Risks of Space Colonization
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Effective Altruism William Macaskill and Theron Pummer
1 Effective Altruism William MacAskill and Theron Pummer Climate change is on course to cause millions of deaths and cost the world economy trillions of dollars. Nearly a billion people live in extreme poverty, millions of them dying each year of easily preventable diseases. Just a small fraction of the thousands of nuclear weapons on hair‐trigger alert could easily bring about global catastrophe. New technologies like synthetic biology and artificial intelligence bring unprece dented risks. Meanwhile, year after year billions and billions of factory‐farmed ani mals live and die in misery. Given the number of severe problems facing the world today, and the resources required to solve them, we may feel at a loss as to where to even begin. The good news is that we can improve things with the right use of money, time, talent, and effort. These resources can bring about a great deal of improvement, or very little, depending on how they are allocated. The effective altruism movement consists of a growing global community of peo ple who use reason and evidence to assess how to do as much good as possible, and who take action on this basis. Launched in 2011, the movement now has thousands of members, as well as influence over billions of dollars. The movement has substan tially increased awareness of the fact that some altruistic activities are much more cost‐effective than others, in the sense that they do much more good than others per unit of resource expended. According to the nonprofit organization GiveWell, it costs around $3,500 to prevent someone from dying of malaria by distributing bed nets. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions
Future of Humanity Institute – Technical Report #2015-1 Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions Owen Cotton-Barratt* & Toby Ord† We look at the strengths and weaknesses of two existing definitions of existential risk, and suggest a new definition based on expected value. This leads to a parallel concept: ‘existential hope’, the chance of something extremely good happening. An existential risk is a chance of a terrible event occurring, such as an asteroid striking the earth and wiping out intelligent life – we could call such events existential catastrophes. In order to understand what should be thought of as an existential risk, it is necessary to understand what should be thought of as an existential catastrophe. This is harder than it first seems to pin down. 1. The simple definition One fairly crisp approach is to draw the line at extinction: Definition (i): An existential catastrophe is an event which causes the end of existence of our descendants. This has the virtue that it is a natural division and is easy to understand. And we certainly want to include all extinction events. But perhaps it doesn’t cast a wide enough net. Example A: A totalitarian regime takes control of earth. It uses mass surveillance to prevent any rebellion, and there is no chance for escape. This regime persists for thousands of years, eventually collapsing when a supervolcano throws up enough ash that agriculture is prevented for decades, and no humans survive. In Example A, clearly the eruption was bad, but the worst of the damage was done earlier. After the totalitarian regime was locked in, it was only a matter of time until something or other finished things off. -
Asteroid Impact, Not Volcanism, Caused the End-Cretaceous Dinosaur Extinction
Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction Alfio Alessandro Chiarenzaa,b,1,2, Alexander Farnsworthc,1, Philip D. Mannionb, Daniel J. Luntc, Paul J. Valdesc, Joanna V. Morgana, and Peter A. Allisona aDepartment of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington, SW7 2AZ London, United Kingdom; bDepartment of Earth Sciences, University College London, WC1E 6BT London, United Kingdom; and cSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1TH Bristol, United Kingdom Edited by Nils Chr. Stenseth, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway, and approved May 21, 2020 (received for review April 1, 2020) The Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, 66 Ma, included the (17). However, the timing and size of each eruptive event are demise of non-avian dinosaurs. Intense debate has focused on the highly contentious in relation to the mass extinction event (8–10). relative roles of Deccan volcanism and the Chicxulub asteroid im- An asteroid, ∼10 km in diameter, impacted at Chicxulub, in pact as kill mechanisms for this event. Here, we combine fossil- the present-day Gulf of Mexico, 66 Ma (4, 18, 19), leaving a crater occurrence data with paleoclimate and habitat suitability models ∼180 to 200 km in diameter (Fig. 1A). This impactor struck car- to evaluate dinosaur habitability in the wake of various asteroid bonate and sulfate-rich sediments, leading to the ejection and impact and Deccan volcanism scenarios. Asteroid impact models global dispersal of large quantities of dust, ash, sulfur, and other generate a prolonged cold winter that suppresses potential global aerosols into the atmosphere (4, 18–20). These atmospheric dinosaur habitats. -
