Report No. 487a-NIR Current Econonmic Position and FEL Cop Development Prospects of Niger (In Three Volumes) Public Disclosure Authorized Volume IIl: The Agricultural Sector (Annexes) August 20, 1974 Western Africa Regional Office Not for Public Use Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Document of the International Bank for, Reconstruction and Development International Development Association Public Disclosure Authorized
This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Groulp authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or comrjleteness of the report. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Before 1969: US$1.00 = C.^'AF 247 1969-1971: US$1.00 = CFAF 278 1972: US$1.00 = CFAF 252 1973: US$1.00 = CFAF 222 1974 and after: US$1.00 = CFAF 250
WEIGHTS AND EASURES (Metric System)
1 hectare (ha) = 2.469 acres 1 kilometer (km) = 0.6215 miles 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2047 pounds 1 ton (t) = 1.1023 short tons = 0.9842 long tons 1 liter (1) = 1.057 US quarts
FISCAL YEAR
October 1 - September 30 NIGER
CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS
LIST OF ANNEXES
I. The Drought
II. Current Situation of Agricultural Research
III. OFEDES and the Problem of Water Resources
IV. Exports of Fresh Vegetables: SONIPRIM
V. Badeguicheri Project
VI. Rural Development Project for the Zinder Region
VII. Maradi Integrated Rural Development Project
VIII. Rural Development Project for the Department of Dosso
IX. Feedlot Fattening Using Irrigated Fodder Crops: The Tiaguirire Project
X. Irrigation Development in the River Niger Depressions
XI. List of Projects Plaking up the Emergency Program (1 973)
XII. List of Pre-Investment Studies
XIII. Marketing Institutions
XIV. Projections: Production, Exports, Investment
This report is based on the findings of an economic mission that visited Niger in October-November 1973. The mission included Messrs. L. de Azearate (chief), P. Streng (economist), and R. Sordoillet (agronomist, consultant). This volume was prepared by Messrs. Sordoillet and de Azearate.
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
BDRN Banque de D6veloppement de la R6publique du Niger
CCCE Caisse Centrale de Coop6ration Economique (France) CFDT Compagnie Fr;anqaise pour le D6veloppement des Fibres Textiles CNCA Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole CSPPN Caisse de Stabilisation des Prix des Produits du Niger
FAC Fonds d'Aide et de Coop6ration (France) FED Fonds Europeen de D6veloppement FNI Fonds National d'Investissement
IRAT Institut de Rlecherches.Agronomiques Tropicales
NER 1inistere de l'Economie Rurale
NITEX Societe Nige:rienne des Textiles
OCDN Organisation Commune Dahomey-Niger des Chemins de Fer et des Transports OFEDES Office des EDux dii Sous-Sol CLANI Office du Lait du Niger OPVN Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger
SEPANI Societe d'E)cloitation des Produits d'Arachide du Niger SHN Societ6 des Tuileries du Niger SCONIGER Societe Industriel)e et Co5merciale du Niger SNC Soci6t6 Nationale de Cimenterie SONARA Societ6 Nig6:rienne de Commercialisation de l'Arachide SONERAN Societ6 Nige:rienne d'Exploitation des Ressources Aniimales SONICERAY Soci6tg Nig6erienne de C6ramiques SONIFAMIE Societ6 Nigercienne de Fabrication de Neubles Netalliques SONIPRINi Soci6t6 Nige:rienne des Prineurs SOTRAMIIL Soci 6tA de T:ransformation du Yil et du Sorgho
UNCC Union Nig6rienne de Cr6edit et de Cooperation
Page 1 of 3 pages
ODUNTRYDATA - NIGER
ARA POPULATION DENSITY 1,2167,000 ka2 4.25 ifUon (rid-19172)* 32 /a Per km2of arable land
SOCIAL INDICATORS
ReferenceCountries RiEr lyV7 1970 I0F
GNP PER CAPITA US$ (ATLAS hASIS) a 130 90 b 100 /b 120 /b 260 /b
DEMOGRAPHIC Crude birth rate (per thousand) 52 /e 52 'A 49 /d,e 49 44 Crude death rate (per thmwand) 27 o 23 24 1,: 18 22 Infant mortality rate (per thouaand live births) 200. .. 94 156 If Life expectancy at birth (years) 37c 4,2 39 48 b2
Gross reproduction rate /2 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.0 Population growth rate 3.0 2.9 / 26 /g 2 2.31I Population growth rate - urban 6Ah 77E 7r 41,5
Age structure (percent) lo-lb 44 45 44Sab/D 45 42 15-64 531 527i 52 7. 52 54 65 and over 37T 37; 4 7ii 3 4 Dependency ratio A 1.6 7;i 1.0 7an 1.1 7E 1.0 /n 1.1 /n Urban population as percent of totaL 6A 8 A 6 It 12 129IA Fanily planning. No.of acceptors oamolative (thous.) .. ,. No. of users(% o married wnaen) ZeNPYKNNT Total labor force (thousands) 770 1,900 /a 2,000 / ?,4OC/e 1,600 /e,q Percentage employed in agriculturn. - 91 7 88 7p 80 7i 73 Percentage unemployed 7
INCOMEDISTRIBUTION Percent o- national income roceived by highest 5% 23 .. Percent of national income received by highest 20% 42 .. Percont of national income received by lowest 20% 6 . Percent of national incomc received by lowest 40% 18 .. DISTRIBUTIONO LANDONRSH}P %owned by top 109 of owners .. .. S owned by smallest 10% of owners
HEALTH aND NUTRITION Fopulation per physician 71,000 Ir 58,260 75,250 /I 15,94G, 31,940 Population per nursing person 7,5oo 7;r 7 040 16,090 7i 1,950 2,1,10 Population per hospital bed 1,880 Zt 2,230 640 1,04,0 /u 730 /u
i'r capita calorie supply as %of requireaento / .. 90 /I 98 85 /r 96 /v Per capita protein eupply, total (gross per day) .. 78 7; o 59 7; 64 7i Of which, animal and pule .. 24 77 9 24 7; 28 7i; Death rate 1-4 yearn .. .. SWCATION AdJusted 8 prilmary school enrollanL ratio 6 14 37 25 /a 44 If Adjust.d cecoradary school enrollunt ratio 0.3 hv 1 3 9 7 7 72 Tears of achooling provided, first aid second level 13 13 14 12 13 Vocational enrollment as %of sec. s:hool enrolleent 4 2 6/s 3 1 /a 12 /a Adult literacy rate % *- *- *- 19 7; 10 7; hOUSIN Average No. of persons per room (uwbin) .. .. 1.9 /aa 2.5 /e,v Percent of occupied units without piped water 78 7o ab 36 a Access to electricity (as %of total population) 16 S_ 3 26 Percent of tural population connected to electricity .. .. 0.0 NStPTION Radio receivers par 1000 population 1 36 20 12 If 69 Passenger cars per 1000 population 0.6 t 1 2 2 11 Electric power consumption (kwh p.c.; 3 9 32 25 81 Newsprint censumption p.c. kg per year 0.03 O .0. .014 0.2 0.08 Notes. Figures refer either to the latel,t perioda or to a*oount of noviroorental tmperature, body weights, and the latest yearn. Lateet periods refer :n principle to diatribution by age and * x of national popalations. the years 1956-60 or 1966-70 the latest years in prin- / Protein standards (requirenents) for all countries am estab- ciple to 1960 and 1970. - liehed by aSDAEconceio Research Service provide for a minimum a The Per Capita GNP estimate it at maruet prices for allowance of 60 grams of total protein per day, and 20 pams of ye.ro other than 1960,calculated by Ihe asse conversion animal and pulse protein, of which 10 gron should be animal technique as the 1972 World Bank Atl,,s. protein. Theme atandarda are somewhat lower than those of 75 2. Average numaber of daughters per womaxuof reproductive vrams of total protein and 23 grams of animal protein am an age. average for the world, proposed by lAO in the Tbird World Poond L2 Population growth rates are for the Cecades ending in Survey. 1960 and 1970. a Somnestudies have auggested that crude death rates of children &L Ratio of under 15 and 65 and over age brackets to ages 1 through 4 aay be used as a first approximation index of those in labor force bracket of ages 15 through 64. malnutrition. & FAO reference standarda represent physiological re- Li Percentage enrolled of oorreaponding population of school age quirements for normal activity and health, taking am defined for each nountry.
* Resent 2ek ision estint. for mid-1972 is 4.2 1-.
/a 1969; A 1972; /c 1959-60; /d 1965-70, U estimte; /s Estimatel /f 19681 /g 1960-72; A Definition not evaiSb4e; It -Ai tomabips and to planning areas and i district cenere; LI 7E;ty-eight tewn's A Cap-not region and the cities of Saint-Louis, Thies, aolack, Dicurbel and Ziguinchor- /1 Eatimate for dejure population, bae d on reslts of smple surve y k! 1966; /j Ratio of population ander and 65 and over to total labor forcel Lo Estimate based on the resulta of a sample srveY and excludee labor force of iazq city, nomad population and reignera; & 110 estimt;l q 1970-71n r 1962; LB Cavrage of data incoaplete; A 1963; ^ a Government hospital eatablishmenter; /a lPdjp.66f hgNot inolvding privat vocational schoole; /x 1965; Public oducation only; /s Not inaludfng teacher tr iling; / 1967; /ab Urban only; /ac 1964.
Senegal has been selected as an objective country since its ONP in about three times that of Niger; both countrien ame in the same geographical rea, have similar production patterqs (with the same dominant crop -- groundnuts), share the same monetary aytem and have about the same population.
R2 Novotber 5, 1974
A.N, imic Page 2 of 3 pages
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1969 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices)
FCFA Bln % 196 -6 196 - 19 GNP at Market Prices 103.0 100.0 Gross Domestic Investment 6.3 6.1 Gross National Saving 4.9 4.8 Current Account Balance - 1.4 - 1.4 Exports of Goods, NFS 10.6 10.3 Imports of Goods, NFS 17.2 16.7
OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1971
Value Added Labor Force V.A. per Worker FCFA Bln % Mln 7 FCFA Agriculture, Livestock, Fishing 51.95 47.6 Manufacturing 11.92 10.9 Construction 3.07 2.8 Services 40.15 36.8 Public Administration ( 8.24) ( 7.6) Other 2.03 1.9 Total/Average 109.12 100.0
GOVERNMENT FINANCE Central Government FCFA Bln % of GDP 1971/72 1971/72 Current Receipts 12.13 Current Expenditure 11.24 Current Surplus 0.89 Capital Expenditures 2.45 External Assistance 1.33
MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES (IFS) j 1965 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 (Million FCFA outstanding end period) Money and Quasi-Money 6,722 9,212 9,596 12,135 12,896 15,504 20,315 Bank Credit to Public Sector (net) -1,046 - 396 -1,652 -2,324 -3,458 _3,402 -7,152 Bank Credit to Private Sector 8,644 10,064 10,047 9,738 10,677 12,464 20,973 Money and Quasi-Money as % of GDP .. 9.4 9.4 11.1 General Price Index (1964 - 100) 2/ 104.0 125.0 125.9 131.2 144.0 160o9 166.3 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index --- 4.7 --- 0.7 4.2 9.8 11.7 3.4 Bank Credit to Public Sector . . . Bank Credit to Private Sector --- 3.9 --- -0.2 -3.1 9.6 16.7 63.3
1/ Data are not strictly comparable with those shown in the Statistical Appendix. 2/ Consumer price index, Niamey. Page 3 of 3 pages
TRADE PAYMENTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1970-72) 1970 1971 1972 FCFA Mln1 n (MillW FCFA) Exports of Goods, NFS 16,802 18,1i1 20,640 Groundnut Products 5,504 49.8 Imports of Goods, NFS 25,873 24 268 26 272 Live Animals 1,958 17.7 Resource of Gap -9,071 :-,127 - Uranium Concentrates 1,449 13.1 Factor Payments (net) - 208 - 218 - 218 Cotton 305 2.8 Private Transfers (net) i48 - 50 Hides and Skins 245 2.2 Current Balance -9,231 :7,345 -5,800 Onions 233 2.1 Direct Investment and Beans 149 1.3 Other Private Long-Term Other 1.216 l.D Capital (net) 5,193 2,960 1,120 Total Recorded Exports 11,059 100.0 85.9 Inflow (5,704) (3.171) (1,330) Unrecorded Exports (est.) 1 822 14.1 Outflow (- 511) (- 211) (- 210) Total Merchandise Exports 12,881 100.0 Official Transfers (net) 7,725 7,430 8,700 Government Capital (net) 691 - 84 437 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1973 Inflow (1,050) ( 726) (1,304) US$ Mln Outflow (- 359) (- 810) (- 867) Public Debt, incl. Guaranteed 116.7 Other Items (net) -1 815 377 -2,187 Change in Reserves 23 w3 2,270 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1972
Gross Reserves (end year) 5,561 9,791 12,113 Central Bank (5,200) (8,592) (10,558) Public Debt, incl. Guaranteed 2.9 / Net Reserves (end year)3/ 3,275 7,613 9,883 Central Bank (5,081) (8,580) (10,553) IDA LENDING, DECEMBER 31 , 1974 US$ Mln Petroleum Products Imports - FCFA million 603 1,183 1,392 Undisbursed s7.e - us$ million 2.2 4.3 5.4 Outstanding, incl. Undisbursed 237.8 - 1,000 tons 51.0 56.9 60.3 Exports - - -
RATE OF EXCHANGE
Through November 1971 US$1.00 - FCFk 277.71 December 1971 through January 1973 US$1.00 - FCFA 255.79 Since February 1973 US$1.00 - FCFA 230.10
FF 1.00 - FCFA 50.0
IncludingT US$15.3 million undisbursed. / Ratio of external debt service (US$2.3 million) to exports of goods and non-factor services as shown in the balance of payments. 3/ Including medium- and long-term foreign liabilities of development banks. Original principal amount (US$22.10 million) plus adjustment to reflect the devaluation of the United States dollar (US$1.71 million).
