Agar on Life-Extension and the Fear of Death
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Effective Altruism William Macaskill and Theron Pummer
1 Effective Altruism William MacAskill and Theron Pummer Climate change is on course to cause millions of deaths and cost the world economy trillions of dollars. Nearly a billion people live in extreme poverty, millions of them dying each year of easily preventable diseases. Just a small fraction of the thousands of nuclear weapons on hair‐trigger alert could easily bring about global catastrophe. New technologies like synthetic biology and artificial intelligence bring unprece dented risks. Meanwhile, year after year billions and billions of factory‐farmed ani mals live and die in misery. Given the number of severe problems facing the world today, and the resources required to solve them, we may feel at a loss as to where to even begin. The good news is that we can improve things with the right use of money, time, talent, and effort. These resources can bring about a great deal of improvement, or very little, depending on how they are allocated. The effective altruism movement consists of a growing global community of peo ple who use reason and evidence to assess how to do as much good as possible, and who take action on this basis. Launched in 2011, the movement now has thousands of members, as well as influence over billions of dollars. The movement has substan tially increased awareness of the fact that some altruistic activities are much more cost‐effective than others, in the sense that they do much more good than others per unit of resource expended. According to the nonprofit organization GiveWell, it costs around $3,500 to prevent someone from dying of malaria by distributing bed nets. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions
Future of Humanity Institute – Technical Report #2015-1 Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions Owen Cotton-Barratt* & Toby Ord† We look at the strengths and weaknesses of two existing definitions of existential risk, and suggest a new definition based on expected value. This leads to a parallel concept: ‘existential hope’, the chance of something extremely good happening. An existential risk is a chance of a terrible event occurring, such as an asteroid striking the earth and wiping out intelligent life – we could call such events existential catastrophes. In order to understand what should be thought of as an existential risk, it is necessary to understand what should be thought of as an existential catastrophe. This is harder than it first seems to pin down. 1. The simple definition One fairly crisp approach is to draw the line at extinction: Definition (i): An existential catastrophe is an event which causes the end of existence of our descendants. This has the virtue that it is a natural division and is easy to understand. And we certainly want to include all extinction events. But perhaps it doesn’t cast a wide enough net. Example A: A totalitarian regime takes control of earth. It uses mass surveillance to prevent any rebellion, and there is no chance for escape. This regime persists for thousands of years, eventually collapsing when a supervolcano throws up enough ash that agriculture is prevented for decades, and no humans survive. In Example A, clearly the eruption was bad, but the worst of the damage was done earlier. After the totalitarian regime was locked in, it was only a matter of time until something or other finished things off. -
Longevity Extension from a Socioeconomic Perspective: Plausibility, Misconceptions, and Potential Outcomes
Sound Decisions: An Undergraduate Bioethics Journal Volume 2 Issue 1 Article 4 2016-12-15 Longevity Extension from a Socioeconomic Perspective: Plausibility, Misconceptions, and Potential Outcomes Eric Ralph University of Puget Sound Follow this and additional works at: https://soundideas.pugetsound.edu/sounddecisions Part of the Bioethics and Medical Ethics Commons Recommended Citation Ralph, Eric (2016) "Longevity Extension from a Socioeconomic Perspective: Plausibility, Misconceptions, and Potential Outcomes," Sound Decisions: An Undergraduate Bioethics Journal: Vol. 2 : Iss. 1 , Article 4. Available at: https://soundideas.pugetsound.edu/sounddecisions/vol2/iss1/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Publications at Sound Ideas. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sound Decisions: An Undergraduate Bioethics Journal by an authorized editor of Sound Ideas. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Ralph: Longevity Extension Longevity Extension from a Socioeconomic Perspective: Plausibility, Misconceptions, and Potential Outcomes Eric Ralph Introduction In the last several decades, a significant amount of progress has been made in pursuits to better understand the process of aging and subsequently gain some level of control over it. Current theories of aging are admittedly lacking, but this has not prevented biogerontologists from drastically increasing the longevity of yeast, drosophilae, worms, and mice (Vaiserman, Moskalev, & Pasyukova 2015; Tosato, Zamboni et al. 2007; Riera & Dillin 2015). Wide-ranging successes with gene therapy and increased comprehension of the genetic components of aging have also recently culminated in numerous successes in extending the longevity of animals and the first human trial of a gene therapy to extend life through telomerase manipulation is already underway, albeit on a small scale (Mendell et al. -
Worms Under Stress: Unravelling Genetic Complex Traits Through Perturbation