Introduction to Astronomy from Darkness to Blazing Glory
Introduction to Astronomy From Darkness to Blazing Glory Published by JAS Educational Publications Copyright Pending 2010 JAS Educational Publications All rights reserved. Including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form. Second Edition Author: Jeffrey Wright Scott Photographs and Diagrams: Credit NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USGS, NOAA, Aames Research Center JAS Educational Publications 2601 Oakdale Road, H2 P.O. Box 197 Modesto California 95355 1-888-586-6252 Website: http://.Introastro.com Printing by Minuteman Press, Berkley, California ISBN 978-0-9827200-0-4 1 Introduction to Astronomy From Darkness to Blazing Glory The moon Titan is in the forefront with the moon Tethys behind it. These are two of many of Saturn’s moons Credit: Cassini Imaging Team, ISS, JPL, ESA, NASA 2 Introduction to Astronomy Contents in Brief Chapter 1: Astronomy Basics: Pages 1 – 6 Workbook Pages 1 - 2 Chapter 2: Time: Pages 7 - 10 Workbook Pages 3 - 4 Chapter 3: Solar System Overview: Pages 11 - 14 Workbook Pages 5 - 8 Chapter 4: Our Sun: Pages 15 - 20 Workbook Pages 9 - 16 Chapter 5: The Terrestrial Planets: Page 21 - 39 Workbook Pages 17 - 36 Mercury: Pages 22 - 23 Venus: Pages 24 - 25 Earth: Pages 25 - 34 Mars: Pages 34 - 39 Chapter 6: Outer, Dwarf and Exoplanets Pages: 41-54 Workbook Pages 37 - 48 Jupiter: Pages 41 - 42 Saturn: Pages 42 - 44 Uranus: Pages 44 - 45 Neptune: Pages 45 - 46 Dwarf Planets, Plutoids and Exoplanets: Pages 47 -54 3 Chapter 7: The Moons: Pages: 55 - 66 Workbook Pages 49 - 56 Chapter 8: Rocks and Ice: -
Evidence-Based Policy Cause Area Report
Evidence-Based Policy Cause Area Report AUTHOR: 11/18 MARINELLA CAPRIATI, DPHIL 1 — Founders Pledge Animal Welfare Executive Summary By supporting increased use of evidence in the governments of low- and middle-income countries, donors can dramatically increase their impact on the lives of people living in poverty. This report explores how focusing on evidence-based policy provides an opportunity for leverage, and presents the most promising organisation we identified in this area. A high-risk/high-return opportunity for leverage In the 2013 report ‘The State of the Poor’, the World Bank reported that, as of 2010, roughly 83% of people in extreme poverty lived in countries classified as ‘lower-middle income’ or below. By far the most resources spent on tackling poverty come from local governments. American think tank the Brookings Institution found that, in 2011, $2.3 trillion of the $2.8 trillion spent on financing development came from domestic government revenues in the countries affected. There are often large differences in the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of social programs— the amount of good done per dollar spent can vary significantly across programs. Employing evidence allows us to identify the most cost-effective social programs. This is useful information for donors choosing which charity to support, but also for governments choosing which programs to implement, and how. This suggests that employing philanthropic funding to improve the effectiveness of policymaking in low- and middle-income countries is likely to constitute an exceptional opportunity for leverage: by supporting the production and use of evidence in low- and middle-income countries, donors can potentially enable policy makers to implement more effective policies, thereby reaching many more people than direct interventions. -
Could a Nearby Supernova Explosion Have Caused a Mass Extinction? JOHN ELLIS* and DAVID N
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA Vol. 92, pp. 235-238, January 1995 Astronomy Could a nearby supernova explosion have caused a mass extinction? JOHN ELLIS* AND DAVID N. SCHRAMMtt *Theoretical Physics Division, European Organization for Nuclear Research, CH-1211, Geneva 23, Switzerland; tDepartment of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637; and *National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Fermilab Astrophysics Center, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, IL 60510 Contributed by David N. Schramm, September 6, 1994 ABSTRACT We examine the possibility that a nearby the solar constant, supernova explosions, and meteorite or supernova explosion could have caused one or more of the comet impacts that could be due to perturbations of the Oort mass extinctions identified by paleontologists. We discuss the cloud. The first of these has little experimental support. possible rate of such events in the light of the recent suggested Nemesis (4), a conjectured binary companion of the Sun, identification of Geminga as a supernova remnant less than seems to have been excluded as a mechanism for the third,§ 100 parsec (pc) away and the discovery ofa millisecond pulsar although other possibilities such as passage of the solar system about 150 pc away and observations of SN 1987A. The fluxes through the galactic plane may still be tenable. The supernova of y-radiation and charged cosmic rays on the Earth are mechanism (6, 7) has attracted less research interest than some estimated, and their effects on the Earth's ozone layer are of the others, perhaps because there has not been a recent discussed. -