not available not applicable
December 1974
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As '~~~~ - ui2S''i'X -. @y C.~ ~ ~ M ooA~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ECA VOLTA- 800 G E R I A The bouedarles sho- etonc byd nthe z j DAHOMEY 0 50 U00 50 200 250KM mplya,rela.ccby dorsewnf th ) I REPUBLIC OF NIGER N I G E R OUTLETS TO THE SEA / N - X A~~~~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~TAHOUAfTBANNOKU^T I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~KF M A L | ! .. oBIRNI -N'KONN \-/J ) AMEY X-t - M BAZA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~TESSAOUA >)IDER U P P E R VOLTA Doss AT OUAGA-\US_U ( < MAM UURU NG *2 0UAGAOOUE0U \~~~~~~~~~~~~~LLANVLI.GAOAIAA I V O R Y \ AAKU C O A S T t TOG9 ; N I G E R 1 A 0 j ~~~~GH A N A ! |Csv4 IODJAN %. a 1 G U L F O F G U N E A The bo-ndanes shown on tlnsmap do not mply endo-ement or acceplance by the W-ld Bank and tsaffliates ;dF ~~~Jj ~~~Roads 50 50 0150 25IOOM[ S-I--- Roilroads r0 50 o5 0 150 250 350KM l-ternoGnonral bo.ndor,es 0 IBRD3533R1 OCTOBER 1974 M A L I . REPUBLIC OF NIGER 7 ' kaf, -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~bo 438 1150 764 539 43 1 02 1689 Molbozo 258 N NIAME)%IMf318 -138- 1057~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~17 UPPER VOLTA\> Govc/ Malonville no 4381 5 .J 13315 f N I G E R I A >/ cn LDAHOMEY N ___ ) ~ ~~/ s / lX ,gZ 1Ililil ~~~~~~~~~~Railway Road i * 438 Porakou !g t > j < ,/ -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~Border < OT G 0| f DISTANCES TO| 438 Distance by railway SEAPORT 315 Distance by road > t j / \ 6t753 Total distance to seaport o io 200 300 ( iJ t / ) ° Kilometers 01 j t ?50 I 100 150 200 1 0 Miles ATLANTIC OCEAN REPUBLIC OF NIGER TRANSPORTATION ROUTES m Vc,-nuuu0: u,l -cP d.o FOR GROUNDNUT EXPORTS ~~~IGER~~~~~~~0L I BYA -$ NIGER NIGER t RCRAINFALL,GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS AND AFRICA / MAIN ROUTES IN THE zi220 t PASTORAL ZONE 22 ' y) KILOMETERS __0 50 100 tso1o5.0.>>Ir200 MILES TTThumssw STUDY AREA (FAC.SEDES) 5O..500 _ ISOHYET R U 03 LMaIvrn1- T vo-i?U ~ - -- _NORMAL RAINFALL IN MM) ------.--.-- S ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~BiIma~ TRACK (FOR MOTOR VEHICLES) 21 8 i / ___CAMEL _ TRACKS A'K of B i a I8~~~~~~ ~SEASONFAL FLOODEr -18° o . SE^SrwALFLOG...... |"~+-'-'l-;'>=~~' ~~~~~rAZiXlN'i, E N E gE gf Bf IImIim a ---~~< RIV~ER _. . _ iTERNATIorIAL BOUND4RIES .A t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ \ Tano0 R- \ %o./'X (40~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4 chin-laba,ade~~Mor~ ~~0 Vi O-u L T A g) 4 Ftna\ , =-~-- D N DJAMENA To Oua3o1doo o 30er., 'r ..- SomokoofldAb,droo i4 . ft Gl _ ~~~Tohoronkco imply Qflrkront5te Oorcepne th ll ythe nt N I G E i IA. 3 j -)4* Cotooo WRor ken tTfl0ode. 3od A 12° Z DAHOMEY 40 80 _0 CoI A11'N1EX I Page i Th. DROUGHT 1. Over the 6 years extending from 1968 to 197'1 drylands of tropi- cal Africa have been exposed to _Lve years of intensive 4rought, in the course of w.,ich the annual rainfall def--it has been amongst . - most acute ever ex- per.' -iced by the region dutring - period covered by e:i3ting records. In 1973 is appears to have suffered worst of all. 2. The repercussions have been many and varied. In order, however, to fully appreciate these consequences and consider effective remedies, one must first attempt to define the true nature of what has ha9pened. Is this region faced i-ith a progressive drying up of the climate and a consequential rever- sion to the desert? Is this a cyclical movement? (a) The same questions were being asked as far back as 1935. That year, an Anglo-French mission composed of administrators and forestry per- sonnel had surveyed the Niger-Nigerian frontier region between Niamey and Lake Chad, reaching the conclusion that nothing in the natural phenomena occurring at that time warranted the assumption of a pro- gressive reversion to desert conditions; (b) Even if the desert made inroads into the region in the geological period extending from 2,500 BC to 500 BC, the available meteorologi- cal data provide no basis for assuming a similar climatic pattern in the present era. Annual fluctuations at Niger weather stations (cf. annexed curves for three stations with a longitudinal spread) are such that it would be misleading to draw any firm conclusions from the 50 years of observations they represent; (c) In the recorded past (1913-16, 1942-44, 1955-56) there have been other droughts as severe as --and even more severe than- those that have occurred recently, though, it seems, extending over short- er periods of time. Moreover, in order to tmderstand the true scale of the drought, one should consider not only rainfall levels but also the duration of the rainy season and the distribution of rain- fall. Whiatever the explanation may be and even if the occurrence of certain periods that are drier than others can be related to solar activity, we cannot describe them as cyclical phenomena; (d) The reasons for the apparent reversion to desert must therefore be sought elsewhere. It is clear that the immediate cause is a twofold process of erosion: - by water, whose long-run effects, in terms of Niger floods and lower groundwater tables, have become more marked; - by the wind, which strips off the loose soil, whips up the sand and destroys the seeds sown by the plant cover. ANNEX I Page 2 This twofold process of erosion is, furthermore, promoted by deforestation, uncontrolled use of land by herdsmen (overgrazing, cutting of branches, bush fires) or by farmers (cultivation of pedologically and climatically marginal land without special safeguards). Reversion to desert would therefore appear to be made possible by the action of man himself, even without a change in climate. One is indeed entitled to ask whether the rapid increase in the number of men and livestock, accelerated by the benefits of medical and veterinary science, has not upset the balance created between man and the soil, before the extremely limited achievements of agricultural technology have been able to do anything to offsat the process. 3. The effects on agriculture have been many and varied: (a) The most immediate result has been the food shortage. The 1973 relief effort was organized to meet the shortfall in the 1972 rainy-season crop. It mobilized close to 120,000 tons of food (cereals, flours and powdered milk) to support over 500,000 people for a more or less protracted period. The year was both the occa- sion for a show of international solidarity and for the organiza- tion of the shipment and distribution of food within the country under the aegis of OPVN. It was a year that focused attention on transportation difficulties, both those involved in linking the coastal ports to Niger's major centers and then in redistri- buting food through secondary centers and finally from these to more remote points. Deficiencies both in transportation facilities and in secondary roads were very evident. The use of aircraft (drops with or without parachute) on an emergency basis proved to be ruinously expensive. 1/ The total cost of emergency aid in 1972-73 amounted to CFAF 10.5 billion. The 1973/74 season may well be marked by even more severe shortages butt these should be handled less haphazardly. Given the present status of both agricultural and demographic statis- tics, it is difficult to evaluate the extent of the food shortage resulting from a deficit 1973/74 campaign. The following estimate for the entire country has been made by Niger's Agriculture Direc- torate: 1/ It was estimated that it cost CFAF 50/kg just to airlift sorghum from Lagos to Agadez or about twice the c.i.f. price Lagos. ANN!EX I Page 3 Gross food requirements 250 kg per capita 192 kg per capita per annum per annum Population 1973/74 4,468,000 Total gross food requirements 1,117,000 tons 857,856 tons 1973/74 production (millet plus sorghum) 795,000 tons Available food supplies (net) (80%) 636,328 " 636,328 " Shortfall 480,672 " 221,528 " Other estimates, based on a more refined evaluation of unit needs (SEDES norms for consumption in urban, nomad and sedentary popula- tion groups) but suffering from the same uncertainties with respect to production, conclude to a shortfall of 250,000 tons. (b) W4e have seen the impact on food crops, where total production (millet plus sorghum) will amount to 795,000 tons instead of the 1,300,000 tons that might be expected in a year when the weather is normal. It has already been noted that, while a bad year has a direct impact on cash crop yields, its effects are continued in the following year in the form of a reduction in the area sown with the crops in question, as a result of a relative sense of disenchantment on the part of the farmer and a natural tendency on his part to more than ever give priority to his food crops. In the case of groundnuts, the seed may well be eaten as food. For cotton, on the other hand, although parasitic attacks are less severe, their effect is immediately felt in Niger where pest and disease controL treatments are rarely applied. The upshot is a markedly unfavorable impact on commercial crops. The lesson has been clearly dr2awn and applied in the current so-called producti- vity operation and those in course of preparation: these seek to make simultaneous improvements in both food and cash crops. (c) Animal husband:y is affected not only in terms of its current out- put but, more seriously, in its future potential. Until statistical surveys have been made in conjunction with the forthcoming 1974 inoculation campaign, one can only guess as to the number of livestock lost. It is the grazing area that has been most depleted. It may be found that the total normal herd of 4.5 million head has been reduced to 2.5 million. ANNEX I Page 4 Of the 2 million missing: some have died; some have been exported on an emergency basis; some have been prematurely slaughtered; some have been prematurely moved south of the border and have not returned (500,000?); some have been settled in new areas. The effect of all this on the structure of the herds is equally important for the future. It is clear that the old cows and calves will have been the first to die. Overall, this reduction could have a rejuvenating effect and favor the reproduction rate. 4. Remedial action falls into two categories, short and lonR term: (a) Short-term remedies should seek to mitigate the food shortage. (i) In the first place, food reserves must be created to replace those traditionally held by each family in the days of indi- vidual subsistence farming. This stockpiling policy falls naturally within the terms of reference of OPVN. A project to build storehouses is currently under consideration with the twin objectives of: - regulating the prices of cereals (millet plus sorghum) consumed by the urban and semi-urban sectors of the popu- lation (centers with more than 5,000 inhabitants), esti- mated to total 623,000 persons in 1982; - creating reserve stocks for this population, representing standby supplies for a full three months. On the basis of consumption at the rate of 210 kg per capita per annum (intermediate estimate) with the 20% margin needed to regulate prices, we arrive at the following estimates of the capacity needed: Buffer stocks Reserve stocks Total 1972 12,000 tons 15,000 tons 27,000 tons 1982 27,000 tons 28,000 tons 55,000 tons ANNEX I Page 5 A first stage of 15,000 tons will be completed by the end of 1973 (US-AID loan). This capacity should be increased to 27,000 tons by 1975. (ii) Storage capacity is nevertheless costly to create and maintain. 1/ It is therefore justified ito think of investing at the same time in irrigation projects, which perform a similar role by making available to the market a certain tonnage of food-in years of scarcity. Well-designed irrigation facil- ities, especially when located along the river, allow the harvesting of two intensive crops a year unaifected by the vagaries of climate. (b) Long-term remedias should provide for ecological conservation and the maintenance of agricull:ural production potential. (i) In arable farming, soil protection and restoration techniques (ridg- ing and terracing), i.e. cc'ntour farming, have long been known. The planting of Acacia albida (known as gao in Niger) in trench systems (10 x 10 meters) or as a windbreak, at least along property lines, should be widely introduced, whenever possible. In research every effort should be made to select or create varieties (cereals, pulses) whose short growing-cycle will enable them to adapt to a rainfall of 80% of the current normal rainfall of the area where they are to be grown. Turning to agricultural policy, one notes that the years in which rainfall is scarcest are also those in which it is unequally distributed throughout the country, so that every opportunity for geographical diversifi- cation should be seized and the number of individual projects for raising the productivity of food and cash crops alike increased so as to cover the widest possible area - in fact from Dosso to Zinder. (ii) In forestry, priority sbould be given to reconstituting forests close to population centers as a source of firewood. (iii) In animal husbandry, it had become clear in the course of the past decade that it was not enough to develop an infrastructure of stock watering facilities. A rational pasture system, avoiding overgrazing and permitting resowing, i.e. providing a positive and permanent assurance of fodder growing potential, can only be achieved by specialization in the breeding function. This will allow the young livestock and the males to be taken out of the herd (destocked) at an early stage and it is also readily adaptable to wide fluc- tuations in the weight of sires.. The systematic exploitation of grazing areas (regular management of pastures and of watering points) will then be much easier. 1/ Between CFAF 30,000 and 40,000 per ton for large silos, including clean- ing tower and handling equipment. CYAF 10,000 to 15,000 per ton for cooperative silos with a capacity of a few tons. ANNEX I Page 6 5. One can hardly close these observations on the drought without some reference to artificial rainfall, which was twice attempted experimentally in Niger in the 1973 rainy season. The first operation (which lasted 30 days) was entrusted to a spe- cialist company from Oklahoma (cost: CFAF 30 million), where this method is said to have been used regularly over a long period. This American process is applied to cold clouds, which are bombarded with silver iodide. The techni- que has the advantage of only calling for limited and relatively light equip- ment, although silver iodide itself is a costly product. The operation took place principally in the eastern part of the country. The French Government, for its part, improvised a similar operation under its aid program. The French process is applied to warm clouds, which are seeded-with sodium chloride. Substantial amounts are required on each occasion (several quintals) and a Transall aircraft (heavy cargo) is therefore used. The reports on these operations are not yet available. The fact that Niger's meteorological resources are very thinly spread will presumably make it difficult both to adopt such methods and to evaluate their true results. VARIATIONS IN ANNUAL RAINFALL AND IN NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS AT NIAMEY heighth m m/m 1000 a K 900 A - Rainfall j B - Number of rainy days [ 0~~~~~C-NORMAL ranfl 800 L. _C|-mD -ORMAL number of rainy days l 600 - 600- 2 - 400 4 160 A1 30 Ba 300 20 1921 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 19j50 1955 1960 1965 1970 - World Bank-8825(R) VARIATIONS IN ANNUAL RAINFALL AND IN NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS AT MARADI heighth m m/m 1000|- A - Rainfall B - Number of rainy days C-NORMAL rainfall I 900 D - NORMAL number of rainy days 800 e' 11 A I E 700 - j, ,! (I-A 60- 600 -607 / A V~~~~~~~~~~~ 350 300 20 \ 1921 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1r50 1955 1960 1965 1970 World Barik-8826(R) VARIATIONS IN ANNUAL RAINFALL AND IN NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS AT TAHOUA heighth m m/m 1000 _ 900 - A - Rainfall 8 - Number of rainy days C - NORMAL rainfall D0-NORMAL number of rainy days E 700 600 0 500 -60 lA A + A/ I\4 .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Z X -50 I -.. - -- 400 - -40 00', 7I 00 4\7 300 L?n \I \'xq '~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-A 200 1 1 1 1 1 i 1921 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 r World Bank-8827(R) ANNEX II Page 1 CURRENT SITUATION OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH 1, Most of the results summarized below 1/ were obtained during the past decade as a result of the work of: IRAT 2/ for general agronomy, cereals, pulses, forage crops and sugar cane; IRCT 3/ for cotton. 2. In general agronomy, studies of mineral deficiencies in growing silts and land-parcels hauve been made for the principal types of soil in Niger and supplemented by leaf diagnoses. In ferruginous tropical dune soils, phosphorus represents the main limiting factor; sulphur deficiencies are less in evidence and occur less regularly; magnesium and trace-element deficiencies have been noted in the soLls of the northern cereal-growing region; potassium deficiencies are exceptional. In the clay-loam soils of the valley of the Niger, Goulbis, Maggia and Komadougou, nitrogen is the only limiting factor. Land improvement studies were accordingly undertaken in the light of the above situation. The dune soils at Tarna were given a corrective fertilizer dressing of 75 units of P205 and this, in association with 135 units of nitro- gen, enabled them to achieve the maximum output of P3 Kolo millet i.e. 30 quintals ha 4/, whereas without fertilizer the yields for this crop are only 6 - 8 quintals ha. 3. Since 1966 the yields from the succession cropping of groundnuts and millet have been maintained at a high level of 20 quintals for millet and 23 quintals for groundnuts through the application to 'each crop of a maintenance dressing of 20 kg of Pi05 on groundnuts and 20 kg of P2O5 plus 65 1gj of nitrogen on millet; these ferti izer quantities are computed by deducting from the re- quirements for each crop the nutrients left in the soil by the preceding crop. After seven years'of caltivation' the res:toration of the potassium has not yet. proved to be necessary.- It:'has been observed that the application of these dressings has had a very favorable effect'on the resistance of the crops to drought.. 4. In,order to-correct deficiencies,in'ph,o,sphoric acid, experimental applications of-basic phosphate'fertilizer-have been .made,since 1966 at 1/ Based on an IRAT'memorandum of December 1972. 2/ Institut de Recherches- Agronomiques Tr'opicales. 3/ Institut de Recherche pour le Coton et les Fibres Textiles. 4/ Quintal - 100 kilograms.' ANNEX II Page 2 Magaria and 1967 at Tarna with phosphate obtained from Tahoua. The nature of these soils (low acidity and little organic matter) and the generally in- adequate level of rainfall do not promote the achievement of rapid results with this phosphate. At Magaria the effect of its use did not become marked until the fourth year, when each kilogram of phosphate produced an additional yield of I quintal of millet. At Tarna it showed results in the third year, each kilogram of phosphate producing substantial additional yields of 1.5 to 2 quintals of millet. 5. As regards the fertilization of alluvial clay-loam soils, the maximum output of 137-62 sorghum obtained with 100 units of nitrogen has been 51 quintals in Goulbi soils and 50 quintals in Maggia soils. On the irrigated rice plantations at Kolo the maximum output of 62 quintals was obtained with D52-37 rice using 90 units of nitrogen. With organic manure, millet fertilization first shows significant results with an application of 10 tons/ha. The plowing in of 6 tons of groundnuts shells has proved as efficient on millet as that of 12 tons of manure an effect resulting from the improvement of the soil structure. 6. In the case of green manuring, cultivation techniques for producing a maximum green crop and for plowing it in have been perfected. On the basis of these techniques, detailed experimental work, including the study of the transformation of organic matter in the soil, was again taken up in 1969 at Tarna and Magaria; these experiments have not shown any significant results other than those attributable to working the soil. 7. So far as rotation patterns are concerned, the studies that have been made show that the succession cropping of cereals should be avoided. After fallowing, a groundnut/millet sequence is preferable to the reverse. Studies on the value of inter cropping (companion crops) as compared with single crops, point to the economic benefits of millet/groundnut and millet/ cowpea associations, using only non-sophisticated methods. 