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Starz Nasdaq: STRZA January 30, 2014 Volume XL, Issue I Starz Nasdaq: STRZA Dow Jones Indus: 15,848.61 S&P 500: 1,794.19 Russell 2000: 1,139.36 Trigger: No Index Component: NA Type of Situation: Business Value, Consumer Franchise Price: $ 27.98 Shares Outstanding (MM): Class A: 103.2 Class B: 9.9 Fully Diluted (MM) (% Increase): 120.5 (7%) Average Daily Volume (MM): 0.9 Market Cap (MM): $ 3,372 Enterprise Value (MM): $ 4,405 Percentage Closely Held: Malone 9%, 43% voting 52-Week High/Low: $ 30.48/15.95 Trailing Twelve Months Price/Earnings: 15.0x Introduction Price/Stated Book Value: 35.3x Starz (“STRZA” or the “Company”) is the third Long-Term Debt (MM): $ 1,064 leading premium pay TV programmer in the U.S. Asset Implied Upside to Estimate of Analysis Focus initially profiled Starz as part of its then- Intrinsic Value: 37% parent Liberty Media (LMC) in our Summer 2012 “Corporate Action” issue. At the time, we viewed the Dividend: NM pending spinoff of Starz into an independent company Payout NM as a potential catalyst for closing the large holding Yield NM company discount historically applied to LMC and, by proxy, Starz. That thesis played out even faster than Net Revenue Per Share: expected; in just over a year, Starz shares have TTM $ 14.81 doubled from their initial lows following the January 11, 2012 $ 13.30 2013 spinoff. 2011 $ 13.10 Despite Starz shares’ rapid ascent, we continue Earnings Per Share: to believe the market is under-appreciating the TTM $ 1.87 Company’s competitive position and long-term value. 2012 $ 2.05 The premium pay TV industry features stable 2011 $ 1.98 subscription revenue and structurally high margins, with large barriers to entry. Despite investor concern to the contrary, we believe the premium TV category is also Fiscal Year Ends: December 31 best-positioned to navigate the transition to Internet- Company Address: 8900 Liberty Circle delivered content. The subscription model (no Englewood, CO 80112 advertising revenue loss risk), a la carte distribution (no Telephone: 720-852-7700 un-bundling risk), and premium content (better CEO/Director: Christopher P. Albrecht positioned to win viewers in a more competitive video Clients of Boyar Asset Management, Inc. own 650 shares of Starz environment) all translate well online. At the same time, common stock at a cost of $30.00 per share. its under-penetration (vs. fully-penetrated basic cable) Analysts employed by Boyar’s Intrinsic Value Research LLC own means Internet distribution could actually boost shares of Starz common stock. - 21 - Starz subscribership over time. We believe these trends are evident in the outsized subscriber growth at Starz and its peers in recent years, despite the rise of subscription video on demand (SVOD; e.g. Netflix) competition. Subscribership increased 35% from year-end-2007 to 22 million as of 3Q 2013 at the flagship Starz channels, despite the deeply recessionary economy during much of that time. Even after the price appreciation, Starz shares still trade at a reasonable 9.6x EV/TTM OIBDA. More importantly, shares trade at only 11.4x TTM free cash flow. We believe free cash flow can continue to accelerate going forward on the back of annual rate increases, subscriber growth, and outsized savings from lower film acquisition costs. The latter savings will allow Starz to invest in expanding its original programming hours, which the Company expects to more than double by 2015 vs. 2010 levels. We believe the Company’s content strategy (targeted demographics, expense control) is sound and are comforted that former HBO head Chris Albrecht is leading the transition. Both HBO and Showtime have experienced record growth in recent years driven by improved original programming, and we believe Starz can execute a similar strategy. Nonetheless, we conservatively assume subscribers and revenue grow at low-to-mid single-digits going forward. Placing a 10x EV/OIBDA multiple on 2015 projections, we derive a forward-looking intrinsic value estimate of approximately $38 per share for Starz. Incremental long-term upside could come from favorable renegotiation of Starz’s affiliate fees (which we believe are under-priced), international distribution gains, and monetization of Starz’s content via Internet channels. Finally, Starz’s leadership (43% voting shareholder John Malone and chairman Greg Maffei) have expressed the benefits of consolidation and we believe Starz is a prime acquisition candidate. Barring M&A, the Company should continue to unlock shareholder value by aggressively repurchasing shares (7.4% purchased since the spinoff). History & Business Overview Starz traces its roots back to Encore Media, a company controlled by cable industry tycoon John Malone’s companies Tele-Communications Inc. (TCI) and its spinoff Liberty Media. Led by cable industry entrepreneur John Sie, Encore Media launched the upstart premium pay TV channel Encore in 1991 with distribution available through TCI’s national cable systems. Encore’s programming primarily featured classic movies from the 1960s-1980s. On February 1, 1994, Liberty and TCI