2018 ▶ Do Not Enter Social Security Numbers on This Form As It May Be Made Public
OMB No. 1545-0047 Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax Under section 501(c), 527, or 4947(a)(1) of the Internal Revenue Code (except private foundations) 2018 ▶ Do not enter social security numbers on this form as it may be made public. Department of the Treasury Open to Public Internal Revenue Service ▶ Go to www.irs.gov/Form990 for instructions and the latest information. Inspection A For the 2018 calendar year, or tax year beginning01/01 , 2018, and ending12/31 , 20 18 B Check if applicable: C Name of organization CENTRE FOR EFFECTIVE ALTRUISM USA INC D Employer identification number Address change Doing business as 47-1988398 Name change Number and street (or P.O. box if mail is not delivered to street address) Room/suite E Telephone number Initial return 2054 UNIVERSITY AVE SUITE 300 510-725-1395 Final return/terminated City or town, state or province, country, and ZIP or foreign postal code Amended return BERKELEY, CA, 94704 G Gross receipts $ 10,524,715 Application pending F Name and address of principal officer: Amy Labenz H(a) Is this a group return for subordinates? Yes ✔ No 2054 UNIVERSITY AVE SUITE 300, BERKELEY, CA 94704 H(b) Are all subordinates included? Yes No I Tax-exempt status: ✔ 501(c)(3) 501(c) ( ) ◀ (insert no.) 4947(a)(1) or 527 If “No,” attach a list. (see instructions) J Website: ▶ www.centerforeffectivealtruism.org H(c) Group exemption number ▶ K Form of organization: ✔ Corporation Trust Association Other ▶ L Year of formation: 2013 M State of legal domicile: NJ Part I Summary 1 Briefly describe the organization’s mission or most significant activities: Effective altruism is a growing social movement founded on the desire to make the world as good a place as it can be, the use of evidence and reason to find out how to do so, and the audacity to actually try. -
The Romantic Economist
This page intentionally left blank THE ROMANTIC ECONOMIST Since economies are dynamic processes driven by creativity, social norms and emotions, as well as rational calculation, why do econo- mists largely study them through the prism of static equilibrium models and narrow rationalistic assumptions? Economic activity is as much a function of imagination and social sentiments as of the rational optimisation of given preferences and goods. Richard Bronk argues that economists can best model and explain these creative and social aspects of markets by using new structuring assumptions and metaphors derived from the poetry and philosophy of the Romantics. By bridging the divide between literature and science, and between Romanticism and narrow forms of rationalism, economists can access grounding assumptions, models and research methods suitable for comprehending the creativity and social dimensions of economic activity. This is a guide to how economists and other social scientists can broaden their analytical repertoire to encompass the vital role of sentiments, language and imagination. Educated at Merton College, Oxford, Richard Bronk gained a first class degree in Classics and Philosophy. He spent the first seventeen years of his career working in the City of London, where he acquired a wide expertise in international economics, business and politics. His first book, Progress and the Invisible Hand (1998) was well received critically, and anticipated millennial angst about the increasingly strained relationship between economic growth and progress in wel- fare. Having returned to academic life in 2000, Bronk is now a writer and part-time academic. richard bronk is currently a Visiting Fellow in the European Institute at the London School of Economics and Political Science. -
Arxiv:1905.02734V1 [Astro-Ph.GA] 7 May 2019 As Part of This Work, We Infer the Distances, Reddenings and Types of 799 Million Stars