8. With regard to working the land, a series of experiments on dune soils with a fallow/groundnut/millet/millet rotation have been carried out since 1965 at Tarna, since 1967 at Magaria and since 1968 at Kala-Pate: they point to the substantial results achieved by plowing (+40%) and by weeding (+20%) with millets under rotation, although the effect on ground- nuts is very minor. The reduction in soil fertility has not been established. With alluvial soils, preparatory field-work, plowing after the first rains on Goulbi soils and dry-plowing before the rains on the sandy loams of the Maggia,. double the yields. For field maintenance work, equipment that can readily be drawn by a single ox has been perfected in association with CEEMAT. In the case of groundnuts, two spells of early maintenance work in the fields give the same results as 3 or 4. 9. Between 1964 and 1972, agroclimatological and bioclimatological ex- periments undertaken by SEHA at Tarna have provided the basis for studies on the water requirements of various crops, both dry season (wheat, onions, ANNEX II Page 3 tomatoes, maize and cowpeas) and rainy season (sorghum and cotton). It hiasi thus been possible to recomnend certain guidelines for intensive cultivation, establish the soil potential in the Goulbi valley in Maradi under such con- ditions, study the allocation of water to these crops and thus ascertain optimal irrigation guidelines from both technical and economic standpoints. These practical results are immediately available to engineers responsible for the design of improvements or to technicians directly supervising the execution of projects and the operation of irrigation facilities, 10. So far as cereals are concerned, many new varieties of millet have been introduced as a result of internationally conducted cooperative experi- ments. Up to now, no variety has proved to be superior to the local P3 Kolo, which gives the best yield throughout the country with the exception of the Tera region. Turning to fertilizers that show an immediate return, 15 kg of nitrogen and 15 kg of P205 applied in the form of urea and triple superphos- phate give in Tarna an average additional yield of 5 quintals/ha. Its re- sults have proved uncertain in experiments in a number of other locations: it appears that, at best, additional yields of 3 quintals/ha can be obtained with P3 Kolo, which just about breaks even with the cost of the fertilizer. For sorghum, experiments at a number of locations have pointed to the value of Jan Jare and of 137-62 in valley soils and of P3 Matankari on dune soils. In international cooperative experiments conducted since 1966, Indian and American short-stemmed hydrids such as NK 300 and ms 172 x is 84-2 have given yields exceeding 50 quintals/ha. 11. In the case of rice the D52-37 variety has been created as a result of experiments: this variety has been created as a result of experiments: this variety has many uses and is adaptable for most purposes in Niger. IRAT has a wide range of very productive varieties such as IR8, although their grain quality is not yet satisfactory. A nitrogen dressing of 70 units of nitrogen applied in the form of urea is a very good investment. 12. For groundnuts, experiments at a number of places have provided the basis for determining the variety best adapted to each climatic region: 28.204 for areas with rainfall below 500 mm; 47.16 for areas with rainfall between-550 and 650 mm; 28.206 for areas with rainfall between 650 and 750 mm; 48.37 for the part of the region of Gaya with heavy rainfall, although groundnuts in this area are exposed to the risk of rosette. As far as fertilization is concerned, experiments conducted both on the station and on various trial plots between 1965 and 1968 have pointed up the importance of the application of 15 kg of P205 in the form of simple super- phosphate. This very economical fertilizer provides worthwhile additional yields, ranging from 5 quiritals/ha in years of normal rainfall to 3 quantals/ ha in drier years. Important residual effects have been-noted in millet crops ANNEX II Page 4 following groundnuts. With the first crop increases in yields run between 2 and 3 quintals/ha and even with the second crop they are still of the order of one quintal. 13. In the case of cowpeas (niebe), erect varieties insensitive to photoperiodism have been under study since 1965. In each range of early cowpeas, the most productive varieties have been selected and hybridized to obtain a cowpea with good seed qualities. The following can be recommended for widespread use: TN 88-63 and 36-64 with a 70-day growing cycle, for areas with rainfall below 500 mm; TN 4-69 and TN 65-64 with a growing cycle of 90 days, for areas with rainfall between 550 and 650 mm; TN 98-63 (sensitive to photoperiodism) with a growing cycle of 130 days for areas with good rainfall. 14. So far as plant health is concerned, good yields (1,500 to 2,000 kg/ha) can be obtained in monoculture with two applications of insecticides at the rate of 3 litres/ha of Thymul 35 (35% Endosulfan), the first applica- tion being made at the beginning of the flowering period and the second ten days afterwards. An economically acceptable technique for preserving the seed under plastic bags with the use of carbon tetrachloride has been developed. 15. Research work on the cultivation of vegetables has mainly been con- fined to tomatoes, onions and sweet peppers. For tomatoes, the Marmande and Ronita varieties can be recommended in the light of experiments. The latter variety is very hardy, is resistant to nematodes and is the one that does best as a rainy-season crop. Water requirements and critical watering periods have been established. In the case of onions, experiments have furnished a wide range of varieties to be eaten fresh (Blanc de Soumarana). Experiments have shown that the best density both in terms of yield and in terms of keep- ing qualities has been 450,000 plants/ha. As for tomatoes, water requirements and critical watering periods have been established. For sweet peppers, two selected local types, viz. TP 16-61 and TP 20-61, with very spicy tasting fruit, low-growing and bright red in color, can produce more than 3 t/ha (dried peppers). 16. With respect to fodder crops, the best fodder species have been selected from varietal series and experiments for rainfed valley cultivation (early sorghum) and with irrigation (Pennisetum purpureum, Brachiaria ruzziensis) and for dune cultivation (late millet, early cowpea, hyacinth bean (dolique)). 17. Certain varieties of sugar cane are showing their superiority in cane yields (130 t/ha) and in sugar content (12%). These are NCO 310 and ANNEX II Page 5 B 43-62 as early varieties for the beginning of the season and CO 740 and NC 376 as mid and end of season varieties. The water consumption of sugar cane has been determined by nuclear methods. For a 12 months crop it is of the order of 22,000 m3/ha, i.ev 2,200 mm (including 500 mm of rainfall). Planting in trenches, by increasing the amount of soil available to the roots, permits economies in the use of water. The sprinkler irrigation parameters that provide for a most efficient use of irrigation water have also been established (irrigation period; class of sprinkler; pressure; water flow; mesh). The appendix to this Annex outlines the technical specifications for the irrigation of sugar cane at Tillabery, based on the results of 5 years' experimental work. 18. In the case of cotton, it has been shown that the water content of alluvial soils is generally adequate as a result of flood irrigation. In these soils nitrogen may become the limiting factor: increases in yield of between 2 and 3 quintals/lha can be obtained with an application of 50 kg/ha of urea. With respect to varieties, the HAR 444.2 hybrid has so far shown itself to be the best in terms of agricultural yields and technological superiority. ANNEX II APPENDIX SUMMARY OF SPECIFICATIONS FOR THE CULTIVATION OF SUGAR CANE UNDER IRRIGATION AT TILLABERY Planting period: October-November February-March Irrigation: - quantity 25,000 m3/ha/year - watering time 5pm - 9am Varieties: - initial period (November/December) NCO 310 - CO 775 - N 50/211 - middle period (January/February) NCO 376 - CO 740 - final period (March/May) CO 740 - NCO 376 - B 43/62 Fertilizer - first growth N: 100 kg/ha - P05: 80kg/- ha k2 0: 150 kg/ha - ratoons N: 100-130 kg/ha - K20: 150 kg/ha Risks to plant health Striga - culmiculous smut (charbon) Number of ratoon crops 5 Average yield in tons of cane per hectare (large-scale cultivation) 100-105 Industrial content of the cane (%) 13.5-14.0 Sugar extractable from the cane (%) 11.0-11.5 Yield in tons of extractable sugar per hectare 11-12 Start of processing period May 15 Close of processing period October 15 Duration of processing period 160-165 days Source: IRAT - Experimentation canne a sucre - Synthese (Sugar cane experiments summary), 1973 ANNEX III OFEDES AND THE PROBLEM OF WATER RESOURCES 1. The aim of the Niger Government water policy is to progressively meet the water needs of all utilizable territory, i.e. in the region south of the 300 mm isohyet. A program to provide a more effective water supply for some 2,150 villages of over 300 inhabitants was drawn up in 1965 by con- sultants with FED financing NEDECO. 2. The Office des Eaux du Sous-sol (OFEDES - Ground IWater Office) was established in May 1963 and placed under the aegis of the Ministry of Rural economy. Its principal roLe is the maintenance and operation of wells of all kinds in rural areas. It is represented in every Department in the country. This organization appears to be an efficient one, especially when it is borne in mind that the lack of maintenance of both structures and pumping facilities represents the major obstacle to the operation of wells in Africa. OFEDES maintains some 1,300 wells a year, visiting each well once every three years. OperatLng costs (personnel and fuel) and maintenance are charged to consumers, save in pastoral areas, where the State is fully re- sponsible for the operation of all wells. 3. OFEDES is also responsible for the manpower investment ("investissement humain") in wells, for which it undertakes the "underwater" excavation: some 150 wells are provided each year. It is estimated that the population con- tributes some 25% of the cost of this work (1970). The cost per linear meter is of the order of CFAF 20,,000 to 30,000. 4. Realizations include some 4,000 modern cemented wells serving 9,000 villages. A substantial part of this has been financed by FED over the past ten years (CFAF 2 to 3 million a well). 5. A four-year program (1973-76) provides for the construction by OFEDES of 200 to 225 wells a year in the Departments of Niamey, Dosso, Tahoua and (more especially) Maradi. It is expected to be financed under a series of bilateral and international aid agreements. ANNrEX IV Page I EXPORTS OF FRESII VEGETABLES: SONIPRIM - 1. European demand for vegetables is constantly increasing. In addition, consumers want to have throughout the year vegetables that were formerly not available in winter. Except for hothouse-grown vegetables--which rank as luxuries-- and early vegetables grow¢n under glass or plastic one or two months ahead of the main season, European production is unable to meet this demand from December 15 to April 15. The Sudan-Sahel region with its long dry season (November-March), in which the temperature is low enough (28-32' C) not to damage growing plants, is well placed to produce such vegetables under irriga- tion. It has the additional advantage of having inexpensive manpower avail- able for these labor-intensive crops (some 3,000 hours/ha). 2. The varieties concerned must be valuable enough to be able to carry the high cost of airfreight (some Ff 1.70/kg between Western Africa and Europe). The Prices fetched in the Rungis (Paris) market in France provide a basis for dividing these off-season varieties into three categories: - vegetables whose price is consistently above Ff 5/kg: 2/ strawqberries, fine and extra fine string beans; - vegetables whose price lies between Ff 3 and Ff 6/kg: eggplant (aubergine) and sweet peppers; - vegetables whose price lies between Ff 2 and Ff 4/kg: tomatoes and cucumbers. To these may be added melons, which grow very well in dry tropical regions but whose price very largely depends on quality. 3. SONIPRIMI was formed in December 1970 to exploit this opportunity of producing off-season vegetables. It is located at Goudel, a fewq kilometers from Niamey where it has irrigation facilities along the river. SONIPRIM is a mixed corporation, 80% of its capital of CFAF 20 million belonging to the Niger Government and 20% to a French importer. Under an agreement with the Government, SONIPRIM received an area of 62 hectares equipped with sprin- klers, which was increased to 87 hectares at the end of 1973 in return it is required to maintain and amortize these facilities, supervise the farmers undertaking the field work, purchase their output at a price set in advance, and package and market the produce. In addition to this irrigated area, SONIPRIM has a packaging station, offices, agricultural equipment and some vehicles. It has so far been receiving technical assistance from a BDPA 3/ (FAG) expert. 1/ Societe Nigerienne des Primeurs. 2/ Ff 1.00 = IJs$0.20. 3/ Bureau pour le Developpement de la Production Agricole (a French Govern- ment development agency). ANNEX IV Page 2 4. Production has expanded as follows, giving an average yield of about 10 tons/hectare: . 1971/72 360 tons . 1972/73 500 tons . 1973/74 700 tons . 1974/75 1,000 tons (estimated) Tile land produces two crops between September and April on an average of 2.6 crops per calendar year. The crops fall into the following categories: - export crops (Septemnber-April): beans, melons, sweet peppers; also eggplants; - rainy-season crops sown with an eye to rotation: principally maize, but also sorghum and sesame, with additional irrigation if necessary; - dry-season crops for the domestic market: onions, cabbage, water- melon. Tile program of export crops for 1973/74 is as follows: Area Estimated yield Marketable output (hectares) (tons/hectare) /1 (tons/hectare) /2 Melons 21 6 4.8 Beans 72 6 5.3 Sweet peppers 14 7 - G 6 - 7 Egg-plant 2 /1 Including local consumption. /2' 10 to 20% rejections at packaging stage. On the 67 hectares available at present some 200 farm workers are employed under the supervision of 3 instructors (moniteurs). These farm workers are neither wage-earners nor independent cultivators, either status being in- compatible with an operation of this kind. They are, in fact, piece-workers. Each farm worker is allotted a parcel of ten to thirteen ares 1/(1,000 to 1,300 m2 ) of each crop planted. The farm workers follow the cultivation program estab- lished by SONIPRIM, which undertakes certain field work, furnishes supplies, 1/ One hlectare = 100 ares. ANNLX IV Page 3 and purchases the output at a price fixed in advance, after acceptance and sorting at the packaging station. The most senior farm workers are established as independent settlers on parcels alloted to them. The annexed table shows production costs of some crops. The packaging station has 90 m3 of cold storage at 7° C. It is run by a station manager and uses seasonal labor (120 to 140 women) paid on a piece-work basis (CFAF 5/kg (packaged) for string beans) or by the hour. 5. Produce is exported to Ivory Coast, Brussels, Paris and Marseille. Average prices at Niamey are around CFAF 150/kg and at Le Bourget (Paris) CFAF 250/kg. 6. The operating accounts of the farm workers indicate that they are very well remunerated for their work, which is, moreover, not very demanding in the rainy season. To consider only the three major export crops, the accounts of a farmer working 12 ares (1,200 m2) of each crop are as follows: SONIPRIM Net Net In- Hours of Crop Purchase Total income Marketed output come from work on Price Cost /1 per kg kg/ha kg/12 ares 12 "ares" 12 "ares" Melons 50 24.60 .25.40 6,000 720 18,290 204 Beans 75 62.20 12.80 6,000 720 9,220 324 Sweet peppers 30 24.20 5.80 8,000 960 5,570 144 33,080 672 /1 Excluding labor. Each hour worked is paid almost CFAF 50, i.e. 1.7 times the SMIG (legal minimum wage). 7. SONIPRIM's operating accounts for 1972/73 should show a net profit (still modest in relation to previous cumulative losses, which have exceeded CFAF 44 million): ANNEX IV Page 4 Charges (CFAY) Proceeds (C.FAF) Depreciation 6,707,000 Operations (local personnel, office, finance costs, insurance, fuel, electric power, miscellaneous) 15,590,000 Net profit on export sales: string beans (135,000 kg X CFAF 35) 4,725,000 sweet peppers (113,000 kg X CFAF 27) 3,051,000 melons (255,000 kg X CFAF 37) 9,435,000 Net profit on local melon sales (rejects) (64,000 kg X CFAF 25) 1,600,000 other 4,000,000 Operating profit 513,600 22,811,000 22,811,000 8. Thus, after a diifficult start, SONIPRIM now seems to get its accounts balanced; however, it has not yet entirely solved certain problems: - the present status of the labor force is the outcome of other experiments, in which the field workers were either paid %Yages or were independent cultivators. The present approach appears to be a wise one. It might well lead to a production cooperative in order to blend into the general pattern of Niger rural development; - the cost of air freight (CFAF 85/kg between Niger and Europe) and the availability' of freight space from Niamey limit the expansion of SONIPRIM's activities; - sprinkler irrigation is undertaken every two days; it is a major item in the costs of production (20 to 25% of total costs excluding labor). Water consumption could be reduced by erecting windbreaks (oasis effect) and by using the drip dressing system; - it has proved difficult to find the 25 tlha of manure required to enrich the soil with organic matter. A link-up with the traditional livestock fattening operations being developed in the Niamey region (along the river) should provide a solution to this problem; ANNEX IV Page 5 the drying-out of harvested vegetables is a major factor in this season of the year (10 to 30 per cent); it is as important to combat this at the sorting stage in the field (under shelter) as well as at the packing station and in cold storage (humidification); there is still not even an insulated truck available for trans- portation from the packing station to the point of shipment, nor is there any refrigerated transit storage at Niamey airport; it is planned to provide such facilities (with FED financing); the system of sales on commission having proved a disaster, the adoption of firm selling prices should now restore SONIPRIM's negotiating power; European import duties (of the order of CFAF 25/kg since January 1, 1972) weight heavily on SONIPRIM's operations, since they are of the same order of magnitude as its profit. Some reduction in these duties should be negotiable with EEC. ANNEX IV Page 6 SONIPRIM - Fresh vegetable produce Produiction costs (CFAF/ha) Operating costs String beans Melons Sweet peppers (a) Soil preparation 1/2 sub-soiling 5 tractcor hours 3,750 3,750 3,750 2 x 1,500 1/2 double-furrow plowing 5 tractor hours x 1,50V 3,750 3,750 3,750 2 disc plowing 1.5 hours x 1,500 2,250 2,250 2,250 rotary plowing 3 hours x 1,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 Total (a) 14,250 14,250 14,250 (b) Sowing or planting drill-sowing (or planting) 2 tractor hours + labor 3,180 planting by hand 6,700 plants x 6 40,200 labor + 40,000 plants :X 0.50 27,500 (c) Treatments (dressings) CFAF 1,500 per hour of treatment 9,000 15,000 4,500 (d) Supplies Seeds 51,300 3,750 1,750 Fertilizer 10,000 20,000 50,000 Manure 10,000 12,500 12;500 Pesticides 7,800 20,250 6,300 Water 6,000 m3 x CFAF 8 48,000 6,500 7,200 Total (d) 117,100 109,000 128,150 (e) Amortization and miscellaneous 43,"072 43,072 43,072 Cost per hectare without labor (SONIPRIM services) 186,602 221,522 217,472 Labor 2,700 hours x CFAF 30 81,000 1,700 hours x l'FAF 30 51,000 1,200 hours x CFAF 30 36,000 Prime cost per hectare 267,602 272,522 253,472 Output marketed kg/h.a 3,000 9,000 9,000 Total cost in CFAF/kg 67 30 28 Source: SONIPRIM ANNEX IV Page 7 SONIPRIM - Fresh vegetable produce Costs of export packaging and marketing (CFAF/kg) String beans Melons Sweet peppers Operating costs (a) Purchases 10% sorting losses 75 + 8 83 50 + 5 55 30 + 3 33 (b) Packaging 11 7 9 (c) Crating and labeling 30 52 25 (d) Intermediate costs Transport from field to packing station 2 Cold storage 3 Handling 2 Transport to airport 3 Transit 2 12 12 12 12 (e) Export duties - Niamey 5 5 5 (f) Air transport Niamey - Europe (freight CFAF 85/kg) 98 (1 kg + 0.15 kg box) x 85 7.10 1/6 x (6 kg + 0.6 kg crate + 0.5 kg breakages) x 85 94 (1 kg + 0.1 kg box x 85) (g) Commission (14%); selling costs in Europe (9%) Average selling price CFAF 350 - 350 x 0.23 81 CFAF 350 - 350 x 0.23 81 CFAF 250 - 350 x 0.18 45 Total cost (including marketing) 315 313 223 Average selling price 350 350 250 SONIPRIM profit 35 37 27 Source: SONIPRIM ANNEX V Page 1 BADEGUICHERI PROJECT 1. The Badeguicheri. Valley is located in the region usually known as Ader-Doutchi-Maggi (ADM), for which a 15-year development program was pre- pared in 1965. In view of the size of the program and the impossibility of developing the entire ADM region, it had been decided to postpone the develop- ment of the Badeguicheri V'alley until a later stage. Meanwhile studies have been prepared by Consultarnts - ORSTOM and SOGETHA - concerning the introduc- tion of irrigated farming into the valley. The justifications for the present project are various. The main one is that to ensure an adequate return on the development of the valley, there must first be an improvement in cultivation methods. There are others that arise out of the urgent problems the area is now facing, such as overpopulation, shortage of land, severe erosion and in- adequate utilization of the agricultural potential of fertile land in the valley. 