Worms under stress: unravelling genetic complex traits through perturbation Miriam Rodriguez Sanchez Thesis committee Promotor Prof. Dr Jaap Bakker Professor of Nematology Wageningen University Co-promotor Dr Jan E. Kammenga Associate professor, Laboratory of Nematology Wageningen University Other members Prof. Dr Bas J. Zwaan, Wageningen University Prof. Dr Hendrik.C. Korswagen, Hubrecht Institute, Utrecht Prof. Dr Ellen Nollen, European Research Institute for the Biology of Ageing (ERIBA), Groningen Dr Gino B. Poulin, University of Manchester, United Kingdom This research was conducted under the auspices of the Graduate School of Production Ecology and Resource Conservation (PE&RC). Worms under stress: unravelling genetic complex traits through perturbation Miriam Rodriguez Sanchez Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor at Wageningen University by the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. dr. M.J. Kropff, in the presence of the Thesis Committee appointed by the Academic Board to be defended in public on Friday 14 March 2014 at 11 a.m. in the Aula. Miriam Rodriguez Sanchez Worms under stress: unravelling genetic complex traits through perturbation 130 pages PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL (2014) With references, with summaries in Dutch and English ISBN: 978-94-6173-851-6 A mi padre CONTENTS Contents Chapter 1 General Introduction ........................................................................... 3 Chapter 2 C. elegans stress response and its relevance to complex human disease and aging ................................................. 15 Chapter 3 Uncovering genotype specific variation of Wnt signaling in C. elegans .................................................................... 33 Chapter 4 Genetic variation for stress-response hormesis in C. elegans life span ......................................................................... 55 Chapter 5 Molecular confirmation of trans-regulatory eQTL in C. -
Whether and Where to Give1 (Forthcoming in Philosophy and Public Affairs)
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by St Andrews Research Repository 1 Whether and Where to Give1 (Forthcoming in Philosophy and Public Affairs) Theron Pummer University of St Andrews 1. The Ethics of Giving and Effective Altruism The ethics of giving has traditionally focused on whether, and how much, to give to charities helping people in extreme poverty.2 In more recent years, the discussion has increasingly focused on where to give, spurred by an appreciation of the substantial differences in cost- effectiveness between charities. According to a commonly cited example, $40,000 can be used either to help 1 blind person by training a seeing-eye dog in the United States or to help 2,000 blind people by providing surgeries reversing the effects of trachoma in Africa.3 Effective altruists recommend that we give large sums to charity, but by far their more central message is that we give effectively, i.e., to whatever charities would do the most good per dollar donated.4 In this paper, I’ll assume that it’s not wrong not to give bigger, but will explore to what extent it may well nonetheless be wrong not to give better. The main claim I’ll argue for here is that in many cases it would be wrong of you to give a sum of money to charities that do less good than others you could have given to instead, even if 1 I am extremely grateful to Derek Parfit, Roger Crisp, Jeff McMahan, and Peter Singer for extremely helpful feedback and encouragement. -
Why Maximize Expected Choice-Worthiness?1 WILLIAM MACASKILL and TOBY ORD University of Oxford
NOUSˆ 00:00 (2018) 1–27 doi: 10.1111/nous.12264 Why Maximize Expected Choice-Worthiness?1 WILLIAM MACASKILL AND TOBY ORD University of Oxford This paper argues in favor of a particular account of decision-making under nor- mative uncertainty: that, when it is possible to do so, one should maximize expected choice-worthiness. Though this position has been often suggested in the literature and is often taken to be the ‘default’ view, it has so far received little in the way of positive argument in its favor. After dealing with some preliminaries and giving the basic motivation for taking normative uncertainty into account in our decision- making, we consider and provide new arguments against two rival accounts that have been offered—the accounts that we call ‘My Favorite Theory’ and ‘My Fa- vorite Option’. We then give a novel argument for comparativism—the view that, under normative uncertainty, one should take into account both probabilities of different theories and magnitudes of choice-worthiness. Finally, we further argue in favor of maximizing expected choice-worthiness and consider and respond to five objections. Introduction Normative uncertainty is a fact of life. Suppose that Michael has £20 to spend. With that money, he could eat out at a nice restaurant. Alternatively, he could eat at home and pay for four long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets that would protect eight children against malaria. Let’s suppose that Michael knows all the morally relevant empirical facts about what that £20 could do. Even so, it might be that he still doesn’t know whether he’s obligated to donate that money or whether it’s permissible for him to pay for the meal out, because he just doesn’t know how strong his moral obligations to distant strangers are. -
The Definition of Effective Altruism
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 19/08/19, SPi 1 The Definition of Effective Altruism William MacAskill There are many problems in the world today. Over 750 million people live on less than $1.90 per day (at purchasing power parity).1 Around 6 million children die each year of easily preventable causes such as malaria, diarrhea, or pneumonia.2 Climate change is set to wreak environmental havoc and cost the economy tril- lions of dollars.3 A third of women worldwide have suffered from sexual or other physical violence in their lives.4 More than 3,000 nuclear warheads are in high-alert ready-to-launch status around the globe.5 Bacteria are becoming antibiotic- resistant.6 Partisanship is increasing, and democracy may be in decline.7 Given that the world has so many problems, and that these problems are so severe, surely we have a responsibility to do something about them. But what? There are countless problems that we could be addressing, and many different ways of addressing each of those problems. Moreover, our resources are scarce, so as individuals and even as a globe we can’t solve all these problems at once. So we must make decisions about how to allocate the resources we have. But on what basis should we make such decisions? The effective altruism movement has pioneered one approach. Those in this movement try to figure out, of all the different uses of our resources, which uses will do the most good, impartially considered. This movement is gathering con- siderable steam. There are now thousands of people around the world who have chosen -
