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2019 Abbas Fadhil Mahmood Alkateshi All Rights ©2019 ABBAS FADHIL MAHMOOD ALKATESHI ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ELECTORAL MOBILIZATION AND VOTER TURNOUT IN POST- AUTHORITARIAN COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN IRAQ (2005-2018) By ABBAS FADHIL MAHMOOD ALKATESHI A dissertation submitted to the School of Graduate Studies Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Program in Political Science Written under the direction of Eric M. Davis and approved by ___________________________ ____________________________ ____________________________ ____________________________ New Brunswick, New Jersey October, 2019 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION ELECTORAL MOBILIZATION AND VOTER TURNOUT IN POST- AUTHORITARIAN COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN IRAQ (2005-2018) By ABBAS FADHIL MAHMOOD ALKATESHI DISSERTATION DIRECTOR ERIC M. DAVIS This study investigates the relationship between voter mobilization and turnout in post- authoritarian countries by tackling the puzzle that addresses the causes and consequences of the decline in voter turnout in the Iraqi parliamentary elections since the first founding national elections in October 2005. It attempts to address the question of why voter turnout has declined dramatically from 76.6% in the elections of 2005 to 44.5% in the national elections of 2018 in Iraq. After 13 years of regime changes and four national elections cycles, voter turnout fell by 35.1 percentage points. This identifies two possible causal mechanisms behind this declining trend: first, the influential role of the formal institutions such as the role of electoral law, party system and second, the structure and performance of the elections administration. We argue that the decline of public trust in these formal institutions affects to great extent the level of voter turnout. The second causal mechanism is the impact of informal institutions on voter turnout. In this regard, we argue that the role of religious leaders, ethnicity, religion and electoral violence in mobilizing Iraqi votes can be considered responsible for the dramatic decline in voter turnout in the elections of 2018. ii In terms of formal institutions, the purpose of the current study is to investigate the effects of electoral system, elections management body and political parties on voter turnout. It argues that the high turnout in the first three elections (79.6%, 62.39% and 61.76%) respectively was because of high mobilization efforts of religious leaders and the impact of electoral violence. It is also caused by intensified polarization around sectarian and ethnic identity. While these efforts have contributed to increasing the turnout in the early three elections, it is also a major contributory factor in dropping the voter turnout to (44.5%) in the fourth national elections in May 2018. The individual data that we use in this dissertation are drawn from merging four public opinion surveys. These surveys are the second wave of Arab barometer (2010-2011), the third wave of Arab barometer (2012-2104), the World Value Survey on Iraq (2013), and the Arab Transformations Project (2014). The total number of individual observations that have been randomly distributed among Iraqi provinces was about 5281. In terms of the qualitative data, this study systematically reviewed the laws and procedures as well as the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) executive orders regarding the electoral law, party system and electoral administration. To test our hypotheses, we employed binary logistic regression to estimate the effects of explanatory variables on voter turnout. An implication of this is the possibility that Iraq is heading toward a new era of a competitive authoritarian regime in which the main objective of holding elections is not to change the institutions peacefully but to maintain the status quo of post-American invasion and occupation political order. It is recommended that further in-depth experimental research be undertaken in the following areas: vote-buying and clientelism, voting behavior and individual and group iii mobilization, the rise of competitive authoritarianism, socioeconomic factors and voting patterns, institutional forbearance and distributive politics, elections integrity and last but not least voting behavior and the future of democratic transition in Iraq. The findings should make an important contribution to the field of voting behavior and political behavior in post-authoritarian countries in general and in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in particular. iv Acknowledgement I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Eric Dais for guiding and supporting me over the years. He was a tremendous supporter of this project and spent valuable on reading the draft. His thoughtful comments on numerous drafts not only improved the final draft but made me a better scholar. Many people provided invaluable support throughout the process of writing this dissertation. I am indebted to the Higher Committee of Education Development in Iraq (HCED) for funding my fellowship at Rutgers University. I would also like to thank my committee members Professor Richard Lau, Professor R. Daniel Kelemen and Professor Joseph Sassoon for their invaluable discussion, ideas, and feedback. I would especially like to thank my fellow graduate students and my friends who helped me editing this dissertation Dr. Kenneth Macari, Linda Macari, Maron Soueid, and Christian Alvarez. At every stage, my mom, wife and my children offered much-needed love, and encouragement. Finally, I would like to dedicate this thesis to To the souls of My Father (Fadhil 1951-2008), My Cousin (Muhammad 1990-2008), and My brothers in Law (Ayad 1976- 2013) and Mustafa (1976-2018) who are my source of pushing me move forward with more motivation and inspiration in my academic journey (2014-2019) v Table of Contents ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION .................................................................... ii Acknowledgement ........................................................................................................ v Table of Contents ........................................................................................................ vi List of Tables ............................................................................................................... ix List of Figures .............................................................................................................. x Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Background ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2. The significance of the Study ......................................................................... 12 1.3. Case Study: Why Iraq? ................................................................................... 14 1.4. The Puzzle of Voting Behavior in Iraq ........................................................... 19 1.5. Main Research Questions ............................................................................... 21 1.6. Data ................................................................................................................. 25 1.6.1. The Arab Barometer Project (Second and Third Wave) ......................... 25 1.6.2. World Values Survey Iraq, 2013 ............................................................. 27 1.6.3. The Arab Transformation Project (ATP) 2014 ............................................... 28 1.7. Mixed Method Research Design .................................................................... 29 1.8. The Argument ................................................................................................. 35 1.9. Path-Dependent analysis and Voter Turnout in Iraq ...................................... 39 1.10. What is meant by Formal and Informal Institutions? ..................................... 41 1.11. Plan of the Study............................................................................................. 45 Formal Institutions and Voter Turnout....................................................................... 50 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 50 2.2 Electoral System and Voter Turnout .................................................................. 54 2.3 The CPA Executive Order (96) in 2004 and the First Electoral System in Iraq 66 2.4 The First Amendment of the Electoral System and the Elections of 2005 ........ 76 2.5 The Second Amendment of the Electoral System of 2005 ................................ 81 2.6 The Electoral System Number 45 of 2013 ........................................................ 84 2.7 The Third Amendment of the Electoral System Number 45 in 2018 ................ 88 2.8 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 90 The Elections Management Body and Voter Turnout ......................................... 93 3.1 CPA Executive Order 92 of 2004 and the First Election Commission in Iraq .. 99 3.2 The First Electoral Commission Law number (11) of 2007 ............................ 104 vi Political Parties and Voter Turnout ...................................................................... 106 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 106
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