2. The aim of the Badeguicheri project is therefore: (i) to increase the total output of cereals, which at present is barely sufficient to cover local food requirements in an average year; (ii) to increase cotton production in order to raise the cash earnings of the farmers; and (iii) to protect and ultimately restore the soil through anti-erosion measures. 3. The principal characteristics of the Badeguicheri Valley and the project are the following: - an area of 670 km2 fed by a catchment area of 1,415 km2; - tracks barely passable in the rainy season; - average rainfall 450 mm/year over 3 to 4 months; - the valley soils, of alluvial origin, are extremely fertile, while on the tablelands overlooking the valley soils are of low fertility; - area covered by the project: 8,100 hectares of valley land; 3,900 hectares of table land; - total population affected by the project: 30,700 (in 1969) with a 2.6Z estimated growth rate; - during the dry sf!ason each year, one third of the male working popu- lation leaves for countries on the coast. - crops grown are: AŽiNE.X v Page 2 (a) in the rainy season: millet, sorghum and cotton (the last (mentioned) only recently introduced); (b) in the dry season, under irrigation: onions, tomatoes, tobacco and others; - the valley is subject to severe and progressive erosion with the threat of rapid soil deterioration if counter-measures are not taken. 4. The above seems to indicate that the land is being overworked since land lying fallow has practically disappeared. Due tc the population growth rate and the effects of erosion a critical situation may soon emerge, if only in terms of the food supply. Agricultural research has, however, shown that: - yields of food and vegetable crops can be substantially increased; - cotton yields can at least be doubled; - measures against erosion can be effective. 5. The present project has the following components: - action to increase yields of cereals, vegetable crops and cotton; - action to protect and restore the soils (3,000 hectares); - action to develop rural roads (100 km of dirt roads) to improve communication and transportation. The duration of the project is 4 years starting April 1972. Its cost is CFAF 345 million, of which CFAF 315 million is being financed by FED (invest- ments and operations) and CFAF 30 million by the Niger Government (local personnel). 6. Extension and application of modern techniques in the cultivation of cereals, cotton and vegetables should succeed, whether the assumptions made are conservative or optimistic, in creating substantial production sur- pluses by the 6th year. ANNEX V Page 4 the project will be covered by additional revenues arising out of the pro- ject. 1/ 8. At the end of the first season (early 1973), the operation had gotten off to a good start --1,437 ha of cotton (of which 323 had been treat- ed) produced 1,170 tons of seed cotton (814 kg/ha); soil protection and res- toration measures had begun on the Raha site, where the target of 400 ha was achieved, though at a higher than estimated cost (CFAF 21,100/ha). Also, the project is experiencing difficulties in recruiting staff, both local and ex- patriate. 1/ Source: Ministry of Rural Economy + IBRD 1971. The IBRD mission does not necessarily confirm these figures although they appear reasonable for this kind of project. ANNEX VI Page 1 RURAL DEVELOFNENTI PROJECT FOR THE ZINDFR REGION 1/ 1. -The long-term project of integrated rural development in the Zinder region is the first so-called productivity operation launched in Niger. It affects only the 3 southern Arrondissements of the Department (Mirria, Mata- meye, Magaria), hence its name of "3M' project. The project area is typical Niger groundnut country, straddling the 600 mm isohyet. With an area of 28,000 km2, it has a population (including the towm of Zinder) of 570,000, i.e. three-fourths of the population of the Department. There are 120,000 farms cultivating 611,000 hectares. The average farm grows the following crops on some 5 ha.: - cereals: 2.9 ha. - cowpeas (niebe): 1.3 ha. - groundnuts: 1.8 ha. Cash income is derived from groundnuts. 2. The aim of the project is to combat extensive methods of cultivation and the consequential reduction of agricultural incomes. It is conceived in three successive phases of agricultural intensification (food and commercial crops) with a view to an increase in yields and the maintenance or restora- tion of soil fertility; t:he development of cattle fattening and, finally, the establishment of forest plantations for firewood. It was initially planned that the first phase would cover 6 years, but this has now been reduced to 4. The technical program of the first phase provides specifically for: - an agricultural, program based on the progressive dissemilation of established techniques (for groundnuts: fungicides, selected seeds, seed density, weeding, corrective fertilizer treatment, maintenance dressing); - an infrastructure program: 55 kilometers of rural feeder roads; 50 cemented wells for village water supply (to be built ulth manpower furnished by OFEDES); - organization of the farmers; - experimental work and trials in preparation of the subsequent phases (introduction of cattle fattening and firewood plantations). 1/ Sources: Project 3M, (Commissariat General au Developpement - July 1971) and UNCC. ANNEX VI Page 2 3. For the purposes of this program the project area has been divided into three zones that are relatively homogeneous in terms of population den- sity, growth pattern, and saturation and degree of exhaustion of the soil. In each of these zones the typical farm must evolve gradually, both in its rota- tion techniques (areas devoted to various crops) and in its cultivation, methods. The following table shows a typical farm in zone I at the outset and at the end (sixth year) of the development period: Area in hectares Yield Production Gross proceeds (kg/ha) in kg in CFAF 1/ Traditional farming Cereals 2.6 460 1,196 11,960 Groundnuts 2.1 485 1,018 14,250 26,210 Intensive farming Cereals 2 1,500 3,000 30,000 Groundnuts 2 1,500 3,000 42,000 72,000 Supplies, credit and marketing are ensured through the cooperatives. At the farm level gross proceeds would be tripled and agricultural income doubled. Total production should increase as follows (in years of "normal" weather): Year 0 Year 4 Cereals 161,000 tons 177,000 tons Groundnuts (in shell) 116,000 tons 139,000 tons 4. The zone is currently organized into 43 farming cooperatives (418 GMVs (Groupements Mutualistes Villageois) grouped in 9 ALCs (Associations Locales de Cooperatives). 1/ At 1971 prices. ANNEX VI Page 3 The cooperative organization will be gradually expanded and will develop its own supervisory structure: - at the GMV (village) level: 1 farmer-demonstrator; - for each cooperative: extension assistant responsible for basic literacy and ior training in new techniques. Recruited from amongst the farmer-demaonstrators and paid CFAF 5,000 per month, he will be responsible for the area covered by a single cooperative, i.e. an average of 10 villages, 3,000 people and 500 farms. The operational structure itself will comprise: - at the ALC level, a team of officials from UNCC and from the agri- cultural, extension and basic literacy services, under the super- vision of a coordinator coopted for the purpose, and under UNCC management; - a similar teau' at the arrondissement level; - at the project level, the project manager will be the UNCC depart- mental representative. He will be assisted by: 1 deputy responsible for on-farm extension services; 1 agricultural instructor; 1 agricultural economist. UNCC is responsible for the project under the terms of an agreement-made with MER (Ministere de l'Economie Rurale). Officials from other services are, how- ever, not detached to bul: merely placed at UNCC's disposal as part of an "inte- grated operation". 5. The cost of the first phase of 4 years will amount to CFAF 826 million, of which (end oij1972) CFAF 521 million is to be financed by a grant from FED (European Development Fund) covering: - soil studies; - support missions; - theoretical and practical training; - facilities for supervisory personnel; - corrective fertilizer treatment; - construction of rural roads and wells; ANNIŽY v Page 4 - construction and improvement of buildings. The Niger Government's contribution of CFAF 305 million covers the cost of supervisory personnel, maintenance costs and an increasing part of operating costs. No conclusions-can be drawn from this project as '1973 has been the start-up period. ANNEX VII P'age 1 MARADI INTEGRATED RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1/ 1. With some 20% of the rural population, almost 20% of the cultivated area, and accounting for about 20% of cereal and 50% of groundnut production, the Department of Maradi is one of the main agricultural regions of Niger. Together with the neighboring Department of Zinder it produces 90% of total groundnut output. As in the Department of Zinder, the main problem is presented by extensive farming methlods resulting in poor utilization of inputs, relative- ly inefficient cultivation methods, and very inadequate on-farm extension and agricultural credit faci:Lities. The project, covering a period of five years (1974/75 to 1978/79), is designed primarily to introduce the methods needed to raise yields and production, without increasing cultivated area, which already represents a large proportion of the cultivable potential. Other important components such as animal husbandry, irrigation, training, health, and roads, together with the acceleration of the cooperative movement, make this project potentially by far the most important integrated rural develop- ment project in Niger. 2. The project would cover the entire Department, although the develop- ment of rainfed crops is likely, of course, to be limited to the north by the 350 mm isohyet, the southern fringe of the region having a rainfall of 650 mm in normal years. The scheme would affect 500,000 people (90% of the popula- tion of the Department, i.e. 80,000 families or farms, distributed among 700 villages and cultivating 430,000 hectares. The cooperatives have expanded their role in the marketing of groundnuts: there are now a total of 50 co- operatives grouped in 13 ALCs. 2/ For the purposes of the agricultural part of the project the region has been divided into four roughly homogeneous zones: - North: sandy dune soils with rainfall below 500 mm; - South: sandy dune soils with rainfall exceeding 500 mm; - The goulbis: valleys with seasonal washes and clay soils; groundwater tabLe; (the average farm in these valleys is smaller with 3.1;0 ha against an average of 5.40 ha); - Danissa: the best watered region, in the south, in which most cotton-growing is concentrated. 3. The operational program has 10 components: (i) continued development of rainfed crops through an increase in yields to be obtained by the adoption of technical methods well-tried in the region. As in other so-called productivity operations based on rainfed crops, any projection of resuLts should incorporate a number of fixed margins or progress ratios: 1/ The following is a summary of the project status in January 1974 and does not imply approval by the Government or IDA in this or any other form. 2/ Associations Locales de Cooperatives. ANNEX VII Page 2 (a) the potential yield obtainable under normal soil and climatic conditions through correct application of cultivation methods (based on research); i.e. the margin of increase in relation to traditional yields; (b) the adjustment factor to be applied to this margin in order to obtain the margin that can reasonably be expected in the local agricultural context: this margin will increase as the program develops (in step) with the improvement of the farmers' technical slcills; (c) the proportion of the total number of farms that will adopt modern techniques; analysis of a rural population shows that initially a small group of farmers, naturally responsive to new ideas, can very rapidly be mobilized; a much larger number will be mobilized progressively, especially by the example of the success of the first group; lastly, for various reasons, a third group (some 30 to 50%) is, in practice, almost wholly unresponsive and represents wastage. In addition, different new ideas may be more or less difficult to introduce and therefore adopted more or less rapidly, producing final rates of acceptance varying from very high to very low (90% to 2%); (d) during the implementation period of the project, the percentage of cultivated area benefitting from the new techniques will graphi- cally have the form of an S-curve, following the acceptance pat- tern described above, since farmers who have only recently been won over to new methods apply them only gradually to the total area they cultivate. In the case of Maradi, the combined effect of these factors should have the following impact on the output development of the principal rainfed crops: Initial year Final year of program End of maturation period Crop 1974/75 1978/79 1982/83 (tons) (tons) (Percentage (tons) (Percentage increase increase 79/74) 83/74) Sorghum + millet 137,000 157,000 15 175,000 28 Groundnuts 69,000 92,000 33 115,000 67 Cowpeas (niebe) - 1,600 100 1,600 100 Cotton 300 1,500 500 1,800 600 ANTEX VII Page 3 Extension services as well as supplies of inputs (particularly fertilizers with a 50% subsidy), credit and marketing will be provided by an operational machinery based on the expansion of the cooperative structure: Level Personnel Personnel at end of program (year 5) Cooperative 1 extension officer for every 3 villages 475 ALC 1 ALC chief plus two assistants (extension services, basic literacy, bookkeeping) 25 + 50 Arrondissement 1 chief of arrondissement 6 Project (Maradi) 1 project director; 1 agronomist; 1 assistant 2 On completion oE the project its basic personnel (extension personnel) will be taken over by the cooperatives: the Government will merely be charged with the recurrent cost of supervisory personnel. (ii) irrigated crops will be developed in the goulbis through the utilization of groundwater for the irrigation of riverside terraces, thus :Leaving the goulbi lands proper to their present crops or reserv:Lng their future development to possible irriga- tion schemes on a larger scale. Within a radius of 10 to 15 km around Maradi, 'O wells will be dug and equipped with electrical pumps to be supplied with power from Maradi. Each pumping unit will be capable of irrigating a nucleus of 10 ha, divided among 20 families. Each family lot of 0.50 ha will be divided into two parts of 25 ares, one being devoted to cotton, and the other to sorghum in the rainy season (possibly supplemented by :Lrriga- tion), and to on!ions, tomatoes and tobacco in the dry season. The tomatoes prciduced will help to supply a tomato concentrate factory projected for Maradi. These 500 ha of irrigated land are expected to produce the following crops by the fifth year: ANTNEX VII Page 4 Tons Cotton 700 Sorghum 800 Tomatoes 2,700 Onions 3,100 Tobacco 50 The development of these irrigated crops is to be supervised by a special team made up of one agricultural engineer and 10 exten- sion agents. (iii) concerning animal husbandry, the project restricts itself to ac- celerating the rate of recovery of the herd, estimated at 348,000 head of cattle in 1973, through more effective health protection and better conditions for cattle movements (transhumance), i.e. additional vaccination facilities; drovers' trails; grazing re- serves. No fattening of stock on the irrigated nuclei is planned, except on an experimental basis. The size of the herd and sales proceeds (milk, and especially meat at an estimated price of CFAF 70 or 80/kg live weight) are expected to be the following: Program year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-20 Number of cattle (thou- sands) 360 379 401 420 433 443 450 467 Proceeds of sales (CFAF million) - 967 1,091 1,356 1,540 1,743 1,729 1,756 1,954 (iv) the project will itself realize a number of subsidiary measures: - seed production (groundnuts); the project will be responsible for the seed multiplication plan and will itself undertake the MI, M2 and M3 multiplications; - associated experiments on about 10 pilot-farms; ANNEX VII Page 5 - evaluation of results through continuing surveys based on statis- tical analysis with random sampling; - training of ext:ension personnel at the Maradi CFJA (Centre de Formation des Jeunes Agriculteurs) converted for this purpose; refresher trairning of officials responsible for project Super- vision; - training of village blacksmiths (60 a year). (v) the development of the cooperative structure will focus on the formation and equipment of 12 new ALCs; (vi) special importance will be attached to the training of young farmers (one center to each ALC), rural leaders (7,000), members of coopera- tives (3,500), and supervisory personnel for cooperatives (4,000). 14,000 persons will receive basic literacy training (one center to every three villages); (vii) rural roads will be built to open up the southwestern region (75 km of roads plus one bridge); (viii) three hectares of trees for firewood will be planted for each village, i.e. 2,000 ha in all; (ix) in the health fLeld, first-aid personnel, midwives, and women's consciousness-raising agents ("animatrices feminines") will be trained to double their present number, four dispensaries will be built with Govelnment budget financing; (x) to ensure adequate agricultural credit, the project will have a working capital of US$1,400,000 deposited in an account opened in its name at BDPI. 1/ Credit is based on joint and several recipro- cal guarantees at the cooperatives level. 4. For rainfed crops the impact of extension activities is projected on the basis of a number of assumptions based on previous experience: The yields L:,at can be obtained by farmers through the successive introduction of new techniques are estimated as follows (in kg/ha) for the worth (of isoyet 600 mm) and the south of 1:he project area: 1/ Banque de Developpement de le Republique du Niger. ANNEX VII Page 6 Groundnuts Millet Type of technique used North South North South Traditional technique 400 500 400 500 Fungicides 450 550 425 525 plus selected seeds 550 700 - - plus seed density 800 950 - - plus fertilizer 950 1,150 - - plus improved varieties - - 500 650 plus soil preparation - - 700 850 plus carry-over effects of fertilizer: (Ist year) - - 900 1,100 (2nd year) - - 800 1,100 Furthermore, the effective application of the new methods, expressed as a percentage of the number of farmers reached by extension services in year 1, is estimated to develop in the following way during the subsequent 5 years, after which no further progress is expected: Groundnuts Program year 1 2 3 4 5 Category Fungicides 50 65 75 85 90 plus selected seeds 10 20 30 45 60 plus seed density 5 10 20 35 50 plus fertilizer (North) 5 10 15 20 25 plus fertilizer (South) 5 15 20 25 30 ANNEX VII Page 7 Millet and Sorghum Program year Type of technique used 1 2 3 4 5 Fungicides 15 25 40 55 75 plus selected seeds - 5 10 20 35 plus carry-over effect of fertilizers (North) - 5 10 15 20 (South + goulbi) - 5 15 2n 25 plus cultivation with animal traction - 1 2 3 5 From this standpoint the operation can be divided into two phases, one of investment (years 1-5) and one of maturation (years 6-10), at the end of which the increased yields estimated above will have been fully realized. It is further assumed that all normally cultivable land is occupied and that the area under cultivation and the ratio of cereals to groundnuts remain unchanged. Moreover, the primary aim of the project is to maximize output of rainfed crops, without regard to changes in rural employment resulting from a population increase of more than 20% in the course of the (full) duration of the project (10 years). 5. The project would be implemented by an ad hoc agency, e.g. an "Organisme de Developpement Rural de Maradi" (ODRM) under the supervision of the Ministry of Rural Economy, which is to integrate the functions and personnel of the four Government services currently active in the field (Agriculture, UNCC, Animation rurale and Promotion Humaine). The road, forest, health and livestock components of the project would be the respon- sibility of the competent liger authorities based on a work program agree- ment with the Maradi agency; all other components will be the direct respon- sibility of the project. Project management and supervisory services would be reinforced by 6 permanent expatriate technical assistants recruited in- dividually: 1 agricultural adviser, 1 chief of irrigal:ion and cotton programs, 1 agricultural engineer in charge of the seed multiplication unit, 1 agronomist responsible for associated research, 1 expert to assist: the director of training. 