Transcript(PDF 68.39
TRANSCRIPT STANDING COMMITTEE ON LEGAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES Inquiry into end-of-life choices Melbourne — 19 August 2015 Members Mr Edward O’Donohue — Chair Mr Daniel Mulino Ms Nina Springle — Deputy Chair Ms Fiona Patten Ms Margaret Fitzherbert Mrs Inga Peulich Mr Cesar Melhem Ms Jaclyn Symes Participating Members Mr Gordon Rich-Phillips Staff Secretary: Ms Lilian Topic Research assistants: Ms Annemarie Burt and Ms Kim Martinow Witness Professor Julian Savulescu. 19 August 2015 Standing Committee on Legal and Social Issues 1 The CHAIR — I declare open the Legislative Council’s legal and social issues committee public hearing in relation to the inquiry into end-of-life choices. I welcome Professor Julian Savulescu, the Uehiro chair in practical ethics; director, Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics; director, Oxford Centre for Neuroethics; Sir Louis Matheson distinguished visiting professor, Monash University; doctoris honoris causa, University of Bucharest. Professor, we are very pleased you could join us tonight. Before we start I caution that all evidence taken at this hearing is protected by parliamentary privilege as provided by the Constitution Act 1975 and further subject to the provisions of the Legislative Council’s standing orders. Therefore you are protected against any action for what you say here today, but any comments made outside the hearing are not afforded such privilege. Today’s evidence is being recorded. You will be provided with proof versions of the transcript within the next week. Transcripts will ultimately be made public and posted on the committee’s website. We have allowed an hour for our session tonight, so I invite you to make some opening remarks and an opening statement, and thereafter the committee will have questions. -
To Be, Or Not to Be? the Role of the Unconscious in Transgender Transitioning: Identity, Autonomy and Well-Being
Extended essay To be, or not to be? The role of the unconscious in J Med Ethics: first published as 10.1136/medethics-2021-107397 on 30 July 2021. Downloaded from transgender transitioning: identity, autonomy and well- being Alessandra Lemma,1 Julian Savulescu 2,3,4 1Visiting Professor, ABSTRACT yet gone through puberty are not able to properly Psychoanalysis Unit, University The exponential rise in transgender self- identification understand the ‘lifelong medical, psychological and College London, London, UK 2 emotional implications’ of taking puberty blockers Faculty of Philosophy, invites consideration of what constitutes an ethical University of Oxford, Oxford, UK response to transgender individuals’ claims about how and cross- sex hormones; and second, the experi- 3Biomedical Ethics Research best to promote their well- being. In this paper, we mental nature of puberty blockers specifically, with Group, Murdoch Childrens argue that ’accepting’ a claim to medical transitioning potentially significant unknown side effects and Research Institute, Parkville, 3 in order to promote well- being would be in the person’s little evidence of long-term benefits. In practice, Victoria, Australia 4Melbourne Law School, best interests iff at the point of request the individual this ruling now forbids the prescription of puberty University of Melbourne, is correct in their self- diagnosis as transgender (i.e., suppressants without court order. This particular Melbourne, Victoria, Australia the distress felt to reside in the body does not result ruling is in the process of being challenged by the from another psychological and/or societal problem) GID. A more recent 2021 court order allows for Correspondence to such that the medical interventions they are seeking the prescription as long as there is parental consent. -
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Do Actuaries Believe in Longevity Deceleration? Edouard Debonneuil, Stéphane Loisel, Frédéric Planchet
Do actuaries believe in longevity deceleration? Edouard Debonneuil, Stéphane Loisel, Frédéric Planchet To cite this version: Edouard Debonneuil, Stéphane Loisel, Frédéric Planchet. Do actuaries believe in longevity decelera- tion?. 2015. hal-01219270v2 HAL Id: hal-01219270 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01219270v2 Preprint submitted on 5 Aug 2017 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. DO ACTUARIES BELIEVE IN LONGEVITY DECELERATION? Edouard Debonneuil Stéphane Loisel Frédéric Planchet* Univ Lyon - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, ISFA, Laboratoire SAF EA2429, F-69366, Lyon, France Prim’Act, 42 avenue de la Grande Armée, 75017 Paris, France ActuRx Version 2.0 du 05/08/2017 ABSTRACT As more and more people believe that significant life extensions may come soon, should commonly used future mortality assumptions be considered prudent? We find here that commonly used actuarial tables for annuitants – as well as the Lee-Carter model – do not extrapolate life expectancy at the same rate for future years as for past years; instead they produce some longevity deceleration. This is typically because their mortality improvements decrease after a certain age, and those age-specific improvements are constant over time.