Equity Research L O S ANGELES | S A N FRANCISCO | NEW Y O R K | B O S T O N | C H IC A GO | MINNEAPOLIS | MILWAUKEE | SEATTLE Movies and Entertainment October 31, 2016 Michael Pachter Alicia Reese Nick McKay (213) 688-4474 (212) 938-9927 (213) 688-4343
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Biweekly Review -- A Look Ahead from Late October and Our Take on Current Events in the Film Exhibition, DVD, and VOD Industries • Q4 box office appears to be tracking down 16.0% year-over-year. October ended down ≈18%, with best performing films The Girl on the Train and The Accountant collectively grossing $127 million to date (with Metacritic scores of 48 and 51 respectively) facing a tough comparison to last year’s The Martian (which grossed $228 million, and was much more favorably reviewed with a Metacritic score of 80). Boo! A Madea Halloween appears to be performing better than expectations (grossing $52 million to date), likely benefitting from a fewer number of Halloween releases this year. Doctor Strange has reportedly grossed $86 million overseas, which bodes well for the film’s US and Chinese premieres this week. Despite the potential for any individual film to outperform our expectations however, the overall comparison for Q4 to last year remains a significantly high hurdle, facing the first Star Wars title in 10 years, the Hunger Games franchise finale, Daniels Craig’s last James Bond performance, and several successful Children’s films. We are thus maintaining our estimate for Q4 of down 8%.