6. The project cost would amount to about US$16.5 million (CFAF 4 billion), of which US$3.5 million for contingencies and US$13 million for investment or development expenditures, broken down as follows: ANNEX VIII Page 8 in US$ thousands Project headquarters 1,000 Rainfed crops 2,400 Irrigation 800 Animal husbandry 1,100 Research - seed production 500 Training of extension personnel 500 Training of village blacksmiths 90 Location of cooperatives 1,200 Training - basic literacy 2,300 Roads 800 Forests 300 Health 300 Credit funds (working capital) 1,400 Consultants 400 Total 13,000 It is estimated that after the investment period, representing the first five years, recurrent expenditures in each subsequent year will amount to CFAP 230 million (personnel and operating costs of ODRM and of the technical or co- operatives staff for which the cooperatives themselves are not assuming re- sponsibility), to which should be added a subsidy for insecticides and fer- tilizers rising from CFAF 165 million in year 6 to CFAF 295 rallion in year 10. 7. The economic appraisal of the project, covering a 10-year period, shows an economic internal rate of return of the order of 20%, (including 20-30% for rainfed crops, 50% for animal husbandry and 30% for irrigated crops). ANNEX VIII Page 1 RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF DOSSO 1. In recent years the Department of Dosso has been the subject of a number of studies and experiments: - 1967/70 - UNDP/FAO - Development study for the Dallol Maouri - MER 1/ Project, principally involving hydrogeological surveys; - 1970/72/76 - UNDP/FA0) - Pilot agricultural development project in the Dallol Maouri. At fLrst oriented toward irrigated cultivation in the south, the project was subsequently widened to include rainfed crops in the north (three 'Locations in all, at considerable distances from one another, in the north and south, together with the Bengou Experi- mental Center, which was created to determine the most effective methods of developing the southern marshlands); - 1971 - rural developmient project for the Department of Dosso; (prepara- tory document from CCD); 2/ - 1972 - aerial survey (1/20,000) followed by photo-interpretation, as part of the first phase of the project; - 1972/73 - agricultural sample survey - MER - Division of Statistics. 2. The Department of Dosso (31,000 km2; 503,000 inhabitants; 5 arrondissements) is a vast tableland of dune soils broken by dallols (dry valleys), of which the largest is the Dallol Maouri, stretching between the 400 mm isohyet in the north and the 850-900 mm isohyet in the south. Dosso's productive resources consist of some 63,000 farms growing the following crops on a total area of 573,000 ha: millet; sorghum 482,000 ha groundnuts 42,000 ha cowpeas-niebe (monoculture) 15,000 ha cotton (Gaya) 375 ha 1/ Ministere de l'Economie Rurale. 2/ Commissariat General au Developpement. ANNEX VIII Page 2 The average farm comprises 7.9 individuals (3 of whom are actively engaged in farming) and cultivates 9.1 ha as follows: Cereals 7.6 ha groundnuts 0.7 ha miscellaneous 0.8 ha 3. An analysis of the studies made shows that, as in most of Niger ts other agricultural regions, the Dosso area is characterized by: - a shortage of food supplies as a result of population growth and falling yields; - an expansion of cultivated area associated with an exhaustion of soils; - a steady fall in the production of groundnuts; - a weak organization of extension services. 4. For these reasons the project proposes, as in the case of the Department of Zinder, to initiate the following corrective measures: - intensification of food crop production; - intensification together with limited area expansion of cash crops; - regeneration of exhausted soils; - introduction of mixed farming, primarily with a view to maintaining soil fertility and developing traditional livestock fattening; - planting of trees for firewood; - organization of farmers and training of local supervisory personnel. For the purposes of the project the Departmeut is to be divided into 30 basic action and program zones (ZEAPs = Zones elementaires d'action et de program- mation). The ZEAP would represent the potential sphere of activity of a multidisciplinary team providing basic technical supervisory services. It would foreshadow the future cooperative structure. The ZEAP should be a natural homogeneous micro-region of 10,000 to 20,000 inhabitants, having a village center with either a traditional or a modern market as its focal point. The division of the region into ZEAPs should also respect administra- tive or traditional boundaries. The ZEAP would therefore in effect corres- pond to the area of responsibility of a future ALC. The method of operation would be the same as that practiced in the Zinder project, i.e. integrated activities with UNCC management and responsibility. ANNEX VIII Page 3 5. A first stage covering six years and 30 ZEAPs was started with FAC financing in 1972. It is divided into two phases: - an initial experimental phase extending over two crop years (1973 and 1974) encompassing 14 ZEAPs; - a second phase of expansion and formation of the remaining ZEAPs. The first phase comprises: (a) Studies aimed at obtaining a better understanding of socio-economic con- ditions in the Department. The basic data will be derived from a study of the aerial photographs (1/20,000) taken in September 1972, supplemented by surveys; (b) The training of a farming elite; (c) Various measures to raise productivity: - a general campaign (promoting non-sophisticated methods) to improve pro- duction of food crops; - specific measures, more intensive in character: development of the cow- pea (niebe) in monoculture in the north; introduction of improved ground- nut varieties; development of cotton in the south; experiments in animal husbandry (Maradi-Sokoto goats, poultry-raising, cattle-fattening). The total FAC grant amounts to CFAF 428 million, of which CFAF 145 million for the first phase (CFAF $0 million for the aerial survey and photo- interpretation). 6. The southern region (Gaya) appears to be particularly attractive due to its higher rainfall (700-850 mm) and the availability of abundant and readily exploitable groundwater said to provide a total discharge of 5 m3/sec, which would warrant unit discharge rates of more than 50 I/sec. It would therefore be sufficient to irrigate 15,000 to 20,000 ha and would also permit the reclamation of sekveral thousand hectares through marsh drainage. Many problems still remain, such as the questions of water quality and soil perme- ability, price of energy etc. ANNEX IX Page 1 FEEDLOT FATTENING USING IRRIGATED FODDER CROPS: THE TIAGUIRIRE PROJECT 1. As a result of the experiments and full-scale trials conducted in recent years at Kirkissoye, and of the slow, late, but nevertheless real, upward trend of meat prices, intensive cattle fattening based on forage grown under irrigation, without the use of supplementary feed, appears to be economically feasible. The Tiaguirire project is in a way the "practical application" of the methods developed. The Tiaguirire depression is situated 40 km downstream from Niamey; it is a long, narrow strip a few hundred meters wide of which an area of 300 hectares can easily be reclaimed; it is at pre- sent used as pasture when the water level of the river is at its lowest. 2. Plant production would take the form of an irrigated crop of barn- yard millet (Echinochloa stagnia), renewed by transplanting every 4 years and producing 150 to 180 tons of green fodder or 25 to 30 tons of dry matter per hectare. The water requirements of the plant are 15,400 m3 per hectare, or (assuming a 65% efficiency) 23,600 m3 from the pumping station. If 5,600 m3 rain water are deducted, a total of 18,000 m3 per hectare needs to be pumped annually. In short, the annual cost of the crop is as follows: CFAF/ha - operations (plowing, harrowing, manure spreading) 10 tractor hours x CFAF 750 (excluding labor) 7,500 - fertilizer 18,000 - irrigation 18,000 m3 x CFAF 2 36,000 - transplanting, 20 days x CFAF 200 x 1/4 1,000 62,500 3. Animal production is planned on the basis of the following con- sumption figures established for a daily weight gain (without supplementary feed) of 600 g and for varying fattening periods: ANNEX IX Page 2 Fattening period 85 days 165 days 250 days Live weight of lean animals on entry (kg) 300 250 200 Average daily consumption of dry matter (kg) 6.6 6.3 6.0 Total consumption of dry matter per animal (kg) 620 1,150 1,650 Number of animals fattened per hectare during the year: Yield = 25 t/ha dry matter 40 21 15 Yield = 30 t/ha dry matter 48 26 18 Live weight of fat animals (kg) 350 350 350 Slaughtering weight ratio 53% 53% 53% Carcass weight 185 185 185 Requirements to feed and care for the animals would be: - for every 60 head, 1 laborer (CFAF 6,000/month) to cut the fodder; - for every 60 head, 1 laborer to collect the fodder and transport it to the feedlots with an animal drawn cart; - for every 30 head, 1 herdsman (CFAF 6,000/month) to feed, water, care for, and clean the animals. 4. The irrigated part of the project would consist solely of an embank- ment along the river; pumping station (propeller pumps) with an output of 2 liters/s/ha, an irrigation and drainage network (0.5 to 1 ha checks, roughly leveled) and 2 sets of mobiLe motor-driven drainage pumps (1 liter/s/ha). For 300 hectares, the cost of these works, on the basis of CFAF 700,000/ha, is estimated at CFAF 210 miLlion. 5. The animals will be kept in feedlots, in batches of 10 (100 m2 of fenced area, of which 10 m2 under cover) arranged in feedlot units of 100 to 200 head. The cost per animal of these buildings amounts to CFAF 27,000 if they are of the modern type (metal frame + corrugated iron roof, with use- ful life of 15 years) or CFAF 9,000 if they are of the traditional type (palm frame and thatch, with a useful life of 5 years). The annual depreciation charge per head of cattle is CFAF 1,800 in both cases. ANNEX IX Page 3 6. The total investment, for a first phase of 150 hectares, is esti- mated as follows: In thousands of CFAF Irrigated agriculture project + access road 135,000 - Livestock Stockraising equipment: - fancing 1,200 - administrative buildings 18,000 - animal quarters (traditional) 15,300 - water supply 6,500 - technical facilities (weighing scales, vaccination chute, dip) 3,500 - agricultural equipment 9,500 - service vehicle 1,200 - shed (storage, garage) 6,000 - miscellaneous, contingencies: 5% 3,100 64,300 64,300 Total 199,300 7. The intention is to buy lean cattle at CFAF 65/kg live-weight for an animal of 200 to 250 kg, and CFAF 70/kg for one of 300 kg. This price is CFAF 5/kg higher than the highest quotations prevailing on the Ayorou market. The expected selling price is CFAF 85/kg live weight, delivered at the Niamey slaughterhouse; the gross proceeds of the sale of a 350 kg animal will therefore be CFAF 29,750. These prices are lower than the (apparently more realistic) prices adopted by SEDES in the project for the modernization of the pastoral zone: young animals (140 kg) entering the backgrounding ranch, CFAF 80/kg live-weight, and animals leaving the ranch (that is, on being sold to the feedlot), CFAF 100/kg live-weight. 8. The study of the project (definite area, final engineering, type of operation - with hired labor or settlers, agency in charge of the project) is not sufficiently advanced to allow a tentative operating account to be established and an economic evaluation to be made. However, Germany (Federal Republic) has already made a commitment to finance this project. ANNEX X Page 1 IRRIGATION DEVIELOPMENT IN THE RIVER NIGER DEPRESSIONS 1. The development of the depressions along the river has been in pro- gress for about fifteen years, with varying degrees of success. By 1973, almost 2,500 ha had been reclaimed under about twenty projects. A number of conclusions can be drawn from this rather extensive experience. 1/ 2. The general water conditions are summarized in the attached diagram which shows the time-lag between the rainy season (June-October) and the river water level (lowest level in July, highest level in February). Accordingly there are two rice-growing seasons: - rainy-season crop (June 10 - November 10); - dry-season crop (December 10 - May 10). 3. Because of their geomorphological situation in the main river bed, the depressions are, as a rule, small (average = 300 ha), elongated, and some- times have a difficult microrelief. The basis of reclamation is embanking, which protects the rice fields against excess flood water and rice-eating fish, and permits gravity irrigation. Starting from this basic infrastructure, improvements can be added: - to the irrigation area itself, in order to better regulate the water layer on the rice fields: contour levees, or leveled lots; - to water control: addition of pumping equipment, which makes it possible to compensate for the lack of rain in the rainy season and of flood water in the dry season. 4. In Niger, the following typology has been adopted: Type A - Natural flooding Al - Tradiitional rice-growing: naturally flooded areas, subject to the vagaries of rainfall and flood, A2 - Ditto., but with a floodable dike provided with a fish screen (small depressions). 1/ This note is primarily based on information supplied by the Gen:Le Rural (GR - Rural Engineerintg Service) and UNCC. ANNEX 'C Page 2 Type B - Uncontrolled flooding B1 - Nionfloodable dike provided with intake and outlet structures. Water layer: 0-1.70 m; B2 - Uncontrolled flooding on terraces: Ditto, but with internal layout in terraces with levees 0.60 m to 0.80 m high, limiting the water layer on each terrace to 0.20 - 0.70 m. Irrigation and drainage canals link the terraces to the intake and outlet works. Type C - Controlled flooding Cl - Nonfloodable dike and intake and outlet works, supplemented by auxiliary pumping equipment; C2 - Controlled flooding on terraces: Ditto, but with internal layout in terraces limiting the water layer to 0.20 - 0.50 m. Type D - Artificial flooding Dl - Nonfloodable dike with structures, auxiliary pumping equipment, internal layout in leveled plots limiting the water layer 0.10 - 0.20 m. Complete irrigation and drainage network; D2 - Ditto, but the irrigation canals are replaced by low-pressure pipes. Each type of arrangement can be converted into a more sophisti- cated one. 5. Very general equipment standards have been established by Genie Rural. The standards used in the Niamey region are set forth below. They would have to be adjusted for the Tillabery region (upstream, further north), or for the Gaya region (downstream, further south). (a) Since at Niamey, evaporation varies from 2.2 to 8.5 mm a day, and infiltration is estimated at 0.5 mm/day, water requirements have been evaluated as follows for the leveled plots (type D), in which there are no excess layers of water due to irregularities of relief. ANNEX X Page 3 Rainy-season rice: June 10/July 5 (filling 6 mm/day + maintenance) ...... 285 mm July 5/September 30 (sufficient rainfall - reserve) .... 50 mm October 1 - 31 (maintenance) ...... 155 mm November 1-10 (waintenance) ...... 62 mm Water requirements of the irrigation unit ...... 552 mm Water requirements at the pumping station 552 = 690 nun 0.8 3 = 6,900 m /Iha Dry-season rice: December 10 - June 4 (filling 6 mm/day + maintenance) .. 308 mm June 5 - June 31 (maintenance) ...... 186 mm February 1 - August 30 (maintenance) ...... 773 mm May 1 - 10 (maintenance) ...... 78 nmm Water requirements of the irrigation unit space ...... 1,345 mm Water requirements at the pumping station 1,345 = 1,681 mm 0.8 3 = 16,800 m /ha These total requirements of 6,900 + 16,800 = 23,700 m3 /ha are a maximum, because: - in theory, rainy-season irrigation is unnecessary (-500 m /ha); - with transpLanting, the period of vegetative growth of the D 52-37 variety (5 months in the rainy season, a little longer in the dry season) must be reduced by the length of stay (25 days) in the nursery (approximately: -1,500 m3/ha x 2); on the other hand, the nursery beds must be irrigated, but they colter only 3 - 4 ares; - for dry harvesting, irrigation can be suspended three weeks before the rice is cut in order to allow the plots to dry out by evaporation (approximately: -1,500 m3/ha x 2); - varieties with a shorter growing cycle (type IR, or nybrids obtained frcm IR) would make it possible to shorten the period of vegetative growth by about twenty days 1/ (approx- imately 1,200 m3/ha + 1,750 m /ha = approximately: -3,000 m3/ha). / Unfortunately the IR varieties are just as sensitive to cold as the D 52-37. Ideally, the D 52-37 should be adopted in the dry season and IR in the rainy season. But there would be a danger of their being mixed. ANNEX X Page 4 (b) The discharge of the pumps is determined by the most unfavorable situation possible which occurs in June when the water level of the river is exceptionally low and iz 58 re is no rain. Water requirements from June 10 to 30 are = 2,950 m3/ha, or fifteen hours of pumping a day (2 x 8 hurs less 1 hour break) or a continuous discharge of: 20 1 = 2.8 liters/s/ha. 20 15 X3.6 The exceptionally minimum water level (1 year out of 5) corresponds to the reading + 0.90 on the Niamey gauge. Maximum dynamic head: Delivery head 5.40 - 0.90 = 4.50 Lost head 1.50 6.00 m Motor power 2.8 x 6 = 0.45 hp 75 x 0.5 Installed power 0.45 x 1.3 = 0.60 hp/ha (c) The dimensions of the canals are also determined by conditions in the least favorable month which in this case is December, since evaporation is then greater than in June. But since the river is at its highest level at that time, the delivery head is reduced by 3 m and the 2.8 liters/s pump will give more than 4 liters/s; this month therefore does not limit the choice Sf1g5mps. Water requirements between December 10 and 31 are _ = 3,200 m3/ha, o 28ohours if pumping a day, giving a con°inuous discharge of x .28liter/s/ha. 21 x15 x 3.6 Thus, the canals are dimensioned like the pumps. 6. The cost of the irrigation works may be estimated from an analysis of two recent projects: Area Typ Year Karma 150 ha C2 1972 Saga (Chinese mission) 300 ha Dl 1971/73 ANNEX X Page 5 KARMA (C2) Works Method of execution Total % Cost/ha (CFAF (CFAF tlhousand) million) Embanking Contractor (SNGTN) /1 31.1 37 207.0 Pumping equipment Contractor 11.0 13 73.3 Internal layout Force-account (GR) 29.6 35 197.3 Border levee 12.4 15 82.6 84.1 100 560.2 /1 Societe Nationale des Grands Travau>: du Ni-er (mixed enterprise). KARMA - Detail of force-account works Breakdown x Wages 27 Fuel, lubricants 25 Maintenance, repair of vehicles and equipment 20 Construction site tools 5 Equipment (gates, pipes, culverts) 5 Cement works (structures and canal lining) 18 100 of It is to be noted that this list includes no provision for the replacement earth-moving equipment. Experience shows that this item represents about 30% of equipment costs. The cost per hectare would therefore have to be increased by (197.3 + 82.6) x 25 f+Z° x (1 - 1) = CFAF 55,000. - ~~100 0.7 On the other hand, when taxes are excluded, the cost of contract works should be reduced by approximately 25% (registration of contract 5%, turnover tax 13%, customs duties), or CF,AF 50,000/ha. In short, the cost of the Karma project net of taxes would come to CFAF 565,000/ha. ANNEX X Page 6 SAGA (D1) Works Methods of execution Cost/ha (in CFAF thousand) Embanking Contractor 105 Pumping station - building Chinese force-account 35 - motor-driven pumps Contractor 45 Irrigation and drainage networks Force-account 65 Layout of irrigation unit (ditches, culverts, gates, leveling) Force-account 230 480 Supervision, 15% 72 552 These charges likewise do not include the cost of replacement of earth-moving equipment, and it is not known whether they include taxes. 7. Obviously these costs data are only indicative. The cost of embank- ing alone, which is a large item, depends of course, on the shape of the irrigated area; it is considered that, if more than 300 m3 embankment per ha protected is required, the site is not suitable for development. In short, the following standards, which recapitulate those of the Genie Rural -- and which seem to have been generously estimated in the light of the two cases just described may be taken into consideration in an economic evaluation: Cost in CFAF 1,000/ha - 1973 GR Standards Recommended Standards Contractor Force-Account (1) (2) Embanking (2/3 dike, 1/3 works) 450 - 325 Pumping equipment (1/2 motor pumps, 1/2 civil works and miscellaneous) 150 - 110 Internal layout in terraces, and main canals 300 200 215 Leveled lots and terminal network 200 150 150 (1) Costs include 25% for taxes. (2) Force account works are understood to be 30% cheaper than contract works. Total development costs per hectare, on the basis of these standards, are summarized in the following general table which shows the characteristics of the various types of projects. ALNNEX X Page 7 Types of projects (CFAF - 1973) B1 C2 Dl (a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b) Embanking 450,000) 325,000 450,000 325,000 450,000 325,000 Layout in terraces, and main canals - - 300,000 215,000 300,000 215,000 Pumping - 150,000 110,000 150,000 110,000 Leveled plots and main water networks - - - - 200,000 150,000 Total 450,000 325,000 900,000 650,000 1100,000 _00,000 Note: (a) = contractor's cost 1973 (b) = target costs 1974: only the dike to be constructed by the contractor. 