energy. Energy technologies may also produce wastes. “Waste” water is often produced during oil and gas drilling and is generally managed either by disposal through pumping the fluids back into the subsurface or by storage, treatment, or reuse. Carbon dioxide may also be generated as a byproduct of energy production and may be captured and similarly pumped into the ground for storage. Anticipating public concern about the potential for induced seismicity related to energy development, Senator Bingaman requested that the Department of Energy conduct study of this issue through the National Research Council. The study was designed to examine the scale, scope, and consequences of seismicity induced during the injection of fluids related to energy production; to identify gaps in knowledge and research needed to advance the understanding of induced seismicity; to identify gaps in induced seismic hazard assessment methodologies and the research needed to close those gaps; and to assess options for interim steps toward best practices with regard to energy development and induced seismicity potential. The committee (Appendix A) investigated the history and potential for induced seismicity associated with geothermal energy development; with
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