Draft version May 9, 2019 Typeset using LATEX preprint style in AASTeX62 A 3D Dust Map Based on Gaia, Pan-STARRS 1 and 2MASS Gregory M. Green,1 Edward Schlafly,2, 3 Catherine Zucker,4 Joshua S. Speagle,4 and Douglas Finkbeiner4 1Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University 452 Lomita Mall, Stanford, CA 94305-4060, USA 2Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory One Cyclotron Road Berkeley, CA 94720, USA 3Hubble Fellow 4Harvard Astronomy, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics 60 Garden St., Cambridge, MA 02138, USA (Received ?; Revised ?; Accepted ?) Submitted to ? ABSTRACT We present a new three-dimensional map of dust reddening, based on Gaia paral- laxes and stellar photometry from Pan-STARRS 1 and 2MASS. This map covers the sky north of a declination of 30◦, out to a distance of several kiloparsecs. This new − map contains three major improvements over our previous work. First, the inclusion of Gaia parallaxes dramatically improves distance estimates to nearby stars. Second, we incorporate a spatial prior that correlates the dust density across nearby sightlines. This produces a smoother map, with more isotropic clouds and smaller distance uncer- tainties, particularly to clouds within the nearest kiloparsec. Third, we infer the dust density with a distance resolution that is four times finer than in our previous work, to accommodate the improvements in signal-to-noise enabled by the other improvements. arXiv:1905.02734v1 [astro-ph.GA] 7 May 2019 As part of this work, we infer the distances, reddenings and types of 799 million stars. We obtain typical reddening uncertainties that are 30% smaller than those reported in ∼ the Gaia DR2 catalog, reflecting the greater number of photometric passbands that en- ter into our analysis. -
SFSC Search Down to 4
C M Y K www.newssun.com EWS UN NHighlands County’s Hometown-S Newspaper Since 1927 Rivalry rout Deadly wreck in Polk Harris leads Lake 20-year-old woman from Lake Placid to shutout of AP Placid killed in Polk crash SPORTS, B1 PAGE A2 PAGE B14 Friday-Saturday, March 22-23, 2013 www.newssun.com Volume 94/Number 35 | 50 cents Forecast Fire destroys Partly sunny and portable at Fred pleasant High Low Wild Elementary Fire alarms “Myself, Mr. (Wally) 81 62 Cox and other administra- Complete Forecast went off at 2:40 tors were all called about PAGE A14 a.m. Wednesday 3 a.m.,” Waldron said Wednesday morning. Online By SAMANTHA GHOLAR Upon Waldron’s arrival, [email protected] the Sebring Fire SEBRING — Department along with Investigations into a fire DeSoto City Fire early Wednesday morning Department, West Sebring on the Fred Wild Volunteer Fire Department Question: Do you Elementary School cam- and Sebring Police pus are under way. Department were all on think the U.S. govern- The school’s fire alarms the scene. ment would ever News-Sun photo by KATARA SIMMONS Rhoda Ross reads to youngsters Linda Saraniti (from left), Chyanne Carroll and Camdon began going off at approx- State Fire Marshal seize money from pri- Carroll on Wednesday afternoon at the Lake Placid Public Library. Ross was reading from imately 2:40 a.m. and con- investigator Raymond vate bank accounts a children’s book she wrote and illustrated called ‘A Wildflower for all Seasons.’ tinued until about 3 a.m., Miles Davis was on the like is being consid- according to FWE scene for a large part of ered in Cyprus? Principal Laura Waldron. -
Venus in Two Acts Saidiya Hartman
Venus in Two Acts Saidiya Hartman Small Axe, Number 26 (Volume 12, Number 2), June 2008, pp. 1-14 (Article) Published by Duke University Press For additional information about this article https://muse.jhu.edu/article/241115 Access provided by University Of Maryland @ College Park (13 Mar 2017 20:04 GMT) Venus in Two Acts Saidiya Hartman ABSTR A CT : This essay examines the ubiquitous presence of Venus in the archive of Atlantic slavery and wrestles with the impossibility of discovering anything about her that hasn’t already been stated. As an emblematic figure of the enslaved woman in the Atlantic world, Venus makes plain the convergence of terror and pleasure in the libidinal economy of slavery and, as well, the intimacy of history with the scandal and excess of literature. In writing at the limit of the unspeak- able and the unknown, the essay mimes the violence of the archive and attempts to redress it by describing as fully as possible the conditions that determine the appearance of Venus and that dictate her silence. In this incarnation, she appears in the archive of slavery as a dead girl named in a legal indict- ment against a slave ship captain tried for the murder of two Negro girls. But we could have as easily encountered her in a ship’s ledger in the tally of debits; or in an overseer’s journal—“last night I laid with Dido on the ground”; or as an amorous bed-fellow with a purse so elastic “that it will contain the largest thing any gentleman can present her with” in Harris’s List of Covent- Garden Ladies; or as the paramour in the narrative of a mercenary soldier in Surinam; or as a brothel owner in a traveler’s account of the prostitutes of Barbados; or as a minor character in a nineteenth-century pornographic novel.1 Variously named Harriot, Phibba, Sara, Joanna, Rachel, Linda, and Sally, she is found everywhere in the Atlantic world.