8. Pumping cost is largely dependent on the annual water flow, since pumping time varies according to the ratio of gravity irrigation to pumped irrigation and the influence of the characteristic: discharge times head of the propeller pump. In the average year, gravity irrigation in C2 or' Dl projects is possible on some of the irrigation units for about two months. In a poor water year at Niamey, the pumping equipment described above (2.8 liters/s/ha) has to operate 550 hours in the rainy season and 1,150 hours in the dry season, totalling 1,700 hours in all. (a) Under these circumstances, and with the use of combustion engines, pumping cost is estimated as follows (in CFAF per ha): ANNEX X Page 8 CFAF/annual crop season - Operation: Diesel oil: 0.6 hph x 0.23 liters x CFAF 42.50 x 1,700 9,970 Lubricants 20% 1,990 11,960 Maintenance: Motor pump 60,000 x 0.01 x 1,700 hrs 10,200 Machine maintenance section (according to UNCC) 6,700 Pumpman - wages 2,500 19,400 Depreciation: Diesel engine 35,000 x 1,700 hrs 8,750 7,000 hrs Pump 17,500 x 1,700 hrs 4,375 13,125 12,000 hrs Wear and tear (4% per annum) 2,500 Total 46,985 The cost price per m3 therefore comes to approximately 46,985 CFAF 2.00 23,700 CF 20 (b) However, certain irrigation units near Niamey are (or will be) equipped with sets of electrically operated pumps and will be accorded a preferential rate (CFAF 13/kWh in 1973). Since electricity will be brought to Niamey from Nigeria (from the Kandji dam - works to be completed in January 1976) it is - planned to electrify the Niamey-Tillabery section, and even beyond (Namarigoungou). The changeover from diesel to electric power, if the latter is costed at CFAF 25/kWh (cost of electricity supplied by an independent generating unit 1/) will probably result in a substantial reduction in pumping costs, which would become: Before the rise in prices due to the energie crisis that began in November 1973. ANNEX X Page 9 CFAF/annual crop seasorn Operation Electric energy (efficiency of electric motor = 0.85) 12,510 0.40 hph x 0.736 x 1,700 hrs x CFAF 25 2,000 Lubricants 14,510 Maintenance Electric pump 3,000 Mlachine maintenance section 6,700 Punpman - wages 2,500 12,200 Amortization (electric pump 8 years) 4,000 Wear and tear 1,200 Total 31,910 Cost price per m of water 31,910 CFAF 134 23,700 CF 13 9. Yields per hectare depend upon the degree of sophistication of the project, reflected, on the one hand, in the irregularity of the water layer and of the irrigated surface with traditional or natural flooding (types A or B); and, on the other hand, in the relative regularity of the water layer in the paddy field with controlled or artificial flooding (types C or D). However, yields have apparently been measured only at Karma (1973), where they were as follows: rainy season 4.5 t/ha dry season 4.0 t/ha 8.5 t/ha 10. The organization of the rice-growing areas is based on the provisions of Law No. 60-28 of May 25, 1960, which prescribes the methods of reclamation and management to be used in irrigated agriculture projects executed by the Government. (a) A prior land survey makes it possible to regulate the allocation of the plots after reclamation, in the light of the following principles: - priority instailation of the holders of customary rights; - installation of0owner-farmer families; - allocation of t:he plots according to the work capacity of the family, on the basis of ten acres per work unit (standard established in order to ensure self-sufficiency and to provide a minimum income). ANNEX X Page 10 (b) The management of the project is entrusted to an agency (UNCC) under an agreement which authorizes it to collect management ("redevance d'exploitation") and to receive a subsidy repre- senting the expenses incurred by the Government. The fee to be paid by the allottees must cover the following expenses: - general maintenance of large structures; - operation, repair, maintenance, amortization of pumping equipment; - expenses of the management agency; - contribution to the solidarity fund, the purpose of which is to cover bad debts, exemptions, etc. Through the subsidy, the Government carries the cost of: - the amortization of the infrastructure and of the civil works; - the cost (wages and operation) of supervision; the de- gressive subsidy, which formerly covered the part of the fee not borne by the farmers during the early years, was abolished in 1971. (c) In turn, the managing agency enters into a management contract with each farmer, which completes the internal organization of the project. Under this contract, UNCC supplies not only the water and supervision, but also the necessary means of produc- tion (plowing, nurseries, fertilizer), usually on credit at a low interest rate (4-5%). (d) The participating farmers are initially organized in a farmers council, which is intended to become a GMP, 1/ the basic grouping of the Niger cooperative system. In each arrondissement, a land development commission solves land allocation problems, approves annual cropping plans, and settles disputes. 11. The operating account of the project, from the standpoint of the managing agency (UNCC), is established for each rice-growing season: rainy season May 1 - October 30 dry season November 1 - April 30 1/ Groupement Mutuel de Producteurs. ANNEX X Page 11 As an illustration, estimated expenses for two crop seasons, in an average water year, are as follows: CFAF/ha Normal maintenance 3,000 Provision for maintenance of large structures 3 5,000 Pumping (approximately 26,000 m at CFAF 2'1 52,000 Management expenses (administra- tion and management, central workshop) 3,0001/ Gross fee 63,000 Solidarity iund, 10% ' 6,300 Total Expenses 69,300 If the actual fee is fixed at CFAF 60,000 (or CFAF 30,000 per crop season), the Government subsidy will. make up the difference, or CFAF 9,300. 12. The farmer's account is as follows (for Karma): Expenses CFAF/ha Management fee 60,000 Cultivation expenses (to be repaid to UNCC) For 1 crop season: plowing 3,000 fertilizer 2/ 3,500 nursery 4,000 10,500 For 2 crop seasorLs 21,000 Total 81,000 Income The farmer's harvrest of 8 t/ha for two crop seasons represents gross receipts of CFAF 172,000/ha at the official price for paddy of CFAF 21.50/kg and CFAI' 200,000/ha at the actual market price of CFAF 25/kg (1973). His net income of approximately CFAF 120,000/ha fixes 1/ As a matter of fact, the real management expenses should be increased by CFAF 7,000/ha to fully account for expenses of UNCC as the managing agency. In other words, they should be approximately CFAF 10,000/ha. 2/ Urea, which received a 35% subsidy. ANNEX X Page 12 the value of his work day (120 days for the first crop season, 140 days for the second) at 120,000 CFAF 460 or nearly twice the SHIIG (legal minimum wage). 2 6 ctually, labor productivity could be increased by the use of small rice cultivation implements (rotary lhoe, portable thresher, winnower, husker, float), used communally within the GMP. 13. For a project of the Karma type, the total operating cost, regardless of the economic agent incurring any particular element of it, is therefore as follows: CFAF/ha Gross fee 69,300 plus additional UNCC management expenses (approximately) 7,000 plus cultivation expenses (two crop seasons) 21,000 plus subsidy for fertilizer (approximately) 3,700 101,000 The direct or indirect Government subsidy, viz. (69,300 - 60,000) + 7,000 + 3,700 = CFAF 20,000 represents almost 20% of the total cost. If the farmer had to pay all the operating expenses, his net receipt would be only around CFAF 100,000 or CFAF 385 per work day, which is still high. 14. (a) In making an assessment of the type of project to be recommended it must be borne in mind that, in view of the decisive weight of the cost of embanking and interior layout, and of the fact that these two factors vary appreciably from site to site (shape, relief) there is no standard layout, but an optimum layout for each individual site. However, the projects executed show that it is too risky to finance an interior layout in terraces with uncon- trolled flooding (B2); that pumping is not well used unless it is combined with this type of refinement (Cl); and that the replacement of the main canals by pipes rules out gravity irrigation (D2). 1/ Types B2, Cl, and D2 are therefore virtually ruled out from the start. It would be advisable, moreover, to try to standardize costs, expenses, and yields for each type of project. (b) Furthermore, for each type of project, the selection criteria, i.e. the benefits and costs, must be defined for each of the "operators" con- cerned: the Government, the managing agency (e.g. UNCC) and the farmer. As the representative of the national conmunity, the Government bears the cost of the investment, endeavors to create rural employment, to ensure food supplies for the country and to develop the land and water resources of each region. 1/ Type D2 - low-pressure pipes (Californian system) - may be justified in certain special cases in which the microrelief is very pronounced or the reclaimable areas are dispersed in 'clusters" of 20 to 30 ares. ANNEX X Page 13 In view of these objectives, it will be guided in the choice of each project under the irrigated agriculture program by the internal economic rate of return which determines the efficient use of scarce factors of production, in particu- lar capital and foreign exchange. In the case of Niger, it is difficult to say what the appropriate level of this rate is, but at first sight it would appear tnat a prcject which does not yield a rate of at least 10% is suspect, i.e. constitutes a serious risk of wastage of resources. A few preliminary calcula- tions slhow that type C2 or type Dl projects should, with paddy valued at the new official price of CFAF 30/kg, reach or exceed this level. It is to be noted that this price is not necessarily a shadow price which would take into account the price of a kilo of imported grain in a famine year, either under emergency conditions (CFAF 100/kg in 1972-73) or "normal" conditions (estimated at CFAF 40-45/kg at present). It is further to be noted that the price of CFAF 25/kg, which UNCC used in its calculations and which was higher than the official price of CFAF 21.50/kg, was plainly justified in the case of the domestic market by the addition of a kind of insurance premium amounting to a few CFA francs per kilo equivalent to the cost of building up stocks which would guarantee the supply of this kilo of paddy in a famine year. 1/ Further- more this price was already, recorded and frequently exceeded on the market. The standpoint of' the managing agency is not necessarily the same as that of the Government. Its criterion is financial rather than economic, the essential difference being that the bulk of the operating expenses are borne by the farmer and nol: by UNCC, which receives, as has been noted, certain Government subsidies. A satisfactory financial rate of return appears, accord- ing to the calculations of UNCC itself, to have been achieved for projects of the Karma type (C2). Finally, the farmer is concerned with the remuneration of ilis labor, the more so because in the projects the beneficiaries usually put in work addi- tional to that required by their traditional farm. The remuneration of the farmer is also affected by possible subsidies and taxes. The standpoint of the farmer may be based on the profit per work day or the total annual profit: the difference is important because the number of work days depends on the type of project and not on the choice of the farmer. Thus under present con- ditions, the net daily income is higher in a B1 project, but this type of project requires (or provides) only 90 days of work per hectare; the net annual income is clearly higher in a C2 or Dl project, which require 220 and 210 days of work, but the work day is less well paid, in other words the margi- nal income is less. The following table summarizes typical situations. Clearly, the attitude the farmers concerned will adopt and whether or not they are inter- ested in maximizing their daily income or their annual income must be known for each site to be developed. 1/ The investment in stocks is actually about CFAF 30 - 40/kg. The annual cost may be estimated (amortization, interest, maintenance) at CFAF 3 - 4/kg. ANNEX X Page 14 Farmer's Remuneration Type of project B1 C2 Dl Price of paddy (CFAF/kg) 21.5 25.0 21.5 25.0 21.5 25.0 Number of work days/ha 90 220 210 Annual income per ha (rounded figures) 43,000 54,500 78,500 106,500 102,000 133,500 Income per day per ha 478 606 357 485 636 (c) It would appear that there is a great difference in productivity for a small difference in cost between types B1 and C2 (pumping representing only 1.3 of the cost of the dikes); and a great difference in cost (leveling cost- ing almost twice as much as terracing) for a small difference in productivity between types C2 and Dl. These differences are shown in the rate of return, which is highest in the case of type Dl on all assumptions but ruled out type B1 in almost every case. The investment per job in rice cultivation is very similar in the three cases, but in view of the high demand and limited supply, types C2 and Dl use half as much area per job as type Bl. Also, the additional production from the B1 project is problematical, for it varies con- siderably, both in the yield and in the area harvested, according to rainfall and flood conditions on which it is completely dependent. Uncontrolled flooding (B1) is therefore ruled out and this justifies the redevelopment, at present being undertaken by Genie Rural, of the depressions reclaimed earlier under this type of project. Purely economic criteria do not allow to clearly differ- entiate between C2 and Dl projects, the more so because the special character- istics of the site may modify the basic standards. Furthermore, non-economic considerations may be involved. The scraping of the soil by leveling may turn out to be detrimental and thus lead to recommend C2 rather than Dl. In addi- tion, C2, which is less sophisticated than Dl, offers possibilities of "human investment" (non paid labor) and better training in water management than Dl. C2 will therefore often recommend itself at least during a first phase lasting a few years in which yields are limited more by the skill of the farmer than the degree of sophistication of the project. 15. Aside from the choice of the type of project, other as yet unresolved problems handicap the operation of the projects: (a) Customary rights are still an obstacle to the enforcement of the Land Law and to an allocation of the plots consistent with efficient operation, based on the family work capacity of the rural population near the site; (b) The Djerma population is only slowly becoming interested in working in the projects and does not willingly accept the collective constraints which such cultivation necessarily requires. This is a matterof training, which should be intensified within the GMPs and the cooperatives; ANNEX X Page 15 (c) The recovery of fees is time-consuming, difficult, and costly since it entails pursuing the debtors for months in the local markets where they gradually sell their ground rice and thus earn money. It may be asked whether, in view of the fact that rice cultivation is necessarily collective and directed in fact by UNCC, the managing agency (choice of varieties, cultural methods, transplant- ing dates; plowing, nurseries; water management), produc- tion cooperatives, at least in the initial phase, would not be more suitable than independent rice-growers grouped into service cooperatives. Even if such an arrangement retained the individual plots within the rice fields, at least it would make it possible (with the introduction of threshing with the Japanese thresher) to recover the fee on the spot, after the harvest, and in the form of paddy. This paddy would enable UNCG. to make up the shortfall in the supply of the Tillabery rice mill. 16. Finally, from the standpoint of the efficient development of the water and land resources of the entire river valley, i.e. about 30,000 ha of depressions and 20,000 ha of terraces, with the minimum annual flow falling below 100 m3/s for 50 days each year in the period June - August, and giving a discharge (90% frequency) of 21-26 m3/s,1/ it would appear that, in the present state of the river., both in Niger and upstream in Mali, water is likely to become a limiting factor. Water requirements must be evaluated in terms of stream-flow and not in volume. It can be very roughly estimated at 51 m3/s in the critical period, that :is to say when the low stream-flow coincides with a rainless June. Under these exceptional circumstances, water would be pumped night and day: m3/s Depressions - rice fields - filling 6+5.3 = 11.3 x 1 = 14.1 mm/day 0.8 141 m x 23,000 ha/86,400 38.0 - fodder crops for fattening of 120,000 head of cattle at a 3 rate of 17 head/ha 6 = 90 m /ha 0.7 x 7,000 ha/86,400 7.3 Terraces - sugar cane 2,000 ha x 1.2 liters/s 2.4 - other: supplemental or emergency irrigation on the sown areas, which represent only part of the total surface. Average 500 m3/ha x 18,000 ha/86,400 x 30 3.5 51.2 m /s 1/ The absolute minimum stream flow ever recorded was 3 m'3/s in June 1973. ANNEX X Page 16 A reduction in these requirements could be obtained by a delay of one month (transplanting in July instead of June) in the schedule for the rainy season rice so as to make better use of the rainfall at the time when the water level has not yet risen. Nevertheless, in order to make use of all the land, within the frame- work of an efficient agricultural program, it would be necessary to "step up" the low stream-flow, either by a retaining dam upstream (Kandadji project) or by reducing losses (65% of the inflow) in the Mali "inland delta". A very important threshold to be considered is therefore that at which a dam will become necessary. If it is intended to satisfy irrigation requirements with 90% security, this threshold is determined by the low stream-flow which can be counted on 9 years out of 10, viz. approximately 25 m3/s. Such a stream-flow is compatible with the following irrigation program, which is proposed in the body of the report: 3 Rice fields 12,500 ha (or 10,000 additional ha) requiring 20.0 m /s Sugar cane 2,000 ha 2.4 Fodder crops 3,000 (fattening of 50,000 head of cattle) 3.12 " 17. In conclusion, it is believed that the efficient development of the Niger river valley can only be contemplated within the regional framework of the development of the entire basin. The threshold just determined, namely 15,000 additional hectares, that can be reclaimed and exploited without regula- tion of river flow, gives an idea of the time available for making studies and holding consultations, in particular with the other riparian States. French aid (FAC) has been requested to send a hydrologist in 1974 to go into further details of this scheduling. RIVER NIGER DEPRESSIONS AND TERRACES - AGRO-HYDRO-CLIMATIC CHART Water level Flood of River Niger at Niamey 200 high level flood \ 1954-55 1 2000 1t_-60 low level flood 1949-50 1000 SSS e 120 1~~OC 000 80OO Climate / ~-~ Normal rains 500 _/ Niamey 0 Month Jul. Aug. Sep Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan Feb Mar, Apr. |May |un. Average evaporation 3.4 2.2 2.6 4.5 5.7 5. 6 4 7 7 8.5 8 3 7.3 5 3 Piche, Niamey mm/dav 3.4 2 2 4 Crop schedule Transplanting D52/37 rice Rainy Season _ . - - - - - t | Transplanting Dry season _ - - - - S _ E - Harvest Tomatoes ...... -. - E...... 13 1 - Onions ...... - _|- _. - Cowpeas ...... ] 311 1…ll1… Planting Planting Sugar cane ...... -1_ _ _ i _ =_ = ______B Z _ _|ldrNI. I.__| W r Ban I 93 World Bank-8933 AN_NEX XI Page 1 LIST OF PROJECIS MAKING UP THE EMERGENCY PROGRAM (1973) IBRD/IDA The following projects will be charged against a credit of $2 mil- lion (about CFAF 470 million); CFAF million - village storehouses in critical areas to be used by OPVN for buffer or security stockpiling; 130 - training of UNCC extension agents (33) intended mainly for the productivity schemes; 18.4 - study of the Galmni irrigation project (agri- cultural compone-nt of the 260 ha onion growing and processing complex); 26.6 - protection and exploitation of gum-trees (2,000 ha, 800,000 trees) to increase the collection of gum and contr:ibute to soil conservation; 22.3 - anti-erosion measures in the upper Keita valley; 59.1 - centers for saving young cattle. 