launched sister premium pay TV network Starz, which offered premium first-run films from major studios including Universal, New Line, and Disney’s Touchstone. Starz was initially available to TCI customers at a cost of $4.99 per month including access to Encore. Encore and Starz were formally combined as Starz under the Liberty Media umbrella (with 20% still controlled by TCI) in 1997. In conjunction with TCI’s merger with AT&T in 1999, Starz/Liberty Entertainment ownership was wholly assumed by Liberty Media/Capital. Starz racked up $203 million in deficits in its first 3 years due to challenges gaining wider distribution as cable companies feared cannibalizing the existing premium networks. However, Liberty’s patience would eventually be rewarded, as the growth of digital cable and satellite would serve as a boon for Starz. This brought new distribution contracts and also allowed Starz to expand its multiplex lineup including the addition of HD channels and video-on-demand services. Starz turned cash flow positive in 1998, and Starz’s growing scale allowed the Company to expand its content offerings including signing first-run film output and large back library deals with Sony in 2000 and 2006, respectively. In 2006, Liberty acquired IDT Entertainment with the goal of building Starz’s original production and distribution platform. Renamed Starz Media, IDT included the two- dimensional animation subsidiary Film Roman and home video distributor Anchor Bay Entertainment. Also in 2006, Liberty separated into Liberty Interactive and Liberty Capital tracking stocks. Liberty Capital was further segmented with the creation of a Liberty Entertainment tracker in 2008, which housed Starz as well as Liberty’s majority interest in DirecTV and other cable assets. When the DirecTV stake was merged into DirecTV in 2009, Starz stayed with Liberty (in a decision John Malone has said DTV regrets). Starz was re-consolidated with Liberty Capital as part of the formal separation of Liberty Interactive in 2011. The dismantling of the Liberty conglomerate continued with Starz finally becoming an independent company when the spinoff from Liberty Media was completed following the market close on January 11, 2013. As part of the terms of separation, Starz paid $1.8 billion in cash dividends to Liberty Media. - 22 - Starz Business Description Starz is a leading premium subscription-based video programming (“premium pay TV”) provider to multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs) in the United States. Starz is a holding company that operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary Starz, LLC. Starz operates across 3 segments: Starz Networks, Starz Distribution, and Starz Animation. As illustrated in the financial table on the following page, Starz’s primary operating and reporting unit is its premium pay TV network, Starz Networks (formerly referred to as Starz Channels). Starz also includes the former Starz Media business, now composed of the Starz Distribution business unit (home video, digital media, and worldwide distribution) and the Starz Animation unit. Starz Networks Starz Networks is the Company’s core business unit, providing premium video programming to U.S. MVPDs across a multiplex of 17 channels under the Starz, Encore and MoviePlex brands. The flagship Starz multiplex of channels primarily airs “blockbuster” first pay TV window and second-run movies as well as original series without advertising interruption, and is supplemented with 5 additional themed channels (all 6 channels available in HD). (Note: Films are typically made available in a “first window” on premium TV channels 8-13 months after theatrical release and lasting ~18 months. A second window may last another 12 months on premium pay TV, sometimes with alternate distribution in between.) The Encore network consists of 8 genre themed channels that air a mix of first-release and somewhat older “classic contemporary” movies. MoviePlex includes 3 premium channels that primarily offer art house and independent films as well as older “classic” movies. Encore is primarily targeted at the male 35-50 demographic, with MoviePlex aimed at both men and women 35 and older. Starz Networks subscriptions also include extensive video-on-demand (VOD) content as well as Internet streaming content via the Starz Play app. As of September 30, 2013, there were approximately 22.0 million Starz subscribers and 35.0 million Encore subscribers. Starz is only distributed in premium pay TV packages with other premium channels like HBO and Showtime or on an a la carte basis. Encore may be bundled with Starz or in larger premium packages, or in lower-tier programming packages depending on the distributor. MoviePlex is typically bundled with Encore or distributed in lower-tier packages, and the Company does not release separate subscriber numbers for the channels. Starz’s channels are licensed to MVPDs under either consignment agreements (with revenue linked to the number of subscribers) or fixed-rate agreements, or occasionally a hybrid model, depending on the distributor.
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