93.9 355.3 Federal Rxepublic of Germanyt _ _ _ _ ~~~~~.~r_n - centers for saving young cattle (it is not yet known whether the young cattle will be bought to be nourished in regrouping centers or on ranches or whether the stockraisers will simply be given a loan to enable them to keep their cattle). 300 European Development Fund (FED) - dug wells and tubewells in the pastoral area, especially Agadez (CFAF 1 million per dug well, CFAF 30 to 40 million per tubewell). 400 ANtTEX XI Page 2 US-AID - storage facilities for OPVl (15jOOO t in 1973). While these projects will help to some extent with the reconstitution of the herd, they scarcely touch the longer-range problems such as rehabilitation of pastures (especially by reseeding) or the extension of irrigated areas. ANNEX XII Page 1 LIST OF PRE-INVESTMENT STUDIES 1. The prospects presented in the report (Chapter VI) explain which studies should be started immediately. General or pre-investment studies should be distinguished from those related to already identified projects (feasibility studies, detailed engineering studies). 2. Without setting forth their terms of reference here the general studies that should be undertaken now can be listed as follows: - Demographic study based on a sample survey to define the present situiation, make forecasts and to serve as foundation to population policy. - Niger River Comaission - Indicative plan for the Niger basin. Potential for development. Development schemes encompassing, considering the needs of the riparian coun- tries, hydroelectric power generation, flood control, irrigation, and navigation. - In conjunction with the preceding study, a Study of a development scheme for the valley of the river in Niger. Potential - programming - organization (plan for an Office du Fleuve). - General study oi irrigation possibilities outside the river valley. - Study of export markets for cowpeas. - Study of the size and structure of the cattle herd, in- tended to assist. the livestock projects program. - Study of the possibilities of expanding "human investment" in Niger. Potential labor force. Jobs. Practical standards of mobilization. Prospects. - Agricultural research: as part of a regional program for the Sahel, perfection of a hybrid rice suited to conditions in the region, i.e. not sensitive to photoperiodism, not too sensitive to dry-season temperatures, responsive to fertilizers, with medium stem length. 3. The following are the most urgent of the project-related studies: - Study of a buffer stock project, at both the national and local level. Programming phasing, technical standards, costs, management. ANNEX XII Page 2 Development of natural depressions, as part of the general "tRiver"' study; feasibility studies for 700 ha per year (study of the Namarigoungou site underway). In conjunction with the UNDP (Dallol Maouri) and FAC projects, completion of the pilot phase of the Dosso rural development project (it should go into operation in 1976-78). - Feasibility study on the livestock chain linking the pastoral area I (South Tamesna), the Ekrafane ranch, and a feedlot of 1,200 ha of fooder crops grown in irrigated depressions (resumption and extension of the Tiaguirire project). - Resumption of the feasibility study of a sugar cane and processing complex. 4. The cost of these studies has not been evaluated and has not been included in the basic investment program given in the body of the report. ANNEX XIII Page 1 MARKETING INSTITUTIONS 1. For a long time the Government has controlled the marketing of groundnut and cotton exports. More recently, it decided to take part in the marketing of locally consumed basic foodstuff, mainly cereals. Ground- nut producers sell to cooperatives or to approved buyers (stockpiling agencies) which in turn sell to the Societe Nigerienne de Commercialisation de l'Arachide (SONARA). SONARA exports the groundnuts or sells them to local oil imills. Cotton is also sold through the cooperative system to the Compagnie Francaise pour le Developpement des Fibres Textiles (CFDT), which gins the cotton and exports the fiber or sells it to the local textile plant, the Societe Nigerienne des Textiles (NITEX). A stabilization fund, Caisse de Stabilisa- tion des Prix des Produits du Niger (CSPPN), receives the financial surpluses resulting from SONARA's or CFDT's marketing operations and makes compensatory payments to them in the event of marketing losses. As regards locally con- sumed food, whether produced locally or imported, Government intervention takes place through the Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger (OPVN). SONARA: Purposes, Finances and Organization 2. SONARA was set up in 1962 to market and export groundnuts. SONARA's present capital is CFAF 31)0 million, of which the Government holds 20 mil- lion, BDRN 1/ 62.5 million, CSPPN 119 million, 2/ the other 98.5 million being in the hands of approved Niger or foreign buyers and a Government commercial enterprise. At present SONARA's Board of Directors consists of 9 members: 3 representing the Govermnent, 1 CSPPN, 1 BDRN, 1 the Government commercial enterprise and 3 the approved buyers. The President and the Director General are appointed from among 1:he directors designated by the Government. The Board appoints a Deputy D:Lrector General on the recommendation of iLs Chair- man. The Government also designates a Government Commissioner who attends meetings of the Board and audits the accounts of SONARA., its loans, the con- clusion of contracts, the remuneration of its staff and, in general, super- vises SONARA's major activities. The general stockholders meeting appoints two auditors. 3. SONARA, which hlzs the monopoly on the sale of groundnuts for export and to the local oil mills, is not directly involved in primary marketing. When SONARA was set up,.primary marketing was handled by 22 commercial firms, most of them foreign. At present, primary marketing is handled by coopera- tives in about half the producing areas. In other regions, the foreign ap- proved buyers, with two or three exceptions, have been gradually replaced by Nigerien nationals. Apart from its purely commercial activities, SONARA also takes part in the transportation and shelling of groundnuts. 1/ Banque de Development: de la Republique du Niger. 2/ CSPPN's share in the capital is CFAF 62.5 million, but in addition CSPPN provisionally holds CFAF 56.5 million in shares formerly held by approved (mostly foreign) buyers. ANNEX XIII Page 2 Management and Staff 4. SONARA has a permanent staff of about 400, including 22 supervisors and technicians (of whom 4 are expatriates), 25 foremen, 80 skilled workers and about 275 unskilled workers. About 80 persons work in the Niamey head- quarters, about 300 in the two main local agencies at Maradi and Zinder, and a few at Dosso. SONARA also has a sales office in Paris and representative offices in Kano and Lagos, Nigeria, which are responsible for arranging and supervising the transportation of groundnuts through that country. In addi- tion, SONARA employs temporary workers for 3 to 5 months to shell groundnuts. Thus SONARA employed up to 1,100 temporary workers in 1972, but their number diminished in 1973 and probably will fall again in 1974 because of the drop in groundnut production. SONARA's management, which changed in 1968, is efficient. SONARA's Finances 5. SONARA transfers marketing surpluses to CSPPN and receives compensa- tory payments from CSPPN in the event of losses. The financial surpluses and losses from marketing are determined by deducting from SONARA's gross receipts from the sale of groundnuts the theoretical costs of handling, transportation and operation. This system leaves SONARA a comfortable margin. Since its establishment, after paying the profit tax of 35% and commissions, SONARA has netted annual profits varying between CFAF 50 million and CFAF 300 million. After payment of a dividend of 6% to its stockholders, SONARA has transferred its profits to reserve accounts. SONARA's cash situation and overall financial position are satisfactory. SONARA's Present Activities and Prospects 6. SONARA was set up esseAtially to market groundnuts for export: between 1962/63 and 1970/71, 75% to 80% of the marketed production of ground- nuts was exported, the rest being sold to the local oil mills, except for a small percentage (1% to 3%) sold for seed. Since groundnuts are exported shelled, SONARA has undertaken the shelling, thus replacing the farmers, and has set up 3 shelling plants with a total capacity of about 80,000 tons, which came into operation in 1964, 1965 and 1966, respectively. 7. This situation has been radically changed in recent years owing to two factors: (a) the drop in production resulting from the pro- longed drought; (b) the increase in the capacity of the local oil mills, which rose from about 45,000 tons of unshelled groundnuts in 1967/68 to about 130,000 tons at present and will reach 175,000 tons in 1974. ANNEX XIII Page 3 As a result, SONARA exported only about 40,000 tons of shelled groundnuts in 1973, and in 1974 exports will be reduced to practically nothing -- some 3,000 tons of edible groundnuts. SONARA has already closed down the two smallest shelling plants, which had a combined capacity of 35,000 tons of unshelled groundnuts, and the third shelling plant is working very much below capacity. If groundnut production does not regain its 1966/67 level SONARA, which has a heavy organizational structure and a large staff, will no longer be justified in its present activity and the problem of its reconversion will arise. In fact, this prob:Lem will arise even if production picks up, since an increasing proportion oi the groundnuts is used by local oil mills and no longer exported. Compagnie Francaise pour le Developpement des Fibres Textiles (CFDT) Organization 8. CFDT was established in 1949 to provide specialized technical assist- ance to the French overseas territories and later to other regions for the devel- opment of textile fibers, particularly cotton. CFDT is a nonprofit enterprise (a mixed economy company)-with a capital of FF200,000, contributed mainly by the French Government. Its Board is made up of representatives of various French ministries and of French commercial and industrial enterprises, the Caisse Centrale de Cooperat:ion Economique (CCCE) and the Institut de Recherches du Coton et des Textiles Exotiques (IRCT). Its headquarters is in Paris and comprises 4 main divisions: agriculture; industry and equipment; commerce; and finance and accounting. There appear to be considerable advantages to central- ization in Paris: the quality of the services is undoubtedly greater than could be achieved by each country on its own in view of their low individual production; similarly, CFDT can obtain more favorable prices for purchases of equipment and capital goods by placing group orders for all the countries, and can obtain advantageous, insurance and freight rates; lastly, it manages sales of cotton from its Paris office, which facilitates delivery of the product to the various buyers in the quantities and qualities desired and at the time required. CFDT operates in 14 countries of Africa south of the Sahara, 2 countries in the Mediterranean region and 6 countries in Asia. Activities 9. CFDT's activities in Niger consist of providing supervisory ser- vices for production, ginning and marketing of cotton. In activities linked to production, CFDT wQrks under agreements different from those existing in most other African countries: CFDT acts as a technical assistance agency under contract with UNCC, 1/ which is responsible for extension services for cotton and has its own extension staff. CFDT provides 5 expatriates for UNCC's extension service (3 in the main cotton-growing area in the Department of Tahoua, 1 in the Department of Maradi and 1 in the Department of Dosso). 1/ Union Nigerienne de Cooperation et de Credit. ANNEX XIII Page 4 CFDT runs 3 ginneries at Madaoua, Maradi and Gaya, with a total capacity of about 18,000 tons. It buys the cotton from the producers or the coopera- tives and, after ginning, exports the cotton fiber or sells it to the local textile plant NITEX 1/ in Niamey, which began operations in 1970. Most of the cottonseed is exported, except for seed required by the producers. 10. The cost of the 5 expatriate production specialists and part of the cost of the expatriate director responsible for operations in Niger is paid by France (FAC); this cost amounts to about CFAF 50 million a year. CFDT's Finances 11. CFDT transfers marketing surpluses to CSPPN and receives compensatory payments from CSPPN in the event of losses. The surpluses and the losses are determined by deducting from CFDT's gross receipts from sales of cotton the theoretical costs of handling, ginning, transportation and operation. Because of the sharp fall in cotton production, the theoretical costs have become much lower than the real costs and, in 1973/74, CFDT will no doubt incur losses on its operations in Niger. Caisse de Stabilisation des Prix des Produits du Niger (CSPPN) 12. CSPPN was established in 1960. It is a State agency directed by a Board of 10 members, viz. the Minister of Economic Affairs (Chairman), the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Rural Economy and the Minister of Devel- opment, 2 members from the National Assembly, the Chairmen of the Boards of CNCA, UNCC, OPVN and SONARA, and the President of the Chamber of Commerce, Agriculture and Industry. The Director of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Industry is responsible for the day-to-day management of the CSPPN. The essential purpose of CSPPN is the stabilization of prices paid to groundnut and cotton producers by making compensatory payments to the marketing agencies or by receiving their financial surpluses from market- ing, since the prices to the producers are also fixed by Government decree. CSPPN's Finances 13. CSPPN's financial resources are essentially the following: (a) 15% of the proceeds of the export taxes on groundnuts, groundnut oil and cakes, and cotton; "(b) SOINARA's and CFDT's marketing surpluses (see paras. 5 and 11) (c) certain transfers made by the Government out of levies related to controlled imports and marketing of sugar. 1/ The shareholders of NITEX are Agache-Willot 70%; the Niger Government, BDRN and CSPPN 15%; and private textile merchants 15%. AiNEX XIII Page 5 CSPPN's resources have been used for: (i) making comp)ensatory payments to SONARA and CFDT; (ii) financing the Fonds d'Amelioration de la Productivite Rurale (FWTR), which itself to some extent subsidizes OPVN, the rice mill (Riz du Niger), SONIPRIM and a few other agricultural development operations; (iii) making transfers to the Government budget; (iv) subscribing to the capital of various public agencies and State enterprises (SONARA, Societe Nationale de Cimenterie, BDRN, NITEX, Societe Nigerienne d'Electricite); (v) making various loans; (vi) participating in financing such items as public buildings. CSPPN's liquidity position is not accurately known but can be estimated at CFAF 2 to 4 billion at the end of 1973. Marketing of Groundnuts 14. CSP'PN made a compensatory payment of CFAF 170 million to SONARA for the 1967/68 groundnut season. In subsequent years, however, CSPPN has received substantial surpluses from SONARA, as shown in the following table: 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 CFAF million 470 1,059 1,666 1,350 1,8CO* * Preliminary estimates. 15. The surpluses realized by SONARA are considerably affected by the growing volume of groundnuts delivered to local oil mills, since the two main oil mills have a 10-year agreement with the Government, whereby SONARA is to supply them with groundnuts at a price equivalent to 54.5% of the export price obtained by SONARA. The same price is applied to the groundnuts de- livered to the third oil mill. On this basis, the marketing margin received by CSPPN from SONARA in the 1972/73 crop year was about CFAF 29,900 per ton for groundnuts exported, whereas it was only CFAF 7,000 for groundnuts de- livered to the local oil mills. It is more than likely that the difference between the margin on exports and the margin on sales to local mills will be even greater in 1973/74. This difference between the two margins, however, does not take into account the fact that Government participation in the oil mills is to gradually increase to 30% and that it will therefore reveive a corresponding percentage of the profits of the mills, or of the fact that one of the mills is already paying 35% profits tax, whereas the other two under ANNEX XIII Page 6 an agreement with the Government will only pay this tax from 1982 and 1984, respectively. Mfarketing of Cotton 16. Between 1962 and 1966, CSPPN paid CFDT compensatory payments of about CFAF 75 million, it paid another CFAF 65 million in 1968. In subsequent years till 1972/73, CFDT turned over a surplus to CSPPN. As in the case of groundnuts, sales of cotton fiber to local industry considerably affect the marketing margins that may be received by CSPPN. The following table shows the distribution of sales, in terms of volume, between exports and NITEX. Cotton fiber (tons) Year Export Sales to NITEX Total 1969/70 2,834 966 3,800 1970/71 2,918 550 3,468 1971/72 2,065 1,014 3,079 1972/73 853 1,000 1,853 1973/74* 0 1,000 1,000 * Preliminary estimate. In the last four years, CFDT had to deliver the cotton fiber to NITEX at a price that would just cover its costs, whereas on exported cotton fiber CFDT was realizing large marketing margins which were transferred to CSPPN, as shown in the following table: Surplus per ton Total surplus of cotton fiber for CSPPN Year CFAF CFAF million 1969/70 13,056 37 1970/71 41,810 122 1971/72 48,426 100 1972/73* 117,233 100* * Prelimary estimates. AiNEX XIII Page 7 Under the present agreements, and at present world prices (at end of 1973), CFDT would suffer a loss of about CFAF 21,000 per ton on the cotton delivered to the local pl.mt and could receive about CFAF 9,000 per ton as compensatory payment from CSPPN (the difference representing a net loss for CFDT), while on exports CFDT would realize a net margin of CFAF 160,000 to 180,000 per ton, which would be transferable to CSPPN. Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger (OPVN) 17. In the marketing of food products, the main purpose of OPVN (which was established in 1970) has hitherto been the regulation of prices within each crop-year. For millet and cowpeas, a decree passed at the beginning of each crop-year based on the recommendation of OPVN fixes the terms of opera- tion of the Office, the approved stockpiling agencies, and the cooperatives. The prices to be applied are left to the discretion of the Office, which sets them in the light of economic conditions, but they cannot fall below a fixed floor price (e.g. CFAF 12.50 per kg of millet in 1972). The products bought locally, plus imports, are distributed throughout the country, first: to the regions reported to have a shortage, generally to the administrative centers of the arrondissements, where they are supposed to be sold at official prices fixed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Because of the food deficits in recent years, the prices of millet on the large consumer markets of Niamey, Tahoua and Agadez have substantially increased. 18. Through a US-AID loan, OPVN was to receive in 1973 additional stor- age capacity of 15,000 tons, which it plans to raise to 27,000 tons in 1975. This equipment will enable it to better perform its stabilizing role and to begin year-to-year security stockpiling. To achieve this goal, it will have to move toward a wider-reaching association with the basic cooperative structure. So far however, the Office's transactions have involved only 4,000 to 5,000 tons of local products a year, and its main activity has been to sell or to distribute free of charge in the shortage areas the imported products supplied by external aid (14,000 tons in 1971/72 and over 80,000 tons in 1972/73). It must also be the principal tool for forwarding and distri- buting the estimated 250,000 to 300,000 tons of food products to be imported in 1973/74; but the size of the task seems well beyond its present capacities; support might be sought, for example, from SONARA, which, owing to the fall- off in groundnut production, has the means, equipment and the organization required. 19. OPVN also has a purchasing monopoly for paddy and ground rice. Prices were fixed at CFAF 21.50/kg and CFAF 35/kg, respectively, up to the end of 1973. In fact, the current price (end of 1973) of paddy on the traditional markets is CFA1? 25/kg, and OPVN. is experiencing the greatest difficulty in securing supplies for the rice-mill. This explains why the official price of paddy to the producer was raised to CFAF 30/kg beginning in 1974. ANNEX XIV Page 1 PROJECTI ONS: PRODUCTION, EXPORTS, INVESTMEUIT The projections are made only for the basic programs on the develop- ment of which the future depends: Cereals - Production and consumption Groundnuts - Production and uses Livestock - Production and offtake Principal agricultural exports Basic agricultural investments The present note, briefly explains and justifies the assumptions used in the preparation of the attached tables (following this Annex). Table A - Cereal Production and Consumption The table compares food requirements, calculated on the basis of 250 kg of cereals per capita per year, with the production of millet and sor- ghum expected from the implementation of four productivity schemes ("integrated rural development projects") and the production of paddy resulting from a development program along the Niger River covering an additional 10,000 ha during the period. In the productivity schemes, where the principal investment con- sists of the technical training of farmers, two phases can be distinguished: an investment period of 5 years, followed by a 5-year maturation period, during which technical progress continues with a smaller supervisory and extension staff. The projected growth of cereal production is based on the estimates made for the ilaradi project: Maradi Standards Investment Maturation period Period Duration 5 years 5 years Gain in productivity ) Cereals 15% 15% at end of period ) Groundnuts 33% 67% Cost per farm (family of 7 to 9 persons) CFAF 48,000/yr. CFAF 5,600/yr. A4NEX XIV Page 2 The productivity schemes would be limited as follows: Zinder: The 3 arrondissements ("3M") currently involved; Maradi: The department, cut off at the 350 mm isohyet; Dosso: The Department; and Niamey: The Department less the arrondissements of Say and Tera. These 4 schemes would cover from 80% (cereals) to 100% (groundnuts) of the agricultural production apparatus of the country. In the rest of the country production is assumed to remain at the 1971 level (considered a "normal" year). For the paddy developments a yield of 8t/ha (2 harvests) is assumed, a figure which has already been reached at Karma (type C2), from the second year of implementation. As irrigation projects are developed, traditional production will fall slightly, since part of its area is taken away. Table B - Groundnut Production Groundnut production is expected to increase with the implementation of the productivity schemes for Zinder, Maradi and Dosso since practically no groundnuts are grown in the Department of Niamey. This increase is based on the standards establishled for Maradi as given in text table above. Table C - Livestock - Production and Exports Livestock development consists of a phase of herd reconstitution and slower offtake, estimated at 8 years (1975-82), followed by improved off-take rates. The table if based on the following hypotheses: - the cattle herd (4 million head in 1971) is reduced to 2.5 millionl/ head in 1974, but its reproductive capacity is slightly improved; - in view of this and the implementation of the pasture improvement project discussed below, the rate of reproduction of the herd would rise from 12% (the traditional rate) to' 15%; - according to the needs of stockraisers and consumers this figure of 15% is divided as follows: 9% offtake (sale of animals of 200 to 250 kg for slaughter or fattening) and 6% reconstitution of the herd. Thus the herd would be reconstituted in 8 years; i.e. it would again number 4 million head in 1982, considered an optimum in viLew of the agrostological potential of the pastoral zone; 1/ In view of the latest: estimates of losses (April 1974) of 50-60 percent this may be a little optimistic. ANNEX XIV Page 3 because of the projected rise in the price of meat, internal consumption would remain at its present level of 6 to 7 kg of beef per capita per year at least for the first 10 years; in the next 10 years, fattening will be based essentially on irriaated crops developed either along the river (chiefly in industrial feedlots) or on small irrigated plots under the Dosso fodder operation (traditional fattening). One hectare of fodder crop makes it possible to fatten about 17 animals a year from 250 to 350 kg; and - since this fattening program is located in the west of the country, the number of lean animals it will require will never exceed 1/4 of all the lean animals available (removals from herd less slaughter for domestic consumption). Four livestock projects would be implemented (cf SEDES study): (a) a general pasture improvement project (stock watering facilities and infrastructure); (b) a "chain" operation called Project I, linking action zone I (South Tamesna, a breeding herd of 82,000 head), the (existing) Ekrafane ranch (capacity 10,000 head), and a feedlot on the river comprising 1,200 ha of irrigated fodder crops: In zone I the standard offtake rate would be improved to 21% broken down as follows: Young males of 140 kg 13% Culled cows 8% The flow of animals down the chain would therefore be as follows: Feedlot ZoneIl= 82,00Ox13% m 11OOO x 250 Ig 1,200 ha 20,OOOx 350 kg 82,COO ThCXJ0xli~0 lO-Japo about 2 000 \cows 82,000Ox8%= 7.000x 29Jg0k A[NNEX XIAV Page 4 (c) a feedlot of 1,800 ha of irrigated crops on the river, requiring at the end of the development phase 30,000 lean animals from herds in the west of the country; and (d) traditional fattening operations on 2,000 ha of irrigated crops in the south of Dosso Department under the productivity scheme - same number of lean animals (35,000). Animals taken from the herd which do not go to a Niger slaughlter- house or to a fattening ranch are exported on the hoof. Since they are sold at the beginning of the dry season their weight (250 kg) is a little higher than that of the animals killed throughout the year for domestic consumption (200 kg). Animals fattened are sold and exported at 350 kg average weight. Tables Dl to D5- Agricultural Exports The projections are derived from the volume forecasts described here and the commodity price forecasts of the World Bank (January 1974). 1/ Cotton The projected increase in production from the present slump (300 tons of cotton fiber in 1973) is postulated on the rehabilitation project pre- pared by CFDT providing for cultivation of Niger's total potential of 20,000 ha in 1984. Yields are 400 kg/ha in extensive cultivation, 900 kg/ha in intensive cultivation (treatment and animal-drawn plow and fertilizer in the Gaya region): 1974 1977 1984 Hectares: 1'),000 (ext. + int.) 18,000 20,000 Tons (seed cotton): 5,200 12,200 14,000 Cowpeas (Niebe) The increase in production of this fast expanding crop is expected to come chiefly from the implementation of the productivity schemes. According to the norms established for Maradi (1,600 tons in the 5th year of the program), production would develop as shown below: 1979 3,200 tons 1984 4,800 tons 1989 6,400 tons 1/ See remark to Table DI below. ANNEX XIV Page 5 Onions The increase in production is expected from the development of irrigated lots in the productivity schiemes (average of 100 ha x 30 tons = 3,000 tons per scheme) and from the Galmi project (expected exports of 1,000 tons of dehydrated onions, corresponding to 7,000 tons of fresh onions). Out-of-season-vegetables At present, early vegetables for export are grown on some 100 ha (largely by SONIPRIkl). It may be possible to double this area after the Niamey airport runway is extended to allow the normal operation of heavy cargo planes. 200 ha x 7t/ha of exportable produce = about 1,500 tons Table E - Basic Agricultural Investments These are public investments - or rather development expenditures - corresponding to projects to develop rain-fed crops (productivity schemes), rice-growing along the Niger river and livestock, as well as security storage facilities for 140,000 tons of grains (or about 10% of the projected millet + sorghum production). All of these investments are estimated at early-1974 prices taken from the relevant project dossiers. In the case of the productivity schemes, where the main and most costly item is staffing and training, the cost esti- mates for Maradi were extrapolated on the basis of the number of farms given by the Agriculture Statistical Service (cf. Vol II, Agriculture, Statistical Annex, Table 10). TABLE A - NIGER - CEREALS - PROJECTIONS OF PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 1971 1973 1979 1984 1989 1994 Population (2.25 percent p.a.), in 1000 4,100 4,300 4,915 5,490 6,120 6,860 Cereals consumption, in lOOOt 1,025 1,075 1,230 1,375 1,530 1,715 (2<0 kg per capita per year) 2/ Millet and sorghum (lOOOt) Zinder scheme (1974-78) 213 245 273 273 273 Maradi scheme (1975-79) 215 247 275 275 275 Dosso scheme (1979-84) 215 215 247 275 275 Niamey scheme (1984-89) 274 274 274 315 351 Departments of Tahoua and Diffa 200 200 200 200 200 + arrondissements not covered by the schemes in the other departments Total millet + sorghum 1.117 1,181 1,269 1,338 1,374 Paddy (lOOOt) Traditional production (lOOOt) 15 12 10 Production on develoEqd land area developed / 2,000 2,500 6,500 12,500 Production (1OOOt) 12 52 100 Total paddy 27 64 110 110 110 Total cereals 1,144 1,245 1,379 1,448 1,484 1/ 1971: below-normal reference year for the schemes. 2/ The increase in cereal production is founded on the estimates made for Maradi, i.e. in normal years: +15 percent in the 5th year of the program - +28 percent in the 10th year of the program. Moreover, the Zinder scheme is assumed to be remodeled according to Maradi norms. 3/ 1974-79 - 700 ha/yr = +4,000 ha 1970-84 - 1200 ha/yr +6,000 ha After 1984 production levels off, pending possible regulation of the river, which would permit extension of the irrigation schemes. TABLE B NIGER - GROUNDNUTS - PROJECTIONS OF PRODUCTION (IN MILLIONS OF TONS IN SHELL) (Current Prices) 1971 1979 1984 1989 1994 Principal producing regions when productivit /schemes are carried out - Zinder (1975-79) 108 144 181 181 181 Maradi (1975-79) 121 161 202 202 202 Dosso (1979-8h) 18 18 24 30 30 Other regions (departments of 10 10 10 10 10 Niamey, Tahara, Diffa + arrondissements not covered by the schemes in the other departments Total 257 333 417 423 423 1/ Below-normal reference year. 2/ The growth of production is based on the estimates made for Maradi, i.e. in normal years: +33 percent in the 5th year of the program +67 percent in the 10th year of the program. TABLE C - NIGER - LIVESTOCK- PROJECTIONS OF PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS (CATTLE) (Current. Prices) 192' 1974 1 75 1976 1977 1979 L_7&1980 1981 1982 1983 1284 reference Phase of herd reconstitution and slower offtake Normal offtake year Reproduction + 15 percent per year (9 percent rates + 6 percent normal reconstitution) Cattle herd (in 1000) 4,000 2,500 2,650 3,150 3,760 4,000 Exports. number of head )eaving herd (in 1000). 325 225 283 338 600 Population (in 1000) +2.25 percent per year ±.lO0 bL00 ,50nn 4,,l5 5,135 5,370 549 Internal consumption tons (7t/l000) 28,700 31,500 34,400 36,ooo 37,600 No. of head (200kg/ head) in 1000 145 157 172 180 263 Remainder for export + fattening (in 1000 head) 180 68 111 158 337 Fattening (350 kg/head) 1/ Project I Offtake (in 1000) Pastoral modernization project development - 1,200 ha 14 20 20 Production (t) 5,000 7,000 7,000 2/ River Offtake (in 1000) 15 30 Production (t) development = 1,800 ha 5,800 10,500 Dosso Offtake (in 1000) 7 21 35 Production (t) Small irrigation works 2,000 ha 2,500 7,500 12,000 Export on the hoof No. of head (in 1000) 180 68 104 122 272 Tonnage (t) 45,000 17,CO0 26,ooo 35,000 68,000 (250 kg/ head) Total Exports (t) 45,000 17,000 33,500 50,800 97,500 10,000 NOTES TO TABLE C 1/ Channel linking Pastoral Zone I and Ekrafane + 1,200 ha River Feedlot exploiting a breed- ing herd of 82,000 head. 2/ Feedlot on the River, 1,800 ha, taking lean animals from the pastoral area. 3/ Fattening on irrigated lots under the Dosso rural development scheme. D 1 - tIGER - PROJECTION OF EXPORTS = GROUNDNUTS AND DERIVATI'VES Rate of Exchange $1 1971=278 1972=252 (Current Prices) 1073=222 i974=250 1971 1972 1973 19714 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 198L 19Rc 2. Production (lOOOt shelled) 158 140 70 140 160 170 180 190 20c 215 251 261 3. EProduction crushed (1OOOt) 65 65 130 130 130 130 1_30 130 130 130 4. Production of oil (1OOOt) 5. Exports of oil (1O0t) 10 14 30 30 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 6. c.i.f. price oil ($/t) 426 545 708 687 673 652 637 620 605 7. Costs ($/t) 77 93 98 lOh 110 116 123 130 137 8. f.o.b. price oil ($/t) 349 452 610 583 563 536 514 490 468 10. Value of oil exports ($million) 3.5 4.8 13.5 18.3 35.0 33.8 32.1 30.8 29.4 28.1 12. Production of cakes (1OOOt) 35 35 70 70 70 70 70 70 13. Exports of cakes (1000) 9 18 32 32 67 66 66 66 66 66 lh. c.i.f. price ($/t) 149 317 195 201 200 198 194 187 175 15. Costs ($/t) 61 83 88 93 98 104 109 116 122 16. f.o.b. price ($/t) 88 234 107 108 102 94 85 71 53 18. Value of cake exports ($million) 1.0 1.6 7.5 3.4 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.6 4.7 3.5 20. Exports of shelled groundnuts 93 92 75 5 10 30 4o 50 60 75 (lOOOt) 21. c.i.f. price ($/t) 249 261 381 394 392 385 377 368 355 342 22. Costs ($/t) 614 69 73 77 81 °6 91 96 102 23. f.o.b. price ($/t) (132)-/ 197 312 321 315 304 291 277 259 240 25. Value of ronutexports 2emillion) (12.2)-/18.3 23. 1.6 3.1 9.1 11.6 13.9 15.5 18.0 28. Total exports of groundnuts and derivatives ($million) 16.7 24.7 44.4 23.3 45.3 49.6 49.9 50.3 49.6 49.6 Note: World Bank price forecasts of February 1974 were revised in April and June 1974. The new forecasts slightly modify the above projections up to 197u. For the 'LIyears (1977-80) export values, under the revised price projection, would roughly n.rease by 7, 12, 20 and 25 percent res-ectivelr. NOTES TO TABLE D 1 General Note: all prices c.i.f., in current US$ prices, Liverpool. Line 2: Marketed production. Line 3: Crushed production: tied to production of preceding year. Line 5: Yield of oil 46 percent. Line 7: Costs (oil), according to SICONIGER estimate for 1972/73 - CFAF 19,500 (not including export duty of CFAF 7000/ton, +5.7 percent (world inflation). Line 13: Exports of cakes = production less estimated local consumption rising from 3000 tons 1972-75 to 4,000 tons 1976-80. Line 15: Costs (cakces) according to SICONIGER = CFAF 17,350 (not including export duty of CFAF 565/ton) for 1972 + 5.7 percent per year (the figure for costs deduced from the customs figures comes to less: $61 or CFAF 13,500 approximately). Line 20: Exports of groiindnuts: tied to production of preceding year. Line 22: Costs (groundnuts) according to SONARA information 1973 = CFAF 15,300 (rounded) + 5.7 percent per year (not including export duty of CFAF 2250/t). Note 1/ Lines 23 and 25: accordlng to customs figures: the f.o.b. price appears abnormally low, having regard to 1971 world prices. D 2 - PROJECTIONS OF EXPORTS: COTTON - CURRENT PRICES 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1984 Production 1 . Cotton seed (lOOOt) 8.3 5.2 3.0 5.0 8.0 10.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 15.0 2 . Cotton fiber (1OOOt) 1.9 1.1 1.9 3.0 3.7 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 3 . Exportation fiber k -LV0^U 14., 7 .4I 0 -9 u-a 1 -n0 r-n n 3. 3.3 3.7 3.7 4 . f. o. b. price ($/t) 735 695 990 1,585 1,234 1,179 1,101 1,043 964 950 5 * Export costs ($/t) 180 191 201 212 224 237 250 264 6 . c.i.f. price ($/t) 783 838 1,170 1,766 1,435 1,391 1,325 1,280 1,214 1,214 Value of exports ($million) 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.2 2.3 2.4 3.4 3.2 3.5 Notes to Table D 2 Line 1: Production 1971 CFDT figures 1973 CFDT estimate 1977-84 = according to CFDT project for boosting cotton production the 15,000 t (1984) and 17,000 t (1989) correspond to the total potential of 20,000 ha Line 2: Ginning yield - 37 percent Line 3: 1000 t/yr to NITEK (1972/73 level) up to 1975; thereafter 1,500 t Line 5: Estimate based on CFDT information Line 6: World Bank forecasts (January 1974) D 3 - PROJECTIONS OF EXPORTS - MEAT AND LIVE ANIMALS - CURRENT PRICES 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1984 Meat on the hoof (1000 t) 42.6 55.2 16.0 26.0 30.5 68.0 Carcasses in live equivalent 0.7 0.6 1.0 7.5 20.3 29.5 (1000 t) Total 43.3 55.8 17.0 23.0 25.0 32.0 33.5 40.4 50.8 97.5 Price per kg live weight on the hoof f.o.b. port ($/t) (162) (262) (340) (340) 357 375 394 413 434 450 472 Value of exports ($million) 6.1 8.6 9.8 13.2 14.5 18.1 24.0 D 4 - PROJECTIONS OF EXPORTS - SECONDARY AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (Current Prices) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1984 1989 Hides and skins goat (lOOOt) 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 o.6 0.6 0.9 1.C 1.2 1.2 f.o.b. price ($/t) 1000 1500 1890 1980 1050 990 1200 1290 1350 1500 Value ($million) 1.2 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 Cowpeas (lCOOt) 3.0 C.U u.8 0.8 1.0 1.5 8.3 3.2 5.0 5.5 6.3 7.5 f.o.b. price ($/t) 108 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 160 160 150 150 Value ($million) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 o.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 Fresh onions (1OO0t) 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 11.0 Price ($/t) 250 270 285 300 317 335 354 374 396 418 Value ($million) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 Dried onions (1000t) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 c.i.f. price Shipped/t/Ff (500/600/Ff) ($1170) 1500 1670 1710 Value ($million) 1.5 1.6 1.7 Fresh vegetables (1000t) 0.35 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 f.o.b. price ($/t) 1000 1057 1117 1180 1250 1320 1390 1470 Value ($million) 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 1/ 1/ Total secondary exports 2.2 1.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.8 6.1 7.1 7.8 1/ Reported exports. D 5 - TOTAL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS - CURRENT PRICES ($ millions) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1984 1989 Shelled groundnuts 12.2 18.3 23.4 1.6 3.1 9.1 11.6 13.9 15.5 18.0 Groundnut oil 3.5 4.8 13.5 18.3 25.0 33.8 32.1 30.8 29.4 28.1 Groundnut cakes 1.0 1.6 7.5 3.4 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.6 h.7 3.5 Total groundnuts 16.7 24.7 44.4 23.3 35.3 49.6 49.9 50.3 49.6 49.6 Cotton fiber 1.5 0.8 1.0 0 1.2 2.3 2.4 3.4 3.2 3.5 Animals + meat 7.1 9.8 1.0 0 6.1 8.6 9.8 13.2 14.5 18.1 Hides and skins 1.2 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 Cowpeas, onions, vegetables 1.0 0.8 0.9 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 5.3 5.9 6.3 Uncontrolled exports 5.0 7.5 0.9 2.2 ------ Total 32.5 44.5 49.7 28.2 h5.4 63.8 65.9 73.0 74.4 79.0 Index of value 100 137 152 87 1h0 196 203 225 229 243 Index of volume 166 Index of price 146 TABLE E 1 -NIGER - PROJECTIONS OF BASIC AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS - CURRENT PRICES (CFAF millions) 1974 75 76 77 7o 79 80 81 82 83 84 o5 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 1/ Productivity schemes Zinder (100,000 farms) 206 3840 (960/yr) - - 60/vr Maradi ( 80,000 " )3880 75 Dosso ( 70,000 n ) 3,3-O (672-rT - 392/yr - _ Niamey ( 90,000 " ) (h6ryr) Rice-growing eauipment 2/ 2,500ha 6,500ha 12,500ha Development of depressions +4,000ha=700 ha/Yr +6,000ha-1 200 ha/yr 3/ 2,600 = 435/yr 3,900 = 7d0/yr Rice mills +14,000t +20,000t IV 300 400 Stockpiling facilities lOO.OOOt +20,000t +20,000t i,ouu k53i)yr) 320 32u Livestock Modernization pastoral zone Zone I 870+Stk.wat,760=1,630 (Zone I +6 tock watering) (272/yr) Feedlot I- 1,200ha 1,320 (660/yr) River feedlot 1'800ha 1,980 (459/yr) Traditional fattening: Dosso 2000ha 6,000t 7T0(152/yrT Slaughterhouses - Niamey extension 145 +19 000 8010 Others MaradiZinder Tahoua 1/ Estimated according to Maradi norms: investment period CFAF 48,000 in 5 years maturation period CFAF 5,60o per year 2/ Average cost CFAF 650,000/ha 3/ Capacity 6,000 t paddy in 1974 T7/ 10 percent of cereal production: 4/5 in cooperative silos at CFAF 10,000/t 1/5 in government silos at CFAF 40,000/t, or CFAF 16,000/t on average 5/ See SEDES project / Irrigated agricultural development + livestock infrastructure evaluated at CFAF 110 million for 100 ha according to Tiaguirir6 project. / Component of the Dosso project - CFAF 380/ha for small-scale irrigation using dug wells. Note: Investment period; Maturation period; TABLE E 2 - PROJECTIONS OF BASIC AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS - CURRENT PRICES (CFAF million) 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Annual investment 1,319 2,975 3,020 3,147 3,102 3,681 4,481 3,381 3,154 2,614 Cumulative investments 1,319 4,294 7,314 10,461 13,563 17,244 21,725 25,106 28,260 30,814 Yearly average 3,087 1984 1985 E9Q6 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Annual investments 2,806 1,656 1,256 1,256 1,256 504 504 504 504 504 Cumulative investments 2,806 4,462 5,718 6,974 8,230 8,734 9,238 9,742 10,246 10,750 Yearly average 1,075 Note: 1. The apparent precision of the figures results from exact addition of the components of the program: it does not claim to be exact. 2. Figures for the second decade (1984-93) refer by construction to continuation of the basic program proposed and do not include the cost of new operations that might be undertaken above and beyond that program. 3. Figures are estimates of 1974 prices.